tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg October 14, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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economic data beat expectations, out worrying where it -- outweighing worries about inflation. paul: the u.s. lenders help lift the mood. surging revenue from investment banking and equities trading. shery: microsoft shuts its chinese version of linkedin. this is a picture across wall street. we are seeing u.s. futures muted at the open. gaining a 10th of 1% after we saw the rally in the new york session with the s&p 500 gaining more than 1.5 percent. some of those inflation fears fading. we had u.s. ppi posting the smallest gain this year and rising only have a percent in september. not to mention positive data coming from the jobless claims about marking a fresh pandemic low. we are also watching the 10 year yield falling toward the 1.5%. also the 530 because we have seen this spread fall toward the 17 month low. a flattening treasury curve
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signaling concerned about inflation. crude gaining too tense of 1% heading toward they did to dollars a barrel level. this after we sell wti gain in the new york session. we are seeing extensions of those gains. crude stockpiles falling the most since june. it was all about those banks. take a look at those moves we sell abroad. there's we saw abroad. -- we saw abroad. morgan stanley, bank of america, wells fargo, all and all healthy. credit card spending better than anticipated. we did see wells fargo feeling the pressure right there. some misses when it comes to growth. it has really been about that dealmaking and trading windfall. with the pandemic, we saw the m&a advisory continuing to rise.
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this chart on the bloomberg showing how mergers and acquisitions have been a huge part of those valleys this year. -- those rallies this year. a relief for some of the banks who have struggled with traditional lending operations. i was talking about the consumer and commercial loans still under pressure not only for wells fargo but also for jp morgan. paul: those big banks thanking the good times are going to roll for some time. talking about a long pipeline for dealmaking. we had a long ranging conversation with the morgan stanley ceo as well. he was giving his thoughts on inflation, the path ahead for the fed feeling it is time to pick the bubble a little bit and if so much as it is possible to burst the balloon. he said money is to free and available. point to some of these price pressures like wage inflation and commodities prices.
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some are likely to be more enduring than others. the market is ready for tapering. >> in the next several months, i think the market has digested that the fed will have to move not just on tapering but rate increases. with 10 -- we are 10 rate increases away from what would be considered normal. bring it up over the next year is not a crisis. paul: not a crisis, not unexpected. it is almost as if things are abnormal and maybe we are getting toward normal. shery: that abnormality in the commodity space. you mentioned the power surges we have seen in recent months. we continue to see the crunch in china. the premier coming out and saying he would be ensuring power supply for factories. we have seen those disruptions. he was feast -- he was speaking in a province.
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china's lending agency saying they will keep people warm this winter. at also adhere to long-term climate goals. we will be watching with those changes are in china that could lead to some support for the economy. more divergence from fed officials on whether inflation is transitory or persistent. kathleen is here with the latest remarks. we heard from jim bullard. what did he have to say? kathleen: it's put him in the i'm worried about persistent inflation cap because he said he thinks the risk is pretty much divided between it is not a problem, inflation, or it is going to remain far too high. let's listen to what he said earlier today. >> while i do think that there is some probability this will naturally dissipate over the next six months, i would not say that is a -- such a strong case
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that we can count on that happening. i would put 50% probability on the dissipation story and 50% on the persistent story. he went on to say he things risk -- kathleen: he want to say he thinks risk is going to overshoot. he is afraid it is going to take too long. he wants to taper -- he wants the taper to end with the first quarter of 2022. he is not talking about july of next year because if inflation remains a problem, the fed will have to start hiking rates more quickly. the san francisco fed president saying it is premature to discuss rate hikes. hiking rates is not going to clear up the supply bottlenecks. she said, tapering is just dialing back support. it is not tightening policy. i would put tom barker from the
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richmond fed in the middle. he does think normalization will be positive for inflation expectations. we just heard from the president of the philly fed. he says he does not see hikes going into 2022 or 2023 unless inflation changes dramatically. paul: economics and policy editor kathleen hays. breaking news about boeing. the former boeing 737 max chief technical pilot has been indicted for fraud. the department of justice said the former pilot allegedly deceived the faa and provided materially false information. this relates to numerous problems the 737 max had faced. it comes on top of other issues regarding the seven or -- the seven 87 dreamliner's. this news coming out of the
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former boeing 737 max chief technical pilot has been indicted for allegedly deceiving the faa. we will keep an eye on that story. shery: take a look at after hours trading for johnson & johnson as well. we are seeing breaking news they will be forming a unit called ltl management to hold the manage cleaned. the unit will be filing for voluntary chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. for the payment of amounts, the necropsy court determines are owed, they will establish a 2 billion-dollar trust in furtherance. ltl has been allocated to world two revenue streams. to further contribute to potential costs related to litigations in place. johnson & johnson still up half
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a percent. city posting a result pick was it still about dealmaking and trading? was it the story of what we saw with jp morgan? >> we did see across the four banks that we have reported today, the putting much -- but in much the same thing. different reactions depending on some nuances. bank of america had a little bit of upside. and the fact they reiterated their guidance for next quarter i think is part of what that is responding to. we do see across the banks, similar to jp morgan, we saw signs of growth. things are picking up. we do need a little more acceleration into next year. are there acceleration of loans or rate hikes.
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wells fargo, the story was management speaking conservatively about the asset cap. they use the term next several years. level setting a very conservative expectation. working through that. it is going to take time. similar trends we spoke about in terms of net interest income. morgan stanley in the right spot, equity trading, ma and a fees. all really strong. they are a global leader in equity trading for the quarter. goldman had done better in the first half. they are the one to beat in m&a feeds. these are two areas where goldman sachs is very strong and we do expect strong numbers from them tomorrow. paul: in terms of m&a dealmaking, a key driver of these results. how long do we see that
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persisting? >> we see a fair amount of fundamental support for mande. they did -- for m and a. that tells you things are going to stay strong at least for the next several months. a strong four q the next year. when you think about the cash on corporate balance sheet, still historically low rates. even if rates come up at attractive borrowing levels, the fundamental still see them in place. paul: bloomberg intelligence senior banks analyst allison williams. let's get over to vonnie quinn. vonnie: president biden said health officials will soon decide whether to offer pfizer's shot to kids. there would be extended to kids ages five to 11. moderna and j&j boosters may be authorized within weeks.
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an advisory panel has already backed doses of modernity for older and at risk people. thailand will allow more travelers to skip quarantine. starting november 1, arrivals from the u.s., germany and singapore will no longer need to isolate. it is a bid to revive the struggling tourism sector. thai airways is adjusting flight schedules. bali is reopening its doors to foreign visitors for the first time of march of 22 -- first time since march of 2020. the airport is waving landing fees for all airlines through year end to encourage them to resume services. government officials say it may take three weeks to a month to see arrivals returned to a partially destroyed banksy painting has sold for a record
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$25.4 million. previously known as girl with a loon, the peas was partially shredded as the artist's prank as it came to auction in 2018. rename to love is in the bin, it became a cultural phenomenon. the work has traded for 18 times the sale price. it is the most expensive piece by banksy to sell at auction. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: coming up, our exclusive interview with the bank of america chairman and ceo. we will also hear why brian moynihan thinks inflation will not be temporary. we talk investment strategies with the wealth enhancement group as they are the start of tapering in the november fed meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the inflation story. the supply chain interruptions and other things have clearly been real. some of that is temporary but not all of it. i think we are in a period where inflation is going to take up. it is going to face -- to force the fed to move more than they have. >> inflation is not temporary. the way to conflate that is start to get to work on it. >> inflation is running at a much higher pace than we thought it would be a few months ago. it is going to be there for a bit longer. we're seeing a bit of pressure in wages but not across the board. only in certain pockets of the country. shery: executives talking about inflation expectations. our next guest says elevated
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prices will correlate with higher growth. let's discuss with the senior vice president and financial advisor at the wealth enhancement group. this gtv chart on the bloomberg shows how we have seen economic growth misses in the data but when it comes to inflation data, though surprises have been holding out longer. does this mean you are not expecting the stagnant inflation narrative to come true? >> to some degree, yes. we are we looking at our thoughts on inflation. it is getting extensive. we are seeing a lot of push from the labor market issues we are having and supply chain issues. this narrative that was once told six or 12 months ago, we are likely going to continue to continue to see this elevated inflation and probably well into 2022. shery: what other market
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implications -- what are the market applications for the yucca -- for that? labor shortages continue. >> we do think there is going to be pressure put on the fed. we believe there is going to be some tapering beginning in november versus the earlier january production. that will be followed by talking about rate hikes sooner than once anticipated. we were talking about the end of 2022. we are predicting we may see that pushed ahead as well. one of the things we're looking at constantly is as we saw cpi indications. demand for goods are much higher. to some degree, at some moment in time, we start to see high prices being a solution. we do believe that there is some tapering here of the inflationary push we have been
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living through the last 12 months. paul: surely some of those higher prices are a function of the supply chain squeeze we are seeing at the moment. that probably is transitory. when do you see that easing? >> that is a great question. in the u.s., number one complaint we are getting from clients is no longer about their skepticism of the sloppiness of the market or the skepticism of the amount of cash on hand but instead, the constant fear and complaint from business owners is the labor market shortage. what the catalyst is is not that we have our hearts open 24/7 and instead of 1.5 times pay, we pay double pay. what are the solutions to the labor market impact? i am not entirely sure but i don't think we see a solution in
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supply chain until we have a labor market adjustment. paul: what are your thoughts on energy prices? that is another thing not likely to be elevated for terribly long. how are allocated toward the energy sector? >> the energy sector is a bit cyclical in that where low prices care low prices. one of the things we sell as we watched oil was the anticipation that travel and leisure would come back. this market has been climbing itself for the last six to eight weeks. for a great performance in that value and a cyclical sector through q4. the delta variant gave us almost a reopening play again. as we look forward into earnings and growth through the end of the year and we have seen it today in banking, first led by m&a as you have discussed, but we also think the right
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adjustments, easing of accommodation could be favorable along with the tailwind of more of a global reopening. paul: before would let you go, i want to get your thoughts on china ever grant because i get a sense -- china evergrande because i get a sense you are not waiting for the whole shoe to stop but the whole shoe store. >> i like the way you put that. the evergrande is very hard to decipher. what we saw and what we learned from lehman brothers, we got so angry in the u.s. that we let them fail. what we did not realize was how deeply interconnected lehman and aig were to the global market as a whole. we look at this now and think there has to be some type of sense build around evergrande to stop the web from spiraling out of control, touching all the facets of business and state owned enterprise. we do think -- we are optimistic
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that it will be contained to some degree and not create a size medic effect across the global market or even through china but will create a one to two year issue. we still think the valuation is favorable. paul: chenier vice president and financial advisor at the wealth enhancement group. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go to dayb on their terminals. you can customize your settings so you only getting news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: let's take a look at the day ahead for australia. bhp has overcome opposition from some investors to its climate plan. the london voted 83% in favor of the strategy, which includes next to her ambitions from direct suppliers by 2050. crown resort judgment day has arrived to report on the company's fitness to run its melbourne flagship casino. west tech forecasting a 22% rise in home prices in australia this year. the bank says that could force it to rein in credit growth. shery: here's a quick check of the latest headlines. boeing is said to have found faulty components used by one of its biggest suppliers for the 787 dreamliner. a source says to kenny imparts will need replacing on some jets made in the past three years. boeing says the issue does not present any immediate safety concerns. the plane maker has more than 100 dreamliner's in storage as
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it works to gain approval from u.s. regulators. microsoft is shutting linkedin china citing a significantly more challenging operating environment and greater compliance requirements. the service has 52 million users. it makes linked in the last major u.s. social network to pull out of the mainland. the new china strategy will be focused on job hunters. expecting 2020 one revenue to increased 24% in dollar terms. that is faster than earlier projections as a global ship shortage process. net income for the third quarter rising 14% to $5.6 billion. fast retailing has issued a full year profit outlook. the owners cited potential disruptions from store closures and supply chain issues. the despite easing pandemic
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restrictions in japan, china and other key markets. profit is on track to hit $2.4 billion for the year ending august 2022. it will be the highest profit since 2019 but still misses analyst forecasts. paul: let's take a quick look at how the market is trading. new zealand the only market open right now. running for under 90 minutes. currently higher to the tune of a third of 1%. a brighter open in australia. futures pointing to 6/10 of 1% pop your nikkei futures pointing higher. we did have a positive session for u.s. equities. almost every stop on the s&p in positive territory could record, 8147 for a barrel of west texas brent is two to 3% after rallying 330% from march in
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vonnie: you're watching daybreak all still you. morgan stanley ceo james gorman has called for the fed to hike interest rates and says markets are ready for them. he told us you have got to fix this bubble a little bit because money is to available right now. he pointed to wage increases, supply chain bottlenecks and surging commodity prices driving inflation higher. >> i the next several months,
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the market has digested the fed will have to move not just on tapering but on rate increases. we are 10 rate increases away from what could be considered normal. to bring it up over the next your is not a crisis. -- next year is not a crisis. vonnie: the richmond fed president says price pressures today look more broad-based. there is a sensible time to have a conversation about tapering. james bullard says inflation is rising at the fastest pace in 30 years and central banks can't count on it being transitory. >> while i do think there is some probability this will naturally dissipate over the next six months, i would not say that is such a strong case that we can count on that happening. i would put 50% probability on the dissipation story and 50% probability on the persistent
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story. vonnie: the french finance minister says the u.s. and european union are not on the same page when it comes to dealing with china and must discuss their strategic approach. he says the best way to engage with china is the biggest question for transatlantic diplomacy. he spoke to bloomberg on the sidelines. >> the united states once to oppose china. europe wants to engage china. there is a different view. we need to discuss that. vonnie: jenny's president xi jinping says his country will set up a global innovation center for sustainable transport. he made the announcement to a united nations conference without providing details. he pointed to his country's successes. it is his third speech in less than a month to a u.n. audience on green issues. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by
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bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. paul: bank of america ceo brian monahan has joined other executives warning that inflation is not temporary. he spoke to bloomberg after the lender reported third-quarter earnings that beat estimates boosted by a record-breaking period to >> the activity levels and what goes on day-to-day is bigger than what it was before the pandemic we can talk about the economy but the actual company has about half the people at work and we are putting that up as we go. we are doing our job for customers at our clients come our communities and shareholders. but we are still part way to getting people back to work. had a town hall today with hundreds of teammates and it is feeling more normal but we have got to keep pushing ahead. >> your business is fully back to levels pre-pandemic? >> production of credit cards
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this quarter, we did a million new credit card customers with our discipline. that is as much as we did in 2019. we were on an organic growth drive in 16, 17 and 18. what you see now is like the academy, that was on an upward trajectory. now it is rate back on a trajectory. year-over-year, the loans are basically flat. they have grown two quarters in a row and they are building. on deposits, it has been 15% growth. those types of numbers are that is not the question. those things are at record levels. the loans are starting to build and that is going to bode well for us. >> you mention credit cards. that brings to my mind consumer spending. you do an awful lot of consumer spending. where is consumer spending in the country? >> to talk about that first to
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put context around it. this year, we have already done about $2.87 trillion. by charging on a debit credit card, by taking cash out of an atm and spending it, by moving money, all those different ways they move money. that has grown. over last year, it has grown by 20% plus. this year, -- last year this quarter, we were growing at 20% plus over 19. if you look at it, it has grown at 20% plus over the highest levels before the pandemic. the month of october is up over 13 or 14% the month of september was the biggest month during the year. spending in a record in the third quarter, you will see that grow at double-digit rates.
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it is consistent with what we see next year, which is 5% plus growth and if the u.s. economy. >> how much it of a vantage point you have for the holiday season? there is some concern expressed about supply chains. you have any sense going into the holidays? >> it will be interesting because it is a big spending season and that will be a year-over-year comparisons from 19 to 21. the question is, do people have the money to spend? the answer is yes. consumer business and look in their accounts, people with 2000 to $5,000 average balance, which means the house is making $75,000 a year type of numbers. they grew from the month of august to september by 2%. they are up 50% year-over-year. i have more money to spend. can they get the goods from the country to buy? i guess is we will get you this
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bike as soon as we can find it but here's a picture of it like we used to do when we were younger. or people go spending on experiences. activity levels are very high. they may be impacted by the supply chain. it is not purchasing denied. it is purchasing that may be pushed out as the goods and services get in the country. we have got to get the supply chain straightened out. the first half and second half of next year will be better if the situation persisted. shery: vanke of america chairman and ceo brian moynihan speaking to david westin. it is time for morning calls. from wall street's biggest ceos, inflation does not look transitory. the likes of moynahan, james gorman, jamie dimon all thank price pressures may last.
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supply chain chain bottlenecks and surging commodity prices. james gorman thinking the fed needs to hike rates to pick this bubble and take back some of what he calls free model -- free money. paul: right on cue, wall street has gone maximum bearish. estimating cga's are 100% short on everything from dollar to pound rates. exposures particularly intense in 10 year u.s. treasuries. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team. now broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. you can listen to your app, radio plus or bloombergradio.com. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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and it comes to iron ore, we continue to see the downside pressure. we saw from the world steel association, steel demand will increase next year. zinc at the highest since 2000 seven after european smelters had to halt output after the ongoing energy crisis hitting those factors. when it comes to soybeans, we continue to see the rally. new u.s. sales going to china so that really helping the picture when it comes to those cranes and taking a little bit of a rebound in the new york session. when it comes to the commodity space, we have seen the commodity index reaching the six year high. the world's oldest commodities index has also hit a record. we are talking about the industrials index that tracks its origins to 1934. paul: some interesting stuff on
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that index. some of it i had to look up. burlap. made from jute. rendered be fat. i had to look this up. you can find a full leader tub. $97. i don't know if that is more than it was a week ago. i am new to it. shery: it was interesting about this index is it tracks the physical market. some of those really unknown unique products. it has hit a less speculative demand. the fact it hit a record high tells you these commodities surges we are seeing may be here to stay given the demand and supply dynamics. paul: the products are old-school and so is the trading. no futures on that index. jet engine maker rolls-royce holding so the aviation industry will have to spend big if it is
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to lower emissions and become more environmentally friendly. the ceos said multiple solutions will be needed to transform a sector entirely reliant on fossil fuel's. >> you have different technology solutions for different applications. for a very short distance with relatively few people, that could be a pure electric aircraft. all the energy stored in a battery. something that goes a little bit further or perhaps has a few more passengers, then it might be a hybrid electric solution or a hydrogen fuel cell. for summing that has lots of people and goes a long way, the only way we as a whole industry can see of storing enough energy in a small enough space with a small enough weight is to use synthetic aviation fuel.
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there is not one answer to the problem, which is why you are hearing different answers. it depends on the context. >> does that mean effectively you are going to have to develop three different types of technologies? i am assuming that is going to be relatively expensive. >> as a sector, there will be multiple types of technologies. it is expensive, but if you look at what exists today, the situation i described, they would all today be guest turbines burning fossil fuel. a smart -- a very small gas turbine is complete different from the large agent you see behind -- large engine you see behind me. i don't think in terms of incremental it is a lot. >> in terms of what you do at rolls-royce, you are experts at guest turbines. does it mean as we start to progress down different routes
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for different solutions that ultimately you are going to rebuild rolls-royce to be able to satisfy the varying needs? >> there is something in that. lots of our technology is guest turbines. -- is gas turbines. in the business of taking stored energy and turning it into useful power. at this moment we are busy flight testing and electric airplane. we are hoping to break a speed record for flight. the expertise is about making this conversion of energy worked in the air. that is what we have got decades of experience at. it so happens guest turbines is part of that and has been a solution for the last 70 or 80 years. as we look forward, there will
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have to be multiple solutions. paul: that is the rolls-royce holding ceo. staying with the aviation sector, a safety and monitoring database is flashing warning signs as countries ease travel restrictions. our asian business reporter joins us for more. there are some disturbing stories of some rusty sounding pilots returning to duty. what are we hearing? >> good morning. we know that the aviation industry has been disrupted by the pandemic. by some estimates, 100,000 pilots are either working skeleton hours are on leave from their employers. that has left many of them out of practice and lacking the kind of efficiency which they had before the pandemic. we trolled the safety incident database in the u.s. funded by
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the regulator. we interviewed pilots around the world and it is clear they are making mistakes as they come back to flying more regularly because they are rusty. these errors are minor. involve things like difficulty landing. the plane coming in to high, too fast. flying at the wrong altitude momentarily. there have been working incidents, which could have led to a disaster. for instance, one pilot start -- one pilot forgot to start his second engine for takeoff on the runway. another pilot forgot to put the landing gear down when he was coming in to land and pulled up at the last moment. another case, the pilot turned the wrong way. all these instances have had one common factor. these pilots had come back from
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a lengthy leave. shery: i am getting heart palpitations listening to you and reading your story because i have a terrible fear of flying. can i at least trust authorities to fix this problem? are there some airlines that are retraining pilots better? >> authorities have been open to these risks almost immediately when the pandemic was declared. they have developed retraining programs for pilots with the clear knowledge they will need checks on their proficiency. this would involve bringing them back to the simulator, the flight simulator before they are allowed back in the air and also taking others'safety measures. risk mitigation measures.
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having more experience pilots on the same flight on the pilots come back into the air. the regulators are aware of the risks and they say the risks are under control. as yet, we have not seen a serious disaster from one of these errors. having said that, major disasters in the past have been rooted in seemingly minor errors. sometimes several of them joined up contributing to a disaster. paul: do we know if there have been any consequences for any of these incidents we have seen so far? >> not that i know of. in september 2020, there was a lion air flight coming in to land in northern indonesia. planted and skidded off the runway. a transit -- landed and skipped out the runway.
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it transpired the pilot had flown fewer than three hours in the past 90 days. the mitigation room measures authorities recommend are not as affordable and available to developing countries and airlines that do not have the same resources as airlines with stronger balance sheets. the kind of measures that airlines like qantas are making are not as affordable to every airline. shery: very disturbing story. we are seeing more economies reopen. bloomberg's asian business reporter. still to come, the last u.s. social network still operating in mainland u.s. china is shutting down. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scrutiny, a higher level of burden to comply with china's internet regulator standards. linkedin struggles in china started in march. the regulator said there was too much political content shared on the platform. at that point, they froze new sign-ups. if you compare it to the domestic social media companies, it is not that much. linkedin was the kind of shining light for u.s. social media companies in china because it is the only one that was able to operate in recent times. paul: does linkedin have a solution to this problem? >> the issue was the content. linkedin is supposed to be a social network or placed for professionals to interact with one another and find jobs. they are removing the social element.
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later this year, they will replace the platform with what they are calling in jobs. it is just a job posting site. no opportunity to share user content on the platform. their hope is that will allow china to comply with the internet right -- they're -- their hope is that will allow them to comply with china's internet regulator. it is probably modest, this impact on microsoft. linkedin was a shining light and it does not give much hope to other companies like facebook, twitter that for a long time have been barred from china but held hopes to eventually be able to operate in the country. shery: what is the outlook for microsoft in the country? >> i don't think it is particularly good. facebook and google have struggled to find a form, an entity that can operate in china. linkedin was able to do so because it reached a compromise
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with the chinese authorities, which was it would restrict the types of content allowed on the platform. in march, that is when along with the broader burglar tory cracked and we have seen from chinese authorities, that is one thing started to be hampered. morningstar thanks the regulatory crackdown is done. we don't expect further policy announcements into the fourth quarter. companies know where they stand. across political analysts, market analysts, i don't hear anyone saying they think the situation is likely to change or improve such that a u.s. media company could set up shop in mainland china. paul: ed ludlow in san francisco. we have australian companies adding more women to boards. this is a method we have tracked. a more women added to australian boards. representation up to 34%.
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some of those big corporate like commonwealth bank, westpac, those other companies to add women to their boards. treasury lines losing some. australia improving but still lacking internationally. shery: not to mention on the gender pay gap metric, it ranked last with the u.k.. after four decades of gender equality reporting in australia, the progress has been we have to take the victories where we get them. australia companies adding the most women to boards in six months. it is only eight. we will take the win. coming up, the market outlook as investors weigh earnings season optimism against inflation concerns. that is it for daybreak australia. daybreak: asia is next. this is bird.
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