♪ >> the great exit, if you will, from these emergency policy settings has begun. >> the ecb is curbing their pepp purchases. the fed is moving toward exit. >> the treasury is about where it should be based on where we are headed. it is already positioned itself behind the curve. >> i would say inflation is running at a pretty furious clip. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. not your average monday.

on radio, on television, jon ferro, as our guests at the top say, is this the great american exit? jonathan: is at the start of a tightening cycle? how loose will that tightening cycle be? approaching 1.50% on tens. what is the tolerance level here? 1.60%, 1.70%, 1.80%? tom: the question is not where we are on resistance and support, but on just laois and in washington. -- on legislation in washington. jonathan: the policy mix building up for speaker pelosi, advancing the story as part of the mix going into 2022. how much of this policy effort fades? can earnings keep doing the hard work? because earnings have done the hard work this year. tom: and chief financial officers and what they do with

the yield move, the coordinated slope yield as well. what do we see about issuance into q4? lisa: right now, a lot of companies do not need to issue more debt. there entering the quiet period it comes to stock ibex. but borrowing costs are still very low. there's a key question, at what point will be's higher yields, with the backdrop of the great exit, lead to actual tighter credit conditions? not yet. not even close. tom: the real yield here come whether it is off of the german election, the u.s. real yield, -1.00%, a lesser negative number , negative zero point 86%. i think that is good -- -0.86%. i think that is good. . jonathan: do you think we can get back to 0%? tom: no. we heard from jim caron, he is only suggesting you get so far

back. jonathan: this is the question. the tolerance level of this equity market for high yields. how self-limiting will a selloff actually be? for the nominal yield, i don't know. is it pushing 2% for the real yield? we got to ask the guests that question. tom: $80 brent crude, we are almost there. lisa: and what is the effect on yields? because there is a sense that higher oil prices lead to higher inflation, but at the same time, it will crimp people's spending ability. this is not necessarily good for growth. i am trying to understand the ramifications for the economy. tom: green on the screen. as you mentioned earlier, the nasdaq off higher yields takes it further south, negative 0.7%. jonathan: off the back of that, we look at the equity market. on the nasdaq 100, down 0.7%.

it is in big tech you are starting to see this play out a little bit or. we are softer thereby a big margin compared to where s&p is right now. tom: morgan stanley was a markdown on amazon. what does that meant to the end of 2022? it still advances 16%-ish, so that is a mark on their overweight on amazon. right now we overweight on what is really going on, and that is in the bond market. we start this our strong. gene tannuzzo joins us, global head of fixed income at columbia threadneedle. do you make portfolio adjustments now that we have seen this shift in the fixed income space? gene: i think this is an important time for the bond market. we didn't get a lot of new information from the fed last week. we thought the taper was coming. the market did, and the taper is certainly coming. i think what we got which was a surprise is that we didn't get this separation in the language

as strongly as we expected from the tapering to the rate liftoff. powell told us a jackson hole there would be a substantially more stringent test for rate liftoff's, but what we saw was really one and the same, so that is putting a floor under how low yields can go. you adjust portfolios -- do you adjust portfolios based on that? the good news so far is that we have seen rates up with credit spreads tighter and with stock prices higher, so it hasn't been a breakdown of diversification. this is not been the 20 taper tantrum. the short answer is don't revisit your portfolio strategy. jonathan: what on the curve has got your attention right now? we have seen a real adjustment on fives, tens, 30's. gene: we feel more comfortable with the five to seven year part of the curve. if you look at what is price for fed expectations, it is pretty

reasonable. it is pretty much in line with what the fed is forecasting. it is the longer into the curve where we are a little more nervous. if there is an anchor or a force of gravity out there, it is relating the 30 year yield to the fed's long-run dots. still 0.5 percent away from where we are today on the long end. so i think the gravitational pull will be for the long end yield to move higher, and we are a little more defensive there. jonathan: do you think we can get back to 2.5%, that long-term. for the federal reserve -- that long-term dot for the federal reserve? gene: i don't think it is a 2021 event, but i think that is the path we are on. if we get there more quickly, it is the old adage that speed kills. speed kills in the bond market. it is not that rates can't move higher, but it is the velocity with which we saw yields rise, so if we could see a more gradual move, that would be much more just about this stage.

lisa: how much does the international picture color your call for the 30 year bond yield, given what we are seeing in europe? gene: it might actually be more important. last week, the new information from the fed was more in body language and posture than anything substantive area but if we listen to the bank of england , and the fact that they are pivoting to a more hawkish policy, we might see removal of liquidity from the european central bank. i think that global backdrop actually plays a significant role in this idea that the wave of liquidity is starting to wane. gene: -- lisa: what if international buyers step back to the degree they did in the last 10 year reopening that we saw, and domestic tires have to pick up all of the slack for the treasury market? what happens then? gene: i think that is the debate for a decade plus now, and that risk is always there. i think the pressure release valve is probably not the yield

as much as it is the value of the dollar relative to other key crosses there. i think that is the one where you don't want to stick your neck out too far from a currency risk perspective. i don't think that is going to be the key driver of yields and treasury prices because what we are seeing is that currency hedged treasury yields are still pretty attractive to other developed market buyers. tom: on the buy side, you are in a whole different viewpoint on this. what is the 10 year yield ahead where you signal what james bullard would call a regime shift? are we here, or is it a higher yield? gene: i don't think we are anywhere near a regime shift yet. it looks like the market is really disconnected from what the is saying. if you look at what the fed is projecting, we are talking about whether or not we are pricing in a couple or three hikes out to 2023, that is pretty modest, pretty reasonable, and the market is not far away from the fed there. if we start to see the market really puts the fed higher, i

think that becomes problematic. that is your james bullard regime shift. i think we are a long way from there. jonathan: always good to catch up. gene tannuzzo there, the global head of fixed income at columbia threadneedle. story just now from the bloomberg team on charles evans. just want to reiterate what charles evans of the chicago federal reserve will say a little later this, in prepared remarks for a speech a little bit later. "i do not think the supply side induced transitory inflation we are seeing today will be enough to do the trick. i suspect we will need a period of sustained monetary policy induced overshooting enough to deliver on a mandated -- on our mandated goals." voting number this year. a lot of fed speak. for the chicago fed president charles evans, they don't seem to be there yet. tom: i have a huge respect for president evans of chicago. i am just going to suggest he

carries some weight. within the fed speak that we have, as we said to gene tannuzzo, at what level do they change their tone. we have not broken out of so many trends. we are just at the point of those trends. jonathan: if you are talking about the bond market, at the start of the year when yields broke out, when we really see yields start to break outcome of the line was it is consistent with a better outlook for this economy. they were comfortable with that. they were comfortable with things all the way through to 1.80%. we are at 1.49% now. tom: jon and i do this all the time. for those of you on radio, he talks, and i am bringing up the two standard deviation chart on 10-year gilts. your point, three days in a row, we are beyond a two standard deviation move to higher yields. jonathan: do you think it is the pace that is going to get their attention more than the level? tom: absolutely it is rate of change. i am observing three days in a

row outside that two standard deviation comfort zone. is that enough math for monday? jonathan: that's enough. lisa: i think the charlie evans comments really highlight the point that blackrock was talking about, this sort of shallow path of rate hikes when they actually do start raising rates because they do expect this to largely be, and i know this is a dirty word, but transitory. there's nothing to give them a sense we are moving beyond what we have seen for the past decade or two. jonathan: they made a dirty word, didn't they? lisa: they did. i feel dirty. transitory. jonathan: your week ahead, chairman powell, secretary yellen coming up. a lot of central-bank decisions this week as well. u.s. data on friday, some ism's. earnings season two weeks away. tom: the central bank of pelosi, she's going to weigh in as well. jonathan: there's going to be about their on thursday. this is bloomberg.

♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. facebook is pausing work on instagram kids, it's project for people under the age of 13. the company says halt will give it time to work with parents, experts, policymakers, and regulators. several members of congress wrote facebook urging it to drop instagram kids entirely. reports suggested that facebook knew that instagram could pose risks to teenagers. in germany, left schultz of the centerleft -- germany, olaf scholz of the centerleft social democrats wants to form a coalition by christmas. meanwhile, armin laschet of chancellor angela merkel's conservative party insists he will also seek a deal with the greens and the free democrats. bigger nancy pelosi is promising to pass president biden's infrastructure bill this week, also signaling that the headline

number on the spending and tax package will be lowered from $3.5 trillion. a split between moderate and progressive democrats set up a showdown over the president's economic agenda. in the u.k., pressure growing on prime minister boris johnson to do something about a supply chain crisis that has led to fuel shortages. pumps ran dry at some gasoline stations because of some panic buying. the government has temporary suspended company and laws to allow companies to coordinate fuel supplies to the most affected regions. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> they don't need a single republican vote. it is not subject to a filibuster. if they want to do this, they

can go ahead and bring the attention of the american people to the increase in debt we are going to need to pay for this spending spree. jonathan: republican senator pat toomey from pennsylvania over the weekend. from new york city, good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro this monday morning. your price action slightly negative, off by 0.25%. it is worse on the nasdaq. the nasdaq 100 negative i 0.75 percent. yields are breaking out again, higher by three or four basis points. off the highs of the session, still close to 1.49%. euro-dollar might get your attention, a break of $1.17, down 0.2%. we are trying to put together some kind of coalition in germany following inconclusive elections over the weekend. in the commodity market once again, we add some weight to the crude price. five weeks of gains, and we had some. we are back through $75. tom: a move to $80 on brent

crude. not there yet, but up to new highs moments ago as well. right now, joining us on the political moment and what it means for economics, finance, and investment, greg valliere joins us. always astute on the moment at hand. i am dumbfounded by democrats taking a victory now like it was 1964, 1965, with lbj. how much of a majority does a president have to ram through his set of legislative? -- of legislative pieces? greg: he doesn't have much. i think that was one of the biggest realizations over the last weekend. nancy pelosi of all people said we are not going to be at 3.5 trillion dollars. that was a big concession, in my opinion. then she throughout another concession, and that is that we are not going to have a government shutdown at the end of this week. they will do an extension. those two things make me a

little more optimistic. not euphoric, but i think the chances of a major crisis are still remote. one final point, i urge everyone to read the "wall street journal" peace on the feds tools. if we were to have a real debt crisis and default crisis, the fed has options. they can sell some of their treasuries. they can by defaulting treasuries. so this is a serious story, but not an apocalyptic story. tom: very importantly, do you since negotiations that are normal, that have a give-and-take and a back-and-forth among well-meaning politicians? greg: no. [laughter] i don't see it yet. i think there's a lot of anger at mitch mcconnell because the republicans spent like drunken sailors for four years with a lot of tax cuts and spending. there's a lot of resentment towards him. right now, i think the negotiations that really matter

are among democrats. you still got to get a handful of very important moderates on board. that is coming, but i think a deal with republicans comes later in the fall. lisa: you mentioned this story, the idea that the fed could be thrust once again into the political spotlight, taking a role in trying to stave off a political default. how much is this a risk for be federal reserve, that when congress stalls out and can't get stuff done, the federal reserve has to be left holding the bag and takes a lot of heat as a result on all sides? greg: it is a good point. they don't want to get an image of being the lender of last resort, and i think they would make it clear that this is an exception. but you read the piece that they have been there before. they have considered these options. there's a lot of controversy withincluding some of the active traders at the fed, and now there will be with this. it is just the way things are

right now. it is a very controversial, dysfunctional period in washington. lisa: especially at a time when jay powell is up for potential renomination by president biden. there is a question how much inflation is starting to concern democrats, more than it had previously. perhaps this is one of the reasons for some of the concessions nancy pelosi made. do you really feel like that is the case? greg: i think more and more voters around the country are linking together higher prices and big spending. i am not sure the correlation is there, but the voters believe that. as long as they do, i think a price tag like $3.5 trillion is just to rich -- just too rich. tom: i was looking at ed case of hawaii. he is clearly a moderate democrat. what does speaker pelosi have to offer moderates, blue dogs like ed case of hawaii? greg: not a lot.

that is one of the problems here. maybe she is going to offer a better chance of getting reelected. an awful lot of democrats i talked to, or their staffs anyway, are saying they are scared about 2022. the issue is not will the republicans win the house. the issue is by how much. with a win by 10, 15, 20 seats? when you start talking about numbers like that, a lot of people at the gentleman from hawaii run for cover. lisa: you said the $3.5 trillion plan is too pricey. nancy pelosi said that. what are you seeing in terms of what the likely will -- the likely bill will look like in terms of size and taxes? greg: some of these programs are five, some are 10. some will expire and then get shoved off to the states. there's a lot of gimmickry, but i say something more around $2 trillion is far more likely, and it is not eminent. jonathan: greg valliere of agf

investments, thank you. it could get about this coming thursday, according to speaker pelosi. then on to next year. your question about the midterms, it is not about whether they lose things. it is about how much. tom: i love how he extends the timeline. it is not that we shouldn't be hysterical about this week. it is a huge week. but i like the idea of process here. where will we be in october or december away from those important fed meetings? jonathan: where will we be at the end of next year? what does it look like? tom: i don't have a clue. no clue. jonathan: goldmine, what are they going with, 1.5% to 2%? tom: feroli reconfirmed his potential gdp call of about 2%-ish. and frankly, tilt that a little bit down. i can't say that on tv. i get in trouble. jonathan: how quickly we get

back to that growth of 2%, whether we can sustain this above trend story. lisa: using about the national picture with all of the savings, and whether people can actually spend money on goods that are potentially hanging off the coast in ships. then you think about the bleed through to the united states, the stimulus, and it is enough to make your head spin. tom: like the red sox. [laughter] it is the pendulum of 2%-ish. jonathan: 2% is in the middle? tom: that is the debate, jon. you nailed it. you could be the new chancellor of the exchequer. jonathan: does anyone want that, tom? [laughter] tom has been trying to send me back to london for the last six years. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. on the s&p, down 15, negative zero .3%. nasdaq futures a whole lot softer. we are -0.9% now on the nasdaq 100, with yields breaking out through 1.50%. there is your move, 1.5027%.

yields higher by five basis points, from 1.1258% at the start of august ask for 1.50 percent. more on that bond market breakout in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: so much to get through. from new york city this morning, good morning. let's start with the price action, through 1.50% on tens. up by five basis points from one point 258% in early august, back to -- from 1.258% in early august, back to 1.50%. we will go through the economic data in america, then get to the bond market. in some important news from the boston said. durable goods, and upside surprise. michael: we are still waiting for the capital goods numbers which is what goes into gdp and what people really care about, but it is a 1.8% increase for the month of august, and that is after a 1/10 decline in july. the expectation was for a 7/10

increase. jonathan: now approaching 1.51% at 1.5096%. the data better than expected on capital goods this morning. that is a story in the bond market. mike, i think we have to pause for what is happening at the boston fed. boston fed president mr. rosengren has been there for as long as i can remember. i think more than a decade. he is stepping down a full nine months early. we have to be very careful about jumping to conclusions and just go straight to the statement from the man himself. what is the boston fed president saying? michael: he is resigning as of thursday. he was set to leave the fed in june of next year because his mandatory retirement age was coming, but rosengren says he has a kidney problem that has been long-standing, and he has been placed on the kidney transplant list, and the covid situation only exacerbated his health condition. so by resigning, he will be able

to take care of his health that are while he waits for a kidney. the problem for rosengren is that, of course, he has caught up in this issue of trading assets during the financial crisis, during the covid crisis, when the fed was buying and selling some of those assets. so when you connect the two, it doesn't look good. it looks like he is being forced out or resigning because of the asset issue. but he is resigning, he says, for health reasons. tom: nicely said. this is a guy back to 2007, an incredibly long 10 year, with wisconsin phd in economics. it has been an important voice. let's link him away from his illness and serious issues with a kidney transplant with mr. kaplan of dallas. what is your reporting, particularly with the national so season for business economic dynamic meetings -- business and

economic meetings, going on right now? michael: probably some pressures internally, but the problem they have is that this was all cleared by ethics officers. they all passed in advance, so it wasn't what they thought they were doing some thing wrong. the appearance is bad. obviously, people will make their own conclusions about whether or not there were any profits made here. there is an internal investigation at the fed. the question is, does that internal investigation turn up anything? you never know with internal investigations. tom: the president of brown university, every regional board has that local constituency. who holds the decision-making on this ethics debate? is it powell, the governors in washington, or the president of brown university christina paxson? michael: it is sort of shared in

this case. the board of directors is in charge of hiring a bank president, and they have to submit that name to the fed for approval to the fed board of governors. the fed board of governors can set rules for the banks, but the banks are a quasi-government. they are chartered as independent companies. it isn't clear that the fed could fire a bank president, but they could put pressure on them to resign. lisa: let's talk about his positions. he's been known as a hawk, eric rosengren, at least in the past. i don't know what a hawk really means, as jon has talked about really times. however, he was slated to be a voting member next year. his removal early, what does that do to the composition of the voting members and what the likely path of policy rates could be? tom: because he is resigning now, there's a very good chance that they will have a new boston fed president in place by the time they would vote for the first time in 2022, so that

won't change because it is not the president, it is the fed location, that rotates on and off the board. it will depend on who they choose. i am sure the next thing we are going to get is that they have hired a search firm and that they are going to look for the five people, etc., and we will find out in a couple of months. it is interesting because this all comes in the time of a diversity movement, and it will be interesting to see which direction the boston fed goes in . lisa: i'm looking right now at the market reaction. i don't know if this is something else, or giving a narrative to something that doesn't perhaps have this narrative. but there is a steepening in the yield curve pretty significantly. i wonder how much this indicates that whoever replaces these fed members who are leaving come of the seats that are empty, will be even more dovish than those who are already there, that they will let the economy run as hot as possible. michael: even if you leave aside

the changes at the federal reserve, it is going to be an issue going forward. there is a big issue which we are going to talk about at the top of jon's show, about energy prices around the world and how they are soaring, particularly in china, which means supply chain interruptions, which means inflation continues. you were talking about oil prices going up. same story. if we have these supply chain interruptions going on around the world, you are going to have inflation lasting longer, and you are going to have a dilemma for central banks because there isn't a whole lot can do. their job is to stimulate demand. if they think inflation is high and they want to cut back on demand, can they really do that when the global economy is trying to come out of the covid crisis? we are setting up for a rough winter, whether or not we have a spike in covid. jonathan: thank you, and thank you for the promo and the tease. you can watch that conversation live and in full at 9:00 on bloomberg tv.

let's reset. if you are just tuning in, some better data out of america. durable goods and capital goods, upside surprise. on fives, we approach 1% at 99 basis points, up four basis points. on tends, up six basis points to 1.51%. that's the bond market off the back of better-than-expected market data. from the boston fed president eric rosengren, the president since 2007, announcing an early retirement, nine months earlier than expected, and a really personal letter that he writes to the chairman of the federal reserve. it reads, "i have decided to resign as president of the fed bank of boston to address some serious health issues that worsened in the last 18 months and must be addressed. while working on the federal relief programs, given the long hours and stress, regrettably my kidney function climbed to the point that i qualified for the kidney transplant list in june

of 2020. it has become clear that i should aim to reduce my stress so that i can focus on my health issues." a very personal letter from the boston fed president to the chairman of the federal reserve. tom: that is president rosengren's style since 2007. what i would suggest is that everyone has to pay respect for the medical moment, but there is a real sequence here of how will washington and the different regional feds react. clearly it is just the now, that really we haven't heard from the many boards of directors of our federal reserve banks. jonathan: who do we need to hear from next? we don't want to complete the issue the president is having with his health with what has happened more recently over the last couple of weeks. it is up for the president of the boston fed. i do not want to get into the business of working out what people are thinking. i can only read the letter as it reads for these general reserve.

-- for the chair of the federal reserve. what is going to be interesting is what robert kaplan has to say in the coming weeks as well. that would be a very interesting one to read, after the controversy that both of those individuals have been under. tom: with the depth of our economic reporting, the different cultures of the regional feds. to say that dallas thinks the same as boston, it is as far apart as the two football teams. they have a character and a historical fabric that is each unique. jonathan: it is an early retirement for the boston fed president eric rosengren. a cloud of controversy off the back of what has happened with investment. from the boston fed and over at the dallas fed as well. also need to talk about what is

happening in the bond market. goes through 1.50%. we need to head down to d.c. to get you up to speed on what is happening with this federal reserve and the boston fed. tom: our esteemed reporter craig torres joins us on short notice. your thoughts on what we would see from dallas after this medical condition in boston? craig: i don't know. that is kind of up to kaplan and his board. what i would say is we are in for some big changes in the composition of the federal reserve. potentially four openings at the board, now i president. that is -- now a president. that is potentially five new dots. that is very influential. all of these people will be participating in these discretionary areas like what exactly do you mean by average inflation. is it three years, five years, 10 years?

what exactly do you mean by maximum employment? lisa: given all of the openings we have at the federal reserve and given the compositional mix that we currently have on the fed, what is the likely political pressure to get a fed official who is incredibly dovish or somebody perhaps who is a little more concerned about inflation and how much the fed can tamp it down? craig: for eric's job? you are getting into some thing that is very subtle. remember, regional feds, their boards of directors put up a name, and the federal reserve board approves that name, so there is a political tension there. but i don't think there will be political pressure to get somebody who is dovish. i think there will be political pressure, quite frankly, to get somebody who is diverse. i don't think the federal reserve system is diverse enough. i think that is the number one issue in selecting a new

president. jonathan: how long does this usually take, to select someone new? craig: it could take months, actually. there are all these formalities like search committees, and they tend to hire a second firm to do diversity search. so it just takes a long time. tom: craig torres has been a stranger. we need to get craig torres up earlier in the morning. jonathan: you can hear the reluctance in his voice that he came on this morning because he knew he might get invited back. it has been too long. thank you, sir. craig torres of bloomberg news down in d.c. if i ever ask a good question to a fed official, that question might have come from craig torres. tom: that would be true. jonathan: typically, that is the case. tom: this is the depth of the coverage that matthew winkler built years ago, and mckee was a big part of that as well, with rich miller and the others. but to me, the fabric here is

how, i can't say this enough, in the battle out of 1912 to the independence of the fed in 1951ish, each bank is different. i can't emphasize that enough. jonathan: boston fed president eric rosengren announcing early retirement. lisa: and now so much focus on his were placement, given that he or she next year will be a voting member on the federal reserve. jonathan: so much focus on the dallas fed as well, and what we may or may not hear from robert kaplan in the coming weeks. equity futures are softer on the s&p, much more soft on the nasdaq. we are down 0.9%. these bond yields out five basis points, just back below 1.50%. just a little south of that level right now. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> you look at states around this country, and you see places that are using crisis standards of care.

that means that we are talking about who is going to get a ventilator, who is going to get an icu bed. those are not easy discussions to have, and that is not a place we went our health care system to ever be. tom: rochelle walensky, cdc, with a event for weekend some of the booster and the disinformation of this pandemic. tom keene with lisa abramowicz. i scheduled my booster for the middle of october. for a lot of people, it is still about the unvaccinated. lisa: there are still kids ages seven and under who are knowledgeable -- you are not eligible. tom: tamika that istom: -- tom: to me, that is front and center. the youth of america, difficult to deal with. we are hoping to get vaccinated here at some point. we have a rare treat right now. lloyd minor is one of the most different physicians i know out

there. he is someone with world-class, first-order research on the balance of the year. he has taken that over to medicine at johns hopkins, a residency at duke of here years ago, and holds court in palo alto right now. what is your biggest headache right now? >> i think the biggest concern is that we continue to takes care about 18,000 students on our campus, and that we comply with the federal mandate the biden administration has issued with regard to the vaccine mandate. tom: what is your strategy with your unvaccinated staff? lloyd: we have a highly vaccinated group, between 95% and 97%, within our hospitals. and around the university, it is similar. we are still gathering that information. we want to make sure we are providing those who wish to apply for religious or medical

exemption that we provide the avenue to issue that application and have it reviewed, but we know that these vaccinations are among the safest and most effective vaccinations ever developed. we want to make sure we answer any questions people have, and ultimately get a fully vaccinated workforce. lisa: meanwhile, over in new york state, there is a mandate that health care workers get vaccinated, and governor kathy hochul has said she may bring in the national guard to fill empty health care roles once this mandate goes into effect, which is this week. what do you make of all of this? lloyd: it is really important that our health care organizations, hospitals, clinics be able to provide outstanding care. the real tragedy early on in the pandemic was in places like new york, where the health care workforce became overwhelmed. we had too many patients overwhelming our facilities and/or workforce. so i think having skilled, trained health care personnel,

if that is the national guard, then perhaps that is appropriate. but making sure we continue to provide care to patients when they need it by skilled personnel is going to be really important. lisa: if there are people who doubt the efficacy or potential risks of the vaccine, what does it send them in terms of messaging that a lot of health care workers are not getting vaccinated themselves? lloyd: i think it is a difficult message, and one that concerns me a lot. we had a highly vaccinated health care workforce where we are, and i think that is true across most areas of the country. the pandemic has been overwhelming for all of us, but i think the steps that the fda, the cdc have taken to ensure the safety and efficacy of these vaccines, are remarkable. we need to do the best job we can in health care to communicate that message so that more people feel reassured and get vaccinated. tom: our listeners, our viewers

have to be confused by the cacophony of politics. fda, federal this, world health organization, but certainly cdc. what is your desire for cdc and washington officials to get on the same page? lloyd: i think it is really important that federal agencies aligned, and the fda and cdc in particular, and i think dr. when ski -- dr. walensky ultimately issued a ruling aligning the cdc wreck and editions with the fda recommendations, but as you described, there was a lot of back-and-forth with the advisory committee. they represent a diversity of opinions and expertise come about at the end of the day, it is up to the leaders to make sure the alignment is there. tom: is this a one-off? is this something new for you with all of your decades of experience? or is this how the sausage is

made within the vaccine community? lloyd: certainly, covid is a one-off for all of us. ultimately, these disagreements do exist in a healthy way between regulatory agencies, but we are in the midst of a huge crisis, so alignment and coordination is particularly important getting us through this crisis. lisa: there was a study that came out of oxford university this morning that said that american men lost more than two years of lifespan as a result of the covid pandemic. when we look on this pandemic, but will be the health care legacy of the covid pandemic? lloyd: i hope the legacy will be how we responded as a nation and how we responded as a health care community. certainly there are many aspects of that response that we wish were different, but i think we have all learned a lot and are learning a lot. i am so proud every day to work an amazing group of dedicated health care professionals where i am at stanford, and i would say that about health care workers around the country.

supporting our health care workforce during these trying times is going to be particularly important as we all get through this together. tom: thank you so much for joining bloomberg today in new york. greatly appreciate it. lloyd minor has been with us throughout the ark of this pandemic, and we look for further conversations. lisa, your thoughts on the immediacy of announcements from the fed. lisa: i am just reading more about the eric rosengren resignation, basically speeding up his retirement by nine months to thursday on a kidney condition. of course, there is this question of the potential revelations about trading activity, and now there is focus on robert kaplan. however, very sensitive time. the backdrop to this to me is how central the federal reserve is to markets, how central each of the fed officials are to the vote, to the dots, to understanding how central bankers are ticking about the economy and lesion ahead and --

and inflation ahead. tom: i have always prided myself on not calculating the voting, but this time around it is maybe the most important, and what i will call cliched recent memory, and to the next phase of voting. lisa: in the inflationary backdrop of the future that will necessarily look different than the ones we see right now, with disruptions in gas prices rising significant leap. it is a mystery. i keep going back to danny blanchflower's term. tom: a ramp-up in crude here, just under $80 a barrel, right now $79.47. we had 1.51% on the 10 year, 1.48% now. your morning, as you begin your week, some of the churns we see. ferro didn't quote the dow for the entire show.

what i fail that was. the vix out near 19. it is the beginning of an eventful week. stay with us on radio, on television. good morning. ♪

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jonathan: let's get the week started. good morning, good morning. equity features down about 10 on the s&p. a bit of pain on the nasdaq.

bond yields breaking out. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. is the great central-bank retreat just beginning? >> we are in a unique period. >> central banks shifting to a more hawkish tone. >> central -- talking about moving towards being less accommodative. >> the ecb is curbing their pepp purchases. >> the bank of england hikes early next year. >>