manus: good morning from our middle east at headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny. dani burger back in the hot seat at london hq. it is daybreak europe for the stories that set your agenda. oil surgeon. wti closes above $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

the crunch raises fears of elevated inflation. asian stocks, global futures fall as traders await u.s. cpi tomorrow. u.k. chancellor rishi sunak is warmed over the scarring to the economy. we look ahead to today's jobs data. good morning. welcome back. the party is over. we are one bad red headline away from the bond market implosion. there is one line from morgan stanley. let's give it to the viewers. there is a disconnect between the fed and investors. the fed and the investors have embraced the view that inflation is transitory, a few that is not shared by the consumers. the consumer is shaken under pressure. good morning. dani: good morning. if you want to take the other side of the trade, if you want to be an optimist, you also have good people in your company

specifically jamie dimon. he was talking at a conference yesterday. the chief saying there has been extraordinary spending from the consumer. 20% above pre-pandemic levels. he thinks that that will stick around, that that will continue to turbocharge the rally we are seeing. not only is there some divide between the equity market and the consumer but what is in the investor base, there is clearly also a divide. manus: jamie dimon sees a lot more alive data than i will ever see in my lifetime but i want to show you the chart that matters for us which is the divergence between the consumer confidence, which dropped like a stone, and simon kennedy makes this point. consumer confidence tanks. 18 months before there is a recession. we could already be in recession. how are your markets?

dani? we seem to have one of those moments of maybe where we have lost sound. we will get to dani in just a moment. we are just going to fix those little technical problems that we have. take a day off. forget that you came back. we will get to dani in a moment. let's reset. we have this surge in energy prices. higher oil this morning. typically more to come. the vice chairman see is $90 oil on the barrel. dani: it certainly could go to $90. -- >> it certainly could go to $90. people around the world, particularly in europe and china, are switching from some natural gas to oil. suddenly, you have this upward pressure on oil demand that was not in the forecast a month ago. manus: let's bring in the

bloomberg industrial commodities reporter, martin ritchie. energy commodities, coal, our commodities editor, andrew james comer is with me. martin, let me bring it to you first of all because what we have here is an oil market on fire. everyone is saying it is switching from gas into oil but there is more to it than that. about $100 and 80's be with a much bigger cyclical shift. what do you make of it? martin: that's right, and energy seems to be running short. in china, we have seen coal futures hit record highs, so jumping 11% to a record high. that is because of the recent shortages of the fuel compounded by fears about the flood in a major call -- coal hub. the latest news is those floods

are not causing the harm we thought they were. the damage is receiving a bit. that still leaves china, even if that is not an issue, with a big headache in terms of getting energy supplies to carry it through the high demand season in the winter. that means importing fuel, producing more coal, and all of those add to the upward pressures on global energy markets. dani: andrew, i am back. my sound is back. let's bring you into the conversation. from what you are looking at in this continuing energy rally, does anything at this point look like it might slow it down? >> there's a few factors that could slow it down. opec-plus could decide to jump back in and start producing more. their next regular meeting is not until early november but it is possible some commentators say they may be forced to come back and step up production.

in the u.s., we are starting to see a bit of a supply response from shale producers. this is the privately held shale producers, not the public ones, is he returning cash to shareholders. there's also the possibility of a response from the u.s. daniel seems to be pretty confident that joe biden will step up the pressure on opec-plus if oil prices keep rising. does the global economy starts slowing? goldman came out with a recent forecast, seeing lower u.s. growth. there is a potential for chinese and indian growth to slow on the energy crises so that could add a bit of a headwind as well. manus: we just had a guest with me talking about oil being way above $100. on the panel yesterday saying if people are really serious about

carbon and reducing carbon, you need serious carbon taxes. back to the coal market. andrew, my apologies that i started asking you about oil in the first instance. the coal market, what is the driving factor here? is it hoarding that is driving coal or is it shortages? what is the risk of power outages and a growth drop in china? >> i think the risk is very high and i think we have to be clear that the current issues in china are largely a matter of also apply, of coal being short because of a series of administrative measures the government has taken, not just to do with trying to reduce carbon emissions but also on safety and pollution and that has left the market much shorter than it should have been. we have seen prices go up. we have seen already a hit to

economic growth in the last quarter which is probably going to deepen. the most interesting thing today actually is some commentary that has come out from the premier li keqiang that appears to be hinting at the government moving towards prioritizing economic growth away from the carbon climate policies it has been trumpeting. he made some detailed comments on energy security, repeating that word again and again and emphasizing energy security as the fundamental basis for the country's economic growth. so it looks like there is some sort of slight pivot in thinking going on. dani: coal nearly up 11%. thank you for your really important story, dominating global markets. that is martin ritchie. speaking of global markets, let's get over to juliette saly in singapore, who has the

cross-asset look for us. a little bit of taking risk off the table it seems this morning. juliette: it certainly is. we have these inflation concerns potentially widening the crackdown from china, really weighing into sentiment. asian stocks lower for the first time in four sessions. weakness coming through in the tech space. samsung at a 10 month low. alibaba has been on a tear, also weighing on the overall msci asia-pacific index of tech stocks. i mentioned the regulatory crackdown, hearing moves from china to look at state owned banks. this could be something that is done quite regularly so you have not seen too much momentum but a little bit of weakness in the hang seng finance index and we are seeing the thai baht on an absolute tear. we have positive signs of reopening in asia and thailand, now looking to scrap some of the quarantine travel to get into that country. when it comes to the bank of korea, this was the big one.

the bank of korea has been ahead of the curve. we have seen the korean won weaken the most since july 2020 after they held pat today. looking forward to more interest rate hikes. .75 percent, pointing to some of the concerns they are still grappling with in the economy so what you are seeing in the relationship with the won and what we have on the china evergrande front as well, you can see that quite big move study. manus. manus: thank. juliette saly in singapore. coming up on the show, a surge in energy and mental prices as we have been discussing. a fresh reminder of how the commodity markets can fuel inflation and perhaps imperil global growth. we will discuss. ♪ -- dani: later, we will be looking at the political turmoil across europe and the impact on markets as well as the energy crunch. do not miss that conversation with maria just after six: 30

a.m. london time. -- 6:30 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is a daybreak europe. i am manus in dubai. the energy crunch is rumbling higher in europe and asia. a little earlier, i spoke to our guests. >> yes. you know, in the next few months, i would say that is significant. but that is a risk at this point, yes. manus: the material risk is that oil could be above $100 a barrel. maria is the senior asset

strategist at state three. we know he is a bit of a bear on markets. maria, good to see you. does it feed the frenzy of stagflation is oil encroaches on that territory? maria: that is a risky prospect, i have to say. we are probably not there yet in terms of our forecast but i think what is interesting to me is we are focused on short-term disruptions and focused on the inability of supply to catch up with demand and what is interesting to me is it is kind of -- the reason oil price is rising now is that demand has grown unexpectedly strongly so we are not prepared for that. really, despite the short-term disruption, medium, longer-term, we are recovering a bit faster than we have been prepared for.

probably not in a camp to worry about it too much. we have economic strength that is nudging the growth price higher so in terms of what this means, maybe we are not growing as fast as we anticipated before but i am less concerned about stagflation at this stage. dani: it is always great to have you on because i feel like as these clouds form, you always have this very constructive view on equity markets but how difficult has it been to maintain those constructive views as we get more warnings? goldman sachs morning about the consumer outlook. is it really difficult to be a bull in these markets right now? marija: that is a good question. even just looking at the price actions, is challenging. medium-term, the reason we have been constructive on equities has always been twofold. first of all, underlying earnings. we are in this constructive

strong earnings camp where is the economy is recovering. consumer cash on the sidelines. that is still there. the earnings side is kind of ok. on the rate side, multiples side, we are probably getting more hawkish notes from the central bank but still talking about fairly patient central banks. what futures are telling us is they are discounting 150 basis points in a decade so that is our all hiking cycle and that is very patient after 10 years. still negative rates. it's not very aggressive for financial conditions i think. medium-term, it's hard to say. medium-term, it's hard to find any other place to be in. manus: i think that is a very fair take. it has been a difficult period of time for everybody on your

side of the table. we are trying to assess a 40 basis point move in bond market gave us a 5% drop in stocks so it's not an easy call. let me ask you this. -- says the fed will wimp out. in other words, they will start to taper. that did not turn out to be what we thought. a little bit of inflation. the fed went by. what did state street say? marija: i think what we know is there's very strong connections between the stock market and consumer confidence. it needs to be taken very carefully. we have seen that the markets have a strong belief in the fed put. one indicator i will look fairly closely at is term premiums. we are having quite a big spike. since then, markets kind of accepted the fed is going to be

very patient and moderate. there is a discussion about tapering. what chairman powell told us is the bar for tapering is fairly low. we fully expect them to announce it before the end of the year. the bar for hiking rates is actually quite high. we have seen the payroll reports. the labor market needs to heal so we are still not there. i'm not sure it's wimping out. the bar to meet conditions for hiking rates is still very high. a very strong kind of support from my constructive call on equities. we are not going to have very aggressive central banks. dani: in that case, what do you make rates at this moment? they remain at very depressed

levels. as the economy picks up, can we see more movements in the real rates space? marija: yes, that is exactly right. level versus change. real rates are picking up. the percentage is quite significant but real rates are very low and they expect it to stay very low for a very long time so i'm not worried about rates, markets. exerting pressure. affecting the relative allocation. we are focused on duration of course. it's not very aggressive for the real rate market. in our opinion. manus: i need this market to hold on. a few more years work to do and i cannot afford -- i cannot afford another one. thank you very much. marija veitmane, state street. our guests this morning. let's get to juliette saly in

singapore. she has a long way to go. juliette: i do indeed. the parliamentary inquiry has found the u.k. government made serious mistakes in its early handling of the covid pandemic. the report says many lives would have been saved if they fall lockdown had been imposed more quickly. it said the country adopted a fatalistic approach and asked testing. the imf has decided to keep kristalina georgieva as managing director. the lender has been examining allegations of improper actions during her time working at the world bank. janet yellen says there was no basis for a change in imf leadership. she also won support from european nations including france and the u.k. germany's social democrats met with coalition allies for more than 10 hours of discussions yesterday. the greens urged that relief for pandemic hit e.u. nations while

the business friendly free democrats reaffirmed no tax increases. speaking to debt limits. for more hours of talks as olaf scholz continues his bid to succeed angela merkel. thailand unveiled a roadmap to revise its tourism reliant economy by -- vaccinated visitors. visitors from 10 low risk countries including the u.s., china, germany, and the u.k. will not be required to undergo isolation on arrival from november 1. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you sonny -- thank you. juliette saly in singapore. it tries to root out corruption. we will have that story for you, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. markets heading lower for their third consecutive day when it comes to u.s. futures. and wall of worry to climb. let's get into these markets and the corporate picture with our guest. the senior multi-asset strategist at eight street. one statistic i was looking at that stuck out to me was authorization for buybacks. more than $870 billion for stock buybacks in 2021. it is clear that companies have a lot of excess cash saved up. how do you see them spending that? >> yes, companies have lots and lots of cash and it's really unusual for companies and consumers to emerge from the crisis in better financial condition then they came in so there is this war chest of mine.

some of it will go into buybacks. what i'm really excited about is to think about the capex spending. we will be invested. we know that it is not only that companies have money. they need to invest. over the last decade, the main trend was offshore production to asia. we have seen during covid that that is not a great plan given that supply disruption delays and deliveries -- they are really talking about shortening supply chains, restoring, bringing production closer to the consumer and i think that that is bill capex. those are really powerful drivers for green technology and modern technology replacing labor with capital so all of those trends have been bubbling under for a long time and i think it is unique for companies to have a lot of cash to invest right now and it can be spent on capex. for me

actually, that is really the most interest bit of our reporting season to listen to management, what they are talking about, where they capex is coming. how much it is coming, how quickly it is coming, so that will be my focus in the reporting season but i'm excited that this can actually happen. we have not had serious capex for a decade. if it happens, it would really change the productivity a lot, particularly in europe. that is the place we are looking the most. it will change productivity of offered abilities so that can be transformational. manus: we are just showing the stoxx 600 industrials. it will be on that side, maria. it chimes with a lot of our other guests who talked about serial underinvestment. can we pivot to china very quickly? it is another day, another evolution of the regulatory

environment, which is shifting in china. how much exposure do you take to china at the moment? if so, where? alibaba has bounced by 20% in the past couple of days there there must be value somewhere in china. >> i think i will answer your question to full. first of all, in terms of our recommended folios, we are underweight asian box. exactly for the reason manus highlighted, the regulatory environment, revelatory uncertainty. i would say once we have a very clear regulation on chinese text, for example, that would be good because we can draw a line and say that is it here and we can look at valuation. right now, we don't know. we just respond to it. in our portfolio, we stay out of asia. quite unusually, it's probably

not systemic. dani: i'm so sorry to cut you off. unfortunately, we are coming up against the heartbreak. it is so good to catch up with you this morning. a lot of ground to cover. thank you again for joining us, marija veitmane. european leaders gather for the e.u.-ukraine it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware?

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dani: "bloomberg daybreak: europe "bloomberg daybreak: europe good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, where it had just gone 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. i am dani burger alongside manus cranny from dubai. this is," and here is what you need to know. wti closes above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

the power crunch raises fears of elevated inflation. asian stocks and global futures fall. attention turns to u.s. cpi tomorrow. rishi sunak is warning over scarring to the u.k. economy. we will take a look ahead to today's jobs data. manus, a big wall of worry to climb. the most recent of which will be coming from goldman sachs, who is warning a downgrade to their growth and morgan stanley as well. concerns about the consumer are rife in this economy at the moment. manus: absolutely. that disconnect between what the fed believes on inflation and what the market and consumers believe in inflation are different things. martin malone was with me this morning. he said look through the growth numbers. you are all misguided. it was delta that has impacted growth at the moment. he says growth will research. we will not see a major step stationary environment morgan and i are saying the dead and

the investors have embraced the view that inflation is transitory. it is a few not shared by consumers and it is the confidence that is cracking. if you get in your car, -- you were in america a few weeks ago -- you get in your car, it cost you 50% more to fill up your tank. america is a nation of drivers. and consumers of energy. that is when it really crimps in the pocket. dani: it does. we had jobs numbers out last week, this disappointment. the most acute concern is inflation-adjusted wages. as you say, if you are an american, you are filling up your tank. what you are getting paid does not look as good anymore. he will not be willing to go out and make big purchases if all of a sudden, everything looks more expensive to you. that is when we get this potential scarring on the economy, even if inflation is indeed transitory. manus: indeed.

let's check in on those markets. a couple of one-liners. we will hear them throughout the morning. oil will trade above $100 in the next couple of months. to the markets, here we go. futures are lower. morgan stanley are warming on the equity side of the story. the equity market is catching up a little bit with the reflation and stagflation environment. we just had marija veitmane. she is looking for industrials, capex in this reporting's season. nymex crude, $80.67. they might put more pressure on opec-plus. did not work before. it is up 70% in the past 30 days. we are up this morning on outages, physical outages, but it is about gordon, the hoarding mentality of coal -- about hoarding, the hoarding mentality of coal. they think that can break the 2% level in the near term. dani: big moves there.

also today, happening in the e.u., leaders are gathering in key have -- kiev for the summit. ukraine is struggling to remain a key transit nation for gas as putin pushes ahead with the controversial nord stream 2 project. maria tadeo, thank you for joining us this morning. what is the significance of this meeting between ukraine and the e.u. within the context of energy prices jumping? maria: yes, and as always, timing is crucial. with this meeting, there is a political but symbolic major to it. the european union wants to go to ukraine and show that the e.u. stands with ukraine, a country that as you know for five years now has been in a proxy war with russia. for the ukrainians, it is important to have that picture emerge, to see you have a big western power that would back ukraine in a situation that they

fear at one point could de-escalate and threaten the country's territorial integrity. the other big issue has to do with the energy. for ukraine, this is not so much a story about the gas they use from russia but this is about the transitory nature of the country, a transit pipeline into western europe. the ukrainians fear that with nord stream 2, they would lose transit fees, booking the money they make from providing that gas from russia into western europe and they want clear assurances from the european union that that is not going to be the case. they want to make sure they still book a profit from this and book transit fees but also that they are not left in an economic decision that could make it weaker in the eyes of russia. all of this is happening as we see energy prices jumping pretty much from day-to-day in the european union. the e.u. is key. this is where it gets difficult to have a working relationship in the winter with russia. so far, we have seen that vladimir putin has given key

indications he is willing to work with the e.u., willing to make this markets table. winter is long and it looks like it will be a cold one this year. manus: indeed. we saw mr. putin repriced the gas market last week with the promise of more gas. maria, thank, maria tadeo in ruin. let's broaden the conversation out and get a wider perspective across europe. joining us now is the deputy director. thank you for being with us. i think maria tadeo set out the plans very clearly. ukraine needs assurances from europe that they will not be destabilized or put in a worse position as a result of north stream. what can and will europe do to assure ukraine that that will not be the case? good morning >> good morning. yes, well, i think that the e.u. will be seeking to sustain the

reforms that have been agreed between the e.u. and the country as well as the imf. we don't want to see a rollback. i think that that is something that needs to be sustained. i think you will be pushing for this. as we heard earlier on, the big issue right now, ukraine is indeed energy prices because it affects the country very badly and indeed can actually jeopardize it. there may be a conversation about the degree of support that the e.u. can give if you like solidarity. i think that is going to be the big issue. now, how this will play out with respect to that remains the same. dani: russia, perhaps a key and crucial source of help for the energy crisis. can russia be a reliable partner when it comes to energy despite

tensions with the rest of the e.u.? maria: it has to be. we have to be able to carry a conversation. the idea that we do not discuss is difficult to implement. we need to be able to discuss decisions in particular when it comes to something that affects the consumer very dearly. the energy prices are affecting consumers in a tremendous way. just the start of the winter and the countries here in europe are taking huge measures to be able to help the consumers, the households. how long this is sustainable will be affected by the ability to talk with them. manus: let's just extrapolate that. last week, mr. putin managed to move the gas market by multiples of a percent in one day on the promise of more gas going through nord stream 2. we are not there yet on nord stream 2. what do you make of the proposition that europe would be held hostage with nord stream 2

gas? can it solve the energy crisis, the temporary energy crisis in europe? is europe going to be hostage to russia? maria: europe would like to avoid that. that is not going to be something that the e.u. would like to fall into. it is a trap. remember the issue of the energy prices. it's a short-term issue. it is not in six months or one year. now, we need to resolve that. the e.u. will be taking measures to try and contain that. negotiated -- negotiating from a weak position is never a good idea so other measures need to be put in place. so e.u. is doing the nobles come all the things. this is not long-term. there is a bumpy ride for europe in my view. dani: the other source of political tension within the e.u. is emanating from poland, with courts ruling that some of their national laws usurps that

of e.u. law. there is also this question of whether they will actually put it into writing, make it legally binding. we have seen in the past that have delayed that with, for example, their ruling effectively banning abortion. how likely is it that we get this written into law in portland and how soon could that happen? maria: the issues with poland are known. the latest thing that happened last week is of course a great problem because it refers to the supremacy of law. which courts are the courts of last resort? this is a very important issue for the supremacy of the e.u. law and somehow needs to be resolved. there are tools to react and we want to see whether it will react to poland. i would put that as a very grave issue but what the good news here is that action has been taken and that is important because we need to see some progress on this issue.

this is the time to take action. i think the e.u., in the case of the european commission, will probably be taking some action. it is an important problem. it is something that needs to be resolved. i actually think that they will take some measures. manus: what is the risk of a pole exit? a lot of people thought brexit would not happen and they decried it. it's here. what is the risk of that? maria: i don't think it's real. i don't think the government in poland wants poland to exit and i don't think the population in poland are exeter's. -- exiters. on top of that, you also have people with no intention of living there. so i really don't think you can -- dani: you talked about some of

the tools the commission can use to influence poland. can they perhaps were example pullback or should they pullback on funds through the nexgen e.u. funding program? maria: that is a tool they can use. the reform program has not yet been approved by the european commission. it has not followed the procedure. therefore, the european commission would be well within its mandate to withdraw. this is not a tit-for-tat. it will be wanting poland to reform and retract before it can release some of this. i think the pressure is for the european commission to be that and i personally believe it is also correct. -- if issues of that sort are violated in quite that way. manus: thank you so much for your take on the ongoing

negotiations. that is maria demertzis. let's that your first word news with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: the imf board has decided to keep kristalina georgieva as managing director, reassuring full confidence in her leadership. they had been looking at allegations of improper actions during her time working at the world bank. janet yellen says there was no basis for a change in imf leadership. she won support from european nations including france and the u.k. germany's social democrats met with potential coalition allies for more than 10 hours of discussions yesterday. the greens urged debt relief for pandemic hit e.u. nations while the business friendly free democrats reaffirmed the red lines of no tax increases and sticking to debt limits. four more hours of talks are planned today.

coal futures have surged to a record for a second day in china as another key mining region suffered flooding. two mayans in the province are reported to have been impacted by heavy rainfall. this comes after floods closed some 10% of coal mines in the country's biggest coal producing region in recent days. southwest airlines has apologized for canceling more than 3000 flights over four days. the dallas-based carrier says a shortage of workers -- air traffic control interruption. southwest says it has hired about half the 5000 workers it wants to add before the end of the year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much, juliette saly in singapore. coming up, we look ahead to this mornings u.k. labor market data and what it could mean for the boe. it is a hike on the table next? this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. u.k. jobs data are due in less than 20 minutes and boe policymakers will of course be watching closely. possibility of tightening policy this year has been growing with inflation forecast two past 4% in the fourth quarter. lizzie burdon joins us now. we have jobs data from the u.s. why is today's labor market u.k. data so important? lizzie: policymakers will be watching today's data very closely after two officials over the weekend doubled down on the possibility of tightening this year. if the bank of england does hike

in december as many markets are expecting, the monetary policy committee will be gambling that it will not choke off the recovery by focusing on inflation which it sees tipping past 4% in the fourth quarter as you can see here. now, the risk is jobs and today's data on jobless claims in the final month of furlough will give us some clue as to whether the bank's thinking is on the right track but unemployment did not spike in the aftermath of the furlough scheme ending. not all members of the military policy committee are hawkish. you have got members like catherine man who are less certain about the fate of the workers who were the last left on the scheme when it ended and on top of that, the u.k. labor market has been thrust into the spotlight in recent weeks with high-profile shortages in a number of key sectors leading to supply chain chaos and as a result, concerns about a wage price spiral. for bank of england

policymakers, that causes a headache, but for primus or boris johnson, he says it is part of his story. he says it is all part of the post-brexit transition to a high productivity economy. we will get chapter one of that story at 7:00. dani: thanks. manus, take it from here. manus: they certainly stepped in yesterday in terms of china repricing the short end of that curve. let's see where the data is at 7:00 a.m. president macron is set to unveil his investment plan of up to 30 billion euros, spent on key strategic sectors over the next decade. is it enough to bring him back to power? caroline connan has that answer. you have seen many stimulus plans and covered many elections, so what do you make of this one? what do you make of this stimulus plan? good morning. caroline: good morning. your six months away before the presidential election, so

clearly, with this new stimulus plan, president emmanual macron wants to show that he is thinking beyond the pandemic, beyond the emergency response of the 100 billion euro plan he had presented last year. this time, he is presenting a plan at 9:00 u.k. time today himself so you can imagine how important this is to him. the finance minister presenting it. he is the president. he wants to invest as much as 30 billion euros of key strategic sectors over the next 10 years. hydrogen batteries, artificial intelligence, all these sectors that he says will make france more independent and more strategic over the next decade. also interestingly, a small nuclear reactor, something he says would be important during this energy crisis. critics however have said that this was not including the budget presented a couple of weeks ago.

this will add extra pressure on french public finances. dani: as manus mentioned, this comes amid the upcoming french presidential election. what are the potential political ramifications going into that context? -- contest, rather. caroline: macron is leading in the polls. he has not declared himself yet. but we have a very interesting, very new media phenomenon in the french elections at the moment with the far right wing columnist, eric -- i'm not saying marine le pen -- eric, who is basically creating a media frenzy recently and the pole. a lot of airtime because of his new book, saying france has not said it's last word, warning about a possible islamic republic that could be created in france if nothing is done. anti-immigration, anti-gay,

saying the feminist ideology is dangerous be at all of this appeals to a low income electorate but also conservative boards was the in france -- blues rossi -- bourgeoisie in france. marine le pen would be below 20%. even one pole said that eric could face emmanuel macron in the second month. interesting six months before this election that you see this new candidate even though we have to be careful because a lot of the polls, six months before an election, do not necessarily reflect the outcome. years ago, when president macron won the election, he was not a candidate six month before the vote. manus: indeed. you know the answer. it is non.

you are going to be busy, busy, busy. caroline connan back in the polls and macron will get to know you very well over the next six months. always great to have her with us. coming up, jamie dimon sees that crypto -- he labels the bitcoin worthless. more on the story. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i personally think bitcoin is worthless. i don't care. it makes no difference to me. they disagree. that is what makes markets. if they wanted to have access to buy or sell bitcoin, we could give them legitimate access. manus: never short of an opinion. j.p. morgan chase.

$57,000. up 30% in the past 30 days. i up with him earlier. there is bitcoin. the bloomberg galaxy crypto index, up .3%. just because you close down mining in china -- strangely enough, this will, as a shock. if you close one mind down in one country, it will open somewhere else. i know you are a bear on crypto and bitcoin, but is it a hedge? you by bitcoin, hedge to inflation. you said, no. buy gold. dani: there is something to this stock bitcoin start to disconnect. usually, they trade a lot of likes because there risk assets. it coin has started to move separately from equities. way more volatile than gold. perhaps not the hedge you want

to be holding in this environment, manus. manus: not at all and you brought it to my eye. it is relentless, isn't it? dani: huge spikes. 18 month high so that really is that inflation worried. do you go to gold? you go to bitcoin? that is it for us at "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european open is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am a anna edwards london. mark cudmore joins us here in london to take us through all of the market action this hour. the cash trading is less than one hour away. here are your top headlines. the global energy crisis sends oil surging. wti closes above $80 per barrel for the first