caroline: from new york i'm caroline hyde. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. gina, we have a big day. equities finishing higher on the day. investors concerned come easing a little bit because of the debt deal in washington. everyone looking ahead to tomorrow, the september numbers coming out and the latest barometer of the economic coverage. might get us back to the halfway

point the fed has been looking at. we will watch the report and discuss key stress spots. we will hear from a couple folks including former head of the fbi see sheila bair, a veteran of the last economic crisis. let's start with where we are now. trying to dig our way out of a hole caused by the pandemic. caroline: do we believe wall street estimates anymore? i feel like we have -- for tomorrow, the consensus is 500,000. unemployment rate 5.1%. what is interesting is where the earnings pressure comes in, the inflationary pressure, average hourly earnings up, the estimates are up 0.4 percent. we will dig into this. karin kimbrough is with us. your perspective on 500,000, just about where you think it might be? karin: you are right. we are probably on the lower end

of that so under 500,000, but i can tell you we look forward to the day we have currently for october, looks even better. whatever we get tomorrow, i'm pretty optimistic about the following month. gina: you have interesting insights on linkedin given the postings and the jobs you are seeing. must be phenomenal. what are you seeing? have you seen anything change in the postings on how long they are on linkedin for instance, over the last 6-12 months? karin: covid has accelerated certain trends and in other ways, it has changed the structure of the labor market. one thing we did see at the beginning of the year was a huge increase in jobs available on our website. our platform now has double the number of jobs it had pre-pandemic, before the pandemic. we are seeing a massive uptick in the number of remote jobs. many more jobs offering remote,

in the past one in every 67 jobs was remote, no it is one in eight. we are seeing interest in these remote roles. that is what gets them interested, the opportunity to have flexibility. romaine: i was looking up the definition, a good descriptor of where we are at. you mentioned the ideas of people working from home. talk about some of the geographic changes we are seeing with regards to the recovery, where the jobs are maybe floating to and where they are not. karin: two ways, one is in terms of region across the u.s. and it -- the other is industry. in terms of region, lots of healthy job growth particularly in the south and the west. that is often where more states have opened up. on the other hand, when it comes to thinking about industries, what sectors are most -- we are seeing a pickup in education and retail, consumer goods and

transport. these are sectors where you would imagine that make sense. people are shopping more, buying online, feeling more optimistic. retail is opening up. i think -- i'm still on the more optimistic side about what will come in the next three months, but i agree tomorrow is a wildcard. we are hearing there is opportunity out there. up -- employers are looking, jobseekers are being choosy. caroline: this might be a hard one to know with the data you analyze but you talk about how childcare is one area where everyone is looking and we could see gains. there has been a run on teachers and not enough to be had. a lot of that is an issue of perhaps vaccines for people entering the industry. how much is the requirement to be vaccinated an issue? karin: we don't track that but we are increasingly seeing job postings on our platform that

specify what the requirements are on vaccination. that is something that has come on stream recently and more employers are adopting a stance explicitly where they are with vaccinations. there is kind of a run on education and childcare providers and health care providers. these are areas where it has been incredibly hard to hire as much as employers want and a lot of that has to do with, these are face-to-face jobs where people are taking on more risk in a world where some people are vaccinated and some aren't. maybe they shy away from those jobs or expecting more salary to compensate. gina: one of the things we have been tracking his how difficult it is for employers to find the right labor. and to source talent. you mentioned talent is being relatively selective, maybe not jumping at the first job. have you seen a change in the amount of time that a posting is

listed over the course of the last several weeks? have we seen any movement or is it still, jobs are sitting out there, people are extremely selective and no change at all? karin: there has been a change. there has been actually a shortening in what we call the time to hire. from the time the job seeker comes on and starts to look to the time when they say i've got a job, i'm starting this month, that hasecreased over the most recent i would say 6-8 months. definitely because employers are more open-minded about -- and jobseekers are being more choosy about jobs, the matching function between employers and employees have gotten more efficient. people aren't just applying for everything, they are applying for what they want. they have had 18 months to think about this and they are voting with their feet to only go for the jobs they think are better

than where they are now. romaine: you mentioned where the jobs gains give us with regards to pre-pandemic levels, getting us back to half that gap. i want to get your perspective from your previous roles, particularly at the fed. during the last big financial crisis in this country, i want to ask you about the policy prescriptions you are seeing being put in place today right now to sort of get us through this crisis and whether you think that will be enough to not only get us back to pre-pandemic levels with the rise in economic activity, but whether we will avoid some of the mistakes we made coming out of the global financial crisis. karin: i think we will avoid some of the mistakes we made in the past. i would say when i say mistakes, i think it is learning. the fed, i was there during the last crisis and i think they did the best they possibly could with what information they had at the time.

in this case, policy being a little more in favor of letting the employment rate run a bit lower, it is going to give more time i think for people who historically haven't achieved a full labor market recovery from past recessions. in plain english, typically when you look at the black and white unemployment rate come over the cycle there -- that is usually twice as high. the longer and stronger the economy becomes, the more time and opportunity black unemployment rate has to converge with a lower white unemployment rate. i think the longer they let this run a little bit strong in terms of a strong labor market, the more chance you have for bringing everybody into enjoying the gains of a recovery. the labor market is in recovery mode. we are probably 75% of the way through in terms of regaining

jobs lost and getting people back working. there is still more to go and it is the last 25% that will be hard. it will take some time. romaine: a wealth of knowledge from karin kimbrough, chief economist at linkedin. thank you for your time. we will continue this conversation, she was there during the last crisis and we will talk to someone a little later was there ring the last crisis, sheila bair. we will talk about the holiday season, a time when many retailers start hiring like crazy. we will talk about the labor shortage and how companies like amazon will deal with that this holiday season. that is next on bloomberg. ♪

caroline: today is a focus on labor ahead of tomorrow's job report. hiring surged in september, gearing up for the holidays. one of the trends we have noticed, the share of seasonable -- seasonal jobs, especially training levels before 2019 and 2020. this shows how much seasonal jobs per million are down in the yellow line, versus what we saw in 2019 and 2020. are people trying to do what they can with what they have got? romaine: i don't know. i'm a little worried. we had some big disruptions the last couple years because of the pandemic but you wonder if we will be facing that once again particularly with amazon. let's bring in spencer who covers amazon who covers a -- in the pacific northwest. you normally see amazon hiring, getting everyone onto the trucks and warehouses.

are they doing that this year? >> they are having a hard time. everybody is having a hard time hiring. amazon is no exception. the small businesses that make deliveries for amazon are no exception. they will hire anyone who can breathe. that is your qualification at this point. i'm serious. the signs are everywhere, whether it is fast food, retail, or e-commerce and logistics delivery, they are all really struggling. one thing, if we look back, remember a few years ago amazon made a pledge about $15 per hour. that is like your minimum wage right now. lots of fast food joints are paying that and a lot of these companies are struggling with how can we differentiate, other than raising pay, when you have companies like walmart and target offering college, another trick amazon pulled out was, let's advertise we don't screen for marijuana use. try to appeal to potheads and

make the labor pool a little bigger than we were otherwise recruiting. they are pulling out a lot of tricks. everyone was driving wages up, up, up. gina: what is the critical point where they have to cave and start increasing wages? they are trying everything under the sun to attract employees. at some point, if they don't have enough, they risk doing business. is that point october 30, november 15? as we get closer to the holidays there has to be a point where they say, maybe we need to increase wages if they can't fill the jobs they have available. >> that is a great point. there are other things besides wage increases. we are seeing signing bonuses and retention bonuses. it is not just a matter of getting new bodies in the door and it is about keeping the bodies we have. lots of these places have high turnover. you will see not just hiring

bonuses to get new people, you will see retention bonuses to say, stick with us through the holidays erie of the retention bonuses are particularly important right now because someone might jump ship or an extra one dollar per hour across the street. the retention bonuses help keep people who are already trained. caroline: building loyalty. if you can breathe, you can get a job at amazon. thanks, spencer. coming up on the we speak to sheila bair about the jobs report. she has a take on the federal reserve at the moment and its actions, and a bit of regulation. we will talk crypto. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: we have been focused on the september payrolls report. it is expected to show strong growth in terms of economic recovery. joining us now is someone who has overseen the economic coverage in previous downturns. former fbi see chaired sheila bair is a senior fellow at the center for financial disability -- financial -- >> i'm wondering what you think of this upcoming jobs report and the position it puts fed chair powell in when it comes to the moves they make to prop up the economy. sheila: i think it will be a strong jobs report. that is good news. that does increase the argument for taper, continued tightening, and i think this is going to be unpopular with progressives and some in the biden

administration. the overall good news is, we want a strong economy, but also that increases inflationary risk and increases the need to taper. caroline: there is a lot complicating whether powell will be reinstated. the trading activity that has gone on in some of those beneath him, what you make of that? sheila: i think it is troubling that as near as i can tell, the rules were probably too loose. i think the index funds, preplanned, different from the usual stock trading. the rule should have been tighter given the massive impact, any decision by the fed has had on the economy. any senior fed official should have their investments in a blind trust. i think going forward, that would be the best rule. i do think some good people were

caught in this. eric is someone i have respect for. those rules were loose and they were following the rules. bad judgment, but let it -- let's get it fixed going forward and put investments in a blind trust while they have a position at the fed. romaine: let's turn to the banking sector. we were talking earlier about stable coins, tether and the currency that may or may not be backing some of these coins. i'm curious about regulation of this industry, whether it comes and what it will look like if it does come. sheila: we need it sooner than later. especially stable coins, i'm on the board of a company that has a stable coin. it takes the fiat currency for the stable coin and puts it in an insured fdic deposit so it is

stable. the underlying asset is stable. not all stable coin is sure rulers do that -- issuers do that. tether doesn't do that. so the investor protection issues, transparency issues, and it could be a systemic problem. it is following the same model we saw with prime money funds, which had to be bailed out twice and we don't want stable coins to evolve into that market. there is an immediate need for investor protections and transparency around stable coins. i have written a piece suggesting the fcc is probably better equipped to do that. there are proposals to let stable coin issuers be banks. that doesn't address the problem. it might make it worse. the fbi insurance and discount lending -- sonali: you work with a stable coin country -- company.

the thing is, the idea of a run on the bank type of risk, we have a huge story on tether today and the funds underlying tether. what real risk and how soon can we see the risks surface in the market? is this something that is intangible and far off or realistic? sheila: i think it is realistic from an investor perspective. heather is big but i don't know if it is big enough to create a systemic problem, but it could if there was a run on tether. it could help a lot of individuals invest -- individual investors who have bought tether. i'm on the board of a company, i don't speak for them or work for them, i provide board oversight but as far as oversight, they have kept investments into fbi see -- fdic insured deposits.

tether doesn't do that. at minimum, thank you for doing a report because information needs to get out to the public to understand that is not what tether does. there is not sufficient transparency. they invest in lots of volatile assets. these aren't stable, which they should be if they are going to back stable coin. caroline: this comes down to financial literacy to a certain extent. some of the reporting about tether, people in the crypto sphere, powerful people, aren't digging too much on tether but it is too important. you are a woman who is focused on financial literacy. you write kids books, you have anyone out. -- a new one out. how much is the u.s. shining a light on it? sheila: we do a terrible job of financial education in the u.s. and globally, it is a problem. i think you need a combination of strong regulations, investor

protections, you need to give people the skills to understand financial basics and protect themselves. i think that needs to start at an early age. kids get money at an early age. what it is, what impulse buying is, what it means to take out a loan, those are basics kids need to learn early and have reinforced. one reason i write children's books on those themes is because parents read the books to their kids to i'm hoping i reach parents, as well, who may need financial skills. the government can't do it by themselves. we need a well educated populace and we don't have that. caroline: a prolific writer. sheila bair, stay well. former fbi see chair -- fdic chair. romaine: you didn't ask about the topic. it was on by now, pay later schemes.

i flipped through this. it is very timely. caroline: a couple companies we have keep -- we have been keeping a close eye on, gina, you keep us honest. where do you see tomorrow, what are the key bits of literacy you will be using to dig into the numbers? gina: i don't know if there will be much literacy behind my digging. i spent enough time as an economist to know details matter in the jobs report. it is critical to watch whether or not wages are starting to overcome the pace of wage growth and the pace of revenue growth. that is problematic for the s&p 500. romaine: 0.4% month over month, 0.6% year-over-year. at that level, even at the higher level, the white color, wages going up. caroline: that is what we want to dig into.

that is what is so great, karin at linkedin talking about where we are seeing it. we look forward to that number, 8:30 a.m. romaine: have a great evening, everyone. you are watching bloomberg. ♪

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