exit this year and go into 2022 with the synchronized global expansion. >> can be seeing much stronger manufacturing activity, but we don't have sufficient supply. >> we may have seen the bottlenecks shift from sourcing to logistics. >> there's a big income hit coming for households at the lower and middle income distribution. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: waving goodbye to q3. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17 on the s&p, up 0.4%. we are on course for six straight quarters of gains. tom: it's been choppy.

what i would note, even with the equity recovery of the last number of days, the vix still near a 22 level. there is still that choppy tension as we go towards the new quarter. jonathan: euro-dollar, a break of $1.16. the weakest euro we have seen going back to july 2020. strongest dollar we have seen all year. what underpins that move? tom: i'm going to suggest i don't know. finally, what is underlining this quarter is how quiet this has been. jonathan: how well anchored is this move? how durable will it be? lisa: i'm going to provide a potential narrative at my absolute peril. i think it is fascinating to see you move up the stronger dollar, higher yields in the 10 year, and weaker equity performance . how much is this a quantitative

easing unwind trade? this to me as one of the questions as we watch real yields rise to the highest since june. jonathan: equities risk off, bond yields higher usually positive for the u.s. dollar. luke kawa of ubs is going to weigh in on that, and then jordan rochester of new mora. on the s -- of new mora -- of nomura. on this be, up 0.4%. i know recency bias is a real thing, but it doesn't feel like that. it feels like something much bigger than that. euro-dollar, $1.1572. crude, $74.64 on wti. lisa: 7:00 a.m., we are lucky to have the assistance bigger of the house of representatives joining us on bloomberg. the question i have, will there

be a vote today on the bipartisan bill? can there be some sort of coming to mind of the democrats, giving the sense that there will be another plan that can be passed? if they don't vote on this, it seems those divisions are that much deeper. 8:00 a.m., u.s. initial jobless claims. the expectation is for 330,000. also getting the third quarter quinn -- the third print for the second quarter gdp. what i am watching is for any sign of the participation rate. i find this so interesting. if you look at the participation rate of people 55 in order, it -- 55 and older, it has not rebounded. people have been retiring early, and part because they have more savings. how much can this continue? will a market -- will these people get lured back into a market?

a lot of turmoil at the federal reserve. i am curious how much questioning there will be over jay powell, how much pylon there is from senator warren, who said over and over you acted to make our banking system less safe. that is what make you a dangerous man, and it is why i will oppose urea nomination -- oppose renomination. jonathan: dangerous man, quote of the week so far. i want to talk about the equity market. i know you want to talk about ice hockey. what do you want to say? tom: no, i think you are right, dangerous man is the quote of the week. i don't want to talk about hockey right now. we will get to it later. jonathan: just want to check in before talk to luke, luke kawa, ubs asset management. another quarterly gain on the s&p 500. six in a row now. you still likely cyclical hurry -- like the sickle who trade. help us understand why.

-- likely cyclical trade. help us understand why? -- help us understand why. luke: i think certainly china headline risks rising, those haven't dented that trade. when you get bad news that fails to manifest in the price action, that is usually a good sign that the fed is trying to reach and we are running for the -- we are looking for the more procyclical trade to emerge. even just downshifting into an environment where the second derivative has much more than turned, but we are still at a pretty high level, that implies some pretty strong earnings growth ahead. tom: i love the ubs take on the composition of our american

economy, the composition of nominal gdp. what is your team's level of uncertainty, q4, q1 2022, because you can't figure out the composition of growth? luke: i had that has been the big question that has shaded a lot of interact what he market performance. i think everyone has been in the same ballpark in terms of nominal gdp estimates. so far this year, we have been getting a lot more inflation and a lot less growth. we have seen positive signs that you are shifting more towards an environment of that healthier gdp mix, where you're starting to see inflationary pressures subside. if you look at the undercurrent of the ism manufacturing report, you are seeing prices paid moderate while new orders are staying firm.

you are getting signs that we could be on the verge of at least one of the two world's largest economies, and acceleration in growth from q3 to q4. that is something we believe will provide some positive momentum heading into 2022. lisa: how much do you see there being legs to this stronger trade -- to this trait of stronger dollar and potentially a bit of weakness and portions of the equity market? luke: we really like adding the dollar as a buffer to some of the more cyclical positions we have, in terms of expecting yield to go higher, expecting cyclicals to outperform, and also because it offers various outs if you think the u.s. economy is posted to closing its output gap, closer to regaining its precrisis growth trend. do we think there are limits to dollar strength?

certainly. for possibly cyclicals, there are certain points where that is reached. that is why is a hedge that can work along with a lot of other positions we have, but i don't think it is necessarily something we count on for a very long time. jonathan: clearly performing right now with some risk aversion over the last week. is that something you keep into 2022, that dollar exposure, just for that? luke: it is something we definitely keep on now as we wait for a couple of things. jonathan: bit of a technical issue there was luke. tom: i hit the button. [laughter] jonathan: luke, we got to leave it there, sir. thanks for being with us. tom: wired right into my button. [laughter] jonathan: former bloomberg process at reporter. tom: oh, he was with us? jonathan: he used to have

shorter hair. hard to recognize him now. what do you make of that comment at the end? dollar strength story for him, it is the hedge for the team at ubs. tom: i will go with the hedge thing because everyone has been complacent. i looked at the equity chart today, and it screams complacency over the last number of months. have we been tested in the last couple of weeks, which makes hedges advantageous? not in equities, but to get out the hedge and opportunities in the dollar market. jonathan: a lot of people have been caught very wrongfooted in this affects market -- this affects market. -- this fx market. lisa: the idea of higher u.s. yields is going to be choppy. it is not going to come with uniform improvement in the global economy. that is i think what we are seeing right now. that is why there seems to be this preeminence of the greenback at a time when people are still doubling down on the

cyclicals. jonathan: just a brilliant lineup through the next hour to get you up to speed on what is happening in the fx market. jordan rochester of nomura, then geoff yu of bny mellon. coming up in the next 60 minutes or so. in about 10 minutes, we will talk about washington, d.c. and policy. i just want to remind her audience of something larry summers said earlier this year, that editorial in "the washington post" in february, when he pushed back against the inflation call. loads of headlines, we carried on talking about it for months, but it was more than just about a push back against the inflation story, the transitory story. it was this quote right here. "how will political and comic space be found for public investments that should be the nation's highest priority if you pass this $1.9 trillion bill?" that was the right question to ask, and in many ways, mr.

summers was right about what has transpired. tom: we overlay fiscal on fiscal, and the part of the economy doing so well, and a huge part of america flat on its back. damian sassower much ago publishes for bloomberg on emerging markets. turkish lira out at 8.90, and damian says less transitory when you look at inflation dynamics. jonathan: the language has changed. what he said yesterday, a process with a beginning, middle, and end. that's english, all right. lisa: the past two vague -- the path to -- the path to vaguer than transitory. jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

congress and president biden are set to avoid a shut down on the federal government with just hours to spare. it is the eve of the new fiscal year, and the senate and house are set to vote to extend government funding until september 3 -- until december 3. the house plans to vote today on an infrastructure package that underscores deep divisions amongst democrats. and the latest sign that china's economy is slowing down, activity in the factory sector contracted this month for the first time since the pandemic began. that shows the damage and widespread electricity shortage -- the damage that widespread electricity shortage is having on growth. criminal court found that sarkozy spent roughly $50 million, about twice as much as lazily -- as legally allowed. earlier this year, sarkozy was convicted of corruption. mark has agreed to ash -- merck

has agreed to buy xl around -- to buy acceleron pharma. the move is seen as strengthening merck's cardiovascular pipeline. the faa has given richard branson's company the green light to resume flights to the edge of space. virgin galactic made changes to the company policy after the vehicle veered off course carrying branson and others. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

rep. pelosi: i spent a good deal of time in the meeting talking about the debt ceiling because

we have to get that done. it would be $15 trillion in household elf that would go down the drain. unemployment would go up to 9%. the president is negotiating. we are hoping we can come to a place. it is not about a dollar amount. jonathan: speaker pelosi on the effort down in washington. from new york this morning, good morning. your equity market up 19 on the s&p, two hours away from the opening bell, the final trading day of q3. we advanced 0.4 percent. yields are higher by a basis point to 1.53%. euro-dollar, $1.1573, -0.2%. as always, the focus seems to be on the democrat from west virginia, joe manchin. senator manchin said, let's look and see. i'm concerned about inflation. tom: there it is. i really wonder how many people around him are supporting his

efforts. annmarie hordern is in washington, joining us right now. we talked to jack fitzpatrick about the philosophical stuff going on. let's go tactical with you. what happens as washington awakes this morning? beginning at 9:00 a.m., what is actually going to happen in the halls of congress? annmarie: this morning, the senate is going to vote on a bill to avoid a government check on. they just have a few hours, starting tomorrow morning -- just have a few hours. starting tomorrow morning, we would have a government shutdown, which means federal employees would have to go home or they wouldn't get paid -- would have to go home. they wouldn't get paid. this has happened before any past. but they are going to avoid this. there's going to be votes on this this morning, and it will go to the house this afternoon, so potentially one check off the big boxes of the number of things they need to get done. they are still negotiating the debt ceiling which is definitely

the more critical issue at hand. tom: tell me about these two bills. does speaker pelosi have the liberals come into her office, and do they have morning tea? what is the process of negotiation? annmarie: you are talking about the infrastructure bills now. there is supposed to be a vote on that. speaker pelosi could unilaterally take this bill off the floor for a vote today. she had said in the past that she does not like to, and she does not bring bills to the floor if she does not have the votes. you saw her yesterday at the congressional baseball game making phone calls in the dugout. she is trying to make sure she can get these votes. at the moment, it is fair to say that she just does not have them. the progressives are not going to vote for that. what ignited the progressives, this is their leverage for the reconciliation package, the tax and spending package for medicare, climate initiatives, and the like was that letter

from senator joe manchin. he said it is "fiscal insanity" to think of this. until they see senator manchin or arizona's kyrsten sinema move a bit, they are not going to vote for this deal today if it comes to the floor. we should note com -- note, speaker pelosi could pull it. lisa: i'm not going to let you slough off the extension. basically, the application is this is not a big deal. correct? annmarie: it is not a big deal because they are going to vote on it today. that is where the direction of travel is in the senate. it is not going to include the debt ceiling. it is going to have bipartisan support, and it will be dealt with. so worries about avoiding a shutdown of the government have really subsided in the past 24, 48 hours. that is really not the issue they need to work out. they need to work out the issue of the debt ceiling, and right now both sides have dug in their heels. republicans insist democrats must do it alone.

democrats continuously say they want bipartisan support or a simple majority, not going through the reconciliation package. republicans have said no. we have a very fast timetable to october 18. we have had government shutdowns before. we have done that before. we have never defaulted on our debt. that would be a completely different scenario. lisa: something that links both of these issues, the debt limit, spending terms, and the idea of the infrastructure spending, it goes back to something jon was talking about, about how the biggest risk is if the $1.9 trillion of spending for the pandemic era economy would take the oxygen out of the room for additional infrastructure spending. is that the correct way to view what is going on currently, that all of the spending that took lace during the pandemic really was what has made people not willing to go beyond the $500 billion price tag on the bill? annmarie: if you speak to

senator joe manchin, that is his line. he is worried about inflation. many republicans are worried about inflation, worried that there is too much spending. this is why senator manchin has called for a "strategic pause" in this reconciliation package. it seems yesterday he is up for doing something on taxes, rolling back the 2017 trump era tax breaks, but that seems to be all he is willing to do. he through a lot of cold water on what is going on with the -- he threw a lot of cold water on what is going on with the reconciliation package. but bernie sanders wanted $6 trillion. so it really depends on who you ask, whether this is going to affect inflation. those who defend the 3.5 trillion dollars talk about the fact that this is over a decade. this isn't going to hit money in the pocket the way the coronavirus aid did immediately. tom: in a warehouse in new jersey is buried the technical qualifications and equipment of bloomberg television and radio, and jon, we can bring you the

panda cam. jonathan: the nationals panda cam -- the national zoo panda cam? [laughter] what do we do just sit on cam two and wait? tom: the grass is growing in washington. lisa: for people listening on radio, it is basically just grass. a couple of logs. jonathan: thanks for explaining. carry on. lisa: i does want to explain that the image is really stellar. jonathan: helpful for the people on radio. there's nothing to see. annmarie, thank you. annmarie hordern downing washington, d.c. on the -- annmarie hordern down in washington, d.c. on the larry summers piece from earlier this year, there was a was a difference between offering relief to people who need to people who had full-time jobs, and a pool of savings

because they weren't able to spend over the last 12 months. it is the latter part of the story that juiced demand into an economy that was supply constrained and fueled the inflation we have had over the last several months. that was ultimately the point larry summers made earlier this year, and we are seeing the consequences of that. it will mean different things to different people, but for people like senator manchin, when they say we are worried about inflation, we can talk about whether he should be or not. the point is this would always take the oxygen out of the room for some people, including the likes of senator manchin. tom: the fractious nature of the democratic party. jonathan: it is not a sickle party, tom. there are no two parties in d.c. tom: where is the negotiation? i don't see it yet. annmarie says they are waiting on statistics from the moderates. maybe. lisa: but do you actually think that inflation is the real issue that is pushing back some of the negotiations? jonathan: it is not about what i think.

it is about what senator manchin says. lisa: but i think it is a valid point, what you are raising. jonathan: jordan rochester of nomura joins us in five minutes. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: we are looking at a six straight orderly gain -- a six straight quarterly gain for the s&p 500. advancing 0.4%. on the russell, up 0.8%. on the nasdaq, up about 0.5% as we close out the month of september and q3. a look at the bond market. we have been all over the place, as low as one -- as low as 1.12%. on the quarter, we have only move six basis points higher on a 10-year treasury yield. i know how choppy it has been. north of 2% still on 30's, 2.0739%. let's talk about foreign-exchange. that's been the big move in the

last 48 hours. we move again. the dollar index, andy $4.46 -- $94.46. we advance by more than 0.1%. we could talk about dollar strength. we can talk about euro weakness. whatever we do, we've got to talk about it. tom: i'm watching yen, nicely through a 1.12 level. jonathan: the rates move stateside underpinning this one. interesting that the rates moving the u.k. has not underpinned the move in sterling. jordan rochester is going to join us on that area when a currency gets unpredictable to trade, what do you do? do you trade it or walk away? tom: you watch football. jonathan: that is the problem for cable. the dollar, $94.45. that's the price action. let's get you some price action -- some individual movers with romaine. romaine: merck finally

confirming that deal with acceleron. that will give access to that hypertension drug. about $11 billion in cash coming out of the pocket of merck. carico rallying this morning, -- perrigo rallying this morning, finally settling that european tax case in ireland. one of the retail favorites out there is actually dole. this came to the market is a public company in july. it has been a huge underperformer since then, but it is gaining this morning. will it hold into the close? that would push it back into the green here. let's take a look at the other names out there. we've got a downgrade today at bank of america because of supply chain issues. it is the inability of coals to

raise prices -- of kohl's to absorb some of those prices, whether they can shoulder the burden of that. virgin galacti also getting a bid here. -- virgin galactic also getting a bid here. virgin galactic now has the green light to resume flights. tom: would you go up? romaine: it is a little outside my budget, but i would definitely go. if you can pull some money, maybe we can go together. and electronic arts, i know you are a big videogame buff, up fractionally on the day. this stock has been on a five day run, now a six-day run. keybanc adding electronic arts, as well is activision, to its favorites list, saying videogame stocks are under value. tom: right now, we have been doing this all morning, annmarie hordern brought up panda cam. we have some action that goes directly to our next guest

because we've got the beast out moments ago, playing with a soccer ball. jonathan: trying to find the beast now. tom: no, the beast went off camera. . but he was there moments ago, playing with a soccer ball, desperate to help tottenham. jonathan: you want to link this to premier league football? tom: he could speed up the midfield. jonathan: i can't make this work, tom. jordan rochester joins us next, nomura g10 fx strategist. tom: he will be there. jonathan: he will be there for spurs this weekend? not sure what that has to do with pandas or anything. let's start with sterling. that has become really unpredictable, hard to trade. i know you are scratching your head. i read your note earlier this week. you have been really transparent, honest. you don't have a clue either. what are people saying to you? jordan: we've gone back to the old ways of looking at the pound. even though it is not brexit,

none of that stuff, we are looking at sterling with an inflation premium view. what is that about? we have a fuel crisis. people are going to get petrol in their cars. the u.k. is highly exposed to this gasp crisis that has taken place. we are seeing the price of energy and the u.k. spiraling quite a lot higher. the one thing that has really made it difficult is we have priced in bank of england rate hikes, three rate hikes price for next year. it tells me we've got to adapt to the old framework, which is keep an eye out for u.k. inflation expectations. if they keep rising, if energy prices keep rising, that is going to weigh on the pound. jonathan: i'm going to ask a question, and i will get a lot of hate mail. this is not my view. is this trading like an em currency now? jordan: it's a question you always get asked. it is the currency that is

having an inflation problem, and emerging markets simply have higher expectations, so yes. in that respect, it is trading like an em currency. but it is still one of the reserve currencies of the world outside the dollar, so we are not going to go too far and say it is untreatable. you can definitely -- untreatable -- un-tradable. you can definitely trade it. it is just unpredictable. tom: we have a dollar giving us kind of a mill you -- kind of a millieu. jordan: we've had the dollar and a very tight range for the summer, and as we have gone back to work, kind of woken up her buddy up to the risk you're building up over that period. euro-dollar has been in a range, and we had leverage. what i have been saying to clients is i think euro is having its yen moment.

think back to q1 this year, when u.s. rates moved higher. the real money community threw in the towel. they went long dollar-yen. they didn't do the same in euro. the european reopening story was still very attractive, and we had eps flows in europe. now we have broken below $1.16 which is a line in the sand for me. i think this is a regime change. lisa: you do see the euro going back against the dollar. i believe that with your call. can you talk about the past to get there and how the ecb responds to some of the inflationary input, even though they call them transitory? jordan: the dollar view is still predicated on a global recovery, but right now we have a true slowdown. that is why we are talking about dollar strength here and now. we get into q1 next year, we will hopefully priced and a lot of that slow down, and then we will start to focus on the

positives again. the european mobility data is fantastic. the return to work has been much stronger than it has been in the u.s., according to google, apple data, and the statistics we look at. be that means a european outperformance story next year. we might have got the german coalition to announce the policies they will actually do. maybe this market focuses on those growth numbers. that could boost euro again. the ecb has got the same situation as the u.k.. energy prices are going up. they had been nearly double, 9.5% inflation basket in euro is energy. so energy costs rising is a big for their actual inflation forecast, but they will be able to rest on low inflation. the idea of raising rates next year is very low, but we will be looking at 2024. there's already one rate hike priced in at the end of it, so do we see the ecb raise rates in 20 when he for, for years away

-- in 2024, three years away? lisa: central bankers have broadly said that energy prices are not something they look at for core inflation. it isn't going to necessarily bleed into their view in terms of whether to raise rates and to have factors that go beyond monetary policy. why is this time different? jordan: this time is different because we have just had record fiscal stimulus. it isn't going to be just energy. it is going to be a lot of parts of the cpi basket coming up, and the main thing for me is look at those consumer inflation expectations. they are not falling get they are rising. they are rising slowly, but over time, as prices feedthrough to people's budget, their lecture see bills, when they start to see food and clothing going up, they will start to think maybe inflation is higher than 2% and i my want to raise my inflation at patients. i am not talking about a wage spiral -- inflation expectations. i am not talking about he wage spiral, but the direction is

probably higher in inflation expectations, and that is something central banks was bond to. jonathan: euro-dollar looking for one dollar 14 sense. spurs-villa, you will be there. what are you looking for? jordan: if we get anything close to the shock result of the one against man u, i will be happy. tom: we are talking about how many beaver town beverages are you going to have. that is the prediction. [laughter] jordan: at least a couple, for sure. jonathan: can't drink them in the stands anymore, can you? jordan: i thing they change that. jonathan: are they? you can bring beers back into the stands? you have to drink really quickly, and then come back out, which is why you see the stands are still slightly empty until about the 48th minute, 50th minute. tom: i am learning so much everyday. jonathan: jordan, thank you. jordan rochester of nomura, g10 fx strategist. tom: this is important. president trump was president

right now, he would be starting the discussion about competitive u.s. exports. you go $1.14 euro or yen, they mean different things. but the bottom line is other presidents would be talking about diminished u.s. exports. jonathan: do you expect a tweet from president biden? tom: i don't know what to ask from washington right now. we've got an entire -- folks come our team is so large that we have taken 1/3 of our team, and they are on panda watch, and we have gone down in flames. jonathan: a busy thursday here at bloomberg, clearly. tom: is it thursday? jonathan: it is. tom: i've spent the whole day thinking it is wednesday. jonathan: no, it is thursday. almost there, buddy. going to get you through this. tom: it's wednesday. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. tom: what is the panda look like

me? ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. congress cutting it close in an effort to avert a government shutdown. the house and senate are expected today to ask and -- to extend government spending to december 3. dealmaking continues on the president's economic agenda. the house plans to vote today on an infrastructure package that underscores deep division among the democrats. the g7 economies are looking for ways to restart international travel. bloomberg haslinda transport and health ministers will meet virtually today, aimed at moving closer to a consensus on how to ease border restrictions. some countries, including the is of the eu, have used so-called vaccine passports. others like the u.s. have held back for reasons ranging from politics to privacy. china is applying its zero-tolerance coronavirus policy for next year's winterland picks in beijing. it is limit -- next year's winter olympics in beijing.

olympic athletes who are not fully vaccinated will be quarantined for 21 days once they arrive. kanye west's new collection of sweatshirts for gap is a huge hit. the $90 hoodies were marked as sold out. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the debt limit is bonkers. it is a limit that is imposed

after the fact. congress already voted to cut taxes, voted to authorize spending. then after they have done that, you come back and say wait a minute, we wouldn't be able to make the payments that we have already authorized. no other major economy has that. jonathan: playing that game again down in washington. austan goolsbee, chicago booth school professor. good morning. your equity market this thursday morning advancing 12 points, up by 0.3%. yields with a lift, up a single basis point to 1.3237%. euro-dollar breaking down below $1.16. we are -0.2%. this morning once again, dollar strength. tom: and the resiliency of the american economy getting through this pandemic. all that fiscal stimulus into the calculus of what we do in economics, finance, and investment.

right now we consider washington with someone who is steeped in what infrastructure can do. katherine clark is the assistant speaker of the house. she represents the fifth district of the commonwealth of massachusetts, and is adjacent to the most successful infrastructure project ever done. kathy clark, i stood in boston in abject awe and looked across the torn down southeast expressway in a north end i had never seen in my life area can we bring that infrastructure success to the rest of america? rep. clark: we are going to do just that. that project, the big dig, shows us what we can do. not only create good jobs, improve our roads and bridges, but also reconnect communities. we have seen that play out over and over again, that communities , especially communities of

color and low income communities, have been cut off. so our infrastructure plan plans to do that physically, and also help those who have been cut off by lack of opportunity to be part of a roaring economy that we are going to build. tom: i will go with that. i think that is a very good idea. but do you do it linked to a social program, or is today's action going to be u.n. speaker pelosi going to delink infrastructure and future big dig from a social agenda? rep. clark: this is all about building a great economy, getting people back to work. these are always part of one build back better agenda. there's roads, bridges, broadband, getting the lead out of our water, and making investments to have the workforce of the future. we know whether you are warren buffett or the local restaurants

that i recently held a roundtable with, childcare is a huge barrier for getting people back to work. tom: the nation is in crisis, even if you were playing baseball last night and that double-play you went into was terrible. kathy clark, you mentioned bad water. dan kilby of flint, michigan has lived bad water. he's got to go out for u.n. speaker pelosi and count the votes today. can you count the votes attaching this infrastructure bill to a $3.5 trillion social agenda of liberals? rep. clark: this is the agenda of the american people. this is the agenda of american business. do we want a full recovery, or do we not? these are absolutely on parallel tracks. they are the president's agenda, built from his conversations throughout this country.

so whether you are in rural america and you can't find childcare or you need to get the lead out of the water in our urban cities or in our suburbs, this is all part of how we address this moment of economic, racial, and climate justice. lisa: do you think there will be a vote today in the house of representatives on the $550 billion bipartisan land -- bipartisan plan? rep. clark: we are working everyday to make sure we have a pass to get to the vote. i can tell you this about the democratic caucus. we are united behind this build back better agenda because we know that this is what our economy needs to meet this moment of great challenge. lisa: but what happens if that vote is not held today because there are not of -- not enough votes to agree on the bill back better part of the package, the two-part issue that the democrats would like to pass?

rep. clark: what i know for sure is that we are going to pass both parts of these. if we can do that today, that is what we are working every minute of today to make sure happens. but if it doesn't, that doesn't mean this is over. this is a commitment. this is why the american people sent joe biden to washington, why we have the majority. there is a deep unity around making sure that we rebuild this economy, we address the urgency of climate change, and we make these critical investments in the american people so they can get back to work. jonathan: to be clear, you don't think today is an important day? rep. clark: today is a critical day. jonathan: to have the vote? i am just trying to find out because you read the script, we go away, and i am still not sure if there's a vote today. rep. clark: well, we are still in negotiations.

we want to get to yes. everybody does. that is what the white house is working on. that is what leadership is working on. that is what our whole caucus is working on. but whether that bodes happens today -- that vote happens today, and i hope it does come of this is not over if we have not reached that in our negotiations. our commitment is to getting this entire agenda done, and that will happen. that is what is happening because we are committed to the american people, and meeting this moment of great challenge with one of great progress. we also have a deadline today of keeping government open, and we will also deliver on that. we will not allow a government shutdown. we are going to take up, go back and make sure that, as your opening said, we deal with this issue of the debt ceiling. it is a primary response ability. -- responsibility.

we have already accrued the debt. the spending is in our past. this is about moving forward, and democrats are going to ensure that we protect the full faith and credit of the united states. jonathan: i have a feeling we will be talking about this again. representative catherine mark, assistance -- katherine clark, assistant speaker of the house of representatives. an update from capitol hill this morning. tom: i get it, she's got to stay on script to be safe and all that. i thought you got her at the end to really talk about what matters today. i am way more focused on infrastructure and the social program bill as it moves to november of next year then i am on the hysterics about this. jonathan: do using the success of the midterms depends on passing it? i asked that because the moderates might have a different view on things. tom: it is a really tough call. but i would say is every expert says there's a great fragility

here. i know speaker pelosi knows that. this is her legacy. jonathan: geoff yu of bny mellon weighing in on this market shortly. good morning. equity futures up 15 on the s&p. rounding out q3, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> is that economic growth going to be sustained as a going to next year? a lot of signs that growth is decelerating. >> we are going to exit this year and go into 2022 with a synchronized global expansion. >> bonds and equities are setting up together. actually that means a very positive environment for the u.s. dollar. >> there's a big income hit coming for those households at the lower and middle income distribution. >> there will be higher prices, and they will continue. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.