looking for has been happening internally. >> this looks more like coming down from stimulus payments. >> this will be a grinding market where the biggest challenge continues to be for investors to stay on the market. >> a significant boost in productivity for the next two to three years. >> we know a taper is coming. is it september or december, doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market, -.1%. tom keene following the biggest one-day slide in about a month. tom: the biggest one-day slide in at least twice six days. the drawdown is extraordinary. let's look at broad drawdown

now. down drawdown 1.2%. to be serious, afghanistan and the rest is beginning to color the washington fiscal linkage and that into the market after the economic data we saw yesterday. jonathan: you are right to bring it up. to what degree the issues abroad will overwhelm the effort. you think we are at that point? tom: i think everyone is numb. read the condoleezza rice. we will feature it with annmarie hordern. everyone is starting to think about this. i will suggest this seriously, with great respect to the soldiers that fought and died, we are in shock. only today i my beginning to see the linkages. jonathan: you said you think the administration is in stock. many people responding to something as simple as the retail sales print, but tom is right to bring that up. when you spoke to economist yesterday they believe this was the payback after the stimulus

checks earlier this year. lisa: van emmons came out and -- ben emmons pointed to a correlation between the 10 year yield and the approval rating of the president, there is somewhat of a linkage over the past months. the idea that as his popularity wanes you are seeing treasury yields go down. correlation is not causation -- tom: there is the chicago. lisa: really? we are going right there? there is a coming together of a lot of factors leading to this feeling. jonathan: the outlook feels like it is on a knife's edge. if we got a group of investors together we could have a consensus but it would have low conviction. tom: we have guests with conviction. yesterday they marched down gdp, down to 6.5. i think the conviction is there. i want to emphasize we are all in shock and we have to deal with that.

frankly, i would go so far as to say maybe it is a new jackson hole. jonathan: we will head down to washington in about 10 minutes. here is the price action this wednesday morning. negative a little bit more than .1% on the s&p 500 after yesterday's slide, major drawdown. in the bond market yields unchanged on the 10 year. 1.2650 on tens. euro-dollar 1.1716. lisa: you said something i want to pick up on. there such dispersion interviews. the person who simplifies that is that bank of america, where the yield forecast for the 10 year treasury note is between 1% and 2% depending on the outcome, just to give you a sense of the range of potential interactions with the market given how uncertain people are about the outlook. adding to that uncertainty come 8:30 we get u.s. july building permits after yesterday's disappointing data with respect

to homebuilder sentiment weighing on some of these figures is the high house prices. the fact that lumber prices have come down but the input prices are much higher than they have been, including labor, which is in short supply. 8:30 former treasury secretary jack lewis joining bloomberg television. interesting to see what he says about infrastructure and how much he thinks the biden administration plans have been stymied by some of the lack of popularity around his recent moves. at an international level, the way to counter china's belt and road initiative's. how much are we looking at on the margins of the big three, the top of the federal reserve members looking to taper? i was struck by the fact food prices have gone up 31% in july year-over-year. this is not something central banks take into account. when you look at the real-world consequences of this, perhaps

you get a better sense of why the university of michigan survey was such a huge disappointment on friday and why you're seeing retail sales disappointing. jonathan: subject good point. it is the different -- shut -- such a good point. it is the difference between what policymakers measure and what people on main street feel. tom: with the uproar of bill dudley, of course supporting bloomberg with his good academics, when he was new york fed president it was something about ipads. there is a disconnect and it is tangible. i sympathize with our viewers and listeners. they do not care about the dallas mean. jonathan: that is not with the bill looks like at the end of the month. he did not get to cut off the bits you do not like. maybe you do. i don't. let's get to our first guest, jeff henriksen, university of oxford senior fellow. equity still the best pool to be fishing in.

why? jeff: thanks for having me. it is been great listening to you guys talk about everything. we do not look at asset classes as a monolithic security you need to embrace or avoid. we look at every asset classes an opportunity. when we look at the market today we think equities still provide the best opportunity for investors to find ideas to place capital. that said, it is becoming more and more of a stock pickers market. you have to understand the type of businesses you are buying, the valuations in which you are buying them. if i have to pick one asset class i'm spending time diving into and burning where i can find the pricing come equities is still that asset classes. that is a function of where we are with the current recovery, although we have seen headwinds recently. the recovery is still in place. inflation is running hotter than most people would like to see but you still have $4.5 trillion

stuck in money markets? i saw the other day that negative yielding assets, dollar assets globally are around $17 trillion. where we are vis-a-vis the recovery, i think capital will go to equity. tom: buried in your note you talk about pe compression, where we get the ratio so we look at compressed. jonathan golub was at 5000, feels the same way. how much can market pe compressed? jeff: my concern with pe compression is around inflation. the worst possible environment for stocks in my opinion is the period where you have slow growth and high inflation. in the 1970's you saw p/e ratios go from around 18 times to below

10, because that is because inflation is very value destructive. part of the potential for inflation will be what happens with inflation. that said, i think a lot of companies, i do not know if i buy the idea the s&p multiple is meaningful in any way. the reason for that is two full. one, if you look at historic multiples in the s&p you have to look at what the s&p has been made of. if you go back 10, 15, 20, 30 years, a lot more commodity exposure. if you look at it today, the composure is much more heavily weighted towards tech, which has a lot of investing through their p&l. i'm not sure if earnings are meaningful number to put a multiple on front company that is growing rapidly and investing a lot through their p&l. we are expensing the cost to go out and fly our customer, but those customers have long lives and can be very sticky. there's an argument you should

be capitalizing those costs. multiples are tricky thing and i think you have to keep an open mind with how you look at it. lisa: how do you then evaluate companies you see is a particularly good stop pick? -- a particularly good stock pick? jeff: we look at two types of situation. we focus on finding traditional value traits or mean reversion trades. equity companies are trading meaningfully below what they are fundamentally worth. then we try to find higher quality businesses where we think the growth component and reinvestment opportunities the company has is understood by the market. those are the two buckets we look at. last year, the first bucket is where we found all the opportunities. most of those have been reverted. i'm not seeing a lot of opportunity in the deeper value part of the market. what i'm finding more opportunities on our smaller growing businesses where i think

the growth opportunity is mispriced. how we try to evaluate that is we try to identify what is the investment opportunity and what is the true amount these businesses are reinvesting. we try to look at the p&l and we pull out expenses we think should be capitalized and reconfigure the balance sheet to try to get an understanding of the incremental returns they are earning and the value they are creating. to do that, you cannot just apply a multiple to a bunch of companies like it is a monolithic thing. you have to get in and understand the economics of the businesses to do that. jonathan: good to catch up. come back soon. jeff henriksen. some things to think about equity features down more than .1%. whisper away from all-time highs after yesterday's move lower? tom: the vix 18.8. what i would point out is the swiss franc, you look at the euro swissie and it is the one

indicator that is giving us a little bit of angst this morning. jonathan: i would add to that. i would say look at what is happening with energy. a real concern around energy come equity and credit, but also the commodity itself. a lot of people affected rethink the demand scenarios. we are talking about a covid a limitation strategy in places like china. that means the tolerance is a much lower compared to the united states and europe in these places begin to introduce restrictions and start to shut down economies again. i am looking at new zealand. that is starting to have an effect. tom: the interdependencies are evident as we are in shock over afghanistan. jonathan: we will head down to washington, d.c. and catch up with our washington correspondent who was in the room yesterday with the national security advisor jake sullivan. that is next. from new york, this is bloomberg.

♪ laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. u.s. says they have assurance of safe passage from the taliban. about 11,000 americans are in the country, roughly 3500 troops on the ground providing security at kabul airport. there also numerous taliban checkpoints. boris johnson rejecting calls for a formal inquiry on afghanistan. he says the taliban took over the country even faster than they expected. johnson also said it would've been impossible for british troops to stay in afghanistan without an american military presence. texas governor greg abbott has

used executive orders and court rulings to fight masked mandates and other anti-pandemic measures. now he is isolating and the governor's mansion after testing positive for breakthrough case of the coronavirus. abbott is fully vaccinated. his receiving antibody treatment. t-mobile says over what he million records were in a cyber -- over 40 million records were taken in a cyber attack. t-mobile is offering people affected by the attack does their years of identity protection services. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are engaging diplomatically at the same time with allies in regional

countries and with united nations to address the situation in afghanistan. we are in contact with the taliban to ensure the safe passage of people to the airport. jonathan: attempts news conference in washington, d.c. that was jake sullivan, the national security advisor. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we'll catch up with annmarie hordern in just a moment. your equity market down six. we declined a little more than .1%. yields unchanged. 1.2667. your fed minutes out a little bit later. tom: global markets late in to what we see in afghanistan -- global markets linked into what we see afghanistan. let's look at one of the opinions. from secretary of state condoleezza right -- condoleezza rice. technically our longest war was not afghanistan, it was korea.

70 years later that we have more than 20,000 american troops in a mission that even the sophisticated south korean army cannot deter the north alone. annmarie hordern has read the document. we are beginning to see nuanced opinion. is anyone defending the president? annmarie: it is hard to find someone defending the president. i have spoken to some congressmen, especially the gentle men from massachusetts, the congressman who served in afghanistan. he said it is time we should be leaving the country. this is the debate. we need to draw the distinction. the administration wants to have the debate on whether the-ites state should have troops on the ground in afghanistan. this country has debated that for years. the debate many in washington want to have come and you saw that from senator bob mendez, with the state a letter to the

administration, is about why was this withdrawal so chaotic? tom: it is a look back. with your work to the press conference, there is trying to be a look forward. what is the look forward this morning for the biden administration? annmarie: the president returned from camp david yesterday evening and today we know the president will have a speech on covid. covid is certainly an issue for this administration, but for me that signals they are trying to move past and change this narrative that is in the press about afghanistan. now this has become quite a dark cloud over the administration as they are trying to get underway other projects. i would say from yesterday, from that brief, one thing was clear. the august 31 deadline about the withdrawal will be one of those dates we need to watch. they were hesitant to say whether that would be extended. they said they are working with the task at hand.

certainly there working every day to try to get american civilians, personnel, and afghans out. there is a date on august 31. what we are hearing on reports on the ground as the taliban is starting to circle deep trouble -- starting to circle the kabul airport. the path forward is precarious. lisa: a lot of people pointing fingers at president biden saying how could he get this so wrong given that many people on the ground could have predicted it would've taken a lot shorter period of time or afghanistan defaulted taliban control. who is advising him as he plots a path forward? annmarie: his entire national security team, the secretary of state, the secretary of defense. this is a group of people come east on that picture they sent out about who is advising the president. there is going to be a lot of questions as well and -- as was this an intelligence error or a policy error.

on july 8, the president said it is not inevitable the taliban would take over afghanistan. at that moment the taliban had more controlled districts than the afghan government. for many it was inevitable. what the administration says is the actual taliban at the gates coming into the capital, sitting in the presidential palace, they said that was shockingly fast. lisa: how much credibility has the biden administration lost? we asked this yesterday. we continue to ask it. are we getting any sense of what the answer is today? annmarie: i think they have lost a tremendous matter credibility when you see the letters being panned to the administration. this is not just from the opposition republican party. this is from inside, his most staunch supporters. senators and congressmen and women alike wanting answers on

why this withdrawal was so chaotic and why potentially the administration put american men and women in harm's way. that is on the domestic side. you have international credibility. it seems the european leaders are exacerbated with what is going on with the americans. you heard that yesterday and this morning from boris johnson, the prime minister of the united kingdom. jonathan: talk to us about the president's approval ratings. are they starting to go in the wrong direction? annmarie: they are. there is a report that shows the approval rating on afghanistan has started to sour, where this had white approval amongst americans on the withdrawal in april, that has now dropped 15 points. as all americans, especially in age of social media, are seeing within instants what is happening on the ground. this is done to become or worrisome for the president's credibility and approval rating and could potentially paint a

very dark picture over the remaining agenda for his administration. jonathan: thank you. our washington correspondent in d.c.. there are two questions, whether you stay or leave, that is a decision. how you leave is a separate discussion. whether you leave or stay, the president very much aligned with popular opinion leaves. that is been the case for a long time. how you leave is where there's been disagreement. you can start to see that come through in the approval rating. tom: it is in the zeitgeist this morning. our job is to police the zeitgeist. i do not think we are ready for a look back. we have to worry about today at the airport and try to figure out what are we going to do about tens of thousands of people that should or could will exit. emmanuel macron mentioning his own interpretation. jonathan: you mentioned a couple

of foreign leaders. jake sullivan was asked if the president had spoken to those leaders and the answer was no. the president did subsequently speak to boris johnson. that was yesterday. a lot of people disappointed with that. tom: i agree. to be the major message for the markets, this is still an ongoing story, even as annmarie mentions washington is in a look back study mode. jonathan: for last couple of months every morning we've had the same discussion in washington, what is happening with fiscal, with infrastructure spending. we have not discussed that now. that is what you're bringing up, whether that has faded into the background. tom: i go back to the politics of it. specie blows he is under siege from her moderates -- speaker pelosi is under siege from her moderates. her moderates are in districts that care about afghanistan. jonathan: and the bond market,

yields unchanged. crude, a bounce up a four day losing streak. we are firmer by .5%. from new york city this morning, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, here's the price action this wednesday morning. we are negative on the s&p. we are down by seven after yesterday's move lower. major drawdown of .7% on the s&p. nasdaq futures basically unchanged. small caps down by .3%. going into fed minutes a little bit later. lisa mentioned the range of outcomes we could see on a 10 year yield. that bank of america note. let's talk about it. they could see a scenario where we end this year at 2% on 10. they could see another scenario where we end this year below 1%. they say we sit at the threshold

of a major bifurcation of scenarios. when people scratch their heads and say what are we doing here? where do we go next? how can you have conviction about where we go next if you have no idea why we are down here? we can talk about through the program. switch up the board and finish on this. we touched on it yesterday. i want to talk about it this morning. how quickly things can change in a place like new zealand. all of a sudden the new zealand central bank has to sit there and say i don't think we can hike interest rates. they couldn't hike interest rates overnight. that's a stronger dollar. the kiwi down by .4%. that's the issue. the central bank is worried about the economy getting too hot and then they can't hike rates because the policymakers, the government has got other ideas. pushing forward with this

elimination strategy around covid. people who live in america, look at what's happening in china, new zealand, australia and how different this pandemic has been dealt with. you decide which country do you want to live in? a shut down after one case, three-day lockdown? that's a different world tom. tom: it is a different world and critically in island nation which i've always thought changes the discussion. the ratio on new zealand dollar, ust is the numerator. jonathan: i tried. the heritage of the city of london. tom: you are a guy with a british accent. let's segue into what lindsay is worried about. the strength and power of the american consumer. we see that in target moments ago with some very good numbers, a shared buyback announced.

the stocks are turning on pretty good numbers. it will be interesting to see targets digital presence after a little bit of digital worry yesterday at walmart. i look at where we are on the consumer, is there a clarity to what the consumer is doing right now or is it a mystery into the end of the year? >> i think the consumer is on relatively solid footing. there's a tremendous amount of wealth that has been accumulated over the last six to 12 months but we also know that a tremendous amount of stimulus is beginning to fade. i think we see that pullback of stimulus reflected in yesterday's retail sales numbers coming in at a big disappointment. >> out much are you looking at this idea that we are seeing sentiment decline?

how much can we tell the consumers really are feeling the cramp of higher prices and spending less as a result? >> i think they are feeling the crimp of higher prices. ppi is up near 6%. we see that translating into how consumers are shifting the goods and services but the overall nominal decline in how they are willing to spend. this growing fear of the rise of the delta variant. creating a level of fear that while he may not go back to the owners restrictions we saw during 2020, we are starting to see ask mandates come back in and even the fear itself could serve to curtail consumer behavior in terms of going out into the market, feeling comfortable interacting in

crowds or around other people and that could slow the recovery in the labor market and by extension reduce the outlook for overall gdp. >> there's an argument that there is a psychological difference between spending money on higher prices with stimulus checks this is money that you earned. as the stimulus checks wear off and people actually see that they are spending the money they get in their paycheck on that much higher food will that they are going to spend less and cut back. do you see evidence to support this? >> we do here peripheral and anecdotal reports that consumers are increasingly sensitive of spending that hard earned money as opposed to a check that is coming in the mail. we are sort of splitting hairs when we talk about the decision to spend on elevated price item. for the average american when they see that check dwindle ever

so more quickly in terms of filling up the family car, nine groceries, when it is your hard-earned money as opposed to tax dollars, it takes a bigger hit to that mental outlook that you have for not only your financial condition but the economy. tom: there's many people looking at 2021 gdp over 6% off of a boom economy. got a more cautious view gdp under 6% as well. i've got target giving me high single digit look forward. we get not a soggy economy like 3% but a less than boom economy as you call for and still have corporate america do well and have the consumer do well? >> absolutely. i think the back half of the year is going to be noticeably reduced. that's not to say the economy is losing significant momentum or that the recovery itself is

losing footing but we are looking at the composition of growth. when you talk about that government component trillions upon trillions of dollars, nobody contribute into growth in the back half of the year, we would expect that headline number to subside and we are looking at a number of closer to 3% to 4% gdp. there is a bigger concern going forward that as we start to see the economy recalibrate and consumers slow down to a more sustainable pathway based on income growth it's likely we returned back to the growth levels we saw prior to the pandemic which is closer to about 2%. tom: if we get a piegza economy, how do they afford real estate? >> it's a good question and it is something that policymakers

are very concerned about. we heard several fed presidents argue that asset purchases are no longer helping in terms of job creation but they are mostly helping drive up prices of interest-rate sensitive goods such as a and cars. home prices specifically have risen dramatically over the last year. this is marking the biggest gain in available data going back to 1988 so there is a very big concern that a lot of these accommodative policies while benevolent in intention are actually creating more barriers and burdens to sustainable longer-term growth for the consumer and the economy as we look out into 2021 and beyond. jonathan: thank you. we have to leave it there. just turn back to those target earnings.

comp sales up 8.9%. the forward look is decent. second-half sales growth in the high single digits. the $15 billion stock buyback in the mix. before we draw too many conclusions on their stock moves this morning, this name was up more than 40% this year coming into earnings. up more than 40% year to date and the numbers are pretty decent. tom: in the last decade of 21% per year from boring retail. jonathan: i want to talk about this company as an employer. they had to bring their minimum-wage up to about $15 and i wonder if $15 in this country gets it done at the moment. tom: it depends where you are. peter coy writing up the new york times, we thank him for all his work for years at bloomberg. he goes right there on wages and

the answer is it's hugely regional. jonathan: $15, does it get it done? lisa: for who? as the big chain stores increase minimum wages, and how much pressure you see that in local businesses to compete? companies that have a smaller footprint. i also want to say profit margins did tighten here. interesting to see what the cfo will discuss with you in terms of going forward. or if they have the scale to maneuver through this. jonathan: they raised their outlook earlier this year. if you expect the price pressure to persist, do you think the consumer tolerance will persist as well. lisa: this is why it is so interesting that we are getting the delta slowdown in tandem

with increasing worries about inflationary pressures. that could pressure sales at the same time that consumers are seeing higher costs. it might reduce their willingness to absorb some of the higher stickers. jonathan: the headline numbers out of target pretty decent. we will catch up with the cfo a little bit later. your bond market unchanged. yields not doing much at the moment. crude to bounce back .8%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro on a beautiful morning in new york city. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i'm laura wright. the u.s. is trying to keep the taliban from accessing assets belonging to afghanistan's central bank read the biden

administration has frozen almost none $.5 billion. the taliban is breaking with its own past in afghanistan. the group will prevent afghan territory from being used to target any other country especially the u.s.. there has been concerns that terror groups such as al qaeda would be allowed to build base there. in haiti, a tropical storm forced a temporary halt to rescue searches. authorities warned some areas in the quake could get up to 15 inches of rain. almost 10,000 people were injured. covid vaccinations have risen to levels not seen since the spring. the number of americans getting the first dose of a vaccine has climbed most half a million a day. the bump has been driven by counties in the south that were among the most resistant to getting the shot.

a fast wave of infections has sent thousands to the hospital. chinese stocks are becoming the assets not to own. george soros has trimmed his china exposure. one of the world's largest headphones says chinese adrs are uninvestable. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what i'm concerned about is those certain states that have not enough of their high-risk populations vaccinated putting their hospitals into crisis. we have a regional problem and they are under stress in the south where they are getting inundated with totally preventable covid-19 cases. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down three. we are lighter by almost .1% on the s&p 500 after yesterday's massive move lower. just bating you a little bit. no response? yields down almost a basis point. euro-dollar unchanged. crude bouncing back .9%. tom: a lot of crosscurrents right now. not to use the cliche but it really works here. jonathan: the threshold of what could be a major bifurcation of

scenarios. we could have a situation where yields in the year north of 2% or south of 1%. that's a difficult environment to operate in. tom: that's a key point. corporations will adapt. they are malleable, they will make intelligent decisions. she always makes intelligent decisions on this horrific pandemic. in emergency medicine, but when fortune that, a student of medicine. we have a colorado river that's drying up, we have a doubt that's unimaginable. this morning i saw headline and i went really? alabama has negative icu beds. do you detect an outrage in the south that links the medical establishment towards the people that desperately need to get vaccinated? is the outrage there? >> definitely.

health care providers are burnt out. there's a lack of beds and the challenges, people don't die of just covid. people are still having heart attacks, strokes, sepsis, injuries and there is insufficient resources to treat all those other people who may be vaccinated who don't have covid but definitely have medical emergencies. lisa: we are seeing an increasing number of people getting vaccinated. the u.s. covid vaccination rate rose to levels not seen since the spring led by the south. how much is this the silver lining if there is any about the uptick in cases? we are seeing more people get vaccinated particularly in more hesitant areas. >> we are busting that myth. covid is a real disease that gets people really sick and vaccines protect against those real diseases that get you really sick. the silver lining is we are now taking covid seriously.

people are getting vaccinated. will it be adequate? i don't know. lisa: how much are you concerned about the uptick in other types of illnesses? have we seen the worst of it or are we on a pretty scary trajectory at this point? >> the whole moving to indoors and being exposed to individuals, we did see a surge during the winter months. the other challenge is people were not exposed to influenza and rotavirus -- those diseases are coming back with a vengeance and are higher numbers and out of the normal seasonal range due to our lack of previous exposure. tom: the trend here is we are all putting our masks back on. i think the mask is x percent

are graduated -- -- are vaccinated and then there's the mix of a given society. should we be putting our masks back on? >> yes. absolutely. that is the cdc recommendation. it's time to put our masks back on. tom: give us the why please. >> there's a couple of different factors here. we know that preventing transmission is a two plot point. vaccine gives you some antibodies. it's not 100% effective. the second part is decreasing opportunities for transmission both physical and social which means social distancing greater than six feet apart and masks are permanent barrier that prevents transmission of the virus. it makes sense to put masks back

on. lisa: people with children saying we don't want our children wearing masks in school. rick to santos has been incredibly controversial actually banning mask mandates and this has created a whole rebellion among the florida school system. what do you say to people who argue stop making children the frontlines? we get a lot of hate mail from people saying why are you encouraging children to get vaccinated. can you say what the science shows about children wearing masks? >> it's not binary good or bad but we can make school as safe as possible for interaction. the way to do that is pods, temperature checks, screenings and masks. we have known children to go to school wearing masks. they are not harmful.

i have a three-year-old who is consistent with her mask. has become joyful since we started in person activity. i don't know that there is any evidence that shows that masks are harmed. it would be preferable to have our children going to school playing in that playground just how it used to be but we are not there yet. jonathan: johns hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine. sometimes my job is to try and translate tom keene. he just wrote a message that said 511 louise. the only thing i can think is that is a yankees reference. tom: twitter is lit up like a candle over the august fold. the good news to show you the red sox optimism, the good news is the fold is happening in august and not in april. lisa: you had to translate this while we were talking about covid.

tom: this guy is like 15 years old and he came in and got it done. jonathan: so we have the yankees sweep. tom: with the trades and that momentum they just brought it on and now 1000 of the decimal point ahead of the red sox -- jonathan: is that called the wild-card spot? tom: the red sox are even being discussed for this is a great plus over last year but the yankees look awfully good. jonathan: is my baseball knowledge better than your soccer knowledge? tom: there is no question about that. what happened to gray list with man city? what does he get, like $50,000 every time he touches the ball?

jonathan: something like that. one came into the season. tom: i watched the highlights. man city was the low lights. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro. still much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> a lot of the market is already corrected. >> this feels more like coming down from stimulus payments then it does reflect invariant fears. >> this is going to be ash reflecting variant -- reflecting variant fears. >> this is going to be a boost in productivity for the next two to three years. >> the biggest disagreement on wall street, is it september, is it december, guess what? it doesn't really matter. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a low conviction market. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%.