tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg September 14, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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plus, a boost for the u.k. prime minister, set to confirm third round vaccinations for the most honorable -- most vulnerable. this as the u.k. faces a perfect storm in the labor market. good morning. tom, i think i have peak growth, peak recovery, but jp morgan going for peak delta with a big impact on markets. good morning. tom: good morning. this is the quote from that call by jp morgan and the team, as delta subsides, and inflation persists due to supply frictions from reopening and accommodative monetary policy, we expect the reflation opening trade to resume its outperformance. bond deals and cyclicals likely bottomed last month, that was in
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the call as well. manus: yep, he is in a risk on mood and he says we are going to move higher. he does not think we are going to be in for a var shock. waiting for cpi, i think the market is very long. it is long the breakevens, we have seen them sweep higher. is the peak green inflation narrative christ into -- reinstallation narrative christ into markets -- priced into markets? tom: in asia, modest optimism this morning the msci asia pacific posting gains of currently about 3/10 of a percent. you want to break out the nikkei from this. 33,000 is what some strategists are looking at for the benchmark in japan, at its highest level could close today, since 1990. but it is unsure whether it will
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he sustained. in the u.s., futures .2 gains of 2% after the u.s. snapped five days of losses, ending the day on wall street in the green. oil is higher, the call from jeff curry at goldman sachs that you could see oil prices exploding. manus: yep, and it could be very tight in the gas market. let's look ahead to some of the important events. cpi print at 1:30 u.k. time, and in israel, we get the gdp and cpi data. tom: ok, the chinese foreign minister visits his south korean counterpart to discuss regional and global issues, and apple will be rolling out its biggest product launch of the year as it unveils the latest line of iphones and other products. let's dig it deeper into some of the big stories we have flagged and are watching today. firstly, let's check in on the asian session with juliette
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saly. juliette: yeah, really watching the movement in the nikkei. there is some optimism lifting stocks in japan, we've had a leadership a boost to the topix and others. the topix at 74% of companies listed lifted. goldman seeing limited downside to beijing's regulatory clampdown. the vaccine optimism flowing into korean assets. south korea one of the better performers, the won leading fx gains. south korea expects 70% of the population vaccinated by next month. manus: that is a number nobody would have thought of before the olympics. let's cross to evergrande. investors are reacting and are on the street. let's get across to stephen engle on that story. juliette saly there in hong
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kong. juliette: let's talk about what is happening with evergrande, falling to the lowest level since 2014. you have evergrande nav falling by as much as 24%, but it's all about the question about the contagion of and how it will flow through. maybank saying they are not seeing systemic risk and chinese regulators will likely allow -- not allow it to evolve into such a risk. they still remain overweight on china. our opinion columnist says this could be the hunger games for evergrande, they have now hired financial advisors for the cash crisis. manus: sorry about the
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confusion. they have decisions, the social and financial. a pitch over to the oil market for the third straight day, global inventories have shrunk to the lowest level in 20 months, and goldman sachs's jeff curry thinks there could be more upside. >> market in a deficit, you've already exhausted the pandemic inventory glut, so you are slowly getting to a point where you get any type of disruption into the autumn, the potential for oil prices to explode to the upside, particularly if you don't get iran. manus: that is a squeeze-y market. let's go to sharon show. -- cho. the inventory is down because of storm ida, and this is where korea's really leaning into the
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narrative. sharon: yes, we have seen global crude drawing down, now at the lowest in 20 months. it is mostly due to the demand we saw coming back in the u.s. and china, and also in europe to some extent. if we look at the breakdown, the u.s. crude stockpiles are at the lowest in about two years, whereas chinese stockpiles are the lowest since september 2020. china publicly announced for the first time it is releasing oil to cooldown prices. we must remember oil prices have been rising 40% so far this year. i think backwardation market structure, which means prices are higher than later months, is also prompting refiners to draw from storage, and also preventing oil traders from ordering --hoarding crude oil.
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tom: what is the function of opec-plus to offset some of this pressure? sharon: well, opec-plus is bringing back supply to the market at the moment and producing more. the summer driving season is coming to an end and we do see some roadblocks in terms of demand in parts of the globe. some people are indicating we might see a small surplus by the end of this year and that might pressure prices, but we also must remember that it is the u.s. hurricane season and hurricane ida brought a huge impact in terms of production in the u.s.. there is a lot to be figured out. tom: sharon cho, thank you. turning to germany, we are less than two weeks from a historic election in europe's largest economy, focus already turning to the likely coalition options.
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yesterday, potential kingmakers were said to be open to more spending and investment. joining us is maria tadeo in berlin. what does this mean for coalition expectations? maria: it is a very strategic and tactical move that it is interesting. lender said yesterday that the idea of a black zero is effective for the cdu but not for us, we believe we need to invest in the country to modernize the german economy. it is interesting because it often -- it opens the door to the traffic light coalition. when you look at the election, we have talked about this a while, everyone pulling between 26% and 20%, if you include the margin of error, it will be a very tight results. we are starting to see the contours of a coalition that could emerge from this.
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the other thing mentioned yesterday and equally interesting was aniline up your buck -- was one candidate suggesting she could not go into a coalition with the far-left because of the foreign policy positions. the moves are tactical but paving the way to the possible traffic light coalition. manus: maria, it is interesting, we just saw norway finish up the polls and we will see a huge pivot to the left possibly in the nordic countries. policies and impact in the new government, what is the biggest risk for markets in terms of policies that could shift in germany? maria: i think for markets, when you look at the german election, they tell you they care about two things. one is fiscal spending, whether or not germany is looking to relax those rules and are we going to see meter meter deployment in the economy?
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germany, the biggest economy in europe, but lagging behind in things like digital and green and distilled very traditional in the way it works. perhaps the least market friendly option at this point is presented as that red-red-green option. more of a tilted to the left. angst like potential capping of rents happening in the city of berlin, it was overturned by the constitutional court, and the idea that germany could become more shaky. angela merkel has been a pillar for stability. that red-red-grid coalition is something the metered parties do not want to get into. manus: if mario draghi endures, i think he could be the most powerful member on the dock. maria tadeo. we will speak to figures from
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the german business world around what is at stake. we have the leaders, the software company, the banks, they are all in. it is germany decides with francine lacqua tomorrow morning. tom: let's get the first word news with simone foxman. simone: good morning. boris johnson is to confirm stir vaccinations will be rolled out to the most vulnerable people this autumn as he sets out the uk's new approach to tackling the virus later today. the government already confirming 12-15-year-olds in england will be offered a single vaccine shot from next week. australia is developing a digital vaccination pass as a step toward further reopening its borders. the country has been mostly closed to nonresidents since march last year. norway's pro oil opposition labour party is on pace to oust
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the conservative government. a coalition headed by a millionaire looks poised to secure a five seat majority in parliament. the victory means of social democrats lead all of the nordic governments except iceland. walmart says they are investigating a hoax tying the retailer to a nonexistent crypto deal. a big announcement said walmart would start letting customers pay with litecoin, a relatively obscure token. the coin jumped as much as 33% before the retailer denied the statement. a panel of scientists have found covid-19 vaccines work so well that most people not yet need a booster. the report in the lancet, the authors, including fda experts, say the government should focus on the unvaccinated and wait for
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more data on booster efficacy. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: ok. coming up on the show, lots more to focus on, including the inflation debate and commodities, what is happening in that space. we will break it down for you and bring you discussion and analysis from martin malone. this is bloomberg. ♪
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troubles of the ever grand group. -- ever grand -- evergrande group. we are joined by martin malone. there are protesters outside the institution. good morning. martin: i think basically this will be a social issue. xi has been very vocal backing the social agenda. literally the politics, the social side, the sort of ideology of president xi will basically come to the forefront and way behind that is the market, investors, companies and some of the protests we are seeing. tom: what does it tell us about the distorted economic incentives in china and whether any progress has been made to address those? martin: i think this is actually
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the main point, we call it sort of the triple pivot from president xi, that is a pivot to the real economy sectors, away from speculation on property, a pivot to the state being more involved and a pivot literally domestic, because he has to rely much more so than on the development model of investment and exports. this domestic pivot is all to do with the brickle -- blue-collar workers. in china, this is the main point of president xi, especially as we go into the 2022 congress session. from an -- manus: from an investment point of view, a lot has been written on the fishers of growth. -- fissures of growth. a bigger risk to china and em than a taper tantrum. is that correct? martin: i don't think so.
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i think china basically has the ability to hold everything together and all we need to do is look at the bond yields. china's bond yields just below 3%. there is significant room for them to remove her, significant physical fire powder -- power and monetary firepower. also, we could see is there any major risk. years ago, they devalue the currency with a shock valuation that turned into but a negative event for global stocks, but we are seeing a very strong renminbi at the 640 level and that doesn't point to any major financial risks even though we have evergrande and other risks. tom: the shanghai composite of year-to-date. back to levels last seen in 2015. but the equity markets, at least
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domestic investment seems relatively sanguine. do they have more levers to pull? martin: what we are seeing here is, and if we go back to decades -- two decades, their gdp per capita was $1000 and today it is $1000. they have gone to a relatively wealthy economy in emerging-market terms, but they have to get to $40,000 by the middle of the century, so the next 30 years, quadrupling the sort of wealth affected if you like. that is a redistribution of wealth and consumption factor, but also a social construct. that will only come about with domestic stability. the whole focus of president xi's new economic policy framework is the most crucial part and that is going to be front and center and sort of
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socialism of the chinese society. manus: martin, the nikkei at levels we haven't seen since 1990. somebody told me to trade stocks in 1990. i was a trainee stock worker and i failed. -- stockbroker and i failed. you are a massive will and you say there is more to go because it is not the 1980's, you are not worried about equity market to gdp. why? martin: if we go back to the 1980's bubble period, it was basically the equivalent of pre-lehman. so finance in terms of real estate. the financial sector in japan was over half of the stock market in 1990. today, we don't talk about financial stocks at all when we talk about japan. japan has basically globalized and its input to global
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manufacturing is significantly more than a few decades ago. comparing 1990 today is a different factor. back to 10 year yields, in 1990, they were 8% in japan and today they are 0%. the financial sector and funding structure is a totally different issue, and where japan sells its widgets today, totally different. tom: martin malone stays with us. we will talk u.s. inflation and get a view on u.s. equities next as well. coming up, we discussed the all-important gauge of u.s. inflation expected later today, cpi. what it means for the fed taper timeline. that is crucial. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie in london with manus cranny in dubai. the focus is shifting to uscp i later today. risks from delta and supply chain shocks have pushed price higher. if consumer prices are hotter than expected, the fed could alter their timeline. that's what investors are watching. still with us is martin malone. where is your view now? what are you saying in terms of the data at hand, and your team and your view on whether or not this is transitory or embedded or the timeline for the fed. martin: we do view there is a transitory issue, and structural issues that could come about, but simply in q3, we see a peak out of inflation just over 5%, and that could taper down to probably 4% in the first half of
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next year, and the second half of next year, down to the 2% figures. the fed is right about transitory, but it could upset -- could be upset by events or if we see restrictions on color wages. manus: what is the bigger risk, $100 oil, goldman says $80 employee -- oil impacts inflation. what is the bigger risk for you and how should you position? martin: i would not be too concerned about an excessive oil price simply because opec have significant supply potential to put on. they are currently producing around 27 million barrels per day and they could easily go up to 30 million barrels and that would stop any oil above $80. as your previous report was talking about, the end of the driving season and into the winter season, i would not be excessively concerned about high-level -- about high oil
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price in the next three months. tom: jp morgan saying cut tech and focus on reflation trade. are they right? martin: yes, i think they are. we have been bullish stocks for 18 on's -- 18 months. we have an s&p target for the end of this year. more important is the end of next year, we have 6000 interview target. that civilly because all of the macro tailwinds -- that is simply because of the macro tailwinds, and covid is a shifting from an endemic from a pandemic. all governments are now under tremendous pressure to deliver action. we see this in all of the upcoming elections across the world. and all of those factors to us point to significant upside risk for global enterprises. manus: yep. a call to arms to close the wealth gaps.
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tom: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it is 6:30 a.m. in london, i am tom mackenzie with manus cranny in dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." evergrande's crisis escalates, a dire warning over its financial health as protesters call on the firm to make good on its promises. treasuries steady ahead of key u.s. inflation data.
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investors look for any clues on the fed taper timeline. plus, a booster for the u.k., the prime minister set to confirm third vaccinations for the most honorable as the country faces a perfect storm for its labor market. manus, we have been talking about that line from j.p. morgan. cut technology and focus on the reflation trade. a different narrative than we have from morgan stanley last week. manus: absolutely, this is all around their view on peak delta. we just spoke to martin malone, he is super bullish to be fair, but he doesn't see any disagreement with that. it is about bond yields have probably bottomed and cyclicals are likely to bottom out this year. it's about the value trade and exit tech. i think there is momentum behind that story, that the question is it really peak delta when you
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see that data out of china? tom: that is the question, and the other question is whether other variants are starting to rear their head, and whether we can cope with that. manus: let's check in on the markets. five days of misery in the u.s. has been brought to a halt. nasdaq up 1/8 of 1%. is that part of the call? it hasn't really transferred yet. time to cut your tech and trade the reopening. it is not present in the call yet. asia up one third of 1%. china grappling with evergrande. the gas markets squeezed. and you want -- yuan stoic on the back of the evergrande story and the pending haircut that could come to retail investors and bondholders. tom: let's switch focus to the u.k. now.
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employment data out today and it appears of brexit and covid are creating the perfect storm in the country's labor market, manus. manus: indeed, vaccines have hit a record high. there is a mismatch between people out of work and the skills needed in the post-pandemic economy. supply chains showing signs of strain as he jobs like truck drivers remain on staff. lizzie borden reports. lizzie: brexit and covid have worsened the trucker shortage in the u.k., wreaking havoc and leading to shortages on shelves. conditions for drivers are so bad that even after bonuses from supermarkets, cannot get new recruits, and attesting backlog slowing the data of those that can be persuaded to sign up. with about 1.6 million people still on furlough and a warning about spike in on employment when government support ends,
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how hard can it be to train a lorry driver? i am here to find out. how long it take a person to retrain? >> four days and then you test. lizzie: what is the problem, why do we have a shortage? >> there were issues prior to covid like the aging workforce, people retiring and no new blood. covid exemplified that. 2020 and 2021 training could not be done. it is taking licenses a long time to catch up on the backlog. >> we are not getting the drivers we need at the moment, and because of brexit, a lot of the drivers we had here from elsewhere went back home. >> getting new blood in, it is relatively expensive, about 4000 pounds, and it is putting potential drivers off even though in the end it is a
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well-paid job. >> i lost my job because of covid. i actually enjoy it and i am doing really well, i am excited to get my test. lizzie: the big question is whether companies will permanently raise wages to attract workers, and if they will pass higher costs onto the consumer. if they do, you may see the bank of england hike interest rates sooner rather than later. tom: lizzie joins us in the studio now. you have an on the ground feel for how this is impacting drivers. how does it flow through to the u.k. economy? lizzie: in the case of truckers, even though some supermarkets are offering bonuses, there are still shortages on shelves and some tailors worn that could last until christmas. -- some retailers warn that could last until christmas. you might see companies raise
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more wages, but the question is whether that will be passed on to consumers and we will see that in inflation data tomorrow. manus: lizzy, that is your moment to go viral in that test. -- vest. i just wonder how clean the data is today because we still have furlough and that is a point. furlough will mask the data. what do we expect? lizzy: you are right, we are expecting payrolls on vacancy to have risen, but you have the rise in coronavirus cases in the months that will have weighed on development. the question is what happens when the furlough scheme ends. there are still 1.6 million people on furlough in august. many of them will end up
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unemployed. eager headache than unemployment -- a eager headache than unemployment will be getting those people into jobs because of the mismatch between the skills they got and the skills they need to fill the vacancies. if that retraining takes time, the slack in the economy will reduce inflationary pressures, push back when the bank of england needs to hike rates to the third quarter of 2023, in oldman's -- goldman's view. so they will be weighing the data carefully ahead of the september meeting. manus: it has transitioned to the new normal, we will not go back to where we were before. thank you very much. you can pick up that package on bloomberg.com. let's bring in anna rosenberg, the head of europe and u.k. at sigmund global. thank you for joining tom and i. i am drawn to lizzy's commentary
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on the data. we have a skills gap. it takes time to fill a skills gap and furlough inns at the end of this month. my question is simple -- is the u.k. economy fit for purpose in terms of the skills the labor force have in a post-covid world? good morning. anna: good morning, and no, i don't think it is, less to do with covid and more to do with brexit. i think we are clearly seeing the problems of the new immigration policy combined with the effect of covid and it simply is not working. the u.k. has two labor shortages specifically, and it is the lower skilled workers that immigrants used to do, it specifically european immigrants when it comes to truck driving specifically, many of those have gone back and they will not come back and it comes to the prospects in the u.k., but you also have a shortage of highly
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skilled workers in the higher income brackets that are also not coming back because the u.k. has become a less attractive place and prospects are very uncertain. even today, the immigration policy is not clear for these workers. then you have the problem the education sector in the u.k. does not train people for these jobs. the labor shortages are going to stay around for at least i would say two years, until you can retrain u.k. workers and ñ u.k. can fix immigration -- and until the u.k. can fix its immigration policy. tom: outlined for us, what are the policy prescriptions the government could enact that would resolve and tackle these issues? anna: sure, first and foremost you must attract immigrant labor from poorer countries, people willing to do jobs that are underpaid specifically that u.k.
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workers are not willing to do. either from europe or beyond. that is the first point. the second point is that you must train the local workforce to bring the skills that are needed in the market, and that is education reform that has to be realistic. both from secondary school level two apprentices -- to apprentices to university education, it just must be more proactive coupled with the needs of the economy and not necessarily based on degrees that are interesting and nice to have not necessarily value added when it comes to the economy. manus: we have just seen a tax hike go through with a very substantial majority for the conservatives and boris johnson. that is political capital in the house of parliament. where are the next series of tax hikes come from? is a wealth dividend?
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is it capital gains? where is the pain tolerable in the u.k., more tolerable in the u.k. for the next set of hikes? anna: i would expect capital gains tax. we have heard rumors about this a while and it has not happened yet, so i expect this is where the next hike would come from. and as you point out, and this is interesting, this tax hike just seen was considered political suicide for johnson but he got away with it. they say that he could sell ice to an eskimo. he is good with messaging. we have seen a tax hike that was promised not to happen, and i think we can expect more tax hikes and capital gains is one way that is plausible in the not-too-distant future. tom: capital gains could be on the cards for the u.k. conservative party in terms of
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additional taxes. when it comes to the vaccine, the delta virus and the pandemic, the fact we have a relatively high percent of the population vaccinated but also a high percent that has had covid, where does that leave us, the proximity to herd immunity and the economic benefits if there are any of being to that point? anna: this is a fascinating point. the u.k. has in the way been a guinea pig for the world and having high levels of vaccination but also allowing the delta variant to run loose. compared to other countries, especially in europe, the u.k. dropped all social distancing measures, including face mask wearing. it is still in place in most continental european economies. as a result, you have a very active policy to get as many people infected as possible. that has a human cost and daily deaths are at about 300, higher
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than the continental european average. the upside is the country is likely to achieve herd immunity much faster than any continental european country. and as a result, they could get back to normal much faster as well. it is a somewhat risky strategy but so far it has worked well for the u.k. and we have not seen caseloads rise as fast as anticipated. this could mean the u.k. economy will get another boost because things could get completely back to normal quicker than neighboring countries. tom: a silver lining for the u.k.. thank you you, anna rosenberg. let's get to the first word news with simone foxman endo ha -- in doha. simone: president biden will host the leaders of india, japan and australia next week. among the topics, countering china's spending influence in the asian the first in person
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summit for the group known as the quad will help biden's goal of making the region a top priority for foreign policy. they will also include the pandemic and climate change. norway's pro-oil labour party is on track to oust the conservative led government. after an election, the coalition headed by a billionaire looks poised to secure a five state majority in parliament. the victory means a social democrats and lead all of the nordic governments except for iceland. intuit has agreed to buy mail chimp for $12 million in cash and stock, uniting two providers of services there's -- services for small business. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am manus cranny in dubai, tom mackenzie in london. -- says the foundation will be more careful in what they tweet after an announcement about a partnership with walmart. >> in terms of our foundation, there is not much we can do. people can release fake news on
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cryptocurrencies. this is a traditional problem. >> global newswire came out with a statement saying they are enhancing authentic pain -- authenticating steps. they said the incident is isolated and never happened before. as you said, the release was fake, said the quotes were fabricated and somebody on the social media team a little too eager when they retreated this. -- retweeted this. to those who might suspect someone on your end is responsible, what would you say? >> definitely it is not anyone on our end. being a decentralized cryptocurrency, pretty much anyone if they want to -- using
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fake news. we will try our best to stop fake news from spreading. >> what internal compliance changes are you making as a result of today's events? >> we realize how powerful our twitter handle is and we want to make sure we don't retweet fake news and we want to check before we tweet anything. that is something we need to improve on. tom: litecoin's creator there. coming up, a former london-based glencore trader says he funneled millions of dollars to african officials. we discussed that bloomberg take story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." ok, when antony stimler left glencore in 2019, he had two big secrets. for over a decade, he had paid aliens and bribes to african officials -- paid millions in bribes to african officials, and he was helping a u.s. investigation. let's get to will kennedy. what is the court case against a man that was once one of glencore's most senior oil traders tell us about the company and the broader commodity trading industry? >> it is an industry that has long had problems with corruption.
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it operates in many developing economies that have big problems. this has shone light into how the industry operates and how he says sanctions from his managers that he paid to get oil cargoes on faithful terms, and the reporting shows a lot of that money was funneled to the then nigerian oil minister. the link course ceo said all of the people -- glencore ceo said all of the people involved are no longer with the company. and the company is no longer using intermediaries, people they pay commissions to who use the money to bribe officials. that has long been a contentious issue for the industry. many of the world's biggest
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traders have cut back on that way of doing business. it does shine a light. but traders would claim they had mended their ways. manus: it is a really and story, will, and a great read. let's get back to ground zero, the oil market, goldman sachs with a furious note about the spike in gas markets that wheeze into oil markets. there's also the view about what ida's impact has had in terms of inventory. put the two together for me, will. will: it is a question of supply and -- strained supply and strong demand. ida had a big impact and it has taken a long time to recover, more so than recent canes. as of a couple of days ago, production remained 50% lower.
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now we have another storm, albeit in a different part of the gulf of mexico, hampering us getting back to normal, and possibly more disruption. that is the supply side. on the demand side, the global demand for energy very strong in age. -- indeed. the fears we had over the summer appear to have dissipated. in europe especially, as people get back to work and school. china is back to what it was, india is recovering strongly. across the world, a strong demand picture and strained supply picture. people, crude had been a laggard, but i think people feel this is a fairly bullish picture right now. tom: presumably the elements ties into the views of jeff curry from goldman who said oil prices could explode from here.
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the significance of this call from curry and his team at goldman? will: jeff has long been bullish. he sees the prospect of prolonged tightness in the oil market and he has also been bullish about the commodities complex more broadly as we come out of the lockdowns and economies recover. i think he would point to the strength of demand for industrial goods, but i think he would also point to the last financial crisis, and we did not invest in financial capacity. i think his view is now that is catching up with the commodities markets and we may see some explosive price action as a result. manus: there was a warning just a few weeks ago about europe better prepare for a gas country -- gas crunch.
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♪ ana: good morning. welcome to bloomberg marksers the european open. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. we're counting down at two critical inflations facing out of the united states later on. will it move the needle on expectationses about the timeline from the set? protests breakdown is ever ground debt crisis deepens. advise ors to explore all feasible solutions to ease its
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