tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg September 22, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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lift off. haidi: ever grand on edge. the ceo says the developer crisis is concerning but the fed is playing down contagion risk. shery: an exclusive interview with--on a supply chain disruption. futures slightly higher, the s&p 500 saw their best day in two months, concerns over the easing of concerns over ever grand, but those gains faded as we heard details about the fed taper plan. the relentless flattening of the 530 yield curve showing the markets are seeing rate hikes moving closer. the 10 year yield holding up at 1.30 levels. as chair powell started speaking, we saw losses fading. more strength for the dollar, same story for gold.
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we have seen some losses that reversed as chair powell was speaking, on wti at the moment under pressure, $71 a barrel, after a jump in the new york session. we had a broad market lift off but crude in the u.s. falling to the lowest since october 2018, commodity still at the 97 level. it is all about monetary policy this week, it was not just the fed, we also have a brazil centrum bank rating a decision that 20 minutes ago they raised the rate for percentage points for the second -- four percentage points for the second month, 6.25%. they are also signaling a rate hike in october, not surprising given the fed is moving and inflation. that is your bar in orange, nearing that 10%. higher than the central bank
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target, but that might have been inflation concerns. what is happening in the u.s. has led the fed to be more hawkish than people expected. the statement was vague that chair powell came out. there were comments as being more hawkish. we are watching for any move that may come as soon as november and scaling back of asset purchases to be completed by mid 2022. officials also revealing a plan to raise rates next year. haidi: there have been speculations as to whether the fed or jay powell will consider the risk of ever grand and he did address it. he said this seems like a situation that is particular, idiosyncratic to china. he pointed out china has high levels of debt or an emerging market. when it comes to the u.s., he says there is little direct
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exposure he can see, corporate defaults in the u.s. are at low levels right now but he did put out the caveat that he would be concerned that whatever happens to ever grand, if it continues to disintegrate it will affect global financial conditions. that is why we continue to see or have seen the macro contagion connections with the likes of iron ore. shery: analysts asking what was that statement that was vaguely worded by the unit of ever grand, investors have a lot to deal with as the markets open in asia. what are you watching? sophie: more clarity around ever grand, but after china moved to ease concerns, we did have some metals getting ground, iron futures jumping up on the back of the update, rising from a 16 month low. they have lowered their price estimate for next year by 45% to
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$91 per iron ore. pulling up the chart on the terminal, markets coming online after a break. the kospi above the 200 day moving average, we may see down pressure this week as well as pressure from china. wednesday we had this up, the growth forecast upgrading the outlook for china, south korea, trimming to -- trimming projections for southeast asia. we are seeing recovery across the region. divisions in taiwan, the philippines, no change expected from the central banks. haidi: tapering may be coming and rate hikes not far behind, fed chair jay powell signaling reductions. also a growing inclination to raise rates next year. >> it will be in dutch
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appropriate to remain the current target range for the federal funds rate until labor market can -- conditions have reached levels consistent with the maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to exceed that. if that continues as expected, the committee judges a moderate taper may be warranted. no decisions were made but participants view that so long as the recovery remains on track, the tapering process that concludes next year is likely to be appropriate. half of participants forecast these favorable conditions will be fulfilled by the end of next year. as a result of the median projection of the federal level of the funds rate lies below 2022. haidi: let us bring in kathleen hays and our next guest, director of the mpa program and
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economic program management at columbia, patricia mosser. kailey: -- kathleen: jay powell said the taper could end by the middle of next year. at the same time, the dot plot, the interest rate forecast showed that nine now see the first rate hike by the second half of next year. is the fed tilting more hawkish? patricia: i think they are. that seems pretty obvious. i think they were concerned at the slowdown in growth over the summer. they have been encouraged. i think they started to signal this a little earlier than what perhaps the market consensus was. there were signals at the last f1 see meeting that the taper could be moved into this year or
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early 2023, and it was forecast to be much later. the next meeting seems likely and in the q&a chair powell was clear that in his opinion it would take a mediocre jobs report to discourage him from that view. he described where the labor market was. which he took in his definition to be substantial progress. in getting back to full employment. the timing seems to be very steady if i had to guess, of the taper. a standard, slow timing over the course of it months. kathleen: so you do see some risk, and the risk to the downside is we could see a considerable spike in the delta
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variant that could have an impact on the economy in slow things down? patricia: right. both the statement and the press conference alluded to this. a covid resurgence as everyone starts to back indoors in winter in the northern hemisphere, in my opinion is a real risk. that could lead to economic slowdown. if the slowdown is big enough, and persistent enough, with an fomc pause in their taper, they could easily. if they decide they don't want to -- they want to continue to give the same level of accommodation if the economy is really backtracking in a significant way. i think this is a significantly bigger risk than it was when the fed tapered the last time in 2013, 2014. haidi: what is the timeframe we look at for transitory?
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we are continuing to see these a stretched out supply chain disruptions happening globally. patricia: that is a very good question. the information and guidance in the statement provided today, the second risk is less likely but the inflation uptick accelerates rather than slowing down. the supply chain disruptions are more profound and long-lasting than what the fomc expects. let me pause and be clear. inflation is going to be above the fed target, you can see in the forecast it was going to be above the target for a while. trans or a tort -- transitory increases in inflation is rather -- measured in quarters, not weeks or months. so far it has been five months, which is absolutely truly
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transitory. and it could persist for quarters. if you look at the forecast, they are expecting inflation to be above the target next year. that does not seem to be accelerating their plan for raising rates that much, a few months but not a lot. here is why. i think they are serious about letting inflation run hot. not too hot, but hot. and perhaps for quite some time. haidi: the ever grand risk, jay powell was measured in responding that the main risk is the confident channel globally. is that big when it comes to the strength of chinese demand? patricia: i am not 100% sure it pertains that much to the strength of chinese demand. i do think the confidence channels in financial markets could be affected. one would hope those would be temporary. it is very much an internal
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chinese financial institution issue, but bond markets are global. chinese bond markets less than some others, they are definitely global. this delivers to bond markets could be there. i do agree with chair powell that i don't think it is that large. unless there are a lot of hidden, similar risks elsewhere. this is always the problem with a the weather bad piece of news -- a bad piece of news, who else might have that risk? and once that starts, everything gets scrutinized more closely and people look for risk all of the place. could slow things down. i don't think it is a huge risk, i agree with chair powell but it is a risk. haidi: a pleasure having you, patricia from olympia, let us get to vonnie quinn with first word headlines. vonnie: treasury secretary of the u.s. months mostly to assist
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with negotiations of the debt ceiling. she contacted leaders from banks including jp morgan, citigroup and wells fargo. u.s. funding could be exalted in october. sources tell us she is asking the business community to pressure republicans into supporting raising or suspending the debt ceiling. president biden once wealthy nations to donate more covid shots and deliver them to poor nations faster. he announced another 500 million vaccines to send a, pushing the total pledge above 1.1 billion doses. they laid out other goals including vaccinated -- vaccinating 70% of the world in a year. the late stage trials of its covid shot showed some cases. it is the first vaccine data that offered clear efficacy against the variant. the trial data also showed it
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prevents risk of any severity by any strain including gamma and mu. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: another big vaccine develop it, the fda plans to authorized a third dose of the pfizer biontech vaccine in the official announcement could come in the next few hours. ahead, our interview with panama's commerce and industries minister about supply chain concerns, the economy and the vaccine rollout. but another day, another ever grand drama. on edge with a vaguely worded statement, bond interest payment ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: a question many investors are grappling with as china's ever grand faces interest payments. it has rippled across international markets, the travel developer did not help matters with a vague statement trying to clarify its coupon payment timeline. let's cross over to hong kong and stephen, what is ever saying? >> this is a day we have circled on the calendar for some time, whether ever grand will default. they have a 30 day grace. -- grace period. we are focusing on today, thursday, the 23rd of september, to see clear signs whether this developer, this indebted
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developer will default. ever grand put a statement to the market yesterday trying to clarify its resolution on the yuan dominated bond payment due today. it opened up a lot more questions than answering. they said the home. real estate, ever grants on store -- they said the real estate, ever grand's onshore group, they said the interest payment has been resolved via negotiations off the clearinghouse. that means bond interest payments are usually in china pay through a third-party clearinghouse. however, this indicates they went directly to the creditor.
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it did not clarify how much interest would be paid and raised a lot more questions. again, we come to the d-day, debt payment day today. haidi: it raises the question whether this is dancing around the postponing of the inevitable, without labeling a default. could this happen as we wait for beijing to announce details of a major restructuring? >> that is what we are all waiting for, absolutely. and you are right, the speculation is that this statement was put out so they would not have to be labeled as a defaulter even though they do have a 30 day grace period. there were no comments about the dollar bond interest due today. there is a report in a news website launch last year, citing sources close to the chinese government as saying ever grand will be restructured into three
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separate entities in a turnaround plan being finalized. this could be revealed within days. certain state owned enterprises will underpin this restructuring effectively transforming ever grand, a private company, into a state owned enterprise. haidi: stephen engle with the latest on ever grand, next, an exclusive interview with panama's commerce and industries minister on the global impact of the supply chain disruption. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ramon e. martinez de la guardia. thank you for joining us, i know you are busy with the u.n. general assembly. i want to ask about shipping cost disruptions, how does that impact the canal? ramon: this year at the canal is going to break the mark of $2 billion to the panamanian state. it is doing well because of the extension of the canal that allows for chiefs and that makes up for the other firms we can see around the world. shery: that extension have been a few years ago but now we have huge shipping costs rising. shippers making record profits. is there any plan to raise tolls? ramon: not for now, but at that point, it comes to one of the plans that we have also for the recovery of panama.
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trying to take advantage of the tendency and because of the problems you mentioned, to start or open an operation or production plan in panama and take advantage of a strategic, geographic position, we have five ports on the atlantic in two in the pacific. and stable countries with great connectivity by air and sea, and we feel panama has a lot of potential to help companies in this supply chain trouble we are encountering. haidi: the country is expected to return to growth this year after downgrades and downward pressure on the economy last year. is the investment grade at risk? are you concerned about that? ramon: these are difficult times of the world is living, but imf, the world bank, panama is going
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to increase its economy by 10%, which we believe is going to happen because our economy grows by 10% according to first estimates. haidi: we spoke to the foreign minister a few months ago and she expressed concern about the panama vaccine from pfizer and there may not be timely delivery. can you update us on the vaccination drive? you are over half. when do you expect a full opening and are you concerned that will be hindered by future variants? ramon: more than half of our population has two doses of the vaccine, we are using secure and effective vaccines. in the month -- next month, actually, we will have more than 70% of our population with two
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vaccines. that has been one of the keys of our economic plan for recovery, that strategy of having plenty of vaccine. we are going to open for tourists to visit panama and get vaccination in panama and allow them to see the other wonders panama house and take advantage of the vaccination plan. shery: the government is negotiating with a copper mine and you are trying to raise royalties. how much are you expecting to raise? ramon: we have been preparing a strategy for negotiating this with experts, international experts, and a good team of negotiators. we are positive we are going to make an improvement on the conditions right now with the
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copper mine. shery: tell us about that improvement in environmental, labor, and oversight was the government's plan, right? ramon: yes. we believe international practices right now, use for technology and different environmental plans that a mine has to follow. that is what we want animal copper to use. also, attacks and economic conditions that are sufficient for panama. because as it is now, the benefits -- but the company is sitting down with the government and they are also cooperating and know exactly the conditions in the markets are different in the world we have. we are positive we are going to get good results. shery: thank you for being with
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us, thank you very much the panama commerce and industries minister ramon e. martinez de la guardia ramon e. martinez de la guardia,. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.
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submarine order. president biden taken a more conciliatory approach, he and the french president spoke on the phone and he took a softer tone to smooth things over. he read for -- reaffirmed the strategy of france in the end of pacific, he also said it was the advisor's responsibility to let fritz know. haidi: australia plans to reopen its international border by christmas, lifting one of the strictest control since the pandemic. paul allen joins us with more. the irony is borders were closed when any -- hardly any cases were here, now that there is an outbreak we are hurtling toward reopening. how will this work? >> it's about learning to live with the virus and part of that will come with the reopening. australians can travel abroad,
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once the vaccination rate in a particular state hits 80% they can quarantine at home. that will open the door for migrants, students, and the english cricket team to tour this summer. as for tourists, unsure how that will be handled. vaccination passports are being trialed, the government in talks with other countries as to how that will work. it will open the door singapore, japan, south korea, u.k. and the united states as well. but that threshold of state-by-state vaccinations hitting 80%, we are doing well in new south wales, probably since november. other states like queensland, western australia lagging far behind. you could be in a situation where you can find -- flight from sydney to london but not sydney to brisbane. shery: it will reopen next month
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but only to those fully vaccinated, how is that monitored? >> in new south wales, if you are visiting a supermarket or other business, you scan it with an app and they get in touch with you if there is an outbreak where you have been. the plan is to link vaccination certificate to that app. the government is trialing this now, rolling out the trial october 6 but they might be late. we are due to reach 70% vaccination threshold and made up -- made october. some -- in mid october. some people describe this as a freedom day, you can eat at a restaurant if you are seated outdoors, have up to five people in your home. again, this would only the open to the fully vaccinated. shery: paul allen in sydney with the latest on the pandemic and australia. sources telling bloomberg the fda is set to authorize a third
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booster dose of the pfizer vaccine eminently. emergency clearance will be for people 65 and older and those at high risk. joining us is carol wetzel. what do we know? >> we are awaiting word from the fda about approval of a third booster, expected this evening out of d.c. our sources are saying it will be approved for people 65 and older, and those susceptible to severe disease and it is in line with the recommendation and fda panel made last week. it is more narrow than what the biden administration wanted, boosters for all people who got vaccines, but we are hearing the authorization leaves the door open for broader use of boosters for everybody as more data comes in on safety and efficacy. haidi: kara, is to get closer to children being vaccinated, we
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are getting positive data as to how antibodies can be passed to unborn babies from their mothers when they get vaccinated. >> yes, this is a new study showing that pregnant women will pass on some of the antibodies for their baby, which is a very positive sign. they have high levels of antibodies passed on. those are mostly toward the pfizer and moderna shots, mrna-based. shery: kara wetzel. let's get to first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: chair powell says they could scale back assets in november and complete the process by mid 2022. he left the door open to wait longer if needed and stressed tapering was not meant to start the countdown to lift off from zero interest rates. the fed dot plot reveals an
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inclination from officials to raise rates next year. >> we continue to expect it to contain the current zero took one quarter percent -- to one quarter percent, and continued with maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and on track to exceed for some time. vonnie: china announced plans to improve intellectual pop -- property protections including boosting compensations for losses with violations. social media will accelerate data, artificial intelligence. washington also accused beijing of hacking. taiwan has applied to join a specific trade deal china -- days after china sent its own request to be part of the agreement. the application was sent to new zealand. the president is joining the
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fact is a key goal for her final term in office. china opposes any move to deal with taiwan openly. the unprecedented spike in european natural gas prices, the ambitious plan for a green economy. concerns in slovenia about energy costs to all-time highs. ireland warns short time -- short-term solutions are needed to support the shift. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: ecuador says it does not see a shock for emerging-market countries from potential fed policy changes, as the country aims to complete trade agreements with the world's 20 biggest economies last year.
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i spoke to the president about the keenly watched the decision. flexibly increased in interest rates we can expect in the near future by the fed -- >> the increase in interest rates we expect in the near future by the fed would not only affect ecuador but all emerging markets. i do not think it will be a shock. they will do it with prudence in a gradual way that will affect emerging markets and within them, ecuador, without a doubt. i believe countries like ecuador are still attractive for investment. i would dare say the added returns on investment 10 to 15% remain attractive even if interest rates start to rise in the international market. shery: very important for your government, you are trying to get those free-trade agreements with the rest of the world including mexico, and you want to expand to the pacific alliance. can you give us an update on the
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progress you have made? >> we will request the entry of ecuador to the transpacific partnership, and we will do that immediately. we have also addressed ecuador's interest in signing a free-trade agreement with the united states with u.s. government officials and both republican and democratic senators who have visited our country. this should have been done a few years ago together with the columbia and peru, but it did not happen. because of the u.s., because of the ecuadorian government at the time prioritizing ideology. with china, i have spoken to president xi jinping. we set an ambitious goal to be able to sign a free-trade agreement until march of next year. which coincides with the launch of -- hopefully, when i visit beijing we can sign the treaty and in the meantime, our plan is
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shery: broadly green on the commodity space, iron ore above $100, up from the lowest close in 16 months, the futures from singapore already sold. copper surgeon, base metals higher. concerns over ever grand easing, boosting liquidity. we are also seeing sugar headed for the best week in a few months given that we continue to see that rally above 30% year to date, higher energy costs boosting the ethannol demand. coffee also higher, brazil cutting production for coffee and the boost in price which has gained already at about 40%.
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so if he is tracking oil in the morning calls. sophie: look at wti slipping the to -- below $72,. oil markets in the supply crunch, goldman calculating almost 2 million barrels of oil per day it be needed. global capacity is already constrained and if winter is colder in the northern hemisphere, that could push it toward $90 a barrel, $10 higher than the forecast. bloomberg intelligence flagged the possibility of oil faltering from opec as beijing is seeking to stabilize commodity prices. plus china could dampen because delta impact, a deleveraging drive with a focus on ever cash prices. bloomberg intelligence is
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suggesting that the value is at $50. haidi: we are going to speak with ever grand, and they say the crisis is a worry for financial markets. >> it would be my native -- naive to think that the market does not have the potential to have second order and third order impacts. clearly with the changes taking place in the ever grand situation, it is concerning. and there is potential for second and third order impact and the bond markets, but we have to stay close to that. shery: let's bring in dinny mcmahon, author of "china's great wall of debt". the argument would be domestic stability versus global macro contagion.
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are beginning to a point where beijing needs to do something? there are reports about the potential splitting into three different entities. turning it into a state or entity. dinny: it's fair to assume at least to some level of government would be involved in resolving the problem, but there's a difference between the government stepping in to bail it out now and getting involved in the restructuring process. ever grand and itself can represent everything china is trying to change about the property sector. it is overly in debt relative to peers, it has a history of financial engineering, it has diversified a lot of businesses that have nothing to do with property. the real value of ever grand is in its project, and i think that is what the government, the authorities will get involved to preserve. haidi: what is the balancing act between, this is a teachable
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moment, if they step and there is the question of moral hazard and what is the point of having these red lines. obviously, the undeniable fact that this is a social problem, this is going to have a huge impact on household wealth. what do they do to try and address those issues? dinny: it's a question of who they save and who they bailout. by focusing on projects, whether they encourage other developers to buy ever grand projects or whether local governments mobilize their local and state owned helpers to buy local projects, whatever the mechanism is, the priority is going to be preserve the economic ecosystem that exists around this developer. that is the suppliers, contractors. assuring they get paid. that is the problem with ever grand over the past few months. it really set off its debt problem. completing the project is essential to ensure the people
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who have already bought their apartments in advance and are waiting for them to be completed in order to take ownership, can they get what they have already paid for? that is the real risk, the real focus of the authority in terms of ensuring economic growth and preserving economic stability and social stability. shery: what happened to the billionaire? president xi jinping is looking at bailing out a billionaire, which might not be great. dinny: i don't think he will get bailed out. as i said, the creditors that are going to benefit from government involvement are going to be the small guys. i can imagine that the chairman and any other large equity holders of ever grand are going to find at the end of the day that their stake in the company is worth little if nothing at all. at the end of the day, you are not going to have much left over unless you have managed to hide
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it away, outside of the reach of the central government. shery: what happens to shareholders? dinny: i don't think they are high on the priorities of beijing. assuming ever grand does default and we start on a restructuring program, ever grand will be selling assets ever can, but the money that ever grand earns, the priority will be deploying those funds toward the projects. i think there will be a lot of pressure. the expectation that all creditors will be taking cuts, the banks in particular, some of them might go after equity stocks. but i don't think foreign bondholders are going to get special consideration. haidi: when you look at history, what we saw with hna, is that a reasonable template for what
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could happen next? dinny: i don't think it's a template but they provide good examples of what the central authority could do when it comes to dealing with a problematic firm. it's not just them, the authorities have been dealing with almost a revolving door of potential crises the last three years, bank of ginger, hna, who are wrong earlier this year -- huarong. they have been avoiding financial stability at all cost, they deployed liquidity wherever it is needed. in terms of managing potential financial instability, the experience in dealing with both companies gives us insight into the potential to control the fallout of ever grand problems that lead to financial
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boosting third-quarter outlooks saying it could turn a profit. we spoke with them earlier about how the company is managing driver supply, price surges were writers and food delivery in a rapidly evolving market. >> there is a revolution in terms of delivery of all things to your home, it started with food, it will continue with grocery, your iphone. uber eats has become a huge runway. there is so much to go, users want what they want at their home right now. it used to be next day delivery is also, now it's about next hour delivery and what we are doing is empowering any local merchant to essentially get anything that you want locally to your home within hours.
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clearly, eaters and users love it. we think it is going to continue over the next five to 10 years. emily: he revealed huber could turn a profit this -- he revealed that cooper could turn a profit this quarter, what is your prediction? >> the market is becoming balanced, in q2 the demand for moving around and getting things to your home was increasing at a faster rate than supply. we had to invest very aggressively to bring more drivers onto the platform, more couriers onto the platform. you are seeing the benefits of that in q3 where the marketplace is more balanced, our margins are coming back to normal, our mobility margins are going to the pandemic levels even at lower volume because of the moves we have made in terms of automation. and our uber eats business is on the top line but is getting to
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profit levels as well by the end of the year. really, things are working out quite well where we can grow the top line but do so profitably on a sustainable basis for some period to come. emily: you are continuing to work on driver supply. there are price surges writers are feeling. you said that will ease up by the end of the year. without that, do you see long-term profitability? >> absolutely. we are seeing the prices essentially stabilize now, our surge levels are coming down, etas are the best they've been since the beginning of the year and conversion rates as far as the percentage of users opening the app and getting the service they want, food delivered to their home or if they are going somewhere, all of these metrics are moving in the right direction. we think we can be profitable
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but we can do that delivering a amazing experience and a strong earnings to earners. emily: in the u.k. in particular you are seeing longer waits, drivers are going to other apps in moving to other sources of income. when do you see a better balance between supply and demand? >> i think what we are seeing in the u.k. is that demand is at 20 to 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels. the u.k. is really opening up entered it's amazing to see. the number of drivers we have on our platform is as high as it was pre-pandemic, but it has not caught up to the growth in supply. we are going out there in the u.k. now, and we are looking to bring on 24 -- 20,000 more drivers, earning opportunities are better than they have been. as far as earnings, over 60% of the time you're getting -- service goes, you're sick -- 60%
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of the time you're getting your ride within 40 minutes. hopefully we will get more drivers onto the platform to catch up to the incredible demand. shery: that was the huber ceo speaking to emily chang. bank of america ceo says the lender has enough capital to pay to retain employees at risk of being poached by competitors. bank of america was the first to raise pay for junior workers, raising base pay for first year analysts from 95,000 to $100,000 in august. >> our attrition rate is where it was a 2019 the lowest it has been in two years, we have plenty of capital. it is down to teammates and continuing to employ them and doing the hard work. shery: taking its business public, the ceo looking at
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