>> inflation isn't to love -- the problem isn't inflation too low. the problem is inflation to high. >> there's elements here that we are dealing with stagflation. >> there's also this idea that higher prices ultimately become a solution to higher prices. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: elude bit of calm before a payrolls -- a little bit of calm before a payrolls storm. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive zero point 8%. we advanced 36 points. a can kick set up downing d.c. -- set up down in d.c.

tom: drawdown, gloom and all of that, institutions solve the problem. the institution of the gentleman from kentucky solved the problem. the institution of mr. putin in moscow solved the problem. jonathan: how sustainable is every thing you just said? that's the question to me. tom: i'm in trouble leveraged all-cash. it doesn't matter to me. jonathan: thanks for participating this morning, tom. [laughter] lisa: i think it is hard to put your head around any narrative. we've just had a shift in are we in any sort of stagflation fears. have we shifted now to, no, it is not that bad, and policymakers are so concerned about keeping everything going that they will step in at the slightest turbulence? jonathan: it is a lovely bounce this morning for the equity bulls. we are up 39 on the s&p. we advanced 0.9%. yields unchanged on tens at

1.5172%. crude was approaching $80 yesterday morning. $76.28. we had vladimir talking about natural gas and secretary granholm talking about potentially releasing some crude. tom: we've got to stop right here because smart people are coming out and saying the analogs to the past aren't there. carl weinberg, with huge experience, says it is not 1973. that is all there is to it. i love what ben laidler said this morning. we are a deacon society -- we are a de-commoditized society. jonathan: i'm glad you are back in this morning. lisa: right now we are looking at a bit of stasis ahead of that

big payrolls report we get tomorrow, and the drumbeat gets louder. at 8:30 am, we get u.s. initial jobless claims. very curious to see how much they continue to go down given some of the supply chain constraints you have seen. auto companies in particular have to suspend production and do temporary layoffs. then we get a discussion on inflation. the jobs market very much dovetails into concerns about how quickly prices are rising, how sustainable this is. 11:45 a.m., cleveland fed president loretta mester will be joining philip lane of the ecb, discussing consumer prices about the highest since 2008 around the world. a quote from datatrek yesterday showing that the pace of increases in wages would have to remain above 4% for years before you get that wage inflation spiral that creates good inflation. curious to see what they have to say about that.

today is the final day of the bloomberg invest conference. we heard about stagflation. we've heard about china fears. how do we move the conversation forward at a time when there really isn't a narrative today? jonathan: lisa, thank you. great set up into payrolls tomorrow. the numbers drop from ellen zentner at morgan stanley. we expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 700,000 in september. we did expect only a slight down to can the end limit rate owing to a bump in labor force participation. we expect average hourly earnings rose, lifting the rate to 4.6%. that report just in from morgan stanley. tom: that is a healing economy. morgan stanley and others have led on this glide path, q3, q4. what i heard is a set of guesstimates that signal a

healing america. what is that timeline? we don't know, but it is a healing america, not the gloom of recession. that is a big number. jonathan: we catch up with ellen zentner tomorrow, and thomas custard of picked at -- and thomas koster of picked at -- of pictet as well. now the run rate is we have no idea. kathy jones joins us now, charles schwab chief fixed income strategist. i always read about the and of easy money. what does that mean backup? -- that mean? kathy: it means an end to the support we are getting from the central bank. it does mean as we look forward,

when we have financial conditions about as easy as they have and in a decade, that narrative will start to change and we will start to see this excess stimulus. that is what the markets i think have to adjust to over the next six to 12 months. lisa: is tapering tightening? tomorrow will be a key determines about whether november will be the month where we hear about the plans to taper, and maybe it begins. kathy: absolutely not. the balance sheet is going to continue to grow. we project about $9 trillion by the middle of next year, when presumably we will be done with tapering. so the balance sheet is still growing. that keeps financial conditions really easy. don't expect a rate hike into late 2022. so tapering is not tightening. but the signaling is important here. what we have seen in the past is when the fed is tapering, we see the fed is an asset purchase

mode. we have seen yields rise and the curve steepen because part of the signal is they are pushing a lot of easy money into the system that should promote economic growth and inflation. as they taper and start to take that away, yields have tended to peak and we will start to come down. that is probably the middle of next year. lisa: so this is really counterintuitive, that tapering will lead to lower yields because it indicates perhaps a slower future because they are removing some accommodation. this time, some people is saying is different because the removal of accommodation, the pace of bond purchases around the world, central banks globally are all coming down at the same time. how much does that remove demand internationally that sets a very different scene? kathy: domestically at least, we are not worried about that because treasury issuance is going to go down more than the

fed is withdrawing in terms of purchases, so net issuance in the united states is set to decline next year. so we are not worried about the demand-side replacing the fed purchases. i think that is probably not going to be an issue because we are not really in a position here where an institutional investor, pension fund, insurance company, whatever that needs long-term assets, you are still going to be buying that, so we are not too worried about the supply side. tom: i just did a quick look at the inflation-adjusted five year yield, which may be is a retiree proxy. schwab works with a lot of retirees. can you explain to me why they should hold bonds if they have seen a negative five year real yield since july of 2010? it has been essentially 11 years of no return lipping coupons.

kathy: -- no return clipping coupons. kathy: i would argue there has been a positive return. but you are right, we have been suggesting lower duration for i don't know how long now because those yields are so long. we are certainly not suggesting everybody go into negative real yields in their retirement portfolios. usually you go balance of assets, and the fixed income assets are there. the capital preservation to reduce volatility, that still works. even when we look at the role of treasuries in the lowest yielding and say should we substitute other assets for that , it is really tough to find something that will offset a significant decline in the stock market, other than treasuries. so there is still a role for it.

regarding tips, we like the total return approach and portfolios. we told people they have to rebalance frequently and sometimes use the whole portfolio to generate income. so there are a lot of strategies you can use without exiting fixed income entirely. jonathan: kathy, we like you and we appreciate your time. kathy jones, schwab center for financial research. looking quickly on the bloomberg terminal, on the 10 year year end, it is 1.59%. you have to look to q4 2022 for something close to 2% took again , based on the forecast here, 1.99% year end 2022. tom: we don't talk enough about what all this means for retirees , other than the fixation in equities. in the intermediate term, the last 11 years has generated 5% per year. you take out inflation, i am

going to take the point of kathy jones, that is a positive real return. but the cfa word here is t suites. jonathan: if you think in terms of capital returns, there's been some years in the mix for the long bond over the last 10 years. if you are just sitting it, granted. i know what you are saying. tom: we do the math in real time here on "surveillance." lisa: he is still in triple leveraged all-cash. jonathan: of course. i get it. i'm with you. tom: did i do ok? jonathan: you are fantastic. your wonderful man. tom: i feel loved. jonathan: up 39 on the s&p. session highs. i will come in there and give you a hug. tom: tampa bay is so good. jonathan: on radio, on tv, good

morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. democrats are signaling they will accept senate republican leader mitch mcconnell's offer to raise the debt ceiling into december. that whatever the immediate risk of a default, but also increases the risk of another political fight near the end of the year. if federal judge has temporarily blocked texas' new ban on most abortions. he said it was contrived to get around a constitutional right. it is a major win for the biden administration, which has sued to overturn the ban. damage from the coronavirus extends well beyond the disease's initial stages, according to a veterans affairs health system in st. louis. it claims that even those who were never sick enough to need hospitalization are at risk for heart failure. apple is working on technology that would allow the iphone to

control air conditioning and radio, among other features. american express is expanding the perks available to customers of its high-end premium card. one of those will be rewards from discount retailer walmart. the $695 a year card is a program that gives customers free shipping for online orders, plus discounts on gas and prescriptions. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ sec. yellen: if congress does not take action debt limit,

america would default for the first time in history. recovery would be thrown into reverse. we would likely experience a recession. >> we need to resolve this issue very quickly. every day of delay comes at an increasing price. >> actual default would be unprecedented. the effects would be -- we need to show american competence, not incompetence. jonathan: meeting the president to discuss the risk of potential default in america. it looks like d.c. is getting together to kick that can into december. good morning. your equity market is bouncing back, up 42. d.c. contributing to this. we are higher by almost 1%, this morning radically different to yesterday morning. yields unchanged, 1.52% on tends. crude negative, lower down to

$76 30 nine cents. crude down by 1.34%. tom: i'm glad you are following crude there. it is a draw up. 1.2%. massive expansion. jonathan: i gave him one of those european socially distanced hugs to make you feel better. are you still upset? tom: because the red sox are going up against the raise, and the raise -- the rays, and the rays aren't the new york yankees. the last time she was on, we got a ton of mail. henrietta treyz joins us again with veda partners on your washington folly. world war i, 1917, the second liberty bond act. it is their fault we have a debt limit. is this debate now the same as it was when we prosecuted world war i?

henrietta: i think it is a horse of a different color now. we learned yesterday, don't even think about getting in the ring with the treasury. you are not going to win that fight. you saw the secretary of state, the pentagon, defense department, jamie dimon, larry gensler, everybody come out of the woodwork. i think dick cheney might have weighed in at one point. they are not in a position to mess around with the debt ceiling. it is not for smalltime political football, and they got a very serious message yesterday from all of those leaders. it was nice to see some sort of establishment political really function. tom: there was the rule in 1979. what is the treyz rule of 2022? what is the new folly? henrietta: my mantra is they are not going to do anything until they absolutely have to, so they

are going to find ways to get around deadlines. one of my colleagues >> to say they are both the players and the referees in this game of congressional football, so when they don't want to play a game, they literally just set up a new goal. my mantra in this cycle with 50 seats split in the senate, they are not going to do anything until they absolutely have to. they are negotiating something really difficult at the leadership level, which is to figure out how long the duration of this kick the can is really going to go. tethering the treasury secretary to any specific dollar figure or date is nearly impossible, so that is really important to both members. they were trying to hash out a deal. they don't have one yet. we will figure that out hopefully sometime today. the senate will take a boat and go on recess. jonathan: help me out with this. it is a little but off-topic, but i think it is pertinent.

we heard from john kerry, now the special envoy on climate change for this administration. he had some odd comments about the president of the united states, and insinuated that the president didn't realize how annoyed the french were. what did you make of those comments? henrietta: i think right now, the u.s. is doing a serious balancing act. one of the things john kerry has as an opportunity is to really start weighing in on foreign policy, whereas the biden administration has been so focused on domestic policy with covid, with the bipartisan infrastructure bill. now he can get more vocal. obviously the french have a lot of issues with some of the announcements we have made, and secretary kerry may get more aggressively involved based on his more recent trip to china, so i think him bringing france to the forefront, especially while ustr is there having many gigs -- having meetings in

france is a very important timing opportunity, and i think the biden administration is going to get a lot more involved in foreign trade and foreign policy as a general role from the white house than they have for the last 10 months. jonathan: from your perspective, was he undermining the president or secretary blinken? henrietta: that is a good question. i don't want to necessarily get involved with who he is undermining. i think he himself has self undermined in a lot of ways for several months now, so i am sure there's a lot of blame to go around. i think the administration has a whole bunch of wheels moving up the same time, with the eu in particular, on things like the global minim tax agreement, aluminum tariffs, and getting all of those agreements to come off at the same level in a conversation where you can't even get a deal on fisheries, and we want to turn everybody's attention to china. i think it is really complicated, so i don't know trying to shoot any messengers on the ministry side is in their best interest, certainly not

from within the building. lisa: it feels like whack-a-mole a lot of days because we are talking about the administration , domestic policy and domestic agenda. from transportation secretary pete buttigieg this morning on msnbc, saying that the administration has concerns about truck driver turnover. this comes after the energy secretary talked about potentially releasing energy reserves to keep oil prices down . how much is this just whack-a-mole versus a cohesive strategy to try to address some of the labor market frictions throughout the industries we are talking about here? henrietta: it is every calamity at the exact same time. i think everybody has another person down the line to blame, whether it is the ships sitting off the coast in the pacific who can't get offloaded, who can't find trucks to unload them, who has to deal with the energy crisis. it is really never-ending, and i think that is part of why the debt ceiling was such a travesty

to even bring up. there are real problems. whack-a-mole is a perfect term for it. the administration is trying to tackle it from as many perspectives as possible. they will tell you first and foremost, give us the infra structure built who we can get this spending out. help us show supply chains, invest in production, find a way out of this morass, and see if we can rectify any of these immediate constraints. but the supply chain is absolutely broken, and they need to fix that, along with dealing with energy crises and inflation. so i think a step in that direction, the ustr announced yesterday the federal register, which is that they will start alleviating or excluding some tariffs. we are going to get some materials reforms to the u.s. trade relationship with the eu on steel and aluminum tariffs, and they will alleviate some of their reciprocal ones, and eventually some movement on the china front. there's a long way to go, and it will take years to sort out of

this for sure. jonathan: we could talk to you for years. you know that. great to catch up. henrietta treyz of veda partners. good morning. on radio, on tv, for our audience worldwide, futures up 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: what are you calling this, tom, a male top -- a melt up? tom: a drawdown after a melt up. jonathan: all of this following the biggest one-day reversal on the s&p 500 going back to february. we were deeply negative at the start of the session. helped out by what is happening in washington, but also by this in the energy market. we have that verbal intervention from president putin. that verbal intervention from secretary granholm in the united states. the bdi crude back with a $76 handle. we are -1.5%.

natural gas down by 2.6%. that is the energy story. here's the bond market story. get to the italian bond market and the u.s. bond market as well. we finally see some central bank divergence between the ecb and the federal reserve going into next year? united states right now is staring down tapering. yields doing nothing today. yields in five basis points. tom: here we go. jonathan: the ecb, according to our team in frankfurt, studying a new bond buying program to complement the old bond buying program to replace the more recent bond buying program. tom: so what of that? jonathan: the emergency bond buying program, so-called pepp, had a ton of flexibility. what replaces it? that is the so what. do we have that flexibility once

the pandemic emergency purchase program ends? yields in italy, a nice rally for bdp. did you get all that? do you feel ok this morning? do you feel good? tom: i am seeing negative yields come up. german tenure comes up a little bit. swiss 20 years positive. jonathan: he's very sensitive this morning. lisa: he is. jonathan: it's ok. one more day. tom: i know, one more day until the red sox confronts the tampas. jonathan: the tampas, ok. let's get you some movers and say good morning to r omaine. dave: all eyes --romaine: all eyes are on the tech space now. chip stocks have really been emblematic of this. talking about the philadelphia semiconductor index, which headaches huge -- which had a huge drawdown. nvidia up about 2% in the

premarket. folks realizing valuations definitely got a little too oversold, at least based on traditional technical measures. keep an eye on gm. those shares up about 1.2% today. mary barra doubling down on that pledge to double revenue by the end of the decade. a big component of that is going to be the self-driving car unit. that unit expected to contribute about $50 billion of revenue within six years at about 40% on a margin basis. rocket lab which has positioned itself as an alternative to spacex, got a nasa contract for a solar sail project. supposed to be more of a renewable way to get things to the edge of space, so those shares up 8%. jack dorsey in the news. square shares moving higher on initiation over at jefferies. the analysts basically calling it the leader in the neo-bank space, saying it is a must own. twitter shares also higher. tom: the what bank space?

romaine: neo-bank, tom. you can go to a regular bank like you do, or you can do neo-banks. square, fintech, whatever you want to call it. they are all kind of catchwords on the space now. they simply, you can log onto square, send me money, buy your crypto. tom: is square going to give me a toaster at christmas? romaine: i don't think they do toasters anymore. you can buy your own poster. twitter up from its ad loving -- it's an sharing platform. tom: right now, sarah house helps us with the jobs report, all of this back to the tradition of the great john silvia. they go deeper. you and your team have looked at this pandemic, our labor dynamics, and women.

how are women doing within the pandemic and within the jobs reports we see tomorrow? sarah: women are still lagging behind in terms of the labor market recovery. particularly when it comes to mothers, just given the childcare considerations that women and parents generally have had to contend with, but we have seen it disproportionately on women. the participation rate of mothers has declined about five times the amount we have seen for men. i think as we head into the fall , we have seen some of those burdens begin to ease, so i think when we look ahead, we are expecting to see some improvements in the labor supply. there's been a lot of hype around september, between schools being back and the unemployment insurance benefits ending in all states. i think you will see incremental improvement, but these are issues that are going to take months to play out. tom: let's go back to your work at london school of economics on development.

within 3.5 trillion dollars, whatever the number is going to be, of social programs forward, is some form of u.s. european-like childcare the most productive way to get women employed? sarah: i think he could certainly help. we have seen labor force participation among women in the u.s., we used to lead the pack in the early 2000's, and we have continued to fall behind because we haven't made a lot of those investments in childcare. if you look at the labor force participation rate among women with children age six, it speaks to the robustness of a more childcare system in allowing a large share of your population to work and contribute to the overall economy. lisa: we have seen that participation rate broadly continue to remain far below where it was pre-pandemic.

how do you look at this rate to determine the tightness of the labor market, considering some of these people may never come back to the labor market? sarah: i think it is still a big question in terms of what extent workers do come back. i think some of the issues that are keeping workers on the sideline are more temporary in nature. i think some of the childcare issues related to those parents of school-age children, where they were having to guide their children through remote learning, perhaps not fully sure how consistently they will be back in the classroom this fall, but i think there's questions over to what extent is this permanent. we have seen substantial retirements. if you look at labor force participation across age, it has recovered about half its loss for primate workers, but it hasn't gone anywhere for your older workers. so those 65 or older. i thing we have seen some permanent loss of labor supply, although i still think there is still a decent amount

of latent supply that can come into the market over the next year. lisa: this is one of the most confusing aspect, the idea that we don't have a sense of how money people are going to return , how many have retired, who has found a new job, what some of the frictions are. jonathan: how much slack is there? how tight is this labor market? i have no idea. big question for this market in tomorrow, how low is the bar for the fed? sarah: i think chair powell set the bar fairly low. he said they'll need to see a reasonably good report. it does not need to be a knockout. what could be reasonably good? i think anywhere around 350,000 or higher would tick that box. that is still better than we saw over the last cycle, where that run rate was about 206 2000. you have seen directionally some improvement when it comes to the health situation.

some of these supply constraints easing. i think we should see the pay were report tomorrow clear that bar. jonathan: sarah, thank you. sarah house of wells fargo securities weighing in on the report and what it means for this fed. my producer sending me a note from evercore. this is their call. "we think the hurdle that friday's september report has to clear in order to move ahead with tapering in november is even lower than we previously addressed." what does that mean for markets? a low bar for tapering means that equities are likely to be particularly sensitive to the end limit report -- to the unemployment report. it ought to be risk on regardless. tom: what is these to sister give -- thesis is tick -- the statistic they give? jonathan: that number showed at 235,000 increase, to something

in and around 235,000 still gets it done in the mind of evercore. tom: i was going to take off tomorrow, but i guess i will come in. jonathan: what is this long weekend you are planning to have? tom: i don't know. i'm waiting for payrolls. i got to talk to my staff about monday. jonathan: lisa, you happy about that? [laughter] lisa: i will let dr. phil deal with that. i do want to talk about the threshold to cross. your question about the stock reaction, isn't it priced in? doesn't the market broadly expect november to be the beginning of tapering? doesn't that mean it is indicative of less tightening down the road? jonathan: i'm with you. lisa: i personally think this is such a difficult moment to address because you can't really make assumptions based on such narrow frames of reference. i keep going back to the quote that basically come these wage increases have to be persistent across years before you get that

inflationary wage spike. what do you do with that if you are in the market having to trade on a daily basis? jonathan: equities up by 1%, we advance by 42. a fascinating note from citigroup's morning. just really heartfelt and wonderful, what rob buckland over at citi is doing, honoring tobias levkovich. i will let their words speak for us. "we mourn the passing of our dear colleague and as are some of these to his family. we renamed our panic indicator as the left of it -- as the levkovich indicator. " i know i speak for us and the whole of the team, we will, too. ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. the senate is closing in on a deal that would potentially avert a debt crisis for now. then, congress would have to vote again to avoid a default. bloomberg has learned the fate of imf managing director kristalina georgieva. she has been caught up in an ethics scandal from the time that she was at the world bank. the u.s. is the imf's largest shareholder and could ask georgieva to resign. bloomberg has learned the european central bank is studying a new bond buying program that would be used to prevent market turmoil when emergency purchases get phased out next year. the plan would replace the existing crisis tool and complement an older easing scheme. bnp paribas once to reward investors after the end of a cap on dividends. bloomberg has learned the french bank is explored a number of

scenarios, including raising its payout to 6% of annual profit. fifa soccer videogames macy's to exist in their current form after publisher electronic arts says it may rename them. ea is exploring the naming rights agreement with fifa, soccer's international governing body. that deal is separate from ea's other official partnerships and licenses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is really about whether investors are trying to get the next days or quarter right, or whether they are trying to get

next multiple years the big question is, is this a moment in time? are we moving to a high structural inflation rate, a higher level of growth? abigail: i can tell you -- jonathan: i can tell you right now, we are heading to a higher market. in the equity market, in the bond market a little one. tens at 1.5276. euro advancing about 0.1%. in the commodity market, it has been a persistent rally. in crude, $76.42, negative about a dollar, down 1.3%. tom: thank you so much. an important interview now, and really, we could spend an hour on this discussion on moderna. he is the cofounder and chairman

, and front and center worldwide with where we are with this horrific pandemic. thank you so much for joining us. i want to go back to harold edgerton and m.i.t. you have two degrees from m.i.t. you personify the excellence of biochemistry and bioengineering. what is next for you? harold edgerton always moved forward in optics. how do you move forward after the 2020 you had? guest: well, thanks for having me, and thanks for the kind words and flattering comparison to dr. adjutant. perhaps when i am done doing what i am doing, it might be bore apt than now. i have a long way to go. we have a platform through which we are able to make innovations

that might otherwise exist from now bring us forward. we have a team of over one scientists and engineers, and out of that have come a dharna, and several others have come moderna and ash have come moderna -- have come moderna and several other ones. that is what we will keep working on. tom: you need to expand to the frontier economies of this world. it is easy to bring moderna to europe, to the usa. do you have to bring the vaccines to africa or find a different process, a different technology? dr. afeyan: i don't think you need a different technology. you may be aware, we just announced today a commitment by

moderna to establish the first ever mrna manufacturing plant. we will select a location in the continent of africa over the coming months. there are discussions ongoing. but it is going to have production capacity of up to 500 million doses of our multiple vaccines we have under development, as well as data for covid, and that will involve investment of $500 million. so that is one approach, but i should say the technology could also mean -- everything else has been dramatically more complex. this is a pure information molecule, and if you know what to do with it, they make the antigen. it can attack any kind of

threat, including respiratory viruses we are going after. so i think the to knology -- the technology has lent itself to production globally. lisa: your share is up more than 890% since the end of march last year. there has been a huge surge of money into the pharmaceutical industry on the heels of the mrna invents months, and ash mrna advancements, and also because there does -- mrna advancements, and also because there does seem to be more money available for vaccines. this is been traditionally a dearth of investment. dr. afeyan: remarkably, the most effective from a suitable company, historically we have no real access to being able to use it on our behalf, so occasionally, people develop

vaccines over decades of work, and that is why it has been the backwaters of the industry. and blood people can see proof of concept of what vaccines can do. they are innately powerful if you know how to control them. so i think money is not just following the short-term opportunity, but recognizing a real shift in what is possible and how effective our immune system can be. should also say another phenomenon is driving the capital. that has to do with a shift in this industry from the shots on goal, we call it, where you bet on a lot and maybe one or two out of 50 make it, versus a gradually more deterministic activity. i don't mean that every thing we do works, but we should expect anything to work. it is a question of learning and making better and better products. that has not been the investment thesis of the pharmaceutical industry. so i think we are in the

beginning stages of where this begins to looking more like tech and less like this complicated speculative activity. jonathan: it is great to catch up. let's continue this conversation another time. weighing in on how much that industry is set to change. without the world would change radically 11 months ago when we had that efficacy data in and around november. it was set to open the way to ease some of these supply chain issues. the world would reopen. it has not quite happened that way, has it? tom: no, it hasn't. what i would say in my amateur study of pandemics going back hundreds of years, they always take longer to end. that is a common theme, and there is a rationalization, to use a baseball metaphor, somewhere in shortstop, around third-base, it just goes on forever. jonathan: sometimes in markets,

as you know, you don't necessarily need things to get better. you just need them to stop getting worse. tom: is that where we are? jonathan: perhaps. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we don't expect a rate hike until late 2022, so tapering is not tightening. >> this is very wobbly because there's elements that we are dealing with stagflation. >> inflation is going to become more problematic, but not problematic enough for stocks. >> you are going to see room for breakevens to continue to rise from here on. >> we are trying slowly to return to the fairytale we had before. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz