>> the economy will continue to not boom but really be quiet expensive and strong. >> we are not going to have what we think of as a normal cycle but see a steady growth in the economy. >> consumer still see a strong economy but are less excited to participate in it. >> it is not so much about the inflation but what the fed does about it. >> for the last year, it has always been employment, employment, employment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: a blue friday and down day assessing the risks of a

prolonged pandemic. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on radio and television. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz for jonathan ferro, off. there is a shifted tone throughout, and increase as we delay the return to work you have an increase in the potential supply chain disruptions with toyota motor coming out and reducing its expectations for production, it seems like people are re-triggering their sense of inflation and growth. tom: they are being tested, but there was a shift in tone. to me, it is much more about august, it has always been tumultuous, and with the afghanistan overlay, at least to your point, it is about an absolute mystery of q4. the guest we have coming up has some optimism about that q4 economic growth. lisa: yesterday, we were talking about a delayed pandemic, not necessarily a deferred or

diminished one, this idea we can get that growth resurgence in the fourth quarter. however, you still have that port closure and china. i was looking at reports out of "the wall street journal," saying it is likely to continue to the end of the month. how much are we expecting to see those margin pressures increase for companies that for the most part have passed them along? tom: i have always been skeptical about the angst of margin pressures. there has been angst over margin pressures since time began. i believe it is the goal, i believe old testament. the basic idea is it is always there -- i believe it is biblical, i believe old testament. the basic idea is always there. lisa: and for the biblical reference, kailey leinz, we have seen runoff for some running -- and hence unemployment benefits, so much where we hear about the concerning companies from earnings releases. kailey: the company only has the ability to pass the cost on to

consumers, they are tolerant of that and may buy those products. as we see a waning confidence, we saw that with consumer confidence falling to the lowest level since 2011, consumers, particularly on the lower end of the spectrum are no longer tolerating higher prices for discretionary goods because we have to buy groceries and gas. that may make a difference when it comes to the margin. tom: kailey, you are too close to lisa. kailey: it is because we match. it is a mind meld. tom: my most friday. on radio and television, it is a blue friday. thank you, ira jersey and gabriela santos. let me do the data check on a friday. it is an important data check after the recovery markets yesterday. we go down -17, dow futures -43, the vix 23 handle improving 22.

.91 yield space, coming into 122.83, a lower yield that bears watching into the safe haven weekend. the 30-year bond down to 1.86%. dow stronger at 93.67, as well. we will have to see how that goes. right now, a briefing always nuanced, patrick armstrong joins us with plurimi wealth, their chief investment officer. really well-timed. have you changed your allocation and the nuances of your portfolio this week? patrick: not significantly, really. i have added to some positions i have confidence in, so basically a lot of the cyclical -- tom: there are only five or six people watching, which of those positions do you have confidence in? patrick: it is around half a

percent down today to be trading at four or five times earnings depending on your forecast and has since raised its guidance. china put some policies in place that are curbing steel demand and things like that. those are short-term blips. i think we have a reflationary backdrop in place. i think it is reflation for longer. both sides want it. it is always difficult to get there but i think they always will, especially in an economic weakness. that will be the catalyst push through the infrastructure. i think companies that are pricing and earnings clip may not exist. on the shipping side of things, were down recently, but added to that yesterday. people think shipping and logistical issues can charge whatever they want to right now for freight because anybody manufacturing something in china wants to get it to the west end

you have to ship it, and there are not enough ships to do it right now. there is a lot of pricing power. those kind of things a for longer than market pricing. lisa: there is good reflation and bad reflation. i would love if you could weigh in on the margin pressure, are we adequately pricing in the margin compression for companies that rely on passing along those costs to consumers that are going to feel the cramp of ending enhancement including benefits? patrick: i always think there is margin risk, as well, but if you look at it and aggregates, it is a technology that is a dominant part of the market cap, and the earnings and those companies don't really have significant margin pressure. facebook, google, restaurants and hotels reopening, travel, they can charge what they want because they have the best place to advertise. i want to look at industries that are creating margin pressures for other companies.

if you are building a wind turbine for green energy, you have a lot of steel costs. if you are shipping your goods, margin is a risk if you are a price taker, but if you are producing a scarce good or have the resource everyone needs, i think you can price those out, creating margin pressures in some areas. those of the companies you want to own. kailey: if you are pro-cyclical assets in that regard, where are you bringing in the defense? do you do it in technology? kevin: i own -- >> patrick: i own alphabet and facebook. they are cyclical stories because of the advertising on them, those are cyclical companies in the opening economy, getting massive revenue. i like those. the defense of parts i am not really attracted to. i like telephone companies and deflationary environments like in japan where you get a dividend deal around 3% against the deflationary backdrop. that is a significant real yield

as a dividend. i am taking risk right now, but i am putting it on cyclically. you either have to take massive valuation risks or cyclical risks. i prefer the cyclical risk right now. lisa: do you care about jackson hole next friday? patrick: a lot. i think it is naive not to, and i think it is going to be a catalyst because i think jay powell will be unnerved by the market reaction. he is one of the more dovish members, and he is rbc the chair -- it is obviously the chair, but i think he is going to want to say more progress is needed before the taper is done. if there is any weakness and a delta variant slowdown, tapering is not necessarily embedded. tom: this is really important, we just spoke to vincent reinhart, essentially a member of the fed, with 24 years of research experience there, you are a rude guy, you can see what you think. is there a powell-style at the fed? is this a speech where he

reasserts that the chairman is in charge? patrick: i suspect it will be. i think he wants to take control of the narrative in the minutes, and they have sort of taken that from him a little bit. i think he will want to reassert that narrative. as i said, i have a pro-cyclical bias. i think we are going to get that incremental progress. i think powell will want to reiterate that it is not based in 100% and progress is still needed. i think that will be his tone, and i think it will be supported. tom: patrick armstrong, thank you so much. plurimi chief investment officer. i do not expect that, lisa. real hope about what we see at jackson hole. lisa: justifying our trip out there to jackson hole, so thank you, patrick. patrick armstrong, you justified our two pronged flight out there. it will be interesting to see who shows up. normally, it is an international

audience and this year it will just be domestic. jay powell will not be going. vince reinhart said he will not be going. they decided to avoid this on. it will be interesting to see what will be decided and how the conversations took place. tom: i think so. i am doing the math you right now, folks, in the bloomberg terminal. you can do that on the graphing function. orioles down 17% from the peak -- boiled down 17% from the -- oil down 17% from the peak. lisa: who would have thought we would get that resurgence in the delta variant that would cause slowdowns, shutdowns, and disruptions without we had gotten past? i the psychological impact is significant. -- and the psychological impact is significant. we saw a surplus and stockpiling of gas. we did not get as much demand for gasoline. people are going to fewer places, tom, are you? tom: no, i think demand is down. i have sensed it. kailey, what do you see?

do you see people canceling travel? kailey: i do, tom. i have a wedding next weekend, and we already had some people saying it isn't the best time for me to be getting on with a big group of people, which i think is a concern. tom: kailey, that was ferro making it up. he is actually writing his meditation book. kailey: potentially, but i do think people have concerns about the variant, given how many breakthrough cases. even people activated are less confident. three senators tested positive after being fully vaccinated. tom: is the weekend still on to play your wedding? kailey: with no "e" at the end weekend? to be confirmed. tom: to be confirmed. we will see. kailey: we will miss miss kailey leinz next week at some point. lisa: at some point. kailey: potentially. lisa: [laughter] ♪

laura: with first word news, i am laura wright. in afghanistan, growing urgency to evacuate thousands who work for the u.s., western countries, and news organizations because of evidence that taliban is carrying out reprisals even after the leadership promised amnesty. the u.s. says it evacuated about 3000 people yesterday from kabul airport. in australia, cindy's two month -- sydney's two-month lockdown will be extended until the end of september. the delta variant outbreak has gotten worse in the country's biggest city. new zealand links sydney's outbreak to at least three cases. there lockdown has been extended until at least tuesday. it will be the biden administration's most high-profile trip to asia. vice president harris will look

to bolster military cooperation in china's backyard. she will visit vietnam and singapore, reassuring them of america's role as a trading partner. harris will be able to raise her international profile. more pay hikes for junior bankers on wall street. according to "the financial times," goldman sachs is extending their raise beyond investment banking. they will have some basis for sales, research and asset management offices, arising from 110 -- rising to $110,000. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> consumers still think the outlook is strong, but their views on returning to work have declined substantially.

so, i think the consumers still seeing a strong economy, they are just as excited to participate in it because of the delta variant and other things. i guess the question, is one of persistence, how long will it take them to be convinced to get back, fully engaged? tom: a smart interview. i think we did that yesterday with ubs and derivatives of equity markets. a lot for you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro, i am tom keene. teresa rafael was -- therese raphael wrote about brexit, and she extends it. i want to discuss part of your's consistent price for helping the u.s. managed china and

continuing american engagement with europe on managing russia, which is the more proximate and persistent threat to the interest of mary european -- many european governments, and the same goes for the failure in afghanistan. it devolves back to europe, putin, and russia, with access from moscow to all of europe. therese: i think lori stewart said it really well. it is easy for china and russia to simply say to their constituents, to the weaker power that they dominate in the region, look, you cannot rely on these people, you cannot rely on the u.s. anymore. the u.s. is no longer willing to intervene. recently, we also heard it from the latvian defense minister. i think the withdrawal there has

just such far-reaching reverberation because of the message it sends to that region, and this, in turn, requires some really hard thinking from the u.k. and its nato allies on what it is prepared to do to try to send a signal to russia and to smaller countries in the east that are under the nato umbrella , that there is a willingness to defend their interest and a means to protect against potentially resurgent terrorist threat. tom: no one has a clear answer, but what is the russian load of the soviet failure of 1978? therese: i think the russians have had a lot of time to digest that failure. they probably have looked on at the american/coalition intervention and have been surprised not at all that it

ended the way it has. that said, had biden made a stronger case for what was accomplished in the last 20 years, it stands in contrast to the russian intervention that ended in such defeat. we had 20 years in which afghan women worked and girls went to school, so this is a very different record. in terms of the propaganda we are going to hear from vladimir putin, it was a defeat as the one russia suffered. lisa: can you give us a sense of afghanistan as a strategic place of importance and wiped russia and china, according to some reports, might be interested in showing up connections with this nation? therese: afghanistan stands at a crossroad on so many levels. obviously, there is the drug and opium trade, a huge amount of money that that generates. there is the potential and

history of harboring terrorist groups. there is also the potential to radicalize neighboring countries. tajikistan and you pakistan, which, by the way, provide -- ubekistan, which, by the way, provide a huge number of foreign workers into russia. this is an area where putin will not be succumbed about with the u.s. withdrawal because people have to contend with the possibility that a taliban radicalization of forces in neighboring countries will impact russia. on so many levels, from trade, to drugs, to terrorism, to a spread of fundamentalist influences, afghanistan is going to be pivotal. i think there is an open question of whether a country is governable at all and whether the taliban 20 years on are capable of doing right. lisa: given the international interest in the strategic importance of afghanistan at

this point, what is the international community want to hear from president biden when he takes the stand today at 1:00 p.m., given he will be addressing critics mystically and internationally? -- domestically and internationally? therese: from the perspective of britain and america's nato allies, this is the time when they want to hear biden accept some responsibility for the way this withdrawal has been managed. they also want to hear a renewed and reiterated u.s. commitment to helping vulnerable afghans leave the country. they want to hear the u.s. will be very much involved, if there is any threat to american allies from terrorism and the drug trade, they really want to hear that biden was serious when he said america is back. right now from where i am sitting in london, there is the impression that really it was the trump era america first policy that has carried through

more than the rhetoric of the early biden days. kailey: are we looking at united states that could lose its status as a global hegemonic power? therese: i think the credibility is hugely damaged by this withdrawal. there is no question for me that this is an enormous moment in reshaping the balance of power. that has arguably happened for a long time now. when we saw the resurgence of china, the ability of a country that has not embraced democracy to be prosperous already sent a message to autocratic power that there was this other way. it is now up to america to say what it is willing to do to defend the record and ability of democracies to project influence. i think this is, you know, really an inflection point. and we say that a lot, but we are really seeing it in the way the western allies have

responded with dismay, anger, and a lot of confusion to a manner of u.s. withdrawal. tom: thank you for the conversations this week. therese raphael in london from bloomberg opinion. all of us, lisa, really sobering -- all of this, lease, really sobering. the can does not matter. we have to get to monday and it is a fluid kabul. lisa: i'm fluid reaction in terms of the international community and president biden. he will outline it at 1:00 p.m., the expectation, anyway, the effort u.s. has made to lift allies and members out of afghanistan. how much can he counter the criticism? tom: kailey, we are seeing the comments by the president, where he has to change the tone. kailey: it is a tone about the international community wants to hear and what americans domestically want to hear, tom,

because while everybody feels the situation in afghanistan, it may not be the number one priority when it comes to voters and amplifications for the midst -- and applications for the midterm elections. tom: this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance. good morning on a friday. looking at a number of themes. the markets weaker, little better than they were two hours ago. dow futures -145. a number of crosscurrents, a word i've used too much this week. lisa, what is your lead cross parental? lisa: i think the dollar. that has been the strongest since november. you look at the bloomberg spot index and think about coming into 2021, all of these bearish dollar calls that got totally upended. what does it me to have a strong dollar at a time of global resurgence? does it undermine that, -- does

it undermine that concept. tom: may have asked where is jonathan ferro? he is finishing up a manuscript. i think it is more text based. there are photos. kailey: i want to pick up on lisa's point on the dollar. tom: i am selling john's book and you're talking about the dollar? kailey: bringing it back to the markets. what we have seen in oil is remarkable. oil is on its worst week since april 2020. in part that probably is a stronger dollar story, but part of that is concerns about the growth story around china. what growth will look like locally with the delta variant and how does that concern come back with the dollar. tom: others talking about supply coming on at some point. it has been painful for the oil bulls. we do this every once in a while

. we get a research note, we are like we do not want to do this, but it is so smart we are like, dial 1-800 eric nelson and get him on the phone. he is a macro strategist on foreign-exchange. erik, congratulations on a note that stopped me in my tracks. you look for week chinese renminbi but yorkie at the bottom of your note, it is not a devaluation. parse that distinction between depreciation and devaluation. erik: when we talk about the d word, devaluation, everyone seems to talk about the august 2015 episode, a 60% move in the chinese were may be in two days. that is big for a currency that does not move. this was a clear effort from

chinese authorities to hold the currency steady and then let the thing go. you look at what we are experiencing now, it is more of a situation where china is holding the currency stronger than it should be. we are not expecting to suddenly let this currency fall 2% or 3% in a single day the same way it did in 2015. it would be a more gradual move but would still happen in a relatively short space of time. tom: if it is fixed, not, but maybe it is a managed currency. do they have the firepower, do they have the tools necessary to make for a gradual depreciation? erik: absolutely. we have seen a huge increase in the past few months, since covid began. inflows into china, particularly the fx reserves in chinese

central banks. they have increased meaningfully. there are dollars china control on to manage this depreciation, not devaluation, and make it a gradual move. lisa: we are talking about the chinese currency. the other side of the payer is the dollar and the incredible strength over the past few weeks. have we seen a shift in the consensus around the dollar? is the consensus the dollar will continue to strengthen? erik: i would say it is not the consensus. there is probably maybe a 75/25 chance the dollar will weaken over the next 12 months. at the beginning of the year that was probably 90/10, to your point earlier, the consensus is shifting, and so is positioning. we have seen a lot of the dollar shorts pull out of the market. net the market is still short the dollar. there needs to be more positioning and the pain trade

is still dollar higher, not dollar lower. lisa: what does that mean in terms of how much support there could be to the dollar going higher and at a time we have more concerns about global growth in the resurgence of the delta variant? erik: thinking about the technicals, especially if we see a chinese currency move lower, we could see a new high in the dollar index. to me you have something to counterbalance that, which is will the fed actually an act early taper and will the fed hike rates before markets are currently pricing that in? that is where we are skeptical. into q4, we see the fit continue to be patient on taper timing, we think dollar strength will start to fade. kailey: with the dollar strength we have now, and the equation

from china, what does the picture look like for broader emerging-market currencies? kailey: in -- erik: in the short-term it is a negative situation. if you look at high-frequency equity debt in emerging markets, it remains very much flat. the vaccine and growth situation remains tenuous. plus you have the delta variant. as you get into not so much the end of this year but the beginning and middle of next year, we could put the pandemic behind us and put vaccinations where they need to be, we are talking about a strong global growth backdrop. still very accommodative policy and investment in emerging markets in the last five years. to me the longer term backdrop for emerging markets is very positive. kailey: a lot of emerging markets are already tightening and doing what we were just talking about, the anticipation for the baker central banks.

how does that work into your thesis? erik: unfortunately for some of the central banks, what is driving the market is the delta variant, growth concerns, and the broader dollar trends. look at brazil. very hawkish central bank. the currency is not getting much. the mexican peso as well. not seeing strong peso gains because the dollar is well bid. it needs to be a situation where we get past the worst of the pandemic, policy remains accommodative, the dollar starts to fade before the emerging currency start recovery. kailey: -- tom: what is the level of breakout, or to look at a single pair on euro, where you say dollar breakout to new strength? erik: probably to me it is 9450 on dxy. tom: on euro?

erik: on euro probably below 1.16. 1.15 would be very defensive. tom: i agree with that. lisa, pick it up. lisa: i'm wondering if we can go brought. i'm wondering what the foreign-exchange implication is, supply chain disruption given how important trade is. the u.s. has been importing so much and exporting $70. what happens if that dynamic -- exporting so many dollars. what happens if that supply dynamic gets rejiggered? erik: so much global trade is invoiced in u.s. dollars. if you think about when the dollar starts to get strong, that tends to be negative for global growth and global trade in particular because trade in general is more expensive.

plus and thinking about the dollar lending that needs to take place in facilitating global trade, that becomes more expensive. the dollar higher is not just the pain trade for the market, it is the pain trade for the global economy. there are real reasons to keep an eye on the dollar as we test these new highs. tom: erik nielsen, thank you -- erik nelson, thank you so much. a short note. it goes to the soup of china. to me with leland miller and the china beige book saying it is not happening. lisa: gabriella nails it. the noise is so strong. we going to work on your blue look tonight? please send pictures. she is looking to the noise from slowing growth, from the regulatory pressure, from trade, from the covid pandemic, trying

to reconcile all of these aspects. the currency is managed. it has not been an indication of any of this noise. when you talk about the supply chain ramifications coming out of china, there could be serious issues. tom: kailey, what is interesting , to me what we have not talked about is emerging markets drifting away. kailey: i always pay attention when i see a stronger dollar to what emerging-market currencies are doing come into chinese yuan is not immune from. yesterday or wednesday we saw the yuan reach its strongest level. in five years, even as it was weaker against the dollar. lisa: you say to kailey, have you been watching emerging markets. i look at everything. we have will be talking about the implications of the stronger

dollar as well as yields being as low as they are on "the open," one of jon ferro's properties. priya misra will be joining us. curious to see what she sees in terms of the reaction in rates to an announcement of a potential taper. tom: i made a mistake. i mentioned jon was looking at mantra meditation for his manuscript. it is mindfulness meditation. lisa: mindfulness. he is the person i would choose for internal peace. hopefully he can share all of his wisdom. tom: i think it will be on kindle, which is really cool. it is important to have that. it will be hard covert distribution. lisa: real yield. tom: the real meditation with jonathan ferro. [laughter] tom: coming up, and extremely

important conversation on afghanistan and eurasia. george friedman. futures negative nine, dow futures -98. this is bloomberg. good morning. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. the tax raising committees in the house and senate are almost done and have set a september 15 deadline for details. the problem is lawmakers do not know how big president bidens spending package will be and lawmakers do not have ideas about -- a defeat in court for the bided administration on immigration. a federal repeat was court -- a federal appeals court -- the biden administration has allowed asylum-seekers to wait in the u.s.. the cases likely to end up at the supreme court.

a shakeup of the baseball card business has led to the collapse of a merger. a merger deal with topps has been called off by mutual consent a day after major league baseball and the players union agree to an exclusive trading card deal that will end the long time dominance of topps in baseball. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if you ask me what is the strategic priority for the taliban, i would say

consolidation of their power and gaining international legitimacy and recognition. this is the priority for the taliban. george: one of our moments this week on afghanistan with the wonderful fawaz gerges. he is an expert on terror. that was a chilling conversation. it has been an extraordinary week. i want to stay -- i want to say thank you for all of the bloomberg surveillance team. ind my pride way with george friedman, geopolitical -- i end my friday with george friedman. kailey with us. lisa abramowicz preparing for the 9:00. george, thank you for being with us. there is a sentence in your essay. last century we were at war 17% of the time. what went wrong? george: we started to go to work

21% of the time. we were hit by al qaeda. we went into afghanistan on a raid to capture al qaeda. we failed at that and they escaped. then we did not know what to do. we did what we do know how to do, we sit troops in and tried to create a different country. afghanistan is afghanistan. it has been that way for a long time. in the end we spent a generation there. 20 years. we've got nowhere in terms of pacifying the country. it is time to leave. when you leave a war, it looks ugly. more ugly than most, but it looked ugly. tom: i thought of you about four or five days ago, 19 56 and the hungarian revolution. you lived, get out of dodge, get out of the country. how do you see the united states

assisting afghans who say -- the taliban want out of afghanistan. how do we get them out smoother and faster? george: i do not know. there are probably hundreds of thousands who would like to leave. we do not have the aircraft to move them out. the taliban is the most powerful force in the country. they won the war. they will impose the rules they want to have. we may negotiate with them, but at this point we have reached a situation where we are not in control of afghanistan. we do not have the option to make decisions. tom: you mentioned complexity. policy complexity, tactical complexity because we do not have a theory, we do not have a strategy. george: fundamental interest in united states is to make sure north america is secure. our number one interest is easy,

keep canada and mexico happy. number two is control the oceans. we control the atlantic and pacific. we are secure. we can get involved in eurasia very carefully. these wars like vietnam, like afghanistan place us at a disadvantage. the native population does not like us. they want us out. they will beat us because they are not going anywhere. we are coming in. we will never have enough force to take a country like afghanistan. we are frivolously involving you and ourselves and things that look good and deluding ourselves that our norma's power is infinite -- our enormous power is infinite. the longer you stay the uglier it gets. kailey: obviously the united states has power. it is a matter of how it is used.

will we no longer see the u.s. as the police country of the world? george: a global hegemon is very careful in how it uses its power. it does not fritter it away on secondary issues. afghanistan was never a strategic issue for the united states once osama bin laden left. it is a country the russians were defeated in, the british were defeated in. we have to make sure our cost benefit analysis is correct. there is a price in going to war. you do not wave a wand. we saw that in vietnam and did not learn. now after 20 years there people that say we stood -- we should have stayed longer. we were not going to win. tom: you are an expert in our machinery. have we finally figured out the technology does not win, in vietnam, in cambodia, technology does not win in kabul or north on the border with use pakistan

-- with uzbekistan? george: it could win if you are prepared to inflict horrible casualties on the enemy. the united states was not prepared to engage in indiscriminate war against the taliban. the problem was not lack of technology, it was we fought a war we did not have to win and therefore we pooled our punches, unlike germany or japan where we did everything we needed to win. we did not do that in afghanistan. tom: george friedman, thank you so much. i look forward to speaking to you again. george friedman, geopolitical futures founder. it has been an extraordinary week of conversations on afghanistan. what is her observation into the weekend? kailey: it will continue to be a story with the international response.

when we think about conflict it is the u.s. versus adversaries. with how badly this withdraw from afghanistan has gotten it has become the u.s. versus its allies in the fragility of the nato alliance with country saying the bided administrate -- the biden administration handle this so poorly. it is a question what we do with our friends, not our foes. tom: that is yesterday where the former supreme commander of nato went. this is not about projection to the middle east or projection to what remains of afghanistan, but projection to whatever it was invented off the shores of newfoundland in 1940. nato's future will be tested as well. the markets are constructive. we have much better markets than we had two hours ago. green on the screen. nasdaq 100 positive. standard & poor's negative six. jon ferro, i will not quote the dow.

it is a sensitive moment that we missed john. i think will be back monday. stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. jamie: i have an exclusive western and southern open update for bloomberg tv from tennis channel. a major update in the women's draw on day four in cincinnati. naomi osaka was sent packing in three tough sets. she took advantage of 4 -- of 41 unforced errors from the former number one in the biggest win of her career. >> i am shaking right now. i'm very happy with this win. i had a tough year and i had many injuries.

i am really happy it is working out now. jaime: and don't forget you can watch all of the action exclusively live on tennis channel. ♪

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lisa: a soggy end to the week. from new york city, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. "countdown to the open" starts

right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with the big issue. growth concerns taking their toll. >> there have been growth wobbles. >> global growth is slowing somewhat. >> some of this growth has been slowed. >> we are starting to see is the growth continuing to slow down? >> university of michigan confidence was surprisingly week last friday. >> getting some downtrends in data like retail sales. >> a lot of it has to do with what w