>> we see some really encouraging news that the economy is rick salary. >> it is not keeping up with inflation. >> it is gross margin expansion. >> margin input cost that are being passed on to the input consumer. >> we have inflation that is on the move. it is everywhere. >> inflation is not transitory. it is persistent. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. tom: good morning.

kaylee is in for lisa. we are getting ready for the weekend, and the stock market is going up, up, up. the two-year yield is that a new high. jonathan: this is so fascinating. price with a couple of hikes next year, and we have chairman powell speaking at 11:00 eastern time. is there. tom: carson is there with chairman powell and francine driving that panel. what is so important, and loses coming up later, this dovetail of a bond dynamic into the equity market that cannot be ignored. jonathan: it is off the all-time high, and they fear the interest rate. in the bond market, we have heard that it is a little more nuanced, but it is interesting. how do you reconcile a bond market on the front end with higher inflation? how do you reconcile those two

things? tom: pharaohs channeling his inner abramowitz. as we've heard from ups, there is an optimistic construction of economic growth and of markets that cannot be ignored. >> it is an earning story, too, tom. people are more bullish on this equity market. the reason why is always earnings growth rate earnings growth is going to continue to power equities. by and large, all of the warrior on supply chain issues and the potential for margins. companies have been withstanding it to a large degree. they have said they're able to meet demands. others, not so much. feel the burn.

everyone is claiming a disappointment. i used to be the east, and it is now out of the west. they're delivering the goods. we still of annuity for that are well,. we have to sit here and acknowledge how bizarre this moment is. kaylee products not chat. -- kaylee brought up snap chat. corporate america is reluctant to spend on advertising. they don't with the additional demand because they cannot meet it. that is a bizarre situation for corporate america to be in. jon ferro is going to begin with something i cannot do, which is battling the curve. jonathan: step chat is about 20%. twitter is down 3%. let's go to the bond market and switch of the board and at the treasury started. five year yield, and 10 years yields come in at 169. there was a break at 170

yesterday. there is movement at the front end. there's a bit more pace. there is a basement -- basis point on twos. seven days are going into friday. we are up 1/10 of 1%. tom: i see it. there is some serious stuff going on that has you making fun of me on the bell of the curve. this is what was called in the control room -- do you realize --. jonathan: is that right? tom: i'm try to get cut and chiseled. jonathan: are you doing it for me personally? is this the start of our promotion for davos on twitter? tom: this is for zurich. jonathan: we are live tv and radio, we will get in trouble with this. tom: i'm trying to lose some weight. jonathan: nella -- you're not allowed to say you're trying to

lose weight. tom: the chairman has some serious messaging to do, it is not going to be route weight. it is not gonna be about portfolio management or presidents and governors. what will be the chairman's message here towards that important fed meeting? >> you will try to push back on the bubbly narrative that inflation is something more than transitory. the fed did start moving faster than we thought, even 30 or 60 days ago. i don't think he wants to go there. the market seems to be kind of nudging him in that direction. is going to try and stop that trend towards inflation, which is a bigger problem. we have to think about tapering faster or rate hikes in the second half of 2022. >> we are testing the credibility of the central bank. do you think something is building here? >> i think something is building

here, by don't forget is the central bank. i think it is the dance between what officials at the central bank what to see happen, and what the market wants to see happen. sometimes, they are perfectly aligned, like they were earlier this year with transitory inflation, and sometimes they are not, that is what we are seeing right now. that is not as much testing credibility as it is the markets raising his hand and saying chairman powell, we have a little different opinion about things that you do, and our opinion metals -- matters to. what's have a consensus. >> would like to pick out points of tension and markets, and without getting too in the weeds, we had someone on the show an hour ago who said they cannot reconcile what is happening at the end, with more interest rent hikes, or on the long and with interest expectations. can you reconcile those things? >> i will agree with him that it is unusual, but the best answer you could possibly give is that

the market is going to get more worried that we are in some kind of long term inflation rise. if so, the thinking is that the fed may have to start responding to inflation by raising rates. that is something we have not seen in a generation in the market. if that happens, if that is indeed what we are going to, that is not a good scenario because risk markets like stocks do not like the idea that the fed has been removed from the situation and they have to respond to inflation. if they do not respond, the bond market will not like it. they have to push back against the narrative. >> let's talk about the difference between the bond market and the stock market, it remains high with volatility and you can see on the inditex this morning. how do you make sense of all of the column in the equity market and not another asset classes? >> first, mechanically, the vix moves with the market.

you should expected to go down. but your point is well taken. volatility is low. the stock market has been driven by one thing. every day, the market opens in every people have cast -- cash in their checking account, and it is making its way into index funds rate that is why you see the s&p really mostly go up. it is not as popular and index product. as long as cash flow continues to move, the market goes up and that damages the volatility on it. the bond market is struggling with the question about whether or not inflation is something more transitory. that is why you volatility there. >> with what you said there about lows, continuing to happen continuing to work, --. >> i think that will until it something changes the dynamic. if the stock market corrects,

they are not coming back. if you get to that point, that could change the dynamic. we are not there now, but we might be creeping in that direction. that is a story for another day. jonathan: chairman powell will be there. i like to share your thoughts with the audience this morning. do you think the chairman is a bargaining chip with progressives going forward? can you give me some insight here on what develops in the coming months? >> what we are learning is that it is harder to get an agreement among the party. republicans tried this in 2017. the democrats have this now. there is a debate going on between moderates and progressives about what they should be doing with the budget to infrastructure on the debt ceiling. we have some progressives who are dead set against chairman powell. to have an agreement, you have to give me something. you have to give me something substantial. they've made it known that

something substantial beef brainard as federal reserve chairman. the reason we have not heard that name resubmitted for nomination months ago, even though some are in favor of it, and the president. i think he is a bargaining chip. if needed, he will get deals done that will offer him up for leo brainard. we will see him in the negotiations for the next couple of weeks. jonathan: this is speculative, but how does that help you? what does it mean for next year, if that is the case? >> it is just leaving chairman powell off of the equation. you're probably going to avenue vice chairman, where the currents expires engineered. another governor will even the next couple of months. i don't seat in boston. dallas needs to get a new president.

what does it mean for next year? whatever your opinion about the voting mixture of the fed right now, we may not need to know five or six members on the fed and six months. it could be a completely different complexion of the fed, coming with a change of personnel. jonathan: love catching up with you. jim bianchi a bianchi research. yields are higher by a basis point across the board. tom: well you're speaking to jim. the two-year went higher. 0.5%. it is a benchmark. jonathan: 11 a.m. eastern time, chairman powell, on a panel conducted by francine later on. we will bring you that on bloomberg tv and radio. the equity market is up.

tom keene,. this is bloomberg. >> with first word news, the federal reserve says it will ban officials at the organization from buying stocks with trading. it is an embarrassing scandal for the fed. it is a path renomination, and some fed washers say that the quick actions will deal with senior fed officials. european government will result in a steep to tech china. they will retain core digital platform such as amazon and facebook. the global tax deal will come into effect, and they will refund any levies in excess of the agreed rate.

carbon reduction is lowered then anticipated, due to a mobile chip shortage. manufacturer says it will make 500 thousand fewer vehicles in 2021 due to lack of components. they previously predicted a shortfall of roughly 200,000. authorities are investing after confirming alec baldwin shot two people in an incident involving a prop gun on a set of a gun in new mexico. a cinematographer was killed and a director was wounded. the production has stopped. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and global quicktake. this is bloomberg.

>> the past has become more uncertain lately, and we believe

over that five-year time horizon, it will remain uncertain, and is because we think we are moving into what we call an age of transition. there are some also downside risk to inflation because of the pandemic over the next five years. with productivity and innovation, it really is just going started. tom: tiffany wilding from pimco. jonathan: this is bloomberg alongside tom keene with lisa coming back on monday. there are some really important things happening in the bond market. there is equity, and the bond market is shining right at me tom. one 10 to 168. but the movement on the front end, it is slow. up another basis point, the fives are high. we have not seen the since february 2020. fives are down to 124. this is where the rate hike is taking a price. the federal reserve is tapering.

the market is on board with this. the market is on board for weight rate hikes -- rate hikes. tom: up for the weekend, and the idea of developing discussion including chairman powell over to emerges -- emerging discussion. i look at, and i look at the long convexity of reality, -- the real, and how fragile is the em market right now? >> it is very fragile. i think you make a great point, it is a short build on the euro-dollar, unlike anything i've ever seen, and believe me, i worked in that market for many years going back to my days at goldman sachs, so it is pretty aggressive, and i think what it means is that will have a short turn now, it is subject to profit-taking, but it is spilling over into em. u.s. rates matter and we are seeing that places like russia,

brazil, and turkey. tom: i want you to talk to our listeners who do not have a phd in goldman sachs. is it essentially business as usual and trays be made? >> it is an unsettled feeling. you can see that it is 83.5. it is a vacation over here. china is about, ever grant has to be successful, it and it wasn't. we have to make payments to creditors, and we have 300 million in liabilities, and they still do. there are seven to 8 billion over the next year and a half. there is a lot of money, and the largest is about paying back to brazil. the spending cap in the real has broken down.

jonathan: we have the bank of russia early this morning, with basis points, and the market was at 750. morgan stanley next week at brazil. these are the numbers we are dealing with right now. we are looking at 125 basis points. ubs, next week looking at 150 basis waits. -- points. these are big moves. >> they are trying to get ahead of inflation. brazil and russia, two of the five out of 20 emerging markets that have positive two years yields, there try to stay ahead of the curve, and they are doing a good job, relative, but you are seeing eastern european blocks, and they are well behind the curve, with negative real yields. they're trying to raise rates, and we saw rates try to get ahead of the curve. they are struggling. that is the issue. they need to raise rates and make the economy more effective. investors need to come on shore

to foster growth. >> they are not raising rates, they're going the opposite. emerging market central banks like turkey are having a 200 basis point rate cut. i was talking to strategists, and i asked what they need to see happen in order to put turkish access -- assets in their port folio, and they need a rate point hike. that is not going to happen. how do you make sense of any turkish asset? >> thereto is look at turkey right now. you cannot short the turkish lira. it is 20%, so if you shorted against the ruble, i don't think so. the term structure volatility in the lira, turkey has to climb, relatively to the long, and that is the curve flattening, probably even in birth. even in the march of 2020, there

was a relatively value basis. >> on the lira, it was a record low. could this devolve into a full-blown currency crisis where the central bank us to quickly hike again? >> absolutely. i mean, run on the lira is definitely something that you have to be aware of. it is certainly viable. don't get me wrong, i really don't want to see that happen, but turkey was had been the right direction prior to the calling of the central bank, and the 300 bit rate in cut. >> nobody cares. steelers and titans. are you kidding me? the sealers split 60% of the time, and all kaylee wants to know is this? do you bet the underdog? >> i think it's chiefs titans this week. i will probably take the chiefs and that one, but look, let's

talk about the knicks game. double overtime the other night. i was up late watching it. it was pretty good. jonathan: you've been following that story about the boston celtics in china. >> an absolute nba player, he is on the boston celtics, i have spoken out against president she and china's policy towards debt, and they basically blacklisted and shut down a lot of links to the boston celtics, and we know going back to 2019 and 2020, they banned teams for a whole year in china. that cost them $500 million, but it was probably in the billions of dollars in terms of lost revenue. when nba players speaks out against china, like he did, and i don't to say it on air, but in our lifetime, he has been an

absolutely outspoken nba player, but it is something to be aware of. >> will other players follow? >> quite possibly, yes. >> an unreal story of the moment. thank you. tom, for a number of years you and i have been talking about things. jonathan: the big challenge for corporations and multinationals -- how do you keep this increasingly progressive base happy at home, and maintain aspect -- maintain happiness with china. tom: i was making jokes about it, but it is not funny. it is a serious new globalization. yet something local like basketball, and do you want to take it global? there are different rules. jonathan: tom keene and jonathan ferro with kaylee. your equity market is at an all-time high into friday. seven-day gains into friday. they are of three .1%.

a couple of basis points, but it is a two-year hike to get your attention. the i -- market is implying a maturity of inflation. from new york, this is bloomberg.

jonathan: live from new york city for our audience on tv and radio, this is jonathan ferro alongside tom keene, and lisa will be back with us on monday. this morning, we are with kaylee. the market is up 1/10 of 1%. the bond market is getting all of the attention. yields are down even with all-time highs, and the bond strategist on the front end of the yield curve, higher inflation expectations, as well. it is a sharp break even. we are breaking back max into thousand two. this is the breakeven, and what it is is tracking the real yield curve from the closest nominal treasury maturity, so let's take fives on fives, and you come up

with just short of three. we had three earlier. that is the implied rate of inflation on maturity. this is the highest on record. you can see the buildup over the last year. inflation expectations are building again, and at the same height --, time, rate hikes are as well. tom: i would suggested shades of gray of transitory. i have real trouble on transitory and court costs. like a gallon of gas, and i got upset on rent. jonathan: we can talk about that a little bit later. or do you want to talk about it now? the rental increase in my family --. tom: the rent increases we are seeing, all blank raisins is -- acquaintances, and it is bigger you can tell me that. jonathan: the issue is what the

fed is saying in the communication they are providing. the difference between them and what corporate america is telling right now, and global corporations. and then, how people feel. the difference right now is what the fed is saying, and people feeling, and what the fed is telling you. tom: there'll be in exile on main street. some girls would like to talk to us, and they will be listed as hard-core stones fans. i will never be your beast of burden. my back is broad but it is hurting. you are riding on the equity markets about the subversion. which one has your attention? >> there are signs that some pressures might be easing. burbles goods -- verbal goods -- durable good conception is up.

to john's point, just before i came on, it really depends on what goods or services you are talking about, and the timeframe. we have to get some balance back between demand and supply. one benefit to high prices is actually easing some of the demand pressures, and in the hope is that that force predates the feds need to step in more aggressively. >> you will be overwhelmed at charles schwab in the coming days with what we do at the record high. what do you advise? >> i think rotational leadership shifts, even from a rotational correction, which is characterized much of the year, is likely to persist, but there are enough offsets when there are pockets of week this that keeps the index level declined to a fairly benign degree as we saw more recently.

if i .2% drop in the s&p. you still have 91% of the s&p that has at least a 10% drawdown this year. the average drawdown is 18%. that type of environment persist. that is a pretty benign way to ease off of the excess valuation . if you deal with volatility rebounding insured -- instead of short-term reckoning, that keeps investors fearful. >> we are looking at a 14.93 this morning. can volatility stay on your end? >> the vix can stay pretty subdued, but that does not mean it is not going to continue to see some of these underlying leadership shifts and the swaps that are happening even on a day-to-day basis, where you see energy at the top of the leaderboard for a day or two, or tech at the bottom.

a complete reversal of that. the shifts are keying off these days with the bond market and what 10 year yields are doing. leadership shifts are keying off of the delta variant. that seems to be less of a force now, and i hope that stays in the rearview mirror. >> the bond market is strong and pricing at a much higher rate of vision over five years. i was reading your notes, and it is saying there is a shift from procyclical to countercyclical, meeting high prices drag on economic activity or inflation growth. can you differentiate between that and stagflation? >> stagflation uses a precise definition tied to what is going on in the 70's. it was not just week economic growth and higher inflation. it was high and rising unemployment, and to some degree, weak productivity. we do not have those latter two factors. whether we come up with some

catchy new phrase for slowing growth, i think this is more of a shift from procyclical that we had at the beginning of the reopening. demand pushed up prices, and now we have prices pushing down demand and economic. that is the way to look at it and liken it to the 70's. tom: what is the new definition of the debate of pricing power. we see it as a discussion of pricing power among american corporations. what is new this time. jonathan: we have not kicked in the psychological component that feeds into the price spiral that we saw in the 1970's. that is a bit more esoteric. it is not as easy to measure. there are no numerics associated with the. it is when psychology kicks in with workers. the psyche changes and they feel they have the power to demand

not just one time higher compensation, but a persistent basis. they feel they have a change to make a persistently higher cost. i don't think we there yet, but it is why the margin story and the outlook associated with that , as we go through the third quarter reporting season, they are more important than what the numbers are being reported. tom: inside baseball, and we can do this with liz, but i plodded today the index, minus the the gm x index which is one indication of the consolidation of the concentration of a given broader american stock market. it is absolutely original. give us an update on the dominance of profitable cash flow big tech? >> i think profitability, rising

urging -- turning revisions will be increasingly important, especially in an environment of growth, courtesy of higher inflation and transitory as it was thought to be the case. i think focusing on the factors that sort of separate you from the masses, and the beauty of some of those factors, especially rising earnings revisions, profitability, it is a higher growth and value factor. if you have a rising earnings revision, you have a rising denominator which means following. in addition to the volatility, that we talked about, i think a factor based approach makes more sense in this environment than trying to make sector calls. i think taking advantage of weaker growth and what that means for companies that do have that sustainable growth trajectory, moving forward, it is probably the best way to approach the market, especially

as doc maker. jonathan: thank you for your time. liz and from charles schwab. i want to pick up an individual move in the market, and you are checking this out as well, kaylee. it is a downsides of rise. we have talked about how punished you get when you mission -- missing the earnings during -- season. they are getting punished. >> the punishment is outside. 4% on average underperforming if you do indeed miss expectations, but there is always a 14% in premarket trading. it was larger than expected. they blamed macro issues and the delta variant, as well as delays in distribution expansion and customer labor shortages. we are not talking about shortages of just things that you need to produce the product, there is a labor shortage out there, and that increases on

these companies. jonathan: not everyone is being punished. there were earnings earlier, and they cut the outlook, and they cut a little on margins, and the stock has been doing off the back. it is quite interesting. we expected them to get smacked, but it has been ok. tom: this is a broader debate we have had earlier. we are so focused on american stories, and i am sorry, there is a resurgence. continental, and my right? they make cars. jonathan: the car that i drive. tom: there is a lot of information there as with unilever. jonathan: this statement is really about that. ultimately, when you rev and altogether, we initially as we come into september, worried about supply-side issues. it hits growth and margins, and it is hurting profits. it is also hurting revenue because they cannot meet demand

with supply chain issues. when you wrap things up, there are some winners and losers, but in the broad story, it is an all-time high that reflects it. jonathan: that is the equity story. tom: thank you for watching. always with a constructive frame, and he says, john, look. is the fed going to blink? jonathan: yes. chairman palette 11:00 eastern time. a little later, we will catch up with mohammed on the bond market. what it signals and a little bit of a tech brewing for the reserve. jonathan: it is a friday age -- thanks for being with us. i appreciate it. kaylee, thank you. leases back with us on monday. i appreciate you, tom. i cherish you. i know you need this, right now.

>> tom and john are going to go dancing tomorrow. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> with first word news. president biden says he does not think there were enough democratic votes to raise tax rates and a deal on his economic agenda. he believes he will get an agreement on the overall package. the president says these comments during it town hall, and a white house official says he was referring to corporate tax rate increases and not other provisions to increase revenue. germany has reap -- reached its deepest day of cases. more than five months. there were hundred and 60 deaths recorded since mid-may. german officials have it expressed optimism, but they would not need additional virus restrictions because at least 66% of the population has now been vaccinated. copper is rebounding as the

global energy crisis is roiling on the market. it popped prices earlier this week, having a record-breaking premium of futures. the concern is whether more metal will be delivered to ease buyers. ak pop boy band is ending its distribution deal with columbia records, and it will move to universal music group. universal musical group had been it pursuing bts for years. they also have k pup girl group black pink, which is been winning over western audiences. bloomberg, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quick take. this is bloomberg.

>> we are beyond the survival stage and into the stabilizing stage, and it is just a matter

of getting our staffing aligned well with our flight activity and our customer activity. it has been really sharp. the good news is that there has been a sharp demand for travel and revenues. tom: mr. kelly of southwest airlines is managing the message there. kaylee and i would like to manage the message on your next air travel with helene, a senior research analyst with airline security analysis excellence going back decades and decades. helane becker, you've never seen it like this before, but what will our industry look like in 12 months? >> i think it will be a lot better than it is now. it is in a transition phase. i thought it would last three to five years, for domestic recovery.

i was not counting on the government giving people a lot of money, and i think the stimulus has obviously helped travel. usually, if you have time, you don't have money. and if you have money, you don't have time. it's been, over the past six or nine months, we have seen a huge recovery in domestic air travel, and we expect that to continue. business travel should come back. in 2022, not all the way. 80% of the way. international, next summer, that should be pretty good. people will want to take those trips. tom: tell me about price discrimination and the idea of selling the cheapest seat up to a full price of eight full class ticket. i look at the ratio of business-class class to economy, and it is outrageously skewed. obviously, covid, all of that. are we going back to the normal

price discrimination seat per pandemic -- pre-pandemic? >> i don't how to answer that other than to say that people do not like to be squished into the back of a plane, and the airlines are seeing that more leisure travel is going up, if not first-class, then premium economy or whatever they call the first five or seven rows. to get just a little more legroom, and you have heard about all of the unruly passengers on board. part of it is just the squishing us, the wearing of a mask and the uncomfortable level. i don't think that will change. we didn't talk about oil prices yet this morning, but oil prices are up 60% year-over-year. at some point, prices have to come down, or ticket prices will.

>> i'm glad you brought that up because bank prices are changing and will not be profitable in the last of the year. why is it that they cannot exercise enough pricing power to offset the cost? >> the issue for airlines is that they sell 60% of their ticket within 90 days of travel. generally, you enter the first of the month having sold almost two thirds of your seats. the price that you set was using a fuel price that was sent to or three months ago. you are looking at the forward curve, and you are trying to figure out what the price is going to look like when a person takes a trip. we don't do fuel charges for domestic trips the united states. only international. there is a mismatch. you have to work through that group of tickets, and within the month, you can address it. we figured the regressions we have done show anything from two

to six months. united said they will raise ticket prices, and they just have to. excuse me -- one of the things that suzanne was talking about was rate inflation. especially for entry-level jobs, the market is competing with people like amazon or facebook or yahoo! or microsoft. you are seeing huge wage inflation at the corporate level, not just to entry-level jobs. you are seeing that in retention. we are looking at margin pressure over the next nine months, and the only thing they can do is raise ticket prices which will tamp down demand. >> is like you are reading my mind because i was going to labor, not because of the wage part of the conversation, but to get people to fly on planes. given a lot of the trouble that

southwest has had with vaccine mandates, how do you handicap that kind of issue when you are thinking, fundamentally, about airlines. wax i am not going to get into the whole vaccine thing. united has a lot of success working with their employees and getting the vaccine mandate everyone is done. it's just gotta be done from a safety perspective. that is the number one thing airlines talk about all the time. we want to be safe. that is the first thing. i kind of think that is not the job to fill. delta had 35,000 applications for 1500 spots. united had 20,000 for 2000. that is not the problem. pilots are a problem, and mechanics. no one ever talks about the fact that we are not turning out enough mechanics to key planes in the air. that is an issue. pilots, united -- they hired

1000, and they were going to hire 10,000 in the decade. america is not far behind. we have estimated that in order to replace the pilots retiring and handle the growth for 2023 and beyond, we need 35,000 pilots. that is an amazing career, and there are academies that you can go to that will help you financially, and that will watch you out if you don't have the skill set early, see don't wind out -- up going to the process of losing money. the issue for labor is going to be in the area of entry-level. airport staffing, the contractors the airlines used, catering, wheelchair runners. baggage handling, that is really where you having a hard time finding people to come back. tom: we gotta leave it there, but i have 18 more questions. we will do it again. she is legendary.

all of our audiences really care about the stuff. we have anecdotes. i just want to say that with all of this travel during the pandemic, i've seen service like i've never seen. have there been failures? yes. but all in all, it has been stunning with the close proximity with, and every flight has two or three jerks on it, but it has just been amazing what i've observed from the early people. >> i've been traveling for a large part of the pandemic because i started traveling very early on. last summer, i was told that i had to fly with a mask on and i did so. it is interesting to see the pick and travel. it has by a large been around air travel in general. it is changing. we don't see the viral videos as often, of passengers having tantrums on airplanes. tom: we are trying to get back to normal. we are going to get you back to a normal friday. there is all sorts of cross interference going on, including

a two-year yield of 4.6%. the gentleman from washington is coming up, but before that, chairman powell. stay with us. this is bloomberg, and good morning.

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to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue, stop market back at all-time highs. >> the market is climbing the wall of worry. >> not a problem for stocks. >> we don't think there is a lot of pain trade. >> that's been the story over the last month. >> it's an earnings story. >> our profits are going to be robust. >> we move our way through earnings season. >> is interesting to see th