♪ tom: good morning. i'm tom mackenzie. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe and these are today's top stories. stocks and u.s. futures hold steady. guggenheim's scott minerd him warns the fed may hold off on tapering due to risks over the debt ceiling. quarantining at home, astray this most popular state eases travel rules. the fda is set for a crucial decision on booster shots.

plus, watch for anything spooky in markets today. it is triple which, and goldman sachs estimates $3.4 trillion of equity options are set to mature. and we have a terminal chart that shows that volumes are near their highs for the year as we lead up to the u.s. close and that triple witching feature around options and futures in equities and the index space, as well. goldman sachs flagging options in terms of shop -- stocks of around $3.4 trillion. what this tells us about market sentiment will be in focus. volatilities the name of the day when it comes to the play through into the equity space. let's check in on the markets across asia. you're seeing modest gains across the msci asia pacific. it's a mixed picture in china. japanese stocks are in the green, the futures in europe

pointing to further upside, .6% after closing in the green yesterday. it was travel and leisure that were top of the list in terms of sectors. we'll talk about the commodities pressure shortly. in terms of the u.s., they are flat. the nasdaq closed higher, s&p lawyer -- lower. jobless claims increasing stateside. iron ore, look at that level $ 105. it will drop below $100 in the next couple of months. the focus is on what's happening in china, particularly around the property sector. this squeezes continue. demand from china is looking softer for iron ore. we can show you the price action year to date as well. it has dropped iron ore, the record from july, by about 50%, ubs flagging $100 for iron ore. to the basic resources, material

space is important, down eight successive days. let's stay on the story, asian stocks rising, bounceback following four great days of losses. here to wrap up the latest moves is the chief china market correspondent, sophia. what are we seeing, one of the key takeaways in asia? sophia: key takeaways, a bit of a rebound in hong kong. we're looking at the retail sector here with ever grand contingent risks really spreading. we saw country garden, which was china biggest -- china's biggest property developer. another stock to watch has significant exposure to the sector, heading for the biggest decline since the august 2015 deval.

big liquidity operation from the central bank in china, which injected the most short-term cash since february, making sure banks had enough cash in case of a liquidity squeeze caused by, as you mentioned, a slowdown in the real estate sector ahead of the four-day weekend in china. tom: sofia with the latest in china. importance of focusing on the risks spreading to the market. thank you indeed. we continue to track the record break run in the record breaking run in energy. and gas prices across europe started to pull back. signs the relentless rally is prompting energy intensive energies to curb consumption while supplies are starting to improve. let's bring in isis armada. what is driving this pullback? in the context, we're still far away from levels of prices we

feel comfortable to many in the industrial sector. but they have started to come up. >> i think it's clear to the market the only solution to avoid a crunch in the winter will be slowing down the function. that's what we've seen, with some companies making the decision to shut down industries. we've seen basf, that produces most of its power, saying the rally in energy squeezing its profit. we've seen the food industry complain about it. the realization of the markets is that there is going to be demand, otherwise there is no solution. tom: interesting. i'm flagging this as a risk, clearly that points to the importance of this. thank you very much with the latest on the energy story. let's go to what is happening on the vaccine front. australia is making progress in

its covid vaccination programs, some good news. one of the biggest logistical exercises in the country's history. let's get more with michelle cortez. tell us about how vaccines are progressing finally in australia. michelle: it has taken quite a long time for australia to get on board with vaccinations and that's because they had very little coronavirus circulating in country so people didn't feel compelled to get inoculated right away. now up to 70% of people and australia have gotten their first vaccine. we are starting to see some easing of the most strict curbs on travel and arrivals into australia. people in new south wales, sydney are going to be allowed. there is a pilot program, 175 people allowed at home. that's good news for australians

of broad trying to get into the country. tom: what is the importance around the decision around boosters? michelle: the fda is going to be looking at whether or not boosters are something they should be giving to the 180 million americans who have already been double vaccinated. the key issue is how quickly are they? efficacy wanes over time and the idea to give them full protection is a logical and desirable one. on the other hand, we don't have data on how safe it is although there have been no signs yet. billions of people around the world haven't gotten there first shot, so there's questions about whether the fda would recommend giving three doses to some people while others have none. meanwhile, the biden administration says it wants to start rolling it out. so we're seeing a race between

the fda and the biden administration. tom: ok, met michelle cortez, thank you very much. let's get the first word news now with laura wright. laura: iron ore chief founder said she fundamentally disagrees with the finding of the report she applied pressure on world bank star from china's wrangling in an economic report when she worked there. italy is to require all workers to have valid covid passports for the toughest vaccination requirements in europe. the so-called green past showing vaccinations past infections or recent negative test marks a victory for mario draghi. staff and companies face fines of as much as 1,500 euros for noncompliance. beijing joined a trade pact once heralded by the u.s. as a way to isolate china in the region. china made a full application to join the cpp on thursday. the u.s. abandoned the original deal in 2017 under president

trump. the u.k. signaled it wishes to join. all members need the agreement of all 11 members of existing nations. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: laura, thank you very much indeed. here are the events you might want to mark in your diary, eurozone cpi, year on year is expected to rise to 3.3% from 2.2%, important one you're thinking about considerations to by the ecb. that's inflation picture. we are going to get sentiment, expected to rise to 72 from 70.3. coming up, how could contagion from ever grand hit the wider market? important, crucial question. we're going to put that mliv question two -- of the data our

guest host. germany decides the ceo briefing. this is our special program with the ceo's of deutsche bank and sap. it's available on bloomberg.com or on youtube, too. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. happy friday. this is doom -- number daybreak europe. i'm tom mackenzie. intervening amid signs of increasing contagion risk around ever grand. this is as prices facing that bit of data is fueling concerns over the nation's property sector and credit market.

the pboc injected $30.9 billion of short-term cash to soothe market nerves. joining us now is maria from state street bank. thank you and good morning. thank you for joining us this friday morning. how acute are the problems around ever grand? how much focus do you and your team have on this company and the potential for systemic risk within china's financial sector? maria: good morning. i have to say we are quite concerned about china. i wouldn't say it's just evergrande. it's quite a few factors at the same time. for the stock market specifically, a big concern of the biggest part of the market. there, i have to say authorities working against investors. that's a big concern. big tech companies seen as cash

cows or governments, prosperity, objectives, and that kind of direction of travel. in terms of effort -- evergrande, we see substantial underperformance. i suspect companies probably would not be allowed to go bust, but investors are not enjoying the ride. but yeah, regulation is a really big risk in china. investors are watching very carefully to see if there are any kind of advance. our central scenario is probably it won't go bust. tom: central scenario is it won't be allowed to go bust, but people seem to be a scenario many are starting to think about now. which assets are most vulnerable, if that comes to play? maria: i think you probably want

to stay out of china for some time. and as i said, it's not just evergrande. it's a broader issue of regulations. the kind of -- you can think of chinese stocks and mostly tech, and compare performance of chinese stocks with u.s. tech, you can see why there's diversions between the two. so to me, it seems that it's very specifically a chinese issue. regulation specific. but so far, it doesn't seem to spread out of china and i think that's encouraging for bigger global investors. tom: interesting. maria: but i think the message is absolute right. tom: something is the broader crackdown on property and the fix on iron ore, and the prices there. to what's happening in

australia, as well, the currency in australia. how should investors start to think about how some of the ripple effects are now coming through from the actions in beijing and how they need to reposition around that? maria: yeah, so in terms of our portfolio preferences, you mentioned china is one of the least favorite places. the second least favorite place is vm asia, another region we like to watch. but again, interesting to look at in terms of earnings expectations and those that took place as china, australia are two countries with the weakest expectations. a number of clients and commentators have asked, those markets have really underperformed by those markets.

there is bad news already in the price. our suspicion is that it's not. we still continued to downgrade. we still continued to see risk in that region. so staying out of asia, and trying to find better places in rest of the world, like the west, like europe. those markets are quite interesting to us. tom: we want to get your views on the u.s. and europe in the next block, so you're going to stay with us. in terms of the asia space, what are you looking for, whether from a policy front for a corporate front to make that region attractive again? marija: stabilization of iron ore, prices really help because that's quite important for australia. but in terms of resolution of ever grande would be great. the pboc has tools to help and

support should they choose to, so it has the potential solution. so far, we don't see much hope on that front. tom: ok. marija stays with us, from state street, get your views from the u.s. and europe after the break. coming up, the latest data out of u.s. retail sales. what it means for markets.. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> build back better. that's the promise is a ventral candidate joe biden made to voters over a year ago. >> it's time to reverse the priorities in this country. time to help small businesses and the federal government spends taxpayers money. we should use it to buy american

products and support america jobs. david: and that's the plan president joe biden laid out to congress starting last march. but from the beginning, he insisted he wouldn't just borrow to get it done. we had to figure out how to pay for it. >> the investments i'm proposing will be fully paid for over the long-term by having the largest corporations, including the 55 corporations that paid zero federal tax last year, and the super wealthy begin to fair -- pay their fair share. david: and this week, we got specifics on what it will take to pay for what the president wants. it may not be as dramatic as the fashion statement made by alexandria ocasio-cortez at the gala this week, but would be the most sweeping set of tax increases in nearly 30 years, including raising the top rate on personal taxes, increasing taxes on capital gains, and imposing a 3% surcharge on anyone making more than $5

million a year. and it's not just individuals who would get hit. the top corporate rate would go up to 26.5%. there would be new levees on overseas corporate income, and carried interest breaks so beloved by private equity would get cut back further, applying only if you hold the asset for at least five years before you sell it. not surprisingly, democrats and republicans see these proposals very differently, with president biden's chief economist climbing the corporate tax changes would bring more investment ensure. >> the court values the president put forward would reverse the trump tax cuts and get this corporate tax reform right so that we are encouraging more incentives domestically. david: while republicans worn these hikes would make american industry less competitive. >> they would be crippling for mainstream businesses. certainly they'll land on working families. but in portly, we are going to drive u.s. jobs overseas. trying to fight our way out of the pandemic, it is the biggest

economic blunder i've ever seen a country make. david: it's a fundamental clash of wills and philosophies. but with a democratic majority in both houses, it looks like we're in for a change. the question is, how big will it be? tom: on this edition of "wall street week," david westin wraps up the week in markets. staying in the u.s., the lid is retail sales shows surprising -- latest retail sales shows surprising strength. the labor market recovers. still with us is marija from state street bank. marija, you are bullish on u.s. equities. you are trying to delink growing growth from the earnings story. just unpack that for us. marija: yeah, i think that's the really exciting part of markets

right now. we're potentially seeing growth. i wouldn't worry about economic growth. you probably always expect to give basic tax and things like that. it's not like we're collapsing. in terms of earnings growth, we see important factors. one, analyst earnings forecast. they continue to bear great for this year, the next year, the year after. cyclical textures, cyclical regions, and stock analysts see this recovery continue. we're not seeing any signs of peaking yet. so that's quite interesting. and i expect a lot of this has to do with the idea the stock market is a lot more manufacturing, good oriented, as opposed to a service oriented economy in general. so one of the concerns about

peaking is coming from covid variants. people have to stay home a bit more. that hits the economy far more than stockmarkets. the stock market is more global, as well. we can take a better beat from other economies. that's what really excites me. it's probably a long-term trend, this idea that both corporate and consumer, that exit the recession in better financial condition they got in. i don't think it's ever happened we come out in a better condition. it took us 10 years to recover to previous levels in terms of consumers, disposable income and things like that. what happens with the recession, people build up huge balances, company seeking a pile of catch. they can invest -- cash. they can invest. tom: we saw that in terms of the retail sales, the surprise

number out of the u.s. yesterday. that cycle that you highlight, where are we in that cycle? marija: i think we are very, very beginning. it's quite common for strategist to get really excited about capex because what we had is more of a decade of not divesting, but not investing enough. it was really the technology sector that was the only sector that would increase investment over the decade. industrials, manufacturing, spending on have come down -- on capex have come down. so we do need to invest. politicians like to talk about infrastructure investment. corporate's, as well, aging capital stock. what i'm trying to say is that

we have managed to do it. that's really exciting. tom: just briefly, the i.t. sector is your favorite pick at this point. why? marija: the i.t. sector has been my favorite pick for years. i like it because it's uniquely positioned, able to grow its earnings. it's past growing stable earnings. that's rarely happened in financial markets. you either have fun growing sectors, very volatile, or very stable but slow growth. earnings, very fast, very consistent. it's at a high price. but the problem will come only when it's going to come up. tom: we'r runninge short of time. we appreciate your insight. happy friday. marija from state street, thank you very much for joining us.

surging energy prices grip more of the globe. we examine where this leads. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: good morning from london,\ i'm tom mackenzie. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe and these are today's top stories. stocks in u.s. futures hold study. scott minerd warns the fed may hold off tapering due to risks over the debt ceiling. quarantining at home, estrella's most populous state he does -- australia's most populous state

eases travel restrictions. plus, watch for anything spooky in markets. yes, it is triple witching. goldman is to many $3.4 trillion of equity options are set to mature. ok, let's check in on the markets. some modest optimism across asia, a bit of a mixed picture when it comes to china and hong kong, really the tech stocks listed in hong kong that are on terror. you can see that, up 3.4%. the context is that these companies have been under pressure, but the likes of jd and nate one are very much in vogue as we head towards a national holiday in china. futures in the u.s. are flat. jobs came in slightly higher than estimates. guggenheim suggesting maybe the tapir is going to be pushed back to december on the back of a wrangling and washington. iron ore is one to keep an eye on, ubs saying you were going to keep the $100 in the next few

months, current session down. year-to-date, iron ore, you can see the picture. from july, that is when we got the record price in july, looking at a price drop of around 50% for this raw material . this squeeze in china on the property sector in the second largest is a key factor for assets globally, but of course australia, the currency, the markets, and the budget in that country. governments are enacting various measures to tackle the surge in energy prices to limit the impact on millions of households. in many instances, short-term solutions are coming as plans accelerate the green jens vision. -- green transition. joining us is an analyst at ubs, in the weeds on this subject. sam, thank you for joining us. let's start with a question of pricing as things stand. two days as prices of gas come off here.

you expect that to be sustained. sam: i think -- first of all, thinks for having me on the program. we're certainly in a remarkable moment in terms of power prices right now. it's a bit early to say we're going to have sustained correction. if you look at where we are in power for this winter, at the moment, prices are three times where they were six months ago, even if you look ahead to next year. prices in many of the big markets double where they were at the start of this year. but i think the first thing i want to say is this is not really about climate policies. you hear this is about renewables, but i don't think that's right. we'll be talking about what is causing the problem right now. tom: let's get to that than. what is causing the problem? people coming out saying this shows the vulnerability of relying on intermittent renewable energy.

you pushback on that view? sam: i would a bit. it's true we had across europe over the summer and this month, but i think what you're see here is a much bigger, more old-fashioned question of supply and demand. we've got a big increase in demand this year thanks to the vaccine, thank goodness, economies around the world opening up, including asia, where you're seeing gas demand coming up steeply. we've got some big bottlenecks on the supply side, and the other thing really important here, we have a long, cold winter last year. what we're doing is we're trying to meet higher demand, also trying to fill up our storages for the winter at a time because of the global recovery, less gas to go around. so, there are a few other things going on, a doubling of the carbon prices, but i think

supply and demand is the main point here. tom: what do you make of the government response so far, not just the u.k., but across the continent? yousef: -- sam: i think it is an important topic for the government. our consumers from the impact of these increases. we've seen different reactions in different markets. in the u.k., a few years ago, we introduced a tariff cap in the retail market and the government had to go through the process of increasing that tariff cap. that's the job the energy and retail industries have to do not. in spain, we've seen the opposite. we've seen intervention took law profits back from -- to claw profits back from the industry. and i think in spain, a lot of debate about the way the government is proposing to do that, whether there are going to be some companies that are unfairly penalized.

we'll have to wait to see how that shakes out. the other market everyone is looking at is italy. the approach might be very different than it is to spain. tom: is this a setback to that push, that shift to renewable energy? sam: i don't think so, no. think about what we're talking about here, gas prices mainly. and that's the old-fashioned energy market. we had lots of the renewable management teams saying renewables have a lot to offer in terms of the solution. the cost of wind and solar have come down very steeply, down 90% or more, and renewable prices can be long-term contracted and much more stable than old-fashioned commodity prices that we are used to. there is a chance as we go forward and rethink the way our energy markets work that

renewables can be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. tom: i know you've got a lot of detail and data on this, but which sectors are proving the most difficult to decarbonize? sam: well, yeah, that's a great question. and i'm going to start by saying not the energy sector. there is a huge challenge. we have to take the capex we spend every year, the investment we make every year in the oil and gas sector and we've got to move that into clean energy. but there's clearly a kind of roadmap in front of us for making that transition. what i'm saying is, with a little bit of a stretch, you can imagine is building a cleaner energy supply for the world. the issue is, who is going to use that clean energy supply? we have to get cement, chemicals, steel, buildings, and heavy transport to switch over, as well. one of the points we have been making at ubs is the investment

requirement outside of the energy sector could eventually dwarf the investment requirements we've been speaking about in energy. that's where the big money is going to be needed. tom: there is crucial word there, could. what gets us from could to will? sam: well, we need some plans. every country in the world has a target. and behind the target, we need to put plans for policy regulation, market instruction and so on, to deliver the climate targets that we have. some progress in the last year, particularly in europe, on setting up a plan to deliver the climate. but even in europe, the 55 plan, the plan to take european emissions down 55% the next 10 years. that hasn't been adopted yet. that's just a proposal. but you can think about this in the context of carbon price. there is not a global carbon

price right now. but if there was, the one we would need to get us on track for the climate target would be at least $100 a day and rising 5% and rio turns every year. -- returns every year. that would take you $5,000 a turn maybe at the end of it. tom: sam arie on the importance of making that energy transition happening, in the weeds on that subject. thank you very much indeed. let's get the first word news now with laura wright. maria: -- laura: the toughest vaccination requirement within your. the so-called green pass showing vaccinations past infections or a recent negative test marks a victory for prime minister mario draghi and the right wing party. from october 15, staff and companies face fines of as much as 1,500 euros for noncompliance. imf chief says she fundamentally

disagrees with the finding of a report that she had the staff china's raking in an economic report when she worked there. she's accused of putting undue pressure to adjust china's rating in the doing business report when she was chief executive. the report became so controversial, the world bank announced it would stop producing it. president joe biden's vaccinations plan is the first of two crucial tests today, when fda advisors meet to discuss them. the white house would like to begin offering a boost to all vaccinated adults starting next week. some health experts caution the administration is rushing ahead without enough data and regulatory oversight. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: laura wright in london. retail sales data is down today. we take a look at what to

expect. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm tom mackenzie. u.k.'s retail sales data for august have come out today, and it's expected that the reopening of the economy is helping bolster sales for clothing retailers. that's as they are looking to update wardrobes and they get ready for the return of school and colleges. let's get to our reporter for what to watch out for. i imagine that you've been out there updating your very suave and sophisticated wardrobe. >> i'm not going to lie, i have been doing shopping whilst i've been here, but we are expecting retail sales are going to be

rising, the expectation is north of 3.7%. a lot of that is clothing as people repaired to get back to school. less casual wear and more dresses for social occasions. but while we're seeing retail sales for clothing driven higher, we are seeing digital sales, online sales, actually falling a big drop from a year ago as we get the vaccination rollout. it's not just the u.k. you can see on the chart here, france and germany. pretty big drop. it's also a tough story from a year ago. everybody was stockpiling. what we are seeing is cpi, this blue line is starting to pick up now, a lot driven by rising producer prices, this white line. this is expected to boost those margins for growth as they pass on those costs to consumers, and

then some. but it is a road for retailers, a lot of headwinds on the horizon, whether it is demand from covid resurgence is, supply chain issues, inventory issues, and inflation. i dig into inflation a little bit because we have a survey that handles 50% of the credit and debit spending in the u.k. they expect about two thirds of customers saying they expect prices and everyday items to start rising. that, along with the bank of england saying three per 4%, that could hold a threat -- 3.4%, that could hold a threat. tom: and question marks of whether the bank of england will push for rate rises, possibly more than one, as well. thank you very much for breaking down what to expect in the data later out today. focus on bloomberg quicktake, about a group of people, men and women, teens and

twentysomethings who can spear online conversation about life tax, beauty, and holiday blockbusters. this been influencers -- the spin influencers are the most sought after content producers on the unit. you found in your reporting, some of these guys and girls are making $5,000 a year doing this. what are they doing? >> $500,000 are more than some junior bankers are making. what they're doing is partnering with major financial firms, startup firms, to plug some of the new services that have really exploded in popularity during the pandemic. we know that retail investing has really surged, and this is the coming together of two trends, that retail trend, but the influencer trend, which we see in less regulated industries. tom: how widespread is this? charlie: it's growing.

two firms have partnered with some of these finluencers, but we've seen a lot of first movers attract a lot of the attention and more portly for them, money. even a single post on tiktok can bring a finluencer $20,000. tom: not bad for a couple minutes work. what are the risks? charlie: huge risks. misinformation runs rampant on a lot of these platforms. you've got good actors, but you've also got bad actors that are trying to make interesting content that may not necessarily be true. sometimes we'll see things saying here's how you become a millionaire selling dog beds online. we probably know that's not the best way to increase wealth. so misinformation is a real risk. tom: you're not betting on dog beds. charlie: i am not. tom: regulators taking a look at this? charlie: interestingly, the law

that governs who can give financial advice actually dates back to 1940, -- they didn't know about tiktok back then, i don't think. so, there are some risks here, kind of going against some of this regulation. but some client's departments are looking at the risk. tom: all the caveats around risk, give us some names. charlie: one of my favorites is called misses dow jones. she teaches about products. she compared compound interesting to the rise of billie eilish's fame. she also taught people about bitcoin by comparing it to the romance of ben affleck and jennifer lopez. tom: amazing. i love it. thank you for breaking down -- that down for us. worth checking out on the terminal for us, but also bloomberg.com.

coming up, we're heading into the final weekend, the final weekend of campaigning before next week's election in germany. we'll get an update on where the race to succeed merkel stands, and what it means for any coalition talks. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what will miss a little bit in the whole election campaign is the clear outline of european and german growth agenda for 2030. >> at the moment, we have a coalition that needs to have a plan for the next 10 years of how they're going to be as effective as they used to be. >> we have to strengthen the eu's competitive position and to use all the funds that have been set up now in order to cope with covid and to recover.

>> we can only be competitive also here in europe if we also transform our industries. tom: those were some of the key voices from the worlds of industry and business in germany speaking to bloomberg francine lacqua. and you can much terminate decide ceo -- you can watch germany decide ceo briefing. that's on the bloomberg terminal. let's stay with that story. it is the last weekend, a little over a week to go until germany heads to the polls and finally decides. the leading candidates are intensifying their campaigns ahead of a final debate that's coming sunday. there comes as new policies at the spd cementing its lead at 26% of the vote. let's get more from maria tadeo, who has been following all of this in germany, but now is onset in london for us. how open is this race? is it open at all given the polling? maria: nice to see you in

person. yes, this is the final week of campaigning. we had that debate of sunday. charles schulz has won every debate until now. we do see the campaign is very much intensifying on the ground, those events pretty much happening every day. it's also interesting we are talking about the other candidates, which really tells you -- tom: right back a few weeks. maria: she was in the running. and now we don't even mention her, so that tells you about the greens. they peaked and weren't able to sustain that momentum. but in terms of how open this is, we know this is an election that's running very tight. the spd is leading, but the margin of error is very tight. an election like this can change things. but also it's monday, september 27. that's where it will get very difficult because it's very slick stack, and the coalitions are not obvious.

i wonder when markets have priced that it. this is a three way party coalition. two parties is a mess. can you imagine three? tom: i want to ask you about the polling in germany. the polling in the u.k. has been problematic for a number of years. do they have the same issues in germany? how reliant can we be? maria: problematic, i would say that's an understatement. tom: i was being generous. maria: but you make a very good point. in germany, they tend to be accurate, but every time i speak to pollsters, they say look at the margin of error. it's key. 26% of vote, 22% of vote. the margin of error, four points up and down, can really change a lot in an election like this. you could be in a position where you have the big one, the second 121% of the vote, and the third one is 18%, and then good luck forming a government. tom: what are the prudential -- potential hurdles than? -- then?

what could undo it for him in the last week? maria: yes, and this is completely, to think olaf scholz is leading and the spd is running this election, when i got back to berlin at the start of august, people would have thought that's a joke. there's no way the spd can win the election. it doesn't show what a disaster this has been for the cdu, but it shows the different dynamics in the election. in terms of olaf scholz, it does seem like he's on autopilot to win the election. having said that, a lot of the german political commentators i speak with, they say that grilling on monday is probably not going to be very significant. this is incredibly complex. there is no evidence to suggest he personally got rich from this. and it also seems like the cdu move to make this -- make him look bad. the timing of this in a region the justice minister is a cdu member -- tom: may end up backfiring for

them. maria, as always, great analysis. olaf scholz on autopilot for the moment, at least. maria is going to keep us across that story. maria tadeo, thank you much indeed. coming up, eurozone cpi comes in at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time. make a note of that if you are looking to boe and its rate views. and the fda hears booster shot arguments for the white house vaccine plans, the controversy around that. triple witching day in the u.s. market. we'll be watching for increased volatility, goldman sachs pointing to $3.4 trillion in equity options that will be expiring. finally, russia heads to the polls, voting continuing until sunday. let's quickly check in on the data before we let you go, last few seconds of the show here. across asia, seeing gains across .2%, the technology sector in china back in vogue, at least for the moment, posting some

significant upside. the futures in the u.s. are just holding onto gains. iron ore remains in focus. that's it for bloomberg daybreak: europe. the european open is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets "the european open." the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. the debt ceiling drama is back. scott minerd warns the fed may stop tapering due to risk from washington dc. china's top forecast sees gdp growth near zero in the third quarter due to virus curves. the