tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg October 6, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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president biden and xi jinping as the white house warns beijing about its moves on taiwan. shery: the u.s. tech -- secretary of state tells bloomberg china must act responsibly in the ever grand crisis. we will hear from antony blinken. we are seeing u.s. futures muted at the open after we saw stocks rallying in the afternoon. the s&p 500 erasing one .3% -- one point percent of a loss, the biggest since february. we might get a resolution or kicking the can down the road on the u.s. debt ceiling into december. we also had the 10 year yield changed. strong jobs numbers, private companies adding most jobs in three months. we will be looking forward to the september payroll on friday.
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oil sinking by the most in two weeks and extending losses. this as we continue to see growing u.s. inventory and russia signaled they are ready to help ease a global energy crisis. natural gas is moving, it has been volatile for a few days. we saw it plunge after settling at the highest level in 12 years with president putin saying the russian gas pump will send more gas into ukraine at the end of the year. prices in europe fluctuated and we saw a plunge underscoring how volatile energy markets are. if you look at this chart, russia is the number two producer of natural gas trailing the u.s.. maybe having to go through that nord stream 2 natural gas pipeline. treasuries have also been choppy. there has been pressure in the
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short and around the debt ceiling deadline. we saw today when it comes to october bill -- bills, the yield plunging after reaching that high of 50 basis points. a potential default with senate republicans offering a short-term deal. this is really not a resolution, it is not a suspension either. it is postponing a decision and it is all about the 2022 congressional elections. haidi: as we get this deepening of bipartisan entrenched disagreement when it comes to the debt ceiling, we did hear from jamie dimon, one of the wall street banks that met with white house officials assaying jp morgan is going to review all of their contracts amid concerns. they will begin monday, reviewing those contracts including ties to repo markets, collateral.
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there will be huge demands of people selling treasuries. rates will start going up and he says it will get worse as we move closer to the brink. we see wall street positioning for a worst-case scenario. shery: we are seeing so much caution about the level of the markets as well. we heard from morgan stanley, mike wilson morning we could see fresh paint, a 10 percent correction or so when it comes to tech stocks. this as we expect the s&p earning season doing little for inflation fears as we see pent up consumer demand fizzle out. he thinks the earnings estimates are too high. haidi: we have been watching when it comes to geopolitical risk that this conversation between china skeptical met and national security advisor excel event, this is a long meeting, hours. it was fruitful, more meaningful and substantive than previous
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talks. there were plans for president biden and president xi jinping to hold a virtual meeting before the year end and that could happen in the weeks or months to come. this also coming amid them criticizing china over its taiwan moves. a contentious relationship but it seems like there is more movement toward discourse. shery: more communication between the u.s. and china, also more in china, -- congress. republican leader mitch mcconnell offering a deal to raise the debt ceiling into december which will alleviate the immediate risk of a default. it came as president biden urged corporate leaders to help put pressure on gop lawmakers. pres. biden: if we don't, we will default on a debt that will lead to a self inflicted wound, risks of markets taking, wiping out retirement savings and costing jobs. shery: let's get more from our
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political news director. this is a compromise from mcconnell but i wonder how much this has to do with the congressional elections. democrats want to tie themselves to raising the debt limit? >> i don't think either is to be blamed for this and that is a lot of what is going on. democrats leaving a meeting with the majority leader chuck schumer said they were inclined to take the deal. we have not heard from the majority leader yet, we have been waiting to hear from him. but it looks like they are going to take the deal. which increases the debt ceiling and the borrowing limit until december, a kicking the can down the road move but it allows democrats to get over the hump. they would have spent the next few weeks trying to figure out how to do this because republicans were not willing to do it with them. this way they get to spend time on their priorities. the bills the president wants them to pass on the bill back
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better plan and the infrastructure bill. and tried to figure out the way to do this with republican votes in december. also interesting, by december 3 they will have to make a decision on pending levels. you might recall last week they passed a bill to fund the government until december 3. a lot of things will be coming up in time for the christmas shopping season. haidi: jodi, what do you see as the next steps in the key meetings and wrangling to watch out for? jodi: we are next watching to hear from majority leader schumer. whether he says they are going to take this, and if they do, how this will work legislative ly. if republicans are willing to vote for it they can do that. we will have to hear from the house but it looks like this could pass if the democrats agree. they do control the majority. this could pass quickly. then the question is what are
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they going to do in december. would the republicans be saying to them you need to pass this only with democratic votes, which the democrats say they don't want to do? it could be the same set of problems with the markets. this would calm the markets now but we don't know what it's going to be in december, we could be in for a rough ride. haidi: jodi, political news director. president biden will meet with president xi jinping before the end of the year. meetings between the white house national security advisor jake sullivan and the top chinese diplomat. joining us from washington, we heard these reactions from the u.s. saying these were meaningful talks, six hours, different tone to the talks we
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had in alaska. >> yes. we have certainly seen in recent days and effort at improving the relationship and engagement. we saw on monday for instance u.s. trade representative katherine tai give an important speech talking about a republican with china rather than -- eight re-coupling -- a re-coupling with china. ways to collaborate, three pillars where china needs to live up to its phase i agreements. the u.s. needs to provide 301 exclusions from those tariffs for businesses that need to import their input, and also working with allies such as europe to face china together. that is really a new approach that has been laid out this week by president biden's top trade
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envoy. shery: listen to what secretary blinken had to say about can you occasions with china. >> what i hope is that these actions will seize -- cease because there is the possibility of miscalculation, mitigation, and that is dangerous. shery: you mentioned the shortfalls in the phase one trade deal and that we might see more talk on that from the u.s. pr. what you may expect in terms of the issues they don't see i to i on -- eye to eye on? >> the agenda katherine tai has made will try to address in the future. she mentioned she does not like the idea of calling the agreement from january 2020 the phase one deal because it implies there is definitely a phase two and that it would
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raise expectations for continued negotiation along the lines inherited from the trump administration where is the biden administration may take a different tack with china. they may look to build the trade relationship in new ways. but at the same time, while raising concerns but u.s. businesses have about how they are treated in china. shery: eric martin with the latest. you can hear the discussion with secretary blinken in full later this hour on daybreak all-star leo. -- daybreak: australia. concerns over high leverage borrowers in global contagion. nearly one dozen chinese property firms have debt and investors are eyeing repayment dates. let's bring in john. we have heard consistently that
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evergrande might not be a systemic risk toward china, but what about the risk to the broader economy and the broader property sector and what we are seeing right now with other developers? john: that is what is intriguing about what has happened the last few days, you've got this issue with fantasia, a smaller play and different magnitude from evergrande but it has chosen not to make it a due payment. the response has been in many ways more dramatic in terms of the values of high-yield bonds across the property space. and when evergrande first got into difficulty, there comes a clear risk that you could have broader economic contagion across real estate. i think that -- i said this myself a couple of weeks ago, it is natural enough because it is a large player up to the gills with real estate prices that are
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higher than they should be. you would draw comparisons with lehman. it is not a lehman issue, more of an economic issue of what happens if this big impulse from real estate is taken away from the chinese economy. at this point, it is difficult to calibrate it but that is a real risk. haidi: this could be a domino effect, forcing other property developers to think about selling, closing financing window. and that's a bullock way, is this quite dangerous -- symbolic way, is this dangerous? >> yes. it is interesting because it has not created significant contagion to the west, we've been worried about the debt ceiling, the natural gas situation in europe. and apparently we are not able to think of more than two things at once. but the issues from china, the ongoing problem is that people
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have come to expect 6.5% gdp growth from china you're in, you're out. as something they can rely on. and what we see, if you lose the big impulse you have had from all of this real estate investment going on in china, prudent or otherwise creating jobs, making things happen. if you lose that impulse, you expect a slower rate of growth from china. i don't think that is yet in prices in the west. haidi: making sure we look at all of the bad news stories, our bloomberg opinion colonist. evergrande is a key concern for markets, what are we seeing when it comes to a risk of contagion for the reserve? sophie: looking at how capital flows performed, we are seeing a
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dip in the dollar and the drop that indicates whether or not china is looking to backstop evergrande contagion risk. data and thursday on thursday coming from china. chinese markets were enclosed, switching out the charts, stocks have been taking a beating. hang seng -- tech valuation concerns, this alongside regulatory tightening which they are recommending to stay away from chinese internet plays and other sectors that are facing the eye of the storm in china. focusing on small caps. we have seen tech stocks getting hammered lower while yields are rising. banking shares have been getting ground, citigroup turning to value stock in financials and to hedge against higher rates and protect against market turbulence.
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shery: let's get to su keenan with the first word headlines. su: the ecb is studying a new bond buying program to prevent turmoil when emergency purchases are phased out. the plan would replace the existing crisis tool and complement an older come up open-ended q. week scheme -- qe scheme acquiring debt every month. a spokesperson declined to comment. to russia where president putin has intervened in the energy market, offering to stabilize the european debt crisis and is saying russia could export record volumes of fuel this year. his deputy said certification of the controversial nord stream 2 would be one way to boost exports. european natural gas futures plunged after early record highs. the carlyle group believes firms
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are under investing in china. at the invest summit, the ceo said many corporate and investment leaders are under exposed the china market. they added the regions markets have always had what he calls short-term bumps and investors should take a long-term view with china. >> the question is not should i be investing in that region or not, it is really what is the best way and how should we be doing it? in my mind, i think there is more opportunity in that region of the world than not, especially since valuations have corrected in that part of the world. su: finally, travel during china's golden week, national vacation down by a third of pre-pandemic levels. certain virus outbreaks way on tourism and spending. the number of trips taken on china's transport networks tuesday was below levels seen in
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2019. officials have revised against unnecessary challenge and gather -- travel and gathering for their most important holiday after lunar new year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: ahead we get more analysis on the upcoming u.s. china talks, with richard mcgregor. we will discuss the market action with wells fargo investment institute tracy -- tracie mcmillion. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery:shery: u.s. futures getting ground after the biggest reversal since worry, after a loss of more than 1%. our next guest says she is taking advance of market weakness. let's bring in the head of allocation strategy at wells fargo investment institute. great seeing you. this chart is showing the volatility we have seen on the s&p 500 recently. if you are buying the dip, why? tracie: what we have been telling investors over the last few days is that this type of volatility is expected. we have several things we are watching, the debt ceiling is one of them and that has been contributing to the recent volatility. but we look for these 5% corrections. it's usually 10%, now 5%, adding money to the equity market. shery: more voices telling us to liquidate because this is a good time.
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you have downgraded the emerging markets. why? tracie: we downgraded to a neutral way. we were overweight but we had concern over regulatory restrictions. there is uncertainty around what companies may be regulated next, so we think that will put a lid on some valuation. and also the u.s. growth expectations are lower in 2022 for emerging markets. haidi: when it comes to the inflationary outlook, is there a bigger risk when it comes to emerging markets in terms of how much capacity such a banks in that part of the world will have to deal with any sharp price rises? tracie: that is certainly another risk, but we are looking at inflation as potentially elevated but not something that is going to derail the global
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growth story. we still think global growth is north of 5% next year, and what we are seeing here is really inflation and not stagnation of growth. haidi: does the energy crisis potentially derail the global growth story? and on the positive side, do you think there are upsides for the sector? tracie: there could be some additional upsides, what we are now approaching the upper end of our oil target for the year, $80 is the upper end of our target. possible we could see some upside. some of the precious metals have not done as well as energy or agricultural product. in terms of looking at that benefiting a portfolio, it definitely does. we do have allocations to
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commodities and we are overweight commodities right now. shery: we had strong adp numbers. what are you expecting for friday's payroll numbers and how will that factor into your strategy? tracie: we are expecting consensus around 480 8000, we are expected 500,000. we will see more upside than consensus because that survey was taken later in the month. so it could reflect the decline in case loads for covid, expiring unemployment benefits and then kids going back to school. not to mention rising wages that could be drawing in workers. maybe that bodes well for spending in the fourth quarter, so that adds to our conviction and adds to equity. haidi: tracie mcmillion, head of
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shery: a quick check of the latest headlines, sources say boeing will unveil its 777x freighter in the coming weeks. there are potential buyers including fedex, singapore airlines. the first new jet from boeing in four years is likely to be launched at the dubai air show next month. malaysia will only allow --
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airasia malaysia will only allow fully vaccinated passengers. masks are mandatory and check-in must be done through the super app to minimize physical interaction. it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. wanna lose weight and be healthier? it's time for aerotrainer. a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time. it allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch,
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virtually with xi jinping before the end of the year. plans for the meeting were announced after talks in zurich. between jake sullivan and the senior chinese foreign policy advisor. u.s. official called the discussions more meaningful and substantive than previous meetings between the bidart beijing. in canada, prime minister justin trudeau announced details of a vaccine mandate for federally regulated industries, all core public service employees will need to prove vaccination against covid the end of october or face suspension without pay in november. passengers on planes, trains and cruise ships must be fully vaccinated by the end of october. a london court says dubai's ruler ordered the hacking of phones belonging to his estranged wife using pegasus
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spyware. they have been fighting over the welfare of their children after the incident in 2019. mohammed denied the allegations of sing the ruling was unfair. -- saint the ruling was unfair. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. shery:-- caroline:-- haidi: time for morning calls ahead of asian trading day. sophie: tracie mcmillion was morning about prices -- the precious metals team has lowered the forecast for gold through 2022. the new prediction for average prices this year down from 1830 as economic recovery is dimming
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the appeal. hsbc expects a price floor to be closed and trade risk. shery: look at the commodity space. nasdaq so the most -- natural gas is on the most since december. after signaling from russia that they would help with the energy crisis. that will also affect the manufacturing sector so not surprising we are seeing copper, declines in base metals and inflation concerns, growth concerns that hit hte met -- the metals sector. we continue to seek supply concerns with too much rain in china and the u.s. for cotton. call was under pressure but this is after the 50% rally we saw last month with natural gas prices rising. we continue to see this switch
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into coal. in the u.s., utilities are now using more coal and they are expected to burn about 20% -- 23% more coal this year alone. haidi: china is reportedly releasing australian coal from bonded storage in an effort to overcome its energy crisis. paul allen joins us with more. we have had this issue with australian coal shipments for a year. does this mean there is so much pressure on supply that it is unofficially -- ? >> unofficially seems to be the word, and unofficial ban may be over. there is a report that says about four to 50,000 tons of australian coal -- 400 50,000 tons of australian coal that had been sitting -- a similar observation from an energy
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research firm. china's adventures fusion of customs. this goes back to october of last year when china ordered state-owned owned energy companies and steelmakers to stop australian coal in response to a list of grievances and ahead with australia ranging from the banning of huawei and calling for investigation to the origin of coronavirus. input in bondage storage, waving customs clearance, anecdotal evidence suggests that coal is being released. shery: how much is is expected to help china's energy shortage? >> a drop in the bucket. it helps at the moment that this unofficial ban has been pushing up prices, forcing china to import coal at higher prices
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from elsewhere. austrailia has plenty australia has plenty of coal. -- australia has plenty of coal. whether this could be a circuit breaker in the dispute. haidi: pension funds have been turning more cautious on china but in australian ceo says you can't disengage completely. i sat down with mark delaney at bloomberg invest global to talk about the current strategy of the firm. >> we think it is an area of equal investment opportunities, particularly as the capital market becomes more accessible. it has been our long-term view and has proven to be well placed. the challenges around education companies, real estate are to be
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expected. these things will happen in a developing country, but china remains a very attractive place to invest. that got about three to $4 billion in china across stocks. i suspect that is going to grow. china is the second biggest economy in the world and will probably be the second-biggest location for investing in the world. i don't think funds can disengage with china. all those doctors will work in the long run. haidi: it sounds like you are comfortable with the level of de-risking taking place regardless of evergrande and the property sector. what do you think would make more exposure it compelling
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option? -- a compelling option? >> there are two aspects. look at the stocks, alibaba, tencent and that has been changing for the past four years. clarity around the regulatory market would be useful for us. shery: watch the full conversation with the deputy ceo of australia super as bloomberg -- at bloomberg invest will later today, 7:25 p.m. hong kong time. next we will discuss the outlook for u.s. china relations as president biden and xi planet conference. jude mcgregor will be with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: breakingshery: news, sources telling bloomberg the biden administration is debating whether the u.s. should ask managing director of the imf to resign amid scandal. the treasury liberation continues. the executive board met with her wednesday as part of the review of an investigation by a law
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firm commissioned by the world bank. it alleges she pressured banks to adjust in china's favor while working there. she took the helm of the imf in 2019 and sources tell bloomberg the biden administration is debating the fate of the imf chief as the board reviews auctions. the u.s. is the fund's biggest shareholder with 16.5% of the vote. secretary of state antony blinken has criticized china's actions toward taiwan, saying their part of a --they are provocative and destabilizing. he spoke with us about the phone call between president biden and xi jinping. >> for spoke on the phone a few weeks ago and had a productive conversation covering a lot of issues. whether they will have the occasion to get together in the weeks or months ahead we will see.
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they are likely to participate in some g20 meetings for example. but they had a good, productive conversation and will continue the work that they set out. >> we have seen incursions of chinese plans taiwan. is there a redline you think presidency -- president xi jinping will not cross? are tensions high? >> the actions we have seen by china are provocative and potentially destabilizing. so what i hope is that these actions will cease because there's always the possibility of miscalculation, miscommunication and that is dangerous. in the past, we have managed to handle the issue surrounding taiwan in a way that has
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sustained stability. provocative actions go in exactly the wrong direction, and it is important that no one take any unilateral actions to change the status quo by force. so we really need to see china s cease some of the actions it has taken because they are potentially a source of instability. >> so the u.s. needs to take a hard line while trying to find common ground. >> there are many issues between the united states and china. it is one of the most consequential elation chips in the world and were the most complicated and has different aspects. there are aspects we know well and there are adversarial aspects and cooperative ones. we have to engage in every one of these aspects of the relationship at the same time. climate happens to be an
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existential issue that affects everyone on the planet, the united states, china, and other country. in china like the united states has great responsibility when it comes to dealing effectively with climate change. we are about 15% of global emissions, china is also high, it is important for both of us to meet our response abilities. means is setting targets for how we will curb climate change and making sure we are contributing to help others you with resilience and taking important steps like moving away from coal. >> there is a lot a focus on how the chinese authorities are dealing with evergrande. what does it tell you about chinese stewardship? >> china has to make a sovereign economic decisions for itself. but we also now that what china does economically is going to
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have profound ramifications, found effects on the entire world because all of our economies are intertwined. when it comes to something that could have a major impact on the chinese economy, we look to china to act with --to act responsibly and deal effectively with any challenges. shery: -- haidi: antony blinken with francine lacqua. always great to have you with us to mcgregor. -- richard mcgregor. they are combating for desire for global.--dominance. how's the situation changed in light of what we have seen with the recovery in the united states and regulatory overhang in china? richard: i don't think leverage has fundamentally changed. i guess you me and has the u.s.
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leverage increased and has china diminished. i think if you look at chinese, it is overnight. they say we are not afraid of a long drawn out petition or a contest with the u.s.. the sorts of short-term problems you see in the chinese economy now, the u.s. recovery, which has been truncated by their own problems with covid, that fundamentally changes the course these two countries are on in competing with each other. possibly moving toward some form of conflict. haidi: it doesn't sound like you think share dominance is a likely scenario. richard: shared dominance? haidi: yeah. is that a possibility? richard: i guess shared dominance sounds like an oxymoron to me. you are either dominant or not or you are dumb and not --
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dominant in one part of the world not another. the bottom line of the competition is in taiwan, the south china sea and the like. the whole point of the u.s. foreign policy in the last four years, last six years is for the u.s. to compete more strongly in that area. i don't see that changing in the short-term and oh. it does not mean the u.s. will prevail or will not have to make substantial compromises, there is no stepping back on either side at the moment. shery: it feels like relations are thawing. as the u.s. official said after this meeting, it is not like it was in march in alaska, we saw the potential virtual meeting between the two presidents, talking about trade. why now?
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does this have to do with the release of huawei's cfo? what has led to this? richard: the two sides have worked hard to restore the nation for some kind of dialogue and the release of the huawei cfo was part of that. the release of the canadians was part of that for some u.s. citizens from china itself. they are clearing the decks of obvious or symbolic obstacles so they can at least have a dialogue. but in the bigger picture, i think it is probably optimistic to describe it as a thought. -- as a thaw. they are trying to feel each other out and see what the basis for dialogue is. jake sullivan, the chinese side, they appeared to have late enough of a groundwork and have an agreement to get mr. xi and
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mr. biden in a meeting. it is not much more than that. shery: what would be the low hanging fruit they can pick at this point? there are some issues, human rights, hong kong, trade. richard: i think climate change, there may be room for cooperation there. john kerry and the chinese climate change ambassador have a good rapport. perhaps initiative on vaccines and covid even though there is a lot of -- there has been a lot of chewing and furling of that issue. -- to-ing and fro-ing. the u.s. has been vagueness week in a speech about trade but they are going to talk about that and alleged chinese shortcomings on phase one of the deal. those are the areas that stand
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out to me. along the longer term, whether the u.s. would want some sort of agreement on chinese conduct around taiwan or in the south china sea and the sorts of cold war agreements they had with the soviets, but i doubt china will have those agreements. they don't want to be constrained. haidi: the big gamble to look to the u.s. rather than china, it's biggest trading partner. do you see their trade relationship, the diplomatic relationship can be repaired between china and is really a question mark -- and australia? richard: not too previously. from the chinese economic coercion against australia, china's focus is laying the groundwork to begin talks to go into the cpt pp. that is the focus against --
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focus. further action against australia would not help. china has short-term problems. australian coal, a couple of wto cases australia has taken against china and vice versa. that is where the trade issue will be worked out. it is possible trade ministers might meet, as to a rapprochement of any substantial kind, that is not in the near term. shery: richard mcgregor, always great to have you. france is returning its ambassador following the awkwardness of the pact between australia, the u.k. of the u.s.. using virus restrictions after october 11 after this date past the 70% double vaccination milestone. we heard that some of those numbers when it comes to
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>> check at the latest headlines, ark moving to florida. joining the financial industries shift, will build an innovation center in the tampa bay region to retain and attract top talent. attacking amazon's videogame and streaming platform which, -- twitch. a game studios product is under development and a document showing that the top gamers have six-figure payouts, up to $9.6 million for the highest grossing account. picking a bank for the secondary listing, working on advisers including bank of america, and
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goldman sachs. prices could change as soon as the end of the year. shery: let's turn to sophie for what stocks to watch. sophie: on the m&a font we are keeping an eye on this one, among bidders listed for meridian. final offers due in december. real estate plays in sydney. keeping an eye on names like center group and we are watching whitehaven. they reportedly have released us trillion coal from bonded storage to manage the and whitehaven getting cut to nutro by ed goldman. given the positive near-term outlook, as well as strong cash flows. haidi: watching some of the
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miners in the us trillion session. let's look at how we are setting up a thursday in asia. some optimism with stocks in asia, declining early in the session but some progress from the u.s. debt ceiling impasse lifting equities on wall street. new zealand up by .1%, sydney futures up by .6%. we are expecting an early gain of about .5% as we lift sanctions and reopening of the economy in new south wales. treading water at the moment, a little rise, upside when it comes to hong kong. s&p futures up by .2 5% after the s&p 500 and the nasdaq raising losses of more than 1% to bounce back with gains on the possibility of a deal that could boost the debt ceiling into december. openly alleviating some immediate risks of a default. the political fight simmering in
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haidi: hello from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. sophie: we are counting down to made -- asia's major market opens. haidi: our top stories this hour. stocks are set to climb after progress on the u.s. debt ceiling deadlock. the dollar is bouncing ahead of friday's job report. plans for talks between president biden and presidency
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