♪ >> i don't buy the two month recession we just had. i don't think we've had the shock yet. >> i am not a big believer that we are in a stagflationary environment yet. >> we do want to stay nibble because that is when the fed hikes start to get priced in. >> the anxiety around the taper, we think it is going to be a tantrum-less taper. >> the question is, is now the time to come back in the reflation trade? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience world, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market 19, -20 on the s&p, down 0.4%. here's the outlook for

walmart, boosting its forecast. tom: this really gets in front of the gloom crew. home depot had some pretty good numbers, maybe with a little but of saltiness in comp sales -- a little bit of sogginess in comp sales. i just don't know how else to describe it, but it defines boom economy. we will see from here. jonathan: stock is up 0.3%. it is on to target tomorrow morning. they've been raising the margins. that's the conversation we had so far this morning. tom: it sets up the polarity between the bull market types we talk to who say, corporations will adjust, corporations will get it done, and the legitimate gloom crew saying, now what? jonathan: let's get to the gloom crew.

lisa, they are talking about margins and the pressure we could see. lisa: they beat expectations. they raised forecasts. their stock is basically unchanged, fluctuating between gains and losses in premarket earnings. it goes to the question of how to traders respond to beats. they are looking for the rollover even if they don't see it. jonathan: you can't help yourself, can you? i was talking about the business, not the stock? lisa: the business is doing well, but when people talk about the future, stocks are trying to game out where we are going in that trajectory. it doesn't mean we are going to crash. it just means that the deceleration is what people are looking towards rather than the earnings upgrades we saw today. jonathan: walmart has had a good quarter. the president has not had a good 24 hours. the president addressing in the last 24 hours whether it is the right decision to stay or to leave. he did not address with any real

detail how they left, and why it was so chaotic. tom: full disclosure, i never listen to this garbage. these services are so good, including bloomberg, i look at the sums. yesterday i listened to every word, and what i see is the administration very genuinely in stock, and they are going to -- in shock, and they're going to wade through this in the coming hours to get through some cogent plan with depended on as they brief capitol hill -- with the pentagon as they brief capitol hill. jonathan: you are being more diplomatic than most. we will catch up with our washington correspondent a little later this hour. we decline on 10 year treasury yields by three or four basis points. euro-dollar, $1.1766. your equity market, all-time highs on the s&p 500. tom: i like what zero had

yesterday, that it really looks like corporate buybacks. there's got to be a point where they execute buybacks. when you have the gloom of yesterday and the one off of this horrific afghanistan crisis , maybe that is who weighed in at the end of the day, apple and the like buying back shares. jonathan: let's bring in david stubbs, j.p. morgan chase bank global head of market strategy. this idea that margins may not be insulated into the new year, what is your take on that? david: i would probably take the other side of that, to a certain extent. i think one of the most important things going on is that we are in the midst of a positivity shock. positivity growth started to

move up before this crisis started to re-accelerate gradually, and i think this forced a wave of investment into digital technology we are now seeing companies utilize to deal with a rising input cost environment, and yet deliver tremendous earnings. i think that is going to continue for a while. at some point, look at the strength of investment. that is the major driver i see in the next couple of years. tom: cancel the next three guests. we are going long here with david stubbs. i am going to go back to the great productivity analysis of 15 years ago and give credit to credit suisse on that. there's a new capital deepening intake not believe -- deepening in technology. what does it mean for the stock market? david: it means great things. it means sustainable earnings. it means a capex cycle beating top line as well. it means significant changes in

how businesses organize themselves internally, plus how they talk to their clients and manage their salesforce. that is one of the most powerful trends we are going to see, i global trend. it has been turbocharged by the need to all of a sudden go digital and reduce the end person contact. i think you are starting to see the foundations now of a significant boost in productivity for the next two or three years. what happens after that is an open question, but i will certainly take the overall positivity growth. -- overall productivity growth. lisa: which areas do you think will see the most gains? will it be the likes of amazon and walmart, which will be more able to automate? or other sectors that are perhaps more bid up? david: certainly you can target the companies that are supplying the tools of productivity. you see that in computing, in the software providers.

all of that is enabled by the rollout of 5g. it is enabled by the increase in semiconductor demand that we will see. i think this is a very broad-based imposition of new technology across the economy. there's the old adage recently, and the last decade, that you can see technology change everywhere except in the productivity numbers. i think that is starting to change because you've had two or three generations of some of this software now being introduced and coursing through the mainstream of the economy, and as we see these technologies going from discovery to dissemination, you are starting to see the uptick cycle. i think that will maintain margins. jonathan: it is amazing how any conversations we are having at the moment hardly mentioning the federal reserve what is in that for you -- the federal reserve. what is in that for you? david: everyone has been worried

about this taper all year. i think the communication has been ok. i think your previous guests said there are far too many speakers. there's a lot to keep up with, for sure. i think we would probably say we don't expect a taper tantrum. i think there's a question about the pace of tapering, and we still think inflation will fade as we go into the mill of next year. we have the fed tightening -- the fed hiking in 2023. i'm looking at the minutes tomorrow rather than the speech today for any new signs. tom: do you want to make a production over spx 5000? david: i think our official numbers are a little south of that. jonathan: you've got to -- tom: you've got to be the biggest bull at j.p. morgan. you've got three ratio

productivity. you've got capital, labor dynamics, and total factor productivity. the technological revolution we are going to see, where does it show up? david: it definitely shows up in total factor productivity. firstly, it is very difficult to measure. it is kind of a catchall for the things that you can clearly see day-to-day. of course, we have to be careful with the numbers. they are volatile, and they get revised. he really need to wait for the third round of gdp to see it. that is where i think it will start to see real change. we are really excited about the innovations you will see in health care, the push into sustainable trends like clean energy. i think there's a whole range of technologies here that we will be reading about, but haven't really been experiencing. the 20 20's will see us integrate those into our daily lives, and you will see a lot of investable opportunities out of

that. a lot of that is in private investment and down the capitalization spectrum, but it is there and it is perfectly investable. jonathan: classic tk, trying to get david in trouble with mr. dimon. david stubbs, global head of market strategy. your equity market down 21. tom: can i talk now, or should i wait? jonathan: you don't need my permission. you know that. tom: what are we, married? jonathan: basically. [laughter] i found an old picture of us the other day from about 10 years ago. tom: that is the most optimistic conversation we had on the show in i am going to say 18 months. jonathan:jonathan: most of j.p. morgan share those feelings. lisa: i think it is really interesting to see the push-pull here. he says people who are pessimistic about margins, the ability to avoid the inflationary pressures, aren't

looking in this increase of technological changes. there's these two different factors, especially as we see some of the prices increase that much more in the wake of shipping disruptions, particularly from china. i think that is fascinating. how do you even begin to measure this? how do you game it out at a time when many people are saying this is unprecedented? tom: afterthought's got a new laptop computer required for school that was fancier than anything they took to the moon. jonathan: when does that get delivered, next year? tom: no, i've got it. we are playing "minecraft" on it. jonathan: i don't know what is going on this morning. coming up, we will talk about the federal reserve. tom: the one with the portrait. jonathan: equity futures down 21, down 0.5%. owing to d.c. next -- going to

d.c. next. what was that speech about? that is the question many are asking. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. is in talks with the taliban to try to restore order. thousands rushed to exit the country in kabul, and at least seven people reportedly have been killed. the state department says any attempt to target the u.s. as americans evacuate will be met with a decisive response. while, china is now embracing a high-stakes relationship that the taliban. beijing's foreign minister welcomed it, been delegation to china and said the group had an important role in governing afghanistan. meanwhile, a growing rival week with -- growing rivalry with the u.s. has xi jinping pushing back against u.s. dominance. in haiti, authorities say the

earthquake killed more than 1400 people and injured almost 7000. several thousand homes were destroyed. now officials are bracing for tropical storm grace. a sign that they do it yourself boom has slowed from elevated levels earlier in the pandemic, home depot reported second quarter results that were your than expected. same-store sales missed estimates. home depot declined to release a forecast for fiscal 2021. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: it is the cold reality of either following

through on the agreement to withdraw our forces or escalating the conflict and sending thousands more american troops back into combat in afghanistan and lurching into a third decade of conflict. jonathan: the president of the united states in the last 24 hours. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your equity market price action this tuesday. all-time highs, five-day winning streak. down 21 on the day, -0.5%. yields come in for a third straight session, declining to 1.2267%. euro-dollar negative by about 0.1%. the president addressed the argument over whether or not we should be in afghanistan. he did not address with any clarity or detail how this country left and the chaos that built at kabul airport.

he essentially blamed the afghans. when it came to getting people out more quickly, he essentially blamed the afghans. and then, and concluding remarks , said the buck stopped with him, but the bulk of that speech didn't speak to that. tom: but at 3:00 p.m. yesterday, i think the news was still flowing, and frankly, the news is flowing this morning. i believe it is eight not half hours -- eight and a half hours, somewhere towards the vicinity of 4:00 in the afternoon in kabul. jack fitzpatrick knows the time zones correctly. here is our bloomberg government reporter. an all in 9/11 cost of $6.4 trillion. are we going to have to budget for this debacle, or is there a debacle budget already in place? jack: there's more or less a debacle budget in place, at least with the early stages of

this. there is sort of an outstanding question as to how many refugees are going to be coming to the u.s. the president mentioned pretty vaguely yesterday that he would be looking to help afghans at risk. there's not a number he provided . so the executive branch announced another $5 million to help refugees. the often is if they're going to be more than that, and if congress is going to have to act, and if this is going to get tied into the legislative agenda . really, that is more of a question on the efficacy of the u.s. efforts to help people rather than the cost. tom: what is your reporting on the pentagon in the last 24 hours? jack: on the costs they need, in the initial stages it appears they have what they need. there hasn't been a request to congress yet. but you could probably tell by

watching the president's speech yesterday, this is devolving pretty quickly, and it is not entirely clear what comes next. but in terms of the cost and the ability to stem those additional 6000 troops, they more or less seem to have what they need for now. the question is in a few days or later, are they going to be more from congress? lisa: what is the debate around discussing director with the taliban, especially now as they take control of the nation? jack: we had a preview of that debate at the start when the peace agreement was negotiated directly between the u.s. and the taliban that precipitated all of this, that did not include directly the afghan government at the time. there's an interesting split in washington in which democrats and some more libertarian types are more or less happy about the general idea of pulling out of

afghanistan and were willing to view those discussions with the taliban as they happened last year. obviously, today's events come of the events of the last few days put that in a very negative light, and there's a lot of neoconservative criticism coming, although it is more focused on the details of how this pullout has gone wrong rather than specifically with the idea of the u.s. going into talks with the taliban, which obviously had already happened to a significant extent. lisa: how much has this debacle, and i am talking about the humanitarian issues, the deaths that have arisen, as a result of how quickly the government fell to the taliban in afghanistan, how much has that taken oxygen out of the room when it comes to discussing infrastructure and other economic and health policies that president biden has been trying to push through? jack: it is a strange time for this to happen because congress

is in recess, and they are kind of working behind the scenes on everything they need to do to put their infrastructure bill forward and all of that. obviously this is dominating the news cycle, and it is possible this will require attention from congress, especially if they need to appropriate more money and come up with a more specific plan for refugees, but really, they can't do both at once. it is just a very difficult political issue. probably, the greater risk is just the frustration that is building, and any ill will that may occur in bipartisan conversations. tom: an unfair question that goes back to macarthur, that goes back to midwest isolation alyssa him after very isolation -- midwest isolationism after various and sundry wars. how isolationist is it right

now? jack: when the u.s. -- more isolationist than when the u.s. got into the war with afghanistan. it is worth considering that two consecutive administrations from different parties laid out a plan to get out of afghanistan, and even as president biden's speech didn't really address the issues in the short term on the ground now, his emphasis on the long-term strategy of the u.s. pulling out of afghanistan, his emphasis that the u.s. shouldn't be engaged wholeheartedly in nationbuilding, and emphasis on the limits of what the u.s. should have tried to accomplish in afghanistan really has some bipartisan appeal. it is not as big in the republican party, but this is a continuation of what we have seen now for two administrations . not necessarily isolationist, but definitely pulling back on the outward focus in foreign policy, at least in terms of the

military, that we saw for a long time. jonathan: we've got to leave it there. it is always important whenever you are covering stories like this to never allow the politicians to frame the debate for you. that is what happened yesterday with that speech. the president, in richard haas'' words, painted a binary picture between leaving the country or raising military response levels. it was about how we left and the chaos at that airport, to see people holding onto military plane's. that is what it was about yesterday, and that speech for so money people, republican, democrats, outside of america and beyond, that is why this speech missed the moment. it didn't speak to that chaos. tom: there's no question about that. but maybe that was the goal of the president as well, to take a more presidential, above it all moment. it is tough to do that with the images we are observing. jonathan: that is always the

goal, to reframe the debate, to talk about whether we should stay or we should leave. we can talk about that, but yesterday wasn't about that. the weekend was not about that. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, good morning. equities negative, down 23 on the s&p. we declined 0.5%. clear underperformance on the small caps. the nasdaq does not sit out the drawdown. we are down by about 0.4%. for big tech in america, that's the equity market. all-time highs, up more than 100% from the march 2020 low -- 2020 lows. retail sales an hour from now. after that, we get to chairman powell, 1:30 eastern time, delivering his town hall to educators before his address next week at jackson hole. tens are lower for a third straight session to 1.2233%.

just south of 1.90% on the 30 year. will be chairman of the federal reserve be overwhelmed by events? let me show you a central bank governor that has been overwhelmed by events. new zealand, population 5 million. one single case leads to a three day shutdown. the governor was just about to make a decision that some people believed would lead to higher interest rates. a move on the currency of 1.28%. the kiwi to the u.s. dollar off the back of a single covid case that leads to a three-day lockdown. tom: you sound like a media frenzy here. the stock market has been a moonshot since july 2021. we are 0.5% off the record high yesterday. jonathan: i said a move of 100%

or more from the march low. tom: it's a market drawdown. you sound like romaine bostick on "the close." jonathan: i'm not talking about the magnitude of the move, just the direction. lisa: how's the marriage? jonathan: we are a little bit softer, lower. not the marriage. [laughter] can we do this later? tom: i don't know. go to romaine. jonathan: down 35, it's brutal. tom: there we go. jonathan: down futures down, too. ridiculous. here's romaine bostick with some movers for you. romaine: good morning. retail sales in about an hour. here's your set up. walmart out with earnings area -- out with earnings. comp sales beat the street, which was looking for 3.1%. the company guided to about 6% on the full year. some concerns about e-commerce sales, down from the previous

quarter. more importantly, the contribution of e-commerce sales to overall same-store sales growth was only 0.2%. that seems to be where some of the concern is. that's why some of the shares might be down in the premarket. we should point out that cash from operating activities dropped to about $12.4 billion, down from about $19 billion in the year prior. target reports tomorrow. those shares are slightly higher. the dynamics they are slightly different. target shares also higher, but we should point out the there is light. home depot, 140 $4 billion in annual sales. for the quarter, a bit of a disappointment. the company did post a profit, but it came in slightly below what the street was looking for. the other interesting thing about home depot, they talked about customer transactions. customer transactions actually slipped a little bit here.

the actual dollar amount per transaction rose, so it is kind of a muddy picture for a lot of these retailers. they are still seeing growth, still seeing customers come in the door, but it is not the street line trajectory that a lot of them saw during the pandemic. a few other names to keep an eye on, moderna down for a third straight day based on the premarket activity. it is down by 1.3%. it is done for the sixth time in seven days from that all-time high back on august 9. a lot of chinese stocks are lower as well. a lot of them moved lower in hong kong. adrs are now lower as well. alibaba, tencent music down. regulatory overhang still a bit of an issue here. we are getting a lot of earnings of these companies this week, including tencent this morning. finally, roadblocks -- finally, roblox down 6% this morning. tom: right now, joe feldman joins from telsey advisory group

on walmart, on the rest of the big bucks as well. home depot over the last 10 years, up 28% per year. does the next decade look as rosy for these guys like home depot as the last 10 years? joseph: well, the big guys keep getting bigger, they keep taking market share, so yeah, we think things do look he rosy. there's going to be some bumps in the road. home depot thanks we are slowing a bit, but that will pass, and they will continue to grow over the longer term for sure. tom: one of the most important things in the bloomberg is you can see the flow, the institutional ownership versus the flow in a couple of key clicks. there's home depot and amazon at 72% of flow. and the rest, like walmart, are at 60%-ish. what is the partition for institutions? joseph: i think they are just like these fortress companies that are dominating in retail.

they execute really well. they are gaining market share. they've got customers that want to go and shop at those stores. as leaders in their respective spaces, it keeps investors really invested in these names. there's others, i think walmart, target, lowes are like that. costco you could put in that camp as well. so these big behemoth retailers continue to consolidate the share that is available. lisa: this sounds like a great story. at times like it would be a buy. walmart shares up by about 4.6% on the year. after beating earnings, beating forecasts across the board, showing that they are continuing to see gains even post-pandemic, shares down 1.4% right now in premarket trading. how do you make sense of this? joe: it is a little surprising to me, and especially with the set up for the back half, where

walmart has so much momentum going into back to school and into holiday. it has clearly got the inventory is much as there are supply chain pressures out there. so they are set up very well for a back half. i'm a little surprised that investors are selling on this news. i think they performed quite well. traffic was up. same-store sales were better-than-expected. they raised full-year guidance. there's a lot of things going well. even with that e-commerce sales number coming in a little bit later at 6%, we were hoping it was going to be more like 10%. last year it was up 97%. i'm ok with that. i think they are going to continue to do well through this period, especially with the fiscal stimulus and the government support that is there for this consumer, with the child tax credit. the set up is still very good for the back half of walmart. lisa: you mentioned the key issue i think a lot of people are pointing to come of the disappointment in e-commerce sales and the progress or lack

thereof relative to the boom of last year. there doesn't seem to be concerned about this horserace, who is going to get ahead when it comes to online sales, because this is the new economy. what should investors be looking for in terms of investment in the space, and terms of market share to make them feel like the story is going to come out ahead in the era of walmart, target and amazon? joe: we have been thinking that sales online were going to slow this year, and they clearly have. doing positive performance is still very good. a lot of us would have thought you would see a negative. so i think between walmart, amazon, target, they are continuing to gain eyeballs online and gain market share online, and i think that is coming at the expense of a lot of weaker players. i think walmart, amazon, target, costco, and others have done a good job of providing a broad

range of products to be able to get and procure online. we see them continuing to gain market share. even amazon, their second quarter was soft by amazon standards. prime day was a little bit softer than we all expected, and the quarter itself was a little bit softer. that trendline against the comparison from last year makes some sense. when you look on a two-year basis compared to 2019 levels pre-covid, things are looking pretty solid for a lot of these guys. jonathan: joe feldman, good to hear from you, sir. telsey advisory group research analyst, this after walmart raises the outlook for a second consecutive quarter. the stock lower in early trading. lisa: it really raises the question of what is priced in. how much good news is priced in, and how much our expectations baked into the prices way beyond where the wall street analysts are pricing it?

to me, these are some of the questions we will see throughout the earnings. jonathan: just to mention target , how high the bar is going to be for that particular name. that name is a time year to date -- is up big time year to date. lisa: the interesting thing is walmart is not. they have underperformed, and they just blew it out of the water, and their shares are still down. so the tables are much more stacked against target in terms of their performance. jonathan: if you had to guess, target your to date, up 49%. that is quite a rally. tom: i am not an expert on that. i met expert on the walk up where i live, the pilot boxes piles up for all of the people in the building. it is real simple. tons of amazon, a fair amount of chewy, and once a week i see a walmart box. that is my fancy scientific analysis. jonathan: you and i used to live in the same building. tom: that went well. jonathan: i know there's four

elevators there. a walkup. [laughter] coming up, michael gapen, barclays chief economist. i once walked into the gym. tk is there bench pressing. true story. actually a fair amount of weight. i said, what are you up to? he said the old ice hockey routine. i walked right back out. tom: the last time i worked out, nixon was president. [laughter] jonathan: -0.4%. tom: we are in arbitration. [laughter] jonathan: yields lower by four basis points on the 10 year, 1.2233%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: with the first -- ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the president offered a defiant

defense of his decision to pull troops out of the afghanistan. he had knowledged the situation was far from perfect. both allies and opponents suggested the president disregarded concerns that the taliban was advancing quickly, and that has led to a humanitarian disaster. for months, superstar fund manager cathie wood has been reducing holdings tied to chinese tech giants. the founder of ark investment management spoke with bloomberg tv. >> we do own and some of our most specialized funds some chinese stocks. we have tried to stay away from those that are privy to a lot of private information and our online, although you can't stay away from all of them. but we have minimized our positions significantly, and in our flagship fund, we don't own any more chinese stocks. ritika: wood says the crackdown on tech industry by the chinese government has hurt innovation. the u.s. government is preparing to offer booster shots as soon

as next month. biden adminstration officials are set to recommend shots be taken eight months after they receive their second vaccine dose. in china, the partial closure of the world's third-largest container port is making congestion works at other major chinese ports. one of the major terminals has been closed since last week after a dock worker became infected with the coronavirus. the shipping industry has been plagued by destruction of global shooting trains that has -- shipping trades that has driven ports to be backed up. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what we have seen in the last 48 hours of trading, going back to friday, is confirmation of a

less rosy cyclical outlook, which is playing more into the longer run structural theme that justifies low rates and lower yields. jonathan: steve major, hsbc managing director and global head of fixed income research. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 21. we declined by about 0.5% on the s&p 500. yields lower at 1.2250%. lower by a basis point on friday. tom: let's take 30 seconds here before david wilson to stop -- to talk steve major here. the delta back five or six years is without question to a lower yield. that is a structural call of mr. major. but what is important to me is

the only time we have been lower than this yield is through 2020, through the pandemic. where we are right now is hugely unusual. jonathan: the bullish call is that a tolerance for higher interest rates has greatly diminished over the last year. just on the supply on the taper story, he's making the argument that treasury supply will decline over the next year or so , and because of that, that will offset the tapering to some degree, so he doesn't even think tapering will be bearish for treasuries. as i say, he's looking for 1% on the 10 year year end. tom: that is still a stunning call. that is something dave wilson will be concerned with when he measures and partitions growth and value. can you separate growth and value, or do you correlate them into one big analysis? dave: it is altogether, more or less, at this point, which is a real departure looking at the russell 2000 growth and value

indexes. oppenheimer ran the analysis. you go back to mid-may, and the russell 1000 value index was ahead of its growth counterpart by more than 13% for the year. so now you are talking about a gap that is basically nothing. earlier this month, it was 0.1%, so things have really closed up. just to give you an idea of how unusual that would be if it lasts through year end, you have to go back to 2014 to see the last time he growth and value indexes had comparable gains. since then you have seen a cap of more than 16 -- a gap of more than 16% on average. tom: it may be an unfair question, but you are so good at this, i am going to go with it. what is the duration of up for value? the perception is it does nothing for x number of years, then it moves. then what? what is the length of value success? dave: then what becomes the

question. we have gone more than a decade without seeing value stocks really show relative strength area it has happened in the last year with all of the efforts to pump up the u.s. economy, with the unusual pace of earnings growth, it is the rising tide lifting all boats. since value was kind of down in the water for so long, it has really had the biggest response. now things have even doubt, so the question becomes does value reassert itself, or do people just stick with those big tech companies and the others that dominate in the growth categories? lisa: let's take a look at one aspect of the value complex, with digits -- which is financials. we have seen a yield curve that has flattened somewhat. typically over the past few years, there has been trading in tandem. the steeping of the yield curve means financials outperform. how long can financials continue to shrug off the trend we have seen at least recently of lower yields? dave: that is a real question.

as i was pointing out yesterday in my chart of the day that i showcased in this timeslot, it was really financial stocks reestablishing their ties to bond yields. you do have to ask that question. if yields keep falling, do you get to the point where people start to focus again on what may happen to the bank profitability and make those shares back off from what they have done which is become the best performers among the 11 main industry groups in the s&p 500 this year. lisa: i want to get your take on the share underperformance we have seen of walmart this morning. not specific stock related, but just in terms of overall disappointments and how they have been treated in the markets. if companies beat, how do their stocks perform versus if they disappoint? dave: this time around, we did see stocks tend to move up when the results were positive, the what we are seeing today with

walmart and home depot are the example of the other side of the coin. certainly we have seen shares fall as a rule when the numbers don't measure up because it has been so rare, if nothing else. you are talking 88% of the s&p 500 beating analyst average estimates in the bloomberg survey earnings. when you see numbers come up short, people are picking apart for companies and taking down the shares. tom: david wilson, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it today that may -- today on a chart that may even be more interesting come december. the vix at 17.19. jonathan: yields in four basis points on tens. real smart audience we have on a program what this. and an institutional following as well. this from an institutional investor, greg peterson of pgim. "massive cut in treasury supply

is a huge story. it completely neutralizes the taper and then some. not enough focus on the massive cut. just pgim's view. tom: let's stop the show here. who is greg eaters, folks? greg peters is massively award-winning over a long duration. so say that quote again as we have the attention into mr. tipp . "massive cut in treasury supply is a huge story. it completely neutralizes the taper and then some. not enough focus on the massive cut." tom: a lot of folks watching us, trying to get ready for the morning. greg peters trades off of what he hears on the show. jonathan: together with rubber tip -- with robert tipp. tom: off of lisa abramowicz today, he bought into the saint regis. jonathan: i can't confirm that is what happened. tom: well, it is a rumor.

jonathan: that is the bullish view on treasuries this morning. lisa: that has been the bullish view for the past few months. on the flipside, people say at some point, fundamentals have to matter. if inflation starts picking up, that will make a big difference. it does make me wonder, even if the fed tapers, what is the response in the bond market? some people are saying yields are going to go higher, yet even without the supply and demand dynamic you have been talking about, we have seen yield go lower because it hampers growth to be tightening more early. so many questions in terms of not only what the fed does, but also how traders respond. jonathan: robert tipp of pgim, that conversation just around the corner. your equity market shaping up as follows. five days of gains hit a headwind. we are down 20 on the s&p, -0.4%. we decline on tens to 1.2250%.

the last couple of weeks have been difficult for crude. $66.80 on wti. we declined by 0.7 5%. heard on radio, seen on tv, for our audience worldwide, one hour still to go. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. (announcer) the core is key to losing weight, getting back in shape, and feeling good. introducing the aero trainer, designed to strengthen your core, flatten your stomach, and relieve stress and back pain. it conforms to your body and increases muscle activity. abs, back, obliques, hips, and glutes. get incredible results in just five to ten minutes a day. the aero trainer supports over 500 pounds, and inflates and deflates in seconds. check it out at aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com.

>> a lot of the market is already corrected. the 5% to 10% correction has been happening internally. >> i don't buy the two months recession we've just had. i don't think we've had the shock yet. >> you are starting to see the foundations of a significant boost in productivity for the next two to three years. >> we do want to stay nimble because that is when the fed hikes start to get priced and. >> we know that a taper is coming. the biggest disagreement on wall street, is it september, is a distemper -- is it december, guess what? it doesn't really matter in the

grain scheme of things.