>> the market is going higher. it is based on my perception there is never session ahead, no credit crunch ahead, and there are still higher earnings ahead. >> we will get worried about inflation. that could brings a stock market correction at some point. >> we don't think the fed is bothered by this degree of inflation. >> equities are reasonably valued in the context of interest rates. >> it has not even started yet. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: let's wrap up the trading week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. equity futures up on the s&p advancing .05%. we have been with it all week. record high after record high. 47 all-time highs this year on the s&p. tom: i shout out to our bookings

team. in the hindsight we look like geniuses, particularly the performance yesterday of this market. vix, 15.55. remember the angst, omg, 21. we are all going to die. jonathan: we came into this year. how many times did we say they are not bullish enough? goldman sachs, 4900 year. i will catch up with credit suisse this 20. tom: what is that about? lisa: you can talk to his five producers. jonathan: i'm only down to two at the moment. this market is quite something. tom: what is interesting about the bulls is each have their own rationalization of how to get out to a higher value. jonathan: the delta variant, it is a shrug of the shoulders. lisa: on the margins you were

starting to see some caution, whether it is in the high-yield debt spectrum where it is a bit softer in terms of new sales, and in terms of oil prices. the oil equity analysts have seen the complex fall 7% since the end of june. you are seeing pockets of concern but not in the broader level. jonathan: we are starting to discriminate. we are seeing companies comfort with vaccine mandates. let's talk about it now. we caught up with dave ricks last week. at the end of the interview i asked if he made the decision about having a vaccine mandate for his staff. they have now. eli lilly and others going in that direction. tom: you saw the supreme court yesterday with that single vote saying no. indiana university, this is the way it is. jonathan: here is the direction of travel in this equity market. s&p 500, we advanced by .04%.

nasdaq futures unchanged. crude down about 25%. -- .25%. lisa: there is not that much going on. it is a sleepy friday after a lot of people solidified very good years. if you are watching data to see if something could move the needle, 8:30 a.m., import-export prices. this highlights the increasing supply chains disruptions. we saw china partially closed down. what happens next? dry bulk costs are rising to the highest level in a long time. we also get to speak with the head of blackrock investment institute. he will talk about his outlook and whether he is willing to push against this bullish sentiment. the bulls have made money and the bears have been wrong.

i confess. is there any reason to be skeptical in any way at this point? do you just succumb to this groundswell towards higher equity prices going forward? 10:00 a.m., we get a sense if the higher inflation reads how are affecting. this is key in terms of inflation expectations and whether people's optimism is whining with the increase in the delta variant. jonathan: it is a boring, snoozy friday morning. we will talk about baseball and make tom keene's morning. this is what happened yesterday in iowa. what is fascinating that for the international audience you are a member "field of dreams" back in 1989 with kevin costner. a beautiful story about a baseball team walking out of cornfields. the yankees and the white sox want to that very same place, re-created the scene, and treated the movie as if it were a nice history moment in time, a

historical moment. for me, this is not a criticism, this is the most american think i have ever seen. a moment based on a movie from 1989, but created as if it were a real life story. can you help me understand it? tom: i take your point on the commercialization of what costner and the rest invented here. i think your point. it has become bigger than life. we moved from this magnificent book all the way over to the movie. the movie was panned when it came out. lisa: i want to support this. this is the creation of american mythology. this is what america does really well. jonathan: i was cleared to say this was not a criticism. just an observation. i just thought it was very american.

you decided that carried negative connotations. i'm just saying it's very american. tom: i urge everyone to read the book. it's a wonderful short read in some ways it is better or worse than the movie. this is about a mythology of america. jonathan: great description. better or worse. more harm runs for the white sox. -- home runs for the white sox. what's happening with the yankees? tom: it is a story that time has moved on. jonathan: if you build it, they will come. great guests keep coming. tom: burt lancaster steals the show in the movie. jonathan: i look forward to doing that this weekend. dean, the complacency at the start of programs like we have done. look through all-time highs. 47 of them your today on the s&p 500.

it seems we are numb to any incoming information that tells you otherwise about this bullish story you created. what does that tell you? dean: i like the field of dreams exercise. taking a movie and making it is a real life. for the markets i like taking real events and looking back on them. it is 10 years to the week that i would call it the joint crisis between the euro zone sovereign episode of 2011 and the u.s. debt ceiling showdown occurred. for the week of this week 10 years ago, realize the s&p was 90 -- 90%. this week it is 3.5%. it goes to show you the extent to which markets can go from extremely high levels of volatility to something that really is a snooze fest. the important part about the snooze fest is it really dulls

our imagination. that causes us to be caught off guard. the linchpin of it all -- i do you host your show the real yield -- tom: nice of you to bring that up. dean: everything is linked to a -1.1 or more 10-year yield. i am very concerned that we are trusting the central banks and away that history has proven unkind to that level of trust. i go back to the early 2007 period. subprime is contained is the inflation is transitory. these mysteries should not be forgotten. they can cause market harm. tom: i want to know how vicks sits. up 22, 20 went back in july.

down under 16 today. tell me what the greek letters say, the movements of the market say about the umph to get the vix down to dare i say 13. dean: as i mentioned, real-life volatility around 3.5% is almost as if the s&p 500 is a currency, at options are not worth very much. the gravitational pull in the vix is contingent on this low level of realized volatility but it is nearly ground to a screeching halt. i had the vix florida at around 17. we have reached that -- vix flo ored at around 17. a lot of folks have worked out there will be a fireworks in august.

that has been with some regularity a month where a summer vacation got disrupted. it does not look like that will happen right now. when i step back i try to look at risk-reward. the equity market is going up, not a ton. what i worry about is this degree of complacency that it is grounded in the mispricing of nominal yields versus the rate of inflation where we are really hoping that inflation comes down. it is is very difficult to know the damage that could result should not prove transitory and bond yields react and push higher on a nominal level. jonathan: i want you to make the point. he said something -- you said inflation is transitory is a new subprime is contained. that is quite a call.

let's get the conviction call on this market. what is the call? dean: i think the call is that the valuation argument being made in equities is contingent on something we just have no idea around. the data tells us that nominal yields are so far below the rate of inflation that the fed could be in a very difficult spot. if we look at all the risk-off we've had, there have been some doozies along the way. the fed has always been there to massage the market and lifted higher. for a couple reasons. market risk and economic risk typically occur at the same time. they typically run into trouble at the same time. the fed in its revising of the economy has these policies which were quite directly on asset prices. the bigger point is the fed's air cover is that the rate of

inflation is below target. it is allowed to do much. we are in a different circumstance. the rate of inflation is well above target. if we do run into a risk-off, we have to ask ourselves, what is the fed going to do given inflation is so far above target already? jonathan: i am pleased we got you on the spot on that question. dean curnutt. tom, the line that inflation is transitory is the new subprime is contained, that is something to take note of. tom: that is the data dependency we talked about. all i can say is they are maximum it depended like we have never seen. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta.

u.s. -- authorized an actor coronavirus dose to people with weakened immune systems. they include organ transplant percipient in patients with cancer. in afghanistan, the taliban is putting pressure on the embattled national government weeks before the u.s. and its mission there. taliban forces captured two major cities. they are estimating to hold over two thirds of afghanistan. the u.s. plans to send and 3000 troops to help evacuate some personnel from the american embassy in kabul. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am really good group to. -- i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the increased tempo of the taliban nil at their engagement and the increase in violence and instability across afghanistan

is of great concern. we are further reducing our civilian footprint in kabul in light of the situation. as we have long said, we are committed to supporting afghanistan and his people. jonathan: interesting comments from the state department spoke person. an interesting moment for this administration. a big foreign policy test. good morning. here is the friday morning price action. up by 2 on the s&p. we are down by two buses points. -- two basis point. the currency pair advancing .2%. tom: moments ago, axios is reporting. "it got worse overnight." annmarie hordern, they will be meetings early at the white house on how to make this not

look like saigon of 1975. what do they do? annmarie: we see them moving on trying to extricate and get home american diplomats at the embassy. 3000 american troops are going there. but it has been like this over the past week. last weekend was critical. now that the taliban controls more than two thirds of the country the administration has been quite resolute and confirm what their decision. the president has wanted to do this for years. another has been done to train an advance the afghan military and government. it is time for american troops to come home. it is going to be messy for them, especially in the public eye. tom: i read every word from senator mcconnell. he was measured in his criticism. he did allude to saigon in 1975, same as hubert vanness photograph to the helicopter and

the exit out of what became ho chi minh city. what is the pressure here from capitol hill, or is there a silence as we try to get to monday? annmarie: i think the pressure is that they want to make sure americans to come home. it is a little more on the silent front given the fact that this was expected. tom: i agree with that. annmarie: we are shocked how quickly this has become and how quickly kabul might be taken. the fact they are sending in troops signals to me they are a little bit caught off guard and how quickly the taliban is moving forward. this is not a shock to anyone. lisa: is a discussion about reversing the call to remove almost all troops from the united states in afghanistan by the end of the month? annmarie: there are questions everyday in the press briefing but no. the president has remained

steadfast that this is the right decision to make sure american troops come home. we have been there for two decades and spent over $1 trillion. they maintained this is the right decision for the future. lisa: the spokesman for the state department said this is not abandonment. this is not an evacuation. we are in no way abandoning the people of getting anything -- afghanistan. some people might disagree. who is he speaking to? annmarie: probably our partners, the macon people, the afghani people. i imagine any of those translators. the u.s. is not just sending troops to kabul to make sure we get a personnel out of the embassy. we are sending troops to kuwait and to doha to make sure the translators that he'd visa -- occasion for helping american troops on the ground -- extrication for helping american troops on the ground. max boot said, "i am sorry.

this administration is delusional if they are thinking the taliban should want to make sure they are recognized on the international stage is going to use that and said of this force they have right now to make sure they have control of the country." tom: is the military on the same page as the president? annmarie: i don't think in public you will get the military to speak out. the military has said, especially before this happened, this will be similar to what happened in iraq. when the united states withdrew troops but had to go back in because we saw the insurgents and the rise of isis. lisa: can you put this in a broader context when the u.s. is tense in terms of its relationship with china, what the implications of losing its position in kabul is? the idea of losing its power over the taliban and al qaeda at

a time of tenuous trade negotiations between the east and west. annmarie: i think there are two things to look at. we have seen the administration completely move the focus in foreign policy towards china. that was clear with the president took his european tour to the g7, nato, and sitting down with president putin. afghanistan and its place in the world is interesting. it creates this vacuum. who now goes in? you have russia with a buildup of troops. it is something that is very useful to pakistan. china would love to have leeway straight to pakistan. this is very much of a concern for an american ally, india. i would say that they are shifting their focus away from places in the middle east, the from southeast asia where afghanistan is, and more towards china. this is clearly a place we could see the likes of china or russia want to exert influence. jonathan: thank you.

what a difficult moment for that country. i really difficult moment now for this administration. tom: if i was to talk to some of the people we have talked to over the years, general kimmitt with such great perspective. the thing i would ask is that many decades old belief in america and frankly in the soviet union of another time, that technology can win out. that has been destroyed across the territory of afghanistan. jonathan: the question for secretary blinken and the defense secretary and the president, what did they think was going to happen when they made this decision? what did they think was going to happen? tom: i will let them answer that. i am not surprised. after the rapidity of how the north vietnamese came down and across from cambodia into

saigon, the two days before that i believe it was -- the fact is when you collapse, you collapse. jonathan: the tragedy is people are not surprised. when you ask people who know more about this than i do, they are not surprised. lisa: it is such a delicate place to be. what is the ultimate goal? to win against the taliban and al qaeda. right now there is a humanitarian crisis. if you look at the people fleeing into kabul to hide from the taliban and al qaeda, it is a distressing situation. jonathan: the press secretary said they had to consider what they want their world to be in the international community. this is a terrorist organization. we are asking them what they want their world to be in the international community? tom: we will ask the question.

jonathan:jonathan: if this was the previous administration, there would be harder questions being asked. that's for sure. you are welcome to stay out of it. features unchanged on the s&p. from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: it is a nice, quiet morning. let's hope it stays that way. equity market up 2 on the s&p. 47 record highs so far year-to-date. we keep talking about that, all-time high after all-time high. in europe we have 10 of them in a row on the stoxx 600 potentially other close. let's get to the bond market. let's not let is slip. dean curnutt on this program about 25 and is ago said the following, "this moment inflation is transitory is like subprime is contained." from 15 years ago. it is so important to hear those words. here is the question. what if he is right?

what if that is the parallel here? tom: that is the worry. it pushes against the bull market case, the economy better. there is a crew out there within acuity of dean curnutt, and others who push against it. jonathan: what does this make for the bond market? unchanged on 2 basis point. let me finish on this. the anchor of the global bond market, europe, germany, italy. tom: promotion for the real yield. jonathan: it italy, the spread about 100 basis points. the italian yield about 55 to 56 basis points. cut in half from where we were in bank. tom: i know we have to get to romaine. in august and september, how the

transatlantic divide go in yields? jonathan: we talked about pushing it through the fx market. we will push it through the bond market too. 56 basis points on the italian 10-year. romaine: the big mover in the premarket is the same big mover from the post market. we spent time yesterday talking about disney. they reported earnings. relative to what the street was looking for this was what are the most impressive quarters in a couple of years. they knocked it out of the park. the reopening of the park business was a driver for the revenue beat and profitability for the company. the streaming business doing well. 150 million subscribers. the concern is the direct to consumer unit is still losing money. not clear when it will start making money. investors seem to be pleased. shares of 5% in the premarket. if that were to hold through the clothes at 4:00 p.m., this would

be one of the best days for disney going back to march. disney has been hurt by the pandemic. one of the big beneficiaries was airbnb. they made it clear the post-pandemic world for that will not be as strong as it was during the pandemic. they are posting relatively decent numbers but that deceleration of growth causing concern. shares dad about 3%. door dash also a big beneficiary. it was a bad report. they are now in double digits on the revenue side. 83% revenue growth. here's the problem. expenses doubled to $1.34 billion. that arithmetic is not going to please investors. those shares down about 4% on the day. the two big valley movers, context logic missed on both revenue and their guidance for revenue for q3. though shares down pretty significant and premarket.

28%. moving lower as we get. closer to the open virgin galactic taking a little bit of a leg down. richard branson selling $300 million worth of shares, about a 4% stake in the company. he sold $150 million back in april. pilgrim's pride, second biggest chicken producer in the u.s. is controlled by jbs. they own 80% of the company. they will buy the remainder shares. though shares up about 19% in the premarket. tom: this is important. we have a real equity we can we focused on this grateful market. let's rounded up to 4500. on bonds i have been a little off the mark. vishwanath tirupattur joins us from morgan stanley. what are you writing about this weekend for publication on monday? >> good morning, tom.

i think what we are focused on is what i would consider a mispricing in the treasury markets. we think there is a big disconnect between what the fed is telling us, the treasury market is pricing for about the pace of future rate hikes. the issue is intensive. when rate hikes start, but the pace will be. what we draw from the fomc dot plot is the hawkish -- after the first hike that what is currently priced into the market. we think that needs to correct and that means interest rates have to go higher. jonathan: where? the front end into the belly? what portion has the biggest mispriced?

vishwanath: it's in the five to 10 onwards. it is the biggest mispricing. if you look at the futures, the market is pricing under two hikes once it starts. looking at the conservative dot plot, it seems to be well over two. two to three hikes per year is what the dot plot is suggesting. that is usually not the case that the fed is more hawkish than the bond market. you need some catalyst for the market to catch up to the dot plot expectations.

those catalysts are here. the most important catalyst is the labor market. we will have pretty close to one million for the last two months, give or take. we expect that strength in the job market to continue to be there. that means we also think with the ending of the unappointed benefits in september, with the teachers coming back to school, all those things with me we will see a pickup in not only the total employment numbers but also in participation rates. economists are projecting we will get into 2020 thre -- 2023 that the unappointed levels will be below what we saw pre-covid.

lisa: if you think the treasury market is underpriced, how about the credit markets where companies are selling record amounts of debt every day? you have seen the high-yield debt market cool off with them saying it started to send a warning sign perhaps about a change in the winds. our people pricing and the robustness of the labor economy that you foresee? vishwanath: we think on the margin the spread has nowhere to go except to be slightly wider. we have seen issuance of the market that is translating to wider spreads. we think credit is still far too rosy for me. rosie is probably not the right instruction. it is far too rich for me to recommend, especially investment-grade. the high-yield, we think there

is some room here. the better valuation between investment-grade and high-yield points to high-yield. i should correct what i said earlier. i said the unappointed rate is expected to reach by the end of 2023. it is the end of 2022. lisa: that's a big difference. vishwanath: exactly and that's why wanted to correct. by the end of 2022. lisa: to wrap this altogether, the idea the fed will react to that. they will react faster than people are expecting. can the treasury yields go up in a measured way? can people reprice this idea of near-term rate hikes without disrupting the broader market in a way that is potentially going to destabilize and send the fed retracing their moves? vishwanath: one thing is possible.

we would put the fair value for the 10-year treasury or u.s. rate at 160 as a fair value. we think our year-end numbers over 180 for 10-year. it is quite possible we can get there in an orderly manner. as a result we think we have seen the lows in the 10-year for the year. jonathan: we have to leave you there. vishwanath tirupattur. this is the work being built off the team at morgan stanley. this call, the 3.3 unappointed by year end 2022, and the risk you don't get this late cycle boost to labor supply.

what does that do to dynamics? what does that mean for the federal reserve and the fed funds rate? tom: to tied it into the chat at jackson hole, maybe not the speeches or the papers. it's about the wage dynamic you talked about. the other thing i look at is the idea of when we get back to some form of normal economy and what do we do with the lofty valuations then? jonathan: i conversation lisa has been building up to. we will catch up with the head of the blackrock investment institute. a man who know something about central banking as well. equity markets up 2. s&p basically unchanged. let's call it two basis points lower. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: a divided supreme court

has cleared the way for some eviction proceedings to resume in new york. justices blocked a provision they give renters a shield when they said they were a spirits and hardship because of the pandemic. the court sided with landlord to said they have been devastated by what they contend is an unconstitutional war. hospitals in the u.s. are being pushed to the brink by the latest surge. more than a dozen states face severe personnel shortages. in texas and hawaii hospitals are building tensor extra space. in florida, the government has tapped the strategic stockpile for ventilators. antitrust enforcement should move more frequent lead to block mergers that threaten competition. it may way on a major execution by lockheed martin. the sec is investigating their takeover of aerojet rocketdyne. a second test flight of the boeing star liner could be delayed for months.

it's a setback for the show that it can safely, lightly transport people to the international space station. philip morris international has bid closer to buying a british maker. the fact that tobacco giant's offer over a lower bid. either could raise or offer further. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this reopening trade i would

argue has not started yet. >> i think the market is going higher. my bullishness is based my perception there is no recession ahead, no credit crunch ahead, and there is still higher earnings ahead. >> the outlook for this year. looking into 2022, around 4900. you have a trajectory that is higher. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. it has been a week of bulls on the program. the equity market keeps churning out all-time highs. what a move. a point or two. tom: we start framing 49,000? jonathan: yields of about a basis point or two.

you think i would get that board this summer? lisa: there's not that much summer left. jonathan: i will be off next week. tk, you got this. tom: david wilson is looking at the fusion-io are renault, he is looking at the fiat of charts. david: clear coming up on the 50th anniversary of president nixon's decision to break the tie between gold and the dollar. tom: remember that? people were screaming. david: the question is what has happened to gold over that 50-year timeframe? how does it compare to stocks? with the chart does is look at spot gold, immediate delivery relative to the s&p 500 with and without dividends. you get a very different comparison based on what you do with the s&p 500. if you look at just the index

itself, gold has been pretty competitive. you find stretches for years or gold had bigger gains. and you put dividends into the equation and it is not even close. you are talking about the s&p 500 generating almost 20,000% return. up to hundredfold. more than three quarters of that is dividends. stocks are a runaway relative to gold over that timeframe. tom: in my book years ago the best charts was from the world bank. it was such a strong chart. it was deflation is over. the idea of the dynamics of currencies and gold signaled inflation was back in this long disinflation every time. what does gold say about the ancient fear of inflation? david: given that gold has been

coming down the way it has, and if you really are concerned about inflation you have alternatives. think about the cryptocurrencies. tom: you will bring in crypto? i'm stunned. david: it is something people look at. whether it works is another story, but it is out there. look at stocks the way they have been rising over time. it goes to show that -- you can argue equities are an inflation hedge. tom: lisa, i can see with two barrels of oil when you bought that and they gave it to you at a negative price. i don't see you with bit dog in your living room. lisa: my 12-year-old talks about that. we talk about the crypto asset. it is the modern technology, the new fad. if you look at the s&p and the nasdaq, increasingly it is concentrated by the technology companies, by those that are forward thinking.

i thought that was one of the most interesting calls david was making at goldman sachs yesterday. those are leading the charge and they have so much cash that they can give back dividends and share buybacks because they don't have many employees relative to their income. how much will this discrepancy continue to widen? the companies that dominate these indexes generate such massive cash flow without necessarily a place to put it. david: that becomes a very real question when you think about alphabet. shining dividends from its outset -- shunning dividends from its outset the way warren buffett has. another exercise is to look at the biggest companies 50 years ago relative to revenue. where did they stand today? as it happens the companies are still around. we are talking about gm, exxon, ford, ge, ibm. the revenues have grown over

time but they are not the companies we are talking about anymore. it is apple and microsoft and facebook. things have clearly changed over time. it shows up in numbers like these. tom: david wilson, thank you so much. john, looking at the wei function. 12 months trailing, we are numb. jonathan: year-to-date up 19%. we make it too difficult sometimes. tom: going simpler on the numbers is great. i removing them from the triple leverage cash fund. i did about 120% last year. -- 1.8% last year. jonathan: when you say we are numb, i think you are right. we are desensitized by these all-time highs. 47 year-to-date on the s&p 500. a lot of people look to the u.k. it is a template for looking through what's happening in

america. that is what people believe. what we have seen in china is fascinating. the base case for most bulls with -- a second shot has been sent to the system. we can debate if it is large or small. given what has taken place it is clear there will be some form of ripple. lisa: if you're looking for something to be worried about, the good news is good news and bad news is good news. if you get good news, that means the economy is recovering. if you get bad news, at least the economy isn't growing too quickly, that overheat quickly on the fed will remain accommodative. you have dueling narratives that provide support to matter what happens with the economic data. you wonder whether this is a bias of traders, or people numb to the potential dangers, or this is just a reality that central banks having your back you cannot really fall that much. jonathan: we talked about this

morning. in the middle of february last year we were trading at all-time highs. even with every thing going on around us. the water torture does not get it done. the drift-drip of negative information. clearly we have not seen it with record highs again on the s&p. tom: i have been humbled so many times. i have been humbled. what i know for the anything is you can think as hard as you can. you never really see the thing coming that is coming. you certainly don't see it on a weighted basis with all your other worries. consistently that has happened. jonathan: the equity markets doing ok. the price action into friday. all-time highs. looking for another week of gains on the s&p 500. europe, 10 straight days of gains on the euro stoxx 50. the prospect of 10 straight records on a stoxx 600, that's a cyclical benchmark over in europe.

picking up again and doing nicely. tom: does premier league start this week? jonathan: it does. manchester united-leeds. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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>> market is going higher, and my bullishness is based on the perception that there is no crash or credit crunch. >> we will get worried about inflation, and that could brings a stock market correction. >> we do not think that the fed is bothered by this degree of inflation. >> it is reasonably valued. >> this reopening trade has not started yet. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good