indications are that we are seeing ran engagement in the economy starts. >> look at consumer expectations, they are not falling. they are rising. >> because of higher cpi you can pass those onto the consumer. >> even though the growth in income may slow, the growth in spending will not slow as much. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: hello, q4. good morning, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. your equity market, -22. off of the highs we are down five. tom: you are right to go to equities first. with that said it is q4. more than ever i am focused on earnings. jonathan: deutsche bank pointing to upside risk for inflation downside risk for growth,

margins, margins, margins. tom: we have to focus, let's do it now as a first touch, on european inflation. perceptions are not the same as in america. 4.1 inflation has a different feel. jonathan: it is a question for policy. how do central banks respond? lisa: how do central banks and fiscal respond? central banks have a conundrum. the supply-side inflation, how do they respond? can they look past it if it is in -- if it is affecting commuter sentiment? what do they do for the demand-side? jonathan: some explaining to do this earnings season, how they manage this storm. tom: when i came in this morning, i get in at 2:00 a.m., or whatever, and getting ready for the weekend, i leaned on bloomberg intelligence, and

that's where they are going. bloomberg intelligence is saying that you have to think about what corporations will do, whether it is the giant stocks, apple, amazon, or something mundane, what do they do given the supply shock moment? jonathan: you got the 2, right. it was 4:32, you were in 2 minutes after me. we are -.5% coming off of the worst since march 2020. we just about squeezed out a quarterly gain, but not much. yields unchanged. the fx market unchanged. we start with a 115 handle on euro-dollar. we start q4 with crude at 74-52. lisa: maybe it is not side fleet and. there is -- sideflexion.

that feels -- sideflation. that feels dramatic. -- personal spending and pce core deflator data. the expectation is for softening. not because the fundamental economy is weakening as much as the federal benefits are rolling off the fiscal cliff that we keep talking about. it plays into the idea of inflation. the expectation is a little softening, but that's only expected to ramp up into year end as we see supply chain issues continuing to bit, and even though people will be spending more though christmas was apparently yesterday. the expectation is for sentiment to stay the lowest since 2011. a lot of it has to do with the inflationary input. manufacturing is expected to be crimped by the input costs.

i'm looking at the vehicle buying conditions, the lowest ever. this leads into the vehicle sales we will be getting throughout the day. the expectation is for a 25% year-over-year decline for august in sales because the supply chain has been disrupted. supply chains are low, costs are high, people don't want to buy. even if they do there is nothing to buy and this exemplifies the tension in a roaring economy that has a lot of cracks. jonathan: she would spend her weekend, today and into the weekend, even if we weren't on air, this is what her morning looks like. focused on this data. lisa: you are right. guilty as charged. jonathan: i know. it was not an accusation, just an observation. , accelerate negative supply dynamics and upgrade to inflation and a downgrade to growth expectations at the same time.

it is clearly negative for wrists asset -- risk assets. tom: the supply shock of brexit versus the union of 1970. the basic idea is that every country for itself. you mentioned the central banks. do they coordinate in this fourth quarter? jonathan: december will be interesting. the line from deutsche bank is clearly a negative for risk assets, upside risks to inflation, downside risk to growth. what is your response? steve: what you are seeing is a tightening of financial conditions that in part is from central banks beginning to move away from easing towards tightening. we priced in a full percentage point rise by the federal reserve by the end of 2023. before now and then the federal reserve. buying bonds gradually into the

middle of next year -- will stop buying bonds gradually into the middle of next year. the two much is being bought part will come down. a good deal of what has happened with this massive shift up in goods demand in the economy has pulled forward growth by several years. those areas will see subsiding spending levels. if we look out a year from now, you will see decelerating inflation, not zero or negative, but decelerating inflation, the acceleration in growth, and tightening monetary policy. markets don't like that when they've gone up 20%, but this is not a new recession, new collapse in the economy, any of those things. a lot of it is a mixture of short-term worries

and specific maturing of a bull market and monetary fiscal policy being pulled away. tom: you're the best economist i know of linking profits into the greater economic equation. how do you link q3, q4, q1 of next year into the greater economy? steve: it will be slower. it is not like the quarter we went through was too bad, 30% growth compared to 80% eps growth will look a little slower. this year global corporate profits are up 35%. if you wanted to know why equities reached an all-time high, that legitimize the rally that began with easing policy. going forward, the next 2 years will be growth, a question about the bite from the corporate tax hike. if it happens it probably will be smaller than we initially

thought for technical reasons, but it will be again in the next few years. that is my forecast. it will be at a slower pace. therefore, we want to move away from some of the industry sectors that were bouncing back sharply. that was a one-time rebound from the crisis lows. lisa: like what? steve: the health care sector has not had a down year. we can measure back to the 1980's for annual periods. it is one way we can get sustained growth at a moderate valuation. we would like to be up in market cap. maybe they will bounce back. all of these things that you said about inflation can help these firms that are the producers, the natural gas producers, oil producers. all of that can help in the short-term. when you look at the year ahead, this is peak industrial activity. not peak level, but peak growth rates. you want to have a less cyclical

portfolio, look at a full year. lisa: yesterday bed, bath & beyond seriously downgraded their forecast and cited unprecedented supply chain challenges. they are not alone. i don't want you to talk about this specific stocks, but broadly, when we see this price behavior would you suggest buying on this dip? steve: this may be a little early for the fimrs suffering through shortages of products they want to sell into the next couple of quarters. the producers of some of these products, the ones with more sustained demand, like the semiconductors have a lot to sell. some may not be the same chip makers. some are making hand sets, some are producing simple products that go into vehicles that will satisfy demand after a year, but

the producer is in a better place. jonathan: good to hear from you. enjoy the weekend, steve. merck's covid-19 antiviral pill reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% in an interim analysis of a late-stage trial. tom: i don't know what to make of it. i have to talk to a pro. 50%? what does that mean? 50 percent you are going to die? i don't know. jonathan: you don't have to go to a hospital, to go to a center to have an infusion, it's a pill that you can take it home. lisa: it's huge because previous remedies or intravenously supplied. what remedies could there be to keep people out of the hospitals and remedy death. it is a another prong to combat

the pandemic. it is a path towards a new normal. jonathan: we will catch up with johns hopkins later this hour to get their thoughts. the s&p 500, the -20 on the s&p down off of the highs. the s&p 500 down five percentage points. the nasdaq down six percentage points. from sector to sector, energy and i.t. on the s&p 500, it is basically about 15 percentage points performance for the last month. incredible. energy outperforming big time. tom: the drawdown is becoming tangible, i won't deny that. but markets on friday show stability.let's see where we are at the close. jonathan: from new york city, good morning, q4. your equity markets are softer by half of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> how democrats went home last

night without voting on the infrastructure bill. house speaker nancy pelosi will try again today. the vote is being held up by a fight between moderate and progressive democrats on the rest of president biden's agenda. progresses will not vote on infrastructure until the president's $4.5 trillion spending bill passes both houses of congress. president biden signed a stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown that keeps funding to government agencies flat until december 3. the bill did not resolve the threat of the u.s. default to the debt limit. treasury secretary janet yellen if congress does not raise the debt ceiling by october 18, the government may not be able to pay its bills. a coban antiviral pill made by merck reduced hospitalization or death by 50% according to analysis of a late stage trial. we will see an emergency use authorization from u.s. regulators. european natural gas prices went

to a record 100 euros after china ordered its own companies to shore supplies for the winter. zoom and call center five9 have scrapped their merger agreement. a steep decline in zoom shares cut the value by one third, leading shareholders to reject the offer and recommend voting against the deal, saying that zoom's prospects have fallen in a post-pandemic environment. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are proceeding in a very positive way to bring up the

bill, to do so in a way that can win, and so far, so good for today. it's going in a positive direction. jonathan: democrats arguing with democrats in d.c. that was nancy pelosi. down by 17 on the s&p 500, off by .4% following a monthly drop through september of 4.7 percentage points. at the start of the equity markets, yields unchanged. the fx market, a lot to discuss, the stronger dollar story that evolved in the last week or so. the euro-dollar, 1.1582. tom: the vix, 21 outweigh 24 level, showing some of the friday tension that we have. she got home in time to see jimmy fallon wrap it up on the tonight show, emily wilkins

joins us from an exhausted washington. i read the articles and will cut to the chase. is there any negotiation and/or compromise? i don't observe it. emily: there is a negotiation. we saw that with senator manchin going to the white house and white house officials shuttling between nancy pelosi and chuck schumer's offices with lawmakers coalescing. we still have a very long way from an agreement on president biden's social spending and tax plan and that is the crux of the problem. aggressive's are refusing nancy pelosi the vote that she needs until the spending package -- they say that it has to pass the house and senate before they vote for the infrastructure package. tom: if joe manchin and the rest have a number that can move around, compromise, negotiate,

where do you observe the good faith of the liberals? emily: at this point there seemed -- they seem to be open to discussion. the $3.5 trillion number, it seems like many in washington acknowledge that's not going to happen at this point. progressives want to make sure that there big priorities are being funded. the same priorities that progressives are pushing for, childcare, eldercare, lower drug pricing, those are things that senator manchin said that he wanted. you are seeing lines of agreement. at this point the devil is in the details. for a bill this big it is going to take time to work through those. senator pelosi is going as fast as she can. the house is coming back today, negotiations will continue, pelosi hinting that there could potentially be a vote, she is

putting the pressure on members. from what we are hearing from joe manchin. lisa: who is the better potential swing vote for nancy pelosi? those progressive democrats or moderate republicans that will have to face constituents who want to see infrastructure spending? emily: that is a great question. we are expecting both. some progressives to go along with the infrastructure vote, and a number of republicans go along as well. the question is, will there be enough votes at this point? it seems like there are far more progressives voting no then republicans voting yes. i've heard from lawmakers about how great nancy pelosi is about counting the votes and how she will not bring a bill to the floor that's going to fail. at this point speaker pelosi doesn't have the votes.

that is why we did not see a vote last night. it will be a long day of negotiating and arm twisting and putting pressure on people, but it's not clear that we will get a vote today. lisa: can you put this into perspective of the midterm elections, where liabilities live for potential constituents, republicans or democrats, who fail to get anything done? if there's not a plan passed for political reasons? emily: i spoke to a lawmaker from pennsylvania who is facing a challenging reelection. they said if democrats don't get this done, they will be the minority in the house. they will lose the midterm. this is something democrats are banking on. you talk to the ones facing the toughest reelections, and they say that this needs to get done. not just infrastructure, social spending, but all of it. democrats know this is imperative to them winning. they need to go home and say they delivered for their constituents. similar for the republicans.

the ones facing the toughest races are the ones likely to be supporting the infrastructure package. tom: do they risk losing the senate? emily: the senate is a great question. we are looking at how that math is playing out, who is running and the strength of the candidates. you have a 50-50 senate. that means democrats have to be diligent about what they are doing and how they are messaging. it only takes republicans winning one more seat and democrats are in the minority. tom: you are such a student of history. are these liberals like hhh? liberals of a different cut of the cloth then hubert humphrey of long ago and far away? emily: i think the liberals today, you are seeing both parties go further to the extremes. more members of the far right be elected and more members of the far left be elected. members, the squad, got bigger

and they are holding the feet to the fire. progressives spent all last year being told, you need to hold back on your priorities. we need to make sure we are having the moderates win their swing districts. progressives are done waiting. they're worried they will lose the house in 2022, because that is what historical trends say will happen. they say we need to get this done now. even if we lose the house we have delivered something for our constituents. jonathan: thank you. lisa, is it everything or nothing for this party? lisa: that seems to be where the tenor of the negotiations are. the reason that i asked about republicans, is why aren't they signing onto the $550 billion plan if it will look good for them in the midterm elections? do they believe that the add-on will be hinged to it? here is the question.

what is the bigger political risk for them? the idea of not allowing them to implode or not getting anything done for less torn districts who want to see bridges, roads, and infrastructure spending? jonathan: as is often the way, you allow the other party to implode? tom: yes, silence is golden for the republicans. we have seen that from the senato from kentucky and in the house where the republicans are pretty much invisible. do you start thinking about minority leader steny hoyer? jonathan: they put down futures beneath you. [laughter] tom: what is great on twitter is to some people listening i am to the right of attila the hun and to others i am left of a commie.

jonathan: keep trying, tom. -19. on radio and tv at the start of q4, good morning to all. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: it's a negative date of q4. good morning, equity futures down one fourth of -- for tens of 1%. off the highs of the previous month, we are down about 5% on the s&p and 6% on the nasdaq. the bond market yields higher by 18 basis points, the biggest move since march. march we had a 33 basis point move and we topped out for the year. 1.4875, yields unchanged. north of 2% on the 30 year and deutsche bank nailed -- mailed it again. it boils -- nailed it again. it boils down to two things with

the dollar, upside risk to inflation, downside risk to growth. for the u.s. dollar, that is clearly a positive and a negative for risk assets. we are softer today but we've had a five percentage point move off of may and since september you've seen the strength come back. tom: the consolidation where jon seems to work out, take the dollar back to 10 year yield so it would consolidate up. i will look at the bull case which is tangible. this is carrying dr pepper, a $12 billion revenue company. they will get up to $13 billion and what is so important in the gloom as they dropped down to a 33% ebitda margin so they are persistently minting money and they go with a $4 billion buyback. we will see tons of this in the coming days, nothing else to do.

speaking of gloom, that means washington. andy blocker joins us now. i love what you say, we've seen this movie before. i'm not sure i believe it. is the negotiation or compromise we see this movie before? andy: generally speaking, yes, but in specific, it's uncertain. we get the government open, hooray. we are going to be open through december 3. this bipartisan bill, there is a tension between the moderates and liberals in the democratic party and the question is, will they hang together or separately? tom: give us the historic precedent, what do they do? i don't believe there's any negotiation going on. they are just getting the deadlines and away we go. do you perceive true negotiation in a fractious democratic party?

andy: i do. this was part of the sausage making process of washington that has not changed and political interests are aligned. they need to help president biden. he needs a win. he's been taking on water since the summit because of the delta variant surge and difficulty in afghanistan. without him raising his political standing and showing he can get something done in a bipartisan way, he's really going to have a tough time, and so will democrats. lisa: we are hearing reports of nancy pelosi on the halls of congress on her phone nonstop morning and night. there is a new feeling of concern among democratic leaders wrangling their party together. when you talk to people, is this a new level of concern that they cannot get anything done? andy: it is heightened, i will say that. two things are different. number one, normally what

happens is whether it is the republican or democratic party, the more conservatives in the republican party the more liberals in the democratic party will roll the moderates and say, just take the hit. the moderates are standing up and saying, i don't want to take a difficult vote in the house i know the senate will not vote for, so this creates the tension where they take vote in the house, suck it up, but the senate comes back and moves it back. moderates are saying, like we've seen in the past, 1993 with the btu pass -- tax taking the tough vote, they knew the senate wasn't going to vote on it and she lost her race. we've seen that happen many times and so that's going to be the crux, moderates holding the line, liberals who are being very bold in saying, i am going to take down this entire an

agenda unless i get what i want. lisa: people are saying it is driven by peak recovery and slow growth, and policy uncertainty and the fear that we could head to some sort of default or disruption, and a lack of fiscal spending. given that you are at the intersection of market and government affairs, what's the biggest concern you hear internally in terms of policy uncertainty? is it them getting something done that's too big, not getting something done, or a default? andy: a month ago, i would have put default higher up because republicans made it clear they worked on a dual bipartisan deal that puts the onus on democrats. now that democrats know, i've seen some comments from members of the house saying, we are going to go through this dog and pony show and try to force republicans to vote but the end of the day, they will have to do

it on their own. that will be off the table by mid-october. the bigger issue is how big is this fisher within the -- fisher within the democratic -- fis sure within the democratic party? tom: you are being way too kind. you are in the beltway drinking the kool-aid. are the liberals of the democratic party handing the republicans majorities in the senate and the house? andy: if they take the bipartisan infrastructure bill, yes -- tank the bipartisan infrastructure bill, yes. lisa: what are you watching in terms of deadlines with respect to getting something done? it seems like the progressive wing is pretty entrenched and nancy pelosi will not get republicans on her side. andy: i don't think republicans

will lend a helping hand. democrats will have to show whether it is today or a week from now but they have the votes to get the bipartisan infrastructure bill on their own. once they show that vote, usually comes the republican run to vote for this, but they will not be the deciding vote to put the democrats over the top. the question is, can nancy pelosi corral the democrats and say, we are going to vote on this thing today, trust we will get your reconciliation package with all the goodies that you want, and that's for today. tom: andy, we appreciate your -- jonathan: andy, we appreciate your insight, andy blocker. a story dropping from the dow jones, comfortable with imminent taper decision, goes on to say doesn't see the need for a fed rate hike until 2024. until 2024.

the chairman has made a great effort to try to divide a decision on tapering from an interest rate hike but some people agree it will happen between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. neel kashkari, 2024. tom: he also looks at labor with let's call him dovish. you look at the x axis and out there, it ends up being about inflation-adjusted. inflation-adjusted 10 year yield, reminding us of your performance this afternoon on "real yelps," guests -- "real yield," with guests better than on the show. the idea of what the real wages, the inflation-adjusted wage, how the day raise rates -- how do they raise rates into a negative -- jonathan: not a base case, but

it's the risk we can discuss. will this federal reserve be overwhelmed by inflation before they achieve their goals on output and employment? lisa: that's why neel kashkari, a polarizing figure, actually has it somewhat right when trying to parse out the rate hike as being completely different from tapering. what if they take some of the weight out of the market that's propping up asset prices, including housing prices, that contribute to inflationary impulses, and also keep conditions very easy? can they do that or is that impossible? jonathan: fed speak again today, kashkari just one of them. you will get some fed talk. equity market down 19. we are in the blackout period. yields unchanged, 1.4910 on the u.s. 10 year. euro-dollar not doing much.

i love that line -- "corporate america has some explaining to do this quarter." this story is so well-known and well talked about. how well priced is it? bed, bath & beyond cratering a solid 20% and you wonder maybe it is not. tom: they are in the sweet spot of it. are you going to extrapolate that to huge cash producing things? far be it for me to say yes or no. lisa: it did with chip suppliers. semiconductors have been doing pretty poorly over the last couple of days because of this, so you wonder how widespread some of these supply chain disruptions are. i think about the fact that a lot of it isn't priced in although a lot of it is. over 20% of the nasdaq 100 is down 20% or more from its peak. this selloff has been concentrated on specific, more than half of s&p stocks down by

10%. this has been a significant selloff in specific stocks. jonathan: apple is one of them, down 9.7%. down almost 10% on a big-name. tom: some of those, no question about it i defer to the sell side of bloomberg intelligence about what will go. where is -- until block -- dan ives -- mental block -- dan ives? a thousand bucks a share. jonathan: the price target when we come back. merck is bullish it's antiviral drug and we discover that next with andrew pekosz. from new york city, good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: what the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. nancy pelosi will try to get a vote on the infrastructure bill that's been held up between a fight between moderate and

progressive democrats over the economic agenda. progressives have vowed to stall the infrastructure bill if the house does not move on a spending package worth as much as $3.5 trillion. one out of four companies imposed a vaccine mandate for u.s. workers, a sharp increase from last month, and 13% plan to put a mandate in place, after president biden's directive requiring employees to require shots or testing. this is affecting about 400 companies. in the eurozone area, prices rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in september. the core rate which takes out volatile components, increased 1.9%, a rate not seen since 2008. a vote whether to split off the truck division from mercedes-benz luxury car

offering, a move that could boost the of both units. it is moving into specific trends like battery power and autonomous driving. carrying dr. pepper has approved a share buyback program. the company was formed in 2018 through the merger of curing coffee brewers -- keurig coffee brewers and the makers of dr pepper. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> increasingly we are hearing a story about enacting a mandate,

then a few people will leave in protest, but by and large, it seems to boost uptake among the employees and i can understand why employers are doing this, because that's what they need to do to operate safely and have their customers feel safe. jonathan: jennifer needs out -- jennifer nuzzo with johns hopkins. your equity markets shaping up as follows. we are -19, down 4/10 of 1%. adding to the losses of september and september was pretty rough, down the most since march 2020, down almost 5%. yields unchanged on tens, 1.4892. euro-dollar unchanged. news out of merck, they are developing a covid-19 antiviral pill that reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% in an interim analysis of a late

stage trial. some decent news. tom: i'm lost. let's go to an adult. andrew pekosz joins us. let me cut to the chase. when i see a scientific statistic that is 50/50 i'm not going to die from a pill, i'm not sure that's science. what is the efficacious nature of any form of medicine where i get a 50% outcome? andrew: it can be incredibly important, particularly thinking about populations that are vulnerable and may have a high likelihood of having disease. that's where antivirals really start. they are another tool in the arsenal to fight back severe covid-19. taking it early -- and this is the critical thing -- you have to identify this early and targeting antivirals to vulnerable populations makes a lot of sense if you are over 65

and have a medical condition that predisposes you to severe covid-19. if you get that positive covid-19 test, you want to start getting an antiviral right away to change the course of the disease. lisa: it is interesting to me, the idea of keeping people out of the hospital. a 50% chance of keeping people out of hospital and reducing death. how much is the fight against covid a fight to keep people out of the hospital so you don't have the strain on the system and you can treat this like the common cold? andrew: that is the first and most important goal, protect lives, present -- prevent disease. we don't want to stress the health care system where we have these ripple effects with covid-19 outbreaks that stress the hospital system, other diseases, people coming in for other types of care, suffer because hospital resources are strained so thin.

so you want to keep people out of the hospital. you want to reduce disease severity and if you can reduce the number of cases and transmission, you've got extra benefit in terms of controlling the disease. lisa: to tom's point, this 50% idea, it is not a sure thing. what would be? what i you looking for in terms of a treatment that we've not seen that could be a game changer? andrew: right now, antivirals with 50% efficacy add one more layer to your protection. if you go out and get the vaccine, practice social distancing in high-risk situations, and you now have an antiviral, you have three levels of protection which cumulatively will reduce the number of severe cases in an exponential way, then anyone of them individually. that's the first thing to think about. antivirals are a little bit difficult because the earlier you treat, the better off it

will be, and with asymptomatic infections and symptoms sometimes progressing quickly, the timing can be hard to get a high efficacy, but it is a tool in the arsenal and added together with the other things we have, can help control severe disease. tom: we see a lot of mask wearing in places where the mat -- where the vaccination rate is 84% and 88%, maybe up to 90%. in america, is the wearing of masks in a high vaccinated area good science or is it emotion? andrew: i think it doesn't hurt. what's important to know is what your infection rate is in that part of the country. vaccination rates are great. it is really about exposure to virus and if you are in a part of the country where high numbers of cases are occurring in unvaccinated people, your

potential to be exposed is higher and therefore having something else in place besides the vaccine to protect you is a good thing to do. mask wearing in and of itself has to be combined with other things to be effective. tom: i look at this into the weekend and i see in the united kingdom, they are talking about flu season and the idea of a flu shot literally being taken at the same time as a booster shot or a vaccination. how does your work on covid overlay on the flu season? andrew: two years ago, my laboratory was completely focused on influenza and dealing with that. this year, we are gearing up again to monitor for influenza because all signs early indicate the flu will probably come back this year. because we've seen few cases, few infections, we expect to see a burst of flu especially in

children who have the least amount of immunity to influenza. we are gearing up to test for that as well. lisa: i always notice the virus that is behind your shoulder. have you switched it from covid to flu? andrew: they are right next to each other because both of those things will be important to remind people about, respiratory viruses in general because a huge amount of disease in a population, and both of those vaccines are ways to control that. jonathan: andy, thank you. good luck for the weekend. johns hopkins, bloomberg school of public health professor. he supports the other team in north london. i like how personal you make these conversations with johns hopkins. you put on a mask and it frustrates you when you are in a room of 95% vaccinated people. tom: in france, they say if you have a high area of covid wear a

mask in school and if you don't, you don't. the dovetail here of science and antiscience is real. you mentioned arsenal. this is a huge sports weekend. sunday night, tom brady and the patriots go at it. jonathan: tom hooper? who's tom -- tom who? who's tom? tom: what are you watching? jonathan: liverpool-man city. equity futures down 17 on the s&p. i like tom brady. why does everybody hate him? lisa: he is successful and good-looking. jonathan: i thought we love to in america? don't like success anymore? lisa: a lot of people like tom brady, but he has a polarizing figure. jonathan: i should have known, looking at washington. growing up, tk, it was all about aspiring to be successful.

tom: do i sense a sermon coming on? jonathan: we've only got 15 seconds. tom: there's -- jonathan: q4 -- here comes the hate mail. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> the fed is clearly in control. the buy yield should go up. >> the demand is there. the indications as we are seeing the re-engagement in the economy start. >> expectations are rising. >> because of higher cpi, you can pass those on to the consumer. >> even though the growth and income may slow, the growth in spending will not slow as much. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: new quarter, same problems. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv. your equity market -14 off the lows, down one third of 1%. goodbye, q3, tk. tom: we have to line up the ducks for the fourth