process. >> i think it does matter the tightness in the product market. >> if inflation gets unanchored, they can push a risk that we are mostly on edge for. >> all of these economic interdependencies look increasingly likely and that is what we are seeing. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: it is turnaround tuesday, for new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro and together this morning with ailey lines. licia bomb whites -- lisa abramowicz is taking a couple days off. we bounce back by 9/10 of 1%. tk, i have no idea where you are but we have to bounce back in this market. tom: the long and short of it, greenwich, connecticut. i'm here harborside with the big yachts and hedge fund players

and investors. we do see is the rebound. what i want to go to is the emotion of the last 18 hours and you look at aj at barclays and he says this is china's lehman moment and barklay says no. jon: not even close the words out of barclays. how any times have we heard this through the morning, it is not lehman? kailey: a lot of confidence on the part of analysts and strategists that china will not let ever grand collapse entirely. that is coupled with the rating downgrade again from s&p overnight saying a default is all too probable and they do not expect china to directly step in and help of a grand. there's -- help ever grand. jon: you have to acknowledge the economic impact is a big one. that is what were going to talk about. i'm not sure choosing mostly stream benchmark is a useful one to discuss whether we should be worried or not. clearly there will be economic impact in china and some people arguing -- most people arguing we already see it. tom: maybe it is a global

interdependency coming off of a boom economy and china is front and center but to your point, it is about 6% a percent real gdp becoming 3% or 4% gdp and that will be a theme here at the greenwich economic forum. mr. calio will stop by and speak of bridgewater strategy. jon: looking forward to him a little later. let's get to price action. your equity market is bouncing back on the s&p 500, biggest one-day law since may. equity futures this morning, 39 points higher. we bounce back by .9%. eels came in yesterday and bounce back a little bit this morning, up two basis points. euro, little strength. 117 point 38. positive .1%. kailey: and we have a brie down in crude. a lot of that is impact with the

evidence of hurricane ida and that may be felt when we get housing data for august at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. i'd it will come on the tail end of the month but it will be interesting to see how much thickens -- the supply constraints and labor shortage of raw materials impact builder sentiment. we got results after the bell yesterday and that company missed their own forecast because of shortages. we will see about that economic data at 8:30. at 9:30 a.m. eastern time, we will get the speeches at the u.n. general assembly. traffic is back in new york and that is because of the u.n. biden is beginning to speak. he is making a day trip but it will be his first speech he is delivering to the u.n. general assembly, emphasizing the u.s.'s re-entrance to the global stage. after the bell, we get earnings from fedex and this follows the announcement from the company yesterday they will implement their biggest rate hikes in 10

years because of a lot of issues they are dealing with. the company citing a challenging operating environment. it will be interesting to see how much that environment impact quarterly results. jon: how many residents of new york city enjoyed this week? kailey: zero probably. jon: pretty much number be -- much nobody. jon: pretty much everybody will grown like tom keene does. tk, we have to talk about this equity market bouncing back .4% up 40 points are now in the s&p. i do not think this is a lehman moment, ubs, citigroup, we do not see the crisis for china's lehman moment in barclays? it's not a lehman moment, what is it? tom: if is not a lehman moment, it is about a financial shock and it is a huge part of the psychology and behavior of the chinese system. what will be interesting and john mentioned this, with

interest-rate stability, there was a linkage yesterday. there is no question we move from idiosyncratic to contagion. it was mild when you look at important benchmarks like euro swiss, dollar-yen and particularly in the yield space is a major theme at the greenwich economic form will be yield dynamics and the zero bound. we are still -- we are still there and i thought yesterday went smoothly. jon: let's get an outlook from the chief investment officer. steve, 4800 on the s&p year-end, 5300 year end 22, and that is bullish. what is the road to 5300 year-end year? steve: it is the same story we have been telling. at the same time that we put the piece out by the way, we cut our equity exposure down from 60% overweight to 50, warning people we could be entering a 5% to 10%

correction we think we are in the middle of. i think you guys have covered well corrections but once we get through that period, what we are looking at is three important things. one is economy is going along nicely, earnings numbers are coming up, you have 240 on the s&p on earnings and earnings will drive markets. the other factors, the global economy is playing catch-up. a lot of these other countries are starting to kick -- companies are starting to kick into gear. on the u.s. side, we have been delayed with delta, but it for us it is when not if in terms of when the components of the u.s. economy on old really start to kick into gear. everyone has been [indiscernible] and that's being reflected in this correction. itches coming, just a matter of time. but that together and we think we are still in mid stages of a long-term secular growth.

we are in a rocky period. kailey: you think ultimately it is a correction that will be bought? stephen: yeah. this market has been way stretched and way overdue for a pullback of any kind. a lot of times, the psychology requires you to watch out -- wash out some of the weak hands as like -- as i like to describe it. they have to create the base for the next advance and we have not had that of late. this will test some people's patience and that i think will be a positive sign. the china news is not that surprising. ever grand was trading at eight since on the dollar going into this. china has been almost every week now addressing what it uses long

structural issues with their economy and they play for the long haul these guys. now the short-haul. they went after gaming, after cram schools, the tech sector, now they're going after real estate. they will take over ever grand is my guess. they have plenty of money to do that. didi i hope the sound -- tom: tom keene in greenwich. i hope the sound does not bother you. jon ferro and i are fascinated on with you as a lonely guy thinks of hedge fund strategies that are zero bound. you have substantially outperformed a lot of fancy hedge funds trying to do fancy things in a new credit environment. what are your thoughts on what you're trying to do -- what they are trying to do? is it doable to arbitrage zero bound? stephen: i have a lot of friends

in the hedge fund business and they are all smarter than i am. i think they doing a wonderful job at what they're doing, but i look at the raw material available in the market and you've got stocks that are growing with the economy as i say 7% a percent return per year -- 7% to 8% return per year. cash may be around [indiscernible] so that is the raw material and i do not understand why you have to give someone to 22 put that back together and leverage it for you when you can do-it-yourself. jon: are we talking about ridge water without talking about bridgewater? stephen auth, is that what we are doing? i will leave it there. tom: glad you bring it there.

for a non-global wall street, this is an interesting set of conversations with mr. auth come along only, conservative institutional money and you have nora vini coming up with his emotional dependencies -- in dependencies and ray dalio has a lot of questions and answer about the strategies forward. this goes back to davo two years ago, an important conversation. jon: important in china as well. bridgewater constructive that story, particularly himself. tom: i think the china story is important. you have a new book coming out and we talked a lot about yesterday -- talked a lot yesterday that we will advance that question. i want to advance china given the financial structure of the nation. jon: what you think "bloomberg surveillance" would be like if we adopted the transparency of bridgewater? so we could offer our thoughts

like tom keene on a daily bases and maybe on-air as well, with that work? kailey: i don't know if it would work but i bet you and tom of all people could make it work. back to tom's work about china -- tom: kaylee, shut up. kailey: sometimes you criticize me for talking about your age, sometimes my compliments don't work. jon: you criticized tom about his age? kailey: i haven't but he always things i am. jon: this shows going to be great. from new york city with tom keene over in greenwich and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: greenwich, connecticut. jon: i'm aware. i did not think you made it to england this year. tom: we are not at gmt. jon: greenwich, connecticut, tk. you made it out there. dirty eight on the s&p, up .9%. this is your bounce back on the yield coming i couple of basis points yesterday, up a couple basis points today, and later, we stay on top of the global story and catch up with lawrence boone of the oecd, the chief

economist. from new york city and greenwich, connecticut, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news i'm ritika gupta. prime minister justin trudeau in canada one a third term but fell short of getting the majority he was seeking. that mean the lip -- means the liberal party will have to rely on other parties to get legislation passed in parliament. the conservative party once more of the popular vote for the liberals. jerome powell has a challenge this week to convince investors the plan to scale back asset purchases are not a one way to raising interest rates. fed policymakers begin their two day meeting today. they are expected to taper the fed's $100 billion in bond purchases. . boris johnson says there are too many domestic priorities to negotiate a trade deal with the u.k.. the two leaders speak in washington.

a trade agreement with the u.s. was billed as one of the points of brexit and he said he would rather have a good deal than a quick one. japan's biggest lender will sell the retail banking unit u.s. bancorp's. that's about $8 billion of mitsubishi. bancorp says in the deal, union bank has about [indiscernible] shareholders in shell are getting an unexpected $7 billion payout. the company promised to give them .75% of the proceeds -- 75% of the proceeds. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is a company-based --

company based in china whose activities are overwhelmingly centered in china. we are always monitoring global markets, obviously from the department of treasury primarily, including the assessment of any risk to the u.s. economy and stand to respond if needed. that monitoring would happen primarily from the department of treasury. jon: jen psaki on the story of the moment, the white house press secretary, from new york city, alongside tom keene and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. price action, the bounced back from the biggest one-day law since may. it is turnaround tuesday, up 35 on the s&p, advancing .8%. yields yesterday higher this morning up two basis points to 1.3277 as we kick off a two day fed meeting concluding tomorrow with a news conference for chairman powell and full coverage on bloomberg tv and radio. euro-dollar positive by .1%. a stronger euro, 117.38 -- 1.738

-- 1.173 eight. it's travel, you can come back as an america from europe and elsewhere and you are welcome if you have been vaccinated. the parent company of british airways up more than 4% and absolutely flying over the last five days. excuse the pond. -- pun. finally we open up travel into the united states of america. jon: i was in a watch store and they still time x -- cell timex and a few other brands and they said this will have a profound effect on their business. they were a static over the headlines we saw. we come to you from greenwich, connecticut and in new york with so many eyes on washington and the fractious politics. i've gotta go first, joe mathieu, to what john has been following which is the travel. what does the why here? why did president biden act now versus acting before? joe: it's a great question and i think it has to do with timing.

look at the job this president has i had and speaking to the general assembly today as he calls -- has ahead and speaking to the general assembly today as he calls the strength of our oldest alliances following the withdrawal from afghanistan and the flap over the submarine deal with australia. the optics are interesting. there been a lot of questions about the timing of this announcement and we have not heard much from this white house but i can only agree with you guys in questioning it as this has been a major issue on this very program as well. tom: what will he do in today's speech as he speaks to his fractured democratic party. joe: the optics are really something. when you consider it is his first address before the general assembly, knowing the backdrop of the speech, the headlines i just mentioned here, and it is all happening in the age of covid. this president will be wheels up around 2:00 in the afternoon and will be following a brazilian president -- imagine there is a vaccination van parked in

front of you and bolsonaro, a brazilian president probably unvaccinated, and will be the first to speak. you might recall the former president of venezuela suggesting he smell sulfur in the restroom when he followed president george w. bush. i can only figure joe biden will spell clorox. jon: i don't want to go there. i do want to go here though, the broader approach from this president. i think you have touched on the heart of the issue, president biden said america was back. the allies waited, looked around, started to see the fish is being made and wondered whether america was back and what that meant. how does he follow up with policy, with substance to convince the europeans and others america's back in his words. -- words? joe: i will be curious to hear the language of his speech. what we heard on the cut of jen psaki talking about ever grand, competition not conflict. that is what we hear coming from the white house. the president will try to shore

up alliances but also go out of his way to make the point we are not about to enter a cold war with china. that climate change is something for instance that we can work on together. president xi jinping is not in new york and it is unclear what the president will lead with. just look at how he is book ending today. he has a bilateral meeting in the morning with the president of australia. after he comes home, he is sitting down at the white house with orest johnson which speaks to the priorities of this white house. jon: you know how scripted these events can be. are there any deliverables set up for this event? joe: it is quite remarkable. the president will be leaving at 2:00 in the afternoon. sure he spent the night but normally there are all types of sideline meetings, some spontaneous and they bring in the press will. you get a couple of cuts and that will not be the case today. it is the one president of australia sit down and back to washington, d.c. where he sits down with the prime minister of britain. it will be a brief trip. you can say the stakes are high

but it is unclear what if anything the president will leave with. he has to come back to deal with major domestic issues on capitol hill. kailey: let's pick up on that point. you have chuck schumer and nancy pelosi trying to tie together the debt ceiling with a stopgap spending bill in order to prevent the u.s. government from shutting down. if that does not work, is the blowback greater for those democrats or republicans? joe: kind of right where we have been this whole time, it is interesting. they could have come up with this deal a couple weeks ago. i understand there will be a vote today. the rules committee will finish their vote in the house. everybody knows it is d.o.a. in the senate. there's an opportunity for republicans to weigh in and they will say no, they have been in lockstep with their leadership on this. democrats want to hang the debt over republicans, the line we got from chuck schumer was this is the ultimate dine and --. dine and -- of historic proportions -- dash. dine and dash of historic portions.

democrats might have to go alone with reconciliation or another stand-alone bill we don't know about it. they need to pay for this government starting in nine days. the clock is ticking and they do not have a lot of time to figure this out. jon: great to catch up as always. good to hear from you and get to see you. john matthew there, host of our show on bloomberg radio. wish we had the pitches for this, we will bring this later. the brazilian leader outside of a new york pizza joint in the last one he four hours. kailey: the rule here is you have to go present your vaccine card to go eat indoors. he got his new york slice but he had to eat it on the sidewalk. jon: no diplomatic immunity? kailey: nope. jon: wouldn't it be nice to sit down with brazilian leader here in new york city and have a slice of pizza? we could do a program or picture

this, a table for two on the side of the harbor in greenwich, connecticut with the moon shining brightly and an empty seat waiting for the man you love and adore, jonathan ferro, on the others of you taking in the surroundings of a beautiful morning in greenwich. it looks so romantic. tom: it's a full moon and chinese moon festival today. we are celebrating it here. we have had shots of vodka starting at midnight but we are having moon cakes here brought by dunkin' donuts and we have a beautiful full moon. jon: i miss you. i'm pleased you not cheating on me and keeping that seat open. thank you. that looks real lonely, that picture. i can't wait to see what people do with that on twitter. can we take the picture again just given the -- give them the opportunity? tom: that's true. jon: look at that. that is special. that is special. [laughter]

tom keene, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz back in a couple days. equity futures up 38, advancing .9%. yields higher by a couple basis points. tk, it looks so lonely. i am with you, buddy. from new york city this morning -- tom: you wouldn't believe what they have parked in the grand banks. ♪ banks. ♪

and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow! -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people, my wireless is crushing it.

that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and save hundreds on your wireless bill. plus, save up to $400 when you purchase a new samsung phone or upgrade your existing phone. learn more at your local xfinity store today. in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.

jon: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is turnaround tuesday in this equity market. the s&p advancing .9%. it's bouncing back from its biggest one-day loss since may. next i futures up .7%, the rustle up as well. it is tough to get through the week. the federal decision -- fed meeting tomorrow, we still -- this is a snapback, little bounce back from yesterday's big move lower. switch of the ball, a similar story in the bond market. yesterday yield in, haven demand, we reverse it a little bit, yields a by a basis point or two. 1.3260 on tens.

just outside of this story, let's spend some time on what is happening elsewhere. let's get to the airlines, in europe, take a look at this. ihv up 3%, -- iag up 3%. up 25% in five trading sessions. the news yesterday that this country will reopen things for foreign travelers if there unvaccinated, unlocking a big rally in those badly beaten up airlines. this has been shut now for 18 months? americans have been able to go over to europe, there has not been reciprocation. now we unlock the story, the one part of the cyclical trade once more. tom: you and me in manchester united on october 30, we will be able to take that, no question. on a better economy, dynamics

and gdp and particularly the denim -- the dynamics of inflation, the oec in paris, a chief economist joins us now with a transient report on where we are and where we are heading for 2022, laurence boone. wonderful to come up with you again. how transit walk is our inflation -- transitory is our inflation moving forward? laurence: thank you. it is nice to catch up with you again. thanks a lot. it means three things in english if you allow me. the first one is we have a lot of supply bottlenecks due to the fact that the world is not being vaccinated enough. if we vexing, that should go away. transitoire also means that we have a surge in demand. we had a lot of fiscal support

and we have passed the peak. that means it will also fade away. when we have more clarity about how policymakers deal with inflation expectation but so far that is what transitoire is going into the beginning of 2022. tom: i look at the report and it is a report of optimism. we see market economist tweaking here and there. what is the element of economic growth most mysterious for 2022? laurence: there are couple things that are very mysterious for 2022. more than that actually. in economics, there's a lot of uncertainty, as you know, out there. one again as the vaccinations. as long as we won't have vaccinated the planet, the risk

of a variant that is scarier is possible and that will pull us back into 2020 with restrictions on economic activity. another huge surge of and certainty is inflation expectation and we need both central banker and fiscal policy makers to give clear trajectory on monetary policy to make sure those inflation expectations we were discussing remain anchored. that is at least two uncertainties. i'm sure you have many others. jon: we have a ton. let's start with inflation and build on your forecast. you have hiked 21--- 2021-2020 two for the u.s. and you're ok -- u.s., eurozone, and u.k.. you were talking about guidance. i want to understand the policy

starts you would like to see together with the story with the inflation outlook. laurence: thank you. i think these are two very interesting questions. in the short-term, and economies in the one you mentioned, it is clear we are not back on track at fully. we still need those policies, monetary and fiscal, to be accommodative. but we know we are getting closer to the trend we had before covid crisis, so these policies will have to evolve. there is no one-size-fits-all, but we need at least two things, first indication of [indiscernible] and second, conditions on the economic viability and what will make the policymakers move. the last thing is fiscal policy will not last forever.

we have climate to address which will require resources. governments need to plan on how they will adjust in the future in euro two for those challenges -- in a year or two for those challenges. jon: let's talk about china, what on earth is going on in china right now? laurence: so the chinese authorities, as you know for a while, have been trying to rein in the loans that support the real estate sector, and we have always been they need to be reined in. it is rarely a smooth ride when regulators are trying to adjust some of this xi credit -- excess credit. the really important things to look at is what is the possible contagion effect on the rest of the world economy. right? i was standing the fact that this is very early to be able to

assess that, when we look at this in the past, on the economic side, you need a prolonged shock and china to have any impact on the rest of the world. on the financial side, there are too few connections between china and the rest of the world, but this is a risk we are monitoring. kailey: but china could have an outsized impact on emerging markets specifically, even if not for developed markets like the u.s.. does what is happening there risk exacerbating growth that you reference in this outlook? laurence: i think a number of emerging markets are sensitive to china. look at commodities. there's a lot of commodities that are being exported to china. you can name a few of them, especially lately in america for example. so yes, a prolonged slump which would have downward impact on those exports of commodities

will definitely harm them. we do say in our projections at some of the emerging markets [indiscernible] kailey: obviously part of what is happening in china is an effort toward decarbonization leading to lower seal production. we have the yuan meeting on climate issues for and center on the agenda. how do you factor that into your growth and inflation expectation when thinking about decarbonization effort? laurence: i think it puts a finger on the next biggest challenge in one of the reasons why we are insisting fiscal policy must enter into some kind of guidance like what monetary policy has been doing for now more than a decade. also because of the cost of the climate transition. i think we should be truthful to ourselves. this will be costly and costly for big finances and we will also have to look at the impact on inflation.

take for example spain. a huge chunk of the -- we have made is because of prices. it is important to know there is a shift in the price, not a shift in inflation. that i think is the message we are also trying to send this morning with our update. jon: it's the message chairman powell is trying to send as well. no doubt he will do the same as well. thank you for being with us, laurence boone, oecd chief economist. your equity market bouncing back .9%. one single name to watch, news and the last couple minutes come on uber. kailey: uber is now tracking toward an adjusted break even in the third quarter. that would be the first ever third quarter profit for this company. it once reported a quarter loss of $5.2 billion are merely due to a gross bookings recovery as we emerge from the pandemic care. you see a big spike in the share

of free market trading shares up at the bell at the moment. jon: news out of j&j as well. let me bring it to our audience, from our colleague, a booster does of j&j's covid-19 vaccine provided 100% protection against severe disease when given to month after the person i collation according to widely anticipated data that suggested it increases the potent of the one-time shot. a bit more news on the vaccine front. tom: and what is important there is the drip of it. there are real worries, that are tangible, we are up to the deaths in the pandemic we saw in 1918 and that is an important statistic. far more is this story, that story, now the j&j story showing signs is working. jon: looking forward to catching up with a mission doubt a -- ame sh adaljia. good morning to you worldwide,

this is a story for u.s. equity markets. it is a relief rally, turnaround tuesday, call it whatever you want. equity futures up 36 on the s&p, bouncing back from yesterday's losses on the s&p 500, up .8%, yields turning around as well, up a couple basis points to one point -- 1.3 280. this week is not over. never mind the crisis. we have a fed tomorrow and interest payments due thursday for those bonds. tom: we have offended tomorrow? jon: we have been day -- we have fed day tomorrow? jon: we have fed day. on the federal reserve decision and a bonus round with kailey leinz. lisa abramowicz decided to skip a day -- skip fed day. she enjoyed yesterday so much with the market down, she thought she would take today off with equity futures down. good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: i am ritika gupta. new data shows a booster does of johnson & johnson booster shot provided 100% protection on severe disease to month after the first shot. the j&j vaccine is given in one shot does unlike the two shot inoculation of other vaccines. in canada, justin trudeau faces the prospect of another fragmented power meant -- parliament. his liberal party fell short of the majority he was seeking, meaning he will rely on more parties to do his left-leaning agenda. house are taking a risky showdown with republicans. it will include a suspension of the debt ceiling and spending bill needing to keep the government open past the end of the month. republicans have said they will not vote to raise the debt

limit. all of this could be leading towards a government shutdown at the end of the month. fedex plans to raise its delivery rates by the most in a decade. the average cost of package delivery will increase 5.9% at both expressing ground units. transportation costs have been rising because of strong demand with high wages for drivers and warehouse workers. shares of universal music group soared by 43% in the stock market debut. the stock began trading days after the u.s. recorded music sector, recorded strong sales growth driven by a surge in streaming. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> getting the whole world vaccinated is not just an altruistic effort, it is

strategic. if we want to stop variance development, not just in this country but around the world, where we have the uncontrolled transmission, that is will you -- where you will see new variants. a variant anywhere in the world can be anywhere at all. jon: from new york city this morning, good morning alongside tom keene and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. here is the bounce back in your markets. equities are firmer, higher on the s&p 500, advancing .8%. this is a turnaround, basically turned upside down. same in the bond market, yields higher, lower yesterday. as we kick off a two day meeting for the federal reserve, tom keene in greenwich, connecticut. i have so much runway to play here. can we take this shot again? it is beautiful of tom malone at a table for two. you know that -- tom alone at a table for two. remember that song, if we could play that going into commercial

break, that would be beautiful. tom: this photo describes my social life. [laughter] this image, it is really -- lisa was going to come but she had to do -- jon: did she? carry-on, tom. tom: governor lamont, i have a lot to talk about the governor in connecticut in taxes across this nation. we will do that across surveillance this morning. i have a grandmother born in 1907 and she would tell us stories of the pandemic in 1918 and for 25 to 30 years of our privilege of being with her we said so what. the so what in this new humility is the pandemic of 2020. a doctor from johns hopkins joins us now. the washington post says 600,000 americans. we have as many debt as the 1918

and our population is bigger, one in 500. compare the we are lindsay of this pandemic with what you -- fire lindsay -- virilency of this pandemic with what you have. >> the flu virus has a higher mortality rate and sheer numbers if you were to be infected but what i think is most significant is in 1918, they did not have modern hospitals or critical care medicine and antibiotics and any knowledge of infectious -- the knowledge we have infectious diseases. they did not even know influenza was caused by a virus. the fact we are approaching the sheer number of deaths now in 2020-2021 when we have antivirals and vaccines and mono critical care, when we know so much about the biology, that is inexcusable.

we should not have 1918 level pandemic because of the tools we have and i think that is the lesson, that we made this as severe as it was. it was the human factor that expanded the ability of the virus to kill. tom: doctor, they did not have our social and less than social media. where they advantaged because they did not have the messaging of the unvaccinated? dr. adalja: they did not have a vaccine at that time for flu anyway, but it was something that did have a lot of controversy, not the same thing a social media but there was censorship going on. world war i was occurring and many of the countries involved in the world had their -- war had their press writing things considered unpatriotic -- not considered unpatriotic. in world war i, their press was free to write about it. so they didn't have people that were kind of making up lies about it. there were anti-masks leagues,

protests against masks, but i do not think we saw the voice of the dark ages hijacking 20% tree technology to spread misinformation. -- 21st century technology to spread misinformation. kailey: we have news earlier this hour from johnson & johnson that's said a booster shot of their vaccine prevented one her percent of severe disease. should we be treating j&j boosters differently than those of mrna vaccines? dr. adalja: not necessarily. what we want to see is more data. we knew the johnson & johnson was conducting a to go study. some people argued maybe the johnson & johnson vaccine should be two doses. protections which is still strong against severe disease that you get with one shot of johnson & johnson can be increased by making it a two does regiment. we will have to see what the data shows and what johnson & johnson plans to do in terms of going to the fda to either

modify their vaccine to make it a two doses shot or say we need boosters at a certain point in time. this will be a debate playing over time -- playing out over time with data. kailey: another debate is the debate on travel restrictions for those entering the u.s.. there's a question on the timing of the announcement from those from the u.k. or you're coming to this country other geopolitically driven are scientifically driven given it comes at a moment when we are dealing with another surge. do you think it was a scientifically sound decision to make this announcement now? dr. adalja: i do think it was scientifically sound. travel restrictions do not keep viruses outside of borders. you know that from the beginning that when they were travel bans in place, the virus was spreading in the united states. you have a lot of technology, not just vaccine, but rapid tests. you know how to take care of people coming in from a different country to make sure they do not harbor the virus with testing. americans are going around the world, using these tests to get

into other countries and i think this is something long since coming and something we could do with testing, with proper knowledge of people's vaccination status. i think this is a good step forward and something that should have been done earlier. jon: doctor, a lot of people agree with you. i will not give my personal view. dr. amesh adalja, senior scholar from johns hopkins center for health security see -- security. when we started in little pieces from airlines, we will see how much bookings have exploded in last 24 hours. tom is going home for christmas trade away, booked the flights. tom: it will be interesting to see the dynamics of what it means to profitability as well. i had a ratio on business class versus economy, and well over six dollars to one. i have never seen that, the demand for business class. you wonder with this huge demand, does the economy finally

really pick up? jon: there is a big hole to climb out of. i ag, london trading up by a little more than 3%, the parent company of british airways. elsewhere, if you are waking up stateside this tuesday morning, we have the turnaround many of you anticipated. this week, it is far from over. these issues are far from addressed. up 37 on the s&p, up .8% or .9% from s&p overnight. likely defaulting, "we believe beijing will only be compelled if there is a far-reaching contagion causing multiple major developers to fail and posing systemic risks to the economy." kailey: an running counter to what we heard from a number of strategists saying china and beijing will step in and not allow this to happen, not allowed to be china's lehman moment. tom: do you know what i just learned? jon: what's that? tom: the market never goes down in greenwich, connecticut. jon: is that right? you just found out?

tom: it's amazing. [over talk] jon: ray dalio coming up with tom keene little later. tom: we will open up bridgewater. jon: a representative from ubs coming up shortly. stay on top of the markets right here on bloomberg. ♪ here on bloomberg. ♪

it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one.

move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

>> i never want to see a down market, but i do think this is a natural part of the process. >> i think it does matter, the tightness you are seeing in product markets, if it continues for a period of time. >> the risk we are mostly on edge for is this rising inflation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this week is getting interesting. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. "bloomberg surveillance this is, -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." this is your bounce