>> a lot of the market is already corrected. the 5% to 10% correction has been happening internally. >> i don't buy the two months recession we've just had. i don't think we've had the shock yet. >> you are starting to see the foundations of a significant boost in productivity for the next two to three years. >> we do want to stay nimble because that is when the fed hikes start to get priced and. >> we know that a taper is coming. the biggest disagreement on wall street, is it september, is a distemper -- is it december, guess what? it doesn't really matter in the grain scheme of things.

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a simulcast on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio. we say good morning to you. the markets move off to gamble on a slowing american economy. the consumer, 70% of the economy. in this hour, retail sales. jonathan: retail sales 30 minutes away, then on to chairman powell this afternoon. to what extent is the delta variant slowing down this economy? we will get a read on that may in about 30 minutes. tom: we saw empire manufacturing yesterday. the bond market speaks volumes. not record low on yields, a new recent record low, but we are getting there. the trend is to a lower yield. jonathan: we are down by four basis points on tens to 1.2667%. five days of gains into today.

off the lows of last year, a move of more than 100%. we just keep churning them out. tom: four days in a row above $1 trillion, that is one part of the liquidity story. lisa: there's an irony baked in here that if the economy were going gangbusters and we didn't see the delta variant slowing things down, people would trouble he say is running too hot and people would worry about inflation stymieing the rally we are seeing in equities. we've got constraints on growth that are keeping things chugging along, with companies still very much in and -- much in power. tom: it is extraordinary to see how the united kingdom and the united states react essentially to day two of a massive debacle. leon panetta calling it bay of pigs-like.

jonathan: the u.s. and its allies facing a lot of criticism. the debate for many in the u.k., the united states, and far beyond is not about whether to stay or to leave. it is about how the united states left, how allies left afghanistan. the airport in kabul, those scenes, a lot of explaining to be done by this administration and others around the world. tom: president biden at camp david again. let's go through the data right now. equities, -20. dow futures, -200. jonathan: it is brutal out there. we are down 0.4% on the s&p. i hate to dow points thing, but let's not get into that. down on tens to 1.2250 percent. euro-dollar a little bit negative. crude down 0.7%. jonathan: i am going to let jon ring in our next guest because he's got a working conversation

with him. put the real yield, -- "the real yield," look for it this weekend. they sponsored walter cronkite in the 20th century and on through the decades. i don't know what it was, 10, 12, 15 years ago, prudential and now pgim woke up to excellence. the awards they have won have been stunning. jonathan: a fantastic lineup over at pgim, and robert tipp joins us now, their chief investment strategist. do you believe we have seen a peak in yields already? walk us through the reasoning. robert: sure. this is a long-term secular call . one of the things my colleagues notice where the demographics and the power of the demographics pushing down growth rates, pushing down interest rates. another factor that has built up

over the years are the excessive debt levels. those have conspired to push down equilibrium interest rates and economies can handle. so it has been a secular backdrop pushing equilibrium down towards a 1.25% rate. i think that is one difficulty which one challenge, wrapping her arms around where that is at any point in time. even bigger challenge is the timing, the timing on taper, how does monetary policy and a taper impact japan or europe as opposed to the united states. the timing is different, but it is very counterintuitive. the same is true for the growth cycle. when things were really picking up in the first quarter, it was becoming apparent with vaccines you are going to have a boom. high inflation in those numbers were kicking in. that was really the worst moment for bonds, when yields were peeking in that area. now you have them reverting to

fundamental value, and people out of the market and being forced to chase this. you're seeing the short squeeze bring the market much more rapidly than anyone would have expected right down to fair value. jonathan: is there still a squeeze to be had? we have been talking about that short squeeze now for what feels like months. robert: i think so. i think structurally, that is the case. it doesn't matter where you are looking, i think you find it. whether you are looking at institutional investors, a forecast 2% 10 year at the end of next year, in their minds, every really strong rally that brings the market down close to 1.25% is an opportunity to sell the short. i think for retail investors or pension funds that have some kind of 60/40 target, the equity market is continuing to rocket higher and it means an ongoing

need for them to sell stocks and buy bonds, and people tend to drag their feet on those kinds of adjustments. so i think that is the element why it continues to be so durable. lisa: there's a question of whether ultralow rates and ever lower rates flattens out the default cycle. can we have a proper credit cycle with yields where they are , not probably going to rise all that much in the near future? robert: you are not going to -- this cycle. it might take longer, if there's a lot of liquidity and issuers in trouble can push out their problems in the future, but there's always going to be a coming home to roost. but right now, things are looking pretty good. isaac this is going to be a grinding market. it is one where the biggest challenge continues to be for investors to stay in the market. on's continued to outperform

cash, and stocks continue to outperform bonds. i think that is going to cut down people's expectations. that is going to be the challenge. tom: can you managed duration on a linear basis almost on a comfortable and simple basis, or do you have to take a barbell strategy to set up some form of diversified relation? robert: i think you have to diversify across time and diversified across markets. for example, the markets tend to be trading in a range. the curve shape tends to be changing through the cycle, and then the treasury on the others that in the corporate market, those issuance patterns continue to change. so generally speaking, you have a strategic view on where the market is going to be, and within that, in terms of the spread cycle, in terms of the yield curve cycle, the shape of the yield curve, how concave down convex up it is at any

point, they need to modulate the positioning. then there is the matter of issue pricing. the derivatives you would use to make those adjustments, whether they are in your favor or priced against you. jonathan: this guy called greg road in and talked about greg wrote -- greg wrote in and talked about this. robert: it is great that supply is going to be dropping off because the fed is going to be tapering their purchases, and those will kind of match off. i think tipping element is that the economy is going to be moving off of p growth, moving off-peak inflation, so that is why the market is kind of settling down to be these long-term average type levels of yields going forward, surprisingly in advance, because

the balance of supply and demand forces, along with the coming off the peak growth, peak inflation in the markets are very forward-looking. jonathan: got to leave it there. it is good to catch up with you. robert tipp, pgim chief investment strategist. that was a clinic from a bond market bull. tom: absolutely. what you just heard was the complexity of how pros look at a diversified portfolio. we will take a bet here, a bet on the others, and balance the vent. they go way beyond that to some real nuance. jonathan: what happened to the death of 60/40, tom? tom: that is a little bit away from what tipp is talking about, but i've called that for years. it is a pretty little curve, and it can be 60/40, 60/30/10, and where we are now, especially

with the real yield, i don't think you bring up the 60/40 on "the real yield" on fridays. jonathan: just in terms of the basic portfolio construction, that was the debate coming into the new year, that maybe the 40 needed to be questioned. lisa: he's even saying that a lot of the pensions that have gotten these gains in stocks have to rotate back into bonds, so that is going to be an additional support. i am just thinking, what does the credit cycle look like with yields at sub 1%? jonathan: maybe we just don't have the traditional credit cycle. lisa: a lot of people are wondering that. frankly, what does it look like? what are the different contours? is it just more debt, whatever cycle we have next? i thing it seems like that. jonathan: yields in four basis points on tends, 1.226 7%. about 18 minutes away from retail sales in america.

from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. wal-mart posted second quarter results that beat expectations. the world's largest retailer also raised its sales forecast for the year. results show that demand isn't disappearing following last year's sales boom. demand for shopping was expect it to slow as customers returned to stores. another sign that the do-it-yourself boom has slowed from elevated levels earlier in the pandemic. home depot reported second-quarter results that were weaker than expected. sales missed estimates. home depot declined to release a forecast for fiscal 2021. taliban are urging women to join the new government. when the taliban were previously

in power, women were largely confined to their homes. in haiti, authorities now say the earthquakes killed more than 1400 and injured almost 7000. several thousand homes were destroyed. now haitians are pricing for tropical storm grace, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. in new zealand, prime minister jacinda ardern says the country will go into a level for lockdown, the most restrictive type, after authorities detected their first local case of coronavirus and 170 days. new zealand has been in a level for lockdown only once before. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the american presence was essential to keep the allied troops there and provide a

psychological and military floor for the afghans. so no, it wasn't going to give you peace. it wasn't going to give you a military victory. what it was going to do is avoid bringing about exactly what we are seeing on our screens. jonathan: that was richard haass, the council of foreign relations president. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action going into retail sales 12 minutes away in america. michael mckee will break that down for you in just a moment. we are down about 20 on the s&p, we declined by about 0.4%. yields are lower by four basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar negative 0.2%. crude, $66.67. tom: good to take that over the commodity complex as a whole. we don't do that enough. right now on the politics of the

moment, this is the perfect guest to do this with, terry haines is the pangea policy founder. we had to go out and find somebody as jaded as we can find within the beltway, and we hit the ball out of the park. i want to go back 306 he five days, times 10, plus another 38 days, where president obama took 650 soldiers out of afghanistan long ago and far away. i believe the all in number at the time was 110,000. we can say that three presidents have said we got to exit. biden, trump, and obama. there's thoughts and there's prayers for this horrific moment, but there's also a common ground that wasn't discussed yesterday. what is the common ground of trump and biden to say is got to end this thing? terry: the common ground is, and thank you for the jaded comment, the common ground is pretty much just that there has been a

consensus, not unanimity, but consensus that the time has long since passed to drawdown in afghanistan and finalize that. but i think jon ferro put it very well this morning, that this is not about that policy. what this is about is the manner of our leaving. that creates a real political problem that i think goes past the moment here. tom: in the zeitgeist this morning, i don't have anything directly in front of me to quote , the biden people say this began january 20 when there was no plan handed over from the trump administration. do you buy that? terry: no, i don't buy it at all. very simply, the current administration has been revoking, changing, negating

trump policies across the board on all kinds of things, and it is ducking to say that there's nothing they could have done about this. they could have had their own planned. they could have changed the view. they could have done all kinds of things. they have chosen not to do that. for reasons that i don't know. but nonetheless, the current president owns this. lisa: given that you have been watching politics and dovetailing it into policy for a long time, what could president biden do right now to shore up support in his own party, let alone on a bipartisan basis, to keep his initiatives on track? terry: firstly, they are going to have to come clean to congress about the intelligence failures here, which were serious, and which will be investigated. senator warner, head of the senate intelligence committee, has already said he intends to investigate that, and warner is a savvy guy and a senior guy.

so there's that. the other thing that biden is going to have to do that is going to be very hard to do, frankly, is repair his brand. the brand is quiet competence and a safe pair of hands, and that brand has been shaken. one of the immediate political consequences here is that democratic centrists inch away from him and make it harder to achieve some of the things the biden administration has said it wants to achieve. i don't think what i call the real infrastructure package that just passed the senate, i don't think that is in any danger. but i already had the so-called human infrastructure piece at 30% likely, and nothing that has happened in the last week improves those odds. if you are a member or senator going into a 2020 to reelect, do you embrace what the public

increasingly things is a progressive wishlist, or whatever it is that biden wants? or do you carve your own path? a lot of what we saw in the trump years on the republican side, i think increasingly they carved their own path. lisa: you also said in a recent note you have these recent the filaments increased the chance we would see more of a republican ship -- recent developments increased the chance that we would see more of a republican shift in congress. they didn't necessarily propose an alternative land to get out more easily. terry: no, i think that the republican skewing is in large part thanks to demographics. redistricting and the like. republicans i think are still quite capable of blowing that advantage, as they showed in 2010 and 2012. they did pick up the house in

2010, but couldn't pick the senate up for four years. regardless of that, i think the markets need to understand that they need to look for more coalition politics in the years to come, so i often say this is not a two-party washington. it is a four-coalition washington. they have to come together or not, so what you are going to see is increment o progress, but you are not going to see, regardless of who takes the majority, the ability to decisively change political direction. jonathan: it is easy for me in the cheap seats, easy for others to say this is what the president should have said. most people watched that yesterday, at least from the people i heard, and were highly critical of him for not acknowledging the moment we were in, the chaos at the airport, and not looking at that and saying, you know what? that was a failure to plan. it is on me.

how would that speech have been received if it was written in the way that so may people would have liked it to have been? terry: i think it would certainly have been received better in the moment by people. i think it still wouldn't wash away a lot of the problems that exist. as i say, the intelligence failures, the inability to understand what was likely to happen in afghanistan is something that is not going to get washed away. i thought tom voted forward secretary panetta on the bay of pigs -- tom quoted former secretary panetta on the bay of pigs, and i think that is apt. that did not go away quickly for the kennedy administration. in fact, there was an approximate pause in the cuban missile situation. jonathan: we are moments away

from retail sales in america. tom: this is going to be an awfully important report. it really speaks to the slow down after a boom economy. wait 30 days, even more important. jonathan: the prince just around the corner in new york city this morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity market down .5%. retail sales about the drop. here is michael mckee. michael: we are waiting for the numbers. we have the net to thank. the forecast is for a drop of .3% after a gain of .6%. a lot of that would be used cars were car sales because the number of car sales dropped off during the month of july. then we want to watch some of the categories like apparel. are we starting to see back buying? we are watch for things like eating and drinking, has tom keene been propping up the economy? tom: what is the control group?

michael: the control group is things that go into gdp. they leave out gasoline, they leave out food, and they leave out autos because autos go in as business investment rather than auto sales. it gives economists an idea of what we will see. tom: did we get the wrong day? lisa: i think we have to go back . michael: is the coverage department folks who got the wrong day. they have had problems. this comes out of the census bureau. i will mention the retail sales control group is expected to climb .2%. tom: there we go. michael: getting some numbers for july. the headline numbers not great, down 1.1%. we did expect to drop because of auto sales. the june number revised to a .7%

gain from a .6% gain. that is a little bit better. it 1.1% decline is not particularly good. retail and food services fall 1.1%. that is the headline number. you take out autos and it is a .4% decline, you take out gasoline it is a 1.4% tech line. motor vehicles down 3.9%. autos and others down 4.3%. and auto it to all of this. the electronics and appliance stores were up .3%. home furnishings down, which is a surprise given the way the economy has developed. gasoline up 2.4%, this is all based on prices. we throw that out. the clothing and accessories number is disappointing, down 2.6%.

people were not buying new clothes. i have a friend who says passion is dead. -- who says fashion is dead. food services rose 1.7%. that is a bit of an improvement. people were going out to eat. last one is if we have building materials and guarded and equipment supply dealers down 1.2%. interesting given the home depot result. lisa: interesting -- jonathan: interesting price action. yields coming in three basis points. equity futures down 25, almost exactly where they were. negative 0.55%. a negative print, a downside surprise. the question will be asked by some people come is there a read across from the spread of the delta variant and what is the

readthrough to federal reserve officials we expect to hear from through the next week? jonathan: -- michael: the consensus is you would not get much of the delta impact because retail sales are generally surveyed through the first part of the month, then you get the revision in the next month for the rest of the month. this would be the first part of july when delta was not as widespread. you look at a category like food and beverage, that fell .7%. grocery stores down .4%. if people were staying home you would think that number would rise and the eating intriguing places would fall. instead it is the opposite. lisa: is it too much of an extrapolation to say it is the higher prices, the area seeing biggest inflationary impulses that are dampening appetite to buy. there is crossover between the university of michigan survey we saw at this disappointing retail sales print that does not

include a significant portion of the delta slow down? michael: i'm not sure because the michigan numbers reflected an emotional response to the delta variant. this may be more a case of a falling off of the stimulus cliff. you got your stimulus checks and you spent them and you bought what you needed, now you may not need to buy as much stuff. you look at clothing get accessories, down 2.6%. it may be we stopped buying things. that is what seems to happen with cars. you look at gasoline prices, that is based on dollar volume. gas prices were up and you see a rise. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. a dollar left. nasdaq futures down on a percentage basis. the nasdaq down .7%. michael gapen with barclays, the chief u.s. economist. frame out your gdp call.

if you want to change it right now we are all years. -- we are all ears. michael: i think mike framed it the way i would. this feels like coming down from stimulus payments than it does reflecting delta variant fears. i think we will return to environment of more pedestrian retail sales reports on average because gains will be driven more by labor market income, not stimulus payments. this is a transition month in that regard. what jumped up the system was a lot of shortages in terms of semi conductors and autos. the ex autos number is probably more accurate read in terms of what it means for the consumer. we are at 6.5% on q3. we have personal consumption slowing to four. a lot of the growth in the next dose go to three quarters, maybe even four quarters, most of us

are expecting will come from restocking. the advent tory shortages that have cropped up -- the inventory shortages that have cropped up were all assuming that over time businesses will help rebuild those stocks. may be a good one to dose go to 3% of growth in the third quarter we are thinking come from inventories. if we do not get that you will get a sharper drop off. lisa: to pile on what you were saying. retail sales and auto you say is the mark -- retail sales ex auto you say is more accurate, it also came in lower than expected. you talk about how the labor market is supposed to pick up from where the stimulus checks have left off, yet the labor market is facing the headwind of the delta variant and the fact that people are staying home more in order to be safe. there is a question of whether this hampers growth. what do you think? michael: it is certainly

possible. on balance i would be more worried about delta variant growth in places like china and southeast asia because of what it could do to intensify supply chain bottlenecks globally. in the u.s., where the delta variant is spreading our states that probably are not going to move to lockdown. i think you might have a compositional shift away from hotels and airlines and face-to-face things back towards goods. we could cehic up in that. -- we could ca pickup -- we could see a heck up in that. -- a hiccup in that. we have consumption slowing down, so i would say we are baking some of that in. tom: you mentioned the inventory dynamic. is the dynamic of exports and imports as important? michael: it is. the goods balance is that a

record deficit. anything that keeps us buying goods will keep us imported materials. if there is a restocking cycle in front of us that means imports will be fairly strong. we seem to be in a situation where both of us were looking for the trade deficit to move back towards the surplus, a smaller deficit. maybe we stay at record highs even longer. the more delta is a problem the more we will stick with our pattern of preferring goods over services and that is likely to keep us importing. jonathan: michael gapen. 1:30 eastern, the chairman of the federal reserve. do you watch or do you take a long lunch? michael: i watch. i always watch. jonathan: good to catch up. lisa: can he say no? tom: he watches at lunch. there's a tv in the bar. jonathan: you watch it at lunch. tom: that's what i do. jonathan: there are people i

respect and economics, michael gapen is one. mike mckee is another. the why is it about, the spread of the delta variant? both said the same thing. this is about the drop off from the stimulus. tom: i go back to ian shepherdson who mentions next month you get more affect on the effect of this horrific pandemic. jonathan: some people might disagree. yields lower but not as low as they were going into the number. down three basis points to 1.24. lisa: i'm coming up with the narrative and i'm rejecting it because it is not that big of a new -- not that big of a move. jonathan: what you have said? lisa: i would've said that perhaps this prevents the fed from tapering earlier and allows growth to run hotter over the long term because some of these intermediate affects would eventually wear off. the stimulus would still be going strong.

it is a minimus to move -- it is a minimal move. jonathan: it is a story i also had ready to go if the print was higher. tom: you have a template ready. lisa: it is not a template. tom: when i say something stupid, you have three options to respond. jonathan: a different set for a different response. tom: tom is a jerk, tom is this. lisa: how many air pots you have? jonathan: nadia lovell will join me later. we count down to the opening bell. futures down .4%. tom: you are leaving us? jonathan: you betcha. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro for now. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. it has become one of the biggest crises in joe biden's presidency. the president offered a defiant defense of his decision to pull u.s. troops out of afghanistan. he acknowledge the situation was far from perfect. allies and opponents suggested the president disregarded concerns the taliban was advancing quickly and that is what led to a humanitarian disaster. the u.s. government is preparing to offer coronavirus booster shots as soon as next month. biden administration officials are expected to recommend the shot eight months after people received their second vaccine dose. the u.s. is facing a new wave of infections fueled by the delta variant. california wildfires about born -- have now burned more than a record one million acres. the dixie fire is the state second largest ever. that fire has destroyed more than 1000 buildings. b&c group revealed the biggest

changes to its businesses. it is planning away from fossil fuels. it will sell all of its gas operations and build a massive line in canada. cathie wood has responded to bets against -- michael murray has taken a position against woods etf. she says she does not think he understands the finance -- the fundamentals. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene getting you ready for an

interesting day. the chairman to speak at some point. and we are following all the news out of washington on the horrific situation in afghanistan. right now on another perfect situation, which is the delta variant. i do not know if is a fourth wave. lisa, to me it is worse today than it was yesterday. that is the trend we are on. lisa: there is a big problem with respect to the transmission and the fact vaccinations are not preventing transmission in some cases. it definitely prevents a bad illness. there is a pall over consumer sentiment we felt friday and we felt on an ongoing basis. it is not over and we seem to be further away. tom: in new york city is about showing your past to get into a restaurant to prove you been vaccinated. for more serious in states, critically to the south. barry ritholtz has been following all of this with

bloomberg opinion. he joins us right now. i thought your note was wonderful about the worst of this now, given where valuations in the market are. is our new correction 18% or more? barry: i don't know. the key difference between dealing with the delta variant today and what we went through a year and a half ago when covid first started crushing the economy and crashing the market, we are kind of out of trillion dollar bullets. there will not be a cares act four to rescue us again. it looks like this will be a persistent drag on the economy. the question is how bad can it get going forward? tom: how do you steel for this? are you allocating far more defensively given what you see in the south of america? barry: i do not think this is

the sort of thing that will make allocators aggressively change their broadest-based allocations. it will not change our stock bond allocations, it will not change our u.s. overseas allocation. the issue is some of the work from home plays are puttering up as we start to reopening. the reopening plays are also puttering out. we are in a twilight between wake and sleep. we are not benefiting from the full reopening, but we are also not in a zone where the amazon, netflix, zoom stocks will do well. that is the challenge. it is very gray, it is not black-and-white. lisa: you've been correctly optimistic about investing in equities over the long term. here we are in a situation where we are in a twilight zone that

will eventually end, yet you have a slow down from the delta variant at the same time as inflationary pressure in supply chain disruptions, critically happy to do with shutdowns in china and elsewhere. how do you take a look at this and say this could have longer-lasting ramifications, if not when it comes to how people invest in the short term, but in the tipping point in growth with united states. barry: is very rare to have both high inflation and a growth slowed down. we are still looking at fairly robust growth. it is just less than it would be if one third of america would grow up and get vaccinated. let's not mince words. the reason the economy is at risk, the reason the recovery is at risk is because a huge swath of americans are anti-science, they are irrational, and they are engaging in tribal behavior

because they want to see the economy fail. that is disappointing. lisa: i do not want to get into the politics of vaccine. barry: there is no way around it. lisa: we have a situation where certain people are not eligible, children 12 and under pump and we do not have full fda approval. as an investor, how are they thinking about this slow down? is it a hiccup on a longer trajectory to a bigger and better economy? barry: what i'm hearing from clients and other investors is frustration because we should be passed this. we should now be a full-blown recovery with no more masking and no more potential lockdowns. 75% or 80% of the population who are eligible, not talking about kids, although that is probably coming next month, as is moving from emergency to full authorization of vaccines. let me remind people, when there

are side effects from vaccines you find out in a matter of weeks and months, not years. not after we have nearly 5 billion shots administered. i do not want to make this about politics, but their people being reckless -- but there are people being reckless, and one of the things i've written to corporate executives is unless you want to see this recovery go to hell you have to step up and show leadership about vaccines. we just saw something from live nation saying if you want to give a show or attend a show you must show proof of vaccination. we need to see more of that type of leadership from the corporate sector. michael: we saw with the atlanta falcons yesterday. barry ritholtz, thank you so much. lisa, a great chart taken from the new york times data where florida's cases in the last seven days per capita are six times greater the new york

state. i did not realize the gap was that great. lisa: a significant portion of new infections have been coming from florida in particular. something like one quarter of the hospitalizations. i will get the data so i can quote it accurately. there is a bifurcation between states that have been more vaccinated and have been having stricter masking policies. i wonder how much the dialogue changes after the fda decides to give full approval to these vaccines? tom: i took that lightly. you mentioned a couple days ago. i think the closer we get to some form of waving the wand by the fda, maybe things change. lisa: in the meantime i wonder how much this weighs on sentiment at a time people feel less confident going out to eat, less confident flying on a plane. canceling vacations. people are concerns about flying to get. tom: i cancel all of my

vacations. lisa: [laughter] is that so. tom: futures date of 19. the tape approves fractionally. dow futures -171. stay with us through the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ >> i have an exclusive western and southern update for bloomberg tv from tennis channel. one of the biggest tops in the pro tour got underway in cincinnati. two time wimbledon champion got up to the perfect start after she took out american medicine keene. after edging the opening 7-5 the stock -- the start needed a single break in the second after an hour and a half. the reigning french open champion also moving on. the world number 10 looking very impressive as she dispatches --

and also got off to a good start. the three-time winners had to work hard. the scott looking for his third crown at the masters 1000 event. ♪

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jonathan: 30 minutes away from the opening bell, the content of the open starts right now.

>> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg -- the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. divided views on the u.s. recovery. >> very strong economic data surprises to the upside. >> the recovery is here. >> a strong economic recovery. >> a lot of concern about demand flow. >> inflation concerns. >> we have seen covid issues arise in country after country. >> there is generally caution in the economy. >> going to be fits and starts. >> teetering on a nice