>> monetary policy is getting more rational and the economy is solid and earnings growth is likely to remain strong. >> the passive -- the path of least resistance continues to be higher. >> the big problem, if we don't start tapering if it is in october, november, or december, is the pressure of inflation. >> i would watch the debt ceiling. i think you have to fear the debt ceiling. september will be a white knuckle event. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. taylor riggs darkens the door because jonathan ferro is off. we thank her for joining on a day on jackson hole and the speech of the federal reserve system to the known world. lisa, sorry it is not normal given where we are and where rates are.

everyone will tune in at 10:00 a.m. lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond geyser, is taper or rates. which are you focused on? lisa: i'm focus on what the reaction is in markets to any indication of what fed chair jay powell would like to see in the tapering.

we can say they will probably taper at some point this year but what we can say is what the reaction will be in bond markets. the last time we got a hawkish tilt in the language or perception of that's, we sell rates go down on the long end. does any taper talk lead to higher rates this time around. that is what i'm going to be watching. tom: what's interesting is the guesstimates for next year, whether it is the fed, our michael mckee, or others could use with a great dispersion of 2022 gdp from 22% out to the sixth level, taylor. that is the uncertainty we are focused on. taylor: if you want to talk about dispersion, 1000 point difference between a low estimate at high estimate for the s&p 500. we migrate northward and i believe it is ubs at 5000 for next year year end. that speaks to the -- next year

to year end. that speaks to me not only the equity uncertainty of yesterday. tom: the equity uncertainty is there and the calendar marches on into q3. it shakes up the mystery of earnings and revenue growth. if anything, it is more tangible than 90 days ago. taylor: all of the analysts we have spoken with yesterday say the fundamentals are very strong. do not let a 10 year at 1.35 full you. that is overseas buying and technicals are strong -- fool your. that is overseas buying and technicals are strong. that is the and the p. tom: that you. -- the e and the p. tom: the e and the p. out of afghanistan, we will see how that unfolds through the morning. the yield, 1.3536. i will call it quiet and.

-- quiet end. yields have done nothing. it crude, $72 per barrel. the dollar is at the beach as well. lisa, at the wall, what do you got? lisa: [laughter] the dollar is at the beach pretty much sums up market for the past couple days. to add onto what you are talking about with markets, crude posting its best week going back to october. this highlights the shift in sentiment under the surface here that people are getting less concerned about the delta variants prolonging the pandemic indefinitely. today, i hear there is an event happening in four hours that we have been expecting someone, jay powell, will be speaking. 10 a clock a.m., he is outlining his philosophy and tends to make news on the jackson hole symposium speeches. we are looking for some shift in the framework of thinking. perhaps the balance of risks with inflation and acting too

soon. this is the conference about recovery in an equal economy. how much will he talk about monetary policy with respect to that? 8:30 a.m., personal income and spending data. i am curious about the spending data. how much has it slowed as a result of the delta variant? how much do we see a softer tone to the third order? at 10:00 a.m., university of michigan sentiment survey. the last one was a disaster. sentiment fell out of bed and it was a large part because of the inflationary push in consumer products. it was also because of the delta variant and people concerned there. do we see a reprieve from that market. if not, how much does that color the market? that may be the most interesting data point of the day. tom: it will be interesting to see and we will get there with michael mckee and important conversations. i'm looking forward to mr. bostic of atlanta to see how he answers mike mckee's rude questions. it is wonderful to start

this historic day strong and we do it with someone that knows her economics. not the university of chicago, not supply and demand of the shelling cross but the fish market of massachusetts. james karen grew up in the sweat of one of the most mercantile -- i know it well -- mercantile towns and villages of america and joins us off of the whaling ship at morgan stanley this morning. it is supply and demand, jim. it is price up in price down, yield up and deal down. what are bonds going to do? >> that is the key question and i agree with lisa that it is all about rates. i think it is time for math. i think we have to reverse engineer this in order to understand what is going to happen today. tom: please. james: when we think about the fed's funds rate and the 10 year yield, the 10 year yield is the overnight interest rate reinvested every night for 10 years. those two should be the mathematical equipment.

taking that as a starting point, we have to look at where we expect the value for fed's funds to be, when the fed starts hiking rates, and at the point when they are done hiking rates. the fed tells us that is 2.5% at this point. if we believe the fed, if the fed funds rate gets to 2%, and we take that back to our fair value models, that will tell us today fair value for the treasury is 1.7%. that is where 10 year yields should be today if you believe the fund rate. the question the market is having is, if the fed starts a tapering process too soon and becomes too aggressive and may be starts to hike rates too much too soon, then the economy will not grow as fast in the fed will not be able to hike rates enough to get to its expected terminal target of 2.5% policy rates in the future by say the end of 2025. that might only get us to a 2%

terminal rates. what that tells us is a fair value for the 10 year treasury, if that is the case, if the fed hikes race too soon, is closer to 1.3%. if the fed wades and delays the taper, it allows there to be more stimulus in the economy, then tenured -- 10-year treasury yield could go to 2% by the end of this year. the whole key here is -- and this is what is counterintuitive -- the earlier the fed tapers and more aggressive they are in tapering, 10-year treasury yield's probably will not rise that much. lisa: will hold on the second. i want to underscore this. this, to me, is one of the key debates on wall street right now. what is the reaction in bonds to any taper announcements. you are saying they will go lower unless the taper is prolonged, unless there is a much slower pace. do you expect that to be the case, given that we hear an

increasing number of members voting or non-talking about the necessity to start with strong stimulus? jim: i do, because of actively what we have to recognize is we have to close the output gap quickly at this point. if we do not get enough growth in the future -- so you mentioned earlier on in the show, there is a broad range of gdp growth forecasts for 2022. if we are at the low end of the gdp forecast, we are not going to get enough economic activity for the fed to continue. what the market is arguing -- this has been the case since the june fomc -- if the fed starts a tapering process too soon and it is too aggressive, they will not be able to hike rates enough in the future, and that will influence the level of 10-year gilts today. it is not -- yields today. it is not that yields don't rise today if the fed is hockessin on things, share. it just will not rise that much

-- hawkish on things, sure. it will not rise that much. if the fed allows for this generation of growth, inflation, what have you, the 10 year yield term premium will be built into the curve and that will allow 10 year yields to rise more. it is very counterintuitive. a lot of take -- not a taper tantrum in any way. the more dovish the fed is, the more likely rates -- 10 year yields move higher. tom: we will have to leave it there but i want to know, we are watching auction prices in new bedford like you did as a kid. july was a scandal. $30.80 a pound on scallops. jim caron, thank you so much of morgan stanley. quite good on both sides of the bond markets as well. lisa: what have you been doing this summer? lobster rolls, scallops? tom: i grew up on fish sticks. i grew up in the midwest where

fresh fish was a once a year occurrence. lisa: fish sticks and tank. -- tang. tom: unfortunately, that is true. [laughter] mike mckee has a great lineup of people to really add perspective on the challenges the chairman has. lisa: we have heard increasing drumbeat that the fed will taper quickly. yesterday, a representative of bridgewater talking about that. i wonder if that is lower yields ahead. tom: futures up 15. the vix, 17.77. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is telling

terrorists the u.s. will hunt them down. this is after a bombing outside of the kabul airport killed service members and dozens of others. islamic state claimed response ability for the tack. -- for the attack. protections for millions of people are ending as they fell behind on rent during the pandemic. the cdc lacks the authority to impose the eviction moratorium. president biden's advisors may recommend jerome powell be now minted for a second term as fed chair while the central bank vice chair is brain hard. reynard is a contender. progressive democrats do not like powell's record on regulation. china is taking steps that could throw at the ambition of tech firms that want to lift abroad. the government plans to ban companies with large amounts of

consumer data is from going public in the u.s.. the move could give beijing more control as the complex structure chinese tech companies used to sidestep investment. critics for apple say the company has too much power. it did so without agreeing to making a change to its policy. apple will pay $100 million in settlements to developers. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: for those who carried out this attack, as well

as anyone who wishes america harm know this, we will not forgive. we will not forget. we will hunt you down and make you pay. tom: the president of the united states in a most difficult thursday in america. let's get to it. emily wilkins joins us with number government. below the tomb of the unknown soldiers at arlington is section 60, on the plains, the field, the flatness before the pentagon. in section 60 is where they bury our brave from afghanistan and those from iraq. i'm sure the president will visit section 60. discuss what you learned yesterday about the mood on the hill, the mood at the white house. emily: president biden said when he initially started talking

about pulling out of afghanistan that what he did not want to do is he did not want to call another soldier's family who died in afghanistan and give them the bad news. now he will have to call 13 families. far more wounded and dozens and dozens of afghani's wounded as well yesterday. we are hearing from u.s. central command that there could be more of these attacks. this is the last thing president biden wanted to have happen here. the administration was banking on getting everyone out, on saying we evacuated, there were no deaths. now, we have ended this 20 year war and we will have to contend with the fact that at least u.s. soldiers died and maybe we will see. there's a chance american citizens -- they are in grave danger there. tom: the president has to get not so much beyond a 20 year war but get through the next 20 hours of his tenure. maybe to the sunday talk shows to stretch it out a little bit. what is the white house doing this morning in triage?

lisa: this is going to go way beyond the sunday talk shows. you saw biden yesterday step up with a message saying as the clip you just aired, they would be going after the people that had this bombing. at the u.s. will be attacking them and retaliating against them. the fact of the matter is, this will not go away after this weekend. democrats on the hill, people from his own party vowed to have hearings, getting to the bottom of this. i have spoken with republicans on the hill who say if they take a house in 2022, which is likely to happen, they want to have further investigations on this. this is something that could dodge biden for the rest of his presidency really. tom: there's also a question about -- lisa: there's also question about the taliban and how they are to some degree allowing islamic states to be engaged in afghanistan. do we have the latest on that? to me, that is highly unclear.

emily: there's a lot of concern about that. reports yesterday saying the u.s. handed a list to the taliban of americans that should be let into the airport. that raised a lot of concerns, especially on capitol hill. you are beginning to see rank-and-file republicans begin to call for president biden's impeachment. that is not something we see from republican leadership at this point. we heard yesterday from house republican leader kevin mccarthy saying congress did need to come back to washington, that they needed to be briefed, and they potentially needed to move to make sure troops are in afghanistan after that august 31 deadline. lisa: there is a political machination, sort of the politics of saying this is terrible and painted in a bad light. and then there's the military precision of trying to understand what went wrong, what was potentially on the shoulders of president biden in terms of not foreseeing how messy it could get. when you talk to former commander's, former military

heads, what do they say in terms of what went so wrong? emily: it seems like we are getting conflicting messages from military commanders. somewhere saying they set said always from the start that this was going to be a messy withdraw but then you have heard others say they thought this would be possible. the messaging you heard from president biden up to this is something like this was not going to happen, that the u.s. would have the withdraw under control. i think that is what is shaking confidence in biden's ability in washington dc and throughout the country. you see his approval ratings drop and i will have implications for what he will be able to do with the next three years of his presidency. taylor: we are relying on one terrorist group to protect us from the other terrorist group. general mckenzie spoke yesterday at 3:00 p.m. and we took it live on television. the taliban is supposed to provide a frontline of

screenings. somehow that suicide bomber got through and got to the american's second line of defense. we trust the taliban that they are not letting those bombers through? at this point, -- emily: at this point, it raises serious questions on if the u.s. can work with the taliban. you heard the taliban when asked about it turned back around and blame the u.s. saying this happened in the airport of the u.s. controlled portion of the controlled airport. the taliban was responsible for checkpoints previous of that. as i mentioned earlier, as you saw yesterday, there is concerns that there will be more of these attacks, that they are expected. yesterday, you did see the u.s. warned americans to stay away from the kabul airport because they had gotten intelligence about these attacks. you did see evacuation efforts continue after, but this is an

active threat and something we need to keep a close eye on for the next several days. taylor: are the approval ratings more than afghanistan? emily: we also believe they probably had something to do with the delta variant. remember, president biden really came out of the gate talking about attacking the covid-19 virus, helping the country get over that hump. for a while, it seemed like that was happening. we had mask mandates dropping, people vaccinated, there was a huge focus on shots in arms. now even if you are vaccinated in many places, you have to wear a mask again. that is something the administration is dealing with, rising numbers of unvaccinated people in hospitals, mask mandates coming back. there is certainly afghanistan and i think at this point you are seeing a lot of rocking this with getting this big domestic agenda through congress. tom: emily, thank you very much. we will have much more coverage of this through the morning and

the news for out of kabul today as well. -- news flow out of kabul today as well. we have so much coming up. benjamin hopkins will join us from george washington university. we will have another guest in the 7:00 hour as well. on jackson hole in all, i cannot remember a speech that was so anticipated. lisa: the idea someone is looking for the balance of when they might taper and frankly what ramifications that will have on marcus. i do not have a sense of that. there is a lot of disagreement with these asset purchases continuing to prop up valuations. tom: the ramifications of the market are important. also the ramifications of distraction. you have a surveillance cat and i'm thrilled to tell you bill the cat is wired up and awaiting chairman powell. look at this. it is high tech. the drain of electricity to get bill the cat fed before chairman

powell is absolutely extraordinary. lisa: if anyone is trying to follow this, don't worry, we don't necessarily follow this either. well done. tom: chairman powell and presidents and governors of fed with our michael mckee coming up. this is bloomberg. stay with us. bill, you too. ♪

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tom: "bloomberg surveillance," good morning everyone. the chairman's a speech at 10:00 a.m. in a moment, we have any important scholar on what we are observing in afghanistan. taylor riggs looks at the markets. taylor: yesterday after the bell, a big decline in some of the equity markets. today, we tried to get a ripple effect ended bounced upward. as some of the calm shakes through here, it is interesting that you did not see the unwind yesterday filter through in the markets as you have a steady, well-behaved 10 year yield at a 1.34. you taught me this 10 years ago, the minute the equities selloff, what are cross assets doing? you didn't see the swissie or the yen catch a bed. that is a sign we are seeing a

calmness in the markets. one thing where you do not see calm, take a look at shares of peloton. we did this after the closing bell yesterday. shares were up 15%. i hear there is a receipt meant of the financial balance sheet giving -- given an accounting error with inventory. you have to count the inventory correctly. tom: friday morning and i'm getting lectures on level two cfa. only taylor riggs can do that. and q, taylor riggs. appreciate that -- thank you taylor riggs. appreciate that. you can look at select courses from intimate david hopkins, shockingly definitive not so much on afghanistan but the sprawl of central asia. his book, anticipated the war that destroyed america, and we are thrilled the -- the professor can join us. you teach on asia thought as well which leads us back to the

horror of the end of world war ii. whether it is, because he or suicide bombing, how do we defend ourselves against such terror across asia? >> specifically looking at afghanistan and the past 24 hours, that is a complicated question. i have been watching and reporting about the continued threat it poses and how the u.s. military is trying to respond to that. that is part of the reason the biden administration has been so firm in deciding on a doubling down and tripling down on its decision to get out, and the best defense against out -- against that is do not be there at all. tom: in every expert that we speak to on the muslim world, they say it is not a big deal with the taliban. but isis is separate. how alone is isis or isis-k in

afghanistan at this moment? prof. hopkins: that is a great question and great observation as well. as you rightly point out, most scholars note the lack of sunni she violence in afghanistan. there are exceptions of that and there have been points in history where that has not been the case. especially if you compared to pakistan, that violence is widespread. it is notable. part of i.s.'s k -- isis-k's proclivity toward violence is in swarmed by the fact they largely come out of pakistan. in terms of how alone it were, isis-k, between 2015 and 2018 at that same time the

taliban was waging insurgency against the afghan government and american allies, it was also fighting a bargain isis-k, which the taliban essentially won. they eliminated i escape from afghanistan -- isk from afghanistan. lisa: it seems like there are different factions in the taliban. it is hard to talk about the taliban as a united front. how much is this a cohesive group against isis or isk versus a splintered entity that could foster some of this more terroristic sentiment in the nation? prof. hopkins: another great observation, lisa. that's one of the issues that needs to be underlined is it is in many ways a perilous moment for the taliban itself. our view inside of the taliban is rather limited, but it is

definitely wracked by -- definitely fragmented. in 1998, the taliban had taken missouri sharee in northern afghanistan, the last major urban center. a controlled 93% of the country and was waiting on foreign recognition. when that recognition did not calm, the pakistan, uae, and saudi, what we saw within the taliban at that point was a romar -- was a more radical faction. we could definitely see something similar in the days ahead. lisa: taking a step back, a lot of people say why do we care so much about this nation aside from a humanitarian point of view, aside from perhaps that we have been so involved and the history going back in 2001. is there a larger strategic place this nation holds in terms

of geopolitical relations that you are concerned about going forward as we see the de-evolution into disarray. prof. hopkins: americans often lee mistakenly think afghanistan is not in relationship with afghanistan, began in 2001. the united states had documented relations with afghanistan in the 19th century. it's amazing how foreign afghanistan remains in the american imaginary even though we have such a long history with it. in terms of the possible strategic value of afghanistan, afghanistan key asset has always been is location -- been its location. if you want to get to a place in asia, you have to go through afghanistan. that is why there is so much talk with withdrawal that

the chinese will step in. taylor: the belgian road initiative goes through pakistan and we hear $1 trillion of rare earth minerals in afghanistan. is china going to do what we could not? prof. hopkins: i think you will see a great deal of speculation about that. especially by more contemporary analysts. personally, i am skeptical of that. if we take the number of the $1 trillion mineral wealth in the country, we have to first acknowledge it is highly diffused around the country. there are few concentrations which make it economically feasible. secondly, the infrastructure to exploit it is not there. there are a couple examples of the chinese investing for instance in the copper mines. however, that is not a big economic driver as it were. i am actually personally

skeptical china will see much value with stepping into afghanistan at this point. the rate of return on investment , as has been demonstrated, is quite well. taylor: big picture, and i'm thinking maybe i need the near/immediate, does the taliban have an incentive to help us get out safely? prof. hopkins: yeah. the taliban wants us gone. it is wholly within their interests, which is why i think the taliban is as upsets with the events yesterday perhaps as we are. if you think of it from a rational actor point of view, the taliban's interest is to have the united states and allies gone as quickly as possible. the taliban has experience of being on the receiving end of u.s. military technology and it has nothing to gain at this point in doing anything that

will purposefully delay the american withdrawal. especially when they have an american administration that has so firmly said we are out on august 31. i'm sure the taliban is as upset with these events of yesterday, for different reasons, as the united states. certainly isis is playing the role of spoiler here. tom: greatly appreciate you starting your morning with us, benjamin hopkins. from george washington university, cannot say enough about his expertise on central asia. lots more coming up. i want to emphasize a conversation in the 7:00 hour i believe on the backside with general kim. i have just asked for and we finally get him on this morning. after this very difficult day yesterday as well. it lisa, i want to go to the bond market where we have real stasis. i like what you said about the ambiguity. there is a major mystery about headlines at 10:00 that mike

mckee will explain. lisa: the idea also of how the fed will frame it. everyone is focused on the tapering debate and the theme of this conference's macroeconomic policy in an unequal recovery. i have to say some of the research coming out is fascinating, including one bit from princeton among others. it is taking a look at how low rates increase -- any quality can directly go toward lowering rates. you can get into the cycle where any quality begets low rates, low rates beget more inequality and vice versa. how much will they focus on these aspects that have a direct effect on the bond market? i know you think it is probably esoteric for me to talk about this. tom: no, it will be important within the papers. lisa: i think so. perhaps we will color their views. tom: it will be virtual, which will be different but they will have one to three authors and they have a discuss it, a fancy

superstar would like to talk to. then they argue. it is not every year but once every three years, somebody goes mental and starts screaming. taylor: concerned this time around is that markets are thinking it is virtual and maybe some complacency. i think we all know that the last 18 months have been virtual and there has not been a lot of complacency. tom: the inflamed eight-foot bear standing outside of jackson hole and somehow the bear is not virtual. neither is michael mckee. he will be in studio with wonderful guests including rafael bostic. with futures up 14 and the vic's up 17.84. -- the vic's, 17.84 -- vix, 1724. this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. president biden and israel's prime minister will meet at the white house the day after the

original meeting was delayed all living the bombings in afghanistan. -- following the bombings in afghanistan. the u.s. favors a diplomatic agreement to stop iran's nuclear program. israel said it may use secret tacts. an israeli study showed people who recovered from a bout of covid early in the pandemic have a lower risk of contracting the delta variant and those who received the pfizer beyond tech vaccine. the results are good news for patients who are already successfully -- have already successfully battled covid. try not released most copperheads of warning yet against big corporations. a spelled out how the 996 practice is illegal. that is working employees from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. six days a week. there has been a backlash against the growing to man's of the private sector. dell is showing the personal

computer market is showing -- computer market is suffering. dell was more bullish about the outlook and hp. dell said the company was struggling to get all of the chips it needs. peloton is going down scale. they are cutting prices to speed up a push into the middle class. balaton slashed the price of its most popular bike by $400 to just under $1500. the fastest growing consumer segment is people under the age of 30 that make less than $50,000. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> people will be able to take the masks off in the future once

we get to a steady state and have people protected against severe complications. right now, we have 20% of americans over 65 not fully vaccinated. that's a gap we need to close. tom: stuart ray on infectious disease with john hopkins. all the other universities are there that we speak to as well. good morning. much going on as we get to 10:00 a.m. eastern time and the speech of the fairman of the chatter or reserve. looking at the market, futures up. taylor riggs is in for jon ferro. lisa abramowicz and tom. thank you for being with us. the bloomberg school of public health in baltimore, we should note mr. bloomberg is a supporter of this tv and radio operation as he is of the good university of baltimore. andrew, i got an email yesterday from new york university getting me ready for my booster shot

coming up. is the booster shot we are anticipating the same as the measles, mumps, rubella booster shot or all of the other booster shots of our childhood? >> the principal is the same. it is to make sure that your immunity is not only boosted, meaning your immunity in the immediate timeframe is higher and stronger that it was reduced, but there's a lot -- it was pre-boost, but air is a lot of data showing that boost will improve your memory responses. that will improve the cells present and that will be able to respond to a future exposure of the virus and make you better protected against infection. booster principles there are the same way. the benefits will be for immediate protection but also for longer-term protection. lisa: do we basically come to the conclusion the vaccines as they are now are not sufficient

to block out the delta variant when you see a place like vermont was such a high vaccination rate seeing cases go up at such a dramatic pace? andrew: i think vaccines need to do two things, first and foremost, protect against hospitalizations, severe disease, death. the vaccines in the u.s. are doing that even against the delta variant. we are seeing increases in the amount of breakthrough cases that are symptomatic in vaccinated people, but we have to put that in context. the vaccine is providing great amounts of protection against infection and this surge in cases is being driven by on vaccinated people here in the u.s.. that is not to minimize the fact delta is a much more aggressive variant than any previous ones and is challenging our vaccines and away we did not think was possible a few months ago. delta is stronger, it is making inroads into the vaccinated

population, but the vaccines are holding up. lisa: we are talking a lot about vaccines and who can get vaccinated and the kids under the age of 12 cannot. we are about to go back to school, most kids, across the united states at a time where we have this really infectious variant. it is spreading wildly. we hear reports that kids are getting sicker with this variant. what is the latest on that? dr. pekosz: yeah, and the news is a little concerning. the cdc came out with new numbers this week that suggested the infection rate in children and even adults under the age of 20 or so is driving the number of cases in the u.s. right now. we are seeing delta variant penetrate into younger populations more effectively than previous variants. we are seeing it cause a greater agree of disease. meaning we always expected a certain number of cases of severe disease in younger

populations. that percentage seems to be increasing with delta variant. it does seem to be this virus is more transmissible, can cause more disease in younger populations, and like you said, we are gearing up to get back into schools at a time when vaccines are not available in a wide enough portion of the population to provide the extra level of traction. it is a concern going to the pole. lisa: what is the data, the science, the guidance on getting vaccines to those under 12, 16, you name it? dr. pekosz: the clinical trials are underway. they were delayed a little bit because the fda wanted the companies to add more children to the study to really get a handle on some of the adverse effects that were penetrating in older populations. they wanted to get a handle on the safety issue in the younger populations. there are also issues of dosing of vaccine. different doses are being given

to different populations to see with the best dose is. there's a lot of science and clinical work that has to go into getting this right because these are our children. we want to make sure the safety and efficacy is higher than what we did for the adult population. taylor: does the full fda approval on monday and the upcoming expectations of the next fda approval of the next vaccine, does that change the game on the margin? dr. pekosz: i do hope so. the data that led to the full approval of the pfizer vaccine and data that will lead to the full approval of the moderna vaccine has been out there for months. we have seen it, it is fantastically good data in terms of safety and efficacy, and this full approval i hope will drive not only more people to reconsider their decision not to be vaccinated and go forward with it, but at the end of the day, it may validate mandates

for certain types of work, certain types of activity because we have the data, it is clear the vaccines are safe and are working, we need to use them more efficiently and more effectively to get the pandemic under control. tom: thank you so much dr. pekosz. the idea here at jackson hole, there will be the speech of the bankers, the chairman, all of that and then a lunchtime speech under the beautiful tents. in the papers, the kansas city fed's tradition is to keep the papers under wrap to the point where we don't even know the agenda until last night after thinking it was 3:00 p.m. lisa: i think it was 7:00 p.m. tom: and we don't see the papers until they come out which drives me nuts. the imf is always a treat.

all of a sudden, as you said it was 7:00 p.m. last night, my must-read paper is eric leeper of the university of virginia, this is his wheelhouse, fiscal and monetary policy with the former vice chairman of the fed. i will look at that. lisa: what i think is interesting is this meeting arguably could be more important to the rest of the world and even the united states. arguably tapering at this point and the path of it will have a more dramatic effect on other developed and developing nations. we hear that from philip lane at the ecb earlier this week where he was saying they are gearing up for potentially responding to any fallout from what the fed does. to give you a sense of how closely all of the international community is watching this meeting end what fed chair powell has to say. tom: so did the president of bloomberg intelligence emerging-market analysis. he says look, how is the central

banker for these emerging markets, looking at incredible yield differentials compared to the united states. stay with us through the morning. this is bloomberg on radio and television. ♪

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♪ >> if you look at everything we have been through, it is not clear we have been through a recession, so it is not clear we are going into a recovery. >> monetary policy is getting more rational, and the economy is likely to remain strong. >> the path of least resistance continues to be higher. >> the big problem if we don't start tapering, whether it is in october or november or december, is the pressure of inflation. >> i would watch the debt ceiling. i think you've got to fear the debt ceiling. september is going to be a white knuckle event. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene, on radio, on television. it is a friday of federal reserve and economics. we will have full coverage through the morning. jon ferro off. taylor riggs in this