>> there are a lot of delays and shortages in the economy that are beginning to show in hiring trends. >> we have seen a substantial repricing of growth and inflation. >> under our forecast, growth is much more moderate, inflation is on its way back down. >> the whole reflation recovery trade is still ahead of us. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: earnings season just around the corner. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.1% on the s&p.

earnings coming tomorrow. tom: i am going to say it is a modest pullback over the last number of days. i did the chart for francine earlier this morning. we are basically at a july 21 level, and we have to reset. it begins tomorrow. jonathan: the market worried about higher interest rates and supply chain issues. a haven so far over the last couple of months. the banks have been rallying hard going into numbers tomorrow morning and through the rest of this week. tom: the banks talk about recovery and use of cash. that will be a huge part of the discussion, not only the banks, but everybody else. what i see more and more is there simply two camps looking at the same narratives and saying we are going to get over this fear. others saying they have a persistency that is unmeasurable. jonathan: up 10% on the kbw banks index since september 22.

that is quite a run. lisa: how much is it predicated on a steeper yield curve, and what happens if we do not get further steepening? this is one of the ideas, that we could see some pressure if we don't see loan growth, if we see consumer pessimism and the yield curve does not steepen. jonathan: that's the issue. what is behind the right move? can you get -- the rate move? they are the questions a lot of people have got increasingly comfortable with. lisa: meanwhile, you have higher fixed costs. junior salaries have been going up so much. this is eating into the bottom line, and people are expecting the baseline costs to go up significantly. jonathan: it is a point of tension. lisa abramowicz is back. if you missed the previous hour, don't worry about it. yields down a couple basis

points. in the fx market, euro-dollar unchanged. crude still north of $80. got to get used to that. $80.90 on wti. tom: i am not used to that yet. jonathan: can you get used to that, lisa? lisa: i haven't been driving as much, but i will say this is definitely going to be a game changer heading into december, especially as heating bills start going up. here's what i am looking at today. tonight like em, u.s. job openings. the expectation is for it to continue to climb towards that 11 million figure. why are there so many job openings? why are they not getting filled, considering there are millions of people who are still unemployed from before the pandemic? these will perhaps be some of the questions answered today. we will hear from said vice chair rich clarida. how much is he going to pay her back expectations for rate hikes?

we were just hearing about how perhaps the expectations baked into markets have gotten a little ahead of themselves. raphael bostic of the atlanta fed is going to be speaking on inflation. is it going to be temporary, transitory? take your eye to pick here. the question is, -- take care adjective pick here. the question is, can it persist? how much local demand will there be? this has been the tipping point. you had to have the domestic buyer come in because international buyers have been that much less consistent. jonathan: and $24 billion of 30 year bonds tomorrow. tom can hardly wait. thank you very much. tom: all of the governors and chairmen and vice chairmen are probably lined up for that. jonathan: are you trying to say something? tom: he's got to step lightly. michael mckee has moderated the iif meetings.

what does clarida do, what does georgieva do in the bright lights? thank you for giving me this opportunity. you know i've got a somewhat special relationship with her. she is an esteemed bulgarian phd. she's got a ps factor of zero. i am going to stop the show and go managing director, this is about evidence. is there any lurking evidence, or do you have full confidence the long firm -- the law firm or others aren't going to find further evidence. jonathan: if they put out a business report right now and you saw -- would you believe in it? tom: i think you have to look at the executive process and say you've got research integrity at any institution, whether it is boj, imf, world bank, whatever.

are the executives meddling with those research projects? it is as clear as that. tom: the research -- jonathan: the research should be unvarnished, and i am not sure it is anymore. that is the problem. tom: they have to sell integrity going forward. jonathan: i hope you get that conversation. tom: we are working on it. it is a little delicate. my biggest problem is my team is so fired up for imf world bank, there are so many people working on this, they are not talking to each other. jonathan: how many are on the team, tom? tom: seven people are working on it. jonathan: you get down to business. work it out. tom: they just tell me what to do. jonathan: michael shaoul joins us now, market field asset management ceo. market expert patients clearly moved down on a low-inflation regime. i am talking about finally breaking out of the lowfla tion regime that has plagued

much of the last decade. do you think we have? michael: straightforwardly, i think we have. it is a significant environment to anything we saw pre-covid. one of the big changes that is going to represent his consumers have an incentive to buy today rather than white tomorrow -- rather than wait until tomorrow. lisa: you are somewhat pessimistic on stocks, according to your latest note. how much more selling are you expecting, and why? guest: i am not that pessimistic. i just don't feel selling is totally done. the worst case scenario, i think the index is testing the 200 day. might not need to go that far. what we are in is a process of realization that the strong growth we have had comes with persistent inflation attached. more than it be in good are bad for equities, what it does is favor certain sectors and disfavor other sectors.

you have said yourselves we've had strong performance by financials, which are very yield sensitive. energy has been far more transitions. people will get over their fears about china, and the losers are a combination of rate sensitive sectors and utilities. if things do proceed and you start to get yields breaking out, i think you start to chip away at the very high multiple portions of the u.s. equity market. so it is a really winners and losers scenario, but i think it would favor certain indexes and hurt others. tom:tom: you are expert across all that we do. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. fold in this commodity moment into the other asset classes, particularly equities. do you believe in the commodity super rally we are beginning to see? what does it mean for stocks?

michael: commodity equities look very cheap compared to commodity prices. energy equities are nowhere close to where they were in 2014 , when crude oil prices were at current levels. if you look at the industrial metals, they look very cheap. you have this collapse and iron ore. the iron ore miners look way cheap to iron ore where it is today. i think the market remains skeptical. i think it's view of commodity equities as excellent trading vehicles, i think relatively large amounts of money have been happy to jump into commodities and then jump out of them. what we haven't yet seen is the sort of heavy fundamental investment back into the commodity space. there are a couple of good reasons for that. one, it has been a terrible place to be for a decade. the other reason is the esg

pressures that a lot of institutional managers are on that lead them to want to underplay investment in a lot of these areas. jonathan: michael, thank you. really good final point. michael shaoul of market field asset management. i also wonder whether there is a degree of skepticism as to whether they can maintain some discipline in an industry that hasn't had much discipline until recently over the last five to 10 years. tom: i have people selling me on the new discipline, jon, and i am sort of like you. show it. jonathan: there was a big shift post 2010 for the miners. do you think they start behaving again? tom: i am not qualified to make a judgment, but what i will say is i have personally enjoyed losing money on supply buildout hopes and dreams based off of price. jonathan: who wants to put that money to work in that industry right now? tom: it's not there. jonathan: jeff currie really

started things off over at goldman when he said this was the revenge of old commodities, a space that didn't get much investment at all. those dollars don't want to go in that direction anymore. lisa: credit investors are asking for more fiscal prudence. you are seeing investors demand it in a different way, especially after getting burned in the aftermath of 2014, 2011. i think that is also a distinct feature, with extra cash flow going to pay down debt. jonathan: so those are looking better. lisa: absolutely, they do. jonathan: i heard it, just a limbs of positivity. -- a glimpse of positivity. your equity markets positive 0.1 percent. yields are in about a basis point or two to 1.5961%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word

news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. in north korea, kim jong-un showed off a varied arsenal of missiles designed to frustrate u.s. defense systems. it was a rare display that appeared to be the latest effort to break a diplomat asked dale made over his nuclear program. he blamed the u.s. for creating regional tensions. the house is set to vote on a short-term interest to the government's borrowing limit today. that would avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default and set the stage for an even bigger showdown on debt and spending in less than two months. the international monetary fund will keep kristalina georgieva as its managing director. georgieva has denied any wrongdoing. the number of people working in the u.k. went above pre-pandemic levels last month, an indication of a stronger labor market that may lead the bank of england to

raise interest rates. payrolls rose by a record 207,000 in september you'd meanwhile, job vacancies also rose 1.2 million, also a record high. so smithkline is preparing to spin off -- glaxosmithkline is preparing to spin off its consumer unit. a number of private equity firms are interested in what could be a $54 billion deal. among them, kkr, blackstone, and carlyle group. the unit could also track some of the biggest pharmaceutical companies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> they may start tapering in november and you have a sharp quarter of tapering. they are going to win about and postpone any raising of rates. jonathan: nouriel roubini, ruby macro associates ceo -- nouriel roubini, were beanie -- nouriel roubini, roubini macro associates ceo. yields lower by two basis points to 1.5944%. in the fx market, 1.5552. tom: certainly, the houses are suggesting we grind higher. jonathan: we heard that from ed morse yesterday. could see $90 in 4q. we are almost there.

$90 is not a big call. tom: there's two prices of oil. you quote wti, which i think is fine. going up, i look at brent. going down, i look at the lower-priced wti. i really don't know why i do that. i am looking at $84 oil right now. jonathan: tom just looking at some of the forecasts for q4 2021. wti, $79.39. so it is basically where we are. tom: it is where we are right now. in washington, annmarie hordern, it is an odd october. there's radio silence on social legislation, radio silence on infrastructure. a beleaguered imf director, i guess she stays on board, and on and on. how odd is this october? it annmarie: --annmarie: it is

pretty odd, as you say. there are a number love balls in the air. when you look at the debt ceiling today, the house is going to vote on that. we knew look at avoiding a government shutdown, it is all just being punted. we will be dealing with this again in less than two months. on infrastructure talks, we did hear from speaker pelosi in a letter last night saying that what she is hearing is overwhelmingly that there should be a focus on less issues, but done well. potentially we are getting a little more movement and closer to what that social spending package is going to look like. tom: tell me about international. is there any focus in washington on our vaunted european allies, the tensions with china as we go into imf world bank? or is it sort of pandemic odd? annmarie: this morning there is going to be a virtual meeting between president biden and other heads of state. italy is hosting this for the g20. this is focused on afghanistan because all of the developed world economies understand that

the economic devastation, what is going on in afghanistan is something they want to try to help, but politically is incredibly awkward. how do you give money to the taliban to use for humanitarian aid, which the united nations said could come to very dire situations in the next couple of months, while at the same time making sure you are not rewarding the taliban, which still has an kodaly difficult situation right now with women and girls -- and incredibly difficult situation right now with women and girls? when it comes to china, it is the same. there's discussions potentially other virtual meeting between xi jinping and president biden. as we head into cop, it is about trying to get china on board to some pledges, but it is looking tough given what we are seeing in the energy world. lisa: this is front and center for politicians not only in the united states, but all of the g20 leaders facing higher asked prices, higher energy prices. how are they pulling their

efforts to bring these prices down? is there an aligned interest here to do that. annmarie: i think most heads of state have an interest to bring energy prices down. in the u.k., very high gasoline and diesel prices. but the same time, there's also this idea of security. this morning we are hearing from china's premier talking about these lofty ideas about climate, also talking about the fact that their underlying energy goals need to be about energy security, so that really pits countries against countries to make sure they have enough of either natural gas or oil because you do see some switching, and that is driving up the price of oil. for the united states, they are going to tap the strategic petroleum reserve or they are going to have to ask partners at opec+ to pump more to bring down some of these prices. lisa: you covered opec+ for a long time. you know this intimately. how much clout does the u.s.

have if we do hear from the administration in upcoming weeks? do they listen? do they care? annmarie: they do listen. they do care. it would have to be a direct asked. right now, what you hear about is a lot of discussions between the united states and opec+ allies, but it needs to be a direct ask from high levels of the administration to another high-level of the opec+ group. they certainly do care, and i think you would see movement on that if there was a direct phone call. tom: bringing oil back domestically, do we go with what we had as a gallon of gas as a third rail, or is it different this time in modern america? annmarie: it is incredibly important to coast zoomers -- to consumers. no president was to be presiding over higher prices at the pump. it is not just about gasoline prices. it is also concerns and worries

about heating and electricity bills. right now the u.s. doesn't really have a natural gas problem in terms of power for electricity, but what would be a problem is if they do. if it is a very cold winter, potentially that could become more of a problem. but it is still in focus. no president wants to be residing over four dollars a barrel for gasoline. jonathan: has the green transition got a short-term messaging problem now? annmarie: it is a great question. we are only days away from cop. how do you have deliverables on a clean and easy chair edition when you don't have the energy right now, the energy security of the right now? the top u.s. energy advisor spoke this week and was talking about the fact that there needs to be a transition, climate change israel, but it is not a light switch. it is about making sure you can still have that transition while at the same time having energy

security. that is what the united states needs to focus on. jonathan: annmarie, thank you. our washington correspondent on the latest. there's some tier problems, -- there's some problems. tom: i'm going to suggest esg is under siege. maybe there is a prediction of what we will see and new tension at cop. jonathan: is this linked to the fact that we have had underinvestment in these areas for a long time now? tom: there have been a number of votes recently that have linked the public saying no to some of these initiatives, and i think as you do, you get way out front on a story that is percolating. this is percolating for our listeners and viewers, and it is going to be there. i am not predicting what it is going to be, but this is a different glasgow and what we thought it would be six months ago. jonathan: a short-term messaging

issue. you can make the argument that this is just turning the economy back on my bum piece applied side issue we have to work through, and it will take some time. lisa: the question is how much money they put behind it, and how much policymakers cater to the pain people are feeling. jonathan: your equity market with a lift, up six, advancing a little more than 0.1%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, let's get you the price action. equity futures positive a little more than 0.1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, positive 0.3%. the russell totally unchanged. the back-and-forth between the trade, value and growth. the epicenter of that trade is global covid cases. if those start to point in the right direction, we chop from growth back to value. i want to talk about that right now. two specific sectors with a net value trade. energy, one-month performance, up 20% on s&p 500 energy equities. the banks up by 7.12% -- 7.21%.

the issue here at the epicenter of the value trade is the supply chain risk. bleeding through industrials and materials and potentially going elsewhere, which makes the value trade that much more complicated into these two right here. i think that is a really interesting point. energy and the banks flying, and some concentration within a value trade. tom: this is wicked important, and i take great issue with the deflation of growth -- the conflation of growth and even more so this word value. the pros don't do that. in the media, we do that. you are dead on about the focus on these two sectors versus other sectors that are deemed value, but have completely different supply dynamics. jonathan: and banks have been a haven for the supply-side risk because they are less impacted by it. the energy story supporting the

energy equities. it is a really important point lori calvasina is making, and it is a story we will continue to focus on. in the bottom -- in the bond market, reopening things. curves flatter, 30's up three basis points. that curve just a bit flatter as we start to build some momentum towards that november 3 fed meeting. vice chair clarida a little bit later. tom: the only one who doesn't care about the auctions more than me is romaine bostick. jonathan: i think romaine cares, tom, deep down. more than you, anyway, but maybe that is a very low bar. in the bond market, yields in a basis point. some auctions coming later on. that is the cross a set price asking -- cross asset price action. let's get you some movers with romaine. romaine: tesla moving higher on the back of news about shipments from its china factory, rising

27% in august. that follows a 50% gain in august, and it seems to suggest a lot of those issues it was dealing with regarding bad publicity and china, some of that might be behind it. elon musk actually said the shanghai factory is now out producing its fremont, california factory. glaxosmithkline said to be drawing some interest for its consumer-products unit. it could be a $50 billion plus deal, basically a who's who of private equity firms said to be kicking the tires, including kkr, carlyle, and a few others. fastenal shares slightly down. they talked about cost with regards to transportation, wages, etc., but you know what they also talked about? covid supplies. this was a huge driver of their best in us -- their business. that was down 40%. tom: i need to go back to glaxo

because to me, glaxo has been a 10 year train wreck. mi wrong on that? romaine: i am not going to use the word train wreck, but a lot of activist investors have been circling for this. they have called of the spinoff -- called for the spinoff of a lot of businesses. it has not been in outperformer, that is for sure. flip up the board. i will give you a couple of interesting underperformers. how about this? mgm resorts getting an upgrade today. the price target doubling. saying it is a cleaner, leaner company. i don't know if you are a cable tv subscriber, but they have been taking it on the chin here. charter, all to -- charter, altice. tom: romaine bostick, he's leaner, getting ready for earnings season.

david riley, we can talk about equities and bonds, investment and strategy. he has been really folding it into our economics. david riley with bluebay, i love what you wrote about inflation-adjusted realities. in this phrase you have, "the leveling down of real income," discuss how we are not leveling up. david: that was, in particular, a reference to some of the policies in the u.k., where the policy response both to the supply shortages we have seen in the u.k. have been such that really, it is stagflationary, and i think it is going lower in terms of households across the u.k.. i think it is interesting because it has become a sort of bellwether for this sort of

stagflation narrative. i think the u.k. with that leveling down is actually highlighting that. i'm really concerned about stagflation with respect to the united states and the rest of europe, but where i think you've got particular shocks and a policy response with fiscal tightening, non-responding supply shortages, encouraging firms to raise wages without any effort to help enhance productivity, and you've also got a bank of england sounding increasingly hawkish, i think this adds up to quite a potent cocktail for the u.k. and u.k. assets. tom: if the cocktail right now a weakened consumer, a lesser consumer in the coming year. david: the consumer has been

crucial, and it is certainly the case that the energy shock that we are experiencing across much of the world, to a lesser extent in the u.s., but obviously seeing higher oil prices, is a negative shock for household incomes. all that being said, generally speaking, households are still in a pretty good place. i think it is important to bear in mind that this recovery has been very uneven. we still do have impacts from the pandemic. i think we saw that in the weaker than expected u.s. payrolls on friday. i think one of the key issues is whether consumers are going to have this handoff between durable spending, stuff that you get in a box, to actually spending more in terms of services. that will i think be important for just how robust consumer spending is going into 2022 and

beyond. lisa: as an investor, how do you position at a time when a lot of people have basically said this is the reality, we are seeing stagflation light or whatever you want to call the dynamic? do you go into u.s. assets disproportionately? do you go into equities? do you pull back and go to cash? david: i think it is a difficult market to navigate right at the moment because you do have this stagflation narrative, but you were highlighting rotation into value sectors such as energy and banks. but you can also look at relative underperformance of industrials, which performed very strongly in the first quarter and is very much a reflationary theme, and rates have relatively unperformed -- relatively underperformed in u.s. rates. i still do like u.s. assets. i think the underlying growth fundamentals for the u.s.

economy are very strong, if less exposed to the energy shock then europe and asia in the slowdown we are seeing within china. clearly, i still think rates have got further to go. i think real rates are still very negative, and all this talk about or treasuries are going, let's look at the tenure real rate, still -90 basis points. i still think that has room to shrink in terms of that real rate. i think that is going to be a headwind for long-duration growth sectors, but still broadly speaking, i think the dollar is going to do reasonably well. so sort of short rates by us, i have to admit i am with the consensus. i like subordinated bank debt, so they don't have to worry so much about how bank earnings and bank rates are going to perform

going forward. jonathan: nothing wrong with being consensus and being right. david, thank you, sir. the banks have been great. the banks have been absolutely terrific. since september 22, even more so. to his point about the underperformance of industrials, this is what lori calvasina of rbc is getting at. you stay away from the industrials and gravitate more towards the financials, the banks, and energy for obvious reasons. lisa: the idea being, how do you not get exposed to some of the increased input prices? i think what he said about subordinated debt is compelling. you don't want to necessarily be hinged by the dynamism of growth in banks going forward. you don't have to be so connected to the yield curve. you are looking simply at the idea of the confidence of the banks just surviving and doing just fine. jonathan: so far, they are doing better than just fine. tom: i'm looking at the resilience of the markets.

spx is up 40 points off the overnight low. dow is up 270 points as well. there's a relative lift off the gloom of last night. jonathan: resilient or complacent? tom: my answer is simple. while of money. -- wall of money. i am not completion the about the houston astros. jonathan: that is good to hear, tom. future divan sing a little more than zero point -- futures advancing a little more than 0.5%. in euro-dollar -- in foreign-exchange coming euro-dollar $1.1556. we -- we add $0.15 to the price of wti. this is bloomberg.

leigh-ann: with the first word news, and leigh-ann gerrans. it is up to the house to avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default today. lawmakers are scheduled to vote on a increase to the government's borrowing limit. it is good for less than two months, when congress faces an even bigger showdown over debt and spending. oil has held above $80 today. west texas intermediate futures were little changed. there are expectations that a power crisis from asia to europe will lift demand, and that opec+ alliance could add to the upward price pressure. chief scientific officer of johnson & johnson is retiring. they have taken on some of the world's most imposing infectious disease challenges, including the coronavirus. he is leaving at the end of the year. the announcement comes less than two months after j&j's longtime ceo alex gorsky said he will leave on january 3.

the coach of the las vegas raiders has quit. he steps down hours after "the new york times" reported he made homophobic and misogynistic marks in emails. that followed an earlier -- misogynistic remarks and emails. that followed an earlier report of racist rhetoric. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it has been an incredible run. they have been the drivers of this bull market. i think we are starting to see some cracks emerge that there's probably better places to put your money going forward. jonathan: michael o'rourke there, jones trading chief market strategist, on the equity trade. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is barely positive on the s&p, up by 0.03%. into the bond market, yields are in at a basis point on tends to 1.5979%. your curve is just a little bit flatter. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.1557, unchanged. crude on wti, $80.87, up by 0.4%. stronger dollar in the mix as well, polluting the emfx trade.

why do you love that currency so much? tom: i don't know. if we have a $1.14 on euro -- jonathan: i haven't seen it yet. tom: on equities, he's prepared, as he has been for years. david wilson is in charge of the sausage making across all of bloomberg media on this earnings season. what is so important, just to give you an idea, if you could sit with our headline team as they do seven companies at once or 12 companies at once, i have to admit, with profanity, they've got their headphones on and they are flying around being the best in the world at the headlines, and wilson has to synthesize this all in. he starts tomorrow at what, 6:45, g-v morgan -- jp morgan? david: roughly speaking, and there will be plenty more as the

weeks go on. tom: the techs are a couple weeks later. david: exactly. we had our first report today from a s&p 500 company, fastenal. they are off about 0.5% at this point. what this chart does, it looks at earnings preseason. not every company fits into the typical schedule. tom: it is a great chart. david: fiscal years that don't follow the calendar. i look at all 21 companies that reported between mid-september and the end of last week, and you found out that 12 of the 21 companies fell in terms of the first-day stock performance after their results came out, and playing a certain amount of disappointment either with the results themselves or with the companies' outlook. you are talking about an average drop of 1.2%, a median

decline, whatever statistic you use, it was clear that the preseason was not exact a positive for stocks. tom: this is on the pendulum of gloom. lisa: this is the issue, of how much hope is already baked in. a sickly, no matter what the result, people have a very high bar and are looking to be disappointed in the post earnings reaction. david: and let the chart that was just on the screen showed, people were getting more optimistic. for the fifth quarter in a row, analyst earnings estimates on the s&p 500 rise during the quarter. that is what happened in the third quarter, so a continuation of a reversal from what we traditionally see with analysts bringing down their numbers. it kind of sets up more room for disappointment down the line. tom: you and i are old enough to remember when earnings season was the back page of "the wall street journal," these little

itsy-bitsy things. are we smarter now than we were then, when you looked at the earnings with a pencil and circled the ones that interest you so you could go look at value lines? david: i would hope so. tom: in what you invented? david: i don't know if i invented it all, but especially in the last few quarters, and terms of companies beating earnings estimates, you focus on the s&p 500, when you get something between 85% and 90% of the companies in the index above the average analyst projection, it tells you that just beating earnings estimates isn't enough, and you could argue to some extent that is also true for revenue because increasingly, companies have been able to do that as well, so it becomes more about things like profitability, gross margin, or the outlook. tom: let me be the ultimate cynic here. are they managing the message? do you ascribe to the idea of the cynics that this is all

managed by ceos, cfos, and their pr people to beat the beat? i hate the phrase. it was a beat. what does that mean? david: that basically means however the analyst estimates were set, you can argue how much company guidance they used in establishing those estimates, that they came out ahead. the bigger question is how is the business doing, and to some extent, you kind of have to look beyond the top and bottom lines to see that, and you have to focus as well on what lies ahead. with so many companies facing issues like higher labor costs, higher raw material costs, higher shipping costs, the ways they are facing getting products, all of those things are issues down the line. tom: prime time for david wilson tomorrow. when you look at the tots, it was a beat. jonathan: you guys are two steps away from talking about pigeon carriers, honestly. [laughter] david wilson, thank you. tom, give me a chance.

the fed has embraced the view that inflation is transitory. we believe corporate profit forecasts are vulnerable. lisa shalett says this, especially if consumers translate into higher spending. lisa: i find it fascinating, the idea that consumer confidence has been going down as inflation has been going up. that's why we hear that on friday, that retails sales number be the most important number of the week. could we get a disappointment because people don't want to spend so much more money on goods? jonathan: cpi tomorrow, retail sales friday. tom: these are really important. what it means is you have to recalibrate growth. atlanta gdp is now under 2%. was it blanchflower, i can't remember, talking recession? we may be up for a combined cbi retail shock -- combined cpi retail shock. jonathan: coming up, alicia

levine, bny mellon. advancing all most 0.1% on the s&p 500. yields advancing, 1.6014% on tens. from new york city, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. >> i'm dani clevenger with an exclusive bnp paribas open update for test channel -- four tennis channel. the lucky loser only made the main draw after the linda -- after belinda bencic withdrew, but took out top-seeded carolina push cova -- top seed karolina

pliskova for the biggest win of her career. defending champion bianca an dreescu went down to the number eight seed, who took full advantage of a poor performance from the 2019 u.s. open champ. don't forget, tennis channel's exclusive daily live coverage hits the air at 10:00 a.m.

>> consumers now have an incentive to buy today rather than wait. >> we have seen a substantial repricing of both growth and inflation. >> the whole reflation recovery trade is still ahead of us. >> inflation eventually will come off. >> a taper is much more on autopilot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.