a difficult market to navigate, because you do have the stagflation narrative. >> right now, barriers are completely new to us. >> households are still flush with cash, and businesses are flush with cash. >> this conversation about slower sentiment, slower retail sales, it is feeding into why inflation eventually will come off. >> is growth going to slow this year? the answer is a resounding yes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the week begins right now. from new york city, for our audiences worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene, jp morgan earnings this hour. tom: they get us going this

morning, and what will be so important are the conference calls, the nuances of what they say, not only what jamie dimon says, but then, jon, we dive into those important tech earnings. jonathan: before we get the cpi, we need to talk about apple. fantastic reporting from debbie woods out in taipei. that stock is negative, just .6%. apple is likely to switch its projected iphone 13 production targets buys many of 10 million units -- why? because they can't find the chips. tom: my carrier is t-mobile, and they said the same thing to me, jon. they are having trouble getting the phones. to things are going on. one is the shortage of daily reports. but the other thing is they are selling the unit. people want the new toy. the team i bloomberg intelligence says the demand is at least at 6.5% better than

consensus. jonathan: you can learn something from the bloomberg story. you can also learn something about how the market responds to the bloomberg story. that is a big move. lisa: almost 10%. what i find interesting is morgan stanley analysts said about the potential cuts, they said if apple cannot meet near-term demand, it does not speak well for their competitors. it might mean that they can win market shares, the dynamic underpinning this idea. jonathan: tom keene, "we view today's news as nothing more than a speedbump on a multiyear cycle." tom: yeah, but, jon, this is so important. coming over on the beltway, i was thinking, jon in washington, about our timeframe. the answer is everyone is working on short narratives, where dan ives is looking

multiyear. maybe we could be multiyear on bank earnings today. jonathan: we will try and do that. about 43 minutes, lisa will run you through the day ahead. here is the price action as we kick off things this wednesday. we advance .2% on the s&p on the futures. we are positive by half of 1%. hero dog -- euro-dollar 1.1569. transitory is a dirty word, tom. 1.5664 on the 10-year. that curve is flatter. tom: the first thing i noticed this morning, jon, we are on the same wavelength, from washington to new york. 122 basis points. i'm sorry, it really matters, jon, that the zeal to extend, pushing against the gloom. lisa: i don't want to call it

stagflation, because that is a dirty word, but i will call it slugflation. it will slow growth going forward, a la apple, slowing production. today at 8:30 a.m., i am fascinated by the u.s. consumer price index data coming out. the expectation broadly is for 5.3% year-over-year increase. bloomberg economics expected to rise to the highest level, 54 -- 5.4% since 2008, this has to do with energy prices, housing prices. this is not the kind of inflation that can lead to a cycle, because it is not being. . driven by wage inflation. there's a reason why you see that flattening in the yield curve. at 9:00 a.m., the imf director talks ahead of the meeting. central bankers, tom keene, everybody they're trying to talk about the road ahead, especially if the u.s. and europe lose economic clout.

how do you get more economic clout for the behemoths like china, especially with the credibility gap increasingly growing among policymakers. later, we get the fomc meeting minutes. when did they start tapering the monthly bond purchases? it also has to do with the rate hike idea. 2-year yields at the highest level to have been since the height of the pandemic. despite the fact that transitory is a dirty word, despite the fact that treasury secretary janet yellen says it is in effect, and this is transitory. jonathan: the atlanta fed making headlines yesterday, lisa, thank you. tom, what is in store in washington? tom: damage control at the imf. they have been doing this for decades. it is not going to jump the shark.

it is a different meeting. yesterday, all eyes were on the managing director and how she is going to come out of the uproar that she has had at the world bank and her 90-day tenure there a number of years ago. i will say, jon, the jury is out. jonathan: looking forward to the coverage. earnings now is greg boutle, bnp paribas head of equity and derivatives strategy. apple down 10% from september highs. let's talk about banks, also almost 10% from september 22. what you tell clients about how to manage exposure? greg: thanks. banks will be one of the few sectors that will be more expensive rather than less expensive food we have seen strong growth. the banks have gotten a bit more expensive. we are a bit more cautious

coming into these numbers. concerned about sustained relatively growth. lisa: what is the most important thing for you to see to get more bullish on the banks?is it more yield growth, corporate long growth, consumer growth? greg: the yield curve is extremely important, obviously. it is more about the medium-term trajectory van where it moves -- than where it moves on the short-term. it has to be about sustainability. it is not about where the bank beats or misses on this quarter, it is what is driving the beat on this, is this something you can project forward, like growth, or is more provision releases or trading revenues? tom: let's go to the heart of your work at bnp paribas, which is on positioning the best of people and making wins in the equity market.

our people up to their eyeballs end shares or not? greg: one of the things we have been talking about for this past quarter is we think positioning markets are more fragile. we have seen inflows from a number of sources, in terms of some of the index level positioning but also in terms of the utf's. we do think there are positions out there, and we think markets could be more fragile for a disappointing news flow. for q4, we think elitist time to sell the valleys rather than by the dips. jonathan: does that change going into the new year? greg: we think so. it is going to potentially hurt margins a little bit and slow topline growth. our economy's team did not believe this is something that is going to continue into the bulk of next year, so what we are focusing on more as a tactical correction for equity markets, and we are looking for a robust year next year but maybe do some short-term bonds in the road before we get there. tom: what is the leverage right

now on the market? what are the hedge funds doing? greg: leverage is still pretty high. we saw some outflows over the last couple of weeks, as the market has corrected. this is coming up for year what we have seen massive inflows into equities. importantly as well, we think some of the dynamics around some of the options market has changed. a long gamma position. the last three or four weeks have left us in a configuration where the market is freed up to move a little bit more actively. and importantly, some of these strategies involve target funds that act more mechanically. marginal sellers in recent weeks as well as marginal buyers as well as the volatility. jonathan: hey, greg, gotta run. thank you. greg boutle there, bnp paribas head of equity strategy.

tomorrow, bank of america, wells fargo, on the friday, it is goldman sachs. tom: can i mention the correction that mr. boutle just spoke about? the standard & poor's down. i understand there are corrections them as there always is, but, jon, we lost total perspective of what down is. jonathan: what down is and what down has been over the last nine months, tom, isn't that the story here? down has been 3%, buy it. down 5%, buy it. you get conditioned by that. tom: you get conditioned by that, but you have the wall of money, jp morgan harkin it all. in the jp morgan, which, frankly, folks, i learned a lot from what jp morgan says, and, jon, we don't gauge how unusual these times are.

jonathan: i would agree. let's talk about one key issue, lisa, it is loan growth. lung growth is almost certainly around the corner. it is a soft inflection point. if loan growth were a car -- there is always of the like this in my mail, isn't there? -- if loan growth were a car, it would be moving from first to fourth gear. lisa: the university of michigan survey -- do consumers want to borrow money when they still are flush with cash? if they don't, where is the source of growth for banks? jonathan: we are expecting jp morgan members is our. that would be a conversation for us -- numbers this hour. that will be a conversation for us. the week well and truly starts right now. equity futures up nine. from new york city and from washington, d.c., too, this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪

leanne: with the first word news, i am leigh-ann gerrans. risk of running out of borrowing authority. what that means is it is likely to be another partisan confrontation of defending and that in less than two months. next months, u.s. will relax coronavirus restrictions on its land borders with canada and mexico. that will allow for a resumption of travel. the move comes after the white house will allow airline passengers from wide-ranging countries into the u.s., with proof of vaccinations and a coronavirus test. the european union will allow a new round of concessions to northern ireland in the latest round of brexit negotiations. the eu will propose cutting as much as 60% in northern ireland

and up to 80% on imports -- on food imports. it keeps the eu in the single market and unlike the rest of the eu, the u.k. wants changes in mass agreements. the international agency warns the world is not investing enough for future energy moves. investing in green energy such as solar and winds is falling short of what is needed to keep the planet from warming up. at the same time, the i.a. says spending on natural gas and coal dust continue. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the fact is that if there are fewer dollars to spend, there are choices to be made, and members have said let's get the results that we need, but we will not diminish the transformative nature of what it is. jonathan: there are choices to be made. speaker pelosi in washington. from new york city this morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. we are up 12 points going into numbers for jp morgan. the cpi in america, 8:30 a.m. eastern time. yields in. the curse of been flatter. we had 1.60. now we are back on 1.5629 on a 10-year yield, tom. crude holding onto that $80 handle, -.6%. tom: did we get to 1.62?

i think so. so we are at five solid basis points. jonathan: some real curve flattening in yesterday's session. tom: i don't make light of it. it is usually important. right now, we're going to talk about the move down in washington, pelosi is 82 years old, and the republican from kentucky, john yarmuth, wait, he was a republican, then he switched to the democratic party. he became very lonely, more lonely tomorrow at 73 essie announces his retirement. annmarie hordern is here on a democratic party that is falling apart. we have seen this script before. annmarie: as you say, he was the lone democrat in the kentucky congressional representation, so this is a very important seat. we should say,, louisville, as well, though, biden carry that with a pretty high margin.

already republicans are saying this just shows, a little bit of the old-timers and the democrats, they know they are going to lose the majority. they are going to be out now. tom: in virginia, there is a tight battle there as well, featured in "the post" this morning. dovetail the sweat they have right over to speaker pelosi, speaking about an infrastructure bill and a diminished social program. how do you link the two together? annmarie: it is all about whether or not they can carry through to the midterms. what they could do now to go home and sell to their constituents. when you talk about what is going on in virginia, what is interesting is the analysis of the voting demographic. one key that helped biden win the presidency and helped a number of democrats is women coming to vote, because they were just infuriating at times with some of the rhetoric coming from republicans, especially president trump. the analysis coming out of virginia is women may now stay home. they are disengaged in politics, and that could help republicans. lisa: annmarie, why is tom in

washington ? annmarie: [laughs] we love having him. he is here for the imf meetings. he comes every year for these meetings. he is probably the best person that bloomberg to be here for it. lisa: the reason i ask is there are the imf meetings some of the world bank, also g20 meetings taking place for the third day today. does any of this matter, or has the credibility of a lot of these policymakers lost so much clout that people are not even watching what the proceedings are? annmarie: it is definitely a weird meeting, as tom mentioned earlier, in the sense that there's still a number of social distancing going on in washington, d.c. mass mandates as well when you go into entrances. but when it comes to the and christiana georgia -- kristalina georgieva, her speech will be closely watched, her session becomes a lame-duck,

regarding that report at the world bank. that would happen, as you say, lisa, institutions like the imf, people will essentially potentially not pay as much attention to. it is important to note yesterday with the imf report to my number of people are paying attention to that, especially if they lowered the growth forecast and they mentioned supply chain disruption. lisa: that is where i wanted to go. for the record, i am very glad tom is down there. i wanted to ask about the 2:20 p.m. speech from president biden today where he plans to address the supply chain disruptions, especially on the sales from apple we got from bloomberg yesterday. what we do to reduce these frictions that are ongoing? annmarie: that is a great question. what power does the administration have over private companies and labor unions ? what the white house has been doing is setting up a task force, become

an interlock are these groups to try to ease some of these supply chain disruptions. one things we do see happening in california and some ports moving to 24/7, meaning they are working weekends, through the night. we expect them to make an announcement on that. he is joyed virtually by a number of executives a labor union leaders, and potentially he will announce what they will do together. really the white house is there a kind of help provide the communication to these groups, but they don't have the authority to do anything outright. tom: but the difference here is the goldman sachs timeline is longer than any politician in this city. they don't have the luxury of waiting for late 2022. images are going to be pulled for next year about the political battle in this nation. what do the moderate republicans and what do the moderate democrats do? what is the plan? i don't see one. annmarie: it is a great question, because all of the companies are saying this will

end until 2022. you heard caterpillar say that. the moderates want hard infrastructure to get through asap. and potentially for them -- tom: i am fascinated by that. what are the liberal democrats thinking? annmarie: it is off the map, because the liberal democrats want to hold it as leverage so they can get their social spending plan through. we know it will not be $3.5 trillion. the topline line figure is $2 trillion. the big question -- what goes in it, and how long? do they go big on few pieces, or do they build the entire wishlist for shorter timelines. jonathan: the big question is how many drinks were consumed last night, annmarie. [laughter] annmarie: jon and the martinis. jonathan: let the correspondent down in washington speak. annmarie, please. [laughter] annmarie: i was a reporter on the ground at this moment during saint regis, anton consumed north of two -- and tom consumed

north of two martinis. lisa: "north." [laughter] jonathan: very diplomatic. tom: i would say the thing regis in the fairmont and others are going at about 60% of normal. they are back there. jonathan: the governor's race, let's talk about that briefly. the president is set to go down there and campaign with terry mcauliffe. there is a question as to whether that will actually help him. will that help them? tom: i think it is about turnout, jon. i think mr. mcauliffe is extremely seasoned, and it is a really interesting calculus, maybe virginia beach, downward dennis gartman lives. i would suggest, jon, an incubator for all the worries and fears that the democratic party has. it is all about turnout, and it

may not be there for mr. mcauliffe. jonathan: that vote taking place november 3. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro waiting for jp morgan members, in 20 minutes, at some point this hour, new york, tom, when is a drop, 20 minutes? lisa: 6:47. jonathan: 6:47? [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪

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>> the growth story remains very

strong come even after the loosening of the pandemic, the worry that there might be a spend competition. but so far, the cannabis sector seems to be holding up very strong. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." what a morning. in about 20 minutes' time, we have earnings from jp morgan. equity futures positive .6% on the s&p, nasdaq 100, the russell doing ok, up 5, rising .2 4%. fantastic reporting from debbie was out of taipei here at bloomberg. that stock 1.4075. up about .5% -- down about .5%. the markets not doing much here,

tom. we are down nine point 69% from the september 7 high on apple, and we are only down another half percent. we understand this story. how much do we understand it is a case of profits deferred and not profits loss? this from a case study come a much broader issue for this market into earnings season. tom: part of it is consumer demand, and that is apple and a very successful iphone launch, based on what i learned and how the phone companies -- t-mobile, at&t, and verizon -- already massive rights were like they were 10 years ago. you know what, jon, they keep the consumer going, and that is the "surveillance" debate right now. you have the gloom crew looking for a consumer slowdown, and you have another crew looking for a consumer doing resiliently well. maybe that is neal dunn up. jonathan: neil dutta at 8:30.

looking forward to that. 30-year yield in three basis points. your 2-year up at the front end, down at the back at their we see a flatter curve could when you are down eight or nine basis points, now we are down another 2, 3, 4 basis points. that curve is a bit flatter once again. that is the cpi. tom: raving about inflation and what is going to happen there. clarity from the imf yesterday on the transitory debate. jonathan: a dirty word, tom, according to the atlanta fed president. tom: rock silent and decidedly not transitory has been the bank research excellence of derogative cassidy -- of gerard cassidy. i was pleased to learn he joins us today. gerard cassidy, thank you so

much for joining us right now. i want to know, and all this of floor, if these banks will adjust, change, amend their use of caste, or is it business as usual -- cash, or is a business as usual? gerard: thank you, tom. they would love to put the cash on more successful uses, but it is challenging, as you know. the flood of deposits that have been created by the federal reserve, the monetary policy known as quantitative easing, has really dampened their ability to put this cash to work , as you guys just talked about, the rates are quite low at the short end of the curve, and this is weighing on the banks. this quantitative easing, as it has been tapering, hope we kicks in, and it ends sometime in the middle of next year, that would give banks some relief, but, boy, you and i have not seen growth like this in our careers.

tom: we have not seen this, a one trillion overnight repo. gerard cassidy, when you take control over the internal business over the cash for shareholders, is it business as usual? gerard: that part will be. in that sense, tom, what we are seeing is, know the banks are stuffed with deposits. they are still generating significant profits. they are able to do this because come as you might recall, last year, they put aside billions of dollars in anticipation of credit losses that did not materialize. they did not materialize because of the successful policies by the federal government as well as the fat in pulling us out of that deep recession and the second quarter of 2020. but that is now turning into a return of excess capital, so for shareholders, what we are seeing, tom, for the first time since the pre-financial crisis, the banks now are untethered from the what they are able to

do in terms of returning to shareholders. there are no restrictions as long as you don't violate your capital issue. prior to this order, however, you always needed preapproval from the fed for sharing purchases. that is no longer the case. lisa: a lot are counting on this. grade earlier this morning was talking about -- greg boutle earlier this morning was talking about how he is looking for expenses as especially banks start to pay up in order to attract talent. how much are you watching their expense ratios at a time when junior analysts are coming in, making $200,000 a year? gerard: it is a great question. we wrote about it yesterday in a research report. expense growth is a new issue that has developed. it is not just a banking industry issue. we hear it all throughout the economy that the cost of wages, the cost of hiring employees is

higher, and this will be one of the areas that will be increased focus and the third quarter results that start today with jp morgan. . the other bigger macro trends come and you touched on one, loan growth, we think will overwhelm, maybe headwind of higher expense growth. but it would not surprise me, come fourth-quarter results, which is in january of next year, when they are released, if we start hearing about cost savings programs. because negative operating leverage is now persistent throughout the top 20 things, which was not the case the year-and-a-half ago. lisa: which banks are you particularly concerned about in terms of how much expenses are going up? gerard: the big banks, including j.p. morgan chase and citi are examples of companies that have high levels of expenses, expense growth, that is relative to revenue growth. also the investment banks, goldman sachs and morgan stanley. it will be interesting to see how they handle this expense rate of growth versus revenue growth over the next six to 12 months. jonathan: what are we learning in terms of the leading indicator for loan growth?

do you see anything over the last 12 months that gives you a nice subtle signal that things will pick up? what is the leading signal you look for? gerard: there are two areas, jon, and you touched on one, the monthly data, the trust data, the credit card trust dated that comes out every month is a great leading indicator. the federal reserve data on consumer lending out of new york, the new york that, another good indicator. but number one, what we are focused on, because it is the largest loan category, and it has not recovered yet, is good old-fashioned commercial lending. what we are watching carefully is the inventory to sales ratio in this country. all-time record low. you guys have talked about supply issues over the last six months. they are intensifying today. if inventories are rebuilt over the next 12 months, that will be the key indicator to watch the commercial loan growth, and we expect that to accelerate in 2022. jonathan: do you see a blood institute invest at the moment

before the supply chain issues, supply chains are resolved? gerard: it certainly has its challenges, jon, no doubt about it, but as demand starts to accelerate as you look at capital expenditure numbers, deepening on the industry, and they are certainly very healthy and robust. but it is a challenge, because of labor and the supply issues with the supply chain. but as their covert problems fade away, hopefully in the next six month and is no longer an issue, i think that is going to be the real catalyst to bring everything back to normal. tom: gerard cassidy, what are they going to do about headcount? what i see here, like in every other industry, is a solution by technology. how many jobs does technology take? gerard: tom, it is a really good question, and in fact, in this report we wrote yesterday about expense growth, we were looking at the headcounts since 2008 for

our major banks. in the cases of bank of america and citigroup, they are down materially. jp morgan, not the case. primarily you might remember, tom, back in 2008, they acquired bear stearns as it was failing, and they picked up the failed washington mutual. but to your point, what we are seeing, because of the digitalization and the delivery of bank products through that channel is less of a need of people in branches, and we are seeing those shrink. it is tough to really calibrate for every dollar of technology spending, you need .5 less people -- that is a tough calculation to do, because we just don't have the data to be able to accurately do that. needless to say, as the digitalization increases and the penetration rates increase, you are obviously going to need fewer people in the banking group, and we expect to see a slow decline in the number of people employed in banks over the next three years to five years.

jonathan: gerard, thank you, sir. stay close as we work our way toward those numbers. jp morgan down, .3%. lisa: we have got eight minutes. jonathan: your sense is :47. lisa: i took the eight ball, i shook it, and it said 6:47. jonathan: your equity market looks like this. futures are positive 6 points, up a little more than .1%. gerard cassidy will respond to those numbers. i can just about seeing sonali basak out of the corner of my eye. she will be with us, too. the yield curve is flatter. your 10 year yield down another basis point, 1.5629. 30-year yields down a little more so. are we starting to sense some heightened sensitivity to the inflation data in america from some fed officials on that

committee? tom: yeah, we are, absolutely, jon. i just want to point out, you never see me out of the corner of your eye. jonathan: i do, tom. i shaped my body to look the other way, so i cannot see you out of the corner of my eye. [laughter] tom: yeah, thank you. lisa: [laughs] tom: during imf world bank week, we have overwhelming reports, and then there is a slim four pages that hits you over the head. fatih birol is scheduled to be here with us come up with the international energy agency. jonathan: looking forward to that. from new york city this morning, good morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. a big morning this morning. good morning. . we have cpi at 8:30 a.m. eastern, and according to lisa, jp morgan in about five minutes and about 32 seconds. lisa: that is correct. jonathan: lisa: that is correct. jonathan:

this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i am leigh-ann gerrans. congressional democrats are still confused over how to slice of president biden's economic agenda. the tax and spending cuts down from about $3.5 trillion to $2 trillion in the original plan, though they cannot agree on which parts of the president's agenda to keep and how long to pay for that. changes are coming at the federal reserve. the vice chairman will be removed from his role as the wall street bank's main watchdog. progressive groups need now get to see their least favorite governing group sidelined. two other governors, lay our and michelle bauman. the russian leader was one of the european union to rewrite some of the rules of the stock

market after years of overdoing moscow's concerns. it is over the controversial nord stream 2 pipeline to germany to boost gas deliveries. china's exports have hit monthly records in advance of holiday shopping, power outages across the country, rising prices also adding to the increase. meanwhile, chinese imports rose less than expected. immortalized in "the big short," now he has gone on a twitter grant to announce -- did announce what he calls warfare and touted that the rich don't pay enough taxes. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ n gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the day that u.s. banks are no longer invested in the fossil fuel industry, is the day that the fossil fuels are dead. jonathan: contact interview with bill winters, standard chartered ceo. i was distracted, mentor winters not wearing a tie. the style shifted. tom: he learned it from goldman sachs. jonathan: maybe that was the leading indicator there. tom: yeah, we got a firm lead. jonathan: it was the one thing i noticed. lisa: i was focused on what he had to say. jonathan: i'm sure you were. equity futures up 5 on the s&p, of more than .1%. it is a big morning. we have got jp morgan numbers in

about three minutes' time, cpi at about 8:30 a.m. eastern time. let's get a basis point or two. in the commodity market, we talk about crude, $80.16, negative they are 6%. tom: let's review that right now, and certainly the view from washington, jon, is different from you and i here in new york and london. we quote west intermedia, brent crude. jonathan: we have a case study for this, tom, in virginia, the governor race. does it just speak to local virginia politics? tom: no, no, i think it is much more than that. annmarie hordern talked about the turnout, and in the "washington post" today, did impact trump a couple of months

ago. what is really important here is the oil is much more from sea to shining sea, and it is much more issue, because those are republican states. jonathan: we will talk about the energy market in just a moment. jp morgan out and around about a minute's time. sonali basak will break it down. going into it, jp morgan shaping up as follows, a little bit negative but a big rally off the lows of september 22. a conversation about the federal reserve them about the aspect of higher interest rates and a pickup in the kbw index. jp morgan down .2%. bank of america on the session of the free market out .3%. citigroup up .33%, too. capturing the earnings season was perfectly, and this is not the earnings of apple yet. lisa, we finally got running

that maybe they got supply chain issues, too. jp morgan numbers drop, adjusted revenue, 30.44 billion dollars, the estimate, 29.6%. the estimate 13.19 billion dollars. the credit cost net benefit of $1.5 billion included. we will go to a ton of numbers here. you wrestle through a load of numbers, and you have the story. sonali basak will be going through those numbers now. she is going to tell us a story just a moment. third-quarter investment banking revenue, the estimate 2.65 billion dollars. that was expected to be strong. it is better than expected. adjusted revenue, $30.44 billion, so to add to this, sonali, those numbers just dropping. a holland more still to come. sonali: part of that is coming

from much stronger-than-expected banking earnings. trading revenue just about flat, where they were expected a little bit short, jon, but the comparison is also from two years ago before all of the pandemic havoc had reach these businesses, and they are justified in line with where they were two years ago. that investment banking revenue, again, showing you the bank's firing on all cylinders. it is so important that even as trading moderates, to keep an eye on both of these businesses. they did have reserve releases as well that would have helped to balance the bottom line, but with that said, again, jamie dimon guided that it is growing, in line with expectations. the question is -- cannot continue, and are they going to guided stability toward the end of the year? jonathan: sonali, thank you, stay close. tom, trading revenues for the third quarter, the estimate of

$3.7 billion, just shy, no big deal here. the estimate 2.1 $7 billion, expected to be soft because of the year-over-year comes here, tom, they were difficult. if you look at equities, they were expected to be strong commanding skip over that bar. tom: jon, what is so important to me is the opening, said mr. dimon as these important numbers are released. it is about a 2 million plus release of credit reserve. this is jamie dimon saying everything is fine, we are doing great, we are improving forward, and we are going to release rainy day money for another time, when we had to take a loss. we don't have to take a loss, we can show that money. he leads with the release of credit reserves. jonathan: the economic outlook continues to reserve. gerard cassidy with us from rbc capital markets. jamie dimon saying the economic

outlook continues to improve. i think this is the third quarter of a big reserve relief. what sticks out for you? gerard: that is the number one issue for not just jp morgan but the industry, as we were talking a few moments ago, last year, the group built up these reserves in anticipation of large credit losses that never materialized. , and, to jamie dimon's point, as the economy strengthens, it is only getting better. as a result, the reserves that were set aside need to come back into income. moving over to the capital market businesses, as you pointed out, the investment banking numbers are strong. i'm assuming the advisory numbers in particular were strong. and that equity trading number, as you highlighted, very strong. from the first read, these numbers look quite good. looks good for other players in the business. goldman, morgan stanley, bank of america, citigroup. jonathan: gracias for your time. i know you have calls to make.

gerard: how are they handling the supplementary leverage ratio? that is the ratio that now they are finding constraints. that is the one they have to be very capital of. talking about capital and how they will manage capital is the key question. jonathan: gerard, thank you, sir. gerard cassidy of rbc. up about .33%. a lot of this largely unrecognized going into the number. lisa: they were not hampered dramatically by lower yields, they are positive pretty much across the board, particularly with equity trading. the key question for me is -- what is the regulatory risk come up with randy stepping down from his vice chair position roll and lael brainard coming in? jonathan: you say potentially, are we getting a decision on that anytime soon? lisa: not with respect to the

fed chair, but he will have more of a spot. jonathan: jp morgan positive by about .5%. we will stay on this story for the next couple of hours on bloomberg tv and radio. we had some technical difficulties with fatty b roll earlier. i understand we can catch up with him now -- fatih birol earlier. i understand we can catch up with him now, the executive director at the international energy agency. consumers start see higher prices of fossil fuels. how compromised is that position at the moment, sir? dr. birol: i think there might be a misunderstanding, or some people are trying to protests, in a way, this current market

crisis is the first crisis of the clean energy plan, and the current status of natural gas or oil, there are different fundamental drivers, in my view. clean energy is not the cause but the solution to this problem we have, some that is why it is important. the importance is safety and the price of oil you were just talking about a few minutes ago, today, it is above $80, but today, the world consumes about 96 million barrels per day. in 2019, the world was consuming much higher, 100 million barrels a day, and the price was $60. so we cannot talk about the lessons for oil in that kind of thing. there is enough oil in the world, but the high oil prices must be resolved.

lisa: fatih, as a representative both of the energy industry and a proponent of the transition to a cleaner energy future, do you think the price of oil should stay high, should go even higher to expedite the transition period? dr. birol: i think the current prices, oil, gas, coal prices are a serious challenge for the global economic recovery, through higher inflation, and as such, those prices, i would like to see it lower than they are now. but regardless of the process, clean energy is coming very strongly. it is the electric cars. it is the solar. just today, i just saw the electric cars in china, the largest car manufacturers, it is

now down 20% of all the cars sold in china are electric cars. save in europe. it is going to grow, and it will end up, i expect, a big impact on the demand. this success, what is happening today in the markets is a result of the economic recovery around us. let's get beyond this, and i expect the current climate policies of many policies, from china to the united states -- the united states, europe, and others, have significant patience for the global in energy markets. jonathan: fatih, we have to leave it there. we have to cut it short for technical difficulties. fatih birol, the iea executive director. big banks on wall street, jp morgan largely in line, equities

trading holding up nicely. the stock unchanged at 165.40. sonali basak will be back and we will recap those numbers for you. the week starts right now, and he gets busier and busier. futures of 7, advancing .2%. from new york in d.c. this morning, on radio and this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> it's a difficult to navigate at the moment because you have this stagflation narrative. >> households are still flush with cash, and businesses are flush with cash. >> there's sentiments, lower retail sales, very much feeding into why inflation will eventually come off. >> if your question is simply is growth going to slow next year, the answer is a resounding yes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: earnings season is underway. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive fi