♪ >> policy for the most part looks like it is going to be somewhat benign. there's no fears of paper, either from the ecb -- of taper, either from the ecb or the fed. >> i think they will announce taper in december and start in january. >> we know for a fact every time some the goes wrong, they come back with even more policy stimulus. >> there is a serious debate going on, and they have agreed to disagree on taper -- to disagree until december.

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an interesting monday here. we are in the midst of a massive five day drawdown. the gloom over the weekend on the equity markets. i want to go to lori calvasina at rbc capital markets, whose has no. jonathan: an upgrade of -- who says no. jonathan: an upgrade of 4500 this year, that is a view many people share. but next year, they can go really right or really wrong. this was ethan harris of bank of america. "wages will get hotter." then the fed has got a problem. tom: in the short term, that is the disease of the media, we go to one hour, one day, etc. chris verrone i thought somewhat tentative at strategic on the idea, look at the close right now. jonathan: to his point, we had the big cyclical leg of the rally from december last year through to the end of march.

he's talking about repositioning, re--- re-levering up from november of last year. that's the debate. tom: 8000 shares off the map for amc. ferro is going to see a large capital gains tax on that gain. lisa: may, although that has ratcheted act dramatically. we are getting a sense that president biden's wish for higher taxes has gotten steeply ratcheted back. yes, the corporate tax rate might go up to 26.5% under the latest proposition. capital gains tax might go up to 25%, but it is a far cry from the increase. that could be a headwind to the whole rally, higher taxes. are we getting some kind of capitulation on that from washington? tom: are we going to see a cfo frenzy to issue debt this week?

lisa: it still is an incredible time for them to issue, so yes, but yields are low. i wonder about the consequent as of that. airlines have more than $340 billion of debt. they have increased 24% over the past year. what does that do for growth? what does that do for their ability to withstand a slow down when they have to pay down all that debt? tom: there you go with the gloom. jonathan: i think lisa raises an important point on this one. we got to have some strings attached this time around at the airlines. if they start going down the road of doing buybacks again, there's got to be a stronger message here. we talk about the bankers being too big to fail. the airlines employ some any people that when they get into trouble, the government is always there to help her get it is true in the united states. it is true in europe, too. you wonder if that is the path we are on all over again. tom: i can't find a seat. jonathan: where would you like to go to? tom: i don't know.

jonathan: we've got some time. tom: it will work out. let's look at the data right now. the dow up 201 points. what sticks out in the bloomberg terminal to you? jonathan: not much. that is the story, isn't it? i will see you tomorrow morning to talk about this bond market. cpi, 8:30 eastern, about 24 hours and 26 minutes away. tom: curve going nowhere. we need a brief on this. uncle kuchma -- michael ku shma joins of morgan stanley. what is the distinction you see right now when you look at the spread? what does it indicate? kallum: it in ash michael: -- michael: it indicates complacency in the market now. it hasn't changed for weeks and weeks, despite avalanches of supply.

we are complacent in a good sense that people are very comfortable with the forward-looking trajectory of things, but right now, complacent in the sense that we don't know how things are going to go, but the trajectory looks ok considering the underlying policy support which exists, and the lack of alternatives that investors have at the moment with regards to the levels of yields. jonathan: how comfortable do you think the federal reserve will be with their messaging for much of this year when we restart next year and reset? kallum: it is going -- michael: it is going to be interesting to see because i think the fed and other central banks are much more worried about downside risk. certainly the leadership is much more worried about downside risk than upside risk. when it comes to tapering, which we are going to get an announcement this year about, whether it is december or january -- this year about.

whether it is december or january that it starts, i don't forget matters. in the market psychology, no one believes it is going to be a big deal. the connection between tapering and rate hikes looks tenuous. they've done a good job of breaking that linkage for now. but we all know this is very data-dependent. if inflation turns out to be stronger than spec, supply-side distractions continue, and this continues the story that vice-chairman clarida talked about, that inflation may have already been achieved, and we need to raise rates next year. we will have to wait and see. but that dynamic of inflation trajectory versus inflation in the economy to reduce inflationary pressures remains the question. jonathan: let's get to your base case. this was the quote from bank of america's ethan harris. "if supply constraints ease,

wages will surge." why is the fed waiting? which samaria -- which scenario are you most comfortable with, supply constraints ease or stay where they are into next year? michael: i think they will ease, but the timeframe is off. there's some evidence of that in asia, that a goods producing sector, your goods are growing again. supply bottleneck change in chinese ports -- supply bottleneck chains in chinese ports will be easing. i think asia is the barometer of how this is perceived. i think it is optimistic that we are on the right trajectory, but we will have to wait and see. there's been a strong correlation in the last 18 months between covid infection rates and labor supply, so nonfarm production is weak when co-infection rates -- when covid infection rates are high. jonathan: there's a headline

crossing the bloomberg you might want to comment on. evergrand saying the rumors of bankruptcy are true. they say they are doing their best to return to normal operations. this with some process this morning reportedly over in china. lisa: this is coming as people discount the bonds by 75%. there's also been a question about the potential contagion from a bankruptcy of such a major property developer in china. how concerned are you about some sort of systemic issue either stemming from china or somewhere else, or perhaps regulatory pressures oversight is a little bit less rigorous than in the united states? michael: that has been an issue about china. china has not in an engine of global growth as of late. the sector has been worrisome in terms of growth trajectories for the economy. the challenge they have is punishing bad behavior in the

biased companies, and at the same time kamala in those project. letting the property sector -- at the same time, letting those projects continue. letting the property sector grow. i think they will manage it because state out enterprises are so heavily involved. there's ways in which they can inject while maintaining a reasonably strong underlying economy. jonathan: michael, thank you. how about this for a lead paragraph in our story on evergrand right now? "china evergrand group is facing pressure, raising the stakes for authorities in beijing as they try to prevent the property giant's debt crisis from sparking social unrest. that last point, you know that is toxic to this party, the communist party in china. tom: a carefully vetted article

by our team in beijing and across china as well. to put scope and scale on this, the mass buried in the story is 300 large plus 147 in trade and other payables large, it is on the edge of $500 billion. jonathan: they are huge numbers. we know that the chinese communist party, through history and experience, can tolerate volatility in financial markets. what they can't tolerate is the prospect of social unrest going along with that particular volatility in financial markets. lisa: especially because a lot of individuals have not into bonds and stocks through leveraged trades. how does this play out from a contagious expect as the chinese government tries to transform its economy into something more sustainable than it has been, which has been dribblin -- which has been driven by leverage. jonathan: we haven't seen this

outside china in a massive way. high-yield notes were pushing 13% last week. we talked to damian sassower were so much about that. we haven't seen the spillover from em into dm. i think that will be the change. right now we advancing 0.6%. tom: we started the morning with carl weinberg, and he is expert on this. china is not ecuador, not mexico. they've got their own rules. at some point, the government comes in and bails them out, even if it is under $400 billion, not $500 billion. jonathan: evergrand saying the rumors on bankruptcy are true. they are doing their best to return to normal operations. the s&p up 0.6%. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. bloomberg has learned house democrats are set to propose

raising the top corporate tax rate to 26.5 percent, less than what president biden was asking for to help pay for his 3.5 trillion dollar economic agenda. the rent rate is 21%. top rate on capital gains would rise from 20% to 25%, again less than what the president wanted. another sign north korea is trying to increase its capability for nuclear strikes against south korea and japan. kim jong-un's regime announced that it testfired a new model of long-range cruise missiles over the weekend, the first known missile test in north korea since march, days after north korea staged its immersed for literary -- its first military parade since joe biden became president. the foreign ministry says president biden should upholds the spirit of the phone call he had last week with president xi jinping come on a report that the u.s. was considering a new investigation into chinese industrial subsidies.

tote is looking to raise in an ipo that would value the company at about 16.5 lean dollars. -- $16.5 billion. bloomberg has learned that -- is ready to roll out a new strategy for china to take control after having disappointing demand in china. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think what the market is finally recognizing is something we have been talking about for a long time.

don't pick growth or value, or don't put the market -- don't pick the market opening or back on shut down. you have to have a collection of both. jonathan: that was wells fargo asset management's head of asset strategy. from new york city this morning, good morning. we should bring the commercial break edition of this program to life in the evening, after 9:00 or 10 a clock p.m. lisa: after the kids go to bed. jonathan: something like that. yields advancing 0.6 percent. crewed up 0.9%. goldman out this morning, jeff currie of goldman saying commodities surge on "growing scarcity." tom: you look at the litmus paper of the system, and it is not what folks like curnutt say.

lme says it all. we are making jokes about it, but i'm sorry, ritika gupta and jon ferro, destined to say aluminum and not apologize for it. should jonathan: be get to san francisco jonathan: -- jonathan: should we get to san francisco? francisco blanch, good to catch up. let's get to what is happening with aluminum. is this all supply scarcity? francisco: indeed, there is supply scarcity on a couple of different fronts. we had a coup d'etat in guinea, which has created some exciting -- some anxiety around an ingredient into aluminum, which in turn, we've had shortages

there, but more importantly, china helping curb aluminum supplies for most of the year because they are trying to rein in and become cleaner, and it has been a low rate year in china, part of the reason they have been trying to crack down on bitcoin. so it is filling the gap for that lack of hydropower. when you look at limited production in china, it is flat as a pancake. we have this liquidity in the system, and that is what is pushing prices higher. tom: i saw the london metals index. the bloomberg index shows metals as a group doing better. we know the commodity index has done better as well. does it signal a commodities breakout? can you call a bull market in commodities? tom: -- francisco: we had a bit

of a bull market already. we think commodities will keep going higher. but then oil on the other hand, it is sitting and waiting for the winter. that is where gas is around the world. but in broad terms, commodities are very strong because we have equity in the system. we have supply constraints. it is kind of a perfect cocktail for commodities to keep dragging higher. lisa: there was a note i believe your team put out, that you do see the potential for hundred dollar barrel -- for $100 a barrel oil. opec sees stronger demand for

crude this year and next, at the same time that non-opec out but is supposed to be down. this directly speaks to the shale patch. what is the tipping point at which we start to see supplies go up to meet the demand and regulate? francisco: i think right now we have a very short window into the future or get we are still in shorts and the northern hemisphere, but it is going to get very cold. i think natural gas is going to be very strong. and if it breaks out to $120 a barrel and we go another $10 higher which would put us at $180, i think that would take out the whole sector because people will look at cheaper sources for heating and power

generation. we see a very strong market in singapore for that reason. so when the winter gets cold, we will see the entire energy complex ripping higher. tom: what does this say about the emergence of the pacific rim? francisco: i think the pacific rim is definitely coming back. the one thing i would note is that one thing we have been tracking with a lot of interest is what is going on in the property sector in china, was evergrand coming down very hard. chinese new issue loans also slowing down materially over the last few months. that is one thing we keep a close eye on, but generally the asia pacific rim is definitely coming back with force. over the next six months, we will have a huge surge in vaccinations, will restart our problem. so we think $100 oil might be

next summer, when we all start playing internationally and a much greater way. otherwise, it may happen sooner if the winter turns very cold. jonathan: it is a triple digit crude price debate case -- price case case? francisco: we have a call for $100 oil next summer. if the winter is cold we could roll that out six months and may have at this winter. jonathan: wow. lisa: but again, oil is still benefiting from opec excess capacity, but we don't have the amount of shale available over a short window of time to meet that call if the weather gets cold. jonathan: just an amazing call. we want you to come back again soon so we can talk about that. francisco blanch of bank of

america. can you imagine $100 crude into 2022? tom: that is not in the market price. i don't see it within the zeitgeist at all. jonathan: haven't even talked about the politics. lisa: the idea of $100 barrel being a base case in the middle of next year, that does not read well, especially when people have other inflationary concerns you typically that is a no go for the incumbent. tom: it is really good to talk about lme metals as well because we've got lme metals week coming back in october. jonathan: oh wow, is it? tom: serious stuff. this will be at different venues around london, and everyone descends upon the dorchester bar . they put drinks in your producer. they have a number love. they scaled back. but all drinks that producers have have an umbrella in them at the dorchester bar. this has been researched. jonathan: i am not sure where

you're going with this. i think the three of us at lme metals come of the three of us in london. to see the tots. jonathan: wouldn't that be great? i'm sold. [laughter]

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jonathan: good morning. cpi tomorrow. retail sales later. next week a federal reserve decision. a bounce in the market this monday morning. five days of losses on the s&p. turning into a morning of gains. up 26 on the s&p. yields in one basis point on the 10 year to 1.3259. what they call from bank of america. $7.50 on wti. they are looking for triple digit crude. they think if we get a cold winter you could be seen triple digit crude six months sooner. tom: that folds into the german elections in the relationship with russia as well.

liz ann sonders of charles schwab joins us. we have been talking. we set get is a stones fan so they got us liz ann sonders. you saw them with 100,000 or so people. what was it like to see the stones in mr. watts prime? liz: it was 1981 jfk stadium and i was 17. it was epic. we managed to work our way up to the top rose. that was their heyday. tom: that is the important news you need this morning. on the market it is a five-day pullback. why will this market not go down? why is the bid always there? liz: it depends on what you mean by the market. all you have to do is peel back

the market onion layer to see we have a rotational correction where segments of the broad averages have had bigger pullbacks. you have a decent percent of the s&p that has had a more significant drawdown than a 10% correction. look at where the speculative froth has been most significant in pockets outside the traditional averages, whether it is spac or ipo or meme stocks or heavily shorted, the list goes on. you have had drawdowns of 30, 40 , 50, 70 or 80% in the case of some of the meme stocks. we have seen significant weakness masked by a benchmark index like the s&p continuing to do well because of the offset of one area doing well. jonathan: let's build on that if you can. what is brent telling you at the moment? liz: we did indeed the street

with more than 75% of the s&p above the 200 day moving average. you have seen these rolling your verse in terms of the 50 day moving average, the 200 day moving average. the last time that happened we bottomed at a weak level but then rebounded. what is key to look for is if sentiment stays frothy and you get a protracted deterioration in brent. that is what happened in 1999 to 2000 and with the benefit of hindsight we know that was a significant warning. we have seen improvement and we may be setting up a week like that. so far the deterioration has been fairly short-lived. much inconsistency with a rotational nature of the market. jonathan: lisa: one of the things you do so well is look at charts and historical patterns and try to get a sense of what they could mean for the future. i wonder at a time of basically

zero rates, the same for another year after 10 years of the same thing, as well as fiscal stimulus, do these charts still have a predictive ability? do they give you a real sense of what will happen? liz ann: it is quite a bit different in the current environment. we have the price discovery mechanism has been mucked with in terms of monetary policy at that does leave comparisons in the post financial crisis era lacking relative to history. we talk about inflation as if this spike is recent, but we have had massive inflation in this era of easy monetary policy , it is just been acid inflation. only more recently real economy inflation. not to mention in a zero rate world, those that own the assets

can borrow more against those assets and leverage. i think the leverage problem does not get discussed as much these days as it did in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. it is there and i think one of those long-term risk factors that needs to get more attention. lisa: can you elaborate? what you mean when you say leverage? are you talking about the corporate debts free? which leverage concerns you most in the long term? liz ann: all of the above. some of it has been exposed to this year, but in a peripheral sense. it is not just leverage, whether it is family office leverage, what hedge funds can do, what individuals might be doing in margin accounts, particularly in terms of trading options. also tied to that is the concentrated position problem. we looked at the gamestop

situation as a bit of a one-off. then the implosion of archegos with regard to concentrated positions on the long side. the basis for the ponzi scheme view some have on crypto. underlying that is the leverage situation. at a personal level, what the ultra-wealthy can do in terms of borrowing against assets and limiting their tax implications, i just think there is a bit more of a common thread woven through all of these stories than may be general people are aware of. tom: can you predict how corporations will respond? are corporations behaving normally or is it different? liz ann: i think they're

behaving to some degree rationally. maybe that is the better qualifier than normally when you are basically handed free money it makes sense to borrow, whether -- we wish it was more to invest in long-term variance, although some of the capital spending intentions and some of the capital spending plans on the high-tech side have been pretty decent. we have seen a pick back up in share buybacks. in a perfect world it would be less about financial engineering and more about long-term productive investments. i am pretty optimistic we are morphing towards a more investment driven economy and eventually away from a discretionary consumption driven economy. that does not mean there will not be fits and starts along the way. lisa: you are talking about the potential consequences of the buildup in leverage.

you talked also about the concentrated positions, the fragility is getting baked into the market as we continue with easing monetary conditions. is there any trigger for this or is this a roadmap of what is to come because a lot of people do not think we will ever move up zero rate policies and the only way for the balance sheet to go is to get bigger. liz ann: i will not profess to know what the fed is going to do. all we can do is listen to what they have been telling us, which is that tapering will start soon. we think given the weeks jobs report the announcement got pushed out beyond the september meeting, may be the november meeting, and the actual tapering starts thereafter. the important thing is the separation of the tapering component of policy versus the rate hike component. that was the date differential relative to 2013. regardless of what this

trajectory looks like, the balance sheet is absolutely a tool that will be used by the fed, perhaps just not more forcefully, but initially beyond just rate hikes. the balance sheet is a lever the fed pulls in addition to changes for the fed funds rate. in my lifetime i think that is going to be a tool they are putting back in their toolbox. jonathan: early important point. we are lucky to get some time with you. liz ann sonders, charles schwab chief strategist. retail sales on thursday alongside initial jobless claims. tomorrow morning, cpi in america. with a lift of 25 on the s&p, looking forward to catching up with lori calvasina, the head of u.s. equity strategy. we will do it on bloomberg tv in 20 minutes. after not upgrade to their price target. 4900 for next year.

looking for a little bit of volatility in between. tom: i am not going to say i've never seen at, but the optimism and constructive enthusiasm of lori calvasina and others is so opposed to what i read over the weekend watches -- which is fear about a market correction. jonathan: we have seen a little bit of a lift across the board. what are we seeing? lisa: let's characterize this lift. it is basically a lower expectation than the bulls. these are not bullish calls. 4500, it is not like this is a massive return. basically this is looking forward at a lack of reasons for the market to go down at a headline level. that is important. given what we are dealing with with the amount of money in the system and respect the alternative in the bond market, where are you going to go?

jonathan: enough reasons to go down. with been talking about them consistently. they have not taken the market down. lisa: how do you take a market down when there's so much cash that has nowhere else to go? tom: she mentioned lift. someone on twitter said i look 101. do you think i need a lift? i'm doing the facelift thing. jonathan: what did that gentleman say about me? tom: lisa, do you think i need to get something done? lisa: i'm interested in the high-yield bond spreads. jonathan: i love this quote. one of them is near 101 years of age, the other has an ego in the orbit of mars. it was that? leaving lisa the only chance for productive conversation. tom: should i do the eyes or the whole thing?

lisa: are we almost done? jonathan: just go for it. look like me. tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the state of louisiana is facing another storm and potential flash floods two weeks after being battered by hurricane ida. state of emergency has been declared because of tropical storm nicholas, which formed in the gulf of mexico. nicholas has triggered a storm surge. heavy rainfall and multiple flash floods expected in louisiana through the middle of the week. joe manchin is casting doubt on the timeline for president biden's economic agenda through congress. the west virginia democrat suggests a late september target for a house vote is unrealistic. mansion -- joe manchin's boat is crucial on the evenly split senate.

president biden will announce his next steps to boost the global vaccine supply before the yuan general assembly begins next week. according to the surgeon general, the u.s. pledged more than one million vaccine doses by the middle of next year. billions of doses will be needed to curb the pandemic. the crisis involving china's everbright group continues. protests have broken out from homeowners and even its employees. the company says rumors of bankruptcy are not true. it says it is facing unprecedented difficulties but is facing its -- but is meeting its responsibilities. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> my own forecast is for inflation to move hi this year and move down next year.

i do see risks to the forecast. it is possible a higher prices could cause longer run inflation expectations -- thereby putting upward pressure on inflation. tom: loretta mester of the cleveland fed. i am certain she will read my book of the year. here it is. 226 pages. barry eichengreen, university of california professor has done it again. this time is different -- in defense of public debt. it is classic barry eichengreen, it is dense and to the point on our great crisis of the moment. the professor joins us from berkeley. barry eichengreen, congratulations. exceptionally well-timed with covid as your last chapter. you take this all the way back to venetian and florentine bonds

of the 14th and 15th centuries. why do that? why do you take public debt after the time of venice and florence? barry: we are trying to put today's debt in historical perspectives and show public debt can play a positive role in state building, in establishing the legitimacy of the state and in meeting our burdens. tom: you look at the gold standard. this goes back to a classic book the red a master and i have read. how does gold fit into the defense of that? barry: some countries have established the credibility they need in order to be able to borrow by establishing stable money. that was the gold standard in the 19th century. several banks have figured out how to establish their credibility without an anchor today.

i'm not with that federal reserve governor expecting high inflation going forward because i think that credibility is firmly established. lisa: you started writing this book before the pandemic and yet it is even more relevant today. i am wondering what drove you to write in defense of public debt at a time when a lot of people are wondering about the consequences? barry: we saw premature austerity after the global financial crisis. we thought a positive role public debt could play in state building in the development of private financial markets through the presence of a safe asset had been underplayed. we wanted to redress the balance. lisa: was the main defense to show it would not necessarily prompt another financial crisis or to say its influence on slowing growth creating less incentive to spend was

overstated? barry: we wanted to make that last point that people have exaggerated the negative effects of public debt. as i said we wanted to make the point about positive influences, about the development of private financial markets, which has been overlooked. tom: on page 125 you cite reinhart and rogoff on this time is different. there is a great theory that this time is different. grote -- joe stiglitz emphasized it is about growth sustaining to allow debt to continue. do you have a confidence we can sustain growth to take on this new debt burden? barry: i am worried about debt sustainability going forward. we have a chapter that focuses on that. i think productive investments in infrastructure and social

infrastructure will more than pay for themselves. we are sending a copy of the book to senator manchin. lisa: there also a question about what productive means. do you get a sense which investments pay dividends in which spending could be problematic? barry: we look in the book at positive and negative examples of railway that honduras tried for two centuries to build across the isthmus and failed. it is clear investments in early childhood education more than pay for themselves if you're sufficiently patient. lisa: would you go so far as to extent this argument into modern monetary theory, this idea that if you borrow money and give it out to all of the consumers come in particular lower income ones,

they will spend it and that will do the growth. you would hear to that being a positive thing? barry: i would not go that far. i think there productive and unproductive reasons for borrowing. there is such a thing as government budget constraint. you can pay debt off, liquidate debt through inflation. that is not a deferrable outcome. we do talk about how governments have restored debt sustainability when challenged. tom: you do mention the senator from west virginia. you'll be doing a book party in his office when you bring the book out. barry eichengreen, how do you react to the number $3.5 trillion as an overlay on the previous debt? how do you respond to that and how would you advise the congresswoman from berkeley, nancy pelosi? barry: congresswoman poulos the

-- nancy pelosi is actually the congresswoman from -- tom: to meet is the same thing. barry: i would remind her it is $3.5 billion over 10 years. i would remind her the economy is still 2% smaller than it would've been without the pandemic. i would emphasize it is important the investment be productive and we think carefully about how to allocate it. tom: barry eichengreen, thank you so much. hands down my book of the year. "in defense of public debt." i cannot say enough about it. 226 pages of varied dense, very readable history. as you mentioned lisa to our present moment. lisa: as we encourage debt globally on a corporate and public level. the specificity of what the programs are that the borrowed

money goes towards is the achilles' heel of the discussion because you have to get granular and those granularity's have a lot of disagreement going on in washington. tom: the confidence of growth and the way to extricate ourselves from the debt is technology and productivity increasing. those are amorphous things that have nothing to do with the political heat in washington. lisa: there other consequences of those developments. we have not talked about the bureau of labor statistics coming out with a report over the weekend that painted a bleak picture of the employment market over the next decade in the united states growing by less than in previous decades with more lower paid workers. nothing will change that. people are retiring earlier. what you're getting is people getting moved out of the labor market because of the technology. tom: we will see. futures up 29. the vix 19.03.

a better market and a better conversation at 12:00 today. ken burns out with a wonderful new documentary on muhammad ali. this is bloomberg. state with us. -- stay with us. ♪

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jonathan: good morning, good morning. cpi into tomorrow. retail sales on thursday. 30 minutes until the opening, we

bounce back from a five day losing streak. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg -- the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. the last leg on the road to september 22. >> the u.s. cpi print. you may start to see the taper. >> the fed will make up stories to fit their story. >> there is a lot of uncertainty about inflation. >> any upside surprises. >> particulate upside surprises. >> could certainly hurt growth. >>