report. it includes two prominent experts from the u.s. food and drug administration. they say none of the studies they have viewed showed credible evidence of substantial protection from the vaccine, but there could be additional side effects if the boosters come out too soon. a change to the limit for federal deductions of state and local taxes. some lawmakers say they won't support any tax plan unless the so-called cap is addressed. china is urging the united states to take steps to repair damaged relations between the two countries. the foreign minister says president biden should uphold the spirit of the phone call he

had last week with xi jinping. there is a report the u.s. is considering a new investigation into chinese conductors. the united nations human rights office says they have received credible allegations of reprisal by the taliban on former afghan security forces. they say there were also instances in which officials of the previous government and their relatives were arbitrarily detained and later turned up dead. the council was warned of a new and perilous phase for afghanistan. local news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. i am matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. oil hitting its biggest tie in six weeks. tropical storm nicholas threatens to further disrupt the industry. plus, the crisis in china over mounting protests raising the stakes for authorities in beijing. we will bring you the latest. and the debate over boosters as the u.s. prepares to roll them out next week. some scientists are saying people may not even need them. we will discuss with the executive director of the international vaccine access center at johns hopkins. first, let's take a quick check on the market.

we don't see many gains in terms of stocks on the broader indices. the s&p 500 up only .1%. it had been down. the nasdaq up 0.5 percent. it has been much deeper in the red today. meanwhile, the dow jones adding 236 points. the 30 stock index gaining while the others do very little. crude we are watching closely. this is the nymex trade, up $.68. we see brent currently trading at $73.47. some big gains today in oil. let's talk about the commodities rally. oil rising to a six week high. one of the only metals rising is aluminum. it touched 3000 for the first time in 13 years. the leader of energy coverage in

the americas joins us now. we have lost so much production and refining during hurricane night. that has yet to be made up as we look -- hurricane ida. that has yet to be made up as we look into the i have another storm. >> that's right. as of yesterday, something like 49% is still off-line, and that's two weeks since ida hit. a lot of damage, a lot of investigation into the extent of that damage is underway. the disruption is real. and now we have tropical storm nicholas heading north into the gulf along the gulf coast of texas. that threatens to bring more disruption to oil production in the region. matt: how important is that supply to the global market? i am looking at brent back up to

$73.50. i can't do the math as to how important goal supply is to the brent market. simon: in a few words, it is important. when you think roughly, pre-pandemic levels, global demand was about 100 million barrels a day. a million barrels a day are still off-line. there are supplies that can cover that, but people looking at that are nervous. and how long will this go on? in the gulf, we are use to passing through. oil companies usually get cruise back on immediately after hurricanes pass. what has happened here is the

rigs have been damaged. the really serious damage was done to infrastructure onshore, pipelines that connect those platforms with land. the transportation, the helipad's, the helicopters. it's quite widespread and still being evaluated, and it's not clear how long it will take. matt: we did see some strategic petroleum reserves be released both in the u.s. and china. on one hand, we were giving exxon capacity to refine by the end of last week. i think it was up to about 3 million barrels. on the other hand, china was really intervening in the first historical move to control the price. simon: that's a good summary. it was pretty dramatic, the chinese intervention. they are wary of domestic

inflation and trying to keep a lid on that. in the u.s., exxon had a supply crunch. it could not get crews to the refinery. they were essentially being lent barrels in the short term. that's more of a localized issue. it was made available to exxon to ease the situation. matt: do you expect more releases? is the market not at all concerned that china is going to unload a few more barrels to try to move the price? simon: it's unclear. we have seen moves by the government in beijing.

the price jump could be another feature, but at the same time, it's a dangerous precedent. at the same time, the price continues to go toward $80 and beyond. it's not at all clear. it was an unprecedented move last week, of course. matt: i read on the bloomberg that they have access to maybe 220 million barrels. thank you for

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. china's ever graham group is facing mounting protests by homebuyers and retail employees as beijing tries to prevent a debt crisis from sparking social unrest. what is the size and scope? this is a story we have been seeing almost every day pop up on the most read stories. how important is evergrande to the global market? >> it's the most important property manager in china, 37 billion dollars in liability. for the next 12 months alone. clearly, that is what is catching the attention of creditors worldwide. we are seeing protests at the

companies headquarters. they are protesting the fact that they were opposing a restructuring of wealth management products. wmt's are a form of off-balance-sheet funding that property managers in china use to pay suppliers, employees, etc.. whatevergrante -- what evergrande has been doing is proposing a restructuring that is causing issues because these are people who paid for something, expected cash in hand, and now they are not receiving it. matt: what are we looking at in terms of market pricing? and what is the expectation that the state steps in to help them out? >> bonds are now trading at $.25 on the dollar. we had three downgrades in the

last two weeks. china's largest rating agency, all three rating agencies, moody's, fitch have rated it as junk. the bonds are pretty much on the brink of default. going back to what is going on overnight with some of the protests, these were off-balance-sheet vehicles. we just don't know the extent, the size of what is out there. this is an overriding issue that i have brought up. it has been a key concern for some time, what is the extent of this and what is the penalty for contagion? matt: i am sure there are a lot of people out there saying $.25 on the dollar, let me take the bet that the party will back

this up. they don't want to see a huge disaster. on the other hand, do we see any examples of china letting some of these firms go? >> for me, at $.25 on the dollar, you are definitely seeing emerging-market stress. but the overriding risk is so great and there is just not a lot of transparency there. as a fund manager to investors, hey, this is a good opportunity to get in. you need to have something tangible you can hang your hat on if you are going to make a recommendation. the real bullish case is the fact that beijing will step in, backstop a lot of this, and over time, they will be able to raise

funds, pay off creditors, on and on. but there are a lot of risks surrounding the outcome. matt: that is a bullish case, but there are clearly some bears out there. the stock has dropped more than 90%. and a lot of people have said i don't want any part of this. thank you for joining us. still ahead, the debate over booster shots. we will discuss with dr. william moss, executive director of the international vaccine access center at johns hopkins. in some countries, israel is considering a fourth booster, but a group of scientists has recently said you don't need a booster at all in a lot of cases. we will cover that next.

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. an all-star panel of scientists say coronavirus vaccines work so well most people don't need a booster at all. the authors of a medical journal review say governments would be better served immunizing the unvaccinated. here to discuss is the executive director of the international vaccine access center at johns hopkins. dr. william maas, to me, these are two different issues, how well vaccines work, whether boosters would be a good thing, and whether it's better to use resources on the unvaccinated. are we may be doing a dense -- doing a disservice to conflate these issues? >> the number 1, 2 and three priorities for us in the united

states and globally is to get vaccines to the unvaccinated. that is what we need to concentrate on here, and that is what we need to concentrate on globally to address the global inequities. we have tried both carrots and sticks to get many of the americans who are eligible and not yet vaccinated to get vaccinated. it has been very slow. we saw an uptick in vaccinations after the surge with the delta virus -- delta variant starting in mid july. but it has come down. part of that is driven by fear. i think in large part that is what is behind the vaccine requirements president biden announced last week. it is a different story about booster doses, first of all, whether we call them boosters or think of it as a three dose series, but this is to protect

or provide further protection to the vaccinated. there is data and the cdc released some data on friday in the morbidity weekly review suggesting we may be seeing a decrease, particularly in older adults. we are continuing to see hospitalization and death. we know there are going to be breakthrough infections. matt: every time there is a breakthrough infection or in a worst-case scenario, when someone who is vaccinated dies, i get emails from people who

seem to really want the vaccine not to work saying look, i have been telling you, this is not a bulletproof solution. i think it's clear to most of us that it isn't, but shouldn't we be trying to make the argument that getting the vaccine works better for your health in the long-term than not getting the vaccine? >> that is so clear. i am very surprised to be hearing that. data released by the cdc last friday, greater than a 10 fold risk of dying among unvaccinated people compared to vaccinated individuals. there is no doubt that these vaccines prevent people from being infected. it's a lower, it's about a four-fivefold difference. but 11 times for hospitalizations, 10 times for deaths. these vaccines do what we wanted them to do. they prevent disease. they are not going to prevent all infections.

they are not going to prevent people from getting mild illness, but by and large they prevent severe disease. hospitalizations and deaths are in older adults, people with comorbidities, people with underlying risks for disease whose immune systems may be weakened by their age or other diseases. matt: i think we can agree that death is a bad long-term side effect. the people who write to me are worried about possible undiscovered side effects of the vaccine and say look, i would rather stick with the masks. i'm not getting the shot because i'm worried that we will eventually find the vaccine leads to other problems. what do you know so far about side effects?

>> many people who are hesitant to get vaccines underestimate the risk of the disease and overestimate the risk of the vaccine, to put it simply. we have only had these vaccines for coming up on a year. we don't see long-term side effects of the vaccines and we haven't seen them with these vaccines. the risk of any serious adverse event related to the vaccines is so small compared to the risk of

strongly favors vaccines, and we need that kind of -- we make that kind of calculus in our daily lives all the time. i agree, there are some people who feel they can protect themselves -- and masks are good, no doubt about that. but the likelihood that there is going to be some unknown, long-term effect from these vaccines is so, so small. matt: thank you for your time. we appreciate it. dr. william moss, executive director of the international vaccine center at johns hopkins, which is supported by michael bloomberg, owner of this broadcast network. now, let's get to something that caught my eye, and it is related. the u.s. open men's tennis final ended novak djokovic's unbeaten streak at the majors and the possibility for him to become the undisputed greatest of all time.

medvedev spoke earlier today on bloomberg about the victory. >> as a child, it is something you first dream of but think you can never achieve, and then you get close to doing it, but in tennis, you never know until you do it. i am really happy to manage to pull this off, especially against one of the greatest tennis players of all time. matt: the final was also a place for high-profile corporate names and celebrities. there were also some hollywood celebrities, brad pitt and bradley cooper. the interesting thing i think is that spectators were required to

be vaccinated, but players were not, including these two. they are among the 18 players unvaccinated. and 50% of players have not gotten the shot. this compares to 90-95 percent of nba and nfl players, 80 5% of major league baseball players, 85% of professional golfers. for some reason, tennis is really under vaccinated, and i think that's an interesting juxtaposition when you look at the other big sports in the united states. this is bloomberg.

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mark: covid-19 vaccines work so well that most people don't need

a booster, according to a new report from an all-star panel of scientists from around the world including two experts from the u.s. fda. they say none of the studies they reviewed showed crevice -- credible evidence of substantial declining effectiveness and there could be more side effects if boosters come out too soon or too broadly. house democrats have drafted a package of tax increases that falls short of president biden's ambition. the proposal would raise the top corporate tax rate to 26.5%, less than the 28% to the president wanted. the top rate on capital gains would rise from 20% to 25% instead of the 39.6 percent mr. biden proposed. the package of proposals is rest -- estimated to raise more than $2 trillion. north korea is trying to increase its capability for nukes -- nuclear strikes.

kim jong-un's regime announced it testfired a new model of long-range cruise missile over the weekend. it is the first known missile test in north korea since march. they came days after north korea staged its first military parade since joe biden became president. the global nuclear watchdog says surveillance of iran's atomic program is on track. the international agency has struck a packed with charon that allows monitors to replace damaged surveillance cameras and memory cards. the agreement avoids a sharp escalation in tensions over iran 's nuclear activity and offers diplomats hoping to renew an agreement. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is

bloomberg. ♪ ♪ amanda: welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: here are the top stories we are following. the leverage finance market bracing for a surge in new deals fueled by booming demand for m&a financing, investors hungry for anything that offers yield. we discussed that with paul to gianni. uber shares higher today after goldman sachs put the buy rating on the service. more on the stock of the hour and a return to travel. michael brown, ceo of travel and leisure joins us to discuss the demand or drop off as the delta

variant emerges as a real problem for the industry. amanda: that will be an interesting read as we move past -- try to move past this pandemic, stocks remain mired, the closed all-time highs. even if they are down slightly, just barely off record highs. still, we are seeing soft action partly because we will get a read on cpi. energy a clear leader as opec raises expectations for demand for its products. we are seeing the energy subgroup leading. not a lot of leadership from big tech subgroups that make up the -- stocks. weakness in the nasdaq showing its energy and financials keeping that above water here. some new -- coming out of china on the regulatory front. reports it may be cracking down

on how all the pay -- alipay is operating. goldman sachs raising its price target on uber to $64. that stock is getting a move today. goldman giving a vote of confidence for uber, saying it sees it could become the next large cap platform ecosystem. stocks editor dave wilson with the latest. >> what we are talking about here is an analysts goldman sachs hired in june making his first call on internet companies. uber technologies is one of them. the ride-hailing and food delivery with a buy rating and a $64 share price. this is a company analysts had been positive on. look at what they are anticipating in terms of revenue. 40% plus growth this year. 30% plus next year and another 25% in 2023.

clearly, sheridan's view is in keeping with what its peers have been saying in terms of what is ahead for this company. the revenues shifted during the pandemic toward food delivery, overcoat eats, and away from ride hailing. the 60% premium relative to yesterday's closing price. actually, analysts are expecting even more. goldman's estimate is a little conservative. the gap we are seeing between stock prices just above $40. the average estimate is $68. that is historically high, no question. the on that, this is a stock you start to see in the comparison chart but more specifically here , it peaked in february. just above $64, which is goldman's projection. it went down as much as 39%

through last month trying to make a comeback and goldmans should help the company. >> when i was in new york at the end of the summer, overcoat eats helped me out because the taco bell was far away from my hotel. i was always sure to tip well because these drivers don't get paid very much at all. dave: they do not. part of that is their status, which has been an issue in the u.s. and internationally. you just had in the netherlands, overcoat drivers being classified as employees as opposed to contractors. a court in amsterdam ruled against the company in a case filed by a local union and they have the same situation in the u.k. where a judge ruled they needed to be treated as employees came up in terms of a referendum in california and that has been thrown into

question more recently. this fight over workers rights is out there. nonetheless, there are optimistic analysts and goldman is now one of them. matt: dave wilson talking to us about uber. kathy woods are can best management is allowing one of its funds to invest in canadian bitcoin etf's. in a filing for the $5.7 billion arc next-generation internet etf, the firm tweaked the fund's prospectus to include a reference to holding exposure to cryptocurrencies by exchange traded funds in canada. which makes sense because as far as i know, that is the only place you can get an etf on bitcoin. yet, not yet allowed in the u.s. and there are few in the great white north. amanda: that is right.

we have seen canadian firms leading the way on the creation of the etf for bitcoin. this only makes sense. this presumably will attract a lot of potential momentum to those etf's. we will watch to see whether we see any change in inflows but it is an interesting opportunity for the etf's on the side of the border. matt: i am sure you know what you are getting when investing in kathy wood. she is a bitcoin bowl. this shouldn't surprise anyone. i am guessing she would invest in pot stocks? also very big in canada. why is that the canadians embrace we need and bitcoin more than the americans? amanda: easy for us to do pot because we had a easier path to legalization. you don't see canadians as the

wild and crazy rick's -- risk takers. junior mining companies are risk takers when it comes to capital formation. it's the one place we put it all on the line. matt: very cool. so many great things about canada. that's just where we start and that's before we even get to female singer songwriters. the plethora of female singer songwriters successful out of canada is unbelievable. joni mitchell. alaniz morrissette. avril lavigne. celine dion. sarah mcglocklin. it goes on and on. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. the leveraged finance market bracing for a surge in new deals fueled by burning demand for mna financing and investors hungry to get their hands on anything that offers an alternative to rock-bottom interest rates. let's turn to paul triggiani. we heard a number of investors say private credit is where it is at. they haven't said this, but they are implying they are willing to fund almost anything as long as they can get decent return. they gained six or 7% funding lb hills. is this going to increase? >> we have certainly seen that particularly in the direct

lending space. the market has been active there and we are seeing a big increase in europe, the u.k. and the u.s. in terms of new issuance coming to markets. we think that is likely to be the case going forward. amanda: it has been interesting to watch because we have seen this massive influx of new debt entrances -- debt issuances, yet small cap distress. represents an opportunity. there is a certain portion of small cap businesses that didn't get the support that other businesses got through this pandemic. what is different about this distress cycle? how big is the opportunity? >> interesting question. if you look over the last two decades or so, and you can track small cap with our trap, they are very different.

large cap you generally need a distraction -- small cap special situations are quite a bit different. the opportunity that there tends to be more evergreen companies that are small generally have issues because of idiosyncratic issues at the company level so they are less able to weather the storm on an ongoing basis. we have an event like we have had with this pandemic, small companies suffer even more. as you think about the public markets and credit markets that have come back dramatically, those really haven't helped private small companies and many of the facilities that europe, the u.k. governments and the u.s. put in place have left many of them behind. particularly if we have another wave in the fall and bore slowdowns of any kind, we think there is tremendous opportunity

set in small cap distress investing. matt: i am surprised by how little distress issuance there is. if i look at dis on the bloomberg, you see a huge spike during the pandemic beginning in 2020 but it comes down dramatically and we are now at levels that look like they could be below historic averages. why do you think that is? >> it is true in the high-yield market. some large companies have survived quite well and have been able to get liquidity and access public markets, which is unheard of in a cycle or recession. if you contrast that with the private credit markets where companies are 300 million to $400 million or got a loan from a direct lending manager, those types of businesses which may

not show up in that screening tool, there are quite a few of those companies having issues and are not necessarily reflected in that analysis. amanda: in this rush to issue debt into a hungry market we have seen all kinds of deals, including those who are raising debt to pay dividends which many would argue is the worst use of capital. are you worried about some of what you're seeing here that would speak to a frothy market and that's being issued simply because they can? >> if you think about the size of both the leveraged loan market and the high-yield market , it is multiples bigger than before. while many of the structures in the leveraged loan market are much healthier, you might say the same is not true for high-yield markets which are bigger right now and perhaps there will be more opportunity as we see that. private equity is back in

business. they are buying companies aggressively again and issuing debt to fund those buyouts. i think the last 12 to 18 months hasn't cleaned up a lot of the leverage -- leveraging that has happened. in addition to the new issuance is coming in the high-yield market around leveraged buyout's. amanda: i was hearing long before this pandemic, but six month before, about covenant free. how is the quality today and are we seeing enough where we don't have to worry about some kind of reckoning? >> our view in terms of the leverage loan market, we see the more restrictive covenants, the better issuers have been able to not necessarily get away with but issue covenant flight deals. there is a bit of self-selection going on. the riskier credits still have the most protective covenants

that prevent you from stripping assets and taking things away from the lenders that provided the financing. we tend to favor europe over the u.s. with respect to documentation. there is less creditor on creditor violence, if you will, in europe. amanda: great to have you with us. head of distressed credit at invesco. coming up, we are watching the path back toward normal for the travel industry. we talked to the ceo of travel and leisure on demand, michael brown after this.

amanda: this is bloomberg markets. we have been talking about the each -- issuance of debt. when it comes to airlines, it is jumping pretty strongly. the industry outstanding debt of 23%. now at $340 billion. this year, global air carriers have sold $63 billion in bonds and loans. what makes that interesting is it is a sector that is very much in the grips of a global pandemic. a vote of confidence for the rs. matt: not even close on return to normal. i say this having been in berlin 's brand-new airport yesterday. my flight was delayed for hours and i ended up skipping it. most of the airport is shut down and there are very few employees in the airport.

after i bailed on my flight, i look for somebody to help retrieve my bags. there weren't any british airways employees left. i think it's interesting they borrowed so much money and are operating still with such a skeleton crew. there just are not the amount of services or employees you would expect for an industry that has borrowed $350 billion. amanda: data sitting on an important question for our next guest, michael brown, ceo of membership and travel and leisure. matt is keying on something important. we are seeing capacity restrained by labor shortages. that has been a story. global air demand may be lower than what capacity can handle. labor shortage seems to be the story. what are you hearing from people

out there on the inability to provide the service they would like to? >> i appreciate the chance to be here today. capacity is very important. we are seeing occupancy levels in the latter half of 2021 that look like they did in 2019. labor is still important. although it has been a challenge, we have been able to transform our operations to meet the service needs of our members around the world. we are excited about what the recovery looks like for the remainder of the year. matt: what effect does the airline industry have here? i went to munich last week for my first auto show since march of 2019. it was packed. people were ready to go again. hotels were up and running and i was impressed by a couple of hotels and restaurants that were

brimming with people and the services were on point. but again, the airline experience was so disappointing and the airport seems like just a shadow of their former selves. how does that affect your business? >> to your first point, very on point for leisure travel, which is people are excited to get back on the road and enjoy their free time. it is the leading recovery aspect in the industry. we have seen that throughout 2021. what we have seen in our customer base is a transition on how they travel. as restrictions come in from places like hawaii, people are turning to more regional destinations. we have seen a dramatic spike in people driving to their vacation as opposed to flying. the consumer is reacting because they don't want to give up their free time, therefore they are

just changing their behavior until either the airline experience or travel restrictions subside. matt: thank you p hopefully we can get you back. we are up against a break. michael brown, ceo trash will -- travel and leisure. we have the salt conference coming back. i just went to the munich auto show. it looks like business travel and leisure travel could come back. there are some constraints on that. i am matt miller. this is bloomberg.

mark: if you are looking for light at the end of the covid

tunnel, scientists have a reality check. brace for more of the same. they say the race between the variant and the vaccine won't be over until everyone is either vaccinated or has been infected. scientists predict outbreaks will close schools and push offices to rethink plans of reopening. tropical storm nicholas may reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall in texas. the storm is on track to bring flooding rains to houston and parts of louisiana still recovering from hurricane ida. while it will most likely bypass the gulf of mexico's offshore oil and gas, meteorologists say it could dump 20 inches of rain in parts of the region. the bite and administration expanding its effort to find and reunite migrant families separated at the u.s.-mexico