>> the economy will be quite strong. >> it is all about the transition to higher quality growth. >> we've got a reflationary backdrop still in place. >> we already saw inflation is tapering down. >> for the last year, it has always been employment, employment, employment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thrilled you are with us this morning. jon ferro off. kailey leinz in for jon ferro. lisa, let's go right there. the real yield, negative one point gloom gets to lesser negative numbers. lisa: raising questions for the

federal reserve which is how quickly are they going to allow that to rise at a time when there is so much uncertainty. are we seeing peak delta fears, or is this a prolonged slowdown that is going to affect gdp figures? tom: the thing i see out of the weekend is what we talk about on friday, it occurred friday afternoon. i was waiting for monday morning. never got there. but not a canceled jackson hole, but a different jackson hole. lisa: the idea that it was moved to virtual highlights potential economic pain from the dragging on of this pandemic because think about all of the canceled hotel rooms, all of the canceled flights, all of the canceled dinners. it is all revenue for different areas in the nation. you wonder how long this prolongs the recovery at a time when offices are basically being pushed out in terms of their closures for that much longer. what does the new normal look like when we have had this for years? tom: kayleiy -- kailey, i want

to go to you. vaccination mandates, that is a big deal. kailey: it is. this is just one and a series of companies to have instituted similar policies. you have banks like morgan stanley now having a vaccination mandates and broadly, the return to office being complicated and delayed. if you have people not coming back into the cities, what does that mean for all of the lunch places around those offices? tom: that is a manhattan kind of thing. i like about chevron is they are international. these are companies that are really in the thick of it. lisa: the idea here is carrots versus sticks. originally it was carrots. we will give you money.

new car, promotions, whatever you want to say. tom: red sox tickets. lisa: although i am not sure if you want any at this point. on the flipside, it is get your vaccination, or you don't work here. tom: let's do a data check right now to get started. futures up 16, dow futures up 153. the vix, 18.64. i expect that to come in under 70 as well -- under 17 as well. bitcoin, util good to see how much i've missed here, $50,3 15. did you ever expect we would see bitdog above $50,000? kailey: it depends on who you listen to. some expected to go over $100,000. lisa: like matt miller. tom: there we go. brent crude with a constructive field to the market. spx up 15 points as well. lisa, what do you have on the wall? lisa: today i am looking at some

of the high-frequency data points. at 9:55, market manufacturing as well as services pmi data. this follows weaker data in europe. how much are we going to see weakening as a result of the spreading delta variant? at 10 a clock a.m., u.s. july existing home sales. we expect the celebration. how much are we inspecting prices to slow that much more? how much higher could they potentially go at a time when rates are expected to rise? today, vacation is over early. house of representatives back to d.c., voting labor day on the senate budget resolution. how much can they push forward bidens $4.1 trillion agenda, given the fact that the democrats are so bifurcated, so dispersed in their views in terms of how to proceed economically. this is one of the biggest question marks.

how much of this stimulus has been baked into market valuation? what kind of taxation does that include? tom: make about past labor day on that critical vote seen today and tomorrow as well. right now, this is very important in hindsight. one of the interviews of the week last week was david stubbs of j.p. morgan asset management, who was absolutely brilliant on the underestimation of technology and productivity. david lebovitz is with j.p. morgan asset management, their global market strategist. i think it is an exceptionally intelligent statement of optimism into the future. why should we be optimistic, given our productivity and technology dynamics? david: i think one of the things we keep coming back to when we

think about portfolio construction is that there's a lot of excitement around value, a lot of excitement around this idea that growth can remain above trend for the foreseeable future. we hear a lot of clients saying maybe we are embarking on this period of sustained outperformance of the economy. i think that is an appropriate view to hold in the short to medium-term. longer-term, this is still a world of 2% growth, probably 2% inflation, and very low rates. and that type of world, technology plays a larger role. it is this idea of owning growth and renting value from a portfolio perspective because we think the economic gains over the longer-term are going to be driven by things like technology, and as a result, those allocations deserve a standing allocation within the context of a diversified portfolio. lisa: how much does jackson hole

which is now virtual, matter to any of these longer-term calls? david: i think jackson hole going virtual is really interesting. i wonder if instead, it is sending some of -- sending and interacts -- sending an indirect signal by making that transition. longer-term, it is important to recognize the economy is really no different than it was a couple of years ago. we have gotten better at doing things from home. we have gotten better at relying on technology. but in general, this is still an economy which is constrained only supply-side. labor supply continues to look disappointing, and i would argue that has been exacerbated by the pandemic. that puts the onus back on productivity. what we really need to listen to at jackson hole and over the next couple of meetings is what is the outlook for labor force participation. that is the big issue right now. there's no problem when it comes to the demand for labor. there's tremendous problem when

it comes to generating an appropriate supply. pursing any statements from powell or other fed governors to get a sense of their long-term views on employment i think is arguably the most important thing to focus on in the current environment. kailey: couldn't the delta variant in syria throw a giant wrench into that labor market recovery? we? heard the u.s. labor secretary marty walsh talking about that, that because of all the uncertainty, people may be more reluctant to return to work. do you buy into the idea? david: i thinned i do. we have spent the last 18 months or so locked down indoors, veering -- being very cautious, re-engaging with society is going to be challenging for some individuals. what is really interesting is there was some very good research done out of uc davis and the san francisco fed where they look at the way the consumer behaves coming out of pandemics specifically. what they found is that consumers were a little bit more

gun shy. they tended to save relevant splurge and spend. i think cautious optimism is appropriate here. i think we are in the process of moving past this pandemic, and we are very constructive on the outlook for 2022, but think the most important thing for investors is recognizing that this big surge, asymmetric response to the downturn we saw and the second quarter of last year, isn't necessarily going to materialize. that doesn't mean growth can't were main above trend, but it doesn't mean that it really rocks and rolls the way a lot of people were expect. lisa: do using this means we could remain in this goldilocks scenario for a longer period of time? can stocks continue to hold their value? david: even with a tax increase next year, we are still at more than $200 a chair from an

earnings perspective. when you think about the fed dynamic, the past couple of weeks everyone has been thinking about tapering and normalization, and maybe it is going to come sooner than expected. you kind of get the jab from the other side you were not expecting with the fed going virtual for jackson hole. this is a fed that is going to take it's time, going to measure twice and cut once. i do think equities can continue to move higher. tom: david level what's with a brief there from j.p. morgan -- david lebovitz with a brief there from j.p. morgan asset management. with all of this cautiousness, there's people measuring earnings, and then there's people looking at the mac. they are on two different planets. lisa: you can be pessimistic about the economic outlook and still positive on the equity market. arguably, you can be more positive on equities if you have

perhaps a more tempered view of the economy because frankly, people say the biggest risk to equity markets right now is higher inflation, perhaps a more hawkish fed. that is not if you get a slower growth factor -- growth backdrop. tom: in chair powell's speech, you wonder if you will define inflation he's watching. kailey: they are also watching the labor market really closely. i wonder if that is what the fed is prioritizing. as the delta variant then become more concerning? i'm focused not just on this friday, but the following friday, and with the jobs report is going to look like because they want to see several consecutive months of a strong job report. august would make it multiple. tom: that is going to be interesting to see. look for kailey leinz with complete coverage of the jobs report on september 3. we are looking forward to that. futures up 16, dow futures up 155. stay with us.

this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: bloomberg has learned british prime minister boris johnson will push president biden to delay the departure of u.s. troops from afghanistan to allow for more and safer evacuations. the president has already said he might have to extend the deadline for u.s. troops leaving past the original august 31 date. the u.s. and its partners have now flown out more than 30,000 people from kabul since august 14. u.s. labor secretary marty walsh has high hopes for september, but the alta variance aggressive path has shaken his expectation for a rapidly recovering market. in an interview with bloomberg, while says he thinks concerned about the coronavirus is dragging on the workforce and economic growth. in tennessee, at least 22 killed and dozens still missing after record rain since floodwaters surging through rural areas.

up to 17 inches of rain fell during a 24 hour period about 16 miles west of nashville. rescue crews are searching for survivors. bitcoin has gone over the $50,000 mark for the first time since mid-may. the total crypto market has seen its value climb almost $1 trillion in the last month alone. pfizer has agreed to buy shares of therapeutics it doesn't already own in a deal that represented 24% premium. the deal will help pfizer strengthen its leadership in oncology. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the threat is real. it is acute, it is persistent.

our commanders on the ground have a wide variety of capabilities that they are using to defend against a potential terrorist attack. we are working hard with our intelligence community to try to determine where an attack might come from. tom: jake sullivan, u.s. national security advisor come with cnn. jake sullivan, a really -- of really pristine academics, being put to test with crisis in afghanistan. a set of headlines which we are going to discuss with michael mckee in half an hour, but they have been widely anticipated. the toolkit of china involves their unique monetary policy. lisa: a lot of people have been inspecting china to cut rates further. here the headlines are that they are calling for efforts, the

pboc calling for efforts to push down real lending rates, pledging support to the economy with appropriate money growth and vowing to keep stable the growth of credit. we have seen the credit impulse shrink in china at a time of slowing growth, and at a time when we get a lot of commentary from xi jinping, as well as others, about trying to make it a more equal prosperity within this country as it shifts into a new regime. tom: early friday, renminbi out to 6.50. stronger renminbi off the headlines. we will dive in with michael mckee and a bit. right now, emily wilkins with us of bloomberg government in washington. what does the president do this morning? ? ? he's had a challenging weekend, to say the least. what is the biden agenda this morning? emily: two big things for president biden this. -- this week. number one, trying to get u.s.

citizens onto airplanes, as well as those afghan citizens who are really struggling to get in through that airport. tom: does he have an identified czar yet? i haven't really seen the afghans are for the president -- the afghan czar for the president. emily: at this time, it might cut into the time they need to simply move. they are looking for an august 31 deadline. during president biden say he got extend that deadline. he's been under pressure to extend that deadline from pressure from boris johnson and the u.k., as well as others in his own party. we are seeing reporting saying that the taliban might up their aggression after august 31, after that set deadline, until the pressure is really on for the u.s. to make sure they are getting people onto planes and out of the country. lisa: how much assisted topic of discussion when the house of representatives comes back to washington, d.c.? emily: that's a really great question. definitely we are going to be

seeing more attention in d.c. this week on the whole process of moving that budget resolution . there's a tough vote coming up in the house because democrats aren't yet united on it. if the vote takes place today, it looks like it is going to fail because these nine moderate democrats are still planning to vote no. they've got to vote on a process of rule today, and then they will have the vote later in the week. this afghanistan issue is not going away. there's going to be a classified briefing this week, more hearings coming on this issue. i think you are going to see a lot of lawmakers continue to focus and while they move through the budget resolution of the budget reconciliation, and the infrastructure built. lisa: we have been talking about how congress members were brought back early from their they case in. our hearts go out to them. what did they hear from their constituents when they went home with respect to the $4.1

trillion fiscal support he was planning to roll out? emily: a lot of them who we have talked to have said that a lot of their constituents are more focused on this infrastructure built, as well as different aspects of the expansion of childcare and medicare. if you have looked at the polling over a number of years about what americans care about, domestic stuff continually wins, as heartbreaking as the images coming out of kabul are. the things that are going to really impact them on a day-to-day basis or what is coming out of congress right now. kailey: what does it mean as these two situations unfold separately? where does that leave biden in

terms of little capital? emily: president biden has a difficult line to walk here because of the immense amount of criticism they are under. given the info search or plan is hitched to some thing president biden wants, this is something all democrats really want to some extent. they might differ over the price of this entire package, but they do want it to pass, or at least elements of it to pass. so i think you are going to see congressional democrats continue that momentum on the budget reconciliation package and on the infrastructure package, even as a number of them have criticized the biden administration for their withdrawal in afghanistan. tom: what do these moderates do on infrastructure? how do they support the liberals? emily: the standoff here is basically over when the infrastructure built package

passes. if you are a moderate, the infrastructure bill is a really clear win for you. it is a bipartisan thing people like. it is going to impact your district. the reconciliation bill, while parts of it are a clear win, you are already seeing publicans attack democrats on this. you are seeing millions spent on tv and digital ads from republican and conservative groups coming after democrats, say and look how much they are spending. isn't this awful? what some of these moderate democrats have told me they want to do is just have infrastructure past, message on that, saying look what we did, look what we are bringing home to our districts, and then let's deal with the more murky reconciliation, which democrats, there are things in the package would certainly like, but we are also seeing it a talk by republicans. tom: thanks so much. greatly appreciate it. we will have full coverage on this, particularly "balance of power" later at the 12:00

hour. we have seen a substantial drawdown. lisa: huge. it was really dramatic in the s&p. in fairness, there was a huge selloff in some of the energy stocks. you are seeing those bounce back more today, but you saw the biggest selloff in oil and related equities going back to 2018. so there were pockets, but overall, man. tom: i've got a copy of drawdown meditation. it is just the first chapter. the introduction as well. what was in the data screen on the bloomberg terminal the got your attention? kailey: i'm looking at oil because it was the worst move for oil last week since october 2020, and goldman sachs saying that selloff was overdone. they are still looking for $80 on brent and the fourth quarter. that didn't look all too unrealistic, so i am keeping it

in mind. tom: very interesting. lisa didn't tell me that. lisa: i will send it to you next time. tom: dow futures up 133. stay with us. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪

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tom: "bloomberg surveillance," a monday of the jackson hole week. lisa abramowicz and i not attending jackson hole this week. it will be virtual. but i've been told by mr. mckee we have still a great lineup of people to speak to to drive forward that conversation to chairman powell's speech. we will get to that with bill dudley here in a moment. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. kailey leinz in for jon ferro. dow futures up 38. a nice correlated lift to the market with higher yields, 1.27% , up to basis points on the 10 year yield. the dollar, fractional weaknesses well. oil with a lift, and goldman sachs out to $80 a barrel as well. on the granularity of the market, romaine bostick. good morning. romaine: we talk about the

broader market moving higher here in the premarket, but some of the individual movers, the most notable ones are going down. keep an eye on some of those delivery companies, ride-hailing and food delivery companies. back in november, the state of california here in the u.s. past that ballot measure that basically exempted a lot of these independent contractors from various state labor laws. a judge on friday said that ballot measure violates the state constitution. a lot of analysts already saying ultimately, huber and doordash and the like will still win this level -- huber and -- uber and doordash and the like will likely still win that battle. the chevy volt in an extended recall is going to cost the company and add to about $800 million it spent on another recall back in july. tom: mary barra, when she is

talking to david westin, everything is happy, happy. did i hear you say this is the second recall? romaine: it is actually the third recall. but you make a good point here. she has done a good job of putting a face on this, but remember, a lot of the reason why we see shares have rallied the months prior to this is largely because of cost control measures borr -- control measures barra put in place. of course, the boat is going to be the legacy vehicle and all of this, but definitely raises questions about things going forward. keep an eye on pfizer and all of the other vaccine stocks expected today or tomorrow to gantry -- today or tomorrow. the fda expected to grant full authorization. tom: is that not a typo? romaine: that is not a typo,

pfizer buying trillium, a big oncology company. they are offering $18 50 since a share for this company, triple what the shares closed out on friday. if you are buying the stock today, it should be up 191%. tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much. always a joy to speak to william dudley, former president of the new york federal reserve. the interesting mandate at the new york fed. bloomberg columnist. a virtual jackson hole. you and i have been there. the central bankers go out, they wave at the moose at the split rail fence. they are not going to do that this year. how does it change if jackson hole was virtual? william: it illuminates all of the side conversations at luncheons, on hikes, so there isn't the kind of back channel kind of communication that you

might get otherwise. there's a number of things i would love to talk about that have nothing to do with monetary policy, and what do they plan to do on payments and cryptocurrencies and digital currencies, their attitude about climate change. there's a lot of things to talk about. if you don't have those opportunities, you can't talk about those things tom: from the factious fed development -- the fractious fed development in the early 1950's out to now, where is the fed mandate consider climate change? how did they do that? william: i think they certainly have a mandate for climate change from a financials debility perspective area --

financial stability perspective. it does threaten individual institutions, and the fed has responded to that. they set up to committees -- they set up two committees to address this. they are pushing the individual institutions to develop data and processes to evaluate limit risk -- evaluate climate risk. monetary policy is more difficult because monetary policy is about what happens next year or two, not that i asked -- not the next 20 or 30 years. even if you think climate change is an existential threat, which i thick it is, it is not clear how you would incorporate climate change risk into your near-term monetary policy decisions. that is where the fed is getting criticism from people saying it is not doing enough on climate change. it is difficult to think the monetary policy mandate and say

that really expands to climate change. lisa: it also goes to the question of policy drift. has the bed got to ash has the fed gotten too far from their goals of trying to control inflation and support the labor market? the labor market goals are a lot less defined perhaps then in the past. you have perhaps other goals like climate change and other initiatives that feel more like policy. how much is the fed risking allowing some of their main goals, namely inflation, to get out of control as it focuses on some of these other goals? william: i think this is why chair powell hasn't gone that far in the climate change direction from a monetary policy perspective, compared to the european central the understanding is that there is a risk of being criticized in going too far. that said, the financials debility part is certainly part of the fed mandate because without financial stability, the fed can achieve its goals on inflation and unemployment.

i think the fed is taking the right course, to gain climate change seriously, by focusing on it with safety and soundness. kailey: you mentioned some of the criticism the fed has gotten for not acting in a more aggressive way. a lot of that comes from the progressives who would may be like to see someone else at the helm. we have janet yellen over the weekend reportedly telling advisors she should support powell for a second term. how significant is that? william: i think treasury secretary yellen's endorsement is important because she knows what is needed from the chair of the federal reserve, and she is very well expected in and out of the administration. i think also, chair powell is really the path of least resistance. he's shown that he is capable and has support on both sides of the political aisle. if progressives nominative someone consistent with what they want, i think it would be

harder to get that person confirmed. kailey: tom -- lisa: tom asked a question earlier today. given that chair powell is likely to remain at the helm, what inflation is he looking for ? william: i think they have focused on the notion of is this transitory or is this going to be more persistent. to have persistent inflation, you have to have labor and pressure on wages, and you have to have a rise in inflation expectations. so far it looks like there is still some slack in the liver market, and inflation expeditions have risen a little bit, really two levels more consistent with what the fed wants, so at this point, the fed view is that the inflation pressures we are having our transitory. probably they are going to be more persistent than one would like for transitory pressures.

the inflation rate will probably stay above 2% for a while. as long as those things are ok, the federal reserve will be pretty comfortable with where inflation is right now. tom: as did secretary yellen, can you tell us this morning you would support the renomination, the reappointment of chairman powell? william: absolutely. he's done a terrific job, and with the whole fomc behind him, i think he has articulated fed policy and a clear and consistent way, so i don't see any reason why he wouldn't be. tom: thank you so much for joining us this morning, former president of the new york federal reserve and senior advisor to bloomberg economics. what a statement there from bill dudley. lisa: throwing support behind

fed chair powell. i think a lot of former fed officials are like, why rock the boat? tom: not a small item. lisa: it is not, especially at a time of so much uncertainty when the fed really does control the markets. a lot of people have said the main challenge to stocks right now is a possible policy error. keeping things the way they are is going to reduce the anxiety around that. tom: it really folds into how we get through q3 and q4 because we have a mystery of what gdp is going to be. at least a lot of different opinions. kailey: what gdp is going to do, what the markets are going to do , where the s&p 500 ends up. there seems to be why divergence among where they think different assets will go, the fed is a huge question mark within that. to the point about fed chair powell, maybe some continuity if he is appointed to a second term. you also have to consider where powell stands relative to the

other members of the fomc and how big that divergence in opinion is between the leader and the members. tom: bill dudley talking about climate change with fed, and the article over the weekend, the rain in greenland, i have no idea -- i had no idea how high the ice sheet was in greenland. in the rocky mountains, that is way up. lisa: all the stories about henri, also talked about what we saw in terms of smoke over the north pole for the first time ever, this idea that we are seeing the ramifications of climate change, but really, what is the fed going to do about it? from a monetary policy standpoint. tom: it is nice to hear about it. stay with us on radio, on television. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. senate allies have -- the u.s. and its allies have now flown 30,000 people out of afghanistan. bloomberg has learned boris johnson will push president biden to extend the deadline passed august 31 so the evacuations can continue. the president has already suggested that might be necessary. vice president kamala harris is in singapore, where she announced a new supply chain initiative. she and the prime minister have also announced an agreement on cybersecurity. talks today did not cover new trade agreements. tropical storm henri soaked the u.s. northeast with rain after coming ashore in rhode island. the storm left a trail of our outages from new jersey to massachusetts. that 1000 flights were canceled and amtrak had to cancel trains between new york and boston. israel's prime minister will try to persuade president biden

against reviving the nuclear deal with iran. the two leaders meet in washington. on twitter, he said he would present a plan that would curb iran's clear activities and what he called regional aggression. disney says it has taken in 125 million dollars in online revenue from "black widow." the movie prompted a lawsuit from star scarlett johansson, said she was cheated out of money because disney released the film both in theaters and online. disney says they are willing to include online sales encapsulating her bonuses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we are playing a say sort of

strategy before we talk about -- [indiscernible] tom: the hong kong commerce and economic to 11 secretary there on a forever changed hong kong. right now, two things to accomplish. first, a chart observation. you can't start monday without one. david wilson, what do you have? dave: what i am looking at is what folks at gmo are paying attention to, and specifically, share sales by u.s. companies, whether we are talking initial public offerings or subsequent sales. they have really taken off in the past year or so. you can argue whether that is part of the coronavirus pandemic , but basically, the concern is that we are well above where we were at the peak back in 2000, all according to data compiled

by the federal reserve. tom: share sales or bond sales? dave: share sales, equity. there's a bit of a lag to it because the most recent data covers march. you are talking about 12 months basically an average over time. total it up, and you look at we were this past march, $26 billion over a 12 month period, 60% up since 2000. tom: the gmo has been very cautious over the years. do they still maintain tentativeness? dave: they are concerned about what lies ahead. the share sales, when the ducks are quacking, feed them seems to be the philosophy at this point. that is a concern for them. tom: futures up 15, 0 .3%. the dow is up 1.57%. right now, it is a changed escutcheon with michael mckee.

the former vice chairman with jackson hole, including a paintbrush to cascade. michael mckee, you can't do that virtually, can you? michael: no, unfortunately. as you can see behind me, this is not the grantee tons -- the grand titans. they've issued a code red warning, no meetings, so they unfortunately had to move to a virtual platform. lisa: a lot of people saying this sends a pretty strong signal. they concerned about the potential ramifications for the economy. is it fair to say that it is symbolic that it is going to be held remotely, the same way that it was last year? michael: it is, and it does suggest the u.s. faces some problems with the economy.

what we don't know is how people are going to react this year. the over variant -- the delta variant became serious after retail sales came into play. only towards the end of july, so even when we get personal spending friday, it may not tell us enough about what the consumer is going to do. we do have the sentiment index that sort of collapsed going into august, and the fed has to decide whether or not this means they should lay any kind of paper announcement. i suspect kind of taper and up -- kind of taper announcement. lisa: that is perhaps more important than what happens this friday. meanwhile, i want to get your sense of what has been going on over in china. this is the graceful pivot point, the pboc saying they want to give additional support to the economy. this does have to do with the delta variant and how much that

has slowed the economic recovery in that nation. what do you make of the headlines this morning about the pboc's pledge to do more? michael: i think it tells you more about demand than necessarily how they are going to conduct monetary policy, but remember, the pboc is really the chinese communist party, and the party is concerned, it appears, about the direction of growth in china, one reason being they shut things down when they get cases. obviously, demand is going to be seriously affected. what do they do about it? they have been very reluctant cut interest rates. they have cut the reserve ratio, and they might do that again, or they could put more money into the markets for the repo facility that the youth. so for they have just matched demand and not flooded the market, but that seems to be less important than the idea that there is a problem going forward with china, which means a problem for the rest of the world because of demand is lower there, we are going to see if you are exports to china from

not just the united states, but from everywhere else. kailey: china has adapted a covid zero policy, and it works. they have zero new local cases, but it took shutting down wide swathes of the country. there is not the appetite really for that here in the u.s., so when it comes to the real economic impact, is that enough of an excuse for the fed to say it is not time yet because of the delta variant? michael: it could be. the problem is they don't have enough data on that at this point because they are not going to be shutting down anywhere except for the fed conference. we are not going to have hard data that really can be attributed to a shift in policy. we are looking at what the psychological impact is going to be on people. are you going to stay home more? that is the question the fed really isn't going to be able to answer for some months. i suspect you will get some version of we are watching this closely, and we will make a

decision when we have a better feel for it. that doesn't rule out september, but it doesn't guarantee anything either. tom: what does the jobs report mean after this? michael: from the fed's point of view less from the market point of view, the market takes it as a sort of signpost. but the jobs report -- or the survey is taken early in july, and that was before we get the great shut down, or before anything happens with the delta changes. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. with really important coverage on friday, really thrilled we will be with him. lots of discussions with various and sundry governors, presidents, and of course, the chairman's speech as well. lisa, i look at all of this and the shutdown of new york, the reopening, i went out friday night for the first time in 18

months. i have a sheltered, monastic life. i expected it would be all partitioned and covid-y. lisa: covid-y? tom: it was crazy. no masks. i was stunned. lisa: is this the first time you had seen this? tom: i will be honest, the first time i had seen this. lisa: there is a changed attitude in some urban centers, at least this one in new york city, were allowed people i speak to say, look, i am fully vaccinated. if i get sick, i get sick. but the reality is we've got to move on, and if i am not going to get hospitalized, i am not going to die, what is the big deal? i wonder when we cross that threshold into treating covid like any other virus. tom: i went ahead and had a budweiser. lisa: yeah, right. like at mickey d's -- bud light at mickey d's. [laughter] are you buying that?

kailey: nah. tom is a stella man, or a dry martini. lisa: there you go. tom: oh yes, nailed it. [laughter] lisa: stirred, not chicken. tom: dow future -- not shaken. tom: dow futures up. stay with us. good morning.

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>> the economy will continue to not boom, but be quite expensive, quite strong. >> it is all about the transition to higher-quality growth. >> i think we've got a reflationary backdrop still in place. >> we've already seen signs inflation is tapering down. >> for the last year, and has always been employment, employment, employment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning. countdown to a zoom symposium sounds less good than countdown to jackson hole. this is "bloomberg surveillance"