>> the pandemic has changed behavior, as we've already seen, and consumers might be worried. >> on the labor and supply-side remains a risk. >> this inflation round is not transitory. we should take it seriously and central banks should move quickly. >> i have operated under the assumption that the fed is pretty much sitting on the couch and watching this play out. >> we should be opportunistically re-fleeting saying that inflation is above 3%, let's re-anchor it there. jonathan: let's get to the weekend. good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio.

your equity market of 14. tom keene, just going deeper and deeper into earnings season. tom: deeper into earnings season, a sigh of relief off the banks. taking it from the last hour, if you missed the last hour it was lights out with an important conversation with margie patel. as we go into industrial, companies away from the accounting of banks, it will be about pricing power. jonathan: i spoke to pepsico, they said they expect the price story to persist but there remains consumer price tolerance. if you have that pricing power, great. if not, margins will be an issue. tom: it will be a sector difference in growth and value. it is underestimated the partition in growth stocks between those with ample cash flow, persistency of cash flow, and pricing power, and the have-nots. jonathan: we get goldman sachs earnings, then it is on to in

america. lisa: retail sales at 8:30 a.m. how much will we see a softening? how much does this come into the narrative, the idea that people are buying less? we are seeing this in the auto sector. sales are slowing in part because of how high the prices are. jonathan: prices are starting to hurt demand. we have prices starting to hurt demand. lisa: clearly that has been the case across the board. from the surveys, people saying they will delay purchases of big-ticket items because they expect prices to come down, but frankly they don't want to put it out there at this point. jonathan: at this point, futures up 14 come up .3%. just trying to be collegial, keep it at a nice even tone. the bond market is higher by three basis points to 1.54. flatter curve on the session. tom: why is sterling going up?

jonathan: we have seen a decent move in euro-sterling? tom: the turkish lira is its own story. what i would say, and this relates to what lisa has been talking about, the pendulum of narratives going on. i have narrative exhaustion. jonathan: i have that, too. i keep saying price is leading the narrative. with equity markets down everything will collapse, inflation through next year, high prices hurting gross. we have these three fairytales of inflation fading and everything will be ok. the story on the screen is setting the tone every morning for whatever conversation we have. lisa: that is true. today's conversation ought to be more nuanced as we get more economic data out. we get the empire manufacturing data. that is a preliminary idea of how much some of the supply constraints are affecting what we are seeing for factories. at 8:30 we get the september

retail sales, and the expectation is for those to slow . again the story of slowing growth has not gone away. have we priced that in? work and we basically say that we are not going to try to give a narrative because it will be dispelled shortly? a: 30, goldman sachs delivering earnings, it is shocking to see the magnitude of the gains over the past year. we see bank of america so far in the lead. yesterday's price gains in the shares were the most going back to january. credit card loan growth was what i found the most interesting. 10:30 the university of michigan sentiment survey. we have seen a weakening. a lot of people say that it matters because it does not cohere with the optimism we've heard in the market. some people say it doesn't matter. the inflation expectations, how much does that matter that five to 10 year expectations have risen to the highest point in 2013 and a steady increase

despite the fact that the dirty word, the t-word, is thrown around quite a bit by officials? jonathan: morgan stanley is still positive in the premarket, but a downgrade from rbc and our friend, downgrading to neutral. basically saying that the outlook looks pretty well-priced by the likes of morgan stanley. that is the opinion of rbc. tom: there is a mystery about the synergies and value out of those e-trade. i got some pushback yesterday on that, on the earnings enthusiasm of asset management. people saying how good is it? it might be part of the mystery. jonathan: let's start here. the inflation, you say that they are wrong. why? dan: we have been trying to analyze this post-pandemic time

on a cyclical basis or calling it a paradigm shift, that's missing the mark. the ability of the u.s. economy to sustain upward pricing increases on the supply or demand side is really not there. on the demand side i think that it's important to understand we are about to go through a contraction in household incomes. we have had an enormous amount of support for household incomes over the course of 2021. in the first quarter alone we added 17% to household incomes from government transfers. that is compared to last three must compared -- last three months before the pandemic. it was an increase of 15% over the first eight months of the year prior to the pandemic. this is an enormous increase, and this is evaporating. the last left on september 6. we are about to see the impacts in q4 numbers. lisa: there is a distinction.

forgive me, but there is a distinction between the year-over-year comparisons, the idea that we got the surge of cash, and where the new normal is. we are looking at real pressures for prices, for how much salaries are going up. i wonder how you factor in the idea that, yes, wages are going up and all indications show that there is a tightening in the labor market that will send them even higher? daniel: i will get back to wages, but let's hit the supply side. it is clear if you look at the cpi numbers from yesterday that there's no rollover of inflation into non-rent surfaces. they are adjusting back to where their trajectory was prior to the pandemic. as far as goods are concerned, clearly we have enormous goods inflation caused by an enormous amount of bottlenecks in the system. these will be resolved in time.

from the standpoint of what we jacked up in terms of foreign production to service a huge increase in import demand, that will continue. we are going to have those factories producing, and producing at a very elastic prices. , shipping costs have gone through the roof. the u.s. dollar is lower than it was before the pandemic. by definition, factories in china are making less but furnishing the volume. we are having difficulty getting containers off of boats and distributed across the country. this will end at a point. as far as wages are concerned, i was fascinated to see that so much was concentrated in low hour jobs, jobs that don't offer a lot of hours of work. you see enormous spikes in

hourly wages for job categories where people don't work that many hours. secondly, huge concentration was in the 16-24-year-old group which over the summer benefited hugely from demand for teenagers for summer jobs. you have to go under it. this is not a typical recovery. tom: the heart of your fabulous paper, as you say, forget about cyclical, forget about structural, forget about all of the fancy stuff at cornell. the word is unique. define unique and how that gets us back to moderate or even a lesser disinflation. daniel: we had a shutdown of the economy worldwide. we have a difficult time getting it restarted. the notion that there will be disturbances a show shaded with that should be easy to understand. the uniqueness is that these

things are going to pass through the system. after that the question is, where are we going to end up? here is an example. look at the evergrande situation in china. they will have to cease their engine of growth investment over the construction and real estate assets. where will it turn to job creation? you might have to turn back to the export sector to continue to increase job growth. what is that going to do? it will create additional utter flying wings that will flap in the direction of the west -- butterfly wings that will flap in the direction of the west. that is an additional factor above other things that will restore things to pre-pandemic status quo. if you keep looking at this and track every single movement on a weekly or monthly basis and trade activities and think that that has some sort of paradigm aspect, i think you're wrong.

jonathan: a great read and great to catch up with you. i want to talk about a single name. positive in the premarket, down the week by almost 4%, -3.9 percent so far. the team ranking the following, thousands of workers at the world's biggest farm machinery worker began picketing on thursday for the first time since 1986. they want a better pay. because this company has been minting money. tom: the huge mystery, the labor share debate shifted. jonathan: i think that it is shifting. we are witnessing that taking place. it is a real moment for it. good morning on radio, tv, for our audience worldwide. your equity market is positive up .3%. we could close out the week on a little high. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> in germany the social democrats has sealed an initial coalition deal to form a new government. the social democrats, the greens, and the pro-business democrats agreed on the basic principles for forming a routing alliance. scholz will succeed angela merkel. brent crude has reached -- crud futures have jumped in recent weeks as gas prices hit records while the price hike raised prices for oil producers. it is slowing down economies just emerging from a pandemic. it is a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry. the securities and exchange commission is poised to allow the first u.s. bitcoin futures etf to begin trading. unlike bitcoin etf applications

that the sec previously denied, the proposal was based on futures contracts and filed under mutual fund rules. in california, former president bill clinton has been hospitalized after a your logical infection. --after an infection. he will remain at the hospital for observation. bill clinton is 75 years old. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i don't think that anyone can

doubt that we have an inflation issue, that the fed in particular is late to this issue, and that we risk a disorderly tightening of policy. i think that most people see that as a risk. but we haven't understood fully is how the conditioning of markets, the behavioral conditions of markets can change. jonathan: there is an urgency in his voice that i have not heard in a long time. tom: i would agree and i would go back to his foundation, a world-class expert on game theory. we heard this morning people push against that. the bottom line is that it's a fancy phrase that i flunked on the exam. the answer is that they have diminished degrees of freedom if they lose control. jonathan: you're listening to bloomberg surveillance. i assume some of you are watching it too. tom: nice, jon.

jonathan: smooth. it was on radio and tv, it was meant to work. wti reclaiming 82 on crude. up .9%. if you follow the global contract, brent crude through 85 earlier, 84.79 right now. we haven't been there for about three years. tom: if you are tuning in, tuning into the end of october and the end of the year, it is the rate of change of commodities. it is jaw-dropping. i announced my chart of the year this morning. jonathan: you have a chart of the year? since when? tom: i have been doing a chart of the year for 20 years. jonathan: i thought that you did book of the year. jonathan: i do book -- tom: i do book of the year, album of the year. lisa: we get bowtie of the year. jonathan: that was rude of me.

i interrupted. tom: this is not the bowtie of the year. jonathan: tell us what the chart of the year is. tom: the rate of the change of commodities. it is jaw-dropping. other than the 1970's, it has happened maybe two or three times. lisa: what was it last year? tom: nothing like this. jonathan: i don't remember it. lisa: i don't either. tom: i read did between deficits. never done that. that is why i used the commodity index. jonathan: that is why it is chart of the year. on october 15. tom: if i do a commodity chart i have to do -- jonathan: is it this week? it is october. i don't even know when it is. lisa: when is the road trip? jonathan: you can add that to the road trip, too. tom: emily wilkins is with us

from bloomberg government. i want to talk about nancy pelosi. some say a final lap. she has to have a hope. what is her hope right now to stagger through the sunday talk shows and stagger into 2022? emily: as far as the short-term, what speaker pelosi's hope is is that she has the white house behind her, a lot of democrats behind her, and there is a willingness in washington among democrats to get this done. the senators from arizona and west virginia notwithstanding, pelosi thinks she has the ability to get things done and she has her caucus behind her. when you talk to democrats in the hall and say how does this get done, i've heard people use the phrase "pelosi magic" and how confident they are that she will get something across the finish line, that this could potentially be her final term before retiring.

while no one in washington wants to predict what pelosi will do, this would be a big note to go out on if she can get it done. tom: are we wrong in my simplistic view and how lonely the moderates are? how many are there? emily: it depends on what you want to define as a moderate. we haven't seen the moderates really be entirely cohesive. we talk about moderates that have been seen as roadblocks, but if you look at stephanie meyers, moderates in the house, they want to get things done. some are from big swing districts you have to appeal to republicans as well as democrats. they say, yes. we not only want to get this reconciliation package done, we want childcare, health care, and we think these are good things to run on. you see division among moderates, those are fiscally conservative and not fans of the large social spending package, and those that think that it has many good things that they can

run on in 2022. lisa: deadlines that they have imposed on themselves, what are deadlines on the spending plan for the fiscal and social infrastructure? emily: the next deadline coming up is october 31, when the house will either need to move the infrastructure bill, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and so many would like to do, or pass another short-term extension on critical highway programs. what speaker pelosi has laid out is in doing so, passing the infrastructure bill, they will be able to pass the larger social spending package or have made enough progress on the social spending package that we will know a top line. december 3 is for the debt limit as well as to keep the government funded from not going into a shut down. it seems like we have a lot of time, at least a couple of weeks for the first deadline and more than a month for the second, but things move slowly in congress, as we've seen, and it's not that

much time at all. lisa: i want to shift back to covid. yesterday biden gave a speech on how to counter covid and how she would like to see more companies impose vaccine mandates. how polarizing is it? is it getting more acceptance broadly across not only democrats, but republicans? emily: we are seeing opposition against vaccine mandates that seems to be consistent among republicans, but if you look longer term we have seen republicans stand on vaccineship. some republicans far to the right of the spectrum have said we are not anti-vaccine, we just think people should make their own decisions on their own time. you have seen republicans come out and publicly get vaccinated and encourage other individuals to talk to their doctor and take their doctors advice. we have seen -- there dr.'s advice. we have seen republicans shift a little bit. you have seen mandates come into

play and companies finding that as they put the mandates into play the number of employees they have who are vaccinated seems to be going up significantly. jonathan: this one is getting louder and louder with the likes of tyree irving getting caught up in this. the basketball player -- priory irving -- kyrie irving getting caught up in this. the basketball player for those outside the united states. because you have to be vaccinated to go into the berkeley center or madison square garden he can't play. tom: i think that it is there and to me i defer to the people at johns hopkins who i think stated this, it is a gradual evolution. some people would like for all of this to happen right away and there is no history of that in any pandemic. it just takes time. jonathan: the focus on athletes, away from the vaccine debate,

you compare yourself to a professional athlete with eight percent body fat and 24/7 access to the best medical care available -- isn't that totally un-relatable? why is that a decision encz mark for anybody? tom: it is 24% body fat. jonathan: we are talking about someone else. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: we got a confirmed that alanine week is actually this week to make sure that people don't think that we are making things up. it is this week and it is today. tom: i will see you at dulles this afternoon. jonathan: we will fly in tonight. the nasdaq is up by about one third on the russell beyer half of 1%. it is all about the 2's. 2% away from an all-time high just like that. let's get to the bond market and talk about how the narrative has switched just like that. from a market that was down, worried about higher prices, the market is up, and all of a sudden you're dreaming about

2022, a land where supply chain issues fade and inflation drops back towards 2% and gdp runs forward. that sounds good, doesn't it? tom: that sounds good, but i would take a point that inflation doesn't have to go to 2%, it can stay inflated and the bulls still have enthusiasm. jonathan: and the debate right now is unresolved. yields 1.5371. friday, up by three basis points, 2.05%. the shape of the curve, in and around 98 basis points for the five-year. right now 97.9. the curve is flatter. tom: i love your global wall street 7:30 data check on friday. you are prepping the show for the real yield. jonathan: of course, i am. what did you think? that is the reason i and here. tom: it is not about us.

jonathan: you know it's not. [laughter] tom, clearly. the curve is flatter, let's get to the stock movement. let's say good morning. >> good morning. if you're looking to more evidence as to the potential for some of these inflationary pressures, alcoa is actually reinstating its dividend for the first time since 2016 after the spinoff. it is an interesting read. the commentary out of the company is that they see the pricing power sticking around for a little bit longer. the company is reporting great earnings. $3.1 billion in revenue. 201 and change on the etf. the ceo seems to think that this will stick around for a little longer. core shares not only up before the stocks, it has been on a phenomenal run.

at least among some of the large-cap companies. keep an eye on the bitcoin crypto space. the folks at bloomberg intelligence have been saying for a while that bitcoin futures etf is going to happen in october. we have new reporting based on people familiar with the situation saying that the sec could sign off on this in a matter of days. at least two bitcoin etf futures could start trading as soon as next week. it has put upward pressure on bitcoin. pretty much everything in that space, if you're looking to buy, this might be the point. tom: am i going to be able to put those etf's of bitcoin into a retirement plan, into of 401k? romaine: i think you need to talk to your financial advisor and assess all of the risks, tom. usually, just to be clear, at your age, usually people de-risk

and move into something less volatile. that is neither here nor there, here are options if you're looking to take the risk. broadcom on broadcom over at goldman, this is saying that the company has a lot of pricing power in the chips and semiconductor space. the same analysts downgraded western digital saying that there is issues in the digital space. virgin galactic is down almost 20%. this is your biggest decline pushing back the potential launch of its commercial spaceflight to the fourth quarter of 2022. tom: i will have to call my broker and de-risk. jonathan: i will take more risks when i get older. aren't you planning to do that? the older you get the more cigars i will smoke him more i will drink. -- will smoke, the more i will drink. there is a fantastic football

player born in the south of italy. he said when he retired the only thing that he wanted to do was to get really, really fat. i think he did that. i think that the older you get the more risks you should take. you get to 85, 90, you do your thing. how close are you? tom: i feel better already. jonathan: this was a pep talk. feel better. tom: maybe ian will save us. lisa: i think he dropped out. tom: he is not de-risking. i loved your note and i wanted to talk about who is under the bid on treasuries. who is making up the demand for the people, the giant norm is people, the little people -- ginormous people, the little people, buying this stuff. >> who is the incremental buyer?

this speaks to the idea that unlike in any other asset market treasuries trade off of macro fundamentals more than they do each incremental flow. we can point to the japanese as finding treasury attractiveness in this environment and domestic investors are starting to step up to take down the treasury supply at auction. fundamentally, what's going on is the outright level of yield is more a function of the market space and monetary policy to fight inflation and the ability to predict the forward path of policy rates. we are in a relatively low volatility environment. tom: my broker is talking to me about de-risking and shortening duration to the 97-year austrian piece. are we making a colossal mistake as everyone is in short duration? are we misjudging the value of the yield out further?

ian: i do think that there is a fundamental argument to be made that the macro shifts that were in place before the pandemic haven't changed. we have a global demographics issue. we have technology being truly deflationary over the long term. we have supply chain issues at the moment, but i suspect that into were three years when we emerge on the others of the pandemic we will find that the global economy is not that much different that it was in 2018 and 2019. i would wager that is what people are making at the moment. lisa: do you buy the 97-year austrian bond that tom keene is selling? ian: i would have to contact my financial broker. lisa: deal by duration with the expectation that we will revert to something more normal with more debt? this is the argument that we

have a more indebted society, that the trends in place before our more entrenched and will keep treasury yields on a downward path. do you agree? ian: i agree. we see that structural change. sure, we will get back on rates. we have seen it over the last week and a half, but they end up being buying opportunities and it's more about arrange compression over time then it is a repricing 10-year yield as 3% or 4% as we may have anticipated in prior cycles. lisa: is there any discrepancy with people bringing forward the expectations of fed rate hikes year and with two being 10 year and the path of where things are going? do you think that something has to give, or that they are very much in sync with each other? ian: i suspect that what we are seeing at the moment if you look at the feds fund futures market, for example, is there is a

strong tendency to price in whatever the prevailing market expectation is on a rolling basis. on treasuries, on hold -- i suspect that will occur on a rolling basis. fast-forward to q1 when we have more data in hand and a better sense of whether or not inflation is truly transitory, i suspect that the first rate hike will be pushed out well into the fourth quarter if not the first quarter of 2023 will stop that is extremely typical in what we have seen in the futures market behaving in treasuries. tom: maybe remit and i might be out of order, but you're so good i will try it, is we are in corporate earnings season, by back east of cash is an important theme. how many people drop large bond issuance out there with some, all, or most of that used for

share buyback? is there a permanence to that trend? are we going to see use of debt to buyback equity shares? ian: i do think that we see that cyclically. i might not share the idea that it is permanent, but i think that it could be with us for a while. rates are lower, recapitalizing companies, giving money back to the shareholders, and taking advantage of not only lower outright yields, but also on net lower borrowing costs in dollar terms. i think that is important. that gets to the bottom line for a lot of corporate borrowers. jonathan: how do you think the bond market response to an upside or downside surprise? ian: we are in a defined range. what i will be looking at is retail sales in the context of the .4% increase.

retail sales are not interested for inflation. even if the consensus is down .2%, that is down and becomes troubling when we think about third-quarter gdp. all else being equal, my knee-jerk response to the headline, we will be holding this range. jonathan: thank you. 8:30 eastern for retail sales with goldman sachs numbers. we break them both down in the next hour. next, the conversation you don't want to miss. sitting down with tom keene in d.c., the first ever bidding managing director of the imf. looking forward to that one. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the biden administration has

set up goals for limiting damage of climate change to the economy and financial systems. among the areas covered promoting resilience and also financial system protecting pensions and savings from climate-related financial risk and making federal government procurement decisions with climate in mind. in the u.k., as many as 43,000 people may have been wrongly told that their coronavirus test was negative. the government says that is because of errors at a private laboratory in hampton. testing operations there have been suspended. amazon has appealed 865 million-dollar fines over the european union's data protection rules. in july regulators and luxembourg said the company violated rules through its processing of users' personal data. amazon denied that there was any data breach. shares of virgin galactic are falling. the company founded by richard branson is pushing off its start

of commercial flights into space next year. there was a potential issue with joint materials in a lab test and says that the carrier aircraft needs even further inspection. it was the worst september for auto sales in europe since 1990 five. used car registrations plunged 25% to less than 973,000. that put the industry on track to do worse than last year's disaster is showing. they largely attribute the drop to semiconductor shortage. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> one of the problems that we didn't foresee is we couldn't place inflation targets. we assumed, it is in the books that we wrote, that you would be able to reset the target as economic knowledge and circumstances changes. we've never seen targets get raised for inflation coverage. we should be opportunistically re-fleeting saying that inflation is above 3%, let's re-anchor it there. jonathan: wonderful voices on the inflation debate. on the other side of that mohamed el-erian earlier this week. from new york city, good morning. your equity market with a closeout of the week of 18 points. the yields are higher, up three basis points to 154. bitcoin is rallying, crude is rallying. of 1% on oil. tom keene, your next stop, there are two of them at the same

time. retail sales and goldman sachs results. tom: i wanted to see how they do. interesting how they do in the equity trading area. we spoke to adam pozen, we now speak with the former first deputy managing director and interim managing director of a tumultuous imf and what is so important about his work at john hopkins is not his public service, but that he was in the crucible of the financial crisis of 2007, 2008, and 2009. with the uproar on data integrity, when you were at the imf did you in each instance see data integrity? >> absolutely. it is completely important and central to the imf being able to conduct its work in an

authoritative and comprehensive way. it is critical. the imf over the years has made great efforts in conjunction working together with member countries to improve the production of data, to improve the quality. that goes on. in the current context the imf will redouble efforts to create confidence in their data. tom: if my memory serves me, you made a landmark speech in hanoi in vietnam. you said southeast asia matters. is the crisis at the imf a time to at the margin give more governance to the pacific rim? john: first of all, i think that we need to take a look at the ipf that there is a crisis at the imf. there has been a kerfuffle of

importance. yesterday the international monetary and financial committee, the executive committee of the board of governors, reaffirmed confidence in the managing director and essentially said let's move forward from this problem. for sure it is going to be important that the imf membership comes to an agreement, as it said it would, by december 2023 to have a new review of quotas. and in that review, for sure, the fastest-growing economies will be rewarded with a larger voting share. almost without question, one of the litmus tests will be will china become at least the number two country and the imf in terms of voting share? lisa: how does that change the tenor of the imf, the actions the imf takes if china becomes the number two? john: it is more of a matter of image and pride than actual day-to-day working. the members of the imf board,

the decision, political level decision-making body in the front, understands who china is, japan is, etc., etc.. in consideration of policies the weight is realistic. in terms of voting shares, details, and public image, it is of importance in ensuring the credibility of the institution. lisa: yesterday mohamed el-erian said that he is concerned about the diverting economic fates of the developed and developing worlds and saying that there are big potholes and vulnerabilities getting developed that could come to a head in the near future. do you agree? john: absolutely. that was one of the principal themes of the imf's world economic outlook, that the recovery is showing diversions and looking forward the diversions will get bigger. many of the developing countries are struggling in many ways that is going to continue into the coming year. action is needed. jonathan: always great to catch

up with you. a voice that i have always respected. that is a big issue for us this week. struggling with some of the same issues, the supply-side issues, the slow and china, the energy imports really suffering because of the prices that we see on the screen. the additional aspect is the central banks, the nature of the financial flows, the very nature of central banking and the e.m., they don't have the luxury of time in the same way that developed market central banks do. they have had to hike, hike quicker, and hike in big chunks. 100 basis points in brazil and 125 in chile. some big moves. tom: what is so important, and you alluded to it early, the idea of the haves and the have-nots. e.m. wrapped around commodities. the one nation that it always

looked to first to study is indonesia will stop it is an honest balance for a hugely populated e.m.. indonesia is the most interesting study to me of the dynamics you described. jonathan: india too. the big energy importers. then the international trade exposure, south korea. there are problems. the question to come back to, and i haven't gotten a clear answer, we are tightening a lot in emerging markets. wind that become a dm problem? -- windows when does that become an dm problem? tom: the answer is suddenly. everything is fine until it's not. he certainly lived that at the imf. i would emphasize now that you have to watch the ilio syncretic like turkey -- the idiosyncratic like turkey but with respect to the other dynamics. jonathan: tom keene, lisa

abramowicz, jonathan ferro. we will talk a little about football, inflation, and why the economy is slowing and could slow more quickly. an interesting one coming up. equity futures up .4%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> an exclusive bnp paribas open update for bloomberg. the first finals are set and indian wells. clinching his second come back win in as many days to reach the final four. the victory was the bulgarian's 100th at a masters event and his first in two years. he will face cameron norrie. on the women's side, she continued her excellent run with

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>> pandemics change behavior. consumers might be worried. >> shortages on the labor side and supply-side. >> interest rate, the whole bond market controlled by the fed. >> we should be reflecting. inflation is above 3% and let's re-anchor it then cash it there. -- we anchor it there