haidi: welcome to daybreak australia. sophie: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: the top stories this hour -- back after 20 years, the taliban enter kabul as the afghan president flees in the u.s. embassy is evacuated. haidi: we are looking at key

data from japan and china where the delta variant is threatening to dampen the recovery. shery: advanced talks to buy the age he petroleum division, making it the top player in australian oil and gas. across wall street, u.s. futures under pressure after the s&p 500 finished at another record high. it was the fourth consecutive sessions of gains. still weaker than expected in the u.s. consumer sentiment, falling to the lowest level since 2011, putting pressure on cyclical stocks and tech seen as a safe haven. yields in the bond market under pressure. we also see wti extending the losses we saw in the friday session as global oil demand takes a hit. it's all to do with the university of michigan consumer data chart on the bloomberg showing how we went to the lowest since 2011 -- it was down 11 points.

and comes to the index of economic outlook for the next year, also falling to multiyear lows as we continue to see the spread of the delta variant hitting stocks and hitting sentiment across the american economy. when it comes to this stock market, it seems to be bullish across the board. we are talking about wall street being the most bullish on stocks in about two decades. this as we continue to get data that wall street analysts have been positive on s&p 500 earnings. it's the most since 2002. haidi: we see relentless stock market gains and a strong earnings season. analysts are historically a pretty optimistic bunch and at the same time, we see it creep into the crypto market. total market value of the crypto

market is above $2 trillion. we see bitcoin leading those gains and continuing to climb. shery: we also see dogecoin and other crypto assets gaining. but but we are staying there is the shocking news of taliban leaders retaking control of afghanistan. in two decades, that government disintegrating with taliban leaders marching into kabul and they have occupied the presidential palace. really quite shocking, the turn of events in just two weeks as we saw u.s. and nato forces withdrawing. haidi: it seems to have really accelerated in a matter of hours. we thought it would be days or weeks before we saw kabul for, but let's get the latest from our bloomberg editor. what comes next and how much of

that emerging security risk is going to come to the region? tony: biden administration is saying it is under control. we have to remember the u.s. went in after the september 11 terrorist attacks on new york and washington 20 years ago. that risk for now seemed to be quite under control, but that has not prevented a lot of observers in washington from warning that down the road, we have created an open flank with this u.s. withdrawal. that's not the position of the biden administration, which says or have said first of all, the risk on the ground is under control and the u.s. has the military means in a wider area to meet any such challenge should it emerge again. shery: what are the

repercussions for the rest of the world as we see u.s. rivals like china forging ties with the taliban? tony: it's an issue that has come up explicitly in washington today. some senior lawmakers, like the republican minority leader in the senate, mitch mcconnell, is saying it's a terrible blow, especially at a time when the u.s. is in competition with countries like china, which he singled out in his statement. of course, the broader backdrop is the worry about u.s. standing in a more general sense and that is a sense of concern that is very strong in washington right now. there's such a sense of shock of

how quickly this happened. haidi: what has the national reaction in? what criticism is the u.s. and their allies coming under for the acceleration of the withdrawal from afghanistan even as the situation continues to worsen there? tony: there's been muted criticism even from some of the allies. this was telegraphed and coordinated by the biden administration over a matter of months. that is true, but there were other nato countries that clearly had to follow the american lead and today, we heard from boris johnson, the british prime minister who said in so many words -- this was a long time coming and now we have to make sure afghanistan doesn't

become a breeding ground for terror again. haidi: the latest on afghanistan. you can get more on today's edition of daybreak. it's also available on mobile. you can customize your sending yet your settings -- customize your settings. we are closed in asia today, but let's see how other markets are setting up. sophie: we see futures in chicago headed for a third day of losses head of data due from japan. we get gdp reports from japan and local media reporting a deal. geopolitics our top of mind with afghanistan. in asia, we have a call for leadership to step down and malaysia over anger would be outbreak with the prime minister set to resign this monday.

in new zealand, potentially hiking rates by 25 basis points. the kiwi dollar holding and arrange ahead of that. indonesia is likely to change policy -- that country has had to consider lockdowns that have been extended to to the slow rollout for the vaccination there as well as emerging markets when it comes to their vaccine rate that we see the low 10% in indonesia and thailand. that has seen emerging equities deepen their underperformance in the past six months. we have more analysis from our terminal which terminal users can access. haidi: let's get you to vonnie quinn you has the first word headlines. vonnie: the death toll continues to soar after a 7.2 magnitude

earthquake struck off the southwest coast of haiti over the weekend. officials say more than 700 people were killed and a state of emergency has been declared. the u.s. deployed search and rescue find survivors. a tropical storm is also forecast to hit haiti in the coming hours. the canadian prime minister has called a snap election after polls indicate his liberal party has enough support to retake a majority in parliament stop he met with representatives to request parliament be dissolved. the vote is scheduled for september 8. a poll found 50% support for his handling of the pandemic. india aims to invest one $.4 trillion in infrastructure to boost economic growth. the prime minister may d argument as he laid out -- made the argument. that will help integrate

transports with the goal of cutting travel time and increasing productivity and competitiveness. the south korean president has left the door open for talks with japan in its final liberation day speech. marking its neighbors world war ii surrender. he says he is ready to work with japan on global threats, including the pandemic and climate change. in tokyo, members of the prime minister's cabinet visited a shrine that honors convicted war criminals, something south korea and china cs crossing a redline. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, katherine zimmerman joins us to look at what is ahead with the taliban set to take full control. next, the advisors capital

management ceo says stocks should continue to work their way higher. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: we are getting breaking news crossing the bloomberg. let's start with the sydney airport. a proposal coming through saying it is not in the best interest of security holders. the consortium has raised the bid before. we heard reporting that they would raise that bid to $22 billion. they are bidding for sydney airport after a lower bid has been rejected. that was reported over the weekend. the offer now bumped up to eight dollars 45, but sydney airport says that's not good enough.

the threshold the airport has suggested is nine dollars aussie per share. let's take a look at bluescope. we were awaiting some of these numbers coming through. shares trading up close to 50% year to date. we see full-year net income at one point $19 billion. that's pretty much in line with expectations and net income coming in just a little higher. that's one us trillion stock benefiting from the u.s. infrastructure boom. finally, taking a look at lemley, we see the distribution per security of 12 us trillion cents. that's 222 million aussie. shery: we are now seeing the impact of that earnings season. very strong in the u.s..

a record high for sessions of gains in our next guest says while the reopening trade has stalled, it's likely to prove temporary. chuck lieberman joins us now. great to have you with us. this -- the record highs in the u.s. and across the world coming at a time when activity is light in the summer. what would drive stocks next? charles: we just got earnings for the second quarter and they blew through estimates. the analysts revising their estimates higher, that might provide good support for stock prices, but vaccinations should help. we have seen a surge in the pandemic in the u.s., but it may be rolling over following the track of the u.k.. -- following the track of the u.k. there are a bunch of things out

there that could help. shery: what are you expecting from jackson hole? we've been looking forward to that meeting but with markets continuing to see record highs, some are not expecting much movement. charles: that is a tough call because we've seen the discussion taking place in the federal reserve break out into the public domain. the fed should be tapering its bond purchases immediately or very soon, others would prefer to wait. it seems like they are having quite a bit of disagreement about that. i think another employment report should be definitive in pushing the fed over the edge in reducing its bond buying. but that won't come until the first week of september, so after jackson hole. i don't know if there will be anything significant that comes out of jackson hole.

an agreement regarding the tapering soon. haidi: when you look at the optimism, does it feel like investors are assuming this is a month to live with covid even though -- even though there is the delta variant? charles: doctors have told us we will be living with covid indefinitely. that may not be as horrible as it sounds. we will have new vaccines designed to deal with the delta variant and we have seen it is not causing a surge in deaths the way it is causing a surge in cases. similarly, hospitalizations have not surged the way cases have. clearly, doctors have learned something here. the vaccines are very powerful

and very effective. we will be living with covid indefinitely and will probably be part of the normal flu vaccine people get toward flu season. haidi: the infrastructure package -- are there investable strategies that come out of that at this stage? charles: quite a few. there are a lot of companies in infrastructure one way or another. cement companies, steel companies, it's a perfect example. i think the broader impact is this adds more stimulus in an economy that's doing extremely well. one could make the case the economy is doing excessively well. it gets back to our we are -- are we going to play -- are we

going to pay a price in terms of higher inflation. there is a second package behind infrastructure package and the infrastructure package may be held up to make progress on the second social service type of infrastructure package. there's a lot to be determined. shery: you are not worried about the latest university of michigan consumer sentiment numbers? charles: actually not. there are some statistics that count a lot that are worth a lot, they're very informative and there are some that are not. sentiment indicators in the u.s. , consumer confidence in particular, have a horrible track record of forecasting economic it to be. i think the market overreacted dramatically in response. shery: we still finished at a record high. chuck lieberman, thank you very much for joining us.

we do have breaking news -- we are hearing hyatt hotels will be bodying apple leisure from kkr for $2.7 billion in cash. this is news bloomberg reported earlier -- that bloomberg has confirmed from news reported earlier from dow jones. the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2021. more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: woodside petroleum is believed to be in talks to buy hp petroleum division. paul allen joins us with more.

expectations are growing they are looking to sell off those assets, so what are we looking at? paul: this is a report that spoke to people familiar with the matter. shares will be offered for that business and those shares will be passed to shareholders. the talks are ongoing, but there is nothing agreed and we haven't had official comment from either side at this stage. it's not a huge surprise. there have been rumors something like this would happen. they have been pressuring bhp for some time. bhp will have something to say when they release results to borrow and we might hear a little more than. shery: bhp's petroleum division is still profitable. why look to sell now?

paul: it does make money. it has assets in australia, trinidad, to blago, -- trinidad, tobago, but some of those assets, particularly the australian ones are getting older now. when you combine that, they say they are looking to get out of this before becomes impossible to get out of it. this would make woodside the biggest player in this space, but we did see when rumors began to circulate that there was some concern that company might need to raise funds to get this deal done. we will sit back and wait for official comment from both companies now. shery: here's a quick check of the latest business flash

headlines. police investigating an alibaba employee sexual assault allegation against her boss say they have found no allegation of rape. the former manager was suspected of committing indecency. they have been held for questioning and a case is still being investigated. the nikkei newspaper says 90 japanese companies including toyota and nissan will form a consortium to prevent cyberattacks on vehicles. the alliance includes microsoft's japanese unit, panasonic and enzo. the partnership aims to lower costs, especially for fall or -- smaller suppliers. t-mobile is investigating claims of a data breach set to involve -- said to involve personal data for more than 100 million people. they are investigating a post that claims to be selling the data, including social security

numbers and drivers license information. the seller obtained the data from t-mobile servers and is selling it for six bitcoin. haidi: let's take a look at how we are setting up when it comes to the start of this trading week. this is where we are when it comes to new zealand at the moment. an account of a lot of data coming out of china as well as japan gdp numbers. kiwi stocks up at the last trade. futures muted in sydney, chicago and nikkei futures off by .3%. investors are awaiting key chinese numbers, taking a look at how the delta virus strain is impacting the recovery from the pandemic. we see very little change when it comes to the dollar in early

trading but we had a strong lead for the u.s. on friday, another record high despite a drop in consumer sentiment. shery: coming up next, the taliban continued to take full control of afghanistan. we talked about the implications for al qaeda as well as the region's political balance. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: you are watching daybreak australia. here's a look at some of the key events this week in u.s. -- we are watching for findings from hedge funds and u.s. retail earnings begin with walmart among the first report on wednesday. we get the fomc meeting and thursday, we will be keeping track of $.10 event happening at its fremont facility. sophie: a big week ahead in the asia-pacific. we expect a lot of data out of china, including retail sales

and production for july. we have japan second-quarter gdp numbers. tuesday, we have china's top legislative body with a three door -- three day closed-door session. haidi: some big guests on bloomberg tv, including the bluecoat ceo. plus the philippine central bank governor. shery: we are watching the geopolitical process. taliban leaders have marched into kabul prepared to take full control of afghanistan two decades after they were removed by the u.s. military. too many, images of helicopters over kabul where an echo of the american departure at the end of the vietnam war. but u.s. trade state antony blinken rejects the analogy. >> this is manifestly not

saigon. we went to afghanistan 20 years ago with one mission in mind, and that was to deal with the people who attacked us on 9/11. that mission has been successful. shery: let's bring in catherine zimmerman, whose work focuses on global terror groups. great to have you with us. in the latest developments be described as anything other than victory for the taliban? catherine: i it's quite clear the taliban have won this war. they took 20 years to do it and they have driven their strategy of patients will outlast the united states. look at their rhetoric -- they are talking the same way that they defeated the soviets and then even the english back in the 1900s. shery: what does this mean for afghanistan and for the rest of the region?

katherine: we will see the taliban try to masquerade as a legitimate actor. that would be a mistake. this is the taliban government. it's no different than it was in the 1990's. it has not changed its objectives. we will watch them try to reinstitute islamic law and probably move slower than they did before, but when we are talking about what the taliban wants, that vision has not changed. that means we have the potential for an al qaeda safe haven now in afghanistan. haidi: what are the regional implications when it comes to chinese interests? katherine: the regional implications are going to continue to rebound. the united states no longer has a presence in the region and we are looking at chinese, iran, pakistan, even russia trying to rebound in the region as the u.s. and frankly nato drawdown

and see their influence. haidi: president biden has long said the objective was never nation building. 20 years, this campaign. what would have been the outcome and is that a reasonable statement to have made, to make this exit? katherine: it is a reasonable statement to make. the united states did not go into afghanistan to build a nation, it came into hope those responsible for 9/11, and that was the taliban and al qaeda. the truth is the united states never beat the taliban and never said conditions for return. we are talking about having achieved our objectives come i don't think we ever did. we got close to defeating the taliban and never but insufficient resources to do it. we let the civil war get out of hand and did not have a

strategy, there were many different ones over the past years, to win the war we were trying to fight. haidi: you speak to people who have been following this campaign and many will point to not just failures along the way but the miscommunication of these failures. does it come as a surprise to anyone who has been monitoring the situation that we've gotten to this point? it feels like the american public were told that a lot of points along the way that things were going very well. katherine: i think for the public, it is surprising to see how quickly afghanistan fell to the taliban and it's surprising to analysts who have watched the country. but, in terms of how well the war was going, that's a reckoning in terms of the media and policy officials in achieving our objectives. for those staring at the country , they could read to be on the lines and see they were

positioned to return. amid all the warnings, there's always been a sense the taliban could come back if the u.s. were to leave, and frankly, the president decided we needed to get out of afghanistan regardless of the cost. shery: there has been a lot of finger pointing going on. listen to a former secretary of state mike pompeo had to say. >> it looks like the biden administration has failed in the execution of its own plan. this reminds me of when we have seen previous administrations allow embassies to be overrun. it looks like there's a bit of neck -- a bit of panic. we were going to have a space to think about how to drawdown our forces and we delivered on that promise. haidi: and yet we have seen that

president was struck between president trump and the taliban that ignored the afghan government. how did we get here? katherine: there's a lot of finger-pointing to be done, regardless of whether you agree with the decision to withdraw, it's clear the plan was not done well. it did not account for the risks. if you look at how we got here, president trump started negotiating with the taliban to pull the united states out. the deal was upheld by the united states. the taliban never upheld its part of the bargain. the key part was breaking ties with al qaeda. the biden administration came in and blew past the deadline for withdrawal but decided to stay with the deal, citing the risk to american lives if we did not. the mistake was not looking at the conditions and not understanding adding a bit of a delay to get past the summer fighting season could have allowed our partners in afghanistan to contest the

taliban's offensive. haidi: katherine's and women, we appreciate your time. let's get you to first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: in other news, sinovac is seeking approval on a vaccine specifically targeting the delta variant of the coronavirus. the drugmaker is looking for a green light before october. the companies general manager touted its two dose regimen as remarkable in reducing risk from the delta strain. china has reported 20,000 new covid cases for a second straight day. protesters have been calling for the prime ministers resignation as experts warn cases made

double by next month. a malaysian cabinet minister says the prime minister told his party plans to resign on monday. he has resisted repeated calls to step down since taking power in march, 2020 and has not replied to calls seeking comments on the claim. a resignation could fuel further political and economic challenges in a country hard-hit by the pandemic. a chinese actor is facing a backlash after a photo of him posing at a shrine in tokyo went viral. china's association of performing arts is calling for a boycott, saying actors should strengthen their knowledge of history. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. sophie: coming up, a look ahead to peak earnings season. we get a preview just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

sophie: time for morning calls ahead of the trade of the day. fomc meeting -- on the verge of raising your to date gains. the quant strategy team taking stock of the summer vibes. the model continues to suggest a large dollar position. pulling up the chart, turning to new zealand, the shadow board has called for tightening on the overheating economy. they are expecting the first hike in seven years. it's not just about cost pressures and labor shortages but strong demand. a 50 point move would not the entirely unprecedented. taking a look at marking -- at market pricing -- that may not

spark gains for the kiwi dollar. haidi: amid lockdowns, stroll you is reporting switching into high gear. a quarter of a access to hundred companies listed. our guest says she's expecting upsides to outweigh any downsides. despite a lot of us, including you and i in places where there are widespread lockdown conditions and covid restrictions, it doesn't feel like it's being felt across the corporate sector. guest: not quite. this year, we are expecting growth of 35% and looking pretty positive, around 20% or so. going forward, we've heard around 15% of companies so far,

so good. it will be around capital management and share buyback. haidi: where are you seeing exceptional strength and, as we've seen with the earnings season in the u.s., there's been lots of positivity with the numbers. a lot of companies have fallen short with regards to guidance. where are you seeing that vulnerability here? guest: i would say the earnings season is slightly different. previous lockdown winners and losers will repeat and that will be different from consumer demand. mining, overall asx earnings, we

are all eyes on them, with majors close to 90% of earnings given that there balance sheets have been cash rich. shery: will dividends and buybacks be able to offset prices from iron ore prices slumping and imports from china slumping? guest: we see a little bit of a slowdown in china. but in terms of production, that tends to peak in may and rolloff in the winter months. in addition, we've seen tension, but that does not hold back the investment china has committed to infrastructure spending. having said that, while we might keep getting closer to demand, given the lockdown and shortages

and what's happening, the expected production increases they were expecting for the second half of the year will be less than expected. our view is as long as iron ore prices stay around one p5 -- around one to d5 for this year in the following year, this should keep the balance sheets there, which should support these prices. shery: here in the u.s., we see consumer confidence start to take a hit given the spread of the delta variant and peak growth concerns. are we starting to feel that in australia? how will that impact the retail sector? guest: over the last week, we saw business and consumer confidence fall. but this is a product of the

environment. the lockdown here in australia, the -- it is pretty strict. while the cycle might be longer, we are of the expectation that confidence will pickup in we must remember vaccinations are the key differentiator. we are going to get one million extra doses of the pfizer vaccine targeted in places where incidences of covid are higher. that is going to support the confidence and that should go hand-in-hand with consumer demand, once restrictions are eased. haidi: i went to end with a question on asg -- focused on green energy and green stocks as the government seems to be dragging its heels when it comes to admission commitments.

guest: that will take some time. we saw a recent report that came out loud and clear that action needs to be taken but different elements and priorities at this stage, we are getting there. but i think all energy is focused on the vaccinations. shery: great having you on. don't miss our interview with mark rebello coming up later. plus we will be speaking to the aussie minerals ceo and the newcrest mining ceo. we have a busy week. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio and hear more from the big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪

>> there are a fresh new round in the nation, parts being closed, it's hard to transport things. that's going to have an impact on the supply side, making the supply problem even worse. keep an eye on the supply side.

it's not just a demand issue, it's more important a supply issue. haidi: that was mohamed el-erian discussing the global supply chain and the ceo of ginkgo shipping reaffirming port congestion will worsen due to shutdowns caused by covid outbreaks. he told bloomberg that will lead to higher freight rates. >> with specific container ports, it's not something we call but i know that terminal is being bypassed for other terminals. what that does is it creates port congestion, which we all have been dealing with during covid. i see that increasing, which will have the effect of pushing freight rates higher, weathered dry bulk or on the container side. >> good morning.

i'm curious as to what the current situation is. how long are ships being stuck outside ports? how long are they taken -- taking to unload and load? where the bottleneck? >> it is globally. you can look at whether it is shipping iron ore from brazil to china, you see congestion both in brazil -- much heavier congestion in china. in some cases, we are waiting 20 to 30 days to discharge and iron ore card. you also see it in australia because what has been put in place is not only a slower port situation, but there are also quarantines. when a ship arrives in australia, it has to be away from a port for at least 14 days. sometimes, particularly if you are refueling in singapore, you may have to wait a few days just

to get into the lineup. this is pushing freight rates up and shipping costs up. >> rates are going higher and higher. how long do you expect that to continue and how high could we see the cost of shipping go? >> that is always the big question. i can tell you in dry bulk, we are entering into a seasonally strong time. covid or no covid, the second half of the year, third quarter, early fourth quarter, you see more iron ore being shipped from brazil. brazil usually ships any percent more iron ore in the second half of the year than the first half. there's a lot of seasonality occurring. the other aspect unique to dry bulk as we have a very low order book. it's a historically low order book in terms of the number of ships that we will be delivering

over the next three years. only 5.9% of the overall fleet. there's definitely growth in demand, elevated congestion, but also a very favorable supply situation. there are just not a lot of new ships coming online over the next few years. >> there are indications the chinese authorities would like to slow down the domestic steel industry. are you seeing evidence of that? >> i think we are seeing a little bit of that. i will go into a seasonal trend. you see scale production slowdown from november through february. that normal seasonal. they do it for environmental reasons in the winter months, but you see slower construction activity. there is not a direct correlation in the steel industry and iron ore.

we still see a lot of iron ore imports. haidi: the janco shipping ceo speaking there. let's get you the check on the latest business flash headlines. woodside may offer shares for bhp for the entire petro business to be passed on to bhp shareholders and ensuring that change of control. bhp was considering an exit from fossil fuel. for sydney airport rejected a takeover offer from a group that -- group of investors. it is up from the previous bed. the board unanimously concluded the bid continues to undervalue sydney airport and is not best interest of shareholders. bloomberg has learned that hyatt tells plans to buy apple leisure group for to put $7 billion,

including debt. a deal could be announced on monday for the company currently owned by kkr. it is a sign of optimism about a return of vacation travel despite the pandemic. shery: coming up, martin lycos from a core management joins us. and in economics professor and former doj monetary policy board member. we will talk about the prospects for that economy in japan. that's it for daybreak australia. daybreak is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ haidi: hello and welcome to "daybreak: asia." sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. shery: good evening from world headquarters in new york, i am shery ahn. back after 20 years, the taliban enter couple after the president leaves in the u.s. embassy is