>> the fed told us that they would give us advance notice before announcing a taper and i would argue they have done that. >> as long as you are doing this independently. >> the fed does not taper but we know that tapering is inevitable . >> it will raise rates when it has to. ask more dovish today, it allows for a generation of rove and inflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning, everyone. it's monday, "always interesting and more so this monday, lisa, as we set up your jobs day on friday. lisa: it may be more important than jackson hole. last friday, how much will it affect the federal and how much

will it frankly be a more tradable event? tom: the estimate was down to 5.2 percent unemployment, 750,000. lisa, five .2% is nicely on the way to a ater american economy. >> though still much russian as to what for employment means. some say it's tighter and others say that we still have a lot of slack labor market uncertainty that is very much not weird up on friday and very much unclear with some of the jobless data and filings that seem to be coming down at a time when there are still millions out of work. tom: interesting news flow, taylor, is this where strategist tweak upwards? am i reading this correctly without my glasses? 4509?

taylor: 4500 if you like round numbers, northward to 5000 you have really seen the bulls come out. though i would sort of mentioned that it has been a tech rally, as we have been talking about how hard it is to get a reflation every trade and maybe bob dole has the answer to the russian. but it hasn't been a russell 2000 that matches the tech heavy 500. tom: the pendulum of worry, as they say, accountable this morning and we shouldn't make from the -- make fun of it after a difficult weekend in kabul. the set of worries that we have is tangible. lisa: the idea of this backdrop taking out power from new orleans, it's unclear if they will regain power potentially for a month, meaning no air conditioning and it really raises some issues. talking about the potential

risks not leaning into market expectations in any way, shape, or form. tom: help me out here, the vix, not out on the recent optimism of under 16, but nevertheless they made a lot of movement from the powell speech. taylor: what does that complacency tell us? abigail joins us in the afternoon, what is it tell you about the complacency? the skew index, can we do that that 7:00 a.m.? the hedging that you see going on underlies the equity markets. tom: one dollar weaker, lisa and i noticed that the euro is stronger about a half-hour ago. lisa, to summarize the weekend, staggering to september. lisa: the idea that crude is

lower is fascinating, potentially disrupted supply in the gulf of mexico, less than expected when it comes to potential damage there. you are seeing crude get a bit of a decline from where we were on friday. today, 10:00 a.m., the president and vice president are meeting with their national security team to discuss the road ahead in afghanistan. how do we get traction and do drone strikes if we don't have intelligence? how do we maintain alliances with countries that are dismayed at how the rollout really went? how far are we in getting everybody out before the deadline, which could be as soon as later tonight in the august 31 deadline? pending july home sales, the expectation is a bit of a decline in the idea here is that prices are high and there isn't

that much inventory and people are slowing their activity there. the u.s. and the cdc today are going to begin a two day meeting to talk about roosters. do we need them, when do we need them? sooner? what is the path for the under 12? sending kids back to school without any sense of when the youngest will get vaccinated at a time when we have this contagious delta variant. tom: there's no other topic on august 30 -- august 30 for most families other than what happens at school this time around. right now the most in conversation of the day and of the week, for those saying lose the fancy talk, give me some courage, for decades robert doll has done just that, with a storied career in the equity markets, bob, i love that in your research note, you say look

, we have got to invest in a "silk good economy. -- still good economy. what do stocks do in a still good economy? bob: they generally go up. the path of reason -- lisa liston's will be to the upside. that does not mean a fly in the ointment. i could give you a list. lisa: the flying the ointment, let's go right there, that's how i roll. what fly in the ointment are you looking at that could disrupt things in a way that people are not expecting? bob: it's always hard. we all just talked about coronavirus in the delta variant, but inside the market the earnings estimates for the third quarter peaked in early august and are off a little bit. four quarters, right during the quarterly earnings estimates went up. the average stock, what's the

tone as the market it's tighter? i can find flies in the ointment, but material wise that's a great question. taylor: can we get a reflationary cyclical trade of bond yields don't rise? bob: that's the million-dollar westin. if you dropped me on the planet and told me everything except for the 10 year and asked me to guess, i would guess higher than 130. there's something going on in the bond market where it has the same yield as the 10 year treasury. it has to go up. in my view the cyclical kit trade comes back on. jonathan: you have fought against flies in the ointment for decades and said that we had to participate in the foundation of it where corporations adjust. do you observe and and what way

do you observe corporations adjusting into 2022? bob: a stark look in the rearview mirror, first. if you had told me that there were more companies on the s&p 500 that would benefit then would be heard, i wouldn't have believe you, but that's exactly what happened. corporations are figuring out how to morph and are dealing with very low interest rates. they learned how to raise prices in an environment where pricing power is coming back. they have kept costs down. labor being the fly in the ointment on that one. they have morphed in a lot of ways that cause them to print these excellent earnings reports. lisa: talking about another fly in the ointment , to repeat that for everyone eating breakfast, higher taxes, washington, d.c.

pulling together an infrastructure plan. what isn't accounted for right now? bob: i still think the path of least resistance is a democratic reconciliation package following the biden partisan infrastructure plan, but a much water down one. call it $2 trillion with up to $1 trillion in tax increases. the plain-vanilla ones for the higher wage earners with capital gains. you know, the afghanistan thing does not raise the political capital of biden to get it through. whatever the probability there is, it's lower now. tom: what's your target on s&p 500? bob: i'm embarrassed to say 40 to 50 as it keeps going up. tom: well, let's revise it right now for taylor riggs. bob: all right, 4500.

tom: there we go, making news. [laughter] 4500, pretty cool. taylor: i'll take it. tom: see how you do that, you drag the news out of them. taylor: such a slow monday that i had to come on the panel. tom: what did i just do? [laughter] lisa: we are at 4509, remember. tom: i hear thundering silence. everyone is upgrading to say the least and we make jokes about it, but it's the chase after the market. taylor: and that's a good point, reflationary trade with yield so low, if you told him where the s&p 500 would be he would have thought they were a lot higher. i consistently heard price targets on the 10 year yield might head northwards but it's hard to get there with some of these technical factors underway. jonathan: the strata -- tom: the

strategies we heard from jon ferro is that if you don't get a wicked low yield, stocks go up in their we are with a 1.30%. lisa: that's the question i have. tom: when john comes back? that's a question i have. [laughter] lisa: and did he find the dalai lama? jonathan: he really went to tibet. -- tom: he really went to tibet on a camel. lisa: i honestly have no idea. [laughter] going forward, it will be interesting to see if taper is more of a concern for market. tom: jobs day on friday, full coverage on friday morning reagan stay with us, much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> petroleum, helping the kim jong-un regime adding to its stockpile of material needed to

make nuclear weapons and the reactor is used to churn out roughly enough for one atomic bomb in recent years with uranium enrichment or nuclear warheads. china, regulators are cracking down on the games industry. minors limited to three hours per week, aimed at curbing excessive indulgence and games and assisting mental health. toyota with record demands from july for suv's and hybrid. the japanese automaker making deliveries by 16% from one year earlier. due to the parts shortages. global news, 24 hours per day on bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> as soon the storm passes, we are going to put this, but the countries full might hind the

rescue and recovery in a be here to help the gulf region and get back out there as ugly as possible, long as it takes. tom: the president managing the message over the weekend with important meetings at the white house today and all having a collective mystery of a deadline of august already first, tomorrow. that comes closer in kabul as well. taylor riggs is in for jonathan ferro. futures are up four, yields are not having me much here. churned flat. emily in the last hour on afghan and, and now on washington. i try to envision off the note this morning, anne-marie, the idea of the speaker, perhaps, and president biden in january of 2023. is your washington planning for

that? >> not yet, i would say, but there is obviously talk of midterm elections and a slim majority held by the democrats that they could lose in the house and as you rightfully say, this would elevate the congressman from california and it would then mean for the democrats very much so an absolute pause on trying to get anything done which means the next few months for the fiscal agenda is crucial. tom: is it crucial, the link between the bills or is that where they go to get the moderates back? annmarie: it remains to be seen but pelosi indicated that it was crucial because she needed to vote to keep the progressives happy and make sure the reconciliation and resolution went forward so that they could start repairing the details of the budget and at the same time

putting it in print that she promises to have a vote by the 27th when it comes to bipartisan infrastructure. there is a lot of talk of too much back and forth in the democratic party but people lose sight of the fact that the democrats know that this is their moment. lisa: moving away from political machinations, let's look at what is happening on the ground with hurricane ida. there was a thought that the region had been fortified through the advancement in the levees. how much of that had been passed so that the additional storms slated to come wouldn't have as harmful of an effect? annmarie: this is the biggest test we have seen in the area since katrina and its theory that it is to the day. there are a lot of things in the bipartisan agreement that goes

towards nixing bridges, etc.. louisiana is specifically very specific in the sense that a lot of work was done immediately to the area following the hurricane , but in the reconciliation package that the democrats have been locust on there is a number of advancement. we don't know all the details yet, but we know they want to make a lot of money and advancements when it comes to climate change initiatives and many people following the hurricane will say that it's worse and potentially these things could get worse and the weather elements could happen more quickly and swiftly than ever before and you will see a lot of that. lisa: that's why wanted to go and tom asked of this russian. how much is this a bipartisan issue in washington, d.c. versus a partisan one when it comes to the green agenda? annmarie: it's complicated

because you will have these places like louisiana where it's hurricane katrina, category four, more than one million people losing power with a lot of oil and gas refineries and republicans in the state wanting to make sure that they are keeping a hold on and making sure that there are incentives for the companies to continue operating, sometimes going against the green agenda. you can already see the language coming out of these committees about wanting to put more money toward the environment more conservation, meaning more royalties on oil, gas, and pipeline companies. it's tricky when you look at specific laces. taylor: between the conversations we keep having about new orleans and the reporters wanting to do follow-up questions and walking away, why isn't the president answering more questions? annmarie: that is a good

question. he was asked by our very own jennifer jacobs about afghanistan, but he was at an event with fema talking about the hurricane and potentially he didn't want to divert them what was going on here at home, making sure that the thousands of people who are evacuating and losing their homes and they are dealing with a surge of cases in their hospitals, the situation could become dire. maybe he didn't want to distract from that to talk about afghanistan but there is a lot of criticism about this moment from the president on sunday because obviously a lot of hearts and minds are about what's going on in kabul. taylor: when did we get more information on the names of who was targeted and the drone attack? annmarie: we are waiting for when the pentagon could potentially brief today. kirby could give us an update, but what we know from afghan reports is that there were civilians who were struck, including children.

casualties, injured fatalities, we just don't know yet and the pentagon has yet to confirm but those are the reports coming out of afghanistan and i would imagine at some point today we get a report on that. tom: we have got all of these other diversions front and center right now as well. lisa, bringing it back to oil, 72 71, there is a bid to it? lisa: robert had that great insight where he said crude oil was lower because refineries were down and we didn't have the gasoline and you couldn't have the demand for crude. how much will this be temporary and how long will it go on ashen mark -- go on? tom: at the same time there are reports of serious transmission issues around new orleans. taylor, i have got to go back to the firm amazon transaction that really goes to the new

technology. you could take it broader on the economy, everybody is adapting to this strange thing called technology on cell phones. taylor: and the buy now pay later eventually is what we are all doing here. what i'd like to affirm is the dynamics we have folded into peloton when it was down whatever it was, given the slowdown that you saw in the checkpoints that analysts had incoming, given that they had seen the slowdown, it goes the other way today. a boost from the payment center aspects. tom: starting with oil, west texas, 70 to 72. gold had a nice lift, i know it's 18 or 19. i've gotten nothing in the yield space. 1.31% on the 10 year bond.

equities, they give me a lift, a fractional lift. futures are up four. stay with us, this is bloomberg good morning. ♪

tom: what do you predict the taliban will do in the coming months and years? >> consolidation of their power and gaining international legitimacy and recognition. this is the priority for the taliban. not just the trends -- jihad or activities outside afghanistan. if you really watch carefully, what they have done in the past few days, they are engaged in a public relations offensive. trying to convince the world, if you listen carefully to what they are saying, you would think they are newly born democrats, peacemakers. the reason why, they want to consolidate their power and convince the world that they have changed.

♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance," monday, last week of august, supposed to be dead, nothing going on. forget about that, huge international relations and politics this week. we will give you full coverage of that. up to that jobs report. that all means that we will hang on to each and every data check and we start strong with taylor riggs. lisa: -- taylor: christ mark with a price tag, migrating northward to that 4500, exactly where we were on the s&p 500. how do you get the reflationary cyclical trade looking at the russell 2000? bond yields not

you -- moving higher, that's the disconnect we follow in the tech heavy s&p 500 leading the way here as well. we talked a lot about the bond yields with that first taper by new -- year end and pushing forward to friday with a big range around jobs, so what does it mean for bond yields where we don't get increase or lift off from what would be another year northward out from that. even the 10 year is not doing anything. 1.31 with a 30 year at 1.92 that does nothing to get us anywhere closer to that 2%. how does it impact tech or really, one of the stocks of the morning that we have been following, firm reversal from the negative peloton news to the positive news of amazon. romain: we were talking about those shares under pressure on friday and it was because their largest customer, peloton, had a

sales slowdown and now there is no larger customer than amazon, 40% pop in the free market and if you go to amazon and want to buy something more than $50, you will be able to buy now, pay later, effectively installment loans with buttons on other websites that will now be featured on amazon and if you are a company like that, there's no better news. you have seen a lot of tech stocks get a head off this and keep an eye on mark eta, up 13% in the premarket where their largest customers had half of their revenue coming from square in the system and there is a lot of talk about that company buy now pay later service that could inflate these partnerships with paypal going up as well. a few other things to keep an eye on here, vaccine stocks, moderna and buying on tech, --

biontech, the government has already committed to buying 630 million of the shots already in 2022. it's been announced and reflected in company earnings and forecasts in the stock price and it's unlikely that even with approval of the booster shots that the government need to buy more of these. that's the problem. any kids listening, cover your ears, you may not want to hear this, but regulators in china say you are only allowed to play three hours a week of videogames. my word. -- tom: my word. romaine: a lot of the chinese gaming stocks listed in the u.s. are down significantly on the day. pretty much across the board. weakness there as well in the u.s. gaming stocks like activision and take two. tom: this is a crisis of the

highest level. look at minecraft and the ability to get to the new levels, you can't do that. romaine: don't say that, my son is still playing minecraft now. tom: thank you for the gloomy pendulum on the minecraft news today. martin schumacher has essentially seen it all. the global head of macro strategy is trying to synthesize it all and i love your economic team and what they said in the recent days, we have to dovetail confidence and sentiment and i would suggest we have to do that in the markets as well. how do you synthesize confidence and sentiment into awesome? >> when you think about the range of forecast for the upcoming payroll, it's huge, 700,000. to put it into context, 2019, the average range was 150,000,

so once again the people are still kind of groping around with a strong conviction in terms of where the numbers come out and i suspect that is going to require another month or two before there is a lot more confidence on the economic side. translated into the markets, what does it mean? yields low, volatility high. equity, i will leave that to the equity rose, but they seem to be doing well and i suspect it's a month or two. tom: where is the irrational exuberance right now? price the real yields, you know the story. equity markets, so strong on friday. how do you gauge the irrational exuberance? >> it's funny, when you think about the tried and true fed model, looking at that when you think about the ratio of earnings to price minus treasury

yields or the corporate bond index yield, it's actually pretty fair. a couple of hundred basis points , telling you that markets are not irrationally exuberant. perhaps yields are too low and that's the point of quantitative easing where they sit on the yield curve like a big goliath and until they get off, markets are in a happy place. lisa: that's exactly right wanted to go. goliath will get off, right? later than people expected but slower than people previously thought. but it's going to happen. bond markets shrugged and real yields went even more negative. how do you understand that? >> chairman powell said that we would get off eventually but not yet, giving markets a couple of months of runway. thinking about the calendar from the fed perspective, and on most learning they will taper at the fomc meeting. there aren't many left this

year. and then you got november 3. that could happen and it coincides with the debt ceiling. it may get knocked out as well. there aren't too many opportunities left for the fed in the market look at it and set all right, we have got a couple of more months, sounds good, let's rally. taylor: i remember back in the day the fed would be dovish and the explanation was that if they stay for longer, it meant longer-term growth but we are not seeing that anymore, we have the yield curve flattening and i don't understand it. can you help me? >> it's been completely strange and after a few cycles, counterintuitive. but the one thing they are focusing on is tapering. any hint that it's going to be more distant tends to be bullish with tapering coming a bit nearer and yields coming back up

. but we got from the chairman there is that it will happen sometime soon with yields dropping a bit and it has all hinged on tapering. taylor: interesting. 160 to 190, is the path moved? >> probably not. you can see just a bit of an upset in the yield for the next month or two and then i think you will see much more of that later this year, perhaps mid-november through the end of the year. i wouldn't be surprised if during that time the yield rises . not much until then but then quite a bit towards the end. taylor: speaking of, what is a negative real yield of more than 1% on the 10 year telling you? >> the market is giving us very little perspective economic return if you want to think about it that way. long-term holders on the treasury that want to purchase a

security, what do i expect to earn? you lose money. there's very little motivation for long-term players to be in treasuries. we always think of treasuries is adding a balance to portfolios where the standpoint is good for the professional investor, but for a longer-term retail holder investor that might be watching your show or listening, it's not the right time. tom: mike schumacher, thank you so much. i love the idea of the big goliath in you wonder, do we overemphasize big goliath at our peril? lisa: it has been the theme but the idea that you can push it back in and people take it in relief without pricing it in is not market behavior. typically people bring forward the potential ramifications. that's why it's so strange that people knowing that it's going to taper, they don't seem to think that goliath taking a

thumb off the market will have an impact at all, which is what we were hearing earlier on the show. tom: 12 months trailing, the nasdaq composite, up 29%. i'm afraid. taylor: i hate to say it, how do you buy bonds after inflation where you lose money and it pushes everyone into these risk assets. talking about the big goliath, i wonder how much of that is foreign investors. the u.s., one of the best options seen in the career given the massive foreign buying that has spiked. tom: taylor riggs, lobbying to be on the show permanently. lisa, top on those options -- touch on those options. lisa: just want to give you that tip. he immediately shuts down when

you start talking about bond options. [laughter] lisa: you nailed it. i think that this really is one of the biggest issues. the fact that it is an international market and internationally you are not getting out for a long time. that said, how much does it open the door to the other for -- central banks? taylor: it's still -30 points on the german bond, tom. tom: you notice i can't get a word in edge wise? taylor: you don't care about the option. tom: was there one this week? taylor: why don't you care? tom: i'm worried about the 100 year for austria. coming up jeffrey lacher will join us, formerly with the richmond fed. this is bloomberg. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it's your first word news.

new orleans is in the dark and large sections may be without power for weeks. the city was pounded on the coast with heavy rain and powerful winds. more than one million homes and businesses are without activity. potentially a catastrophic amount of rain. it's an imminent threat at the airport hours before a suicide bombing took lace and according to politico, they were told to prepare for a mass casualty attack. lloyd austin was quoted as saying that he believed there was an incredible amount of risk on the ground with almost 200 people, including 13 u.s. service members. anthony fauci said that the door is open to administering a booster shot and eight months after they completed coronavirus vaccination he told the administration that they would base their decision on the data

regarding shots for schoolchildren. resolving a sexual assault case that has walloped the tech establishment in china, 10 staffers have been fined for the allegations against a former manager, where they said the handling of the complaint was humiliation. speaking of medical equipment, according to dow jones it was $10 billion a month ago and among the anti-baxter's, $9.6 million. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

>> the only difficulty would be we started to get seriously worried about inflation data in

the strength of the economy at the same time they are tapering and then the bond market struggles, catching us where we are. it's really easy to taper where the yield goes up. tom: got that opening statement they are here in the final week of august. it's supposed to be morning but it's not. the hallmark of the week is the early jobs report on friday and right now on the mystery of three, four, frankly in the summer of next year we are already planning, lisa, seriously important here is the use of cash in the stock market. david wilson considers dividends. >> it's something they tracked over from that strategy there. what they did was take a look at the exchange trader funds tracking various stock indexes to see where the dividend yield is now relative to 20 before the pandemic kicked in.

a lot of companies cut or eliminated payouts. tom: but the prices as well. >> absolutely there are two sides to the asian but he's basically saying that if you look at the s&p 500, focusing on the ishares, if you look at that one that tracks the s&p 500, dividend yield of roughly 1.3%, a couple of years back it was one point or percent and it wasn't far to go to get back to where it was historically. looking around the world it's a wider gap that's especially true in emerging markets. the chinese company's biggest piece of the index was already powered and it isn't yet what it was a couple of weeks ago. tom: does cash flow give us sustained dividend increases? >> it looks that way when you look at companies, earnings are up

with anticipation of further growth in the third in fourth quarters and companies piled up a lot of cash, selling shares or raising money in the bond market. now that business is a bit more normal for a lot of them, well they don't necessarily need all the cash and they have room to pay back the shareholders. tom: so important to me here are the dividends that are codified, with an easy route being sharing context, right? lisa: which is exactly what i was going to ask. just because they have the cash to increase dividends doesn't mean they will and i wonder how much they have to cater to stock investors looking at stock as the new bonds, who are looking for a fixed payment as a way to get in and be rewarded for dividends above a stock buyback. >> it looks that way at this point. consider what's going on with

the achievers. there you are talking about the aristocrats, i should say, who have been raising payouts for 25 years or more. they have beaten the s&p 500 for the last couple of years and you can see that there is at least some reward for delivering cashback. i've asked, you could argue, are more flexible, so if a company isn't necessarily sure how things will pan out over time, they might rely more on buybacks , but dividends are a part of the mix and when you think about bondholders and stocks being the new bond, you will want that kind of payout to justify, you know, making the move into equities and turning their for income. taylor: what do you make of the flirtation between equities and bonds when you have a 10 year yield that is at 1.31%?

>> bear in mind that they have more room for capital appreciation in their favor. that said, if you are not necessarily getting more income in these, it is perhaps an incentive to go with a relatively safe payout at least in the bond market, and it's not necessarily relatively safe in terms of where rice's go over time but having that dividend and earned interest payment i would say really kinds of pays off for some investors. lisa: 53rd, 54th record high today? with continuing the men to him despite the fact that we are likely going to get a taper later this year? throughout the show there seems to be disagreement among those who have come on about whether it matters and if the fed starts tapering, equity analysts saying that they have to track it is much as bond users right now,

what's the ramifications starting the taper, even if it is later this year or early next? >> it's hard to get a read on, a number of firms reading towards year-end with 5000 becoming a popular number in some orders. does the timing taper? does that matter in terms of how things unfold? going back to october, the last time you saw the s&p 500 pull back that far from a high, there is still confidence that is are still moving forward and earnings will keep moving on. tom: different tones there from different strategists, john reaffirming the optimism today and lisa i think we really neglected bonds. 131 on the 10 year yield just

haven't driven back down. lisa: i'm just still laughing about your bold call in terms of 4500 today. one thing that he was also talking about in his notes -- tom: it's that triple leverage ditch. [laughter] lisa: entry point? yet, not yet? tom: limit order for the 5000. lisa: getting there. [laughter] talking about the bond market, the bond sector was selling off a bit over the past few weeks and basically people took note of this and said it was a precursor to something more, stemming from the delta variant and lower oil prices or concerns that earnings would have to power through the market and slow down. at least in terms of the pace of gains. these are all legitimate questions but they were all basically stamped out when the

fed came roaring back. tom: seriously, meme stocks, do we care? taylor: not today. trying to get to tomorrow. tom: people on the couch taking the month off? taylor: can i go back to bond yields and spreads? you don't ask, you do. i'm going back to spreads, tom. i know we love meme stock, but lisa makes a good point, ingressive -- investment grade spreads have been rising since 2013 and everyone called it a buying opportunity for the biggest outperform or. buying opportunities taking a look at spreads, i think we are on high yield and 294 is the downpour. we could also do memes. gamestop to the moon? tom: taking over the show.

have another decaf tea. i did a lot of research. decaf chai tea. i thought it was a fraternity. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

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>> we are seeing some headwind from the delta variant, but still, consumers are spending. >> we do not have a handle on the pace of job creation here we just guess. >> we know tapering is m&f little -- we know tapering is inevitable. >> the fed is a little more dovish. >> corporations are dealing with how to morph they have learned how to raise prices. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. taylor: