>> we are seeing some headwind from the delta variant, but still, consumers are spending. >> we do not have a handle on the pace of job creation here we just guess. >> we know tapering is m&f little -- we know tapering is inevitable. >> the fed is a little more dovish. >> corporations are dealing with how to morph they have learned how to raise prices. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. taylor: pivotal payrolls friday.

this "bloomberg surveillance is "bloomberg surveillance" -- jon ferro is off and taylor riggs is being so kind to put up with us. this will be the most important jobs report ever we get friday. tom: we should get more a bond talk, which we will have in 15 minutes. important conversation for global wall street. no, i do not think it is. it is important with 10% on implement rate, it was important in the early months off a horrific pandemic, but what it is is an unemployment rate which will allow everyone to recalibrate. lisa: recalibrate and, in particular, for the fed to reserve pb were anticipating a jackson hole meeting that was not's newsworthy, but it seems the market do think it was newsworthy. but what is important for international markets, if you're looking at international tensions, a hurricane, the potential for wide-ranging

figures friday -- what our markets looking for? tom: the september 22 fed meeting. and i've said this from the get go -- i get there is a focus on it, but i am way more focused on the labor economy and the lack of wage inflation off the november 3, december 15, and late january meeting next year. lisa: what happened to this idea that tapering bond purchases would and up taking steam out of stocks? taylor: yeah, really interesting that i think stocks can go higher because the 10 year yield, if we are thinking basic cash flow rate is pushing equities higher peer but i keep hearing is we are nowhere near the levels of yields rising and that turning into being a headwind for equities. you have to be a lot higher on yield for there to be any headwind on the discount rate on yields. lisa: i just wonder, will everyone be off heading for vacation at 8:30 five, right after the jobs report friday?

tom: i am glad you bring that up here the tradition for any jobs report friday is it is out, boom, we are done. this time around, i think there's so much tumult that they may head out the door mentally, but everybody is going to be glued to their cell phone, and frankly, their history is that is where you get a bid to equities. lisa: i think they will already be at the beach, working remote anyways. tom: just revolutionized bloomberg -- i am working a full hour work week because i have the bloomberg terminal on my cell phone. lisa: 12 hour workweek? tom: it used to be 15, but i was able to cut it back three hours. [laughter] lisa: looking at market action, headed for our 53rd record high in the s&p. help us out -- the idea that we are heading with 45 point --

45.12 now. taylor: and the pressure is the push-pull, seeing tech lead the rally heading into year end. then lo and behold, the last 10 minutes, you open the inbox to see kaiser and ubs saying you could use the jobs friday as a buying opportunity, just do not forget the september seasonality is very weak. -- tom: riggs channeling abramowitz on the pendulum of gloom. futures at 6, and improvement in this hour. up 35 points. not all small caps leading the way it, actually, i stand corrected. the vix 16.56 off that terrific friday.

the 10 year yield 1.31%. 2's/10's at 1.09. lisa: right now, we are looking at the bond space. it seems the interconnectedness of bonds and stocks are getting closer and closer. matt miller knows it. he has been in the market a very long time. maybe you can ask him why auctions matter. tom: we will talk about options. matt bill joins us now and i want to go to your wheelhouse. ig is about cheap financial officers turning to their ceo's and saying "do this." what are cfos saying to ceo's into september, october, and november? issuance will be nuts, isn't it? >> you hearing from ceo's,

saying do not miss the opportunity to add it low interest rates. they are basically saying tap the market, anything at two or three years, by that back if you can, issue 10, 30, 40 year bonds. tom: i know you want to go to auctions, and i am trying to delay it as long as i can. microsoft has a debt weight of 3.9%. they are just overweighted in debt. [laughter] lisa: it is comical there. not overweighted in debt. hans mickelson at bank of america noted that the debt load of s&p 500 companies is the lowest it has been in years relative to the equity valuation , basically suggesting they could sell a lot more debt and keep that ratio at par. is that a bullish signal or perhaps a sign that equity valuations has gotten way ahead of where companies are at in terms of what they could use their money for? matt: in general, we kind of

look at things versus cash flow. versus cash flow, debt loads look reasonable. versus cash flow, companies are paired down debt -- pared down debt and grow out of it. the way we always look at thing is come in the worst case scenario, please could issue more equity to pay down debt, so that is good they have equity valuations are much bigger now. we do not expect them to do that. they will do the opposite, probably, borrow more to grow into that. but all in all, these companies are making a lot more money than they did in 2019 so they can take on more debt. taylor: what is the environment telling you, that the minute you get a little bit of spread widening, buyers come and we migrate back down to just 88 basis points over treasuries on your investment grade spreads. matt: the market is telling you to buy the dip. we are going to see a lot of issuance out of corporations, so

we wanted to have dry powder to take advantage of the recent selloff. in the last few days, it also the reverse itself, so we do not even have a chance to take advantage of it as much as we would have liked to. it tells you there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, triple levered cash and things like that. tom: there we go, thank you. matt: there turn to get out of that, forcing them to buy more investment grade, was invented by more yield, then after that, more equities. it is all a domino effect. at the end of the day, he tells you there's a lot of cash that needs to find a place in the market. that is what it will be hard to see significant selloff. lisa: has the fed killed the credit cycle? matt: they have certainly extended it. at some point down the road, we, as investors, or hopefully our competitors will do something silly to get them thousand trouble, but the fed has told you that they will --

powell was telling you that he has the markets' back and he will be as diverse as possible. from that regard, i think the credit cycle is a very long one. taylor: all equity guys are trying to become bond strategists now. what are the equity guys on their desks next to you asking you? what do they want to know? matt: they honestly want to know business tangible? is this just because the fed? is this real, meaning is it real buyers are only the fed? so if the fed pulls away, does that mean there is nobody left buying bonds? we say no p we wake up every single day, just about, with anemia from japan, saying here is how much we want to buy from the u.s. investment grade market today. we get investments, mainly from japan, broad right now he of the bid will not go away once the fed stops. that is a comforting thing for the equity managers that it not

just the fed buying. there is a whole wave of money. they are not the only buyer and there are a lot of big purchases that will keep the market floating no matter what. tom: hugely valuable. matt brill, thank you so much. lisa, bringing up overnight repo as one measurement of liquidity out there. i guess i constructively say it is that it sustains at 1.1 trillion dollars. for that to break out to 1.2 trillion dollars would be another indicator of the wall of money out there. lisa: and it is coming from everywhere. just to get more cash into this ball that rose from one place to another, china is expected to cut rates again later this year, injecting more liquid today overnight. the idea this had been one economy, a major economy, that was sort of trying to tighten or reduce the credit impulse, having reversed just shows you how much this wall of money will perpetuate itself for the foreseeable future. tom: taylor, friday afternoon,

to go back, as you are squeezing in a few more hours, friday afternoon was a unique equity market. there was not a bid to it. taylor: indeed, there is a bit. you are seeing a lot of these numbers -- i know in the media, that is all we talk about, but it is a migration higher. dave wilson had a good point that when you talk about the breath and sighed -- breadth and size and scope, the movement of the 50 day average not as high as it was a month ago. tom: we have done better in the last hour. futures up 6. dow futures up 28. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. hurricane ida battered new orleans and the louisiana coast

with heavy rain and some of the strongest winds ever to hit the state. the storm has lost some of its strength, but it is released to -- expect it to release a potentially catastrophic amount of rain as it moves north. some homes may stay without powder -- power for weeks. jake's elemental fox news two members killed in an airstrike friday had been planning additional tax against the u.s. the president was at dover airport base for the arrival of 13 servicemember's killed last week in afghanistan. they were at the airport in kabul when a suicide bomber struck. the united nations says north korea may have resumed operations at its plutonium producing nuclear reactor in recent months that could help kim jong-un's resume add to the stockpile of material needed to make nuclear weapons.

north korea has used uranium enrichment for nuclear warheads. in china, regulators are cracking down on the gaming industry. the new rules are said to protect minor' -- minors' physical health. toyota is planning to cut production by 40% in september due to parts shortages. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪

>> we believe that we are down

to a population of 300 or fewer american citizens who have yet to get out. we have evacuated more than 5000. we evacuated more than 300 just yesterday. we believe there is still an opportunity for american citizens to get to the airport, get on planes, and get home. tom: jake sullivan, u.s. national security adviser, on cnn this weekend, managing the message for the weekend. annmarie hordern in washington makes clear it will be an eventful morning for the white house, and it is a street as to what august 31 actually means on this 30th of august. taylor riggs and for jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. joining us now, peter trubowitz, with all his good work over the years at the university of texas at austin. we talk to afghan experts, i want to talk to you about united states experts. i go back to your landmark, politics and strategy. do we have a strategy and

foreign policy that gets us out to 2023, a year before our next election? prof. trubowitz: it is good to be with you pete i would say we have the beginnings of a strategy. really what has been going on, for well over 10 years, in the united states is the process of readjusting strategically. internationally what that means is moving more of its energy, time, assets to east asia. domestically, i think the principal challenge that has dogged three administrations is rebuilding or renewing the social contract, which has really been badly damaged by the country's failure to keep international openness and social protection in balance. this is the challenge. afghanistan does not really change that. but i think it kind of draws our attention to it, in a kind of

more focused way. as we wind down this chapter and hopefully the united states begins a new one. tom: i look at a new strategy, and it seems to be all the ghosts, the looking back -- we look back one year, we look back two decades, we look back three wars. which are you looking back to to find perspective? prof. trubowitz: i am not actually looking back at wars. what i think about is i really do think we are in a period where the national interest is being redefined, and it is not being done in the news cycle, it is been done over an extended period of time. i look back at periods, for the historians out there, like the 1890's and 1920's, 1940's,

1970's, where the united states readjusted, recalibrated, changed the balance between international and domestic interests. that is why i think we are in the middle of, anything it is very hard to see. you have to be able to bracket it, step outside of it, get some distance. looking at it from 10,000 feet rather than from 100 feet. when you are in the middle of something like what is going on in afghanistan right now, it is very hard to see that, but i do think that is what biden wants and is trying to get out and he is having trouble. lisa: that is what i wanted to go. right now, we are looking at an agenda in washington, d.c. that it is almost solidly afghanistan. the political shows are all afghanistan at a time we are heading up to the debt ceiling debate, heading up to this question about infrastructure and getting it passed. did this just a compass the opposite? prof. trubowitz: yes, that is

the great irony in all of this. one of the reasons that biden was so keen to get out of afghanistan was to focus more attention on domestic problems. and the messy, costly withdrawal from afghanistan has basically only increased the political risks at failing to deliver on that front, and the difficulties of getting it done, because he is now open and vulnerable to attacks over afghanistan. you heard it yesterday, people calling for impeachment. lindsey graham calling for impeachment of joe biden. and we will hear more of that in the coming days. taylor: professor, are our allies rethinking our commitment to them? i taiwan specifically in mind -- i have taiwan specifically in mind. prof. trubowitz: i think that is going on, although it is mostly on my side of the atlantic. over here, i do not mean only the u.k. but also europe. there are a lot of people very

pissed off about not being sufficiently consulted about the operations with respect to withdrawal. i hear much less of it from our allies in east asia. why is that the case? i think it is because they know the goal behind this, at least international goal, is to shift the focus to east asia, to china and more broadly. and that is a concern on the side of the atlantic, in the european theater. lisa: are we actually going to see the u.s. remove involvement from that region or are these drone attacks we see going to be ongoing, and then they need to put more personnel on the ground to get more intelligence, then all of a sudden, did we really get out in the first place? prof. trubowitz: you know, who knows, but i think we will see now, because of the terrorist strike that killed u.s. servicemen and women, we are going to see the biden

administration invest more time and energy in this here they really cannot afford to see this kind of thing happen. it really cannot happen on their watch. whether or not it can be done over the horizon, that is with drones and some special forces, i think that is the goal. i do not think there is a huge push anywhere for more boots on the ground, the time, with nationbuilding. the united states, american people -- when you look at the polls, they are pissed off about how the withdrawal was handled, but they are not upset about getting out of afghanistan. tom: thank you so much. peter trubowitz from the london school of economics, professor of international relations there. these are really difficult conversations. lisa: the idea he was illuminating, that we are looking at a president who wants to shift the focus back to the domestic agenda and withdraw focus from the international agenda did the last -- exact opposite over the last two

weeks, and this will be a political misstep a lot of people will be talking about -- to what degree could have been avoided? tom: we have it on the "bloomberg surveillance" twitter feed. taylor, we got a bid to the markets. i do not know what else to say about it. maybe it is europeans this morning. taylor: we can always find blame where blame is due, but indeed we can call it a migrate northward if we want, really coming off strong buying off the end of last week. we know if the fed tapers, there is a big disconnect between that and lift off. you are seeing decent bidding to the market. 53, record highs if today holds. it is unbelievable how quickly we have come. as we have been talking all morning, the strategists are something to keep up. tom: the s&p 500 on futures, up 3.8% off the bottom of august 19. that's a wow move, to say the

least. coming up, michael mckee providing leadership come has talked to every other president -- you will need to talk to more fed presidents. we went out and got a former fed president to keep mckee happy. ♪

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tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance. thank you for being with us. looking forward to the jobs report friday. looking at the equity market, a big selloff friday. futures up 11, the bond market not giving us much today. the euro, 1.18 gets my attention. it was an extraordinary surveillance friday with jackson hole, from michael mckee with weeks of planning speaking to different presidents, the geography of this nation as we struggle with our worries, may be the focus on the chairman's speech and paper is about -- and

taper as well. we focus on the richmond fed, one of my favorites, with the wonderful tom humphreys on the history of our economy. it has had wonderful leadership, including under jeffrey lacker, the former richmond fed president, who joins us now. it is a different fed, isn't it? michael: it is. it is a different economy. we have learned a lot. jeff, you have expressed reservations about this new policy of letting the economy run hot until we average inflation, because you have expressed concern that that could unmoor inflation expectations. do you think the fed and in particular jay powell with the last couple weeks may be put those concerns to rest by emphasizing that the fed will

stay focused on inflation? dr. lacker: somewhat, but i think the fed is in a tough spot. the dangers that they face from this inflation surge -- they have inflation, on a six-month basis, higher than it has been since 1983. the danger is that that persists. ron kaplan was talking friday about the extent to which businesses were reporting that they expect supply constraints to continue, but beyond that, getting embedded in inflation expectations and that is the real key risk the fed is running these days, so i was glad to see that powell addressed that in his remarks on friday. he has done that elsewhere as well, trying to assure the public that, yes, if inflation persists at a high level, we have the tools to do with that, but it is somewhat like -- i

have likened it to, you know, a doctor telling you you have gangrene your leg and, don't worry, we have the tools to deal with it, but the tools are the imputation kid and they include a big saw. what we went through in the 1980's to get inflation down was exceptionally painful and that is what motivated us to advocate a more preemptive policy. if the fed -- the fed moved away from that in its strategy statement last year. the risk it runs is that shift last year's akin to going off breton woods and gives people the license to think there's a new machine in place. michael: one of the papers presented on friday jackson hole suggested that the rates to be

neutral are lower than they have been. can the fed raise rates and cut off inflation without sending the economy into recession? dr. lacker: they very clearly can, and more to the point, they can nudge up the expected policy path, you know, in the coming year. i will expect they will have to do that to keep inflation expectations contained. they have the tools to combat it. they are blunt. we have not used them in a long time but i think the fed has the tools to do it. michael: let me put it this way. can they go back to jaw, jaw? to paraphrase winston churchill. job own the economy into -- jawbone the economy into place? dr. lacker: in the 1970's, the fed loudly proclaimed its

opposition to inflation and its desire to have it be lower, it just did not take the actions to back that up until voelker and 1980 -- voelker in 1980 and 1981 allowed rates to rise. tom: good morning to you. you mentioned the preemptive nature of a theory. -- a cause for concern over inflation, the whole open market committee, what we saw out of carnegie mellon as well. where did the inflationistas get it wrong on your watch? dr. lacker: the stability of inflation expectations coming out of the recession was a bit of a surprise. they were a bit more strongly-anchored than i and several others expected, so the upside risk of inflation did not emerge.

i point out at the same time that inflation doves were also -- also missed it, predicted a dramatic sag in inflation. tom: but this came up last week and is a critical question in defense of the inflationistas. the reason we did not see inflation is we just moved the inflationary impulse into increased asset allocation and an asset balance sheet in equities, real estate, all the summer properties mike mckee cannot afford. dr. lacker: sorry about that, mike. i think what people lost sight of with the increase in the fed's balance sheet is that the monetary liability, reabsorbed by a tremendously large demand for liquid assets by the banking system driven by the bank's

natural reaction to what happened in 2008, but also regulatory impetus provided for them to hold larger liquid buffers, and that means the demand for money is essentially flat. we could increase the money supply a lot until we start forcing banks to hold more liquidity than they want. we are a ways away from that. the balance sheet was not doing much for the economy. lisa: on the flipside of the inflation debate is the employment picture. we will get a read on that friday. if you are still at the fed, what would you be looking at to determine how flat were tight the labor market really is? dr. lacker: great question. we have all these debates about what maximum employment meant or what that number was. it is really a long run, long horizon kind of thing. after all the allocation has occurred, after all the matching that has to go on between people

looking for another job, what kind of career is it going to be -- i want a different occupation, i don't want to be at a restaurant anymore -- and firms looking for the skills that i need. after that process plays out, maximum employment might be the lower unemployment rate, but that takes time, and maximum employment in september of 2021 is close to where we are now. we are closed to september 2021 -- we are close to september 2021 maximum employment. we cannot get it much above what it will be in september. we have to keep in mind the dynamic process in which labor markets heal. recent research by bob hall in that regard is painting a different picture of the labor markets. the unemployment rate is shooting up at -- the

employment rate is shooting up and a recession coming down, but you know, it looks like it comes down at the same pace every expansion. michael: you were very much in inflationista when you were on the board, and i wonder if you are seeing what the current fed seems to be arguing, that inflation dynamics have changed, and there is, as jay powell said on friday, a natural dis inflation in the global economy. dr. lacker: i am not sure i buy it. people have been increasing the weight they place on inflation expectations and inflation dynamics over the last couple of decades. i know, in the early 2000's, people thought it was all a backward looking process. the important thing to remember, the thing people neglect about inflation expectations, people talk about it as if it is some exactness, external -- is some

exogenous, external force of nature. it is really an expectation of what the fed will do in the near future. so when you look at inflation expectations, that is the credibility of the fed, and that can change. the process by which that shifts and changes over time is not one that is deeply, deeply understood. tom: jeffrey lacker, thank you, former president of the richmond fed. mike, quickly, this is huge, the idea of the impulse of our system to higher prices or to go through assets to higher prices. michael: we don't know the mechanism at this point. they think they know and it is a gamble. tom: jackson hole, your wrap up? michael: interesting. powell obviously laid things out for the markets and the markets

seem to have accepted his timetable, which is good, no disruptions, but there were interesting papers, some concerns that -- is significantly lower and also that income inequality may have driven some of the slow down in the economy as opposed to the other way around. tom: lisa, that is interesting, isn't it? lisa: yes. we will continue that conversation. joanne feeney is joining us. it is a fascinating market and markets are taking everything jay powell said so in stride. is he taking a victory lap or is he holding his breath? tom: we continue. stay with us this week. on friday, jobs. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> new orleans is in the dark

and large parts may stay without power for weeks. hurricane ida pounded the city and the louisiana coast with heavy rain and some of the strongest wind to ever hit the state. more than one million homes and businesses without electricity. it is expected to release a potentially catastrophic amount of rain as it moves north. reported imminent threat at the kabul airport just hours after the bombing took place according to politico. they were told to prepare for a mass casualty attack. -- secretary said he did not believe people were getting the amount of risk on the ground. the attack killed 200 people, including 13 u.s. service members. -- the company's electric car startup says mass production and vehicles -- production and vehicles may be delayed --

announcing they will hold a briefing after their earnings tomorrow. a sexual assault case has rocked china's market -- talks of medical equipment make it -- according to dow jones, the price will be about $10 billion. 10 months ago, it was rejected . global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> at the fomc's recent july meeting, i was of the view, as

were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as into submitted, it could be appropriate to reduce the pace of asset purchases this year. tom: that was the chairman of the federal reserve. you just heard mike mckee speaking with jeffrey lacker, former president of the richmond fed on the path forward after this jackson hole. it will be interesting, the meeting on september 22 is the next hallmark for the fed. taylor riggs is in for jon ferro. a 9:00 presentation. interesting markets with a little bit of taper improvement. we will see how that goes. on the hurricane, hurricane ida, we will talk about refineries, including baton rouge, 1909, a refinery of ginormous size. i am hoping the rain goes

over to tampa bay and cancels four games of the red sox. not going to happen. a lot of damage. >> it is heading to you, in fact, in a couple days. there's a lot of power outages, especially in new orleans, but the levees seem to be holding. outside the city, there has been massive flooding from overtopped levees, but right now, as the sun is coming up and people are assessing the damage, we are trying to get a handle on how bad the storm is, and as is always the case with these, it takes a couple days to figure things out. tom: we don't understand this. the scope and scale of exxon baton rouge. these refineries are giant norm -- are enormous, our day? brian: you think you are looking at a skyline, but you are not,

it is the refineries. taylor: continue about what we can learn given years past, the impact on gas, on energy markets of hurricanes. brian: in 2008, gustav and ike went through this area. gasoline prices, especially across the u.s., jumped quite a bit, and there's a possibility this might happen again. this hurricane, the eye wall, the strongest winds of this hurricane went over the terminal just offshore and over three major refineries as it moved up into louisiana, so those facilities probably suffered some damage, maybe a lot of damage, and, younow, there's tertiary damage all the way up what they call the ruhr of america. taylor: it is interesting.

when we think about the flooding, the rain, about assessing the damage in the coming days, what to you is going to be the most severe? brian: a major loss of life or some kind of massive infrastructure collapse, which is still possible. the big story here is going to be the economic impact on the energy markets and the u.s. economy as a whole. there is inflation pressure on the economy now and that is going to get worse if gas police and prices go up by dollars at the pump. tom: is that your prediction? brian, i do not want to pin you down and get you in trouble, but could we get five dollars a gallon gas? brian: it happened last time so i do not think it is out of the question. regional shortages drove prices up across the u.s. here in the u.s., we were spared

mainly because of the facilities in new jersey, but across the south, they saw five dollars, six dollars a gallon. tom: i thought it was one price. is there really a regional difference in the price of a gallon of gas? brian: it has happened before so i suspect it could happen again. and it was mainly because of shortages. they were just not getting the product to the gas station, so it became a premium. taylor: a big question as you think about infrastructure. the big investments after katrina, as you said, for now the levees holding up. does it become more urgent given that we think more hurricanes of our on the way -- think more hurricanes are on the way? brian: the oceans are rising quite rapidly they are compared to some of the country. the storms that are coming are much stronger, you know? this storm here set a record as

the strongest to hit louisiana since 1851. last year, another storm set that same record, tied that record, but that record had been set originally in 1856, so between 1856 and 2020, there had not been a storm that strong and now we have had two in two years. tom: because we have warmer waters? brian: warmer water is part of it. it is like gasoline into an engine. the water in the gulf of mexico right now is between 85 and 90 degrees. you would not even want to swim in it. tom: i would not. brian, thank you. me in my swimsuit at the gulf of mexico. brian, really the expert. we make jokes about it, taylor, but i remember at least a decade

ago talking to a guy from m.i.t. who said watch the gulf of mexico. taylor: do not even get me started on california, where we have fires and droughts and you name it. we cannot even get water. it is certainly not regional exclusively to the gulf. tom: kevin mccarthy may be speaker of the house here with a republican majority, and that goes, taylor, to the idea of water in california, as big a deal as water in louisiana. taylor: tom, water is the only commodity we are not pricing in the markets. i cannot figure it out. a huge debate in california. tom: i have studied it and studied it. we have done three years on this, and it is truly a great, great mystery, the pricing, the microeconomics, we should say the price theory of water.

taylor, we will have you back tomorrow. tom: dow futures up 20. stay with us for an important conversation with the gentleman from stamford, michael baskin, at the 12:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

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taylor: a meandering market to start the week as we have a post fed assessment. from new york city to our

viewers worldwide, i am alisa and for jonathan -- lisa in for jonathan ferro. >> everything you need to get start for the -- get set for the start of u.s. training. this is the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: we begin with the big issue, chairman powell's dovish taper. >> powell has been saying he is going to give advance notice. >> it seems the august report is going to be key. >> advance notice probably comes in september. >> that is going to depend on the data we get in the next month. >> kind of felt the fed were trying to avoid flattening at the long end of the curve.