>> we don't expect a rate hike until late 2022, so tapering is not tightening. >> this is very wobbly because there's elements that we are dealing with stagflation. >> inflation is going to become more problematic, but not problematic enough for stocks. >> you are going to see room for breakevens to continue to rise from here on. >> we are trying slowly to return to the fairytale we had before. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz,

and tom keene. onto the jobs report tomorrow, we do it with a better market. it is a draw up. jonathan: we are trading on verbal intervention, not trading on resolutions. tom: very nice. jonathan: that is really important to draw a distinction between what is happening here. we are kicking the can in washington, d.c. a bit of verbal intervention. right now, i don't see any resolutions. so sentiments better, yes, but there's a lot still to address. tom: we've had the correction, which was a non-correction, down whatever number you want to use, 6%, 7%, 8%. the back story is there is still a wall of money looking for a warm spot. jonathan: do we need things to get better or stop getting worse? the shipping bottleneck problems are officially going mainstream. as usual, that probably means the worst is behind, even if it means it will take some time to resolve. tom: tea leaves for the morning,

liz ann sonders does it with her team and a great set of charts. finally, shanghai to l.a. cargo rose over -- cargo rose over ever so slightly. lisa: can we stop worrying about stagflation now? that is what this comes down to since that was the prevalent concern over the past few weeks. i do find this really interesting from the morgan stanley team in asia, the fact that higher oil prices isn't necessarily negative if it comes with strong demand. the question is, how persistent is that, to the point of verbal intervention? how much are policy makers were living -- policymakers willing to adjust policy? that is the question as we head towards tapering. tom: is the structure of our economy, service sector, goods sector, our impact on economies in america, in europe, is it the

same as the fear memories we have? carl wallenberg says this is not . 19 jonathan: jonathan: 70's. that was set -- not the 1970's. jonathan: at the start of september, we knew september wasn't happening. is it october? no. q1, q2? at the start of 2021 this year, we thought we would have a lot of this dealt with. now we are staring down the reality perhaps that it stays with us a whole lot longer. tom: let's digress to this before the data check. democrats not seeking debt limit increase to february. i don't even understand what that headline means, speaks volumes about washington. jonathan: they are looking to kick the can down the road, to delay the inevitable conversation they've got to have without resolving anything. that seems to be the direction of travel down in washington,

d.c. tom: the direction of travel this morning, i am going to go to the big, round number. nasdaq oz and the 11% you saw, up 1.2%. jonathan: the bond market not doing much. yields unchanged on tens right now. crude, the turn in energy just seems right now there's an inverse correlation between risk assets and energy. crude is down by 1.5% to $76.30. tom: let us synthesize now with daniel morris of bnp paribas on the strategy of the moment. let me go to the marginal strategy, the marginal thought. what have you changed in your belief construct in the last 10 to malta was days -- 10 t -- 10 tumultuous days? daniel: if you asked me before

the fed meeting, let's say it comes out to be a hawkish surprise, what happens to the market, i would say nasdaq cells off, and that is more or less what has occurred. i would have also said that europe should outperform because that growth exposure in the u.s. is going to drag down u.s. relative to performance in europe, and what we have had is europe continuing to underperform. so i think what we have seen over the last couple of weeks is what seems to be a bigger impact on europe in terms of the increase in prices, supply chain bottlenecks, exposure to china that are driving down european equities across most sectors in a way that is not hitting the u.s. despite a bigger increase in real rates. jonathan: you've got a follow-up tom. tom: no, i don't have a follow-up. jonathan: people have really increased their exposure. i am trying to understand from your perspective where they should reduce it. where specifically? daniel: our current allocation

is underweight european large-cap versus u.s. anyway. our over weights in europe are two european small caps, so we see the potential there primarily in the recovery story that you pointed out we thought would start in september and hopefully will come up towards the end of the year instead. but in terms of the exposures you see in europe, i think it really is going to be a function of the flexibility of the labor markets. it is something we talk about with these bottlenecks on the production side and on the labor market side. having to adjust to these unprecedented events, companies can be criticized for not having planned better. but of course, we have gone through a period that no one had been through before. i think it is understandable that companies didn't always react the right way. the key pointing out is who is going to have that flexibility to be able to adapt more quickly, and they are the ones you are going to see outperform. lisa: a lot of people have

looked to the united states in terms of the flexibility. for the jobs report, ellen centre at morgan stanley -- ellen zentner at morgan stanley expecting a higher than average estimate going into that print. is the market pricing in a november taper for the federal reserve? daniel: i think so. the fed has been pretty clear in its communication. you would have to have a pretty catastrophic payrolls figure for the fed to change the timeline it has laid out that should finish by this summer. at some point we are going to start thinking much more about hikes in policy rates, and that will be the thing that drives the markets, particularly the dollar. for now, i would almost argue that tapering is not an issue. the key thing we need to focus on is how earnings come in relative to expectations,

particularly the enormously high bar we had for the first and second quarter, when surprises were so far beyond expect patient. tom: citigroup comes out with a global summary, they honor tobias levkovich. bnp paribas has been so good about framing yield against the economy. do you ascribe as well to a 2% yield out there? daniel: i don't know if i want to put a number on it, but as far as we think yields are going to continue to go up, we have under weights on duration, under weights on real yields, and in our rates portfolio. so it is anticipation that it will go higher. i don't think we need to have a specific number yet. i think it is always evolving, looking at particularly what is happening on the inflation front. also, that arguably has changed over the last few weeks. what is happening with medium to long-term inflation x patients,

the story from the fed for a long time now has been all of these inflationary pressures are temporary, and you saw that in the market. one year, two year inflation expectations shut up a lot, but five-year/tenure didn't move at all. we are starting to see more movement there, and if you did not see that rising, unanchored expectations starting to get back into the market, that is the biggest risk right now. lisa: if yields continue to climb, are stocks in the united states cheap or expensive right now? daniel: very well framed because it is that level of interest rates that is the key factor in determining whether stocks are cheap or expensive. we are so used to looking at pes and you conclude that stocks are just wildly expensive. however, i think that is not a relevant analysis because of qe, because of the interest rates

you've had because of qe. i think arguably we can sustain these high multiples because of quantitative easing, and until that reverses, we are probably less concerned about the risk on the valuation front and paying a lot more attention to the earnings. jonathan: thank you, sir. dan morris of bnp paribas. this is the march towards payrolls friday. that happens tomorrow. jobless claims in about 20 minutes. tomorrow, the median estimate is 500,000. what number do we need for the fed to execute tapering on november 3? this is the quote that stands out from chairman powell. he essentially tried to enter that question in the last news conference. "it wouldn't take a knockout, superstrong employment report. it would take a reasonably good report for me to feel like that test is met." this is where things start to get a big silly -- a bit silly.

we have to define what a reasonably good employment report is for chairman powell. tom: is our next phrase substantial further taper? jonathan: you have to think it is something in line with 235,000. tom: we have drifted so far from some kind of fundamental theory on our economics. i look at this, and what we heard from daniel morris. off the bottom of 1.2% in the 10 year yield, we moved to an .55%. i don't think it is linear. i think the move from 1.55% up to something higher, i don't know what that is going to be, is john yarmuth ramifications -- is ginormous ramifications. jonathan: that movie is very different to what we are experiencing now from the lows of august. the conversation has changed. tom: where is the conversation on a 1.80%, 1.90%? jonathan: earlier, the federal

reserve was comfortable with it. will they be comfortable this time given what is happening with growth expectations into the end of the year? tom: and what does growth look like, particularly once we get through the earnings calls and their visibility. jonathan: i hope you are here, tom. sure what is going on in there. tom: the games are on awful late, jon. jonathan: tom staying up for some baseball. that means he will really be on form tomorrow morning. equity futures up 0.9%. this is bloomberg. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. democrats are signaling they will accept senate republican leader mitch mcconnell's offer to raise the debt ceiling into december. it increases the risk of another political fight at the end of the year. a federal judge temporarily blocked texas' ban on abortions,

saying it was contrived get around a constitutional right. it is a major win for the biden administration, which has sued to overturn the van. apple is working on technology that would allow iphone users to control air-conditioning conditioning, seats, and radio. apple's car play interface is already used to control music, get directions, and make phone calls. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have to build our capacity to be less dependent, and i think everybody now can identify

the fact that when we speak about sovereignty, it means exactly that. being sovereign means being less dependent on the others, and it is critical for us. jonathan: that is true, and it has been true for a long time in europe when it comes to energy. president macron of france. your price action shaping up as follows in the equity market. futures positive 40 on the s&p, 0.9%. a monster reversal yesterday, the biggest one-day reversal going back to february. yields of about a half basis point to 1.5259%. that correlation between risk assets and energy seems to be biting again. equities up, crude lower, down 1.5% on wti, $76.29. tom: jon likes wti. i go to the brand price, $80.17 -- the brent price, $80.17.

she is brilliant on the price theory of hydrocarbons. amrita sen joins us. we are thrilled she could join us this morning. when you look at the cross of demand and supply, what is the single thing our listeners come our viewers need to know? what is the dynamics of oil price and supply and demand right now? amrita: you flatter me, firstly. but i will say this much, that inventories around the world are extremely low everywhere, and that is ultimately the reason because supply just isn't keeping up with demand. opec has spare capacity, but it is choosing to bring back supply slowly. we don't know whether there's going to be covid flareups, so they are being cautious. but inventory is everywhere -- but inventories everywhere,

product is very low. tom: when you look at your guesstimates, your forecast, how far out does a pro iq look given what you just said? are you trying to guess out a week or a month, a quarter? what is the length of the guess right now, given these growing demands? amrita: we do it all the way through the end of next year, so we try and at least have a 12 to 18 months period for the short-term outlook. but of course, it does become less and less certain the further out you go. we can be a lot less certain given all of the high-frequency data we look at. jonathan: which are credible statements? amrita: what if i say neither? [laughter] honestly, i think the reality is what we see from the white house

in particular is that they are not talking about an spr release as an eminent policy tool. this was the question asked, and the answer was yes, all options are on the table. opec says that to us all the time. the key to remember is that the biden administration is very keen to have low gasoline prices for consumers, so we should always keep that in mind. if prices continue to overheat, they will be putting more pressure on opec. with regards to gas and what putin said, the reality is that russian gas inventories are low. even if they wanted to increase exports, they have to refill inventories themselves. that is by european gas prices -- that is why european gas prices are so high. jonathan: frame winter for me. i am trying to understand how tethered the oil story as to what happens with gas, given we are having a big conversation about substitution now. what does that look like for you through a cold winter in europe? amrita: i think if it is a cold

winter, we have to be prepared for very high gas and oil prices. to your point, there is substitution. in europe, it is very small because there are a lot of environmental substitutions. the place to look out for in the u.s. is particularly the east coast. that will push up prices. gas and oil pull each other up. but ultimately, this is the fallout of energy transition, the fallout of western policymakers where you retire coal-fired plants before demand has fallen off. that is still years away. lisa: what is the correct broader narrative to view the recent increases in oil prices? is it what you were just talking about, the idea of the fallout from the mismatches here and energy policy and the stagflationary type trend, or is it the fact that demand is increasing at a time that seems

to be faster than supplies can come back online? amrita:amrita: of course, it is a company should've oath. yes, there's a lot of pent-up demand after covid, and if anything, covid has brought more demand to the market because people just want to get on, whether it be driving or flying. but the underlying narrative is absolutely about energy transition, and the choices policymakers will have to make because these are very stark choices that potentially need to be made as soon as this winter. are you going to have rolling blackouts? are you going to sacrifice economic growth? there is no investment in oil. that is why this is a structural move higher in oil prices, a structural move higher in gas prices. not saying gas will stay here, but it will remain much higher than it has been for the last 10 years. jonathan: thank you for weighing in, and great to catch up, as always. amrita sen of energy aspects on

this energy rally in europe has been phenomenal. we need to frame the climate change conference that takes place by the yuan at the end of the month. there's going to be a very uncomfortable conversation if these gas prices are still where they are. tom: i have been thinking about it. you are dead on. i was researching two days ago and energy conference in japan, i believe sponsored by platz. what they said in japan, they are going to say at the energy conference coming up. guess what? if you want climate change, that changes the price theory of what amrita sen studies. jonathan: what that has led to is disincentivize and investment in these -- is disincentivizing investment in these spaces, and now we are starting to see prices surge ever higher. the electorate has been on board

with this transition across most of europe, but when prices start to rocket, that is going to be quite comfortable. you can see where the tension is at the meet at the end of this month into november. lisa: there needs to be an honest discussion about what is feasible in terms of bringing up the wiener energy sources to rectify some of these mismatches. if you can't, what is the next best or least worse fossil fuel to use? there has to be a reality check in this process as we end up with much higher prices. jonathan: cop26 taking place in glasgow at the end of october. a brutal change in the past 24 hours. road trip. is that what you are about to say? [laughter] tom: it is beautiful in glasgow. we can see a collection of james whistler. jonathan: i can introduce you to a fried mars bar.

would you like that? tom: do they have a football team? jonathan: the glasgow rangers. get you up to speed. tom: road trip. [laughter] jonathan: by monday, tom keene will know more about scotland than i will. lisa: 1000%. [laughter] jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." economic data is seconds away. equity futures up .9%. your 10 year yield up one basis point to 1.5346. with economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: let's take a look at the numbers. 326,000, which is a decline from 362,000. the first time we have fallen in four weeks. the forecast was 348,000. good news from claims numbers ahead of the jobs report for the month. we will look for any kind of change we might see in the forecast for payrolls tomorrow.

we did see a change overnight as the adp numbers got incorporated into the release. we are now looking at 500,000 jobs created instead of 488,000. maybe this will be a reason for optimism. jonathan: the right kind of downside surprise on claims. yields higher by a basis point. equities are firmer, up .9% on the s&p. payrolls friday, 500,000 the estimate. michael: whether we get 500,000 or not, something that range will probably be good enough for the fed. they are looking for improvement over the 235,000 we got in august. one of the biggest changes is the drop in the number of total people getting jobless benefits. that has fallen in the week that followed the jobless week. it was 24 million a year ago.

we have fallen off as the jobless benefits were cut, maybe that forced people back into labor market. tom: i want to go back to first principles. what is the language of an asymmetric study like claims to the two reports we have seen tomorrow. how is a pro like you dovetail that together? michael: you look at the trend. the movement and direction is reasonably well correlated. if claims go down usually hiring goes up. it is hard to make a case in this situation because we have not been in this situation. we had 320 6000 initial jobless claims, which are celebrating is good news, yet that is higher than in any week between 2015 and when covid hit in march of 2020. we still have a lot of people out of work. jonathan: thank you as always.

jobless claims, that is the right kind of number. 326,000 against an estimate of 348,000. tom: it is one of the most elegant charts, it has a very nice trend even though we are impatient to see the trend much improved. we are impatient to speak with david page. he has government service in the united kingdom. thrilled mr. page could join us. let me give you an econ 101 question. is the glass half-full or half-empty? david: it depends where you're looking. i would say the moment it is getting to be half-empty. certainly the u.s. economy is going to expand a little short of 6% this year. broadly speaking the economies are picking up but there are gathering headwinds.

what we are seeing over the course of this month is a range of brinkmanship on different front and that is weighing on markets. i think there are still some issues. i think it is difficult to quantify the effects of the supply shocks coming in. broadly speaking, we are still seeing a relatively strong rebound to speed through into jobs. we are expected to see a decent number coming through there. tom: you mentioned what i want to go to come of trade balance numbers. shockingly grim for america. exports minus imports. how do you change your economic growth views forward given such export and import uncertainty? david: there is always going to be this pull from the u.s. what we have seen as domestic stimulus. we are hopeful the u.s. closes

all of its capacity by the end of this year. it's recovery is ahead of the rest of the world. when you have a domestic fueled growth coming through, you always be with a large amount of imports. the rest of the world is recovering. we are seeing a pickup in demand but not as much to see -- it was natural to see this net drag that will continue through next year. it should soften because we are expecting the rest of the world to follow through. lisa: as we prepare for tomorrow, for the labor market report, there is the ongoing conundrum, are we in a tight or loose labor market? what are you looking for from the numbers we see in november, in december, to determine the answer to that question. david: participation rates.

if you look at a chart, the theme that stands out is with all of the recovery, we are now 75% of the way recovered from the total jobless loss in 28 -- the participation has leveled off. there are a number of issues. the fact of the matter is they're not that many people getting back into the labor market and that is why you're getting this weird dichotomy. a lot lower level of employment than there was pretty covid, but there's a pickup in vacancies and high jobs earners. it is getting people back into the labor force. it is probably too optimistic to see a material change in this month's numbers tomorrow, but we will be hoping to see some effect coming through, partially

from the other employment benefits but much more so from the pickup in childcare. have already seen nursery picking up on that. all of those issues should start manifesting in the next couple of months. it is that trend that will be key. fundamentally if we do not see the labor force rise, that is the shock that will weigh on u.s. output and be difficult to the u.s. economy. continue to power ahead of those labor forces not stepping up. lisa: that is a different urban -- it a different interpretation than some people that would say the labor market is tight and that will lead to more wage increases, higher wage inflation that release to a more sustainable inflationary outlook for the united states. are you pushing back against that? david: what is keeping people

back is low wages. -- i do not think what is keeping people back is low lay just. there's been a fundamental shift with the pandemic. we have talked about issues like concerns for child care. you also flashed up the context of mismatches. there could be a more structural issue. it may be the people who left the labor force do not see the opportunity to come back for whatever reason, whether there is a skills mismatch or geography mismatch. wages will be a byproduct of what comes through, typically laborforce engagement improves as you go through the cycle and the stronger the economy runs -- that does typically come around at the same time as wages. coincidentally the two come together and i do not think people are staying out of labor market because of wages. tom: you are an insurance

company, you have huge medium and long-term liabilities. after the up floor -- after the uproar of the last couple of years are we back to a single digit world? are we back to where insurance companies have to reduce their actuarial assumption forward? david: in terms of life expectancy? tom: investment return. david: what we are likely to see is a little bit tougher. for the person on the street that will be interesting to talk to. we have gone through a period were economically it has been very bleak and yet returns have been very good. as we move further ahead, i think the headwinds will be there. part of that is monetary policy. part of what we are seeing is global central banks deliberately providing a boost which has fallen through.

as that process normalizes, when we look for some central banks reversing that, that will be a headwind for all the risk assets. it is not just we'll be starting to see long-term yields rise. jonathan: thank you. david page there. i made a bit of an error earlier. i talked about glasgow rangers without talking about celtics. there's another club called celtic. you do some research and work that out. coming up at 9:00, chris harvey of wells fargo security. chris, super bullish, looking through a move through 4800. tom: love it. damian sassower just publishing for bloomberg. the first -- the fears headwinds he sees. the sea of negativity.

lisa: he and i write letters. jonathan: is that the note? just going through the headlines. tom: don't let radio and tv no. jonathan: of 41 -- up 41 on the s&p. a lifting treasury yields off the back of a better-than-expected jobless claims number, the right kind of downside surprised. yields higher by a couple of basis points. talk about the lift in the equity market. 77, off the lows but still negative, we are down about $.43 to $77 and seven cents. tom: we will get a 19 print on the vix. jonathan: what you call it? the draw? from new york, i'm running. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

the senate is closing in on a deal that would avert a potentially devastating default by the u.s. for now. democrats appear to be on the verge of accepting a proposal by mitch mcconnell to push the debt limit into december. then congress would have to vote again to avoid a default. bloomberg has learned the biden administration is debating the fate of the imf managing director. she has been caught up in an ethics scandal from the time she was at the world bank's. the fund is reviewing an investigation conducted. pfizer and biontech have asked retailers to -- have asked the u.s. to approve emergency use authorization for children's age five to 11. the food and drug administration has promised to act quickly. royal dutch shell said the events of a turbulent first quarter will have seen a be impact on its financials. the company gained a first

glimpse of an unpredictable set of earnings. shall says -- shell says the effects of hurricane ida will end up costing $400 million. bnp paribas wants to warn investors -- bloomberg has learned the french bank is exploring a number of scenarios, including waiving its payout -- up from 50%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> anywhere around 350 or higher would take that box. given the fact that you have

some improvement when it comes to the health situation, some of the supply constraints easing, i think we should see the payroll report tomorrow clear that bar. tom: sarah house, wells fargo economics, looking at jobs day. claims i will call better than good, maybe not market moving but there it was. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. let's move from the economics to the market. it two our conversation with gina martin adams, we will squeeze it in right now. they did something in the opening paragraph, they said we will ignore 2020. we will do a compare and contrast back to pre-pandemic to fiscal year or q4 2019. is everybody going to do that this time around? gina: a lot of companies are because of a lot of investors are doing that. we saw that pop up in the beginning of this year when comps were so extremely easy.

50% to 90% growth on a year-over-year basis. investors are saying where is your pre-pandemic norm and how you compared to the pre-pandemic norm? we are finding the vast majority of s&p 500 companies are already well above the 2019 benchmark and are now starting to talk about what is our normalized revenue growth outlook, how we will contend with costs going forward? 2020 is in the past, what is our new normal? tom: i have a chart. it is the bull and the bearer of the street on earnings to the multiple compression expected. let's review this right now. do you believe we will see -- whatever the earnings number is, let's call that stability. within that ratio, p to e moves around. which way does it move? gina: pe probably removes lower, reflecting tighter monetary

policy and earnings growth. we have earnings growth for the s&p 500 of 13%. consensus thinks it is closer to 17%. pe contracts and then you get an 8% upside. lisa: how does the equity market pricing a taper or has it already done so? gina: it starts to price when taper happens. more importantly the risky point for equities is not the taper but the balance sheet stops rising. taper is a slower pace of asset purchases. the balance sheet is still rising. maybe it is accelerating at a slower pace than it has been in the past, but it is still net liquidity increase that generally benefits risk tolerance. is just less so than we have become accustomed to. the real risk point is when they

stop tapering. beyond that, the risky point becomes when the balance sheet starts contracting. we are still quite a ways from that point. i do not think investors have priced a ton of movement from the fed. instead they are starting to price more earnings realities and friction that has been developing with respect to stick your that infect -- than expected inflation. margin pressure emerging in the time when the economy moves from rapid recovery to expansion based. lisa: we have been flip-flopping with the narrative. we cannot decide which one to go with. there is an issue when you talk about downgrading expectations for earnings. have we already reached peak supply chain disruption concerns. are we already there? gina: i think we are really close. the problem we are contending with his persistence so peak supply chain disruption concern, we would've thought that

would've happened in the second quarter. it continued into the third quarter. it may continue into the fourth quarter. it is not getting worse but it is more persistent. that is what is driving a lot of the margin expectations the client across the analyst community. is still bad, why is it still bad? we thought it would start to ease. tom: 2020 hindsight, i think last quarter and the quarter before, a lot of people missed the mark. are we doing that this time around where within the earnings margin gloom we may miss the mark and it is more optimistic than we expect? gina: absolutely possible, especially we see easing in the energy pressures. what has happened over the course of last six weeks is a remarkable search noted -- in energy costs. if those clear faster than expected, that could be -- that

could give a tremendous amount of relief to forecast because that input cost is destruction and crating a lot of turmoil in hedging programs and no one knows how to hedge for this type of environment and does not necessarily want to under the presumption it eases going forward. if that eases we can have a much stronger upside. i would totally agree with you that revenue forecast are persistently far too pessimistic. that is really important consideration for a longer-term investor. one of the discussions we completely neglect his demand is much stronger over the course of last year and a half, much stronger than anticipated. topline growth has been much stronger than anticipated and that may persist. the question is how does that pair with stronger than anticipated supply chain constraints. tom: is this fun? lisa: existential thursday. gina: it is a wild ride for

sure. it has been a lot of fun to follow the market. it has been amazing to see how rapid the recovery was in response to the most prolific policy reaction any of us have ever seen in may ever see. tom: martin adams putting cakes of pabst blue ribbon beer to keep everybody going. gina: it has been a wild ride. we are back at it, back in the office and really enjoying the trip. tom: october 13 is the launch. jamie dimon will get on a conference call and start screaming. bloomberg intelligence, gina martin adams. do not go to cash, you want to participate if you want to play the game. much more from her through the week and her wonderful team at bloomberg intelligence. lisa, what are you looking at? lisa: i am watching the initial jobless claims. there is a good point made where

he is talking about the understanding behind these headline numbers. you have some jobs hard to fill, companies that are paying up, and others like the auto sector that are having temporary layoffs because they do not have the supplies to build the car. why it is so difficult to parse out the noise from the signal underneath the labor market data that is coming in better than expected. i think it is important to understand the nuances. tom: the labor market is coming in better than expected. this is separate from what we just talked about. it goes back to the fundamental debate day today, which is the two or the three america's. there are two conversations. lisa: to that point we have the lowest number of continuing claims back to the heart of the pandemic in march 2020. is this a good thing for the economy or a bad think meeting they have less disposable income. we will do a data check because jon ferro will not do it.

the vix comes in. looking for 19 print. 20.06. stay with us on radio, on television. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: upside down. there is the price action. equity futures up 40.

the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. the calm before payrolls. >> some of the pressure has been taken off. >> gas prices. >> all of that stuff is temporary. >> we may have seen a peak in some of the cycles. >> we have been through this many times. >> especially heading into payrolls. >> a data point tomorrow. >> we need to have some ease