♪ >> what the fed does is essential. >> i think it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> appointment is important for market, it is earnings. >> you have to worry about the service sector and those connected to travel and leisure. >> it is hard to understand where we are in the cycle. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city and worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. up one third on the s&p. the damage done to the nasdaq, remarkable. tom: let's look at big tech.

pepsico was an organic revenue lift. i wonder if that is what we are going to see away from technology. with christopher marangi coming up we are going to get a feel for what the revenue spirit will be. jonathan: i will speak to the cfo in a couple hours time. apple down 11%. if you had to take your pick, earnings on the 13, what would you be looking for? tom: i would be looking for jp morgan to say, businesses out there, they are adapting. maybe you see cost-cutting at the bank. they are always talking about that. you are going to get tack and i will watch the revenue line. bloomberg intelligence is brilliant on counting new iphones. the abramowitz house is going to go iphone. jonathan: lisa, where do you

want to be? lisa: in tom keene's house were even his dog has an iphone. tom: that's right. lisa: that is not my home unfortunately. are we seeing peak supply chain disruption? is that what we saw? the amazons, apples, facebooks, are being affected by this outage. is this the turning point or have we just seen the beginning? to me, there is a lot of disagreement. jonathan: i love when we are on the same page. we talked about this so much. how well christ is it now -- priced is it now? lisa: the fact that pepsico did not move up in premarket trading, i don't understand the response function. the more refined out the more confusing it becomes. jonathan: thank you. we advanced by one third of 1%. yields are shifting higher

trying to reclaim 150 but over the last week we have been stable. tom: 150. jonathan: let me finish, tom. little one, -2/10 of 1%. this move in crude, $78.30. tom: crude looking -- there it is. brent crude, is it jumping? no. it is a grind. jonathan: seeming every day of the moment we are up another 1%. lisa: to me, this is the story the past few weeks. bonds sold off, stocks sold off. what has done well? oil. how much does this speak to inflation versus the s word? what i am looking for today we are getting the trade balance in the united states.

it is fascinating considering it is record high in terms of the deficit, record low in terms of what we are exporting versus importing. i think it is compelling to look at that and compelling to look at the services data, the frictions in the labor market will continue to bleed and soften this figure. at 10:00 we hear the facebook whistleblower speaking about how the platform had research that showed it was harmful for individuals, particularly children. let's see what they can do that. facebook shares were down harshly yesterday. however, up 50% year today. today is the first day of the invest summit. i'm interested to hear how some of these speakers parse out the differential between bonds and stocks. what is the balance in your portfolio when both selloffs? we are going to hear from greg

jensen, aerial investments, and john rogers. jonathan: looking forward to that. lisa abramowicz going through the day ahead. joining as his chris marangi, gameco ceo. it feels like q1 but it is not. what is the difference for you right now? chris: i think expectations for nominal gdp growth for something like 10%. they are still 10% but the mix is different. we see supply chain issues crimp real growth and those persist and probably worsen. tom: i have been dying to speak to you to know what you think about the gloom on revenues and margin compression. i want to know what you guys think we are going to see on revenues. are they better than good? chris: i am not worried about revenue. there is plenty of demand across

the board. the issue is, can that demand be fulfilled? we talked about it ad naseum, that has caused market compression. -- ad nauseum, that has caused market compression. how persistent will those margin pressures be? are we at new levels for labor costs under national resource inputs? i think the answer is yes. once you raise wages it is hard to take them back. over the next few years you will see large pressure in the market. lisa: what is priced in? is it peak supply chain disruption or are people worried this is just the beginning? chris: when you think about being priced in it is usually not. but the move over the last month

or so has been in a number of companies morning about what q3 is going to look like, saying they will be at the low end. i think we are going to see more of that through earnings season. some is priced in but not all of it is. jonathan: i want to talk about the banks briefly. what do you want to see in the financials, the characteristics of those names? where do you want to be? chris: banks performed well early this year in part because there was an expectation and that is generally good for borrow short, lend long. but they were conduits for reopening and for more consumer spending. i think that has been muted a little bit. in the financials area we are looking for companies that tend to be the credit card companies, american express, which is a

beneficiary of increased spend. that is generally where we have been and where we want to be going forward. tom: i have got to ask about autos. that is where mario began as a security analyst. i have got to ask about the people going after general motors trying to find value. in hedge funds, can private capital even with small amounts of percentage ownership, can they go after industrial america? chris: absolutely. gm found new life as an esg play. import because of their commitment to electrification. mary has been vocal about that and it is for real. they really are investing in products to compete with tesla and others and i think they are going to be successful.

it will never escape it cyclical nature but the cycle is in favor the next five years. lisa: esg considerations are a factor in what you put into -- which companies are attractive, which could attract esg funds based on what their footprint is? chris: i don't think there is any question companies with good esg reputations, good esg scores have attracted capital. in many cases have garnered valuation premiums. we look for those but generally have some clients and funds that are sustainability and esg focused and there are certain requirements that have to be met. gm, believe it or not even though it is reliant, it fits that. jonathan: where you're going to leave it there. chris marangi of gamco, co-cio. we heard this from target, adding 30,000 positions to its u.s. supply chain facility.

hiring 100,000 seasonal staff members ahead of the holidays. tom: where they going to get them? jonathan: they have got to pay up haven't they? tom: they have got to pay up. i have seen things in the zeitgeist. wages have to go up. jonathan: what did we hear from bank of america last week? christmas in september? [laughter] tom making the right point. you want to boost staff members, ok. can you find them? lisa: indeed.com actually said there is a huge surge in emergency staff needed being posted on their website and frankly, there is that fewer people taking those jobs. just to give you a sense of how big the gap is. jonathan: i think that 30k k number has been said before but here it is again, adding 30,000 in the u.s., hundred thousand overall. tom: you are in easton

pennsylvania, great. you need thousands of people from philadelphia. there is an amazon warehouse, target warehouse, and they are all competing. jonathan: for hundred 90,000, let's talk about that. 490,000, let's talk about that. are you saying it is a reflection of supply? tom: i think it is movable. negative real wage but do we finally get nominal wage growth given the announcements you mentioned? jonathan: payroll coming up this friday. from new york city futures positive. heard on radio, seen on tv for our audience worldwide this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> johnson & johnson asked u.s. regulators to approve a second dose of its coronavirus vaccine

as a booster for adults. a late stage trial found a second shot of his one-shot vaccine is 94% protective. it could give millions more americans additional protection against the coronavirus. facebook blames a global service outage on a problem with its network configuration. it took facebook, whatsapp, instagramming messenger services off-line for hours that more than 2.7 billion people rely on to communicate, do businesses and consume news. the facebook will so blow or will share what she calls the frightening truth with the senate committee today. claims that they misled the public about harmful effects of the platform. democrats may have to live with

a less generous expansion. president biden conceded that lawmakers may have to scale back the cost of his abenomics agenda to about $2 trillion. that will cut all tax credits. j.p. morgan chase is rolling out new measures, banning business travel and one-on-one meetings from employees not vaccinated or will not disclose whether they have had the shot. on vaccinated employees will face higher payroll deductions to cover the cost of testing and health insurance. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more then 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am really could gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. biden: in congress, what they are doing today is so

reckless and dangerous in my view. as soon as this week the savings in your pocketbook could be directly impacted by this republican stunt. jonathan: the president of the united states. from new york city, good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. we bounce back by 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. 80 euro-dollar -2/10 of 1%. tom: 1% move. [laughter] jonathan: i cannot take you seriously with your red socks. tom: this is bigger than the socks. a global audience says, what is the big deal? peter gamin's talking about the

calvinism there from stockbridge to boston. let's look at red sox baseball. this is in the time of ted williams. for those on radio it is calvin in bed after the homerun in 1978. and the problem we have is yankee fans shopping for a fancy yankee paraphernalia. jonathan: goodness sake. is that an official new york yankees ralph lauren? tom: you can be sure the gentleman from brooklyn is a yankees fan as well. john, spirit of the moment and fun for everyone. jonathan: it is. there is a reason annmarie has not come back. she feels like she has been trolled by you. [laughter] tom: get a detroit tigers fan

acting nice today. jonathan: president biden is blaming republicans. others are saying he is right. frame us what is going on in d.c. at the moment. lisa: this is a standoff between democrats and republicans and if you want to get into the nuance, either party could have kept you from getting here. democrats could have added the debt ceiling increase to the budget reconciliation process they are working through right now. republicans could be going along with the vote today. it would only take 10 republicans and we could have this done by the end of today. neither of those things -- one has not happened and the other is not going to happen. president biden up to the anti-yesterday coming up in this -- ante yesterday coming up in this and laid this at the feet of mitch mcconnell.

mitch mcconnell, who have been watching him for a while. this man does not yield to pressure. there is a standoff in question marks about what is going to happen between now and october 18. lisa: they shrugged their shoulders and we are not worried. what they are worried about is the uncertainty on the federal reserve. there was no doubt this morning by data trek that uncertainty is bad. what is the feeling down on capitol hill in terms of the likelihood of chair powell's renomination? emily: if poseidon biden was to nominate powell again for a second term -- if president

biden was to nominate powell again for a second term, they said he would support him. elizabeth warren said he would she would not be able to back him but i think the question is will or won't he nominate powell again for the role? bloomberg reported he has people like treasury secretary janet yellen suggested he get a second term. but that is a big question right now. i think people in washington are paying attention to powell, they are paying attention to these allegations of trading misuse from senior officials within the u.s. central-bank system, but right now the focus in d.c.'s on the debt limit, infrastructure, reconciliation. those of the top line things and everything else is in the background. tom: nicely laid out. emily, what is the to do list of the moderates this week? emily: moderates are going to be

speaking with president biden this morning. biden had that virtual meeting with progresses yesterday and now meeting with the moderates trying to figure out how to trim down that $3.5 trillion spending plan to around $2 trillion. that is part of the ongoing discussion about what this will look like. moderates have said the same thing over and over again. what they really wanted was infrastructure to pass without being tied to the larger social spending plan but biden said, that's not going to happen. i think democrats really know they want to get this legislation done, both pieces. another thing to watch -- we are tired of hearing these names -- joe manchin and kyrsten sinema, are they going to be satisfied with the proposal president biden is hammering out right now i what the size of the bill is going to be? tom: two senators. do the house manchins and house

moderates have power right now? emily: absolutely. it only takes three house members to stand up and say, hey, we are not supportive of this to put a bill in jeopardy. i think what you are seeing now, what is different than the negotiations we have been talking about, is how active the biden administration is. the president is meeting with lawmakers, having these discussions, that was not happening in september. that until the very end. the fact that biden is getting involved says something because remember, this was his plan. this is what he pitched to the nation in april and we are seeing him take an active role in shoving it through and trying to keep his party united while he does so. jonathan: emily wilkins down in d.c., bloomberg government reporter. the biggest question about tonight is whether tk we'll be asleep by the time the sox bring in their first reliever.

[laughter] tom: unfortunately, that is an accurate statement because what we do here is every pitcher is ready to go. but you have got to believe the moment someone falters, out they go. jonathan: can somebody bring me a yankees cap? wind is the store open? over in midtown. lisa: do you care about the yankees or want to take him off? jonathan: i am all about balance. [laughter] red sox cap on air we need to have a yankees cap on air. tom keene in the red sox cap this morning. along tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 16 on the s&p. tom: how are they going to do against fc? jonathan: we are going to win. tom: you are going to be so hung over. jonathan: you sure?

tom: i am not sure. jonathan: i can double check that. [laughter] dear me. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: i know there are die had fans. it is in two weeks. [laughter] i try to be accurate sometimes. that is what google taught me. price action looks like this. good morning. futures positive half of 1%. nasdaq up half of 1%. we talked about the individual stock damage. let's talk about sector performance. the last 30 days, give me a picture of that. information and technology down seven percentage points. energy at the top up 14%. financials, banks are in positive territory but look at financials. dead flat.

for people to say the smells like q1, it is not. in q1 we are talking rallying energy prices, higher prices as a consequence of better growth, accelerating growth expectations. it was different. q3 into q4 is different. higher energy prices but not consequences of better growth but hurting growth expectations. if you get higher yields in that environment, what does it do for bank financials? that is what i want to think about a little more. it smells like q1, it is not q1. how will banks perform? yields higher this morning by two basis points. i think that is the conversation we have got to have. tom: i agree economics is different but the bulls are going to buy the dip. jonathan: how has that worked

out the last couple of weeks? tom: these are modest percentage changes. jonathan: it worked out beautifully the last 10 years. i am with you. tom: i will bring it up to look at it. apple on a deviation basis, i do not think it is the end of the world. jonathan: down 11%. tom: it is apple, they are supposed to go down. jonathan: amazon and facebook down 15%. it is a sizable move. i get it. let's talk about the individual stock level paying for these names. here is romaine bostick. romaine: there are people who will miss the moves and say, this is a dip buy in opportunity. nasdaq down 8% from the all-time high in early september and talking about a market that is oversold. you're starting to see -- i guess this is dip buying -- although tesla was one of the

few tech adjacent stocks that survived yesterday's selloff and facebook up 1%. when you look broad-based across these businesses this has been in correction territory. there talking more than a quarter of the nasdaq 100 down more than 10% from all-time high. when you look at the s&p 500, 293 members are down 10% or more from that all-time high or from those 52 we got for individual names including apple, amazon, intel, citigroup, walmart. it is a large group. the question is, is this the threshold where you come back in or is this a major reevaluation of these valuations? with facebook this goes much broader than what we are talking about with the seller. there's a hearing going on today without whistleblower. you had the outage from yesterday. it will be interesting to see whether 15% drawdown we are seeing can actually bring it back up anywhere close to where it was a couple of days ago.

couple of other individual stories moving the market, j&j higher. they will submit approval for a booster shot. alberts down 4%, downgrade at bmo, and marathon digital, bitcoin hovering around 50,000. tom: thank you so much. right now, hugely anticipated we speak with george saravelos of deutsche bank. he has the toughest job. peter huber, matt lizaetti are churning away and george has to figure out the economic dynamics and what it means in foreign-exchange. he joins us this morning. what is your dollar call? george: great to see you, tom. i think the risks are using

moderately stronger dollar until the end of the year. there is much more going on in the market than just the inflation story which is dominated this year. i was following with interest the interview you had with mohammed after the u.s. numbers last week and he was focused on the inflation upside. but at the same time you have big downside growth to those numbers. i think there are three things going on in this last quarter of the year. number one, we are getting pessimistic messages on the supply side of the global economy. one of my favorite examples is if you look at u.k. total hours worked, it is 8% below where it was pre-covid. we are talking rate hikes in the u.k. the consumer is not gangbusters. this is not the same as q1. we can see it in the confidence. the slow down and spending was happening before the wave and you are not seeing the drawdown in excess saving.

weaker growth dynamic with higher inflation, the margin is supportive of the dollar. tom: let's go there. on sterling, how do you express that view on sterling? if it is not cable, which pair is the most intelligent tradable pair for sterling? george: the u.k. is a fascinating example. it is at the epicenter of what is going on where you are about to have i think a sharp slowing in growth because you have fiscal tightening at the same time. this is very different to the demand cycles we are used to experiencing and i think the risk is easy u.k. inflows slow down, the growth side decelerate, and that will be negative for the pound. the polar opposite story is places like norway. essentially what you will see this quarter is a direct income transfer from the u.k. consumer to the norwegian consumer which benefits from this big crises.

we like selling the pound against all right but also against the swiss franc. my colleagues have done well showing how that is one of the best safe havens in a world of rising inflation. jonathan: what are the lessons from trading in g10 right now? are they applicable? george: it is an interesting question and i think most immediately relevant to the u.k. you have this environment in the end were central banks try to hike rates but the currency stays weak because you cannot see those inflows. em historically has been more vulnerable to supply shocks. i think it is very interesting. at the start of the year if i told you the bank of england could be hiking rates as soon as this year, you would've told me the pound would be surging. instead it is struggling. this transmission channel which normally a bank hike does to push inflation down is not

working in the u.k. and that asks all sorts of uncomfortable questions for the bank of england. lisa: before we let you go we have to deal with the s word because you did write it in a recent report. this is definitively stagflationary. how much hate mail did you get for using that word? george: it is interesting. we have a lot of internal debates within research. there are different definitions of that word but for me the key point is not how you define the world but the trajectory in inflation and growth. one thing i think that has not materialized for those that have been espousing the gangbusters narrative is you really have not seen growth rate the second half of the year. you are seeing deceleration so it is a different playbook compared to the first half. jonathan: do you think the s word is a distraction? the fact we have to talk about it because it is so easy to turn around and say that is not what this is. george: again, i think --

jonathan: do think that is where we are heading? george: i think debating definitions is not as useful as observing you are seeing a sharp slowdown and not just because of the supply side, it is because the consumer is underwhelming. in terms of direction of travel, yes, i worry. we have slow down coming in the pipeline because of china, fiscal tightening in the u.k. and u.s. our rate this may continue to worsen. jonathan: really smart note. great to catch up. thank you for coming on the show. george saravelos, deutsche bank, head of fx research. talking higher prices hurting growth. not growth leading to higher prices and that is a subtle difference for the market as well. for currencies like sterling and the u.k. tom: this is what the show is about. credit suisse flat-out disagrees. this is what we do every day

where you have got a shop taking a stake on some form of stagflation versus one that is not. jonathan: i think that is why the word, from my perspective, is unhelpful. it may not be stagflation in the sense it is more stagnant. we can deal with that. but that does not mean the environment we are in is a good one and that is the debate we need to have. to what degree wealth inflation expectations rise or persistent next year? tom: this is a critical issue and goes down to phrases like, potential gdp, terminal value of the economy. i will be honest, there is a wide cross-section of people we speak to see that path going down to something that is politically unacceptable. jonathan: with a decent understanding, based on the price action, if you are a g10 currency like sterling, if you have to hike because of price pressures and not growth, it is negative for the currency. tom: not good.

jonathan: apply that to the u.s. dollar. i would be interesting to see -- interested to see the back half of next year that this was not because of growth levels. lisa: this is a big if first of all, but you race the important point. how does a central bank respond to this dynamic? you can call this the s word, stagflation, distracting but this dynamic creates a perilous path for central banks. jonathan: i should clarify if they hike interest rates because of inflation before they achieve employment goals. that could be interesting. euro-dollar $1.16. any commodity market -- it is all about crude -- $78.41. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with first word news i am ritika gupta. after the outage yesterday sent

facebook falling, it blames it on a problem with the network configuration. it took down core social networks and instagram as well as what's at and messenger service. chuck schumer plans a vote this week on legislation to suspend the debt ceiling but republicans vowed to block it. that raises questions on whether congress can avoid default later. mitch mcconnell says democrats can do it on their own by using the reconciliation process which would require a simple majority vote in the senate. federal reserve's internal watchdog will open an investigation by senior central bank officials. follows revelations about transactions and 2020. bloomberg reported the vice president traded as much as $5 million out of the bond fund into stock funds one day before jerome powell issued a statement of possible policy action. options for preventing coronavirus action going beyond

vaccination. astrazeneca asked u.s. regulators for emergency approval for its covid antibody cocktail. it has 77% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic covid, including patients with high risk factors. pepsico raised sales on rising appetite for his beverages. rising 8% on any granite races -- on an organic basis. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more then 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we don't have price stability. inflation of 5% is amongst the

highest many of us remember in their lifetime. that is a big bet. jonathan: that was ken griffin, citadel ceo and founder. good morning. tom lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. equity market up 20. it is a bit of a bounce on equities and yields up two basis points. crude advancing again. just this continuous grind. $78.45 bearing down to $79. that is the crude move. tom: he is fired up. jonathan: here is the message. if you are early in your career, you are making a grave mistake not being back at work. loud and clear. tom: we have heard this from a number of people and to me, it is almost silo to silo with

goldman sachs or digital. they are making it up day by day as they go based on what they hear from employees. i put out a chart on brent crude which shows a trend starting in january of this year and it has been very sustainable. the phrase i would use is it is elegant. jonathan: it is higher and positive this morning. tom: always an elegant chart. dave wilson, what do you have today? dave: putting the two together and figuring it is looking like the next stage of economic reopening is being anticipated. consider in the past four weeks or so we have seen the ratio between the s&p 500 financials and broader s&p 500 up 5.7% and the 10 year yields rising as well as much as 2/10 of 1%. tom: they linked together.

dave: something like that. [laughter] that is how it is playing out in lpl's view. it is noteworthy in terms of where stocks may be headed at this point. tom: what else do you see in this research? dave: that is the key. it is really about looking ahead and being positive. ryan dietrich, their senior market strategist, man, he definitely takes a positive view of stocks looking back in history. what he is seeing in the financial shares reinforces that idea in the context of where we are relative to the virus. tom: going to leave it there today with dave wilson. cameron joins us now. what are you writing about this

morning? cameron: good question. we are at an interesting juncture because you have seen the ndf's with an all-time high one month ago and fallen 7% since then which seems like quite a lot. you are taught as a trader that you need to manage risk but the thing is we have seen these sorts of declines before. what i'm trying to grapple with is the fine line between risk management on the one hand and overtrading on the other. you kind of know in retrospect whether you are right to cut risk or write to let things run. but it is not always obvious in real time. lisa: is there an obvious explanation for why big tech underperformed the past month? cameron: well, that is what you would expect in a context where markets are pricing around

higher interest rates. big tech is famously trading like an infinite maturity bond and one thing you don't want to own if you are worried about inflation and when market rates are rising is infinite maturity bonds. lisa: one concern people have is the portfolio has done poorly. the idea you have 7% drawdown in the nasdaq, 5% in the s&p over 30 days, to percent decline in overall index of treasuries. how much does this trigger selling and some of these market neutral strategies that have been leveraged the past couple of years? cameron: it obviously depends on the strategy. any strategy that targets specific level of volatility will be reducing risk because volatility has become elevated. if you are targeting a portfolio with a 10% risk and the amplitude of the moves you see in the marketplace suddenly mean you have a 15% risk, you need to

cut your nominal position size to get back to 10%. that turns virtuous again once volatility calms down and you add nominal exposure back. but it seems fairly clear at the moment we are in the vicious portion of that cycle. tom: what part of the street -- unfair question but it is unfair tuesday -- what part of the street is most overexposed? what is the bet that is all in? cameron: oh man,. that is a tough question. tom: tough question. cameron: i would like to say crypto but i am scared of the hate mail i will get. i don't know. i think there are loads of people banking on the technology trade.

you expect the sun to rise in the east tomorrow and i think people expect this to keep working and that this was just another one of those orthodox things. what if it isn't? breaking new ground in terms of dealing with supply shock driven inflation which is not something policymakers or markets have had to deal with since the 1970's. i am not entirely convinced that the initial reaction or the initial solution will be the correct one. jonathan: great to catch up. cameron crise at bloomberg. people, the program and say by the debt and then it happens -- people, onto the program and

by the dip. now we are here and you have conversations like that and you sit there and you hear conversations and you think, what if? what if is this is the dip to buy. it is never easy. tom: it doesn't matter if you are trading, day trading like lisa's kids are off the couch, or if you have longer-term perspective. you have in your mind a technical set up where you ascertain, do you step in whatever the given point is? my belief on apple is different than dave wilson's belief or jonathan ferro's belief. the phrase i use is writing the rail. apple is riding the two standard deviation rail. jonathan: my point is trading is really hard. tom: like baseball.

like baseball when aaron judge cannot get it done and goes back. he goes back to the dugout. jonathan: get it done. from new york, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i don't know what i'm talking about. tom: neither do i. [laughter] ♪

♪ >> the market seems to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or risk in the equity market. >> for the economy it is important but for the market it is about earnings. >> there is plenty of demand across the board. that issue is can that demand be fulfilled? announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and