>> the labor market is tightening. >> there are not that many people coming back into the labor market. >> you would have to have a pretty catastrophic payrolls figure for the fed to change the timeline. >> tapering is not tightening. >> you need you see a reasonably good report. does not need to be a knockout. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the payrolls report 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. payrolls just around the corner. tom: unchanged from the last payrolls report ago?

no, from that 1.12% level to go to 1.50%, that is different than what we saw a week ago. jonathan: the question is a simple one. what gets it done for the fed? we caught up with thomas caustic of picked at -- thomas of pictet this morning. 700000 and see estimate out of morgan stanley. lisa: how much does this bleed into inflationary outlooks, and how much does this move the fed's needle, given that they plan on tapering come november? jonathan: they want to hold your hand, tom. they want to gradually get you there. it looks like they decided at the last meeting.

do you think anything can derail that? tom: i think they are completely data dependent. a limbs and her -- ellen zentner made it very clear they see a better q3. but they will look at the data, not just one statistic that we are going to bandy about 8:30 this morning. jonathan: the final word before we all go home. lisa: which data points? you can pick the data to fit your narrative, as you have pointed out so many times. jonathan: any other one-liners, tom? tom: wages. jonathan: futures positive 0.1%. tom: let's start the show. jonathan: euro-dollar from her -- euro-dollar firmer. crude, $78.85 now. your equity market treading

water going into this one. lisa: this is really the question. how much does it take to change the needle in equity markets, and bond markets? 8:00 a.m., september payrolls. the expectation is for 500,000. bloomberg economics estimates above where ellen zentner is. the question is, how much does this move the needle for the unemployment rate? how much does this move the needle for participation, and how much does this move spec for fed policy? 10:00 a.m., labor secretary marty walsh speaking with our very own jonathan ferro. he's going to be speaking about what to expect with how sticky wage pressures are, how to create a virtual wage increase spiral because it takes more than one, two, three years of increases in wages before we get that. at 11:30 am, we hear from president biden, busy on absolutely everything right now. he wants to talk about how great

the labor market is, but that it still needs work. he will try to push forward his agenda and give us a sense of how much of a reprieve we got with the geeking of the can to december -- the kicking of the can to december. tom: i think this is underrated. we have had a vix go from near 25 down onto 20 in the last number of days -- down under 20 in the last number of days. it is a pre-payroll draw up. and by the politics. jonathan: kicking the can to december 3 helped that as well. tom: we are all being fed analysts instead of looking at the markets, which are very constructive. jonathan: can we get to the queen of rates? priya misra joining us now, td securities global head of rate strategy. what gets it done for the fed? priya: i think it is a really low bar for the fed not to taper.

i think anything above zero, the fed is going to taper. they've told us they start in november. i think they will end by the middle of next year. i think the market has essentially priced in the start and largely the end of taper. jonathan: what does this mean for the market if we know it means little for the fed? priya: i don't think it means a whole lot. the labor market is recovering. i think people are going to look for wages, look for labor force participation. we think it is too early for labor force participation to rise. there's a lot of research that suggests it is much later when that labor force participation rises, so people are going to this stagflation theme or the idea that the market is tight. i think people are going to look at the wage number. there's a lot of compositional effects in that. that is going to force the fed's hand. the fed is going to look at

supply chain, labor market constraints, energy prices going up, which hurts the consumer. we need to hear from the fed. there is an important fed reaction function here. it is not about tapering. they have to tell us about hikes , have they change their idea of transitory. that's what people will be looking for, but i think we are talking about labor force participation for many months. lisa: what is the market seeing now that expectations have risen? priya: i think the market is looking at the word transitory in a bit of english-language cents. transitory was supposed to be three months, six months. your we are almost a year later. i think the market is saying this is not transitory. at some point this is going to call the fed's bluff and they will be forced to come in. we've moved the timing cycle much sooner.

they can absolutely start to hike, but if inflation remains high because there has been a structural impact of covid on inflation, i do understand why long-run inflation expeditions are higher. i struggle with the fed reaction function that is essentially getting priced in. lisa: let's talk about how to read different combinations of reports. thomas costerg was expecting a zero print. is this a stagflationary type scenario? priya: i think zero is not priced in. if we get zero, i would say maybe that does make the fed delay. i don't think they would necessarily say one report, let's take tapering off the table, but the concern the market has is the economy is slowing. there were some any positive

factors for the consumer. you had all that fiscal stimulus . you had the reopening. zero would imply that the labor market has slowed. this whole stagflation thing we all talk about, that doesn't make sense. but i think it is going to certainly get a lot more traction. jonathan: let's get to the bottom line for you. people are talking about a rate hike in 2020 do. think that conversation belongs in the back half of 2023. priya: i think it is inflation, but also the labor market. we do have inflation decelerating. a lot of these supply chain issues at some point resolve, and i don't think the fed is going to change their definition of transitory. i think they think transitory is driven by persistent factors. supply chain by definition should at some point resolve, so we have inflation decelerating. we have sub 2% pce by the middle

of next year. i think the fed is very serious about maximum employment and playing an inclusive labor market recovery. how do you get that inclusive labor market recovery until we get people back into the labor force? that tends to happen a little late, so we are expecting that to happen next year and really build into 2023. at that point, they will start to say they have reached that inclusive recovery. tom: i want to go to what i believe is the ultimate modern central-bank behavior worldwide, and that is the collective memory of the bank of japan twice, october of 2000 and october of 2006, getting it wrong, where they raised rates and had to turn around and bring them back down. is that emotion there on this jobs day for chairman powell? priya: i don't think the fed is there yet, that they are itching

to hike. i do think that the inflation numbers have spooked them. one of the reasons why they have had such a low bar to taper is the inflation number. i think in their mind, they are already taking that step. but to go further to hike, and i would add ecb to that, the rate hike in 2008 because of energy prices, i think this is all there in the fed's mind. unless it is a sign of a wage price spiral, which is why i'm a little concerned if the wage number is high, if we do start to see prices show up in long-run inflation expectations or wages, i think that is going to force the fed's hand, and we are not seeing signs of that at all. jonathan: wonderful as always. great to catch up with you on this payrolls friday. priya misra of td securities basically making the argument that the rate hike debate is not have a place in 2022. it belongs somewhere in the backend of 2023. a recent interview with

bloomberg news really eliminated the fears at the moment. "six months ago, the risk is that the fed would be slower to raise rates. now the risk is that they would be quicker to hike if the inflationary pressure proves to be more persistent than they thought. that is the fear in this market at the moment. tom: i can't get there, jon. they are so tentative. i am with priya. my x axis is way out. jonathan: on this payrolls friday, one hour and 19 minutes away from a payrolls report, with a median estimate of 500000 and a range as wide as ever. equity futures up four, advancing 0.1% on the s&p. adding some weight to this week's weekly gain on the benchmark. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. is one step closer to avoiding a potentially disastrous payment default for now. the senate passed a bill that raises the debt limit through december 3. the measure goes to the house, which is expected to approve it next week. democrats in congress are starting to discuss how to make cuts to president biden's sweeping social spending bill. the president originally proposed a 3.5 trillion dollar outline. now he is will and to go down to $2 trillion. senator joe manchin says he could only support $1.5 trillion. senate majority leader chuck schumer is hoping a deal can be reached by the end of october. two journalists have been awarded the nobel peace prize. they were honored for what was called their courageous fight for freedom of expression. past nobel laureates include nelson mandela and the world food program. a key hurdle has been removed on the past two an unprecedented deal for multinationals. ireland will abandon its one

point 5% tax and push for a floor of 15% on corporate profits. the oecd is hosting a crucial meeting on taxes for one hoarded -- for 140 countries. taiwan semiconductor manufacturing rose to a record. that explains how the company is benefiting from the manufacture of a product. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ sen. schumer: we have reached agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early december, and it is our hope we can get

this done a soon as today. sen. mcconnell: the pathway our colleagues have accepted the spare the american people any near-term crisis. jonathan: senate majority leader chuck schumer and minority leader mitch mcconnell. we will see them both again sometime before december 3 to talk about the same thing all over again. on this payrolls friday, up five on the s&p. we advance by a little more than 0.1 percent. yields higher by a basis point to 1.5838% on tends. let's call it $79 on wti. tom: we are in the pre-payroll churn. jonathan: i agree. tom: i love what ira jersey said. "happy payrolls friday." jonathan: happy payrolls friday to you, tom. is it a happy one for you? tom: before we get to mario

parker, you were talking about apple picking assuming it was a tree. jonathan: you were singing funds. tom: no, afterthought lost in airpods, so we are going down to the fifth avenue store and will be apple picking at the apple store. tom: are you getting the pods or a phone? tom: you get the pods, but you don't know what you get after that. lisa: this is so relatable. jonathan: so the $200 trip turns into a $1200 trip. tom: you nailed it. jonathan: this is why we have tom on the show. it is so relatable for so many people. [laughter] tom: there we are. let's get to mario parker in washington, usually from the lawn of the white house, but today from our studios in new york, driving our political coverage in washington. december 3, there's going to be a november 3, and and there's a day by day tick. what do you presume will be the body language?

mario: we heard a lot of partisan sniping over the last couple of weeks, if past is prologue at all. last night, senator schumer, in passing the bill to keep the debt ceiling in place, he kind of rattled some feathers across the aisle, so not sure if republicans are going to be as cooperative going forward. tom: but then there's republicans versus republicans. we don't need to get into the weeds right now, but i don't understand how republicans coalesce around their leader on november 3 or november 13. mario: you saw some of that last night with senator ted cruz releasing a bitter statement toward mcconnell, former president trump, who looms large

over such things, tried to whip republicans against the bill. senator mcconnell is making the bet that he can show the american people there is some type of bipartisanship here in washington, d.c. and tried to get a little bit of good faith and goodwill from constituents. lisa: in the meantime, 8:30 am, we get the payrolls report. we enter the spin cycle as all the politicians take the data and try to make it fit the narrative they want. how political has inflation become in terms of factoring into this debate about fiscal spending, and how closely our washington, d.c. officials watching this data? mario: you make a great point. republicans see this as a cudgel with which to beat the biden adminstration democrats with the 2022 midterms looming. inflation has become a big topic of concern. that is something that is a kitchen table issue, something people can wrap their heads around.

they know if they are paying more for grocery or gasoline or some other type of commodity, that makes it an easy talking point for republicans, the longer this inflation persists. lisa: steve mnuchin joined our bloomberg invest conference this week. he was saying that he is very worried that fiscal spending could cause the inflation rate to spike. this is due to spending, not the tax cuts president trump at in-place under his tenure. what kind of research is being put out as to the main driver behind the widening deficit and what we should do fiscally? mario: this does no favors when analysts and strategists and pollsters are looking at president biden's spending bill. this does him no favors at all because they are saying it could exacerbate inflation, so this is a cudgel for his opponents, but also something that is giving people within his own party pause, the moderates he has to

convince to jump on board. look at the spending. tom: what is the spin of the sunday talk shows? mario: we will see republicans try to say that they acted in good faith, even though we know, as you pointed out, that we will be doing this dance again come december 3. so they will be trying to show voters again that they try to play ball with democrats, and also that democrats are trying to tax-and-spend exorbitantly as well. democrats will say they are advancing the president's agenda. jonathan: i feel for you, buddy. you've got to do this all again before christmas. right into the new year. mario parker a bloomberg. thank you, sir. tom: you know what his record was last year?

mario went to 14 consecutive days of parties. that is how washington works. jonathan: that's how he got the promotion. [laughter] we are going to we doing this again and again. tom: do you want the factoid of the day? jonathan: give it to me. tom: we get tons of research. peter writes wonderfully acute notes. he said used cars, the manheim used vehicle index, has gone up to a new high. it went up and it rolled over. it has gone back up to a new high, up 27% year-over-year. i think it is the status of the day because everybody out there, the transitory crew is like, it is all going to roll over and go away. is it? jonathan: day by day, you seem to be getting more and more annoyed by the transitory crew. tom: remember v-shaped? jonathan: i remember v-shaped. do you remember when it was

february 2020, and v-shaped was just china will recover quickly, and then v-shaped turned into something else? lisa: if you look at car prices, energy prices, this is why people are using the s word, stagflation versus transitory. but the question of the higher costs people are paying for it, their salaries have not gone up quickly enough. you look at this, and that feeds into the transitory debate simply because at some point, people won't be spending as much, and there will be a slowdown. jonathan: more often than not, things turn out to be ok. tom: jon, thank you. 100%. lisa: do they? [laughter] tom: yes, lisa. jonathan: i take so much abuse for that. i don't know why. it doesn't get the clicks, tom. tom: that's why we are doing this. that is why we invented the show. while we are on break, i am looking at the m!, st --

apathy -- at the m1, m2, and m3 data. you don't even know what i am talking about. jonathan: often that is the case. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: payrolls 60 minutes away. this program well and truly on the rails. lisa: what kind of rails? jonathan: skewed ones come up bent all over the place. 500,000 the median, zero at the other end. thomas costerg's call, 700k. on the nasdaq, we advanced by 0.15%. on the russell, a bit of outperformance, i 0.4%. here's the bond market going into the call. twos, tens and 30's. tens up, 30's up a little bit. on .58% -- 1.58%.

it's get to foreign exchange. want to get to euro-dollar. if you take it over the year, i think it is really important to recognize that the high for euro-dollar came january 6 at one dollar 20 six cents. the first phase of dollar strength was driven by so-called american exceptionalism, the prospect of higher real rates, and an economy that was rapidly accelerating. the second phase of dollar strength against the euro, according to get, and i agree, is driven by european weakness. up on the session, but more recently, it has been brutal for euro-dollar. have a look at the data relative to expectations. the surprise indexes for europe deeply negative, just capturing

that story. we have had disappointment after disappointment. tom: with their labor scripture, the asymmetric feel of what happens after hydrocarbons go up. what is it, $200 a barrel on whatever net gas you look at? these are huge numbers. jonathan: the equivalent of $200, if that is where you are pulling that number from. euro-dollar, $1.1559. that's your cross asset price action. let's get you some single name movers this morning and say good morning to romaine. romaine: a big story this morning and the past few weeks has been about these supply chain issues here. it is pretty much the only thing that could potentially get in the way of the rally, or the rebound rally, we are starting to see in stocks. taiwan semi came out with earnings overnight. they were phenomenal.

a record quarter. they made it clear that supply chain issues are really affecting it. they mentioned supplies with apple, supplies with some of their other companies in the automotive space, they don't have the capacity to meet some of these issues. they've had to downshift to less profitable chips for the automakers in order to meet some of the contractual obligations. that is putting a little pressure on the adrs in the u.s. we got earnings out of a company called aac, based over in hong kong. a lot of the audio components that go into your iphone and samsung phones, as well as lenovo computers. the company said the same thing. cost to source its equipment is so high right now that it is leading to a much less profitable picture. that is putting a lot of pressure on some of the chip stocks in the u.s. tesla yesterday, elon musk having his investors annual shareholder meeting, talking about supply chain constraints. he thinks he can still maintain that 50% growth rate, but made

it clear the one thing standing between that goal right now is getting enough of the chips he needs. these supply chain issues are lightly going to persist all the way through 2022 and probably into 2023. we got earnings out of oshkosh, the maker of fire trucks and military equipment. we just can't get the parts to make what we need here. companies saying the demand is there forget they just can't necessarily meet it because of supply chain constraints. at wells fargo, downgrading fastenal. it can't get the things that it needs. home depot, a downgrade as well to similar issues. this is the big story driving most of the price action this morning. tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much. the jobs report now less than an hour away. when we invented "surveillance, it was about collegial differences of opinion -- invented "surveillance," it was

about collegial differences of opinion. ellen's and mayor -- ellen zentner reaffirmed overnight that her q3 tepidness, bring it up a little bit. why the enthusiasm right now? what is the nuance that matters for you this jobs day? ellen: i think what i want to see and what i think everyone should be focused on is do we get more supply of labor, and does that start to come through in september. we talk about supply constraints. labor is a huge issue, or the lack thereof in the u.s. over the fall, we should see the labor force participation rate picking up. i don't think today's report is going to answer the question of whether or not we will get at labor supply in the fall, but we should start to see the needle moving on that. throughout the fall, we should continue to see that pickup. if we don't get a bump in labor

supply, even on a confluence of factors like ending unemployment benefits and schools reopening and the like, i think we should start to have some real concerns that these labor shortages are going to last much longer, but much more upside pressure on wages, and force companies into difficult decisions. my hope is those decisions are to invest more through capital deepening, which will lead to higher rates of productivity and higher profits, but companies could also choose to shrink and not hire as much. but i think the fall these next few months will determine what track we are on. jonathan: this might sound counterintuitive, but at 8:30 eastern time, if wages come in a bit, could you see that is good news? ellen: here's why we could see in undershooting in wage growth in this particular report. one of the biggest drivers of the upside we see in september and why we are above consensus

is because there was an outsized lack of jobs in leisure and hospitality that looks like an anomaly in august. expect some of that to come back up roughly 200,000 or more. you are bringing low-wage workers back, it creates this compositional effect where you are dragging down average wages, so if we get an undershooting wage growth, it is probably going to be accompanied by big job gains in those low-wage sectors. lisa: you have been one of the most accurate forecasters when it comes to the jobs numbers. what high-frequency data are you looking at for the upside surprise you are expecting in the numbers we get in about 90 minute -- 50 minutes time? lisa: -- ellen: some of it is the daily data we get on mobility indicators, what is

moving and shaking. we parse consumer confidence weekly. we look at continuing claims and jobless claims, although it has been a very difficult environment. if economists are right, it is probably an accident. we see people dropping off the federal government program as the program was expiring, but we are also seeing evidence they are trying to roll onto some of the state programs. if you are busy still trying to put in a jobless claim, are you also busy out for a job? that is where some of the uncertainty is. there's plenty of high-frequency data and other statistical nuances that telus we are likely to see that bigger jobs number today. jonathan: if economists were right, it is probably an accident. that is the line of the week. just one more question off the back of that. if it is that difficult to call the data, how difficult is it to forecast and predict fed policy? ellen: right now it is going to be pretty easy because tapering

is a train. i think chair powell already set up for possible disappointment. he sees the daily data from adp. nila richardson, their chief economist there, an excellent colleague of mine, i think you probably saw incoming data that the fed staff presented to him at the september meeting, and that is why he said he only needs to see a decent number in order for tapering to be on track. tom: i am going to pin you down. what is your decent number? ellen: i think a decent number is something with a + in front of it. tom: oh man. she's ready for public service. [laughter] jonathan: a lot of people agree, it just has to be something above zero and we get it done. is that your view? ellen: yeah. the fed has given us all the information we need. so we can already tell how much they are going to draw down, over what time frame. the market is able to price it in. there's very little guesswork left.

if we don't get the pickup and supply over the fall, if job gains start to be more sluggish as we move into next year, that is not about tapering. that is about windows the fed eventually get to hike rates. now that tapering is a train, we are not talking about fed policy for some time. i think rate hikes are still quite a ways off. jonathan: i have been looking forward to catching up with you all morning. thank you, as always. ellens under -- ellen zentner looking for 700,000. zero plus get it done on november 3. that is how low the bar is for the fed. tom: within the literature we look at, that level could be 200,000, 300,000, depending on who you talk to. i think we are making it up as we go. jonathan: without a doubt, but that view is in line with thomas costerg of pictet.

ultimately they agree on the same thing. if it is zero plus, the light stays green for the federal reserve. lisa: they don't still feel comfortable buying $120 billion of bonds every month with where we are as inflationary rates. a listener saying, "as you know, school is not really open. moms are still shackled." she things it needs to be mentioned more often. these are the frictions still underlying the market. jonathan: it is personal. i can feel it. lisa: yes, 100%. [laughter] jonathan: i know it is. you have stayed on top of the story. lisa: it is a big deal. jonathan: i totally get it. that is why you are going to keep talking about it. it is important. equities up four on the s&p. yields unchanged at 1.58% on tens. your payrolls report is about 49 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in the battle to avert a first-ever roll default, the senate has kicked the can down the road. the senate voted to raise the debt limit through early december. the house is expected to pass a measure that will delay the fight for two months. a nuclear powered submarine has struck an object while some birds and the indo pacific region. according to the u.s. naval institute, the incident happened in the south china sea. the navy says the submarine remains in a safe and stable condition. china claims almost the entire south china sea as its own. china has fined a food delivery giant for breaking antimonopoly regulations. it is meant to ensure the rights of restaurant partners and delivery drivers.

india has ended decades of trying to privatize its money-losing flagship airlines. tata was selected as the winning bidder for air india. tata will get more than 100 planes and lucrative landing and parking spots all around the world. it is a sign of strains from a shortage of workers in the u.k. persisting. at the same time, the pool of available workers dropped at almost the sharpest rate in 24 years of data collection. the findings will add to inflationary pressures that a ringing alarm bells at the bank of england. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> stocks arguably can sustain

these high multiples because of quantitative easing, and until that reverses, and we don't think that will happen anytime soon, we will pay a lot more attention to their earnings front. jonathan: bnp paribas chief strategist out of london. on this payrolls friday, that data drops in 42 minutes. in the bond market, yields unchanged at 1.5743%. the equity market positive 0.1%. quote of this morning from ellen zentner of morgan stanley. if economists were right, it was probably an accident. that feels about right for this year for sure. tom: i would say my quote of this morning is what you said. things work out. with the gloom we have had over the last days and weeks, what you said is equally important as something we will watch into this jobs report. usually with david wilson, we tried out a chart. david wilson out front on

reading the literature of the street and all those followed by others, including the must-read effort of zero hedge. zero hedge published the wonderful and lengthy thoughts, and this time, brilliant on the faang stocks. dave: basically, analysts are too pessimistic. it is not just the big five of the market. it is more broadly the s&p 500. we have seen that the last four quarters, companies being well above analyst average earnings estimates. tom: what is the single why he says tom keene is wrong on amazon? david: the way he figures it, as he looked across those big five companies, he saw that in each case, analysts are expecting earnings-per-share to be down in

the latest quarter from the previous quarter. we tend to look at your ago results when we make these kinds of comparisons, but he is looking at quarter to quarter sequentially, basically saying there's too much pessimism here about these companies and their business. tom: that is a good reason to go to lisa abramowicz. lisa: if profits are good at these companies, does that mean the economy is doing well or we are still in the zone of slow growth and disproportionate corporate profits at a time when the labor market still hasn't fully recovered? david: that will be the question that gets answered as we go through third-quarter results. we know these kinds of companies have been at the forefront in terms of growth, and that is why, at least in part, the market has held up the way it has. but really at this point, it is just a matter of highlighting these five stocks as a way to make the bigger point about greater pessimism than is warranted on the part of analysts, and we see that really

ever since the stock market started coming out from under that bear market last year. lisa: the reason why i bring this up, taking a bigger step back, there is this conundrum as we talk about corporate profits, that it hinges on not that high of a wage hike, smaller footprints of the ploy meant when we talk about big tech companies. how does that dovetail into corporations and their stock price being divorced from the underlying economic momentum? david: you could kind of take that argument and turn it on its head a bit because we have seen labor costs go up, and costs for supplies and transportation. in a lot of cases, you have seen companies be able to cover those costs and then some eerie at levi strauss, which was out with results this week, a perfect example of that. they have managed to hedge their cotton costs looking through their next fiscal year, so they

put themselves in a position where the surge in cotton prices isn't going to hurt them. so it is those kinds of moves that have been beneficial. tom: at the margin, is amazon and their ilk the marginal jobs center? they are popping $17, 18 dollars an hour, and talking on hundred thousand there, 50,000 here job formation. are those faang stocks the wage center in america right now? david: you could focus specifically on amazon simply because they are now one of the largest u.s. employers, and with their growth rate, they are in a position where they are setting up new warehouses, they need workers for the warehouses, so you go argue that amazon is to sink -- is distinct to some extent from these relatively large companies. as much as we talk about them as a group, they are distinct businesses, and amazon in

particular being an online retailer affects the jobs picture for that company. tom: thank you. this has been brilliant. they've got a staff as large as the tots, 1.33 5 million employed at amazon. jonathan: walmart, 2.2 million. we are getting closer. i don't think anyone would be surprised if it was amazon on top in years to come. for a lit a low bit more perspective, facebook, i think 60,000. when we talk about these tech plays, i know it annoys you as well, lisa, these companies are radically different in terms of what they do and how they are staffed. lisa: a lot of people saying amazon very much a retail company. however, they do have aws that provides a significant portion of their revenues. these are disparate stories, and we have seen the stocks diverge which is why people are getting optimistic that there is discretion in equity markets, so that will be a protection going forward. jonathan:, don -- amazon has

been negative on the year. it is pretty much dead flat for the year so far. tom: david wilson had that great bar chart. on radio, it was a negative bar chart with amazon decisively more negative on the earnings markdown. same idea. jonathan: we are positive 1.4%. lisa, i think this was the morgan stanley call more recently on amazon. the price target cut more recently. they are still bullish, but the price target cut was off the back of some of these labor market jitters. lisa: the idea they will have to pay more to some of their above one million employees, and the fact that this will cut into their bottom line, and then you get the likes of facebook with 60,000 some employees, they don't have the same pressures. tom: they are going to pay more, and 82.7 percent is going to go back into buying on amazon. jonathan: it is true, tom. what did jeff bezos say after that nice little rocket trip? what did he say in news conference?

i would like to thank the staff and the customers for helping to make this happen. we joked about a lack of self-awareness a little bit earlier on in the program. we've got a kindred spirit there. tom: afterthought has my amazon login. you should see the makeup coming in. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> i think there's a temporary pause in the services sector which could be reflected in this payrolls report. >> even a relatively low print would be consistent with a pretty strong labor market. >> you would have to have a pretty catastrophic payrolls figure for the fed to change the timeline it has laid out. >> i think it is a really low bar for the fed not to taper, so i think anything above zero, the fed is going to taper. >> if economists are right, it is probably an accident. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jobs day, m