>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are today's top stories. sticking with the message, powell uses jackson hole to say the fed could begin tapering this year but isn't in a hurry to hike rates. ida wreaks havoc, louisiana faces blackouts amid some of the

most powerful winds to hit the state, the power -- the hurricane knocks out over 95% of power in the gulf. and opposition -- an opposition leader cements his position as front runner. markets waking up in europe, markets looking at the speech from j pallet they haven't already done, a clear message from the fed chair that tapering could happen this year but let's delink that from the glide path for rates. looking at real yield, currently the 10-year at 130, you take into account inflation and the real yield taking a leg lower on

the back of those comments from jay powell. a dovish message reassuring the credit and equity markets. the focus now turning to the end of this week, september 1, and the jobs data and if that adds volatility to what is otherwise a sanguine take from jay powell. let's check in on the markets in asia, modest gains across the board. some upside in mainland china. more liquidity pumped in by the pboc, although increased concerns, another broadside in parts of the economy as a push continues to restrain and rein in areas of the chinese economy. the msci pacific gaining 7/10 of 1%. the s&p just into the green on the back of the jay powell speech. the greenback has weakened

again. u.s. 10 year yield currently at 130 on the back of those comments. fed chair jerome powell, the dovish stance at jackson hole, giving investors a list to start the week. we spoke to a host of fed presidents on the timeline of the tapering. >> we put the statement about what it would begin -- take for us to begin tapering and i think we are pretty much there. >> we have a fair amount of energy and momentum and i think we can do our tapering faster. >> phase out the purchases and gives ourselves breathing room. >> keep it simple, student. start the process and get it over with. >> it may give us more flexibility down the road. >> the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases is not carried -- intended to carry a signal in terms of interest rate lift off, for which we have articulated a

different and more substantially stringent test. tom: as i mentioned, attention turns to the august jobs. joining us is our guest, global head of research. thank you for joining us this morning. we have some clarity on the sequencing but still questions remain on timing. what is your take on what you heard from jay powell? >> good morning. i think what is really interesting is this summer we are clearly shifting from the damage control phase, fighting aggressively the pandemic, to now the strategy of normalization. i think there are two important points about what was indicated on friday.

first, this will be a very gradual process. we have the tapering starting early 2022. it is likely to come a little bit earlier. as you mentioned, there are still uncertainties whether it will come in september or later in the year, but this will be a process. we see the tapering going through the new asset purchase through 2022, but it is likely the fed will keep its balance sheet size in 2023 by investing in -- we know the size has more impact than the flows on the rate. that brings up an important point, powell insisted on the difference between the tapering on the rate high, that will

require more stringent conditions. as you mentioned, the employment is coming up the end of this week. we heard clearly that the fed will be looking for -- by december. and obviously inflation and normalization. for us as a rating agency, i think what is important to watch from the credit standpoint in this tapering trade is the ability of the tapering happening without triggering market volatility, and as well as being critical to avoid the rapid tightening of conditions.

we have a very large share of low rated credit. tom: give us an assessment, what is the take on the vulnerability of the credit markets as we look ahead potentially to a tapering at the end of this year? alexandra: you know, what i think we have to keep in mind, it is something we had before the start of the pandemic, we were starting to see a large share of those credit ratings, b-and below -- b- and below, reflecting conditions. after the pandemic, in the pandemic, close to 78% of credit in the u.s. is b- and below. that means we have a pool of credit that is more -- if there

is a credit shift. different funding conditions over the past few months. many of them have taken the opportunity to refinance their debt and push down the maturity. it is something we are really vigilant about at the moment. tom: we also of course, are focused on the political events in germany leading up to the election on september 25. that brings our focus to europe and european credit. do you see defaults edging down, the trajectory of default risk starting to edge lower? what are the factors behind that? alexandra: we just published a report this week indicating we see the default continuing to increase in the u.s. and europe.

4.8% in june 2021, and we see it going to 3.25% next year and 2.5% in the u.s.. the factors are a strong economic rebound on the back of the vaccine rollout. that is really above expectation in this first half of the year. we shouldn't forget that there has been this cocktail of extraordinary monetary stimulus that has boosted the economy. as well as provided important to liquidity, including in a category that investors are using to search for yield. in terms of credit quality, the

ratio of downgrades in europe is 321. some -- 3 to 1. we started talking about powell. we are now gradually entering the normalization phase, and for these creditors that have high leverage or sectors that could be impacted, transportation, leisure, media. these are things to watch. tom: sectors to watch and the default risks in europe heading lower. alexandra from s&p global ratings, thank you for your insight this morning. let's get the first word news. angel: anthony felt he says the

door is open to administering booster shots in the u.s. in less than eight months after a completed vaccination. that is a possibility the president biden has raised bid the infectious disease expert says he is open to the timeline based on data. the u.s. has outlined a plan to administer booster shots as a vaccine efficacy is showing to weaken over time. singapore's population is now fully vaccinated against covid, outpacing most advanced economies. senior officials have linked this to gradually opening up activities and quarantine free travel. the country has had more social distancing measures than most countries. a u.s. drone lou up -- blew up terrorists in kabul.

last week, a suicide bomber killed at least 88 people, including 13 u.s. service members. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: angel, thank you. coming up, fortescue is a seeing a bump after reporting record profits on iron ore prices. the ceo will join us to discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am tom mackenzie. fortescue saw annual profit more

than double to a record high as commodity prices surged. the australian minor gaining after -- miner gaining after saying it expects iron ore exports on par with less tribute -- last year. >> a big topic of conversation for miners is the outlook with china, given efforts to curb environmental emissions. elizabeth, we appreciate your time. are you seeing signs of lagging demand out of the chinese market? >> i think we are seeing signs of moderation in the iron ore price and that is a reflection of a number of factors. there's been some weaker macroeconomic data out of china, efforts to curb crude steel production, and also more transitory impacts, whether that is the recent covid outbreak or

wet weather. all of those have combined to create some volatility in the iron ore price. but it is still higher than the average for all of the financial year we just reported, which was fy 21, so the average for fy 21 was 154 dollars and we generated record results. currently it's around $157. supply is still relatively constrained, there has been challenges with supply of iron ore. despite cooling in steel production, it is still up 8% from july last year and we expect rebounding construction activity and demand in the fourth quarter of this year, which is usual. we continue to see strong demand.

we are still seeing very strong market and demand for iron ore. haidi: how much are you seeing the impact of delta as being a threat to global production and demand? elizabeth: global steel production is actually up end of last year, about 21%. we are seeing the world steel production up about 21%. market conditions currently indicate a strong recovery from last year's covid impacted levels. the impact of delta is difficult to say at the moment in terms of what might come through, but certainly through the end of july we continued to see very strong conditions. we are not anticipating any significant impact from delta, but in terms of -- and terms of iron ore and steel production, but it is something we continue to monitor. haidi: have you seen any disruption from the impact of delta and covert outbreaks and

lockdowns in parts of australia? elizabeth: it has proven some challenges. we do still have -- the majority of our workforce, about 90% reside in western australia so we have been a little bit quarantined. but having mobility of labor is important to us. what we have seen is a number have permanently relocated to western australia or temporary -- temporarily relocated. we continue to support them so they have somewhere to stay. but there is no doubt that there are border restrictions and impact on the mobility of labor, and we have been managing it for a long time. but it has been a real challenge. haidi: you said you will be tackling scope three missions next month. previously, you refrain from setting a target. has there been a change of heart? elizabeth: we have been doing a

lot of practical initiatives, so we have been working with their customers on the technical merits. looking at research and develop and around the production of green iron. we are committed to reducing emissions. we don't like to set targets without a credible pathway. now with the development of fortescue future industries in the work we are doing, we feel confident we can set those targets and have a credible pathway to achieve those targets. that has been the important part of our journey in reduced emission targets. haidi: we -- will you join some of the other corporate and mandating covid-19 vaccinations in your workplace? elizabeth: we are not at the point of mandating vaccinations

in our workforce. we have a lot of testing facilities and place, we do rapid testing before anyone travels to a site. the reason we are not at the point of mandating vaccinations is we've seen quite a slow rollout of vaccinations and the ability to get vaccinated. we need to find out what the vaccine hesitancy rate is before we can have a view around mandatory vaccinations. our workforce is very strongly aligned to our culture, which first and foremost is about safety, which is looking out for yourself and your mates. if you wanted to do that, you would go down the path of vaccination, so we think we will have a high uptake of vaccination. but it has not been long that only those over age 20 have been able to get vaccinated. we are very focused and we've done a great job of keeping covid out of our operational

sites, and that is because of rapid antigen testing. haidi: as you well know, this month for the first time in history, there have been no -- in the asx 200 and part of that is the appointment of women to key mining companies. how proud are you and how much more work is there to do? elizabeth: first, i am proud to see their is real momentum in this. i must admit, in the 30 years of my career, i thought we might have been there earlier. it has been a bit slow. my focus is much more around -- seeing more ceos of companies that are female. having been an oddity of one of only a few female ceos, i prefer to see that more mainstream. we still have a lot of work to do.

at fortescue we are focused on diversity, it is one of the keys to our success. we have a workforce representative of the community in which we live. we are focused on that, there has been good progress but more can be done. the numbers show that diversity is not just the right thing to do, it is the smart thing to do. companies that are more diverse deliver better longer-term financial performance. haidi: visibility is such a big part of getting that representation. we have to leave it there. elizabeth gaines, ceo of fortescue. tom: great stuff. haidi stroud-watts speaking to fortescue metals group ceo elizabeth gaines. coming up, hurricane ida on the 16th anniversary of hurricane katrina. it shattered refineries along the coast and it may boost gasoline prices.

the latest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." hurricane ida intensified over the weekend and has now hit louisiana, more than 750,000 homes and businesses have lost power. u.s. operators in the gulf have been forced to shut her 95% of oil output. joining us from singapore is our energy reporter. thank you for coming on and discussing with us. what is the market watching at this point? stephen: i think what people are watching is gasoline. they are looking at the refined product of oil. the reason for that is the

hurricane has barreled through louisiana and shut a lot of refining capacity in the u.s. while there is a lot of crude output in the gulf of mexico, those facilities are used to passing storms. they often shut production and even though 95% of that gulf capacity is off-line, the market is expecting that to come back relatively quickly, which is like you are seeing gasoline prices in the u.s. spike, where you see brent and wti, the more international markers for crude oil, kind of staying flat compared to last friday. the reason for that is when a hurricane barrels through a state like louisiana, there is more potential for power outages and other things that could stop operations of those refining facilities that will take more time for it to turn on. there could potentially be a tighter gasoline market in the u.s.. very much a domestic story at

the moment. tom: what about natural gas production and exports? stephen: natural gas makes up about 3% of total production in the u.s. gulf, it has all been shut and led to a spike in prices. another interesting thing is the hurricane missed largely the u.s. lng export plants. because of that, you are seeing the drop in output in the gulf but you are seeing strong export from the u.s., that is pulling the market two and pushing toward a tighter market for natural gas in the u.s. the good news for asia and europe, lng deliveries from the u.s. are largely unaffected by the hurricane and it looks like there will not be anymore tightening in the and international natural gas market. tom: stephen, thank you for the update on the hurricane's impact on the commodity complex in the u.s.. coming up, the candidates vying

to take over from angela merkel face-off in the first televised german election debate could i'm going to break down -- debate. i'm going to break down the policy issues. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live.

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tom: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it is 6:30 a.m. in london, i am tom mackenzie and this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." sticking with the message, pal uses jackson hole to say the fed could begin tapering this year but not in a hurry to hike rates. ida wreaks havoc, louisiana faces lockouts amid some of the most powerful winds to have the

state, the hurricane knocking out over 95% of oil output in the gulf. and germany's first head-to-head election debate, a candidate failed to lift his flagging campaign as the opposition leader cements his position as front-runner. another record on wall street on the back of dovish comments from the fed chair jay powell at jackson hole. the asian markets are looking optimistic this morning, gains of 8/10 of a percent. s&p futures also in the green after a record close on wall street. the dollar moderately weaker, but you did see some softness coming through on the back of those comments from jay powell. in terms of the u.s. 10 year, 130. the front end of the curve pinned down from those comments by the fed chair. we don't have clarity on the

timing but the sequencing has been spelled out by jay powell. let's focus on the german elections coming up september 26. the three front runners vying to take over from angela merkel have faced off in what was the first televised election debate of the german election. the contender from angela merkel's conservative bloc was seen as the biggest loser. the greens came in second, behind the current finance minister and spd candidate. it is a blow for merkel's heir. let's look at the legacy for the german chancellor. >> angela merkel appear don germany's political scene after the fall of the berlin wall. she was what the then chancellor was looking for, a young ambitious woman from the east. angela merkel's journey has not

been easy. she has always had a card up her sleeve. she is finding her feet, tested by the global financial crisis and negotiating a stimulus package to counter the great recession. her mantra is the euro fails, europe fails. in late 2011, she ordered the end of nuclear power in germany by 2022 in the wake of fukushima , i catastrophe -- a catastrophe over 4000 miles away. the debt crisis rolls on and merkel comes under fire over the refugee crisis. vladimir putin invades crimea, the u.k. votes to leave the eu and then there is donald trump. if postelection talks of dragon to december, merkel will become germany's longest-serving leader.

battling covid may have been her toughest hand yet and it is a test that is far from over. the question is, how will germany's next chancellor play the cards that have been dealt by angela merkel? tom: ok, let's get more from maria tadeo in berlin. who won the debate? maria: if you look at the poll that was done after the debate yesterday, it was the first debate with the three main candidates, it was the finance minister that won, cementing the narrative that the spd is in the lead. we also had a poll on sunday suggesting this is not just a net can raise -- and net -- neck and neck race, spd is ahead of the christian democrats. in terms of the content of the

debate, you could argue that the candidate managed to revive his campaign to some extent. we saw someone on the attack, more dynamic than we have seen until now, energetic. the same thing with the greens, she has a very good lines, including the situation on -- in afghanistan. a much more mixed picture. it was not just about shaolz for the others to jump start their campaigns. tom: you talked about foreign policy. what about european policy? maria: that is a good question. a lot of the international community, especially investors that look at european assets and german assets, they really care what it means for deepening

monetary union in the european union. whether that means green or more physical spending -- fiscal spending. this did not occupy a lot of the debate. this is a very national politics based domestic agenda that dominated the discussion between the three candidates. not a lot of detail on that. that tells you a lot perhaps on the direction. if you're hoping the next german government will spend big and perhaps be more into the deepening of the european union, we might not that. it might be a continuation of the policy we have seen until now in europe. tom: ok, maria tadeo, thank you for the insights and analysis on that important debate. increasingly interesting german election, it kicks off september 26. joining us now is our guest. there are multiple different

scenarios that come out of this, maria was outlining for us to of these candidates in that debate, having something of value last night. schulz was seen as winning the debate. the various scenarios, how do they play out for you in terms of likelihood, and what are the fiscal implications of the trio we may end up seeing and power? >> first of all, after the debate yesterday, yes of course schulz was seen as the winner, but relative to expectations, you could say he did not outperform and the other two did not underperform. as to what it may mean in the end for fiscal, remember germany often moves by consensus. that is partly because the upper house of parliament, which is not up for election on the 26th of september, has a major say, especially on european and key

physical issues, and the other house of parliament, the social democrats and conservatives have a veto. the discussion on what it may mean, germany could get a significantly difficult direction, that is overdone. as for the different scenarios, the outcome is really as open as it was today. there is a good chance the conservatives, greens and liberals could join what we call a jamaica coalition -- black, green and yellow. that remains the single most likely outcome. there's an almost equal chance that the social democrats may join the greens for what we call the germany coalition, sorry, the traffic light coalition, the

colors of green, red and yellow. now comes the interesting bit. germany will probably need a three party coalition after the election, judging by current polls. it is possible we end up with a left-wing coalition where no liberal or conservative element would be in, that is the social democrats, the greens and the hard left left party. that could make a significant difference not really on the european side or the overall physical stance but in terms of regulations and higher -- overall physical stance but in terms of regulations and germany's economic performance. i would rate red, green, red at 20%. tom: 20% of tail risk, one that investors would be surprised by,

but a valuable point, the various different options, the traffic light, the jamaica option, and the left wing one with a 20% chance of happening. you talk about we need to focus on the impact of germany's demand and supply. and how that plays out on the back unpack that for us -- on the back of germany's elections. unpack that for us. >> first of all, the demand side, that's what the international focus is on but not so much of the domestic focus, which we heard from your reporter. these views that a more left-wing german government or more centerleft german government would open the fiscal taps and boost demand is very much overdone. for starters, a central left government would likely be led by the finance minister, who has been finance minister almost four years. the finance ministry changed

from the conservatives, and there wasn't much of shift and fiscal policy and we did not get much of a shift in german attitudes toward european integration, and they set conditions. so if schulz moves up from the finance ministry, i would not expect a major change in the german finance ministry. but supply could be hampered by regulations, by changes to the tax system. long-term drug on supply in my view is -- drag on supply in my view is more important than the short-term, which would be modest. tom: how should we be thinking about jerking -- germany's anger role -- anchor role and the

question of integration? >> germany is the anchor of european integration, but with weaker supply gains in germany and a more german -- regular to german economy, the role of an anchor would weaken under a left-wing government and would probably have a negative impact over all of europe. germany is a strong economy and strong anchor for europe, more important to the rest of europe than the question whether germany raises stimulus by 0.3%. tom: ok, thank you very much for that analysis and insight, pointing out that the fiscal impulse on the back of the elections in germany might not be as significant as some are suggesting. one industry that will continue

to be central to the german election and the country's economy, autos. matt miller spoke exclusively with the ceo of audi, who was bullish on the outlook for ev's. >> we have a better chance than any company in the world to offer high-quality and good priced product together with a good margin we can achieve because of facilities to sell the cars, highly differentiated, even using the same platform on the hardware and software side. tom: he thinks the odds of building cars in america are rising as a vw continues to electrify. markus: discussions on the

possible production in the u.s. are ongoing but we don't know at the moment what the result will be. we do have factories where we produce platforms. it is an important part -- point. the customers are super important for us. the likelihood of our production in the u.s. is there. tom: the audi ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg. let's get the first word news with angel. angel: hurricane ida landed in the louisiana, packing winds of 150 miles per hour and threatening to swamp new orleans with mass flooding. it moved ashore on the 16th anniversary of hurricane katrina. more than 750,000 homes and businesses are without power and blackouts could last weeks. huarong asset management reported a record loss of almost

$16 billion after revealing its results for 2025 months late. $18 billion on impairments and losses, but returned to profit in the first half of 2021. they plan to shed non--- all of their non-core subsidiaries, and that could affect the next 12 months. 80% of singapore's population is fully vaccinated against covid, and senior officials have linked it to gradually opening up social activities and quarantine fee travel. the nation has a stricter social distancing measures than many global financial capitals outside asia. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: angel, thank you. coming up, a u.s. drone blew up a vehicle headed for kabul airport that central command

says was carrying suicide bombers. president biden has said he will stop at nothing to make isis-k pay. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." a u.s. drone blew up a vehicle headed for kabul airport that officials say was carrying several suicide bombers, according to u.s. central command. this comes as u.s. troops start to wind down evacuation reports at -- efforts at the airport, leaving the country tomorrow. simone foxman joins us in doha. what more do we know about the strike at this point? simone: the strike that occurred

yesterday late in the day, u.s. officials are saying they knew the suicide bombers were aboard the vehicle because there were secondary explosions after the fact. unfortunately, we are hearing some reports that the united states is still investigating about possible civilian casualties, including children. u.s. officials in a statement saying this may in fact be the result of those secondary explosions, but they are not sure at this point. in the last few hours, getting news of another rocket attack at or near kabul airport, the reports are varied. president biden apparently briefed on this. reuters reporting that u.s. antimissile systems that intercept the rocket and evacuations continue apace, they are under pressure to get everything done they want to get done in the next 36 hours or so. tom: what an incredibly intense

situation. as you say, highlighting the rocket attacks around the airport, showing the determination of some of these militants to take a strike at the u.s. we have also been looking beyond the august 31 deadline, the tuesday deadline, for afghans and others that want to leave the country. some developments on that front? simone: yeah, encouraging for the countries that want to evacuate more of their citizens and afghan partners, about 100 countries came out with a statement yesterday saying they have received assurances from the taliban that those afghans who supported their efforts as well as foreigners will continue to be allowed to leave the country as long as they have the proper paperwork, proper authorization. this confirms some of the statements we have heard from the taliban publicly, but we have lingering doubts about this. at the same time as these

taliban leaders have said afghans, anyone who wants to leave can do so, we have seen reports on the ground of checkpoints and people not allowed through even if they had paperwork. there will be a nato ministerial virtual meeting today for those involved in the evacuation efforts. this will be the key theme they will be discussing on that call, as well as at the u.n. security council, britain and france have proposed a resolution and are calling for some policy to the same effect. tom: ok, simone foxman on the latest out of afghanistan as weak takedown -- we tick down to the deadline. next, we hear from a billionaire investor that says the next trade is anything but crypto. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would say that cryptocurrencies are a bubble, and i would describe cryptocurrencies as a limited supply of nothing. so to the extent there is more demand than the limited supply, the price would go up, what to the extent the demand goes down, the price would fall. >> why would you not put a short on cryptocurrencies, maybe you have, but do you think it is a good short? >> when we look for the

subprime, the reason we shorted was because it was asymmetrical. it has a limited duration and trades at 1% spread of treasury so you cannot lose more than the spread and duration. if it defaults, you can make the par amount. in crypto, there is unlimited downside. even though i could be right over the long-term, in the short term, as in the case of bitcoin, it went from 5000 to 45,000, you would be wiped out on the short side, it is too volatile to short. tom: john paulson speaking to david rubenstein. you can catch the full episode tuesday in new york or wednesday in london. speaking of crypto, let's check the prices. bitcoin up 625% year to date. ethereum down. that is the bloomberg galaxy

crypto index. let's look at what we will be watching out this week, the u.s. open tennis tournament starts today and we will get euro area consumer confidence as well. tomorrow, all eyes on biden and afghanistan as almost all american troops they be pulled out of the country after nearly 20 years. that 31st date. wednesday, we will be monitoring the opec-plus meeting. thursday, eu foreign affairs ministers meet in slovenia. friday, we have the august u.s. jobs report. that's where the focus switches after that important speech from jay powell where he tried to delink the start of tapering from the start of the rate hike cycle. we don't have a timing yet but the assumption by many investors is set timber is when it gets announced, and bloomberg intelligence things december is when tapering starts but jay

powell trying to delink the two. flat when it comes to u.s. futures after a record, and the dollar is marginally higher after softness on friday. stay with us, the european open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts,

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>>." the cash trade is just under an hour away. sticking with the message. powell uses jackson hole to say the fed could begin tapering this year but is not in a hurry to hike rates. either wreaks havoc. louisiana faces blackouts amid the most