tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 24, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
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>> this growth could be extended as we continue to deal with the push-pull of covid. >> this is not a market that has a lot of room to exhort add news when we get. >> i think the market is telling you we are closer to disinflation that inflation. >> the expectation is that the fed will signal a more dovish tone. >> this is a fed that is going to measure twice and cut once. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: the race toward optimism. who can be the biggest bull
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on the street? this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and television. tom keene and lisa abramowicz. kailey leinz and for jon ferro ahead of -- kailey leinz in for jon ferro ahead of her wedding, which we will be very much congratulating her on. tom: off what we had last week with some real difficult stream of news, and of course, the shock of no jackson hole, and on to where it is just a statement on earnings. a guest coming up is quite good on this. it is the purity of the move up in the last two days the gets my attention. lisa: i keep having this voice in my head saying the stock market is not the economy. how long can we get i divergence -- get a divergence? tom: you have to enjoy losing money three times in a row off of that axum, and i really can't -- that maxim, and i really
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can't say enough. lisa: i wonder how much emphasis there is on consumer spending and the power of that, especially headed into september, with the runoff of some of the stimulus programs, the checks that people have been getting. how much is that a risk for citing -- a risk people are citing? kailey: that's what you had for jan hatzius when he downgraded his outlook for gdp. it strikes me, to your point about the difference between the stock market and the economy, he has that downgraded gross call at the same time that goldman's chief equity strategist david kostin was the most bullish on the street come with a 4700 price target on the s&p 500 for year-end. those things coexisting at the same time. lisa: this is the reason it is so hard to understand what the fed is going to do this thursday and friday at the virtual jackson hole summit. the idea that you have an economy that still needs help, a stock market that really does not, how do they square these two realities at a time when we
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are worried about wealth and equality, and a disproportionate number of wealthy individuals are benefiting from their easy money policies. tom: you know what? it is just not the same as sitting in the lodge and wondering out on the lawn to wave at the moose. i think they are most. maybe they are elk -- i think they are moose. maybe they are elk. i can't remember. the important thing is it is all going to hinge on the chairman's speech. i'm going to go where brian belski of bmo capital markets says taper is well overdone. taper could be good for the markets. futures up six come the vix, 17.29. turkish lira in. i've got to throw in audible here. what are you looking at an fx icu euro -- at in fx? i see euro.
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kailey: i was looking at the thai baht this morning because there's the idea that we are seeing peak covid cases in thailand. that was reading through to the optimism in the asian fx session. i wonder if we are starting to have a conversation about covid cases here in the u.s., what that would through -- what that readthrough will be to these markets. tom: it is amazing. she can mention thai baht, and i can bring it up for because that is a bloomberg u.s. dtht, and there it is. [laughter] lisa: thanks for that value add. look at that. tom: joining us, someone who is fluent in thai, sarah bayless joins us now from nuveen. i love your research note. it is clear, it is crisp, it is sharp. what is the single distinction in your note that is an optimistic note?
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sarah: we will start with the disagreement between the stock market and the bond market recently, including yesterday. we think the stock market is looking for silver linings. we expect to see good academic data this week not only with pmi's, but in consumer confidence. also, look at vaccination rates. they are up quite significantly in august, and we think in the u.s., the delta variant is peaking. all of that together we think is a positive for the stock market, now leaning into. we expect volatility around jackson hole and uncertainty around the variant, but soon the pages going to turn to 2022. high single digit earnings growth, that is not a bear market. that is the type of market that can put up strong returns. not as strong as this year and last year, but still strong positive returns going forward based on that earnings growth. lisa: so how big of a bull are you? gina: we are pretty bullish -- saira: we are pretty bullish
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over the medium to long-term. lisa: everyone is like, there could be volatility, which means buying opportunities. nobody says there's going to be volatility, which brings doom and gloom. is that a contrarian indicator that concerns you? saira: when we are speaking doom and gloom, this is a longer-term, structural issue with the economy. it is something we saw where there was a bubble, or inflation is so high that we are going to go into a proper recession, volatility you may see coming up short term. this is more like 2013. you see downside a 5% to 10%. it is going to be very short-term. market timing and that market is a loser's game. you could even see with china here we were looking at something like las vegas recently, trading back in march 2020 lows. when we see that kind of downside, it is very quick to rebound when it is not based on long-term structural issues for
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the economy. kailey: i wondering what specifically would be on your shopping list. when you look at some of the reopening trades, they are already well off of the highs we saw this year. we saw a money manager at morgan stanley thing you need to buy those reopening trades before it is too late. do you agree with that? saira: we are more interested in stocks that have pricing power because we think there is some permanence to inflation going forward. second is you need to look at companies that can hit high margins, who also have that pricing power to overcome the margins so they can continue to expand them or preserve them. we like small caps, actually. they are trading at a bigger discount to large caps then we saw since november 2020. they are tied to higher inflation and higher interest rates. i think infrastructure
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growth will be positive for that. tom: nuveen out of chicago is that of clipping coupons. explained this last night to someone with my beverage of choice in my hand, that nuveen crafted the idea of clipping coupons. does nuveen have the courage to say it is a 10% or 15% trend? saira: that is the important thing, that they continue to grow their dividend. they tend to perform while not only in defense of market, but in period of volatility. this has been a great segment of the market for investors focused because they have that combination of not only nice yields to go along, but the fundamentally strong companies that can continue to increase their dividends. lisa: are high-yield bonds still a leading indicator for equities? saira: i think we are seeing
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they are going into different directions. we see that with widening credit spreads, with the 10 year not matching the optimism of the stock market. our view is that economic data is going to be what is the key winter to seattle -- the key winter -- the key winner. we could get the 30 year a positive returns post recession, usually not a strong,. but still positive. -- not as strong, but still positive. if there is a taper tantrum, we think that will remain on the market until after this period of volatility. saira malik, thank you. it is a very important conversation. we are trying to give you a mixed today of what we see, and we do this within the switch or the barbell, if you will, of
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emotion, from thursday last week to tuesday this week. i'm sorry, it is extraordinary. lisa: i am a flatter. in all honesty -- i am aflutter. in all honesty, there has been a discussion about a shift away from depression of the pandemic, and maybe we can go back to the way we were earlier. we are not out of the woods yet, though. do think, could we get another drawdown of 0.6% on the s&p 500? tom: there we are. come in here with an observation on the equity markets. i know you are reading a magazine, but get to it. kailey: i know, it is under my desk. we have not seen a drawdown of 5% or more on the s&p 500 since november 2020. your approaching 10 months, something like 200 trading days where we haven't seen any of who are the -- any noteworthy declines in markets.
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how long cannot that really be sustainable? lisa: no way is modern brides under the table of kailey leinz. it is foreign policy magazine come are you kidding me? she was sitting in the chair getting her hair and makeup done, she wasn't reading brides magazine. tom: i think the basic idea here is every inch of brides magazine is $20,000. i think the way -- kailey: nothing related to the wedding. tom: i'm sorry, -- is not playing the wedding this morning. kailey: much to my chagrin. tom: we will see. interesting day out there. stay with us. julie normand on afghanistan. we do that next. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.
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the cia director william burns reportedly held a secret meeting with the leader of the taliban. according to the washington post, the two met yesterday in kabul. no comment from the cia. this might clear the discussions involved pending the august 31 deadline. the usa sees a rushing into companies security vetting of thousands of afghan citizens chaos at the kabul airport means some have been put on planes before their background checks are complete. lawmakers are pointing out there's a risk of terrorists and criminals that could slip through -- that could slip through. but president kamala harris reassured countries in southeast asia that they would not be conflict between the two biggest countries. she spoke about the vision for a region built on human rights and unimpeded commerce. in new york, kathy hochul was
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sworn in as governor overnight. hochul takes over after andrew cuomo resigned from a sexual harassment scandal. shares of best buy are higher today. the consumer-electronics chain raised its outlook for products and services. same-store sales were up 21% in the quarter, beating estimates. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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and the shift to high-quality, markets can climb that wall of worry. but it is a very fine balance. there is that resilience that we will able to turn the corner still showing up. tom: rbc capital markets getting out in front of the great bull market we have seen today. asa brummel what's an kailey leinz -- we sabra >> and kailey leinz, -- lisa abramowicz and kailey leinz, ms. leinz and for jon ferro come on a much-needed sabbatical. i don't hear too many people calling gloom on the street. it is out there, but not on the street, is it? lisa: to the extent there is gloom, it is there's going to be a dip, and buy it. we don't see anyone calling for any major retracement at this point, it is hard to see the argument for a huge correction. tom: that is certainly the zeitgeist right now. [laughter] right now we go to afghanistan
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in a unique way. julie normand is at ucl, the university college london, a political sopranos -- a political science professor that covers the field, but her wheeled house -- her wheelhouse is terror and the unrest -- and the unrest across the middle east. she joins us this morning. i said to my executive producer, just give me julie normand now. your thoughts on the reemergence of the taliban. are we reemerging terror? julie: well, the taliban never completely went away, of course. what we are seeing now is somewhat of a new iteration of the group, but still maintaining a lot of the ways of doing things they did in the past. have a lot more savvy messaging now, but what we are seeing on the ground is still very similar to the group we saw 20 years ago
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. a lot of the concern right now is the real threat that afghanistan could once again become a haven not only for the taliban, but also for al qaeda and isis. tom: your public expertise has rules of the road. think israel, palestine, or any of the other fractious issues of the middle east. does the taliban play by the rules? julie: the taliban definitely does not play by the rules. they are a different kind of group than al qaeda or isis. tom: in what way? julie: they focus pretty much on afghanistan. they want to rule that territory, and the way they want to duel it -- that territory, and in the way they want to rule it. they are not concerned with any kind of international presence. they've always been focused on that specific territory. so the taliban do what we
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think of them is a little bit different, and terms of what they directly do, but the concern for the u.s. from a security point of view is that this will become a haven for other groups that will exercise their interest as well. lisa: how is the nature of the impulse changed in terms of attacks? in 2001, it was through the airlines. in 2021, there is much more focus on cyberattacks. where is the risk? julie: it is a great question. what we have seen a lot has shifted away from the larger, airline hijackings and whatnot, to the small scala tax in kabul and most other parts of afghanistan, especially getting
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into more of cyber threats and whatnot, but these groups are focused on doing the most damage they can is message -- they can measured by crude instruments. kailey: we will see what happens come august 31. as for the war on terror, is that one that can really be won? can you defeat an ideology? julie: that is such a great question because biden has obviously very much wanted to end this forever war, trying to do that with this withdrawal of troops. but as you said, the larger war on terror is one that is going to be continuing. we still have different operations going on in different countries, mostly being carried out by drones rather than troops on the ground, and those operations will continue after this troop withdrawal. tom: i look at the study of this
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, and you are so sealed in it. the juxtaposition for me right now is well-dressed, people in control, doing my hands on radio like the fedex commercial from years ago. everyone is in control right now in washington managing the message. the images from afghanistan are from another world. it is not medieval. it is tribal. whenever going to figure out that fancy dressed people managing their hands like a fedex commercial is not going to get it done? how do we get to dealing with a tribal culture? julie: i think you said it right there. if anyone in washington hasn't learned that yet, they are definitely learning it now, that a lot of the fed leak pans -- the fed plate plans did not do well in places like afghanistan is pretty aware of the
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challenges. this operation started in 2001, and we have been aware of the challenges since then. it was always going to be a difficult mission. it became even more difficult with the addition of the iraq war parallel to it. it is a very difficult mission to extract from now. that is partly the nature of afghanistan and partly the nature of the u.s. mission that was there, but it is certainly going to be a lot of analysis on lessons learned from this. tom: professor norman, thank you for this. julie norman, university college london political science professor there. he goes to what we see this morning, a g-7 meeting. everything will be managed. the president will speak. it will be managed. are any of the images we are seeing managed, including reports this morning of massive agony in cutter -- in qatar, with the heat as migrants
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with their? lisa: to me, how does the u.s. get some unity among the allies when there is so much little faith between them, and a lack of trust that has been breached over the past four years, five years, six years between the united states and allies. i am curious to see how g-7 unfolds on that. tom: within history, i just don't think dwight eisenhower was managing the message at the end of world war ii. kailey: to lisa's point, it is a question now of america's standing in the world. is it going to continue to be this global hegemon, the ones that looked to be interfering another country's affairs. are we going to go back to a policy of american restraint? tom: on radio, i am holding up a copy of "foreign affairs: who won the war on terror." is a new addition, must reading for anyone on radio. marcus fullback and -- marking
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tom: bloomberg surveillance. good morning on a tuesday august sleepy summer. not. it has been extraordinary wrapped around a pandemic that will not go away plus what we just learned from julie norman on afghanistan plus events in washington today. kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz holding court. on the floor of bear stearns a million years ago and just before we cut to live someone screamed out price up, yield down. the whole place erupted in laughter as we went live. nobody is laughing now. lisa: greg peters is somebody
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who is gotten the bond market right again and again. he is head of multisector strategy and has been calling for a decline in yields or at least a stasis despite inflated expectations earlier in the year for inflation. here we are at a precipice wearables on wall street cannot get bullish enough about equities. where bond veterans are looking at the bond yields and saying they will not move that much. do you think people could be surprised by bond yields being lower in a bear case for equities? greg: that is a distinct possibility. it is not my base case. i think we are in a symbiotic relationship where low yields allow equities to outperform. not only the discounting mechanism is much lower, but it is a low stable yield environment is broadly supportive of growth, probably supportive of earnings, and should be broadly supportive of risk assets.
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icy the 2 -- i see the two pretty much aligned. your question is if the bond market starts to suss out a rolling over of economic activity, that is clearly not a great outlook for stocks. lisa: if jay powell this friday at his virtual jackson hole speech foretells an earlier taper than the market is expecting, says november rather than december as most people expect, what his reaction in markets? greg: i don't know. personally i do not think a month matters. if the markets are that sensitive around november versus december, then i think it is looking for an excuse to take chips off the table. i am overly worried about it. that is my personal expectation the fed starts to taper in november, maybe december. either way they are tapering.
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equally i am not jammed up on a taper as other folks. tom: part of the dresses out there now is historic liquidity. every morning i look at overnight repo. we have now gone out over $1 trillion. experts tell me it is no big deal. how does the wall of money for into the pgim yield? how does it fold into the simple idea we want to observe and guess where yield is going? greg: the technical dynamics are important here. typically i do not think it changes the direction, but i think it exacerbates the move. that is why i am focused on treasury supply going forward as i think the fact that you're going to see a decline in
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treasury supply year and several years after is highly supportive. at the same time, the u.s. is winning by not losing. the fact that you are seeing so much foreign investment into the u.s. is also supportive. i think these are supportive factors. ultimately it does point of fundamentals. i think fundamentals are the driver, technicals just exacerbate it. tom: i do not want you to make a tenure call, but i do. -- a-10 year -- a ten year call, but i do. bracket the 10 year yield as you see it two years out. greg: our level is about 80 basis points on the 10 year. our call for the end of this year was 120 basis points. we are in striking distance.
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that felt like a terrible call in the first quarter, i have to be honest. quite painful. longer-term, we see an environment where yields will remain low, and honestly i struggle with the narrative that yields are going to jump post fed taper, post economic activity that is off the charts, peak inflation, all of those things are in the rearview. to me i do not see an environment where yields come after all that is thrown at the market, that yields will move higher after the fact. if it does not happen during, that i would be shocked to see it happen after the fact. kailey: i know in about four and a half hours tom keene will be awakening from his nap eagerly watching the two-year treasury auction we are watching -- we are getting at 1:00 eastern. he cannot wait. neither can lisa.
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how do you think about foreign buyers in the treasury market? greg: we have been seeing it, particular he as we get closer to taper, whether november or december or january. the fact that you are seeing foreign buyers increase their purchase power within the u.s. treasury market is important. i think that is a strong technical factor. i expect that to continue. i try not to get overly taxed by a single auction event. over time, you will continue to see the options do quite well -- the auctions do quite well. foreign participation will be high. kailey: the u.s. is attractive because it is still the highest yield you can get in sovereign bond markets globally. even if you expect yields to be staying lower, will that still remain true? greg: i think so. we play a relative game.
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we are looking at where yields are in europe, where yields are in japan, and the u.s. has the most attractive yield environment. i did not see that changing anytime soon. i do not think anyone is forecasting european yields to move above zero over the near term or ever. i think the support for u.s. treasuries, u.s. assets will be quite strong, which is why i think the dollar will continue to do well, which is somewhat against consensus or was against consensus. lisa: before we let you go, i want to ask the philosophical question. as we talk about the fed and their ongoing asset purchases every month at a time of rising inequality, at a time of inflated asset prices come at a time when a lot of people are saying corporate profits are as good as they will ever get and
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will continue to accelerate from here because of their dominance over specific sectors. is this bond purchasing program or helpful than it is harmful at this point? greg: that is a great question. clearly inequality is something that has worsened during the pandemic. you're creating a wealth effect. central bank policy is one instrument. this portfolio channel effect where raising asset prices to increase spending has not work that well. i think the fed focus will continue to be around getting real wages higher. for me the focus is less on prices but getting real wages higher. i think that is the most important piece of the puzzle to solve, not only in the u.s. but globally as inequality has worsened quite dramatically over the past 12 to 18 months. tom: greg peters, thank you so
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much. pgim head of multi sector strategy. optimism on price. yields maybe not lower but nevertheless contained. i have to take notice. we have an intern in the control room, all they do is keep track of the great questions. do you realize kailey leinz has two great questions today? lisa: i think she has more than two. tom: i do not think jon ferro has ever done that. kailey: do you really -- lisa: you really keep track of this? lisa: no, we have in it -- tom: no, we have an intern that keeps track of this. a paid intern. lisa: on a more serious note, it is hard to ask questions at a time where there seems to be such an incredible consensus. when you challenge the consensus
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that is bullish on many counts and does not see any contrarian indicators to this in terms of a big drawdown, you do wonder how you question it? kailey: it seems like everyone is singing the same tune. if you are not you sound off key. we have been talking about how bullish everyone is being. we note there are still bears. i'm still looking at bank of america with the year end target of 3800. we were approaching 4500 now. we could hit it within the coming days judging by the price action we have seen. where does that 700 points of difference come from? tom: these are huge. i would take it back to real yield. within the literature people are looking at the real yield of -1.03% in saying what is the impact on our financial and nonfinancial lives if the real yield goes negative, do we have
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a clue? lisa: a lot of people think it will be very significant. there is a belief that yields rp and by fed participation, by the wealth effect, by overseas buying. if there is a question about that, how much does that rejigger the landscape? we will speak to someone who is not a bear, deborah cunningham, who perhaps can talk about the consequences of some of the negative yields and the effect on money markets. tom: absolutely. the last ferro great question come april of 2017. that is news we can use. this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the british admit it is a long shot, but to date they in the leaders of the other g7 nations
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will try to talk president biden into leaving u.s. troops in afghanistan past the august 31 deadline. the u.k. defense secretary says the security risks go up as the deadline grows nearer. nancy pelosi and a group of moderate democrats resume talks on how to advance president biden's agenda. hours of negotiations failed to break the stalemate. those want to hold off passing a $550 billion infrastructure bill -- at least 10 democrats say they want to vote on the infrastructure bill now. a special house committee investigating the capitol riot is seeking phone text and other communication records, including some from members of congress. the pinna will not say hughes records are being sought. republicans have denounced the investigation as politically driven. the stage is set for a power
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shift in europe's biggest economy. the social democrats have overtaken chancellor angela merkel's conservative block in a poll for next month's election. bloomberg subscribers can follow our election coverage now with a discussion with the sc leader. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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debt ceiling is hopefully resolved in the early fall in the fed announces a taper we think those factors can take us gradually higher. we think we can get to 1.70 and above later this year. tom: we just mentioned the bullish tone we are seeing from so many. doug, thanks for listening and watching. he says they are wrong, they are wrong, they are wrong. we digress. we each have our story of apple. i have too many to waste your time with. kailey leinz and i go to barry ritholtz for one story on apple on this anniversary of steve jobs walking away from the company grievously ill. barry, what is your best apple story? barry: i was a big mac fan for a
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long time and i got a look at this newfangled ipod and i think this is the new sony walkman. i want to say apple was $15, with $13 in cash. my whole firm bought a ton of it. i held onto it and made fun of the guys who sold it when it was up five dollars. i sold it it was a triple and i'm like look i tripled my money. it never looked back. the lesson is the trend is your friend. when something is working out do not take the money off the table too soon. tom: and the sea of 83 exams, there is nothing on taste -- describe how alone the jobs success is, or does taste and aesthetic matter in securities research? barry: it does, but is everybody
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focuses on steve jobs, he is not the guy who wrote the software, he is not the guy who came up with a lot of the design. he is not the guy who took care of the logistics. that was a kid named tim cook. this was a massively successful company with rock stars everywhere you look. the hyperfocus on steve jobs was fun, but it hid the brilliance beneath the top. i recall running the column, wall street still does not understand apple. almost 20 years later, wall street still does not understand apple. think back 20 years when the apple stores were introduced. there was the 20 year anniversary earlier this year. i love the article that says this is the dumbest idea in business. it is the most successful retail outlet in the world. kailey: steve jobs was a product
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guy, delivering on tangible products. the iphone is still its biggest robert -- still its biggest driver but it is becoming a services company. you have to think about it in a different way? barry: yep to think about that in terms of the entire ecosystem. i am talking at you on a mac, i have my iphone, i'm not a big fan of the eye but, they do not -- of the ibud, they do not fit my year well, but i have beats wireless, which apple also owns. think about the app store. if that was a standalone company, it would be bigger than 80% of the s&p 500. they have music, they have television. they are end to end and i continue to be shocked. the biggest american publicly traded company, still misunderstood by analysts.
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it is amazing. tom: you have done this in your book and your writings. i've enjoyed buys where i sold and should have hold. what is the mental framework to not sell? barry: when you're younger and broker you start looking at traits that are working out. if i sell this year, i can buy a new car, and if this goes further that is a down payment on a house. that sort of mixing the real world and investment portfolios, thinking about what it means in the real world, that is a problem a lot of young investors run into. i told the story many times that mid to late 1990's i have vivid recollections of investors who have written through the 1970's and enjoyed the 1980's and 1990's saying i will take a little bit off the table for my
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portfolio and by the vacation property. that is very different when you're rotating from one asset to another then starting to think about your individual holdings. ps, the crypto bros love to do this. 40,000 on bitcoin. now it is $50,000. the question becomes is this a trading vehicle or something you're using to change your lifestyle, to jump on that treadmill. not the best idea. kailey: as you are looking to take risk off the table, what would be a reason for doing self? barry: historically, investor behavior is always the biggest risk. i have written, starting in july, and i think the street has moved in this direction, that the anti-vaxxers and having 30% of the american population
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eligible for a vaccine refusing to take one potentially puts us at risk for an echo of 2020, not a full lockdown, but an ongoing drag. i think the fda approval yesterday might help that situation a little bit. we have also seen corporate america leadership step up. i am not a big new york post reader but there is a very amusing story about wall street mocking the anti-vaxxers members of their own. if you work on wall street and you're not vaccinated, expect to be humiliated and not invited back to the office. tom: we greatly appreciate it. barry ritholtz, thank you so much. it is time for a bloomberg surveillance moment of silence for mr. and mrs. lainz. the rumor is they will survive the weekend. kailey: everybody is doing
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great. we are so excited and so ready. tom: i did not ask about you. i asked about your parents. kailey: they are good. tom: there was deep planning into this. was this put together in 30 days or was this one of the six-year extravaganzas? kailey: one year in the making which is short in wedding terms. tom: are you doing the grantor of europe? kailey: i will be back next wednesday. tom: why are you coming back? kailey, thank you so much for your support on "bloomberg surveillance." jon ferro away. we wish you -- my thoughts to her parents. this was a rumor that got out on twitter. zach brown is not playing the
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viewers worldwide, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with the big issue, another vaccine breakthrough providing a shot in the arm for market. >> the fda are proving that pfizer vaccine is enormously important. >> the pfizer approval is good news. >> it is not a negative. >> encourage people to get vaccinated. >> we see a new breath or a new gust of wind in the sales of this market. >> more people would get vaccinated and less people get sick and that helps the economy move forward. >>
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