♪ >> i think the economy is on track to continue to expand. >> the recovery is showing divergence, and that divergence is going to get bigger. >> the macro shifts in place before the amendment have not changed. >> stop looking at the aggregates. this is not the typical work every -- typical recovery. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the rate hike debate starts early. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio," -- "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a rate hike conversation starting much earlier than expected. tom: it is the shock and awe of

the bank earnings last night. as we heard from lori calvasina, may be a tilt towards something more positive. this is the ambiguity. do higher interest rates signal gloom or a constructive and spirited economy? jonathan: this equity market signaling resilience right now. we are within 1.5% of record highs on the s&p coming into monday, in the face of a conversation about higher rates, and the face of a conversation about slower growth in china. tom: i'm going to go to the vix, 17.53 is a good place to start a monday morning. but i do take your point on the global slowdown. i thought jp morgan was really strong friday evening, michael feroli and the team, and bruce kaz munroe writing really showed the nuances -- and bruce castor and -- bruce kasman writing that they really showed the nuances. lisa: this really goes to the point we were making earlier in the show, which is how do they

hike rates at a time when this inflationary push is not necessarily positive for their economy? what do rate hikes do? are they successful in moving rates? the thing is that right now, they have no choice. there is not a sign that there is going to be any disinflationary impulse that is going to bring some of these bass consumer prices down in the near term, and they need to act. how do they counter this? jonathan:jonathan: it looks like they will move again, and maybe the u.k. follows. we have seen the bank of england flirt with interest rate hikes before and not deliver them. do you remember the under liable voice of mark carney on thread needle? didn't quite deliver -- the unreliable voice of mark carney on threadneedle? didn't quite deliver. tom: there's more nuances here

than just looking at yields. it is about culture. it is about export/import dynamics. ultimately, it is about the consumer. what do you read on the consumer in the united kingdom? jonathan: the consumer in the united kingdom is doing ok. in the u.s., very confusing. we had consumer confidence readings on friday, the second lowest since 2011. at the same time, the quit rate is at a record. if i quit my job, i am feeling pretty confident i am ok. for most people, it is a sign of confidence. you've got the second lowest read since 2011. can you reconcile those things? tom: you are dead on. jp morgan looking at the rising wages, a sustained move. i think that is a different story than weeks ago. why don't you bring in our guest here? jonathan: we've got a sequence to go through. we will go through the market action. then lisa will have the day

ahead. then we will bring in the guest. [laughter] yields are higher by three basis points. yields higher through the whole curve. lisa: indeed, as people try to figure out whether the federal reserve will come under pressure from new zealand and the bank of england. the idea here is how much has factory output really been hampered by the supply chain disruption, the labor shortages. 10:00 a.m., but get a sense of the sentiment among housing developers. this will be really interesting because frankly, supplies are not meeting demand. the price of housing has gone up 20% year-over-year. this has led to rent inflation that is really getting the attention of the federal reserve. how much can homebuilders meet that demand? sentiment has been souring as -- souring and is expected to do so further. apple is expected to unveil the biggest update to its macbook in

five years. they are going to be answering a lot of questions about supply chain disruptions that have caused them to cut iphone production dramatically. jonathan: this is where we bring in the guest. we are going to do that now. the u.s. microstrategy had -- the u.s. macro strategy had of esg. this is getting closer and closer. what do you make of that this morning? guest: it is definitely a tale of two curves. this kind of move is really being led by the island nations, but nonetheless, these rates tend to have a stronger correlation as they get into a tightening cycle. the question is, and it is a really important question, we have seen the movements in the past where markets get ahead of central banks. this is really tricky within flesh and as hot as it is. central bank's have very little

latitude of flexibility. tom: if you look at the hikes coming up, there's always an ambiguity. are we looking into a surprising resilience of the economy, where rates real and nominal are a good thing? george: the challenging thing about the set up, depending where we are coming from, you can argue this is a strong recovery and rebound, but it is more about what is the glide path going forward. how much can the economy handle? nonetheless, if rates are truly repricing and can lead the had to -- the fed to a repricing campaign, we will see it shortly. lisa: some are saying the markets are ahead of themselves pricing into rate hikes by the end of next year. do you agree? george: i think one hike is

possible next year. i think it is getting pulled forward. the speed of a taper is moving down as well. but if inflation continues to persist where it is, and there is a true risk of that going into march, while we are living through this moment, we could see rates go even higher, which will start to curtail interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. nonetheless, the bond market i think now is in control here. lisa: so if we see a potential taper, if we hike rates twice next year, is this a signal that we are not getting material selloff? george: still early days, and to hikes in the grand scheme of things is not a big deal.

but we are still very rate sensitive in the economy and financial markets, so if we start to flatten the curve, once the whole term structure starts to move higher and tends move above the earlier high, i think other markets will take notice. that is going to start to throttle back overall markets, and markets have not been linked to fundamentals anyway, so i think that is going to be the channel that is going to drive the whole story. jonathan: that's why the front end of this story is so detached. this chairman powell have the support he needs on the fomc going into november 3 and beyond? george: november soared, shut -- november 3, sure. i think beyond is much more of a question. we have really never had bond vigilantes show up. we had moments of selloffs, but in the front end it is much harder to push back.

the fed will really have to say that we are beholden to this inflation targeting. at this point you can't say that because it will add fuel to the fire. jonathan: we are creeping higher on the front end. i am wondering whether we are starting to build up a market test for this fed for the upcoming meeting. this is when rates doubled after the low. i'm not sure that is where the fed wants to see it. george: sure, but there's not much they can do in terms of projections. this whole week we have a slew of fed speak that will try to talk about the markets. we will see if markets listen. at the actual meeting, you can try to go for a devastate per, but nonetheless, the question really becomes, starting in november versus december. the bond market has been absent for years of central bank liquidity. after that goes away, it will be

the first market to feel the brunt of any sort of central-bank largess receding. so if that is what we are seeing here, that is a big deal. jonathan: the fed is lagging here, not leading. it is really interesting. george gonclaves there of mufg. the all-time intraday record high from earlier this year was just shy of 65,000. we are in and around 61.5 now. some reporting indicating the sec would give a bitcoin futures etf the green light. we now understand from "the new york times" that a bitcoin futures etf will launch on the new york stock exchange tomorrow. tom: for shares of bethesda maryland, they have been around for ages, and they do things off of the beaten path. they have a mutual fund out now. the difference between a mutual fund and an etf is really

interesting. this is not my wheelhouse, but an etf on cryptocurrency is really a step forward. not the debate over bitcoin, but certainly a validation of the internal process of buying, holding, and selling at a ginormous profit. jonathan: which you haven't made. i can slowly hear you get more depressed as you finish that sentence. lisa: the ceo of proshares saying this is a milestone, and saying also this conveniently gives coin market integrity. what it has is regulatory expectance -- regulatory acceptance, and that is a huge deal. jonathan: yields higher, up three basis point on tens. kicking off a brand-new trading week in new york city. good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: with --leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. foxconn has unveiled its first electric vehicle today, a milestone that can boost the taiwanese manufacturing's credentials as a better for apple's secretive automotive project. it is an edge -- it has an edge as the company ways expanding into vehicle. china is considering asking media companies from tencent to bytedance to let rivals access displayed content in their results. newburgh has learned china is considering the policy, which could be a big step in beijing's campaign to break down barriers among the companies. tech companies have already been warned to open their so-called walled gardens by allowing links to rival services. a big milestone for taiwan in its fight against the pandemic.

the country has reported their own local and imported cases of coronavirus cases today -- reported zero local and imported cases of coronavirus today. key legislation to fight climate change may not get the final swing but it needs to survive. west virginia democratic senator joe manchin has told the white house and congressional leaders that he will not support including a key clean power provision in the democrat spending package. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are emerging from a bottleneck. i don't see anything that

suggests prices in 18 months will continue to rise. firms are having to pay for those shortages, but for the rise today, they will be a rise tomorrow. jonathan: danny blanchflower pushing back. always good to catch up with danny. good morning. we are down 12 on the s&p 500, -0.3%. we are just a little bit lighter in the face of the conversation about higher interest rates. tenure yields the highs. now at 1.5966%. tom is on $86 watch on brent. we are just shy of that. on wti, $83.61, up more than 1% after eight weeks of gains. tom: what i say that's what i see on a monday, really linking -- what i see on a monday, really linking commodities into oil we haven't had in 20, 30 years.

something in the air out there. we've got to give a shout out to some of our commodity guests. they have been dead on. jonathan: when francisco blanch first started talking about triple digit crude, i thought, here we go again. really? but pretty persistent, as you pointed out. tom: among many others. right now on the underlying economics and dynamics of washington, emily wilkins joins us with bloomberg government. i want to go and accomplished young economist at the seat loose fed out of nyu. he is trying to measure the unmeasurable, which is how much debt is too much debt. the idea now out to an unimaginable 136 percent and who knows what. who are the deficit hawks in the democratic already?

este democratic party? -- the democratic party? emily: you have seen concerns from senators joe manchin and gift and cinema, but there are also a group of house democrats. it only takes three democrats in the house the stall any legislation, and you have more than that that are concerned about the rising debt and deficit numbers. the question is, will they buy the argument that the plan they are putting forward is fully paid for and will not impact inflation? there is some skepticism out there about that. tom: coming back from washington, lisa had to gulfstream for the weekend, so went through laguardia. with the infrastructure, laguardia is going to be gorgeous. that is a long-term value. how do you measure this in washington on social programs, or do you just do it? emily: big question is how long

are they actually going to get that is one of the main being debated right now, the process democrats are using, reconciliation, it limits programs. they can be funded for more than 10 years. progressives say americans will realize how popular they are and than they are going to have to continue, even if republicans begin to control certain components of washington. so that is the hope out there right now. but it is certainly a part of that debate as far as how much this is going to mean, what parameters you set it at, if you do means testing for certain things like childcare and only offer it to those who have low incomes, is that pope -- is that program going to be popular enough to have staying power. this is all trying to figure out a way to get to yes on that social spending, climate change, and tax reconciliation proposal. they've got that october 31 deadline coming up, and really at this point, publicly at least, they have not made a lot

of progress compared to where they were at the end of september. lisa: just to fact check, i was not on the gulfstream. i was reading michael zezas of morgan stanley talking about the potential for market applications going forward he expect the bill, the combined bill, to be about 2.5 trillion dollars, and for the tax hikes to not be fully priced into some of the earnings guidance, but for the boost to the economy make it longer term -- for the push to the economy longer-term to make it ok for investors. at that way you are hearing on the beltway? emily: to a certain extent, yes. particularly people who talk about long-term recovery. remember back in march, democrats did pass that bill to address some of the short-term effects with covid-19. president biden is trying to pitch this bill as america's long-term recovery. this is what is going to take us out of that economic debt we are

in and really bring america back to the point where it is strong again or get at least, that is the argument the white house is making for this legislation. lisa: is the agenda purely domestic at this point as we had to the end of the year? is there still air left in the room to deal with some of the geopolitical tensions that are beginning to percolate? emily: there's definitely oxygen in the room for other things. you have a group as large as congress, and there are members who can walk and chew gum at the same time. you do have people looking into what is happening with china right now you have the hearing for the ambassador that will be happening a little bit later this week. you do still have congress, particularly the house, trying to work on that bill to boost u.s. competitiveness with china. at this point, that is not something that is a priority for leaders, but it is something that democrats say they do want to see done. tom: i think this is great, emily wilkins talking about walking and chewing gum at the same time.

i can't do that. jonathan: it is difficult, isn't it? [laughter] emily, thank you. emily wilkins down in d.c. i wanted to build on a question on china, the international story. "the financial times" reporting a stunning story over the weekend. unbelievable. that china tested earlier this summer a nuclear capable hypersonic missile that flew at low orbit through space and narrowly missed its target, taking u.s. intelligence totally by surprise apparently. china actually denying this report over the weekend, but it plays into that ongoing friction , that tension between the world's two largest economies right now on everything will front. lisa: it goes beyond simply an issue of chips and supplies in some of the sick technological components we rely on. it goes to national security, and that does pose a question, especially heading into the election year. i wonder how much that is going to take the forefront,

especially as you see a relaxation of the approach from corporate america to china, even as the biden administration tries to take a hard-line. jonathan: tom, i know for a fact you've got a position on this. tom: i was absolutely thunderstruck. we need more information. i thought it was a great article. jonathan: it was a fantastic read. i totally agree with you. tom: can i mention a point? this is one of the advantages of the bloomberg terminal. argentinian peso, the visible market, not the black market come out to 100. we are at 99. has been a moonshot up from about 70, may be about 60 as well. what is so sad about that is a massive devaluation over 14 years is how linear it is. it is extremely well behaved. jonathan: there are some

problems in emerging market beyond argentina, that is for sure. joining us soon, dana peterson, chief economist at the conference board. looking forward to that. on the s&p 500 -- noun on the s&p 500. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills.

just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards.

jonathan: i would tell you if it was boring. it is not boring this morning. it is really fascinating what's happening in the rates market. equities down 0.2% on the s&p. pretty muted price action on the stock side of things. we are down by about eight points. three days of gains into monday, two weeks of gains into monday, and just off all-time highs. that is the story of the stock market. resilient for some people, complacent for others. nudge nudge, wink wink, lisa. [laughter] want to focus on the front end of the curve. this is the rate hike conversation being pulled in. 43 basis points. we have doubled since september 22. in the u.k., we are up 12 on the

day to 0.7%. we've had a big move in the u.k.. in new zealand, up 24 basis points. we had a big move there. we are at 1.68%. but the difference between the bottom to and the top is as follows. for the u.k. and new zealand, they are encouraging this move. the bank of england is signaling a rate hike. new zealand has delivered one and it is signaling something more. the u.s. is not doing that with chairman powell. the chairman's getting pulled around by this market a little bit. i want to put the emphasis on a little bit because it is not that dramatic yet, but slowly a test for the fed, which makes november 3 fascinating. forget to november 3, we need to talk about euro-dollar and october 28. on the meeting next thursday, after that, november 3, might we finally have the chance to talk about some central-bank divergence that we can push

through this affects market in a bigger way? tom: that is the central-bank game, but to me, it comes down to the collective ambiguities out there. i'm sorry, each story is different. jonathan: the story as indifferent as far as rate pricing is concerned. that is what is compelling about this moment, that the chairman hasn't dragged us there in the same way the bank of england governor has. the market has taken him there. that he's up a really interesting -- that tees up a really interesting one on november 3. they have set a move on tapering is complete we separate from any signal on interest rate hikes. this market is pricing the men. we are talking about qb ending, and this market is pricing a move -- about qe ending, and this market is pricing a move. tom: maybe pricing a more resilient boom economy. jonathan: possibly. that is the constructive way of looking at things. i don't want to make it too dramatic.

it is a slow-moving buildup to a bigger test for the federal reserve. we lost the conversation. how much support does chairman have yet -- does chairman powell have at that federal reserve? tom: you are hurting my feelings this morning. jonathan: why are you so upset? tom: i just think i am channeling john ryding here. you can have a better economy for rising rates are a symbol. jonathan: you are not alone. -- of lafayette college, he said we could head back to 2% inflation, 2% growth, and the fed won't need to hike. that was his view. tom: i thought krugman was brilliant this weekend. he had essentially a double negative, which is what the fed has to do. they have to wait and see because if they act soon, their

asymmetric risk of failure is greater than their risk of being successful. jonathan: which hat was he wearing, political or the brilliant economist that he is? tom: they have to wait. jonathan: maybe they will. the market is not. i am not here to make a call on it. tom: can we go to an optimist? jonathan: it is a pure observation about where this rates market is trading. you can do that now, tom. tom: let's do that. this is a really important conversation. it is the institution, and the chief economist. the institution is a conference board, and they really look at granularity that is out there. think alan greenspan. dana peterson joins us this morning. i love what you say. watch what they do, not what they say. you are fairly optimistic on consumption. dana: yes, we are. certainly we look at the august and september retail sales data,

even extracting away from higher prices. consumers came back and spent, even amid the delta variant. unfortunately, the better readings in august and september won't make up for the abysmal reading we saw in july, but july was really the start of the delta variant. we look at the data, they are starting to come off, so we had very good momentum heading into the fourth quarter. tom: very good momentum for the fourth quarter. is that in the central-bank view right now? is the central-bank saying everybody calm down? is that where you go, the fed has got it right? [laughter] dana: well, i think the central-bank is saying we really have to watch the data here. certainly we look at consumer spending heading into the fourth quarter. it could potentially be constrained, not because of a lack of demand. there is very strong demand for buying things, and rising demand for services as people keep

traveling, but it is really about inflation and transportation costs, and labor costs that have risen. inventories are clearly weak because you are having issues producing amid the delta variant, and once you move product across seas, it is really hard to offload them and move them by trucking around the country. certainly, prices have risen pretty aggressively. we can talk about that. but that may put off some consumers from buying. jonathan: meanwhile -- lisa: meanwhile, we've got mr. blanchflower at dartmouth screaming at the screen watching this, saying, did not read my report? you have read his report saying that typically, when consumer confidence rose over to the extent it has, it does portend recession. why do you not necessarily take his point that you get such a decline in consumer confidence, that is a telltale signal of something negative happening in the economy? dana: a few things.

we did look at the report. we did not ignore it, first off. he is right, there are many instances when you see a dip, a significant dip in the expectations gauge within our consumer confidence report, and that did follow recession. however, there were six or seven, maybe even eight other instances, were you did not see recession. also, it is very important to look at the level. the level of expectations is right around where we were in 2017. i don't remember anyone thinking we were going into a recession other than the fact that the cycle has been long. we know cycles don't die of old age. when you look at the details beneath the expectations gauge, there are more people expecting economic conditions and general conditions to improve relative to those who think things are going to get worse. so those are our views. [laughter] lisa: how fast is the economy have to grow, given how much debt we have, given how much we have leveraged up this economy

and are rely on consumers to deploy their cash? dana: that is a great question, but when we look at the u.s. economy, we are probably going to grow around 5.5% to 6% this year in 2021, and probably slow to 4%. even if we slow to 3% or even 2%, the economy grew on average 2.2% in the decade following the great financial crisis. even just before the pandemic, we were growing around 2.5%. so if we slow to 3% next year, we are still growing well above potential and even above the pace that we saw prior to the pandemic. just speaking of debt, certainly you see a lot of fiscal stimulus that added to people's wallets. but when we think about what people use that money for, 1/3 of it was saved, 1/3 of it was invested, and only 1/3 of it was

consumed, so there is still a lot left for people to spend on. tom: the conference board going back to world war ii and on from that. you see the glass half-full. what is the major misjudgment on q4, q1, q2 of next year? dana: certainly, we are going to have the debt ceiling and budget crisis debacle return to us in december, so there is still the risk of a shut. i think inflation really is the biggest issue we are looking at. we are expecting that prices are going to continue to rise on the year on year basis through the end of the year, and there are questions about how quickly they slow. there are some factors that are just not going to go away overnight. when we look at the semiconductor shortage, that is driving up prices for cars and high-tech goods. that is not going to be resolved overnight, and certainly when we look at other areas of inflation, rents, they were

depressed throughout the pandemic, so we should expect they are going to rise again, and that should put upward pressure on core inflation. so inflation is the bigger risk we are seeing in the short run for the u.s. economy. jonathan: just brilliant, as always. dana peterson of the conference board on this economy right now. we started the show talking about that difference between what we saw in consumer confidence, the second lowest since 2011, and the labor market, which is a record high quit rate, and the question of how do you reconcile the two in a simple way. i heard over the weekend, what's what they do, not what they say. tom: this is what we are doing there as there are 18 narratives out there. link lori calvasina with dana peterson. they are saying it is just not that grim. get on board the selected sectors she is talking about. dana peterson is looking, with the heritage of the conference board, at the consumption of

america. jonathan: the difference between time of the -- between some of the hard data and the soft data. lisa: the difference between a recession and a slowdown that is perhaps not priced in fully. consumers are not as confident as many people wanted. there was a story about how to $.3 trillion of excess savings around the world of consumers is not being deployed as quickly as people would like. there still is hesitance around the margins. is this a consequence? jonathan: coming up, matt brill of invesco on this investment grade corporate credit market. looking forward to that. futures down 0.3%. good news for the bitcoin bulls. your proshares bitcoin futures etf will launch on the nyse tomorrow, according to "the new york times." this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. on capitol hill, senate majority leader chuck schumer is running

out of time to break a deadlock among his fellow democrats over president biden's multitrillion dollar economic plan. he is facing major policy challenges and tactics by mitch mcconnell. if he could break the deadlock, that would aid the way to clear a second bipartisan infrastructure bill. russia is keeping a tight rope on europe's energy market, opting against sending more natural gas to the confident despite assurances from president vladimir putin that the country was ready to consider eddie steps necessary to save lives and markets. europe's biggest supplier since to plan more through the key gas root en -- gas route in ukraine. a property sump and energy prices have delivered a big blow to chinese growth. gross domestic product spent at 4.5% from the year earlier, down

10.9% in the previous quarter. there are signs of more pain to come as the country heads into winter and property curbs remain. beijing has signaled his not rushing to stimulate the economy, suggesting growth may just continue to slow. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> value has been really trash, and the whole value sector has so underperformed growth that

you wonder why anybody would look at value stocks. i think the pendulum has swung so far that you do have to look at value stocks. jonathan: margaret patel is not alone, the senior portfolio manager at market field asset management. yields higher by three basis points on tens. higher on the front end, much more in the u.k., new zealand, and australia. euro-dollar, dollar stronger through the bulk, $1.1592 now. spare a thought for goldman. bring out the tiny violins and play a tune loaded with sarcasm. that stock is up by only 54% year to date. those banks have been flying, and that bank specifically delivered big time last week. tom: i am glad you mentioned

that. it goes on to the enthusiasm of margie patel, and also mike darda. right now we go to double declining david wilson, looking for investment, capex, and the rest, and to take advantage of a phrase -- and to take a phrase, double dividing divestments. dave: companies will have to save money wherever they can. you figure from there that things will actually get newer. i say that because the government puts out an annual figure on the age of fixed assets, buildings and so on. tom: i am a fixed asset. ferro isn't. continue. [laughter] dave: that number, every year

since 2001, and since two years longer, the record since 1940. tom: this folds right into the infrastructure debate in washington. that overlays right on top. dave: look at it from the company perspective. capital spending, if you look at the first half, peaked in 2019, and it kind of drifted at lower levels since then. so the issue is when you get a renewed interest in investing in fillings and equipment and whatnot. tom: dave wilson in his earnings season over the next three weeks. right now, oil. stuart wallace years ago deciding that we would have the best oil team worldwide, and

part of that is will kennedy. joins us this morning. argue focused on demand or focused on supply? will: i think demand is one of the reasons why we are seeing such strong prices here. there are couple of things going on come as a general reopening of the economies and more strength. more people are flying, and india after the monsoon, for example. sky high natural gas prices see people looking elsewhere, and i think there's a lot of concern that if there's energy shortages, that will have to be replaced by diesel. so the diesel market is hot at the moment. it is already hot because of trucks, trains, and ships, but it is being made more hot by the fact that people will need it to

keep warm this winter. [laughter] lisa: you can take care of what you have to deal with at home in a little bit. i am wondering how much supply is an issue. the idea that a lot of the drillers cannot bring supplies back on quickly enough at this point to meet the surging demands. i look at opec+ not meeting its targets simply because of nigeria, azerbaijan have not been able to make the investments necessary to bring production online that quickly. will: i think that is right. opec demand, opec supply is clearly an issue here. they are not meeting their commitments. there are a lot of countries, as you mentioned, that cannot get to that 400,000 euros a day, so you're falling a little bit short every month. that is going to be more of an issue into the new year, and as long as they don't, there will

be more to come. tom: for those of you on radio, this is extreme every. jonathan: i want to know how jamie is positioned in crude futures, and what he think about the bitcoin futures etf that might lunch tomorrow. can we find out might launch tomorrow. can we find out? [laughter] will: i will get back to jonathan: you on that. these kids know more -- to you on that. jonathan: these kids know more than we do on this. tom: we need a kennedy offspring reappearance, don't we? jonathan: can you make that happen, will? will: i'm not sure the viewers will wanted. [laughter] tom: you've got to bring them in and give them a dad hug to make them even more miserable. [laughter] jonathan: well, thank you, sir. send our regards to jamie. will kennedy there on this commodity market. it is always exciting. tom porcelli's son, long the nasdaq since last year. these kids seem to have a knack

for this because they are less worried about the market than the rest of them. they haven't been conditioned by these big drawdowns 10 years ago. they haven't been burned by them. tom: let's pull it into this debate on the season. these kids are changing the rules for us. are we ready for what we are going to see from tech and other technology-based companies? i feel it a fossil, jon. jonathan: there's a new investor out there, and it skews a little younger out there. lisa: my younger son has actually asked for his allowance in bitcoin. he goes, why can't i just get a fraction of one? he's already much more involved in apple pay than anyone else i know. just throwing that out there. jonathan: you should let them. i think you should let them. you have to let people experience the market. we've always told people this. lisa: at 12, with your parents' money? [laughter] jonathan: sure.

it is important to let them build some experience. tom: what is the difference between the one share of ge i bought and a partial thing of bitcoin? it is a lesson. jonathan: i couldn't agree more. we have gone back and forth on this when people look down their nose at the new retail investor. i've always found that a bit uncomfortable, tom. i don't quite get it. let people experience the market. it is the only way to learn. tom: when i lecture on this, it is critical. you must learn how to lose money. you cannot succeed unless multiple times, you lose money. hopefully it is a little bit of money. i enjoy doing that. lisa: you lecture that bill -- you lecture vet bill about this. tom: it's a different story. they are in a blind trust. [laughter] jonathan: professor king. tom: but you got to lose money. jonathan: i agree. lisa: not my money. [laughter] jonathan: i will give him $50

come alisa. just open him on account. futures down 0.3% on the s&p. equities are a little bit softer. from new york, on radio, on tv, with crude rallying, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the economy is on track to expand. >> we are seeing a labor market adjusting. >> showing diversions and that is going to get bigger. >> macro shifts in place before the pandemic haven't changed. >> this is not the typical recovery. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning.

we