tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 25, 2021 6:00am-7:01am EDT
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>> we think earnings growth will drive markets higher next year. >> i think the market is telling you we are closer to disinflation than inflation. >> this is going to measure twice and cut once. >> the fed starts to taper in november, maybe december. either way they are tapering. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. what an interesting august it is . thrilled to have you on radio and television. jonathan ferro is out. i have a photo opportunity of ferro. he is somewhere warm and beautiful and lovely, with palm trees. taylor riggs joins us. taylor, good morning. my deepest sympathies. taylor: thank you for having me. tom: let's get right to it.
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if you look at the standard deviations, of this equity market, two days in a row, we break out. lisa: a jump condition and production as analysts trying to increase all of their projections. the interesting thing to me is the yawning gap between some of the predictions. a 27% differential between the bears and the bulls for s&p protections. -- s&p projections. to give you a sense of how much uncertainty there is on wall street. tom: normally abramowitz wouldn't do that, but she does it for taylor riggs. taylor, how do you link the bar markets -- link the bond markets with the great bull market? taylor: i keep hearing calls that the yields have to go higher and then you have auctions like the 10 year option and it seemed like there is no alternative, not only when you talk about the equity market but them on market as well.
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it is foreign buyers as well that are keeping these yields low. yields feel pretty anchored despite the calls of yields to climb higher. tom: i'm looking forward to that. lisa abramowicz, the conundrum, we are about to get to a 1.310 year yield. explain what is the significance of going from 1.12 almost to 1.30? lisa: this is one of the biggest points of uncertainty. it matters because the direction is higher. higher yields matters to everything from equity valuation to borrowing costs and individuals. the question is, let's say there is tapering. what is the response in markets? to the go up or down because we get a lower growth expectation going forward?
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the disparities of opinions on wall street are all over the map. tom: lisa in the timeout chair. that was a four syllable word, existential. lisa: we do existential thursday and friday and now bringing it to wednesday. tom: that is a branded product with sales and endorsements. futures up three, dow futures up 17. these are fractional moves. the trend is your friend. we mentioned the yield, 1.30. a huge deal. oil, $71 brent crude. that is the surprise of august. euro, 1.17. lisa abramowicz, is it pelosi? lisa: we could talk pelosi. we will just note that with
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crude, two days of the biggest gains since november. in the swamp of economic data, we have durable goods orders, expecting to get the 14th increase out of 15. the idea of ongoing momentum and demand from companies. 12:00 p.m. on bloomberg television. william flynn will be speaking. how much will he talk about nancy pelosi, the infrastructure bill and the resolution that was passed yesterday. to be clear, this is resolution. it does not give us more details and it is not a bill. how close does this get to being passed and how much is flynn in contact with people in congress to get something passed that he things will benefit his infrastructure and his network? i am really interested in this. president biden is going to rule out a number -- roll out number of cybersecurity steps.
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what are these outlines? how much do you view cybersecurity as the new front and build on that versus some of the other terrorist rats, especially with the backdrop of afghanistan? tom: are these guys going to be in washington or is it going to be a zoom meeting? lisa: i will have to check that. tom: everybody's going to ask jesse about the amazon stock performance. lisa: i'm sure that is president biden's first question. tom: claims tomorrow really getting my attention as well. lots to talk about with very good interesting guests. thank you julie norman from ucl london for being on yesterday. we will go to washington on that in a bit. right now, we start strong with julia coronado. her calls coming out of the financial crisis were absolutely extraordinary. she was way out front on the glide path of gdp to an
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underperformance in 2008 and 2009. thank you so much for joining us. let's do gdp before we do powell. do we underestimate the glide path to a lower level on this boom economy? are we setting ourselves up for a shock of lower potential gdp and growth? julia: i think that we still have reasons for optimism. the fiscal developments were just discussing suggest fiscal policy, even though a 10 year infrastructure package is fundamentally different from a gigantic cash stimulus, it is still a tailwind for growth, and one that will be supported for a long time. that is a direct contrast to the years after the great recession when fiscal policy went from supportive to restrictive very quickly and stayed restrictive for years. that was a headwind the fed had to battle in terms of supporting
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the economy and getting back to full employment. we are gliding down, moving to a new phase of the recovery. there is still reason that we see it in earnings, in the labor market, the baton passing from the stimulus to a self reinforcing growth in the labor market. there are reasons for optimism even though the run rate is going to be quite a bit lower. taylor: what is the direct economic ramification? should they start tapering? julia: i think the ramifications are very moderate, and that is the intention. they're going to start tapering in november. we are going to get signaling all along the way this week, at the september meeting and then the plans will be unveiled in november or december, depending on the pole that the delta variant takes. they are going to go slow -- on the toll that the delta variant
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takes. they're going to be slow and very methodical. there should not be as much of a shock to markets. taylor: if it doesn't have that big of an impact, why continue to buy these bonds, even if there is this uncertainty out there and all these other factors? we are still looking at a lot of accommodation. it is not necessarily tighter policy, just less accommodation. if there are not bigger -- from of occasions, why double down on the policy that is not necessary at this moment? julia: one of the reasons it is not going to have a big impact is because they are going to go slow. if they ripped off the band-aid and just sort of stopped from one day to the next or quickly backed away, then it would matter. we would see a lot more volatility and uncertainty about the future. the fact that the fed is going to peel back that accommodation very slowly is the reason it
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doesn't matter. hold new reactions, they're going to air on the side of more is less and we are going to make sure the economy is on a self-sustaining course before accommodation, before they move to a neutral stance, let alone a restrictive one. i think the fact that they are going so slowly is the reason it doesn't matter and the counterfactual of going a lot faster, just stopping would mean that transition would be much bumpier. lisa: does a taper between nbs and treasuries make sense or does it help cool a housing market that has been ever so strong? julia: i tend to side with the consensus of the leadership at the fomc which is that money is fungible. they are not targeting assets, one asset class over another. it's about the water support that they are providing to
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financial conditions. i don't think it makes sense to try to target the housing market by focusing on a taper. i think they are going to go even and there will be gradual reduction support for all markets including mortgages and treasuries. tom: that is wonderful. a 14-year-old informed me last night that money is fungible. julia coronado, with us. this coming up on jackson hole. she is a macro policy perspective. how fungible is the abramowicz house right now? julia: it is not a coincidence that you're talking about amazon stocks and fungibility of money to a 14-year-old. the back-to-school trend, they are getting there, and we are getting more and more studies about the children and the
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potential ramifications of the delta variant? tom: we are going to have our pandemic coverage here but part of it here, taylor riggs is nationwide. we will see a lot of action. i noticed ohio state stepping up last night. taylor: a lot of outrage in florida as you think about the mask mandate, something we will be talking about later, as we go down into some of the politics but it really does come back to these equity markets. get the kids in school, get the parents to work, and then maybe things will be ok. tom: everything will be wonderful, yes it will be. stay with us. interesting august week. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the "first word news" i am ritika gupta. the house has adopted that $3.5 trillion resolution.
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the agreement puts to rest a rift between progressive and conservative democrats. how speaker pelosi was able to broker a deal that would put forward a bipartisan info structure built by the end of next month. senate democrats putting forward a policy that would penalize companies removing profits aboard. the finance committee chair will outline a tech system for multinational corporations. democrats say companies have been able to move profits and jobs outside the u.s. president biden is sticking to his plan of removing all u.s. troops from afghanistan by august 31 but he has ordered his national security team to come up with contingency plans if he decides a delay is necessary. he says completing the u.s. mission by the deadline depends on the taliban continuing to cooperate and allowing access to
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the airport for those the u.s. is evacuating. a new study from the u.k. supports the concept of booster shots for honorable people. the u.s. and other countries have begun rolling out third shots for people with immune systems that have been weakened. securities and exchange commission or gary gensler is warning hundreds of chinese companies in the u.s. to -- more scrutiny or get kicked out. a three year deadline requires chinese firms to submit inspections of their financial risks. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the sooner we can finish, the better. each day of operations brings added risk to our troops, but the completion of august 31 depends on the taliban continuing to cooperate. tom: the president of the united states striving for the conversation yesterday, as he manages the message. -- a wonderful conversation on germany. merkel now with the headline on the allied developments in afghanistan. an exceptionally difficult wednesday. the images are horrible but overnight, there was legislation of sorts in washington. greg hill d.a. -- annmarie hordern, the speaker of the house is 81.
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we heard yesterday that she is complete focused on her legacy at the expense of the democratic majority. that you begin to lose the majority of the house last night? annmarie: she pulled a maneuver to get through and to acquiesce both sides of her party, the progressives and the moderates. we should note this isn't legislation. she moved forward a rule which means it is go time for that reconciliation process, which already we saw today, the senate finance committee putting up what their terms might look like, in terms of higher taxes, but she was able to park at the bipartisan infrastructure in a nod to the moderates for september 27. in the end, she was able to make it work for everyone in her party, and that is her job. tom: i look at the next step not only for the speaker but for the moderates. we will talk to greg about this but frame out where the moderates are now. in the senate, there is no --
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did the moderates capitulate last night? annmarie: i would not say capitulate. at the end of the day, they came under immense pressure from the white house. white house aides were put under a lot of pressure for democratic lawmakers to get on board with a plan. they have a firm date now, september 27. speaker pelosi said she was committed to passing bipartisan infrastructure by that date. it is a gamble for pelosi in the sense that if she is willing to pass partisan infrastructure by september 27, the progressive say they will tank that unless they get the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. it basically leaves congress a month to get reconciliation done in the senate. this is where things will get tricky because right now, the budget resolution is that you can have all of these committees start to put in details, taxing and spending legislation, but
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you don't even know if it is going to be $3.5 trillion. september, when they start going into the details, is going to be a showdown. >> we are getting some details about the tax plan that are indicative of the power the centrists have. we get a sense that the tax plan boosts penalties of companies sending profits abroad. it is co-authored by senators including mark warner of virginia, a classic moderate. what can we glean from the fact that they seem to be driving the boat when it comes to crafting the details? annmarie: i would say at the moment this is very high-level because in this draft legislation, they want the public as well and they want input by early september. there is no actual tax rates included and we know the bite in the administration is looking at something as high as 28%. for joe manchin, that is way too high. until we see what the actual rates will be, we will know exactly how aggressive they are going to be on the tax hikes for
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corporations. it does show they're going to go after companies in terms of making this money abroad and making sure they are not usurping the irs. >> would passing the resolute -- was passing the resolution enough to move forward the physical info structure plan that has bipartisan support? annmarie: it was, and the sense that they got to go on the resolution so they can -- that is a nod to the progressives and the whole democratic party to go finish the rest of the president's economic agenda. they have a firm date. the speaker has promised to bring up bipartisan infrastructure by september 27. if we go past that date, this would definitely be -- you would hear -- there would be a lot of arguments in the moderates about why they decide in the end to go along with this plan. they have a firm date to pass that and it is before october.
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taylor: i asked you this question last night and i will ask again. is anyone thinking about how to pay for this? is anyone care? -- does anyone care? annmarie: tax hikes. the bipartisan infrastructure, they already have the eyes dotted and the tees crossed. we have a little bit of what that could mean this morning with draft legislation from the senate finance committee but your question is just the perennial question of exactly how much taxes are going to get, and will it reach the 3.5 trillion dollars and will the moderates sign off on it? taylor: biden is holding a cybersecurity summit with tech giants today. federal spending on cybersecurity is going to be a huge tailwind for some of these companies.
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what do you want to hear from this? annmarie: it is not just tech companies. jamie dimon and brian monahan and a number of energy companies as well. it is on the heels of huge cyber issues in the united states. in may, there was colonial pipeline, last year there was the russian hack of solar wind. this group is going to look for the technology the u.s. needs and the infrastructure when it comes to cyber but also some five hundred thousand vacancies when it comes to the cybersecurity industry and how do you train these people and make sure the workforce is moving in that direction? i want to see what deliverables this group comes out with. >> is this in person or virtual? annmarie: many are going to be in person. i'll be there, trying to see who is willing to give us a comment. tom: i am in all of this -- i am in awe of this. i guess it is a good distraction
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from the real issues in afghanistan and legislation. annmarie: the president is going to have a briefing this morning on afghanistan but i agree with you, tom. i think for the administration, anything to kind of take the public eye off of afghanistan is welcome. tom: the effort at least. who says it will be successful? annmarie, what an insane august. lisa, i know cybersecurity is a new idea and they will public do esg with afghanistan and the legislation going on. you've been great on the two-part america. it is just not in focus for so many people. lisa: i would agree it is not in focus but especially with the afghanistan issue, what does terrorism mean in 2021? how much are they going to talk about cyber terrorism? this is something that is important as a lot of people gear up for potential threats on an international front. tom: the markets, just a
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tom: bloomberg surveillance. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jonathan ferro is off on sabbatical. look for a drawdown meditation last -- next year. taylor riggs in for jon today. futures up. this is a really important conversation right now. with a lot of experience in really -- and really important, a cross-section of academics, -- writes a memo this week for taylor riggs. discuss. get the --
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why is it not a valentino market? >> i have plenty of shoes in my closet. tom: they love their foreign shoes. bring that over to the world of --. help me out. what do you mean about the extravagance of luxury french shoes? ? >> i'm suggesting in my piece that i wrote last week that you like good quality stocks these days. that is the christian louboutin shoe. when i am here doing a virtual call with you, i put my slippers on but those are my backup shoes. you should buy good quality growth and value, with a neutral
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regime the last couple of months. we now may be at a new point. tom: the gloom crew says that is going to end. what do they get wrong? federative hermes has been sustained. what do they get wrong about high quality? linda: the high quality sock she would go to when you -- high quality stocks you would go to, the stock market is making brand-new record highs but people have been using last year and then again this year, this big mega cap tech stock as the consensus play. those would be your christian louboutin type shoes in the analogy. we at federated hermes have been bullish, really ever sense the
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fed a year and a half ago said in the name of this pandemic, we will by high-yield corporate bonds if we have to, to have your back. it was at that moment that i and -- i as someone who was as shellshocked as anybody else said it was dangerous to be a bear. i said that ever since that time and here we are, making burkett -- making brand-new record-breaking highs. >> enter the danger zone as we talk about the potential danger of being bearish at a time of such dynamism in the market. there is also a question david stubbs outlined on bloomberg surveillance a couple weeks ago, talking about a positivity shock stemming from the big tech world, the idea that there is an increase in productivity stemming from some of the innovation, and that this is an underpriced feature in the economy.
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can you talk about how that translates into your market call? linda: that is a very interesting comment. technology has advanced much more quickly through the pandemic. for years now, technological advancements have made their way through all the sectors of the stock market. all sectors. energy sector being the one that has been fusing, most advancements made by technology companies. they have record profit margins. there is so much to worry about these days but the stock market is all about corporate earnings. we've had record profit margins. we were there at the end of 2019 before we went into the pandemic but now, record profit margins has every thing to do with the productivity that comes from to the logical advancements across the entire economy. that helps to power earnings. for five consecutive quarters
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now, corporate profits have exceeded analyst expectations. they can't get bullish enough. we think the powerful growth, that continues on with these advancements we've talked about and it will continue into next year, and it is still too early to get bearish on the markets. taylor: when you get into a meeting with all of the folio managers at federated hermes, with such a yawning gap between the bulls and the bears, what is your guidepost? i hear what you are saying with respect to potentially a seachange but we are also dealing with the stimulus checks in september. will kids go back to school? the levels of uncertainty are tremendous. what do you guys discuss? how do you look at this? linda: these are what you would call the wildcards as to how these things play out, but you have to stand back and look at the forest for the trees.
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we've been living with the pandemic for well over a year and we have our shots. we have this delta variant that came through and hit the south very hard. that was the least vaccinated group. we get enough waves of this where we see it peeking in the south and those who are worried about going indoors in the north, i saw a statistic that said 70% of people over 50 years old, the ones most at risk have had both shots -- have not had both shots. 80% have had at least one shot. the booster is coming right along. rolloff checks because of what we have seen is that those states that refuse the extra checks saw their unemployment rates go down. get people back to work. all of those help-wanted signs out there are looking for help. what do you have? record corporate profits, record
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earnings estimates. the price-to-earnings multiple is 21 times, reasonably high but not versus inflation or a year ago. step back and look at the forest for the trees. the set is excellent. >> there were also no bears in the bond market either, not when you talk about a strong tens auction last week, a strong twos yesterday. why aren't there more bearers in the bond market? linda: if you had a bond mandate -- the last number i saw was $18 trillion worth of local sovereign debt. as low as our yields are, and i heard your early discussion this morning about how the 10 year bond yield has risen by 1.12, ridiculously low numbers. you take what you can get.
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still, people, who has all the money out there? it is people 50 plus, the aging baby boomers. they are nervous nelly's. we just came off of three weeks straight where retail investors have sold stocks. there is since the end of the global financial crisis, money has gone into bonds and on stocks. we don't have euphoria. i think one day we will look back at just a fantastic opportunity. >> are we anywhere near a level on interest rates where that discount rate starts to pressure equities? linda: if you are still in the history, you are looking for inflation around for years -- around 4% and we are nowhere near that and we have a
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reasonably slack yield curve. i think it is just under 2% between the 10 and the two year bond yield, when the fed would start raising rates. all across the curve, just extreme at lowe's. tom: linda, you have an exceptional pallet of academics. let me ask you the key question, and this goes to folks, the heritage and federated going back years. are we over diversified? on a mathematical basis, are we over diversified today? do we own too many things? linda: are you referring to in the financial? tom: 401k, portfolio, 6040 split. i have to have this, target this, target that? are we over diversifying our
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potential gains? linda: i don't think that we are over diversified. in fact, i think it is more of a generational thing. i think the older we get, the more conservatively positioned -- that 6040 idea is something we grew up with over many decades and it just doesn't work anymore. there is no alternative. bonds are not doing their job. i might argue we are moving in the other direction, where stocks are the only thing and met it -- and mega cap stocks in particular. tom: this has been wonderful. linda duessel with federated hermes. lisa, just by chance, i went over to christian louboutin and
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looked at the new arrivals. the macadamia flat boots, they say taylor riggs. lisa: my favorite part of this, taylor is that he doesn't even try to peg me. taylor: i'm a little more classy than the shoes you picked out for me but i like where your head is at. tom: this speaks to the supply issues right now. for the haves in america right now, you go to the stores and there is nothing there. lisa: it is not just the highest class of items, the most luxury of goods across the board. i will say sports back open over in china -- ports back open over in china. tom: stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the "first word news," i am ritika gupta.
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president biden has told groups to get ready to resettle as many as 50,000 afghans. the program will target afghans considered to be at risk under a tele-band led government. the stage is set for the house to take a final vote on the $550 billion bipartisan for schechter bill -- bipartisan infrastructure bill. they adopted president biden's $3.5 trillion budget resolution and that cleared the vote for the info search ability end of next month. in vietnam, vice president kamala harris -- urged countries in southeast asia to apply more pressure to beijing. she also said the u.s. ones to upgrade its real -- upgrade its relationship with vietnam to a 32 partnership. a divided supreme court has rejected president biden on a controversial immigration issue.
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they cleared the way to requiring asylum-seekers to wait in mexico. in japan, the prime minister will expand the state of emergency to cover about 70% of the population. the delta variant search has led to a record number of cases and it is putting strain on the medical systems. they will take a vote next month. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪
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back-to-school covid-19 testing program to make testing for students and staff widely available and convenient. i'm also immediately directing the department of health to institute universal masking for anyone entering our schools. tom: someone we know exceptionally well. kathy hochul is the governor of new york. she is the one we spoke to in the heat of the new york city pandemic and she had some tangible courage out there when it was really dangerous. we is thrilled that she is governor and we are -- lisa, she has been distracted the last couple of days. lisa: you think? obviously carrying the baton in new york city. tom: the governor's interest -- is interested in -- johnson & johnson, not moderna or pfizer,
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saying the booster vaccine dose raises the covid fighting antibodies. that is part of the ongoing debate. lisa that is a wonderful entree to this good guest. lisa: especially given the international focus of public health, the idea of the booster, how we get that out when it is so difficult to just get the vaccine in arms to begin with. our guest with incredible experience, transatlantic upbringing, bringing us the sense from johns hopkins, associate professor of emergency medicine. as we focus on boosters and the efficacy and the importance of bolstering the response in our bodies to the delta variant and others, how problematic is it that we still do not have infrastructure to quickly and easily get vaccines in people's arms internationally? >> it is problematic because in many countries less than 10% of individuals have received their first dose of vaccines.
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the challenge with boosters is knowing who you have already vaccinated and how do you administer a second dose of vaccination? it requires a lot of micro-planning, a lot of money and there are a lot of considerations. how do we scale up implementation of vaccines? what is worrying to many of us is that by the time we need the booster, the projector is not going to be there -- the infra-structure is not going to be there. lisa: there is wide disagreement on whether we have seen the worst in terms of the upsurge in cases. where do you fall on that? >> the curve is continuing to go up which is worrying but what is making meaning everest today is that there is this accompanying surge in deaths as well. over the last week, what i have been seeing on social media as a physician is people calling from
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florida to baltimore, saying do you have a bed? there has been an outstripping of resources welcome -- while cases continue to soar. the need is greater than the resources you have and that is where things go awry. tom: how do you respond when you see ohio state will demand vaccination to a grizzled -- how do you respond when you see an institution, chevron oil or ohio state university say we've had enough? dr. hansoti: i think historically, back to influenza and other viruses, to go into schools, we demand that our children are vaccinated. tom: you nailed it. dr. hansoti, i lived through
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polio with parents crying. we had diphtheria. how did we get here now? why isn't this like influenza and the others? dr. hansoti: i think there are just concerns about what it meant to be eua approved. that is new language to many individuals. now that we have full fda approval, we can use the same safe policies we had with influenza. if i work at johns hopkins hospital, i have to have proof of vaccination and that complete makes sense. >> does the full fda approval change anything on the margins against those who may have been hesitant? dr. hansoti:. completely. there is an estimation -- dr. hansoti: completely. there is an estimation that about -- full fda approval, we can rest assured and reassure those individuals that this is the same as any other vaccine. this isn't something new,
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something it is risky. this has the same data and the same level of approval as all the other treatments that they would take normally. >> what work is being done to get children vaccinated? tom brings up polio and likens us back a couple decades or so. what are the efforts on that front. dr. hansoti: the clinical trials, the data is being combed through. we are expecting eua approval any day now. pediatricians already have infrastructure to be able to vaccinate children quickly and effectively. i think it is going to be very simple to layer on vaccinations for children. we have already seen children ages 12 to 16, that the capacity was there. >> dr. hansoti, to put a bow on the conversation around vaccination, you talked about the increase in death rate and i'm wondering if the research is showing a higher vera lentz of
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the delta -- virulence of the delta variant even though there is greater immunity in the general population. dr. hansoti: this data is very tricky. the best data comes from a scottish study but it puts the alpha virus against the delta virus and they found that individuals did need increased hospitalization, younger individuals were more likely, including children. they did not show deaths. i think delta is likely to give you more complications, more likely to need oxygen, but whether you are more likely to die is unclear. tom: dr. hansoti, with johns hopkins university. much more on this global pandemic as well. let's do a data check. dow futures up 15. the vicks quiet over the last 48 hours.
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the yield, there it is, 1.3019. that speaks volumes. lisa: it talks about how even though we have optimism, we have seen peak delta fears and the optimism has only gotten treasury yields up to 1.3%. how do we get back up to 2%? tom: the real yield as well. taylor riggs, -1.2%. i'm sorry, it is not a lesser negative number. taylor: you could argue it has come up from the -1.20 just two to three weeks ago. it speaks to the pessimism in the markets. what does the 1.30 tell us? negative real yields everywhere in japan. 1.30 in the u.s. looks good. tom: what i would go to as well as the equity markets, speaking on the lowers.
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>> to be extended as we continue to deal with covid. >> earnings broke not valuation also drive markets higher next year. >> i think the market is telling you that we are closer to disinflation than inflation. >> this is a fed that's going to take its time. it's going to measure twice and cut once. >> the fed starts to taper in november, maybe december. either way they are tapering. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we welcome all of you on radio and television. another hour of bloomberg surveillance. thanks for the responses on twitter. by email. by carrier prince george's pidgeon. we appreciate it. ferro love. taylor rigs in to save the day. i look at where we are and i go back to all the
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