>> the anxiety around the taper, we think it will be a tantrumless taper. >> the federal reserve will have to start tapering. >> the headwind today is definitely supply chain and getting goods into the u.s.. >> there is no place else to go. you have to be in equities. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene.

the world fixated on the airport at kabul. much in this hour on afghanistan and always looking at the economics we start each morning with. jon, your observation on a tumultuous morning for the white house. jonathan: whether you are an armchair general, a seasoned veteran, or policy expert in the middle east you're asking the same question about afghanistan. how quickly did this happen and how did we not realize it would happen this fast? tom: we have richard haass with us from the council on foreign relations earlier. we are thrilled to bring you in the next 15 minutes thomas barfield of princeton, the definitive expert in america on the culture and fabric of the afghanistan with the taliban takeover this morning. contained market reaction. jonathan: all-time highs into monday.

the one relevant question we need to ask for our audience repeatedly is whether this overwhelms the domestic policy objectives of this administration, whether they become increasingly distracted by the crisis abroad. that is the number one question. there were big spending plans coming together. the attention now is firmly elsewhere. tom: your thoughts on the changes in washington as we go through monday lisa:? lisa:it is a credibility issue because of bidens words of what would happen versus what did happen. much credibility does he have at a time of great uncertainty with the domestic economy. tom: the debate right now is when will the president speak to the nation. lisa: we have heard he is planning to speak in the next couple of days. he is trying to parse through all of the information. how soon he needs to speak, what does he need to say. a lot of the public support has been behind withdrawing troops support.

how much will he let these images pass and let it clear before he gives an address? tom: the market speak of relative stability. the vicks 17.18. any erosion. i do not want to oversell that. jonathan: the bond market is doing nothing. settling around 1.27. on the equity market, we are softer, down .4% on the s&p. off the back of four days of gains in the s&p 500. all-time high after all-time high in the u.s. equity market up the back of solid earnings in the united states of america. tom: let's get to the discussion. we will focus on setting up your end of august into the end of the third quarter. no one better to do that than with someone managing real money. noelle corum is at invesco. what is interesting, you're in the crosshairs, the hardest part of the market, intermediate

bonds. what are you doing on the duration bat right now as you by portfolio mandates are caught in the crossfire of this market. noelle: on the duration mandate, we are staying largely close to neutral. it makes sense to have a bit of a steepener as you have more multi sector accounts. from the duration standpoint and our intermediate bond fund we are close to neutral. we would recommend for high-yield portfolio managers to add defensive or other growth related asset managers to add defensive assets like intermediate bond funds are investment grade because there are a lot of uncertainties. the bond market is not reacting. it is because we are waiting on the fomc minutes and the big taper debate on timing.

jonathan: we are starting to see discrimination in terms of credit quality at the degree to which you are exposed to things like the delta variant. is that encouraging? is that a healthy sign the credit market is functioning that way? noelle: the earnings season was very healthy. earnings growth was very strong. where that strength came in was bifurcated. we expect overall earnings growth to continue in the leveraging continue. the delta variant we have to watch closely. we did not see it impacting our base case for growth. the most impact has been the supply disruption from it. that is something we have to watch closely. the demand is still there. ultimately that flattens the trajectory of growth but does not necessarily take it away. jonathan: does it -- lisa: does it make sense that high-yield bonds are underperforming investment grade? noelle: yes, for most of this

year, high-yield bonds have done well. ccc's have done well. premium of a new issue has -- premium and new issue has not necessarily been attractive. that is why we are seeing some of the scale back in high-yield bonds. lisa: mark howard was on the show earlier and he says right now there is no problem, you can keep leading into risk, but longer term we are setting ourselves up for any qualities within the market. potential bubbles, particularly with respect to certain credit borrowing. what is your sense of that? do you agree this will become a serious problem in a couple years? noelle: this is something we definitely have to watch and could be a problem in a couple years. what we are watching over the next three to six months after we get the taper announcement out of the way, whether or not

it will be a taper tantrum and whether we learn from history is up for debate. in the next three to six months we want to stay nimble. that is when the fit hikes start to get price did. that is when the market turns to focus on the actual fomc mandate. employment coming down. whether or not inflation will be transitory and how sticky those components will be. jonathan: walked me through your approach with that in mind. what is it? noelle: right now i have a floating rate that takes down some of your exposure to high-yield because you are still getting compensated. the demand in technicals is still strong. the demand in floating-rate and investment-grade and some crossover in high-yield. it makes sense to diversify. i am selling the diversification picture because it does make sense. there is value to be had in the

floating-rate. jonathan: conviction about the future, conviction about higher rates are a hedge we might get them? noelle: i think we will see higher rates from here. it will be messier. over the next several weeks we have a lot of uncertainties that will be something to watch. if we get past the taper and it is quiet, i expect the rates to continue to steepen out because we do continue to expect growth to be robust. that will push the curve steeper. tom: what is the goal over the next three to five years? is it to clip the coupon or can you find total returns? noelle: you can find total return but it will be on a sector basis or a specific bond basis. over the next three to five years -- when we get into the five-year scenario it is hard to

call that far out. the ultimate goal would be to clip the coupon, add where there is value and complacency within markets and complacency within sectors. jonathan: have to leave it there. noelle corum, invesco portfolio manager. discussing the federal reserve, we will hear from the federal reserve chair jerome powell next week in jackson hole. we will also hear from him tomorrow at 1:30, hosting a town hall discussion with educators. tom: what you think? jonathan: i don't know. it depends what the questions are. the chairman will respond to questions asked by participants who will join the event virtually from across the country. we know this chairman is committed to full employment. he has become very dovish around the labor market. it would have been difficult for him to sound different on a forum like that one. tom: did we learn anything in

research this weekend about the separation of taper from rate change? jonathan: i think president kaplan has push that quite aggressively. even the less dovish matters of the federal reserve are saying this is what we want to taper, this is what we do not want. a discussion about higher interest rates. i've heard that repeatedly. tom: to jackson hole. the information flow to jackson hole 10 days from now, it is a mystery. they have to see with the information is in the next 10 days, including retail sales. jonathan: neel kashkari came out and spoke to our colleagues and said it is not going to be one report, it might be more than does go before i give the green light. his view might not be that decisive, but many people think perhaps it will take more than september 3 to seal the deal. lisa: the fact we are even talking about this, how many reports they need shows the emphasis on jobs.

i will say when tom asks about reading over the weekend, i thought morgan stanley's andrew sheets was interesting. it issued a report saying a borrower not a lender be. it is a good time to borrow, which is typically a bad side for the lenders. lead into equity and away from bonds. this has been the theme amongst 70 reports were looking out at low rates. jonathan: don't you find that a bit simplistic? lisa: yes. jonathan: andrew sheets not getting involved in the forecast come the idea that what has been good for the borrower has been good for the lender of last year. lisa: it goes to the question of how long can goldilocks continue? at what point do we get the faster growth the borrowing is aimed at that will disrupt this low rate trade. jonathan: andrew i know you're watching. i am not telling you simple. equity futures down 16. on radio and tv, this is

bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the taliban are taking full control of afghanistan does go decades after they were ousted by the u.s. military. the troops moved into kabul yesterday and took over the presidential palace. the american backed president fled the country. chaos at kabul's international airport. thousands of people rushed to exit the country. at least five people were killed as people try to forcibly enter planes departing. president biden is expected to make remarks on it deanna stan soon. in haiti -- is expected to make reports on afghanistan s oon. in haiti, the u.s. deployed search and rescue teams to help find survivors trapped in the rubble. tropical storm grace is set to

hit haiti today. the world may never reach herd immunity, the promised land where the coronavirus stop spreading exponentially because enough people were protected. there was hope that the pandemic would fate once roughly 70% of the population was vaccinated. new variance like delta now move the bar for herd immunity to the impossibly high level. the u.s. government is reportedly opening a formal investigation into tesla's autopilot system. authority site a number of collisions with park emergency vehicles. shares are lower. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if anything, it is worse. now it is had a chance to regroup.

it now has access to american arms and it has proven its resilience. the opposition in afghanistan it is weaker than it was. it is as bad. no sign of any mellowing by the taliban. jonathan: the taliban in 2021. that was richard haass on the council for relations. from your city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are down 17 points on the s&p. negative .4%. yields lower about .5%. jumping -- by around half a basis point. data out of china. downside surprise. crude is lower, $66.50. down about two dollars on the session. tom: what we tried to do, john, lisa, and i are committed to bringing you the expert.

on china the expert is jonathan spence and his classic the search for modern china. what is the search for modern china for afghanistan? it is thomas barfield holding court in anthropology at boston university and plight -- and president of the american institute for afghanistan studies. his book of cultural and political history, this is the absolute singular one volume on the real afghanistan. professor barfield, thank you for joining us. i must ask of the people of your institute, are they safe in afghanistan? thomas: we don't know. my director got out to delhi last week and we are trying to move our staff there. they have visas, but all air traffic is gone. they are in safe houses in kabul , but we are watching to see what will happen. tom: just because of time have

to get to the advanced moment as we wait to hear from the president in the coming hours or days. is there a risk of a sunni she a civil war among the tribes you're an expert on, including the taliban and their dominance versus to the west, their relationship with iran. thomas: probably not because the hazars are too weak to take on a central government and they are in the center of the country. they do not border iran. difficult to run in a surge it's -- difficult to run in insurgents. tom: is this the same tele-brand from 20 -- is this the same tele-brand -- is this the same taliban from 20 years ago? thomas: that is what everybody is waiting to see. their opposition to photographs and television in the 1990's, now they are very media savvy.

there problem is they have taken over the country, how do you govern it? they lack the capacity to govern. the question is what kind of compromises are they willing to make to keep the country functioning so they can have their ideology and not devolve into a civil war. lisa: that is where i wanted to go. i wonder if you could elaborate. i am reading reports of civil servants not showing up to work because they were worried about the taliban. the taliban says come back to work, try to restore confidence. they did not come back to work and then they started to take a harder line and people started to come back out of fear. the reports highlight the difficulty in rolling out of fear. you see any sign for the taliban is adjusting strategy or trying to consolidate power behind a ruler who can impose some sort of discipline, or also some sort of respect in the population. thomas: we do not know who the

taliban ruler is. one of the things we are looking for is what is the taliban government? in the 1990's mullah omar never came to kabul. he ran afghanistan out of his bedroom. the other thing is if you go back come afghanistan has seen these transitions before. when the soviet regime fell, essentially the bureaucrats went to work for the marker shy dean -- for the merger dean -- for the murajadeen. i've never being in the shower when i wanted some to stick it -- some statistics -- he said they serve whatever and he got what statistics you want.

we are watching. it is unknowable because it has happened so fast. tom: thomas barfield, there is a professor at boston university who has sacrificed his son to these wars. the distance is can we export liberal democracy? have we learned a final lesson in this debacle we cannot export liberal democracy at the risk of our soldiers and at the risk of our debt and deficit? thomas: i would say probably not. we probably learned the lesson for the next 10 years, but it is like the british who got badly burned in the first anglo afghan war and said they would never go back and in 1880 they re-invaded and then decided it was not a good idea and went back after. countries, like people, things

fade, and sometimes do not remember the things they should. tom: are the taliban tribal? your definitive work is the anthropology of afghanistan. it is the taliban part of the tribes you write about? thomas: no. that is one of their advantages. they are not tribal. they can bring all of these tribes that would otherwise be rivals and they call for unity in the name of god. the taliban in the 1990's was the first government in afghan history ruled by mullahs. the advantage they had was they could say we do not represent private regional interest. -- we do not represent tribe and regional interest. it was surprising because i was looking at the interviews, they took the north first. the afghani regime had to do

something really bad to alienate the north so they were willing to ally with the taliban. it is not tribal. jonathan: a much-needed level of detail from thomas barfield. professor of anthropology at boston university and president of the american institute for afghanistan studies. a degree of detail that has been lacking more recently and a blessed couple of decades as well. tom: the detail is of the tribes of afghanistan. if you can put the book cover up again, i would appreciate it. afghanistan: a cultural and political history. we are gifted that barfield can write in english. it is amazing how that is. you get a frontline academic who can actually tell a story. barfield delivers. jonathan: i've read some tom keene in the past as well. have you read some tom keene?

would you describe that is english? lisa: i would describe it as tom keeneisms. jonathan: equity features down 17 on the s&p. coming up, christopher marangi. tom: what happened to arsenal? ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. one hour away from the opening in new york city. -.4% on the s&p. a sprinkle of economic data. let's get some of it with michael mckee. michael: looking at the empire manufacturing index because it is the first real-time number we have gotten based on august. it is not good news. the empire index falls to 18.3. that is down from 43 last month, which was a record high. a major drop in manufacturing in august. the other number we watch with this is prices paid, prices paid falls to 76.1 to 76.8. not a lot of change in the

inflation picture. new orders fall to 14.8 from 33.2. it does suggest a drop. everyone is watching the employment report. employees falls to 12.8 from 20.6. how bad is this? if you leave out the month of june, it is the lowest since march. we are seeing numbers comparable to earlier in the spring when the economy was just getting going. this is a big falloff in the empire index. tom: out of the buffalo shop of the new york fed, 200 manufacturers, they typically get 100 responses. we will base our analysis of fed policy on the 100 manufacturers coming out of a group that is just worried about the bills preseason? michael: the bills are doing ok. that has not affected confidence. people watch this because there's a correlation with the national ism numbers and we get

philly fed later this week. we want to see what kind of impact there has been from the covid delta variant and right now this is as good as we got. lisa: can you extrapolate out what the correlation is if there is a correlation in the slow down the labor market progress? michael: particular for manufacturing, you can make the slowdown story. we get industrial production for july later this week. we have supply chain problems. now is the china numbers get bad, it is likely we will see more supply chain problems and we are seeing the ongoing chip problems and now oil prices will be going down. do we see the kind of growth the fed wants to see? that is what markets have to figure out. you do not trade heavily on the empire index, but if you want to trade on bad news -- jonathan: we traded heavily on friday. tom joked about the respondents

in the survey, let's talk about the respondents in friday's survey. michael: a lot of people think that is maybe an outlier because it does not match up with the conference board. it still was scary in terms of retail sales. retail sales for july are expected to have fallen. maybe things are slowing down a bit. the question is how does it affect hiring and what does the fed think? jonathan: retail sales tomorrow morning. michael on the latest data. another downside surprised. equity features down .4% on the s&p. the treasury market unchanged. it is the move in commodities that gets your attention. prude, 66.42, down 3%. we were lower off of the back of weaker than expected chinese data and then you get it from the american side as well. tom: $66.41 and $68.68 on those

two key oil prices. we will digress with christopher marangi on where the value is right now. where is the value going into september of 2021? christopher: is harder to find that a year ago but there is still value in the market. the question is is now the time to jump back and reflation trade if you have missed it? typically, yes, there are some areas that were exuberant and have now corrected. we still like areas like live entertainment. we think it will come back strongly this fall into next year, as well as the consumer impulse to purchase is still there. as we heard from mike mckee, supply chain issues constraining the ability to meet them. tom: you need to understand the secret weapon of christopher marangi's all of the manila

folders he has over his left shoulder covering every company out there. what is the knowledge base you have right now company to company? you have a confidence in what you're hearing or is it a mystery for you into next round of conference calls? christopher: we do not put a lot of weight into things like the empire index. we listen to what companies are saying on their conference calls. it is free much universally the demand is there, it is hard to meet demand. supply chain issues affecting not just manufacturing companies but services companies who cannot get the stuff installed in homes, and one concern is that could worsen as the rest of the world, china and asia in particular, deal with the delta variant. lisa: how concerned are you about margin pressures? this seems to be a dividing factor between the bulls and the bears. list bullish for u.s. equities. christopher: we love companies

that have pricing power. we have always focused on those companies, companies that control scarce resources, whether that is broadband, consumer branded products, waste collection. they have been able to take price and passive of that price through and maintain margins. it will be hard. a lot of companies benefit in the first and second quarter from the tailwinds of cutting costs deeply a year ago. now those costs will start coming back. it is something we are watching and we are concerned about. lisa: i know you are focused on value. right now we are hearing a bifurcation from those who said it is time to keep leading into the cyclical trade, and others who say stick with big tech, stick to some of these names that have incredible amounts of cash in relatively small staff compared to the overall revenue. where do you weigh in on this and why?

christopher: i lean towards the former. there are a few specific big tech names, google in particular, that benefit both sides. there a row opening -- they are a reopening play in the quarantine play. you have to look company by company and not just make judgments about individual sectors. tom: that's good. let's vivid judgment about one of the wheel houses over the years, this entertainment streaming, telephone, cell phone infrastructure. when you guys are upfront about what john malone wrought, where are you now on all of the stuff we use every day? christopher: we defined the world in distribution versus content. that is a bit of a fake break, but we still think distribution

is very important. broadband companies have pricing power. the result will beat -- the worries always will be what does the government do about that? the infrastructure bill is probably a net positive for the broadband companies and that it funds additional buildout and gives additional customers. the regulatory sort of damocles is out there and the biden administration seems to be swinging that more aggressively lately. the question of what happens with theatrical and the streaming worst continue. the second quarter all of the streaming services did better than everyone expected. that is probably going to change. at some point the consumer will have too many services to choose from. lisa: you mentioned policy, and i want to end where we began with afghanistan and how much it does put a kink into president biden's ability to push through his policy, let alone the bipartisan bill that has $550

billion in spending. how are you looking at trading on this in any way? christopher: when it became probable biden would get elected we anticipated higher tax rates that goes into our company models. we have not seen that just yet. there'll have to be paid force in the reconciliation and tax rates are going to go up. they will probably go up less than we expected a year ago. that is sort of a plus. this is going to put additional pressure on inflation, and we mentioned afghanistan, probably some additional defense spending and a risk premium in general has to go up. jonathan: christopher greinke, back in the office -- christopher marangi back in the office. good to see you will stop later

we will catch up with lori calvasina on bloomberg tv on the open in about 20 minutes. tom: we have not talked enough about this, we've been so distracted with afghanistan. you talk about christopher moran gate -- you talk about christopher marangi back in the office, what is the office dynamic? jonathan: for many big firms delayed by a month and it raises the question of will the return to school go smoothly? i do not think you can make a call on anything until you see september play out. tom: the reports i see on school are rocky. lisa: from personal experience, yes i am living it. it is not going great. my kid was in school for one week and then he had to go back to remote school because one kid was diagnosed with covid. everyone had to isolate for two weeks. what are some of the masking policies going to be to prevent a return to what we saw last year, except with that much less

certainty about where the kids will be? tom: an important note moments ago from maria tadeo summarizing in brussels what is going on in europe. the key item for me is the germans in their briefings stating this will require days, not hours. jonathan: very concerned as well about replicating some of the images we saw at the airport in kabul. they do not want their planes in those pictures. tom: the president of france expected to speak in 8:00 paris time. that is to :00 our time? six hours? jonathan: six hours in front. pleased to help. tom: are they going to change the time zone for lionel messi? jonathan: they should. that is my out. yields unchanged. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro.

this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. desperate scenes are playing out today at the international airport in kabul the day after taliban fighters took control of afghanistan's capital. thousands of people rush to find a way out. according to reuters at least five people were killed as crowds forcibly tried to enter planes leaving the country. the u.s. is trying to evacuate american citizens along with locally employed staff and their families. the biden administration plans to announce the biggest long-term increase in food stamp benefits in the programs history. average benefits in october it will go up more than 25% from pre-pandemic levels for the 42 million people in the program. that will mean billions more in cost for the government. democrats on capitol hill are making a risky wager, bedding republicans will blink and agreed to raise the debt ceiling before it expires. if the democrats are wrong it

could lead to a government shutdown and market turmoil this fall. that could overshadow their efforts to push through president biden's economic agenda. the u.k.'s stepping up its efforts to encourage young people to come forward to take covid vaccines. a number of companies have come up with rewards for those who get a shot, among them gift cards and offers from uber and deliveroo. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the data tells us so far nominal yields are so far below the rate of an asian the fed could be in a very difficult spot. tom: a really important interview with us, i believe it was on friday. that went around the world, his comments on subprime making news. it was amazing to see what his comment did as he compared subprime to where we are right now. lisa: the idea of inflation just as uncertain and problematic should it be wrong. he is right. his call was i do not know how to trade around this because how do you get conviction at a time of such uncertainty? tom: what have we of -- what we have tried to do on afghanistan is beat to richard haass and thomas barfield and on covid we speak with medical authorities. there is no one in the investment community who is educated on what experts think about sars, about avian

influenza, and about the present pandemic, then david kotok of pennsylvania and florida. he is out west right now singing john denver songs and joins us from cumberland advisors. your latest memo is striking for the three articles you attach on pediatric hospitalizations. you are living this in florida. what have you learned? david: we have learned that uncertainty is a powerful forecasting tool. it tells you nothing. risk is one thing. you can estimate it, you can measure things, you can create probabilities. uncertainty does not permit that. we are living in uncertainty with delta and the variant, and we have a massive failure in the

public health system in the united states and most of the world. that was the conclusion in maine. that was the take away from the group. tom: we seem to of lost david. are you still good? can you hear me? david: i can hear you. i do not know about the video but i can hear you. tom: this is the trouble would you do remote from a trout stream. when i look at where we are right now, it dovetails into economic data like empire manufacturing, which is very weak. are you pricing in your view for a slow down or disappointment in gdp? david: the answer is yes. the sentiment indicators that just came out drive that home very strongly. in our portfolios come in our u.s. etf models we are up to 20%

cash and we have doubled the market weight of the entire health care sector in the broad sense of the word because we believe the variant evolution and public health demands on the health care system and the companies that provide resources to fight covid are going to go on for several years. the answer is yes. lisa: 28 percent cash at a time bulls do not get bullish enough. what is the catalyst to cause a selloff that could allow you to deploy some of that cash? david: we don't know. we are looking at the sentiment collapse. that was a very strong michigan data and it has also captured the huge political divide in the country when you have dissected the data. what we know from the wonderful

work, which bloomberg has helped tell the world about, every single pandemic has led to a recession following it, and every single pandemic has led to major structural and political change and geopolitical events. there's is been no exception in history. neil established that in his work. we are uncertain as to what will come, but we know it is major changes. i do not buy the two months recession we just had that it is over. i do not think we have had the shock yet. lisa: what would you say to people who look at corporate earnings and say they are phenomenal, who look at the fact that rates will be low for a long time and say there is no alternative? there are some strong arguments for risk right now, no? david: i would agree with that.

when uncertainty gives way to risk and we can begin to measure more impacts, the answer would be yes. we just had a quarter where we had over $50 in earnings out of the s&p and the trend is higher. when you shift labor share away because you have sick people or dead people and reluctant people to work, you alter the mix between capital and labor. we are doing that. capital wins. there are winners and losers. the stock market is one of the winners. i can see longer-term trajectory from the stock market to 6000 or 7000, with $300 in earnings. tom: who caught the biggest fish? david: i cannot go to that one. that would create a bunch of opinions. let's just say we had great fishing, great conversations, and it was nice to have the gathering back. if i did at one very quick

thing. 100% vaccine passport requirement come and guests come if they did not want to conform they cannot,. everybody was a team player tom: tom:. stay healthy. david kotok, surely the street experts on collating and coalescing and all of the research on these medical issues. i do not know where to begin with the date as we summarize at 9:00. one thing we are doing i do not think we knew at 6:00 a.m., waiting to hear from the president. lisa: and next couple of days. david: can he go out -- tom: can he go out a couple of days? i don't think so. lisa: that is the report from the ministration. i think the china data overnight was significant. we saw something similar out of the empire manufacturing. what does jerome powell say in response to this?

really important issues at a pivotal time of uncertainty. tom: futures -16, dow futures -124. the vix, 17.19. stay with us with our reporting from washington through the day. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> this is a special update from tennis channel. the sport superstars and back in cincinnati for one of the most popular spots on the pro tour. the russian took out djokovic on his way to the title two years ago and the 25-year-old is in top form after run last week. on the women's side, the reigning u.s. opening -- the reigning u.s. open champ naomi osaka returns to the tour after

pulling out of the french open and make. she will need her best tennis early. she could face coco gauff in the second round. do not forget tennis channels exclusive daily live coverage hits the aaron 11:00 eastern. -- it's the air at 11:00 eastern. i am jamie magio. ♪

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jonathan: coming into monday at all-time highs. good morning. 30 minutes away from the opening bell, the countdown to the open starts right now.

♪ >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. the global recovery shown some cracks. >> inflation concerns. >> contracting the virus. >> we have seen covert issues arise in country after country. >> wage growth is pushing it up into bottlenecks due to the delta variant. >> the ppi number was really hot, suggesting more inflation in the pipeline. >> i just don't think we are quite through this much higher than 2% inflioju