>> is that economic growth going to be sustained as a going to next year? a lot of signs that growth is decelerating. >> we are going to exit this year and go into 2022 with a synchronized global expansion. >> bonds and equities are setting up together. actually that means a very positive environment for the u.s. dollar. >> there's a big income hit coming for those households at the lower and middle income distribution. >> there will be higher prices, and they will continue. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

end of the quarter. on radio, on television, a one-hour briefing here on the step forward for q4. we've got a set of guests to give us the clarity on what i don't know of the next 90 days. jonathan: looking forward to catching up with geoff yu from bny mellon. with this fx market putting up some big numbers now, euro-dollar a breakdown for the dollar. -- a breakout for the dollar. tom: it is a litmus paper for the global system. we can look at this pair, that pair. we will do that any moment. but how does that you over -- how does that move over to a stock market that has cratered? it is an annual yield over 90 days of 7.4%. i thought that is what we were supposed to do. jonathan: it is the sixth straight quarterly gain on the s&p. we are doing ok. but let's be clear, q4 could really be choppy.

we got some issues to resolve, washington being one of them. the federal reserve another. we got to get through earnings season. tom: one of the best things about this show is lisa abramowicz is never on talking points. [laughter] jonathan: without a doubt. tom: the assistant speaker katherine clark of the fifth district was with us, and she was on talking points. they don't work with the mess in washington, do they? lisa: basically, they don't want to give a commitment or give any sense that there's a lot of disagreement right now. we don't have a sense of where the balance of power is in terms of what we will actually get. the fiscal spending cliff is one of the issues that i think has been one of the most understated. we talk about monetary policy, but we are seeing this runoff of some of the benefits. how much will that bleed into consumer spending beyond september, beyond the third quarter, into year-end as we bring forward our christmas

purchases. tom: we heard that from michelle meyer. the american consumer to the rescue. jonathan: savings have been great. will they deploy them? will they really start deploying those savings into an economy where we expect a step up in q4? q3, soft step up into q4. tom: we are watching the history of nine lire to the -- nine lira to the dollar. yes, it is in the of syncretic, but it is symptom -- it is idiosyncratic, but it is symptomatic of em. jonathan: we get a 25 basis point hike out of the central bank of mexico. euro-dollar -0.2 percent. yields higher by a basis point to 1.5289%. 17 points higher on the s&p, positive 0.4%. tom: let's go to geoffrey yu

with bny mellon. they are holistically bringing the limits paper of the dollar in. -- leave -- the litmus paper of the dollar in. german gdp, hardwired from world war ii, that is acceptable. geoff: listen to madame lagarde yesterday. she thought a phrase that i thought wouldn't be uttered, second round of sets from inflation. the euro zone, ecb is starting to worry about inflation becoming entrenched. the dollar, u.s. inflation, if they had turned out to to three more percent, you will get two the three moves higher as well. tom: when you take your lse dynamics away from the equity markets, for bny mellon clients, can you fold in and optimism towards u.s. equities, or is it

such noise right now that you can do that? -- that you can't do that? sam: the optimism -- geoffrey: the optimism for u.s. is that the cpi-ppi gap is the lowest out of all the major markets right now. that is really important because of higher cpi, you can pass those on to the consumer. that is margin comfort, a margin buffer for u.s. corporate's. german ppi we are talking about 12% now, and 8% cap. after that, margins and the u.s. are in a much better place. jonathan: start of the year, 1920's. end of the year, people talking about the 1970's. that is a big swing. geoffrey: i think it is important when it comes to stagflation. this generations central bankers have probably lived through it, but have never had to deal with it.

china's assent to the wto, globalization, that has been a theme over the last 20 years, and countries have to do with it in different ways. we are pushing back heavily against expectations for three hikes next year. jonathan: what does that mean for foreign-exchange? geoffrey: euro sterling higher right now on a relative basis. that is one of the key relative value calls. this trait has legs to run. we have a new japanese prime minister. he talked about trillions of yen. that is important when it comes to pushing forward the yen carry trade. the dollar will still be dominant, and turkish lira and the like, em central banks, you need to guarantee positive real rates. you need to carry on hiking. otherwise, it is a long way down to your exchange rates.

lisa: .2 how this story carries out the idea of long dollar, if you have jordan rochester of nomura seeing gaining strength because the mobility numbers are up there. the vaccination numbers are up there. inflation numbers are up. this will all pressure long-term inflation forecasts and the forecast for the ecb. geoffrey: those factors are all true, but i cannot see why the u.s. can have those factors either. no reason to think that won't happen in europe either. the ecb link which has started to shift, coming off of such a below base. we are nowhere near there yet, so may be in a quarter or two. six or nine months down the line , we may be able to have some upward nudging and the projections, and they can start to change their view. but i think when they finished the ppp programs, they are not

going to be in the mood to change anytime soon. so euro-dollar bias may be around these levels. but the dollar and the fed, they are still going to be the dominant drivers. lisa: where the dollar is the dominant driver, that doesn't always mean good things for the rest of the world, and certainly risk assets. what will be the differentiating feature this time around, or will this also have a dampening feature on riskier securities? geoffrey: i think the one thing we can hope for is that if the dollar is dominant, the purchasing power of u.s. consumers will rise, and that will lift global economies. the u.s. consumer can still help lift global demand. that would be positive for emerging markets. at the same time, china is slowing. these things i think do very well for a positive risk ellen's. -- risk balance. tom: you are locked in a

room with the wonderful stanley fisher, holding court rock. you just said we need positive real rates for fragile economies, fragile nations. what is the price of that mandate? is it a lessening of assets? do asset prices collapse if we demand positive real rates? geoffrey: asset prices won't collapse. the offsetting factor is if you restrain demand domestically been your current account begins to improve. we have seen that across emerging markets since the pandemic. you have seen that collapse in imports. but of the same time, a lot of countries like thailand, the worst performing currency, the most under held currency, you are holding onto policy real rates. tom: are you long thai baht? is that what i am going to learn today? geoffrey: that is a currency to market still does not like. tom: but i am asking you.

there's nobody watching. come on. are you long thai baht? geoffrey: no, i wouldn't be long most of anything currently because you are replenishing your balanced payments just to stand still. once thailand opens up, we go to a broader sandbox. then we can start thinking about being long thai baht. that is when the currency stabilizes and starts to turn positive. we are nowhere near that yet. jonathan: miss you. miss london. geoff yu, bny senior strategist, thank you. we had some big moves from central banks in emerging markets that we haven't covered enough. we had a wonder basis point hike in brazil earlier this month. a little later today, we will likely have 25 basis points from mexico, and possibly col ombia as well. they responding -- they are responding to heightened

weakness, and that is the problem. tom: i love busting geoff yu's chops on individual calls because we know we are not going to get one. but they want big figure moves in em currencies, and we haven't seen that. jonathan: i think he came close to giving me a call, for what it is worth. tom: i'm looking for an entry point. jonathan: let me give you this headline. bidens agenda will pass even if there is no vote today, and we can't get whether or not there will be a vote today. lisa: basically, the agenda will pass. when is the vote? it will pass. jonathan: we are united, except there is no sign of them actually being united. s&p advancing 0.3% as we round out q3 with another quarterly gain, barring anything tricky happening today. yields higher by a basis point on 10 to -- on tens to 1.52 89%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: congress and president

biden are set to avoid a this rep of shutdown of the federal government with just hours to spare, on the eve of the new fiscal year. meanwhile, dealmaking continues on the president's economic agenda. the house plans to vote today on an infrastructure package that underscores deep divisions amongst democrats. it is the latest sign that china's economy is slowing down. activity in the factory sector contracted this month for the first time since the pendant and. that shows the damage widespread lectures the shortages are having on growth. president nicolas sarkozy has been convicted of deliberately overspending in his failed 2012 reelection campaign. a criminal part found he spent roughly $50 million -- a chronic court found he spent roughly $50 million -- a criminal court found he spent roughly $50 million, twice as much as is legally allowed. shares of bed, bath & beyond are

sinking today. second quarter sales missed expectations. the delta variant hammered bed, bath & beyond store traffic. merck has agreed to buy acceleron pharma in a deal that is worth a total of $11.5 billion. the takeover is seen as strengthening merck's cardiovascular pipeline. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the markets are going to pay much less attention to q3

results, much more attention to q4 and 2022 outlook. and yes, supply chain issues are a concern, but they are going to fade. asia is reopening. the port backlogs are going to ease. all of that stuff is temporary. it is not permanent. that provides a tailwind to the upside. jonathan: jay pelosky of tp w has a message area 2021 is over him. he's looking to 2022. good morning. your equity market up about 0.3% on the s&p, one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell, as we round out q3. yields are higher by a couple of basis points to 1.5358% on tens. euro-dollar, $1.1579, -0.16%. down in the sea, there's a fight. and senator manchin has this to say, "fiscal insanity."

democrats fighting with them across -- with democrats. tom: henrietta treyz of veda partners joins us on the debate of the moment. we were speaking with nancy pelosi, who is steeped in her father's politics in both tomorrow. has nancy pelosi ever seen the negotiations of the moment? henrietta: i think speaker pelosi has seen more than enough fights, but this is a different type of ballgame. the progressive caucus is 96 members strong, and they are not interested in the status quo, and their behavior is not historically be trained for the democratic party. obviously it is a big tent, but with three votes to spare, you don't have a majority that is able to just muscle through bills. it will take time, and speaker pelosi has been working diligently, as is her whole

leadership team. you might very well see failed votes or delays. this funding is for 300 projects nationwide. it becomes a real problem for progressives, and in turn for president biden, so i think speaker pelosi is facing a different category of player here. tom: how do the liberals give way and save face? henrietta: i think that you have to acknowledge that between last spring and september 30 is one kind of ballgame, and starting on october 1 is a very different ballgame. right now, progressives are just not helping president biden or his economy. beginning on friday morning, they will be actively hurting the president and his economy because the infrastructure spending that republicans agreed to this year will stop flowing

nationwide. governors and mayors are going to start saying, we need this funding for the department of transportation. not only do we need the routine funding, but what about that $550 billion in new investment that we can't access now? not only is it a not harm -- now it is only a no harm, no vowel situation, but starting friday morning, it will start -- no foul situation, but starting friday morning, it will start actively hurting. lisa: i want to talk about whether that is a feature or a bug of the group you'd basically, is this by design to basically say we are not part of the mainstream, and that they are not necessarily willing to negotiate unless they get exactly what they are looking for? henrietta: i'm reminded of the old adage that says the democratic congressman is talking to his colleague and says, i hate the republicans. they are the enemies. they say, they are not the enemies. they are the opposition.

the senate is the enemy. i believe the house believes the senate is their enemy within the party, and that is how they are treating this situation. fortunately we are far enough away from real calamity with things like the debt ceiling to avoid a material market moving event, but holding out for a $3.5 trillion bill that has zero chance of passing with 50 votes in the united states senate is a case study and being serious all the time. you're not going to get a bill that size, so it takes months to write bills of that magnitude. we've got 13 different bills. there is progress being made. now they are taking it half the -- taking it hostage and shooting it starting friday morning. lisa: who do you think is the biggest loser if there is not a vote today in the house of representatives? henrietta: i wonder they will hold a vote and it will fail, if

it passes, or hold a vote entirely. those are three different scenarios. at the end of the day, this is bad news for president biden. people have seen the white house in action. there's highly competent staff out there. they want to see that they can muscle through that are must past, like keeping government open or funding the department of transportation. there's a ripple effect, where investors see that you cannot pass the bipartisan inver structure bill through the house of representatives. what does that tell us about the ability of the democratic party to resolve the debt ceiling? jonathan: forgive me for asking for something that might come out of left field for you, but do you think the governor race in virginia captures the story we have just discussed, the mood of this country? henrietta: it is a good example.

i think this is what democrats are looking out across the board. you are seeing it not just in virginia, but seeing it in discussions in arizona. kyrsten sinema may get primary she is continuing this behavior. i think there are corollaries across the nation that you could compare it to. i think the reality, as we have been telling investors since the beginning of this year, is 50 votes in the senate and 220 in the house is not a functioning majority. you are seeing that fight play out. it is interesting to me that there are still investors out there saying the capital gains hike is going to be retroactive to april of this year because democrats are going to push through their whole agenda, and it is a shoe in -- a shoo-in. it is not realistic. tom: i know you and i are dazzled by jon ferro's knowledge of virginia politics. don't ask me about manchester politics. but i do have to ask about terry

mcauliffe or joe biden as fossils of another time of the democratic party. does it look that way? henrietta: i got that question from an investor yesterday verbatim, and i think it is not appropriate. president biden has passed four massive pieces of legislation in less than nine months. a fiscal year 2021 budget, fiscal year 2022 budget, a 1.8 $9 trillion covid relief bill and a one point $2 trillion bipartisan relief package. those are massive bills, and he did it all in the first nine months. to say that a guy who's in the senate for 36 years is a relic, maybe his opponents are a little bit different right now -- not his opponents, but his teammates are a bit different, and he is trying to work with a younger group, but between pelosi, schumer, and president biden, you've got 100 years of legislative experience, and i wouldn't trade that for the world. jonathan: well said. thank you.

one of the best out of d.c. tom: that was great. jonathan: only on my radar because of glenn juncker and, formerly of -- because of glenn youngkin, formerly of carlyle. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 16 points on the s&p. economic data in america drops. here is michael mckee. michael: we have been waiting for good news on jobless claims and we do not get it. they went up to 362,000 from 351,000, the unrevised number. the revised number -- it was not revised. in in cleese -- an increase in jobless claims for the third week in a row which is a little bit high given the situation. remember how many people in congress said we will see a lot more people getting jobs because

the extended federal benefits went away. in this case they did not. we do see a huge drop in the number of people getting benefits. this is the first week where we get the data because it is delayed on what happened after february 6. when the extended benefits go way the drop is 6 million 222,000 -- 6,222,000 people no longer getting federal jobless benefits. a year ago it was 27 million. a big change in number of people getting jobless claims in the number of people filing first-time claims goes up for the day. we also got the third read on second-quarter gdp. up by 1/10. personal consumption, are spending marked up 12% from

11.9%. that is probably much of how that is accounted. good news but definitely rearview mirror. today is the last day of the third quarter. will be looking at the third quarter gdp numbers which are not particular good. jonathan: wrong kind of upside supplies on -- surprise on claims. this would never be a market mover. you'll still higher by a couple of basis points. the yacht -- the dollar still stronger. payrolls next friday. nonfarm payrolls next friday. 500,000 is the estimate. early days, but that is the estimate. tom: early days as a key phrase. i think we will see adjustment as we move on. we will do that next week. jp morgan on a holistic and global basis will be good about framing up from 50,000 feet and

trying to bring it down to workable calculus. they've looked at productivity and technology and the rest. at the end of the day it is a mystery what will happen in the next 90 days. david kelly joins us. david kelly, what have you adapted and adjusted as we going to q4? david: we are still dealing with a lot of uncertainty until they clear up the situation in washington. we will either get a lot of clarity or chaos. we are betting on clarity. if you look at the claims data, there is this effect of the delta variant. the delta variant was much worse than anyone could have been dissipated in june and it did have a drag effect on the u.s. economy. you get 6.7% gdp for the second quarter, we will be down at 2%

for the third quarter. it will be a lot weaker. the good news is we've seen a number of confirmed cases down 30%. i think the fourth quarter will bounce back strongly. there are a lot of waves. there is an economic wave, there is a delta wave, and we have to work our way through. tom: to the waves to evolve in 2022 towards michael feroli's call on potential gdp? is the glide path sub 3% economic growth? david: i think it has to be in the long run. we have seen productivity gains from adjustments during the pandemic. i think we can hold onto those. it will be hard to add to that going forward. the problem is -- we are barreling towards full employment, notwithstanding claims data.

this time next year will be a pretty much full employment. from there we will get maybe .5% per year growth in total workers if we are lucky. hard to have more than 2% gdp growth. the good news is we have had productivity gains recently but it is hard to see stronger long-term growth. lisa: what kind of participation rate do we have when we get to full employment? david: the problem is it tracks on participation rates for the last decade as the baby boomers retire. the participation rates measures the percentage of the population age 16 and older. it is 16 to 100. so many baby boomers are still retiring in the labor force participation rate will look like it is coming down. in reality we will see some further bounce as people are

able to get back to work after covid. it will be generally lower than we saw in the last decade going over. part of it is you will need higher wages to lure people back into the workforce. lisa: before we get there we learned that christmas comes in september, thank you michelle meyer, so we need to talk about spending when we look at some of the ongoing benefits paid out in claims coming off, the idea of enhanced unemployment going away. how long-lasting of a drag on spending do expect that to be? david: i do not expected to be much of a drag. we have the child tax benefits which i think are powerful. the other thing that happens is a massive increase in wealth. i believe we have seen $32 trillion added to wealth since the end of 2019.

also a lot of people used to their stimulus checks and other benefits turn the pandemic to pay down credit cards. credit card balances fell sharply. i think for lower income households that is what they will do. even though the growth of income may slow, the growth of spending will not slip much. i think we'll have a good holiday season. there also supply constraints and consumer spending which will stretch out consumer demand into 2022. tom: given the price dynamics, what do revenues do at corporations? everyone is focused on earnings. what do revenues do given a bit of inflation? david: it is positive for revenues right now. what i think is going to happen is 2022 will come in like a lion and go out like a lamb. will have 6% real gdp growth in

the fourth quarter. by the fourth quarter of next year down to 2%. some of the year-over-year inflation will fade as supply chain kinks yet worked out. it is pretty good right now. extraordinary earnings. earnings growth over the next year will be much slower partly because topline revenue growth will be slower. lisa: also to the idea of input costs. you mentioned you do expect wages to rise more materially. how much will that be a hit to the companies, howbeit a benefit to the underlying economy? david: it is a big squeeze on corporate profits. the big line item. what we've seen in the past is when we have a high labor market , businesses have to pay new employees. when they hire someone they have to pay up to hire the person.

now the labor shortage is so pervasive companies have had to raise wages just to keep them. that would give you more long-lasting wage growth. it does squeeze the bottom line for corporations. they have been able to take advantage of consumers moving online. zoom technology, less travel expenses which only compels corporate profits. going forward strong wage growth will be one of the thing slowing off at. jonathan: going into 2022 like a lion and going out like a lamb. well said. j.p. morgan asset management chief lovell strategist david kelly. coming up in about 20 minutes, lisa shalett of morgan stanley wealth management cio. her words earlier in this week in a note of correction catalyzed by higher-than-expected inflation has arisen. a less constructive view from lisa shalett of morgan stanley. tom: jon and i are working on

this every day. we get mcdonald's on 3rd avenue three times a week to frame out the differing views from that is dynamic. from the j.p. morgan optimism versus what we hear from morgan stanley. jonathan: that nutrition is really helpful. it helps us think. tom: it goes later so the cheeseburgers taken. jonathan: what you think of 2022 out like a lion -- in like a lion and out like a lamb? lisa: is that price did? we see a bit of a roll -- is that priced in? we see a bit of a rolloff. that is the ultimate question. this does increasingly become consensus. jonathan: yesterday was a really defensive rally. staples bomb utilities, health care. lisa: there were fundamental reasons. micron reporting disappointing

earnings. it is a muddy picture. tom: lisa shalett, bed, bath & beyond, 24% south. jonathan: did you see dollar tree yesterday? things will no longer cost a dollar there. lisa: they've been hit hardest, the dollar stores. jonathan: there is a change. isn't that part of the story? the dollar store is now more than a dollar. tells you where we are at. tom: to go down madison avenue, i shop at visa tree. it is great. jonathan: i thought you going to fit and further down to get to gucci. tom: gucci tree. jonathan: more like it. your equity market up 17, advancing .4%. thank you. i will see you in q4. elsie the rest of you on bloomberg tv in 19 minutes -- i will see the rest of you on

bloomberg tv in 19 minutes. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. congress is coming and close on an effort to avert a government shutdown. the house and senate are expected to extend government spending to december 1 just hours before the new fiscal year begins. the house plans to vote today on an infrastructure package that underscores deep divisions among the democrats. the g7 economies are looking for ways to restart international travel. bloomberg has learned transport and health ministers will meet virtually. the meeting is aimed at moving closer to a consensus on how to ease order restrictions. some countries, including members of the eu have used vaccine passports. others like the u.s. have had -- ranging from politics to policy. china is applying its no

tolerance coronavirus policy to the winter olympics in beijing. olympic athletes who are not fully vaccinated will be quarantined for 21 days once they arrived. u.s. auto sales probably plunged in september according to an average its market researchers forecast. carmakers sold 12.2 million new vehicles at an annualized rate down 25% from a year ago. inventory has been trained because of the global shortage. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a highly unequal society is not an economically healthy society.

one thing that worries me even more than that. i'm lori worried about income and wealth inequality is inequality of opportunity. tom: mohamed el-erian, the university of cambridge is a place where robert costa studied years ago. we will get to woodward and costa in a moment. what is so important is the style of writing of peril. bob woodward has 14 bestsellers. there is a method to his madness. lisa: it highlights the different dynamics that mark washington, d.c. it is president trump and also the biden administration. there is a new frustration with the status quo. you grind away at the old establishment or do you sit down and say i will not move until it

all comes down? tom: robert costa out of notre dame holding court in cambridge and with him is bob woodward. they have teamed up for "peril." why did you pick robert costa? you could've picked anyone. bob: because he is the best reporter i have ever seen. his work ethic makes mine look weak. he just threw himself into this. he understands the republican party, he understands washington like no one. he taught me a great deal and it was -- i was saying to somebody, who did most of the work? i said actually we each did 60%. it is the kind of partnership

where everyone over performs. i think over performance for him is just a natural state. tom: congratulations on the book. this is woodward and costa. woodward with the courage to say i will find somebody to do this with me. the immediacy of the book is stunning. you have done loads of interviews. i want to talk about the future. you into your book by saying the -- you end your book by saying the peril remains. robert: i cannot have a better partner than bob woodward. the peril remains is a theme that runs throughout the book. it is not an opinion, it is through reporting. that is the woodward method. tell american politics through scenes. president trump is out there on the political campaign trail.

he has a warlike cadence in some of the speeches saying we will never surrender when it comes to conceding the 2020 election. he is demanding a comeback. tom: i will look at what we see with great grandin in the great american myth. look at the jacksonian history and how full to over to the gop. what kind of republican party do you perceive in 2024? robert: a republican party riven by division. someone like leader mcconnell wants to move on but somebody people inside the gop believe president trump still has political capital. his decision on 2024 will dominate where this party goes. vice president pence a complicated political figure may want to have his own say, and our other stars. president trump remains the political force inside the gop.

lisa: there is a question of what the current administration is facing in terms of getting a washington back to a semblance of what was considered normal. considering all of your coverage back to the nixon days, how dysfunctional is today's government based on the changes and up peoples we have seen over the past number -- and up peoples we have seen over the past number of years? bob: that is an important question. trump engineered a national security crisis we do not know about during the transition from trump to biden. as costa says, everything is peril. if we look at biden now he has immense problems with afghanistan, with the virus, and he is trying to work out some sort of legislation to get his

program through. he is running into obstacles in his own party. he is supposed to be the leader and say everyone do this. that is not the way washington works. maybe it is inevitable that people will be outliers. senator manchin, senator sinema, they will just say we are not going to march to somebody else's vision. we have our own. lisa: which raises the question about this new increasing frustration about a dysfunctional washington and how you go about handling it. i want to know if you think there's any president in terms of a group saying we will not work with the establishment until we get anything we want, which seems to be an increasing french on both sides of the

aisle, democrats and republicans. bob: there are precedents. president clinton had a hard time getting his plan through. it was a squeaker until the end. we will see the debate in washington, one of them is about taxing and spending. how much spending, how much taxing. biden has gone for everything. $3.5 trillion is a big spending package. we are going to see -- costa knows this better than anyone. there is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of peril, if i may lose that phrase, about where this goes. does the democratic party come apart? tom: robert costa and bob

woodward with us. peril, cannot say enough about it. after 14 bestsellers. bob woodward, deep background. robert costa, page 201 is everything about the future of the gop. mike lee of utah once to sit at barry goldwater's desk. there was a time of peril in 1964. i lived it as a kid. this peril, how do you perceive it worked out across both parties? robert: the mike lee example is such a prism into the gop right now. it was presented with the eastman metal, john easement presented a memo to senator lee about throwing out some electors on january 6 come about searching for alternate electors. lee finds this is not the case.

he does a lot of reporting on his own to prove -- to probe the eastman memo and finds there is no such thing as alternate electors. but this man, eastman, was in the oval office on january 4. this is something that was actively going on. pay attention to the action. what are people doing and saying? tom: i can go to your time at cambridge. let's swing to the democrats and look at their peril. i would suggest these democrats are remembered only by bob woodward in washington, pre-obama, pre-clinton. is this fractious democratic party like way back or is it something new? robert: there's a scene in the book where president biden looks up and a portrait of fdr and says this is the time for that kind of transformational change. what we see in the democratic

party is while biden won the presidency, bernie and his progressive movement have won power. sanders made the decision to work with biden rather than against him and you see biden moving to the left on this massive plan he is proposing that is currently on the rocks. biden is not moving towards the center and trying to be the guy cutting a deal with mitch mcconnell, and that dynamic continues. he wants to have a progressive legacy even though he is known as moderate joe biden. lisa: when you look at all of the reporting you did for peril, what is your take away of the new nature of the united states democracy in this new era? bob: that is being tested and stretched by both parties. i remember talking with president trump when he was in office in 2019, going into the oval office and saying the old

order in both parties, republican and democrat, is changing. it is evaporating. he said, yes. i said it looks like you see -- in 2016. he jumped in his chair saying i will do it again, talking about 2020. he did not. he lost. the big trump theme is the election was stolen. we dug into this as much as you can and we found these memos and this documentation that the biggest trump supporters realized there was no stolen election. what is trump running on? essentially his campaign is they stole it in 2020. there is no evidence.

somehow i can run in 2024 and get it back. what? the average voter sits and looks at all of this. what does it mean to them? who will offer a better life and a better program? that should be the issue. maybe that will surface in all of this. tom: we have to continue on this with another one hour conversation with robert costa and bob woodward. it is "peril." classic woodward. it opens with general miley. woodward and costa look to the futures of our nations politics. lisa, your thoughts? lisa: the idea policy uncertainty is one of the biggest risks. this is the reason why. the new nature of washington is that much harder to game out. tom: you know there will be a

15th book from bob woodward. we leave you with futures of 18. jon ferro, an important interview on television with lisa shalett. we continue on radio as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: wrapping up a quarter of gains with a month of losses. equity futures, the picture looks like this. we advance one third of 1%.

the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. turning the page on a choppy q3. >> we entered a high volatility regime. >> the fed has said they are changing policy. >> volatility. >> nervousness and volatility. >> people are just closing their eyes and waiting for this to be worked out. >> all of that is temporary, it is not permanent. >> we are setting up which should be a better q4. >>