>> although we've seen some headwinds, recovery is still in place. >> this feels more like coming down from stimulus payments then it does were slipping delta fears. >> it takes a bigger hit that mental outlook. >> this is going to be a grounding market -- a grinding market where the biggest challenge is continuing to stay in markets. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

thank you for being with us. the simulcast on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. red and green on the screen. a fractionally better tape than the snooze fest of two hours ago. jonathan: bond yields higher by a couple of basis points, let's call it 1.28% on tens. it is onto jackson hole. that's the next stop for this market. tom: but we've got a little bit of international relations in the way for it. what do you see from europe that changes the confidence, given all of the trauma and afghanistan? jonathan: on afghanistan specifically come on the military side of things? tom: it folds over into the body language as we heard from prime minister johnson, his phone call with the president. it is a stew, if you will, into the weekend. jonathan: if there was some upset, it is the lack of communication we have seen between the president and foreign leaders. when jake sullivan hosted that news conference, the national security advisor said the president still had spoken --

still hadn't spoken to those foreign leaders. it was a surprise for many that the president had yet to speak with a foreign leader at that point in the news conference yesterday afternoon. tom: global markets, and yet within it, dollar strength. lisa: dollar strength and a time of global uncertainty with the delta variant. this is the seventh straight day that the -- has been partially shuttered. this is the third most act container port out there in the world, and we have divergence of ships. we have delays that have been furthered. how much does this play into inflationary pressures reducing consumer confidence in the united it's -- in the united states? tom: euro-dollar, let's be clear, we haven't broken $1.17 level, have we? jonathan: where there now. we came really close earlier

this morning. the low was $1.1702. what is the outlook for europe compared to the united states? we can talk about the fiscal impulse for america a little later this morning. then to asia, very dependent on what happens in a way that maybe the united states is not. this is where you start to fold all of these things together. what is taking place in china right now will have demand impact and a supply impact as well. the big change over the last year, we had a decade, more than that, of china exporting disinflation. because of supply constraints, is it exporting? quite the opposite. it is a change. tom: liz ann sonders talking this up this morning on twitter. you wonder if goods diminishes bit, what that does to the data. the vix comes in from 18. jonathan: yields up a couple of

basis points. no drama. crude up by $0.80, up 2%. just four days of losses on crude. several weeks of that as well. there was a real pain a couple of weeks back. crude has been really soft recently. it has been a struggle. any people following the commodity market have had to make a change. tom: this is going to be interesting. nuveen is out of chicago, and the heritage is municipal bonds, perhaps an older demographic worried about retirement. brian nick joins us, nuveen chief investment strategist. you've got a single sentence in your note which really gets to the heart of it. for all of the people of the nuveen world and even the "bloomberg surveillance" world, what do we do if rates don't rise? what do we do with our actuarial assumption and our goal of trying to retire like jon ferro

with a massive pot? brian: thanks for having me. there's really no good options. you can try to do what you've been doing, tolerate lower returns, but frankly, the stock market is valued much more highly than it was 10 years ago, so if you are looking back in 2010 and trying to replicate the performance, it is going to be extremely challenging, especially if yields don't increase substantially. they may in the short term with the taper, but we are not going back to 5%, 6%, 7% on the 10 year. you can try to diversify out of some of that traditional fixed income. you can look at taking on more credit risk. you can also look at alternatives. real estate, income producing sectors can be a bigger part of the portfolio. or somebody who needs that yield in their portfolio. there are still options out there, but it is those income producing investors that make up a large portion of client bases that are really struggling for what to do at the moment. jonathan: can they go for

dividend income? capital returns have been decent as well. if that a strategy still? brian: if you look at a dividend yield, you will end up with a more defensive mix of sectors, which has done well recently as yields have been falling again, so it tends to interest rates because these's equities -- these sections of the equity market tend to look more attractive as yields are falling, but if you are looking at more dividend growth, it will be a little less picky when it comes to what sectors you are invested in. you can look at companies that are looking to grow not just earnings, but dividend as well. ultimately, i think reduced volatility, reduce exposure to the overly defensive parts of the market, not a complete substitute for fixed income because of the volatility. lisa: how much conviction do you have right now? in a bank of america research note, they see yields could go

to 1% or 2%. they are not sure. brian: that sounds like a reasonable range to us for the past year. i think 2% at this point would be a bit of a stretch, but we do have conviction that rates ought to be going up from here and will be going up from here. some of the pressure becomes the fed. right now they are under no pressure at all to the taper. markets are kind of hinting that the fed may be making a mistake by moving to early on the taper. real interest rates have been creeping up this week. when you have that kind of dynamic you tend to leave rates pretty stable, but i do think eventually, interest rates will win out and we get a sort of flattening normalization in breakevens, and if you're looking at the growth component with the pressure taken off from the taper and the expectations of raising rates sometime in the next two to three years, real interest rates should start to come up, and that will push the long and higher as well,

although the yield curve probably never gets as steep as it was in the pre-financial crisis. lisa: you have said the market seems to be indicating that the fed perhaps is making a mistake in tapering to early. you pointed to real yields. i am wondering -1% yield is perhaps indicating an accident. where should real yields actually be? brian: if you think they should be tied at all to real gdp outlook, it should be strongly positive right now, but that has not been the case in a long time. when i look in the direction of real yields, they are in is highly negative territory, negative one .1% or 1.2%, where the real 10 year yield is extremely low. if you look at the direction, you have seen a bit of a lift from the bottom a couple of weeks ago. when i see those two things together, it is usually a sign that the market is worried the fed is going to tighten to quickly. we have seen that it very specific times.

the last on the market was cautioning the fed about moving too quickly, but in terms of the magnitude, it has not been huge. it will be interesting to see the fed minutes this week, and what the fed has to say jackson hole next week. jonathan: brian, thank you. investors can live in a low growth, low inflation world. we now have to operate in that world. we've had 10 years of it. policymakers can't operate in a low growth, low inflation world. the fed doesn't want to operate in a low inflation world. policymakers in d.c., and i am talking about politicians, they can't operate in a low growth world. what is the most toxic mix for investors right now? it is decelerating growth and persistently high inflation? i am not talking about stagflation. i am talking about decelerating growth and persistent inflation into next year. let's fold that into what we heard from norway's wealth fund

boss about 30 minutes ago. with equities at all-time highs and bond yields near all-time lows, those two things are really difficult if we are about to see decelerating growth and persistently high inflation. that is toxic for this market if that is the state of play going into next year. tom: that is a constructive state of play. i think there's some nuances there, and one of them is just the resiliency of more open economies to succeed and fail. you see that was experiments. here's the headline from joe feldman that came out moments ago, his report on target. i had no idea 17% of target sales is digital. that is innovation. jonathan: and they are processing a lot of those things in store. order online, pick up in-store. it has been a big change for main street. tom: i'm behind on this story.

david stubbs i thought was brilliant on this with j.p. morgan, frankly pushing against the caution we heard from oslo. jonathan: have a look at some of the e-commerce numbers out of target. some really tidy performance from target, and that is really reflected in the stock. tom: i would suggest fossils like me are out of touch with the technological wallop that is out there, including the technology of the new york yankees to deliver power in the middle of the lineup. jonathan: was that another baseball reference? was that for lisa? lisa: thanks. tom: the mets are going the other way. lisa: we don't need to talk about them. tom: steve cohen will spend $1 trillion today on the mets. jonathan: let's not talk about baseball. 1.2734% on tens. futures down 0.1%. what i show this morning.

all that energy is overwhelming. it is too much. [laughter] from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm la wright. a group of congressional democrats and republicans and president biden to delay full u.s. troop withdrawal from afghanistan. according to "the new york times," 44 lawmakers want to extend the august 31 deadline so the troops can help american citizens, allies, and vulnerable afghans leave the country. the president has authorized the deployment of 6000 troops to help with the evacuation. president biden will unveil a plan today that will give more americans corona vaccine booster shots -- americans coronavirus vaccine booster shots. the president's plan calls for high-risk groups including health care workers in the elderly to get a third shot as soon as next month. once again, target has topped wall street sales and earnings expectations.

still, i slowdown in growth raise questions about how much longer those results can last. target has been arguably the biggest winner among major retailers during the pandemic. its stock has surged more than 40% this year, but it has not outperformed expectations the way it did in 2020. lowe's raised its full-year forecast after better-than-expected quarterly sales. gains in the professional business helped offset declines of do-it-yourself customers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pm johnson: i do not believe deploying tens of thousands of british troops to fight the taliban is an option -- and i

appreciate their sincerity, but i did not believe that is an option. jonathan: prime minister boris johnson speaking in an emergency debate in parliament. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down five, negative on the s&p a little more than zero point 1%. yields higher by about a single basis point on the 10 year to 1.27%. crude up almost 1% to $67.21. afghanistan still very much top of mind worldwide. tom: you know this or than anyone, it is about migration. it is europe, let's pick berlin. it is a big difference in miles for a great migration. why don't you bring in the wonderful therese raphael? jonathan: therese raphael joins

us from bloomberg opinion. that's a start there come on the response you have witnessed from the united kingdom off the back of some pretty chaotic images over the weekend. therese: today in parliament which has been recalled to debate the afghan crisis, you have mp after mp on both sides of the aisle criticizing the government policies, its failure to anticipate the fall of kabul, to get refugees and those who helped the british military, but also those who are vulnerable out, to define the policy a little more clearly. back to johnson statement, he took a very different line than president biden. he did not criticize the afghan military. he said very pointedly that the west could not continue this

u.s. led mission without american logistics, airpower, and money. jonathan: you've identified the difference between johnson and the speech from president biden. one similarity is continuously bringing up should we stay or should we leave when, for many people, the issue has been how we left, how the united states left, how the u.k. left. why the chaos that we saw over the weekend? therese: that is the open question, and the u.k. government i think doesn't have any better answers to it than washington has provided so far. many mps have asked why, when boris johnson knew there would be a withdrawal, why there was not more done to supply has its for british citizens. you have visas issued after the

embassy had been shut down. so very much an open question, and i think there will be an investigation of that. we had many quotes from johnson himself very recently, saying that the taliban were in no position to win military victory. so i think both allies have questions to answer here. but of course, the u.k. military withdrawal really began back in 2012 when david cameron announced the decision to end the uk's military operation there, which happened in 2014, so there wasn't the same presence the u.s. had. lisa: what will this due to the relationship between the u.s. and the u.k. going forward, if anything? or is it basically another bump along the road to restore that alliance? therese: i think on the surface, you will obviously hear the reassurances that the alliance is strong. we heard the call between boris

johnson and president biden. but beneath that, there is a change here. the assumption after donald trump was voted out of office was that the alliance would return to a footing that was more familiar from the post-cold war period, one of collaboration, cooperation, reinforcing the international rules-based order. i think that is very clearly over from the perspective of a lot of of a lot of -- from the perspective of a lot of european allies, and america's appetite for intervention hasn't locations for security in europe. there's the question of narcotics trafficking and the all-important question of whether terrorists and extremists will again be able to more easily recede in that region and in britain itself. tom: there's an understanding here over any number of decades of the expansion of "liberal democracy."

let's say in america, it was brought forward by neoconservatives. is there any equivalent british neoconservative, or is that a uniquely american segment, philosophy? therese: i think the british equivalent is very different. first of all, on the and economic policy, -- on social and economic policy, it is quite far from what we would call neocon in the u.s. but the british conservatives i think are more committed to a more internationalist role. as you said in your intro, this is about geography. we're just closer to the troubled spots in the world here in london, and i think that dictates a lot of the debate here. there's also, of course, a memory of the role winston churchill played in world war ii. hyped as it is sometimes, that plays a role in the sense that the u.k. needs to act to consolidate the rules-based

international order and project certain values abroad. that is now really clashed with the limitations of britain's military capable of he's, and the u.s. administration's willingness to engage outside of the u.s. in areas where it perceives vital interest. jonathan: great to get your view on what is happening at the moment. therese raphael, bloomberg opinion editor. philosophy is so important. tom: it is. thomas barfield with us the other day was such an honor. professor barfield knows the underlying philosophy and the tribes of afghanistan. that is why i am less this morning in the look back, whimsy we got it wrong. clearly we did. i am interested in the tribal dynamics and the taliban in the coming two weeks. jonathan: we've got to think a bout the people left behind and talk about the people who served there. i thing a lot of us have spoken

to friends, family who did serve there. i spoke to my brother-in-law recently, and he was not surprised that the afghan army fell as quickly as it did. he did several tours of anniston -- of afghanistan. i remember him going off for a long time and just praying he would come back, and luckily. . for us, he did others didn't -- and luckily for us, he did. others didn't. for people who did lose family members, they might have the view that we should pull out. they might think that we should stay. one place you can find universal agreement is how upset people were by the chaos over the weekend, that has still not been sufficiently addressed just by this administration. it has not been sufficiently addressed anywhere, including in the u.k., and as therese said, including from the prime minister. tom: the distinction of that debate is witnessed by condoleezza rice and richard haass, in should we have left a stub force to provide

assistance. i don't have an answer. jonathan: there's a lot of pain. coming up, jack lew, former u.s. treasury secretary. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide, your equity market is lower by 0.1%. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. negative little more than .1% on the s&p. on the bond market yields higher by almost one basis point. with economic data here is michael mckee. michael: we have the housing starts numbers. everybody is keeping an eye on the housing sector. it has contributed a lot to gdp. housing starts fall 7% in july. something of a surprise. there was an expectation they might drop 2.6%. they were up 6.3% in june. building permits show more confidence. they were down in june.

they are up 2.6%. housing starts have been difficult to track because we have seen shortages of lumber, high prices for construction materials, then they came down again, a shortage of construction workers. this suggests we remain on track , even if not in the same magnitude. 1,534,000 annual rate for housing starts. tom: can you glean price from this? will price continue to go moonshot? michael: the price would be going up if they cannot build enough houses. that has been an issue. not just the cost of borrowing money, which is cheap, but the fact there is so little inventory. single-family starts did rise by 2.5% above the number last year in july. 4.5% in june.

single-family homes take a breather. jonathan: the market not doing much with this. 1.2684 on tens coming out of it. fitbits. what -- fed minutes. what are you looking for. michael: we are looking to see what they said about tapering, whether they told jay powell to announce policy change in jackson hole and what they were thinking about in terms of how they would go about it. did they get a presentation from staff on what rate they would cut back on purchases? some detail, but you also have to remember this was the end of july. since then we have had a rise in covid cases changing people's minds about what might happen. jonathan: they might be dated already. tom: is a changed story with economic data and their horrific data out of the south of the nation. it is a movable target 10 days

out from jackson hole. this is a great pleasure. not that he did it awfully young, but he did it across multiple platforms of public service. you know jack lew as -- far more was his duty at state. i want to go to leon panetta's incendiary comments equating afghanistan to bay of pigs in 1961. from kabul to havana in 1961, are there similarities for this nation? >> i think we are going through an incredibly tragic time right now with the fall of afghanistan. i think the moment calls for looking forward, not back. the evacuation of people who

want to leave afghanistan is the job right now. the fact that that operation is moving ahead shows there was planning to deal with a great deal of uncertainty. there will be time after this to look back and ask the questions. i think for right now the job number one is to keep moving forward and get as many people, americans and people who helped our effort there who want to leave the country out of the country. tom: all would agree you've been a class act about avoiding the republican-democrat sniping we see day after day. assist us with the institutional weakness that was there when the trump administration. did any of this occur because state was institutionally weaker or our intelligent communities were institutionally weaker? jacob: i think the four years of

the trump administration weakened many institutions in terms of the ability of experts to voice their views and express them and have them considered, in terms of the people left behind at the need to rebuild. i think the damage is brought. i've seen it in all of the 8 -- i think the damage is broad. i've seen it in all the agencies i have been at. the job of rebuilding is underway but it takes time. i'm not sure the extent to which the current circumstance can be tied to anything specific, but i think there was a legacy of serious damage. lisa: is a former u.s. treasury secretary, what should the u.s. do with respect to the assets of the taliban and afghanistan at a time there is a peace offering, but history has a different story to tell? jacob: the burden of proof is on

the taliban going forward. we have too much experience from the past to take their word anything will be different. i certainly hope there will be a difference, but the question of whether or not to treat the government as a legitimate government, as a partner to open financial flows and the like has to come after more evidence of what that government is going to do. they have clearly learned they need to talk differently than they did in the 1990's. we have to learn whether they will act differently. lisa: how concerned are you as we have this controversy surrounding the biden administration we are hitting a debt ceiling debate that could rival 2011 and we have an infrastructure plan that may get through, at least a $550 million one, but is called into question when you look at the $3.5 trillion reconciliation act.

how close are we to another debt ceiling debacle? jacob: i am not sure i would conflate the issues of afghanistan with the question of the debt limit. i think before the events of the last week there was considerable uncertainty to how the debt limit could be resolved. that remains the case. i think it is extremely dangerous for so many senators -- republican senators to sign on to a letter saying they will not support a debt limit. procedurally it is very challenging unless you get bipartisan support. the pathways are there but they are fewer. the reality is debt limit is the final, not the first position. it is to pay all bills, not new bills. when we saw in 2017 an enormous increase in debt through the tax cut, when we saw through the spending in the trump years,

enormous increases in the deficit, the bipartisan move to respond appropriately to covid, i did not hear people saying we will come back later and say we will not raise the debt limit. it is wrong. it is a self-inflicted wound and we end up with the crisis that could be avoided. i hope the pathway towards resolving it is relatively clear and quick. if i had to guess, there will be choppiness between now and when it is done that we know from experience positive great deal of anxiety. this is not a moment there needs to be more anxiety. tom: i do not know if you wondered to the philosophy department at harvard. joe much of that is the -- so much of that is the -- i think of america's aversion to debt. speak to conservatives now in their concern about the fact we

have too much debt. jacob: i have state consistent through a period when so many people have deviated from their traditional views on deficits and debt. i did not hear a lot of concerns from conservatives about deficits and debt when we were cutting taxes in a way that was irresponsible, at a time when the economy was very healthy. i think it was appropriate for both sides to say will not worry about the deficit or debt at the height of the covid crisis. you look at what is going on right now. congress is working with the administration to pay for the biggest investment in my professional career in terms of domestic priority. critical investments, important investments. i think the debate in congress will come down to how much willingness is there to pay for these investments and that will dictate the size of the package. the hopeful sign is there is

considerable consensus on a very large pull of assets to pay for significant investment. it is fundamentally different than saying devil may care, let the next generation pay for it. in terms of the cost of servicing the debt, with near zero interest rates we are seeing, for the next five to 10 years the sustainment of payments is not the issue. i think the challenge is getting back to a more traditional view that over time, when the economy is doing well, you need to pay at work at reducing the deficit, and when the economy is in trouble you knew -- you use your fiscal cannon to deal with that challenge. we are at an ambiguous moment. out of the covid crisis, everything is uncertain. you are talking about the dark room. we do not know where the virus is going. we do not know if employment will be sustained. i think we are doing the right

thing making sure our economy comes back strong and sustainably out of the worst crisis i have ever seen. jonathan: jack lew, we appreciate your time. former u.s. treasury secretary. it is a dark room still trying to look ahead to the end of this year. never want what next year looks like. it went from april 2020 to may 2020 and now we are talking about 2022. tom: it is about schools. i will go to the desperation to get a constructive vaccine for those under 12 years old. that is a key item right now. jonathan: lisa has made that point repeatedly. equity features down five. coming up on the open, we will catch up with alicia levine of bny mellon. from new york city, this is bloomberg.

laura: and afghanistan, taliban fighters have encircled the devil airport -- encircled the kabul airport. the airport itself is under u.s. military control and the biden administration says the taliban has promised safe passage to americans who need to get to the airport so they can leave. meanwhile the u.s. is trying to keep the taliban from accessing assets belonging to afghanistan central bank. the biden administration has frozen almost $9.5 billion in afghan accounts. the taliban remains on the treasury department section list. in haiti tropical storm grace forced a temporary halt to hurricane rescue efforts. authorities warned some areas could get 15 inches of rain. the death toll has now been raised to more than 1900. almost 10,000 people were injured. for american investors, chinese

stocks are becoming assets not out. influential investors have trimmed china exposure and cathie woods'flagship etf no longer holds any shares. one of the world's largest hedge funds -- says china adrs are on investable. pressures having testified. the world's largest sovereign wealth fund made $110 billion in the first half of the year. no norwegian fund generated a nine point fund percent return. it's investment help -- a 9.5% return. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> my guess is given enough time, we may well end up in a situation where we have yearly

vaccinations just like the flu. tom: the gentleman from moderna, important comments in a well-timed interview. things have changed in the last week. we are interested again in immigration, possibly migration from afghanistan to various western countries. certainly a topic at hand. before this event david rubenstein spoke to someone who is with this. it is the david rubenstein show. mr. rubenstein joins us right now. i think of the armenian exercise -- how others has stated we were immigrants, we came here, we were successful, this can work. tell us about his path to the united states and great wealth. david: for those who. no -- for

those who do not know, he is the chairman of moderna. he is armenian refugee from lebanon, he grew up in lebanon. he went to canada and got a degree and came to m.i.t. and got a phd and started companies. he has started 76 companies and many of them have been fabulous lee's successful. he is now running -- fabulously successful. moderna is by far the most successful. tom: how can guys like you compete with guys like him for intellectual excellence. doesn't he have the upper hand over private equity and other sources of venture capital? david: there is no doubt people who are immigrants often tend to be very hard-working and very smart and they are the leaders of many of the entrepreneurial ventures.

on the other hand private equity people are investing with him and alongside him. i would not say it is competitive but there is no doubt he is a unique force. he is now running this venture operation which creates companies like moderna. moderna has increased in value about 100 times from the initial money he put in. it is up 100 times since then. he is giving away a lot of his money to various causes, including immigration related things and helping armenia. he is very interested in biotech. lisa: he is also at the center of the health catastrophe that has unfolded and will likely be a mainstay going forward as we rely on vaccinations and potentially booster shots to ward off variations of the virus. there is a question of booster shots. what does he foresee in terms of demand going forward, in terms of the need for ongoing shots? david: just as we are getting

used to having a flu shot every year, i think his view is we will getting a moderna or pfizer or equivalent shot for this type of virus every year. right now the fda is probably going to say we need to have a booster shot. the biden administration is promoting the idea of a booster shot for those people that have had the original moderna or pfizer shots. once we have the booster shot, you will be seeing this every year. this company will be benefiting from it. lisa: you are on the front line of this issue both as an interviewer for the shows as well as ceo and chair of carlyle group. i'm wondering whether you mandated vaccines, how closely you're watching how this is unfolding on a national level from a corporate and federal level to determine how to create policy going forward for your employees. david: i think carlyle group has

decided its employees should be vaccinated. there are some medical and religious the reasons why some might not be able to be, but the thinking in our office, and this is true of all major corporations i've been talking to, they think it is much better for their employees to be vaccinated. that will be carlyle group's policy. tom: as someone who attends world events, your thoughts on afghanistan and particularly the elite of afghanistan, the people that have provided innovation for 10 years, maybe 15 years. what is next? david: is a sad situation for afghanistan and a sad situation for our country. the most important thing now is dealing with humanitarian issues of getting people out. hopefully our u.s. government will be able to work out what it is that can be done, but it will not be pleasant, easy, it will not be quick. some mistakes were made, but

before we figure out who made what mistakes and how we can correct them in the future, we have to do with the present problem of getting people out who are loyal to the united states and the allies in trying to prevent the taliban from taking over. tom: david rubenstein with the carlyle group and host of the david rubenstein show, peer-to-peer conversations. much to talk about this morning. rick rieder will join us as we move forward this morning. lisa, i look at a tape that is waiting for news. lisa: this bank of america note, we keep coming back because it highlights the lack of conviction in markets. it does seem like we are on the precipice of something, whether it is higher inflation or lower growth and whether these things can happen in tandem. we are also waiting for a federal reserve. why would anyone have conviction to make a certain trade? tom: we are waiting for the data. i look at the global litmus

paper, the u.s. dollar, 93 on dxy. i am watching euro-dollar, 1.1715. i 1.6 handle would be a big deal. lisa: can we talk about the shift in psychology over the past year when it comes to the dollar? heading into 2021 it was believed the dollar would weaken as we get this global recovery. that has been turned on its head. i wonder if you could even say the consensus is for the dollar to stay where it is or strengthen, as it will be the first to tighten among developed markets. tom: that will be part of the discussion. lisa abramowicz and i are thrilled to discuss we will attend jackson hole. michael mckee announced the meeting will be most important, particular with a changed international landscape. the degree of freedom international banks have a little bit constrained. stay with us, particular

coverage from washington with "balance of power." dow futures at -95. the vix 18.16. it is a drawdown. good morning. >> i have an exclusive update from tennis channel. american stars shine on day two in cincinnati. the biggest stops on tour ahead of the u.s. open. coco gauff clinched her first win in cincinnati with a comfortable victory. the 17-year-old closing it out after a 14 -- after a four hour rain delay to set up a second-round meeting with the rating u.s. open champion naomi osaka. jessica avenged her semifinal defeat the eventual champion in montreal. the new york native jumped out

to an early lead and did not look back. her powerful full-court game taking full advantage of a poor performance from the italian. don't forget tennis channels exclusive live daily coverage of the western and southern open pits the air at 11:00 eastern. ♪

jonathan: equity futures a little bit softer this morning. with 30 minutes until the opening ballot, the counter --

until the opening bell, the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york we begin with the big issue. the outlook on a knife edge. >> gradual normalization. >> starting to see growth is beginning to slow down. >> some of the earlier fiscal stimulus is starting to wade. >> getting downtrends from the data like retail sales. >> exiting this period where we had strong economic data. we may be moving to a period where it surprises to the downside. >> the reopening boom is over. >> it may be delayed somewhat.