trouble, you use your fiscal cannon to deal with that challenge. we are now in an ambiguous moment. >> the markets are kind of hinting that the fed may be making a mistake by moving to early on the paper. >> did biggest thing i think is the fear of restrictions from the delta variant. >> when it comes to tax dollars, it takes a bigger hit to that mental outlook. >> there's a ton of cash on consumers' and corporate balance sheets. that eventually needs to go somewhere. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: when in doubt, blame the fed. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 32 on the s&p, -0.75%. if in doubt, blame the fed.

this morning, that's what many are doing. tom: the fed is always in the crosshairs, but it is much more than that. goldman sachs yesterday, they mentioned to variant. this is not about economics. it is about the fourth story of this pandemic. jonathan: couldn't agree more. the title of goldman's downgrade was not related to fed tapering, not related to an increase of tightening. it was on the impact of covid in q3 and q4. tom: we've got a lot of other people coming up as well on that. and lately -- ben laidler, hugely bullish. what i wonder is at jackson hole, should they rip up the script, and on the lawn with those lovely white tents for the saturday lunch, should the head of the cdc speak to the economists? jonathan: i imagine they are going to be talking about that themselves because this is as

much about the pandemic as it is about anything else, and it is as much about china as it is about the federal reserve. lisa: which raises the question about that fourth-quarter projection from goldman sachs, basically this idea that we can get production back online by the fourth quarter. can we? how do we have that certainty? can we hire enough workers to do that? what is the situation over in china? what is the tolerance level for each case of covid thickets diagnosed? jonathan: the ultimate bias is that it is recovery delayed and not recovery derailed. that has been the bias since last summer. we've been talking about q3 2020, q4 2020. now it is 2021, the back half of 2021, and increasingly talking about 2022. tom: and with the shock of afghanistan, it is august, where we recalibrate not so much for q3, q4.

i'm going to go back to the goldman note because everyone is doing this, including jan hatzius, they are trying to guesstimate their 2022, and boy, is it a mixed set of opinions. jonathan: we are down on the s&p. let's get you up to speed. yields in three basis points to 1.2250%. risk aversion bleeding through the commodity market. $62.97 on wti, down for a sixth straight session. euro-dollar with a $1.16 handle, negative they are a little more than 0.1%. lisa: that dollar strength really bleeding through all of the g10 complex. i was struck by what you said, this idea of recovery delayed, not derailed. when do we change that idea? when does the delay have ramifications that last much longer? it: 30 am, we get u.s. initial jobless claims and continuing claims. do we start to see an

increase in firings as a result of some of the supply chain disruptions? i wonder about that in light of exactly what you said, services account for a significant version of this economy. they still have not fully recovered. 9:00 a.m., we get u.s. consumer comfort for the month of august. how much are we seeing it affected by the delta variant? at 10:00 a.m. come we get the u.s. july leading index -- i 10:00 a.m. -- at 10:00 a.m., we get the u.s. july leading index. how long can we recover before we have a longer-lasting scar? i have not seen any projection that gives any sort of clarity to that. jonathan: stuart kaiser joins us now, ubs securities head of equity derivative's research. is it recovery delayed and not derailed? stuart: we better hope so. that is certainly how the market is priced. we are still near all-time

highs. our consumer survey work we do on a weekly basis i think once to that, in the sense that those consumers still think the employment outlook is very strong, but their views on returning to work have declined substantially. so i think the consumer is still seeing a strong economy. they are just a little bit less excited to participate in it because of the delta variant and other things. i guess the question there is one of persistence. how long will it take them to be convinced to get fully engaged? to your point, that is the ultimate arbiter of how the economy looks two to four quarters from now. tom: what do the derivatives say about catharsis? we've had a drawdown of 2%, nowhere near a correction. i am going to suggest there is no true catharsis out there. what does the math say about it right now? stuart: i think the equity derivative set up has been pretty similar for the last few months, which is three to six month out, there's a lot of risk

in volatility to protect your portfolio. if you look at the shorter dated stuff, similar story. if you look at how low realized volatility has been for the last couple of weeks, the love the vix -- the level of the vix, princeton's -- the level of the vix, for instance, we are not at the run for the hills mentality quite yet. lisa: when it comes to bullish sentiment, how overly confident our people? i hear that people are hesitant to buy protection, but do you get the sense there's an increasingly bullish feeling that no matter what happens, people are going to come in and buy the dip? stuart: i think we are still in the by the dip mentality at the index level. in terms of the reopening trade come of the casinos and the airlines, things of that nature, the s&p sends you on message,

and the below the surface stuff can send you a slightly different message. i think by and large, people still believe in the reopening, and they are of the view that the delta variant is going to be a this too shall pass situation. but my view is we are probably, most clients we speak to are still generally in a buy the dip mentality and are looking for opportunities to reengage with those reopening traits when it gets to a level they are comfortable with -- reopening trades when it gets to a level they are comfortable with. jonathan: some headlines from the president of the united states, saying no one anticipated afghan troops would give up. there was no consensus in the intelligence. advisors were divided on the withdrawal from afghanistan. no one warned him to keep 20. . 500 troops in afghanistan would have withdrawn troops -- keep 2500 troops in afghanistan. would have withdrawn the troops even without the last president's deal.

all of that coming from abc. tom: the latest to bring you up to those headlines, as the former nato commander will speak to "surveillance" today. there will be all sorts of opinions and second-guessing on this. what does the president do forward for afghanistan, for the migrants out of afghanistan, and to support the world in this debacle? jonathan: we will get the forward look from washington in about 10 minutes. tom, myself, lisa, we have been having this conversation through much of this week. does the international problem overwhelmed the domestic policy goals? infrastructure is a conversation we hardly had this week. do you have a position on that at the moment? stuart: i think the international growth risks are pretty evident in the merck it over the past couple of months -- in the market over the past couple of months. delta i think is more of a risk to growth at this point, and

that is for central banks and governments globally to behave a little more devilishly. that is one of the contributors to getting u.s. real and number yields down to the levels they are. is that enough to overwhelm the stimulus for u.s. markets. i would say not yet, but eventually that balance will shift if this is much more persistent. but i think we are definitely seeing global growth risk spillover. i think you are seeing it below the surface in equities as well. jonathan: thank you. get to catch up. stuart kaiser of ubs. let's run through those headlines. the president of the united states in an interview with abc, saying there was no consensus in the intelligence. the intel community did not predict a quick taliban take over. there would have been no good time to leave. he said no one warned him to keep 2500 troops in afghanistan, responding to some of those questions about what exactly intelligence told this white house. lisa: tom mentioned the admiral who wrote a column in bloomberg

opinion, talking about how the afghanistan he army was not equipped -- the afghanistani army was not equipped to fight the taliban. even though the u.s. set it up with all of these types of u.s. style army paraphernalia, that was not what they needed. they needed more guerrilla warfare, more local organization. and as a result, anyone could have seen this coming, which was interesting given his role in the administration in the old days. jonathan: many of the questions that have been asked over the last week, and we have all been asking about how this white house, how this country left afghanistan. . this is the president's position on that. he does not think the withdrawal could have been handled better. that is the position of the president of the united states on the how question. tom: ok, i will go with that, jon. there's going to be a lot of navelgazing -- navelgazing is an american phrase. jonathan: unaware. tom: it met -- i'm aware. tom: it may be lost in translation.

but what i find so important here is they invented a liberal democracy in afghanistan, and now i guess they are going to export that liberal democracy out of afghanistan. that is what we've got to focus on right now. jonathan: the president going on to say the united states will do all in its power to get americans and allies out. that is very much the forward look now, isn't it? tom: based on what i have seen in the zeitgeist, the french are leading the way with the french embassy still active in kabul. that is from secondary sources. jonathan: we will get the view down in washington on this program. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the president of the united states to abc, "the united states will do all in its power to get americans and allies out." this is bloomberg. ♪

laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. president biden will keep u.s. troops in afghanistan until all americans are able to leave the country, even if it takes longer than his august 31 deadline to withdraw. the president also told abc news that u.s. intelligence didn't foresee such a rapid advance by the taliban and collapse of the afghan military. a new study says coronavirus vaccines are less effective against the delta variant of the disease. that could lead to a push for booster shots for fully vaccinated people. the british study said that pfizer and biontech's vaccine lost effectiveness in the first 90 days after full vaccination. in china, regulators have issued the harshest warning to the struggling ever grand conglomerate. evergrand has more than $300 billion in liabilities. it has broad implications for the financial system and millions of homeowners.

goldman sachs is expanding its presence in europe. the firm has agreed to buy the asset management arm of a dutch insurer for about $1.9 billion. about 3/4 of the business is $350 billion of assets. macy's is out with a sales forecast for the fiscal year that beat estimates. the department store chain also reinstated its quarterly dividend and authorized a $500 million stock buyback. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: we've got a little bit of a selloff. from new york city this morning,

good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the move lower on the s&p , another day of it. we are -0.8% on the s&p. into the bond market, firmer, yields lower. we are down three basis points, 1.2 sevenths -- 1.2267% on tens. it is not just a federal reserve. it is china, it is delta. i think you use the word yesterday, it is the crosscurrents. that is a decent description of where we are at. tom: 93.5 on the dxy. that is a big move. everybody's got emotion. you know what? watch the vix, just reprinting 24.03. the high, 24.75.

everyone has an opinion of where the vix sweats. 30 is my number. jonathan: i think that chairman powell speech next week gets a little more interesting. i imagine if he could reschedule jackson hole, it might be on september 4, after the jobs report september 3. tom: maybe, but i am guessing he's saying everybody calm down, and let's start rewriting the jackson hole speech. jonathan: you think a rewrite? i think people have jokingly said they have about 10 of those over the last month. tom: i think they will go into major triage to say the right thing out in wyoming. jonathan: lisa disagrees. lisa: i think they are going to avoid saying anything. i think they will talk about income inequality and things that will not necessarily play into their strategy because they just don't know right now. jonathan: you think a nothing speech next week? lisa: i think that is a goal. tom: then where we going? lisa: it will be beautiful. jonathan: that was your pitch to management. [laughter] lisa: i think it could be interesting.

but i will say, my point is they don't want to say anything they might have to reverse and just a couple of weeks when we get more data in such quickly moving situations. jonathan: i love that pitch. tom: as jack fitzpatrick no, at jackson hole the big decision is the hangover breakfast or the cowboy breakfast. right now out of washington on a very serious thursday, just simply, what is the president upon to do list today? what is he saying we've got to get done today? jack: today and in the very near future, they are still in the process of adding that 6000 increase of troops back into afghanistan to try to essentially work with the taliban to continue getting americans and other afghans at risk out of the country.

it is notable that yesterday, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff said that this isn't something the u.s. can do just essentially gaining ground in afghanistan. they are reliant on the taliban's cooperation here. tom: how do we get x number of americans to kabul to get out? jack: with the cooperation of the taliban, and assuring them apparently that even though the u.s. is saying troops could stay past august 31, we are more or less still abiding by the agreements that were set in place a while back, and in the process of leaving and taking very limited steps towards getting americans and a limited number of other people out. it is difficult. it is something the u.s.

military can't do single-handedly. it is more, according to mark milley, a political operation, a political negotiation with the taliban. it is sort of a shaky situation because of that. it is not something the u.s. military can go in force on their own terms at this point. lisa: i want to clarify a point. when president biden says it could not have been handled better, i wonder about the paperwork for some of the workers on the ground in afghanistan, working for months on trying to get people here, and they said some of the paperwork that backed up. can you give us a sense of what happened and how they are going to expedite that in order to bring more people over in a more expedited fashion? jack: that comment almost seems a bit self-contradictory when you look at the fact that the president also said they didn't really have intelligence indicating this is how everything would go in

afghanistan, and that even kabul would be taken over by the taliban so quickly. the process on some of the special immigrant visas was started ahead of time. there was some preparation. they even worked with congress to get about $1 billion to expedite that ahead of time. but the conversation around that was not in the context of everything is going to fall apart immediately in the month of august. so there is clearly work still left to be done after the point at which the u.s. was supposed to be really in the process of drawing out of afghanistan. it does not appear to really be true that this is the inevitable way that it was going to go. there were some steps taken ahead of time on visas to get people out, but the context of those conversations and what they did ahead of time was not on the same timeline. lisa: this is important,

especially as we talk about the broader labor economy, the fact there seem to be a shortage of workers in a number of areas, spotlighting the immigration issue. are you seeing the biden administration take a more open approach to immigration, despite the covid pandemic that is ongoing, in order to provide humanitarian need to places like afghanistan? jack: politically, i think you can see why the biden administration may have been hesitant to outwardly call for some major push in migrants coming here because of the debate over immigration and the natural pushback they get from republicans, but really, the kind of numbers we are talking about from afghanistan at this point are in the thousands, if not very high thousands. we still don't have specifics on how may refugees. but in the context of the broader immigration debate, in

comparison to work visas for people coming across the u.s.-mexico border, it is not a huge number. this is more a political debate, or just a debate about human rights rather than something that would make a really significant dent in immigration in the terms that we usually have it. jonathan: appreciate the hard work you are putting in at the moment. thanks for getting up early and joining us. jack fitzpatrick of bloomberg government. anne-marie is thinking, why didn't you think me? thank you for coming on with us as well. you know what she gets like, tom. you get those emails down in d.c. down on the s&p 0.8%. user in on the tenure to 1.22 93%. copper, crude, take your pick in the commodity market. tom: lme down three standard deviations. i must admit, that gets my attention. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, a

bit of risk aversion this morning. we are down 36 on the s&p, -0.8%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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♪ jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here's the thursday morning price action. we are -0.8% on the s&p. down 0.6 on the nasdaq -- down 0.6% on the nasdaq. equities lower as we start to fear the fed taper. here's the nuance. get to what is happening in europe. the ftse 100 getting absolutely hammered right now, -2%. the cac 40 in paris, france, -2.5%. anglo, the miner, down. luxury retailers down. there's a massive china factor in this story.

and then the additional story today in the mix overnight, a real conversation about wealth redistribution in china. property taxes, those kind of things. the rich giving back. what does that mean for the luxury players? lvmh in paris getting hammered. what does it mean for the growth fears? anglo getting hammered. it is more than just the federal reserve and a very simplistic headline. tom: looking at the monetary dynamics and how they fold into their net, we asked their debt, we have seen headlines -- into their debt, we have seen headlines on the bloomberg on that. if i had to pick one time, it would be sunday evening headline is when they make those announcements. jonathan: look at twos, tens and 30's. your 30 year comes in four basis points to 1.8581%. that curve is flatter.

2% is well north of where we are right now. my question this morning, there's a lot more than just tapering going on, but if it is tapering you worry about, together with china growth fears as well, can those two things happen? can you have the former if you have the latter? do you really think the federal reserve starts to remove accommodation in the market where there's increasing fears about growth? tom: they are going to look at the jobs report on september 3, and particularly the inflation dynamic, which is wage growth or lack thereof. jonathan: i'm with you because i think september 3, that jobs report is far more important than anything that is about to happen over the next get jackson hole. jonathan: absolutely -- tom: absolutely. jonathan: but what are our view was worth? -- our views worth? here's romaine bostick. romaine: you did a good job of summing up the macro picture driving a lot of the individual movers this morning. jp morgan and the rest of the bank stocks are lower in the

premarket. the regional banks are even doing worse. the kbw regional bank index down now for five straight days, as of yesterday's close. if it is done for a six straight a come of that will be the longest daily losing streak going back to february. a lot of concerns not only about the yield curve, but about the delta variant and how that feeds into the broader economic picture. everyone still has their eye on what is going on in china. alibaba shares down again in the u.s., down to the lowest levels going back to october of 2019. we should point out that there hong kong shares, which just listed in november of 2019, today hit a record low. keep an eye on robinhood. this was a big story after the bell last night. first earnings is a publicly traded company, the question now is if all of your money is being made up of something that is effectively a joke, does the company itself become a joke? you're talking about a company that doubled revenue in the most recent quarter, more than 40% from the selling of

cryptocurrencies, more specifically, 50% came of that from dogecoin. it did not actually drive any profitability. that is the big concern, that once that type of hype fades down, was left for the company? it is still a behemoth of a company, 25 million active users on that platform, and a company that still sees profitability in the future, but at least in the short-term term, some of those tailwinds from the meme stocks does appear to be fading. there's still a chip crisis out there. leota warning about that today, suspending production -- toyota warning about that today, suspending production. toyota was probably managing better than any other automaker, so the fact that it is now warning on this issue raises a lot of questions about what gm and ford are facing. nvidia and macy's, a beat and raise quarter. tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much.

on this stew, we go macro george goncalves, mufg securities head of u.s. microstrategy. i want you to fold u.s. macro strategy -- u.s. macro strategy. i want you to fold the movable feast of gdp guesses into that. george: you don't, and that is really the bottom line. we have been really divorced from these fundamental for going on 5, 10 years. this is something that most rate forecasters have been struggling with, trying to go back to what does growth and inflation really mean for what should be captured within an interest-rate forecast. that is the way things go. he bond market trades more and more on price and momentum. it trades like a commodity in many regards, where you'll to

become a second thought until yields become too low, and then people say, wait, why am i buying? jonathan: lisa brought up a quote from bank of america that i think is really important. of america suggested we were at the threshold of scenarios that could see yields go north of 2% by the end of the year, south of 1% by the end of the year. do you think things are finally balanced right now? george: maybe not that finally balanced, but i do think there's a break, and up soon, and that is definitely true. on the one hand, the fed is not going to get boxed in. if the delta virus were to get worse or we had any kind of slowdowns beyond what was being projected, the concerns of this peak growth that gets further entrenched, that factors into a slower end of the year into early part of q1. that is always pushed back, and that is what they will always do because they are never going to

pull forward tightening. they are always going to push back. even if we were to handle the delta virus better in the u.s. than the rest of the world, plus this china growth dynamic starts to really weigh on commodities, the fed is going to take that into account as well. lisa: when you say the fed won't get asked in, in other words, they don't want to necessarily commit to tapering, there is an issue of harmful effects of their carrying on with the programs the way they are for a longer period of time, especially as we see inflationary pressures, yes, idiosyncratic with respect to supply chain issues, but if we do get a rebound like goldman sachs thinks, it could be that much bigger if the fed keeps pumping money into the financial system. how much are you concerned that the fed is shrugging off some of these deleterious effects of their continuing of monetary stimulus at this point? george: as we all know, what we think the fed should do is what

they will do, so we are always trying to forecast that. maybe they have overstayed their qe1 for quarters now ashford qe -- there qe welcome for quarters now. lisa: then what is the negative consequent of that that you are willing to bet on, or that you are gaming out in terms of your market call? george: right now, the concern we are seeing manifest itself in the rivers qe program, even in the minutes yesterday there was reference that as we head into a debt ceiling, it is all this liquidity with the fed not tapering yet, most likely i don't think they will do it in september in terms of a tapering announcement. so there's going to be a lot of liquidity still in the system into this very acute period of excess liquidity, so that causes an issue potentially for the money markets. there's definitely signs that they need to be tapering and they need to get out of this qe

business. jonathan: you've spent a long time with japanese banks. the reason i bring that up his got experience looking at the japanese bond market. i want to understand from your perspective, and just because i am asking this doesn't mean it is going to happen, do you think we could replicate what we have seen take place in japan over the last 20 years? ultimately, europe took over in the last 10. do you think that could happen in america? george: europe is still struggling with believing there's education going on in their bond markets. i think it looks a lot more like japan than the u.s. will. the real thing is trying to understand the next three to five years, if the u.s. can get back into a growth trend that would prevent us from falling into a japan-like scenario. and i would say we are does not there yet. jonathan: i agree. mef g securities -- mufg

securities head of u.s. macro. we are not there yet. lisa: you talked about the idea this week that the u.s. treasury department is going to sell less debt going forward, so if the said -- if the fed starts to taper, they would only be keeping stimulus the same pace. if they keep at the same pace it is now, it is increasing stimulus by some measures. they are increasing their footprint in the market. i am just struggling with this idea of other concert this socially if they continue with this. in other words, people who are wealthy continue to increase their wealth, and people who are not in the market are not dissipating. jonathan: how many people -- not participating. jonathan: how many people come on and talk about that? if you participate, assets have gone up markedly. if you are not, your suffering. for the federal reserve to do some thing about it, they have to realize they are a part of it. do you think they do? tom: i think they do.

i think the wealth inequality issue is from a tradition of lifting up all boats behind clearly the haves doing better versus a whole other discussion wrapped around coefficients and the rest of it. it is going to be addressed at jackson hole. it is addressed in the market every day. you know what? the basic theory is what people are going to worry about. my answer is what is the theory right now? i'm not sure. jonathan: with dan alpert at the top of the hour, westwood capital founding managing partner. we are -0.7% on the s&p 500. yields come in three basis points on tens to 1.2283%. a defensive posture this morning. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm la right -- i'm laura wright. the imf says the new government in afghanistan is cutting off --

is cut off from using reserve assets. that deprives the taliban of key resources. the imf says afghanistan can't use the money because the new regime lacks international recognition. in haiti, the death toll from that earthquake last weekend has risen to almost 2200. meanwhile, tensions have been rising over the slow pace of aid reaching victims. they have complained of inadequate food and material needed to temporarily repair damaged homes. there are more than 10,000 firefighters battling wildfires in california, but that isn't enough, and the state is having a hard time fighting more wildfires as they rage across the western u.s. and canada. 12 major wildfires are now burning in california. the rout in chinese tech giants got worse today after the industry was hit with a new bout of proposed regulations. alibaba l2 a record low in hong kong. tencent was also lower.

china is studying proposals to further ensure the rise -- of online companies. the government may also increase regulation of the livestream industry. chip shortages will force the world's number one automaker to cut production at month by 40%. toyota intended to build 900,000 vehicles in september. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> is going to be very difficult for the fed because they want to project certainty, or they want to project calm that we've got

this figured out, where inflation is going to go, it's going to be transitory. the fact is they don't know, we don't know. inflation is a very difficult thing to get your head around and a very difficult thing to understand. jonathan: always brilliant to catch up with jim bianco of bianco research. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the state of play this morning. waking up to a softer market, -0.7% on the s&p, with yields lower three basis points to 1.2283%. crude down for a sixth straight session to $63.31. the many why -- there are many whys. the realization that the fed is tapering, the chinese and capitalistic regulations, the red sox collapse -- chinese anti-capitalistic regulations,

the red sox collapse. put it all together. tom: it is a drawdown. david wilson showed me that years ago, the spx drawdown -1.86%. the always handsome david wilson, what have you got? dave: it is kind of a corollary to what i talked about a couple of days ago. i looked at the russell 1000 growth and value index and basically pointed out this year's performance. then you do the same analysis with the russell 2000 index, smaller companies, and you see there's no convergence at all. you are talking about quite the cap between the two, so you could argue it is sort of a great vibe that we are seeing between these indexes. there are a few reasons for it. one is that if you look at the russell 2000 growth index, you see that health care is the biggest component. it also happens to be the only component of the russell 2000 growth index that is down for

the year. turn to technology, you see it is about half of the russell 1000 growth index, and it is actually beating that benchmark this year. on the other hand, the russell 2000 is trailing. tom: in your reading of the zeitgeist right now, what is the distinction, the interesting thing you see in the growth versus value debate? what makes you lean forward? dave: it really comes down to, when you look at the russell 2000, you've got to ask yourself, is the gain we are seeing in growth this year really just a matter of those big tech companies, the ones we always talk about? the apples, the microsofts, the amazon the -- the amazons of the world. value, you can argue there is sort of a broader move going on. but to see that kind of come around, it does get your attention. tom: lisa, save us. i have to remeasure the

drawdown. [laughter] lisa: i will say that what you are talking about, dave, is really highlighted in this from mizuho this morning. "the average stock is off by 9.4%." basically, when you take a look under the surface, it is much more pain and broader based, and i am wondering what the conclusion is that you are hearing from people about what that means going forward. dave: there is some concern about whether it is finally time to have a pullback here. bear in mind, you have to go back to october to see the last time the s&p 500 had a 5% drawdown from a high. there's been this persistence, 49 records for the index this year, and that is the concern, because you have kind of seen smaller companies, riskier companies tail off to some extent, arguably going back to

february. that is why there's this concern about how sustainable the gains are that we are seeing here. lisa: but we have seen a drawdown in specific stocks, and i think that is the point, the idea that we have not gotten a drawdown that is significant in the index level, but that is because of these big tech names. we are seeing it under the surface. is that mean we may not see the broad-based drawdown, however people view this already as that mind are starting to go in and buy it it -- buy in and certain stocks? dave: people are seeing signs of weakness, pointing to a variety of indicators that suggest what we are seeing in the s&p 500 is the whole story, and yet you can argue that to some extent, there has been the buying of the dips on a broad level, even though you really haven't seen much of anything come out of the s&p 500 on that score.

tom: i am punching up here. you can do this on the bloomberg. you can punch up like 1998. you want to talk about a drawdown? the drawdown right now of 1.86% is back to august 3. distant, far back. dave: it is not much, no question. but we haven't seen much for 10 months running, so you talk 1998, of course, you had the collapse of long-term capital management, the russian debt default. you had some issues that the market had to get through back then. there are issues today, but they are not delivering the kind of severity that you saw in the 1990's. tom: david wilson, thank you so much. the drawdown from july to september, make it late august 1998, was 9.63%. jonathan: i feel like the last

five minutes was you just trolling me. when i say drawdown, i am not talking about a big move. just talking about direction. just coming in a little bit. does that help? we are down a little bit this morning, 0.9%. tom: it is. i don't mean to make light of it. there is so much going on now. and again, i would bring it over almost two shock, china earlier. jonathan: china is the issue now, particularly for europe. we are seeing europe get hit pretty hard. lisa: there have been drawdowns. that was my point, that actually, you are not wrong saying that when you look at specific sectors. i am looking at energy stocks, down nearly 13% since the end of june. you are seeing specific sectors totally get hammered, and this is because of what we are seeing in china. it is being buoyed by the revenue drivers. jonathan: this is from andrew brenner of net alliance.

what is going on right now is more than one thing. "plunging global sentiment for the delta variant, fears of efficacy from vaccines, goldman sachs cutting third quarter gdp estimates, realization the fed is tapering, and more chinese anticapitalist regulations." we are talking about wealth redistribution in china as well. lisa: this honestly is affecting and really throwing a crimp in the process for a lot of specific companies. if you are looking at the index level, it is being stabilized by these ballasts of cash flow. under the surface, there is still a lot of pain being priced in, which is fascinating given the sanguine nature of some of these price moves. jonathan: the equity market down 38 on the s&p, down 0.9%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your bond market looks defensive, doesn't it? yields lower by three basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar -0.1%.

crude a whole lot softer. we are negative again by 0.65%. on to be uti, $63.07. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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♪ >> this unprecedented amount of liquidity everywhere, a lot of it seems to be on the sideline. >> the biggest driver of some growth slowing is the fear of restrictions from the delta variant. >> the consumer is still seeing a strong economy. they are just a little less excited to participate in it. >> it is unlikely we turn to the growth -- we return to the growth levels we saw prior to the pandemic. >> rates peaked in april, and that gives me confidence that the market already anticipate at this slow down that's already anticipated this slow down --