>> a lot of things are changing right now that are leading to higher yields. >> it hasn't been a breakdown in diversification. >> the fed has said it is going to let inflation run, but inflation is running at a pretty serious clip. >> if we were to have a real debt crisis and default crisis, the fed has options. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. you equity market lower, down by 0.9%. yields breaking out in the last week. tom: it's deteriorating in the last hour as well. the dynamic of the last 60

minutes is tangible, with the vix 19, 20, i moments go out to 21.06. we tried to find a bid, and you see it in the yield space. i'm going to go to the 30 year, 2.05%. jonathan: this repricing we have seen has been remarkable, from the low 60's of early august, through one point for 3% -- through 1.53%. if this simply a story of price reshaping narrative, or something bigger than that? tom: i am going to say price through to inflation. you've got some serious inflation issues, and i know the bulls will say it is transitory. francis mcdonald of manulife was brilliant on the bullish tone. jonathan: yields higher, crude positive.

brent, $80 per get wti, $76. lisa: how much is it a central banking sector that seems to be moving away from these policies? you can see u.k. bond yields also climbing. this is a global affair. i wonder how much this is loyal and how much this is something very different that has to do with policy. tom: it is a really important point lisa makes. explain how the bank of england can act proactively here, given the power crisis in the united kingdom. jonathan: i think it is going to be very difficult. when we start to see supply issues, we see that an individual company level, at a country level. and it is china, too. china has a power problem, and we saw that around the likes of apple and tesla. that could be an issue for months to come. tom:tom: the media fixation is to go like annmarie hordern does

and hang out in cafes and talk about supply. this is all about demand dynamic, and what we forget, this is fundamental, is the cross of supply and demand for hydrocarbons is wicked tiny. there is very little wiggle worm. jonathan: that's helpful, and the hand action as well. let's whip through the price action. as beef hundred futures down 35. the underperformance in the nasdaq, down on nasdaq 100 futures. the relative outperformance, and there's the crude move, up about $0.70. we move higher by 0.9%, $76.13. lisa: is this inflationary or disinflationary?

how much will central bankers have to talk about the transitory nature of higher oil prices with supply chain disruption? at 8:00 a.m. we hear from ecb president christine lagarde, giving a speech on central banking. how much does she reiterate a more devastating's -- more dovish stance than the federal reserve and the bank of england, as they have not necessarily signal to same type of tapering as their neighbor banks? jay powell and janet yellen will be testifying. yesterday, talking about the passing supply chain disruptions. we heard that that does seem to be waning. yet that is very real for consumers. how do they respond to that? at 1:00 p.m. we get u.s. selling the $2 billion of seven-year notes.

this tends to be a messy auction , and it follows that the five-year note yield is getting up to the highest level going back to february 2020. i am watching this closely. how much do messy buyers step up ? jonathan: yields much higher over the last week. let's get straight to evan brown, ubs asset management multi-asset strategy had. here it is over the last week. why is this not a head fake? evan: i think what is happening now is the market is starting to look forward to the healing in developed economies. covid, delta, it is finally starting to turn. we've seen data come in disappointing a for a while, but now there's economic surprises are bottoming because they know household balance sheets are in really good shape. we are ready for the next leg of

re-acceleration as we get through delta. so definitely think this has some legs. tom: how have you adjusted your allocation, finally with the markets moving, do you adjust asset strategy? evan: when we get some confirmation of what is happening, yes, and the price action we might add more to those positions. the hardest part of our job was singing about what is priced in. we might have a thesis, but that might be in line with what is priced. particularly on china, it tells you a lot of that bad news was in the price with a 1.35% 10 year yield. the market was telling us that

maybe we have something right here, that if the market can absorb this bad news, adding to financials, adding to japan, that is something we will do given that price confirmation. lisa: that type of construction just suffered its worst loss since october. it seems to be more and more correlated with bond yields going higher and tender with lower stocks. evan: what is interesting about the 60-40 portfolio is it is vulnerable to higher yields, considering that 60% is heavily weighted towards tech. the big indices, whether it is in the u.s. or whether you are including china, higher yields, that is going to weaken those growth equities. there's a very strong negative

correlation still between those procyclical assets and bonds. if we are getting hit on our energy and financials, that is still being offset by positive moves in bond prices. the dollar view is positive, which might seem strange given that we are rightly reflationary . it is very difficult to know exactly how this china property sector slow down is going to play out and how much willingness china's authorities to be to let growth slow down in china. we are seeing really yields the e -- real yields rise, particularly in the u.s. all of that spells may be in long the dollar. that is a nice hedge against

commodity prices, asian currencies, is a good hedge towards our broader procyclical positioning which is pro-duration and more cyclical with an equity markets. tom: if you come up with an earnings guesstimate for this quarter, for frankly all of next year, what do revenues do? do you just assume buoyant revenues? evan: i think revenues should be just fine. we had a little bit i soft patch with delta, but it has been remarkable how much companies have been able to earn despite these headwinds. what we are focused on is margins and cost pressures because a lot of these supply constraints, there's increasing awareness that these bottlenecks won't be resolved overnight. we think they will be, but they may last well into 2022, so what are companies saying? are they just saying these are going to resolve quickly, or are

they going to extend for a while? it is less of a revenues concern. it is more of a margin concern. that is what we will be focused on the next few weeks. jonathan: that is the big test this earnings season, without a doubt. send our best to the team. thanks, evan. down 38 on the s&p, -0.9%. tom, you said it. we need to wait for earnings. tom: it's all there is to it. it is going to be the makeup of earnings. i am most focused on revenue, and this new theme of the revenue growth trap. people are going to go out and buy not the line, but the rate of change. if revenue growth sags for the revenue growers, that will shift dramatically market expectations. jonathan: and how that revenue falls to the bottom line, what margins look like. will these issues persist? tom: i agree. revenue, revenue matters right

now, given the mix we are in. i am sort of optimistic on revenue, but i could be wrong. jonathan: there's a huge focus right now on costs. lisa: even jay powell, and the comments he released, later today he's going to say that these effects have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated. they will abate, but this is the key risks. what if they don't for an even longer period of time? jonathan: transitory for longer is the new low for longer. tom: tottenham is transitory. jonathan: that's true, tom. down durable 9% on the s&p. good morning -- down 0.9% on the s&p. good morning. francisco blanch coming up. do not miss that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

pressure is mounting on congressional democrats to raise the debt limit and avoid crippling default. senate republicans have blocked a bill that would suspend the debt ceiling until september 2022. it would also keep the government operating past the end of the fiscal year two days from now. the leading crude benchmark rose for the sixth day in a row to the highest since october 2018. there are signs that demand is running ahead of supply, and there has been a flurry -- from u.k. bankers. the latest emergency measure and a crisis that has engulfed prime minister boris's government. when it comes to likely republican presidential candidates, wall street's money is on florida governor ron desantis, not former president trump. this after the $55 million ron

desantis raised came from the finance industry. boeing forecasts commercial aviation should be back to 2019 levels in two to three years. the plane maker is expecting a strong domestic recovery in china and parts of europe. boeing's pritikin that china will need 8700 new aircraft, doubling -- boeing is predicting that china will need 8700 new aircraft, doubling the size of its fleets. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ es. i ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think it is clear we made substantial further progress on achieving our inflation goal.

this also been good progress towards maximum employment. we continued to improve moderation in the pace of asset purchases. jonathan: boilerplate stuff from john williams, the new york fed president. good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. equity futures down 37. yields are higher by five basis points to 1.54%. crude is positive, stronger to $76.26. euro-dollar -0.1%. a cyclical twist to this market in the last several days. tom: i like that phrase. i think that is very accurate. nasdaq 1.54% of the negative as well. you wonder where it will settle. jon, 1.5 4% is unimaginable months ago.

the bulls are sort of like, whatever. jonathan: i think price sets narrative. last monday, what were we talking about? we are staring down the barrel of $76 crude. tom: for all you that are not part of global wall street, this has been hugely anticipated, what will happen with global research at jp morgan. jonathan: not a surprise to most people, tom. tom: there it is, the ever-changing tone. making substantial further progress in washington is annmarie hordern. she joins us right now. it is tuesday. i guess thursday matters. maybe friday matters more. what is speaker pelosi's most important meeting this tuesday? annmarie: it's going to be

meeting with the progressive caucus. the chair jaya paul -- the chair , to make sure that she can sign up and vote yes for the infrastructure package on thursday. she made a massive u-turn last night when she met with her party, saying that basically, what has been known as the two track process, soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure, that is now being tossed, and they are just going to have to pass bipartisan infrastructure as they still negotiate this $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. tom: i get the idea that moderates don't want to go with the liberals because they will be voted out of office. what is there worry of giving up too much to the moderates? annmarie: they are worried they

are going to lose this leverage, that they will not get the social spending plan that not only do they believe in, but they campaigned on, if they vote yes for bipartisan infrastructure. nancy pelosi desperately needs those votes. republicans are going to wait to see if policy can with up to hundred it cap -- can whip up 218 votes even though a few of them want to vote for that hard infrastructure package. this is going to be the tense debate of this week. 12:01 friday morning, we are facing a government shutdown, and of course the looming debt ceiling. lisa: i've been looking forward is begin with you all day because you have such vast experience in the oil sector. right now we are talking about spending money on neutralizing

some of the carbon footprint and reducing emissions at a time when oil prices are the highest in three years. how much are these coloring the conversation in washington? annmarie: to be honest, i don't see the conversation colored at all with the higher oil prices, except for when you hear republicans talk about worries about inflation, and what inflation could come out in gasoline prices, and that is so tightly linked to the price of wti or brent. but it would be interesting to see what the response is from this administration in terms of what is going on in europe. i did speak to a senior advisor and energy security, and he was warning europe that they need to start making sure that they have enough gas to last through the winter, and if it is a cold winter, it could be even risking lives. is america starting to worry now about the energy crisis we are seeing take place

transatlantically? security advisor jake sullivan is on a trip to the gulf, meeting with the crown prince. this would be a time for them to discuss energy prices if they want price to come down. jonathan: down in d.c., or washington correspondent. a little bit of news on evergrande coming from reuters. china asking state backed firms to buy evergrande assets. the chinese communist party asking state backed firms to buy evergrande assets. that news coming from reuters. tom: you've shown the chart many times, your outstanding standing data check. how about those evergrande bonds? you need to pick up a few of those today. jonathan: we don't know what happened with the interest payment from last week.

we've got another one coming on wednesday. tom: the price and yield equivalent is 62%. jonathan: there's a lot to work out. lisa: is this a backdoor bailout? it is basically saying to state owned firms, you better buy this stuff, a way for china to bailout evergrande without risking the moral hazard. i do wonder if that is what people are looking for right now in some of the crisis management techniques that the chinese regulators are engaged with. jonathan: it is not exact we backdoor, is it? it is pretty obvious. front door. lisa: sure, although you could say they are more selective, they give them a haircut. sure. jonathan: from the government. lisa: fine, fair. you got it right. but there's a question about the message while continuing saying they are going to allow companies to fail. jonathan: goldman can map with a forecast for gdp growth in china for this quarter.

they are looking for a slowdown broadly. tom: it is not good for china, and what is important is you've got china growth under 3%, bad things happen. jonathan: catching up with mohammed on friday on "the open." tom: he says he won't come on until the jets went. jonathan: when you were off, he came on once. don't know what that is about. down 43 on the s&p, negative about 1%. tom: tots-aston villa, we could sit next to governor king. jonathan: are you excited about that game? not looking forward to psg-man city later this afternoon? tom: i am going to mcdonald's for lunch. jonathan: are you, tom?

3:00 p.m. eastern time for that game, for those of you interested. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: what a change in a week. last week we were talking about a china growth scare. a week later, the return of the cyclical trade. -0.9 percent on the s&p, but relative outperformance in the small caps. the russell -0.4%. the nasdaq down by 1.66%. what has changed? crude has changed in a big way. switch up the board and get to the energy story. brent pushing through $80 a little earlier on. wti up 0.9%. equities absolutely flying. in a moment, we will catch up with francisco blanch of bank of america. that call is amazing, triple digit crude by next year.

tom: this is so important. we are going to do individual stocks here, and then we got to talk to francisco about the dynamics of oil. jonathan: what has changed? 20 basis points, that is the change. get to the bond market. it is a 20 basis point move from where we were just last tuesday. this tuesday morning, we are up 1.54% on tens. the front end through to the belly, twos, 31 basis points. does that price shaping the narrative. that's your cross asset price action. let's get you some movers and say good morning to r omaine. romaine: that's a big part of the narrative of what we are seeing in the premarket today. a little bit of a shunning of some of those long duration tech

companies. apple, amazon, facebook, and microsoft. microsoft was down in the premarket, had actually been more of the resilient members of the big cap tech space. also keep in i on applied materials. they are getting dragged down as well. there's some negative commentary out by a few sell side analysts saying some of the chip equipment makers may actually be at their cycle peaks. one of the bright spots yesterday is one of the bright spots in the premarket, and that is ford. opening up four new factories in the u.s., including an assembly plant, its first in the united states built by ford since 1969. three battery plants, a huge bid on an ev future. that has to do with scaling up

battery production and getting those costs down. the flipside of that is the old way of powering things, and that is oil. oil stocks up once again in the premarket. brent crude at $80, wti at $76. tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much. watching "the close" for the full cross asset update as well. right now, francisco blanch, bank of america. at $100 a barrel, i want to channel the research of the fed and their landmark peace five years ago on the elasticities of oil. how tight is the oil market so that when demand shifts, the price explodes?

francisco: there's different ways to look at this, but generally for every million barrel a day swing in supply and demand unexpected, we look at typically a $20 move in prices. there's many ways you can run this calculation. buddy 1% move in demand -- but a 1% move in demand leads to a $20 correction. we have probably seen more extreme moves in natural gas because of the reduction of that price facility, the link between gas and coal, is now leading to even sharper moves on that front. so clearly, hydrocarbons are in a tight spot from a supply and demand elasticity point two tighten prices. tom: it is the ugly mass of elasticity, and we are seeing it

through $100. jonathan: let's not bury the lead. let's get straight to that forecast of bank of america. it is $100 crude, triple digit crude by the middle of next year. help us understand the past a $100 and why we might get there sooner -- the path to $100 and why we might get there sooner. francisco: you pass is being driven by supply and demand conditions. we are seeing demand coming back. it is coming back from a liquidity standpoint, but also as natural gas prices rising so fast and creeping back into oil. that is at the heart of the matter. we are going to be over the 2019 demand levels sometime next summer, or maybe this winter if the weather turns particularly cold. we are concerned about that because we have a lot less capacity. she oil production is way lower than it was -- shale oil

production is way lower than it was at the peak of production. frankly, we have seen severe underinvestment in the last 18 months. i am not sure that it can be easily corrected because now we are pulling into a green economy, and if your time horizon is 3, 4, 5 years to recover your money, you just need a higher price. i think oil companies are reluctant to make investment because of what they are hearing from governments and investors. jonathan: typically, we would say the cure for higher prices is higher prices. a peer of yours speaking this morning to francine lacqua, saying it is the under investment that is starting to bite. i think what you're getting here is really important. how long might have to live with this. could this be years of this? francisco: it could potentially. the thing is, we are moving into a straitjacket for energy.

we don't want to use coal. we want to use less and less gas. we want to move away from oil. so this policy ultimately is going to create deeper investments, and the issue is we can't sort out all of these things at once. if the weather turns against us, and it has so far this year, low wind in china, low wind in europe, and we get cold on top of it, things are going to become located because we are depending more and more on renewable sources, and we don't have the large-scale batteries required to store that energy throughout the year. so i think that is where the challenge is, and my view. so it could be a multiyear period, and do we find a tradition to the green economy? lisa: this backdrop is bullish for oil prices, and we have already blown through some of

your forecasts for september when it comes to brent. how much are you bringing forward the idea of triple digit oil prices? francisco: we have been saying it would december 2022 when air traffic recovered. at the end of the day, the biggest gap in global demand has come from the airline industry. we have shut down most of airline travel, but now the u.s. is restarting travel in november. you are going to be to -- to be able to travel into the u.s. demand for jet fuel is going to pick up. at the same time, we are going into winter and we don't have enough gas to keep the world warm, and that is going to lead to a surge in demand. so it could potentially happen sooner. i think the winter premium plays a big role here. lisa: if we are talking about $100 barrels by next year at the latest, could we get to $110,

$150? francisco: i don't want to necessarily create headlines without writing them before, because otherwise i get in trouble. i have to tell you, this seems to be increasingly a multiyear problem because companies are reluctant to invest until higher prices come about, and even if prices come about, we still don't know what cup 26 is going to look like. my sense is once we get through cap 26, we will have a -- through cop26, we will have a clearer picture. the summit will provide guidance to investors and governments alike about what they need to do here. tom: do you anticipate $100 like we saw $110 average for four years? francisco: i don't at the moment. i think it is a squeeze. we have been factoring in more electric vehicles, and resisted away from hydrocarbon, but again, we have underinvestment

that we can't solve easily, and at the same time we have surging demand because we keep printing all this money. my concern is prices for oil and oil commodities spike, and what are we going to do? are we going to keep needing more money and increasing our debts, our government debt to cure the problem? that is definitely not going to help our transitory inflation story. i think it could make it more entrenched. i think at the moment it looks transitory, but i think it becomes more permanent if we use the same tools we have come a fiscal and monetary, to address essentially and undersupplied problem right now. jonathan: we could go all morning. it is great to catch up. francisco blanch, bank of america. two of the best this morning, jeff currie and francisco blanch, commenting on this this morning. tom: you interpolate oil $80 to

$100 a barrel. that is regular gas, $3.18 to three dollars 94 since a gallon. -- $3.94 a gallon. jonathan: it is about how price and that response persists over time. i think that second part is important. we talk about higher prices correcting higher prices. francisco is pushing back against the little bat. tom: all of these people, ed morse, jeff currie, francisco blanch, the others we talk to, that is what they are seeing. jonathan: if you just missed it, we will get that on bloomberg.com and the bloomberg terminal for you. equity futures down 35 on the s&p, -0.8%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, ritika gupta. senate republicans have blocked a bill that was to spend the

debt ceiling until september 2022. it would also have kept the government operating until the end of the fiscal year. they now may have to use a budget procedure that could take nearly two weeks. china is signaling to markets that whatever happens to evergrande, instead crisis spiral out of control or derail the economy. today the central bank added $25 billion of liquidity into the banking system to ensure a healthy arc it and protect homebuyers. european nations dominate the top of the most covid resilient rankings are your there's a new number one in the ratings. ireland is at the top of the survey, while previous number one norway fell to 10th. meanwhile, the delta variant has left the u.s. reeling.

it fell to number 28. ford is making the biggest investment in its history. the carmaker will build factories in tennessee and kentucky. the project will create electric f1 50 pickup trucks and the batteries to power them. they will employ almost 11,000 people. and analyst says software developers are the new bankers. wells fargo analysts estimate that automation will allow banks to cut 100,000 jobs in the next five years. banks have done more on automation than any other industry. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will be very fast and getting a result for this government, and it should be before christmas if possible.

on the other hand, you should know that germany always has coalition governments. jonathan: that was olaf scholz of the spd. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- of the spd. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities are softer by 30 points. the nasdaq 100 down by 9.3%. yields with a left, up four basis points to 1.53%. it is the cyclical trade we are debating all over again. tom: it is a redux of that. the one difference this time is oil. the one difference is commodities. jonathan: big break out in crude. great to catch up with jeff currie this morning and then francisco blanch. just the underinvestment we have seen in the old economy. tom: you got to the headlines nicely. i can't get my glasses on today.

as i opened it, this is a huge misunderstanding of how tight the market is, and when it goes, these elasticities mickey price move faster than you could ever think. jonathan: brent crude at $80 a barrel. francisco blanch and the team at bank of america looking for triple digit crude next year, and according to him, we are one cold winter away from getting it sooner. tom: the tape a little bit more constructive in the last 30 minutes. let's get now to washington. annmarie hordern with an important conversation after the german elections. annmarie: that's right. i am joined by the european commissioner for trade and executive vice president which latticed abrupt skis -- executive vice president, valdis dombrovskis. yesterday you met with chairman powell, you met with secretary yellen. today you are meeting with gina raimondo and trade

representative katherine tai. this administration and this meeting you're going to have on monday regarding technology and trade, it was really build on both sides of the atlantic is a new beginning after some thorny trade policies with the former i been us to ration. but do you feel like you are getting -- former administration. but do you feel like you're getting what you need out of this biden adminstration? is it "back?" valdis: good morning. indeed, we are having very intensive engagement with the biden administration and working in many different areas. indeed, america is back, and we saw it in many important initiatives, like the biden administration rejoining the errors agreement, helping to reach international deal on business taxation, on the oecd framework on the airbus-boeing dispute, just to give a couple

of examples. of course, there is more from the trump era which we need to resolve in the trade area, and tomorrow we are concentrating on a forward moving agenda and how we can cooperate in those areas. annmarie: the french want to postpone tomorrow's meeting because of this submarine spat. for the most part, the eu was also vexed with the united states over this. why was the eu also so upset? valdis: indeed, there was disappointment in the eu concerning how this was handled because you was neither consulted -- because eu was neither consulted, nor even informed about the developments, so there were some repercussions in the eu, and we were in

intense consultations with the biden administration to straighten this situation. but i will say it is especially a difficult situation, it is important to keep communication channels open, and it is important that we are talking is friends and allies also in situations where we disagree. annmarie: there's still the trump era tariffs on steel and aluminum. are you planning to get a deal done before this deadline in december? would a quota system be a comfortable for the european union? sam: indeed -- valdis: indeed, we are now working to resolve this dispute. indeed, it has to be resolved by the first of december, and actually allowing for internal decision-making procedures, we need agreement already by the end of november. selective today i will be meeting with secretary ray mono

-- secretary raimon -- secretary raimdo and the ambassador. what what is important for agreement on our side is first, this pays respect to historical trade flows between the you and u.s. and second to the solution is is compatible with wto rules. annmarie: if you do not get an agreement, you will have your rebuttal tariffs automatically in place in december? or will you try to punch those down the timeline -- try to punt those down the timeline? valdis: we already postponed those for half a year after our first consultations, and now we are working with this timeline in mind. this was a timeline we knew from the very beginning, both from eu

and u.s. side. so i am hopeful it would lead to results. annmarie: valdis dombrovskis, thank you so much for your time. that was the eu trade minister before he speaks with katherine tai and gina raimondo. jonathan: good to catch up with our washington growth born -- washington correspondent down in d.c. an update if you are just tuning in on tv and radio, we are softer, -0.6% on the s&p, so clear underperformance on the nasdaq yesterday and today, -1.3 four present on the nasdaq 100. a lot of is playing through what is happening with the bond reckitt right now -- the bond market right now. tom: almost green on the screen in small caps. it is 7:50 4 wall st time, so we do quote the dow, negative 1% something here.

it is a crater. we are down less than 4%. it is a drawdown of less than 4% on the s&p 500. jonathan: it is interesting to see this with treasury yields breaking out. tom: that's true, but we are so addicted to upend away. -- to up, up and away. lisa: how much legs does the move actually have? how much is this a buying opportunity for some people, like five year treasuries, like priya misra says? it is too early to say if this is a shift in the mindset. it is also too early to say this is a reversion back. jonathan: it is also just too early. lisa: should we go home? [laughter] jonathan: at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, we will go home. yields a bit higher by three or four basis points. later today, chairman powell, secretary yellen testifying on

capitol hill. we will be taking that on bloomberg tv and radio. this equity market, we have been developing the sickle trade -- the cyclical trade, the return of it for months now. is this it, or a bit of a head fake? ♪

>> the market is starting to look forward to the healing and developed economies. >> a lot of things are changing right now that are leading to higher yields. >> the market is really edging towards reflation. >> if we were to have a real debt crisis and default crisis, the fed has options. >> deceleration in growth and inflation will mean even though they have hocks, it will be difficult to start aggressively tightening in 2022. tom: oil, $80 a