tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg October 28, 2021 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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ever grande faces default. democrats begs democrats to back his agenda warning political futures are at stake. >> breaking news out of south korea, we are getting the latest industrial production numbers when it comes to the year on year numbers, we are seeing outperforming, 1.8%, really missing expectations of a gain of 2%. it would also be the first time we are seeing a contraction in south korean you're on your ip numbers since october of last year. when it comes to the month on month numbers, there is a contraction of 0.8%, which is a bigger contraction than was expected. for the reason we are seeing more pressure when it comes to manufacturing given that only the slowdown in china's economy, but the supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on production. you're on your numbers falling into contraction territory for the first time since october of 2020.
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>> we are in day three of the bond revolt after two really well days on the short end for australian bond trading. this is where we are at when it comes to the start of equity trading, the staggered open in sydney. profits soaring on the latest deal, making activity. the aussie dollar trading at 0.7533. you have the rbnz saying local easing is largely over. we are continuing to watch the bond market raise markets in australia, on watch for potentially an unscheduled buying operation. we saw three year yield slipping after the surge yesterday. the 10 year climbing in early trading. >> it feels like that bond market revolt when it comes to
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the global fixed income space. we continue to see what is happening across asia. we have the jgbs rising overnight as well when it comes to the equity space, futures down 0.2%. u.s. futures at the moment also down 0.25% after the bullish close we saw in the regular session, closing high for the s&p 500, nasdaq composite and nasdaq 100 as well. it has been about corporate earnings. crude prices right now up 0.1%. eking out another gain. opec-plus expecting a tighter global oil market for the fourth quarter. that helped prices a little bit. we are above the $82 a barrel level nearing the $83 level. >> the questions when it comes to investors is how much does
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the yield curve play out before we start seeing negative impact on equity sentiment? but also this bond market revolt, how far does that go before we get rba intervention to pull expectations back into line? all their expectations are for rba tightening. bets the central bank will call down the pricing when it comes to aggressive rate hikes. certainly this combination of heightened inflation, slower growth, is confounding a lot of people. >> not surprising some are saying this could be a new trading regime for fixed income space. we have seen those drastic moves in the treasuries market as well with a yield curve inverting for the first time since last year. we are talking about the 22-year-old -- 20 year yield topping the 30 year. government bond yield curves have been tightening.
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central bank's are forced to respond to inflation which will slow growth significant. >> we are going to talk about tech. what a busy overnight session. we had earnings disappointing. supply chain issues for both of these companies. apple and amazon's late selloff on the back of those earnings reports, looking to wipe out $200 billion in value. they fell off session lows after those reports really disappointed. microsoft is encroaching on it comes to the biggest company title. we going to talk about facebook -- the company formerly known as facebook, now meta. what does this mean for the acronym? we are expecting hardware developments out of meta-verse as well. a watch to compete against the apple watch in store.
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>> it is going to take time to get used to the word meta. we have been calling it facebook for how long now? facebook was introduced -- oh my gosh. it was a very long time ago when i first made a facebook page. over a decade ago or so. i mean, we have seen tech valuations stretched. you talk about the selloff we are seeing. this is after they were safe haven darlings during the pandemic. it will be interesting to see where we go from here as we start to see more reopening's. more details now on the two big tech earnings reports. causing shares to tumble after hours. both apple and amazon falling as much as 5% after revenue and outlook disappointing. su keenan joins us with the latest. both companies say supply chain constrains were an issue. >> tim cook saying it past $6 billion in the quarter that just ended and its impact will be much larger in the current quarter.
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stocks are down as much as 5%. they have paired the losses. -- pared the losses. the larger than expected supply woes driven by a computer chip storages -- shortages mainly. they have now been resolved. the fourth quarter revenue did miss. it was only a slight miss. it was actually a strong quarter, just not as strong as forecast. the constraints hit all manner of devices and particularly the ipad and the imac, hence lower sales in those areas. notably, sales in china almost doubled. services revenue came in far stronger than mentioned. the supply constraints again expected to continue.
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cook also said most iphones bought in the u.s. are paid for now on a monthly plan. you are looking at the old times when people would line up for the new devices. demand for these monthly plans on many other types of devices also increasing, so they plan to roll out new plans in that regard. analysts are saying revenue in most categories did miss, stoking fears about supply chain issues heading into what for apple is a very important holiday season. >> for amazon, the holiday forecast is in focus. there's a lot of concern this is going to be the end of the pandemic boom. >> for amazon it is not just supply chain woes, it is demand. the key takeaways, this is the first quarter by the way the new ceo andy jassy was looking out over of course. he took over from jeff bezos in
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july. labor and fulfillment costs could wipe out all holiday profit. they are saying they can have zero profit in the fourth quarter. that is really incredible and that comes from the fact jesse is saying the company is going to meet its obligations, but it is going to have to pay through the nose to do that. they found new shipping ports to bring in their containers, but they are paying premiums for those. notably the operating loss in international business was the biggest quarterly loss since 2017. they say the suppressed demand -- that is what everyone is listening for -- could last until mid-2022. compared to the pandemic, where everybody wanted everything yesterday, the numbers are down considerably. analysts say amazon's week fourth-quarter values were at the end of its range, falling below consensus. the company may not be immune to supply chain troubles pervading the retail industry even though
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they say they will spend everything to make sure they are not impacted. >> turning to markets now, joining us for the latest is our asia mliv editor. let's get started on this bond revolt. looks like the ball is in the rba court now. >> the ball is very strongly in the rba's court and it is not clear even if they send it back across the net with extra o omph. they let things get away from them a bit by very strong expectations it would come in to defend the yield target yesterday. they did not. at one stage, that got to five times as much as the target. something seems to be broken, at least a little bit, when it
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comes to the central bank's credibility. that is kind of the issue playing out globally. markets have lost patience with the idea that inflation is going to be transitory. that is potentially part of the classic disconnect between bond traders perspectives on the world and central banks perspectives on the world. it is the fact the rba has not acted so far, goes along with the global difficulties central bank's are having in keeping control of the narrative when it comes to fighting inflation and trying to convince everyone that it is ok to have a certain amount of inflation. we will not let it get out of control and it is not going to get out of control. >> a little bit of the narrative around ever grand, we had the selloff in china's junk bond space, but now with this new payment, a little bit of calm
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returning to the markets. >> it's going to be a pretty nervous sort of calm. it is one payment that got eked out within the grace period. there is nothing to indicate the rest of the holders of billions of bonds that are out there for ever grand -- four evergrande can sleep easily. it's going to need more than this drip by drip process. you could almost argue this is worse than if they just came out and said that's it, we can do it. we need to default or restructure. then you would have a resolution . right now instead you have a situation where the market is still going to be waiting probably for months to find out just how badly the resolution -- or how well the resolution of these difficulties is going to play out.
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>> the white house has issued a revamped outline of $2 trillion worth of ideas to pay for president biden's social spending agenda, including a surtax targeting large corporations and millionaires. >> these plans are fiscally responsible. they are fully paid for. they do not add a single penny to the deficit. they do not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year. >> emily, what are the biggest components of this rebound package? >> some of the things we know are in the package and this should come with the disclaimer this is that has changed so much in recent weeks, but that there would be a surtax on high earners, those who make more than $10 million and potentially another surtax on those who make more than $25 million.
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the idea as you heard the president lay out is that this is not going to impact the middle class, this is not going to impact most americans. this is a sentiment the wealthiest in america should be contributing a certain level of taxes that some democrats feel they are not currently doing so. this is also very critical because democrats have had to make it clear time and time and time again that the spending package they are passing from the president, the one that includes things like childcare, health care, universal prekindergarten, that the does need to be paid for in full. that makes how they raise the money from taxes really important, that they can say hey, for every penny we are spending, we are also raising that same amount for the government. >> it seems broadly more palatable within his own party. is it likely to be able to move forward or easily? or are there still critics who
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want things that have been removed to be put back? >> you have heard lawmakers express disappointment and frustration over the fact things like provisions that would lower drug prices or things for paid family leave are not at this point included in the package. but how the white house has been pitching this and how some democratic lawmakers are accepting it is that this is still a big bill. there are still many priorities in this bill that democrats are very supportive, and even if they cannot get everything they want, the bill is $1.75 trillion of proposals they are very much in support of. you are even hearing the most progressive members in congress say, you know what? we are still going to fight for this, but we are supportive of the framework as it is. >> let's get you to vonnie quinn who has the first word
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headlines. >> thank you. the u.n. central bank keeping bond buying at a slower pace. investors maintaining bets for interest rate hikes as soon as next year. christine lagarde told a virtual news conference it is not for her to say if markets are ahead of themselves. >> our analysis certainly does not support that the conditions of our forward guidance are satisfied at the time of lift off as expected by markets, nor anytime soon thereafter. >> g20 leaders are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants. this is according to draft statement for the cup 26 -- cop
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26 summit. china says it is sticking to existing climate change targets to zero out emissions, reducing the chances for more ambitiou s global action at the cop 20 summit. it adds to a you that cop 26 -- a view that cop 26 will not add to efforts to reduce global temperature rises. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> china says it is sticking to existing climate change targets. we will get a preview of the upcoming cup 26 -- cop 26 summit. next, it was a big day for
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>> we are tracking the fallout of the global supply chain crunch. everything from computer chips to toys to coffee takes a hit. amazon is warning investors that the busy holiday quarter could be unprofitable as it shells out money to hire sufficient workers while trying to navigate a labor shortage and a computer shipping crunch. supply chain related questions dominated apple's earnings call earlier. tim cook defended the company's strategy, which he said will
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cost the iphone maker $6 billion in revenue and could worsen in the fourth quarter. caterpillar has said its sales in the third quarter would have been higher if not for the supply chain challenges. the industrial equipment maker says demand is looking strong in the next year, but the supply crunch will make it more difficult to meet customers' needs. let's take a look at the after hours trade, particularly apple and amazon. these stocks are down as much as 5% earlier. they have pared losses, but the late selloff on the back of disappointing earnings reports could wipe out well over 100 billion in combined market valuation from the companies when markets open in the u.s. friday. bloomberg terminal users can read more. let's discuss big tech's big day
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with ivan feinsmith. -- feinseth. bloomberg watch that could compete with the apple watch. give us your biggest take away from this big day. >> the most important thing is this is all because demand is so strong globally for everything. the key is you could not manufacture demand, but you could manufacture more supply. supply will pick up. maybe there will be shortages of certain items, especially popular holiday toys and gifts, but it will relieve itself as factories continue to come back on man -- come back online from being shut down and production ramps up. this is a high quality problem. it is better than if we were in a massive recession and there
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was no demand for anything. i think this is overall positive, and the fact companies like apple and amazon and others are investing in improving their supply chain, hiring people, trying to maintain the ability to fulfill customer demand will only by goodwill with customers and increase their growth. i continue to look at any weakness in these stocks at apple, google, amazon, google even, facebook, microsoft, as a buying opportunity. the underlying trends are just so powerful. >> those are the long-term trends. in the meantime, did we get a sense of how long these concerns will last and how badly they will be hit in the short term? >> they did not give any timeframe. i think by spring of next year, we will have -- we will be well
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past the effects of the supply chain of the pandemic, so i think -- you still have strong oil demand area the oil industry cannot meet the demand for new cars because of the chip constraint. this is a global problem, but again, it will have a solution by eventually manufacturing, and it is a better problem to have than a lack of demand. the fact demand is so strong, and i think the strong demand and the strong economy will continue for several years. >> we still see that demand waning. particularly when you look at reactions to amazon overnight. is there the risk the post-pandemic boom is a once-in-a-lifetime really quite bizarre supply-side and demand-side scenario that cannot really be sustained? >> not really. we go in cycles.
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the iphone 13 has seen more demand than the iphone 12. by the way, the biggest seller is the most expensive iphone 13 pro, same thing with the iphone 12 pro. we are in this massive 5g upgrade cycle. we are heading into shift from internal combustion engine cars to electric vehicles. this time next year, there will be 30 electric vehicles on the market. it's going to drive people to show rooms to check them out. the high price of gas and oil is more of an incentive to buy electric cars, to fulfill that demand. we have so many seismic shifts in what is going on and the way consumers spend money, what they value, how they value their time, and what they want. i think it is a very long runway of opportunity for a lot of companies.
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>> with meta, we just saw the watch intended to be competitive to the apple watch. what else is to be expected in that pipeline? how does the hardware and everything else of meta fit with the existing tech universe we have? >> there has been a huge growth in smart wearables. look at garman. -- garmin. there high-end watch included pulse ox in 2018 where the apple watch for the first time did not included until last year. heart rate, temperature, body cycles, oxygen, exercise, they all connect to these apps. if you are exercising on your own, you can connect to people who are exercising in other places. you are going to have the ability to track and monitor for
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health care, for fitness, exercises -- exercising, communication, and again, these create new opportunities. i think you are going to see an explosion in demand for smart wearables. there's going to be consumer choices across the spectrum as far as functionality and price. every level of product to meet consumer demand. >> more breaking news when it comes to evergrande, we are reporting -- this is the $100 million luxury property on the hong kong peak area, pledged to help pay that $250 million bond. we heard earlier china evergrande had placed that as
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collateral for this $300 million lein. this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards.
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>> breaking news out of japan. we are getting the rate coming in at 2.8%, in line with estimates for the month of september. also at the same level as the previous month. we had expected conditions to stay steady. we have seen negative impact given the extension of the state of emergency, but at the same time, we have seen rapid drop in new virus cases that may have helped those companies to keep people in their jobs. the job to applicant ratio
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higher than expected. 116 jobs available for 100 applicants, higher than the estimate of 1.14, also the number the previous month. it is coming in as 1.16. this as we continue to watch what is happening with covid cases in japan. we are going to see if there has been an impact of china's slowdown in the months to come. the jobless rate steady, the job to applicant ratio a little bit higher. >> the boj governor kuroda yesterday said there was scant risk of the runaway inflation hitting japan. to his point, tokyo year on year for october missing expectations, coming in at just zero point 1%. markets were expecting 0.4%. stripping out fresh food year on year, 0.1% also missing expectations and stripping out the volatile energy as well.
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we are seeing a deflationary number or contraction of 0.4%, worsening from the previous rating. expectations of an unchanged number. we had heard just this week from governor kuroda as to the reason why we are seeing weakness still in consumer prices in japan when we are seeing accelerating prices and price pressures in light of the u.s. and europe. >> one of the reasons consumer prices are weaker than those in the u.s. and europe is that the pace of recovery in demand has been weaker in japan. daphne's companies tend not to raise end product prices even when demand recovers. i believe japanese prices will gradually move toward a rising trend as the gap between supply and demand narrows. >> prime minister fumio cushy to
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-- he/she to -- kishida was regarded as the safe choice, but raises questions going into a general election. juliette saly explains what is at stake. >> japanese prime minister fumio cushy to has only been -- kishida has only been in the position for a month but he has the lowest approval rating for a prime minister since 2008. a major loss of parliamentary seats could weaken the party and send him through the revolving door of japanese leaders. none of japan's many opposition parties have more than single figure support, but several have formed alliances in a bid to win seats. kishida set a modest target for this election to maintain the ruling coalition's majority.
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missing out on a super majority would prevent him from taking bold action such as constitutional change. with the pandemic raising widening income inequality and an ambitious net zero emissions goal, his success will depend on whether the party's bet is a winning ticket. >> opinion polls indicate the ruling ldp will lose seats but maintain a majority. what is this going to come down to for the voters? >> it is a lot of converging factors. as we just laid out. this is not a slamdunk for the ldp. all lower house seats will be up for the vote on sunday, which is halloween by the way. the witching hour could strike the ldp. they have not gone to a general
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election without shinzo abe on the ticket in about a decade. as we just heard, fumio kishida is not the most charismatic character. he does not have broad public support, as we saw in the ldp internal election that raised him to the prime minister ship. most of the public liked taro k ono. he has had weeks to introduce himself to the wider general public and that is not a very long time when we are seeing the opposition parties. they have been is disarray for many years, but the opposition is kind of coalescing around this theme of income inequality, at a time when the japanese economy is extremely covid-weary. fumio kishida, this is not a slamdunk for him. he's hoping he's going to get an
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outright majority, a single party majority. but he is likely to have to rely on a partner to get that simple majority and then maintain the seats to have -- to not weaken his position going forward. >> we have heard prime minister keisha mentioned vaguely -- prime minister fumio kishida mentioned the new capitalism drive. what happens to abenomics? >> the opposition has been hammering on abenomics as well. what fruit has it borne? we have not seen trickle-down impacts. they think there needs to be a re-think. fumio kishida thinks there needs to be a re-think as well. he is maintaining the inflation target and the tenants of abenomics, but he has called it new capitalism that better
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distributes wealth. he is playing into the investor -- or the voters concerns about income discrepancies on top of economic growth. he wants to give tax breaks to companies that raise wages and give breaks to companies that boost pay for kindergarten teachers and nurses. the big challenge for he/she do is -- for fumio kishida is that. >> we will get more analysis on the outcome of japan's election monday. we will he speak -- we will speak with former economics officials as well as amp chain japan's -- amcham japan's chair.
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>> president biden has told democrats the presidency and a little fortune depends on the economic agenda. the $1.75 trillion framework has won widespread praise from democrats including progressives who wanted higher spending. they continue to hold up the other part of biden's agenda, and infrastructure bill -- an infrastructure bill. >> long-term compromise is the only way to get things done in a democracy. important things done for the country. i know it is hard. i know how deeply people feel about the things they fight for. but this framework includes historic investments in our nation and our people. >> india has supplied recently acquired u.s.-made weapons along the border with china where the countries remain deadlocked over disputed territories and the himalayas. it includes american-made helicopters, artillery, and rifles as well as domestically made supersonic cruise missiles and surveillance systems. india and the u.s. have been
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strengthening the. beijing will aim at limiting hidden government debt. sources tell us the state council approved the capital joining the trial. authorities elevated balance sheet borrowing to a national security issue earlier this year indicating greater determination to curb regulators on lending. citigroup will require all employees be vaccinated. the wall street giant has asked staff to submit proof of vaccination by december 8 and says those who comply will receive $200 as a thank you. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> let's take a look at how we
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are trading so far in the early part of the friday session. overnight in the tech sector, that selloff between amazon as well as apple and the supply chain concerns. we will be watching suppliers. this is what we are seeing when it comes to sydney, a up by 0.1%. new zealand trading higher by 0.4%. singapore nikkei futures are trading lower as we get toward a key political weekend and continue to digest the lack of re-inflation with tokyo cpi numbers as well as labor markets numbers as well. s&p futures looking lackluster. a great deal of focus is on the bond market. a lot of analysts are watching out for potentially rba intervention when they refrain from taking action in operations yesterday.
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>> we continue to see moves globally and we are also seeing a downside when it comes to the u.s. dollar, lifting base metals. we are seeing aluminum rebounding from the two month low yesterday. we had seen news that china was stepping up measures to ease that power crunch, and that hurt the price of the metal. iron ore -- restrictions continue to hurt demand. coal futures also sinking. the government aiming to regulate the price of thermal coal, although corn continues to round. we see optimism in biofuel as well as soggy weather keeping the commodity supported right now. plenty more to come on "daybreak asia."
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taken a private stake there is private investment company, joining us from sydney. such a pleasure having you on with us. in a day and age where we see just about every listed company saying they prioritize esg, prioritize representation and equality, how do you separate the greenwashing or the equality version of greenwashing to find the companies that are making a difference and are returning what you want to see? >> i think the research approach, we do our own analysis, we have our own engagements with companies to really ensure there is reporting in terms of their sustainability and the impact report is actually strong. we see a lot of that in targets. we think that is critical. general quality is one of our
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themes, we look to drive forward , and that is not just delivering social impact. it is also about improving returns, increasing academic empirical evidence that having greater diversity at the management board level improves returns. we actually invest in companies who are driving leadership in terms of gender equality and we look at things such as percentage of women in the workforce, but we also think about representation of women in key management positions to really indicate whether they really are having gender leadership. >> what is the most impactful way an investor can make a difference on the issues that matter to them? >> it is about understanding
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what the funds you are investing in, their policies and their way of investing is. i think investors are becoming more sophisticated. it used to be about investing in tobacco, fossil fuels, etc., but now it is about how are you allocating your capital in terms of driving contributions to make a policy impact? investors want to see the funds they invest in, they want to understand if it is really about policy, what are you doing in terms of your agenda practices -- finances themselves. we see only 5% of women in investment managers. really it is -- investors need
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to have a look at the fund managers. >> we know that companies do not disclose gender pay gaps. how do you tackle that? >> it is interesting. you look at the u.k., they have disclosures. that led to an improvement in the gap. in australia the gender pay gap is 14%. obviously what gets measured gets done. if you do not disclose the gap, it is difficult to lead to gender pay equality. i think that is critical as we try to encourage more women in the workforce.
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by the end of the career ladder, only 6% become ceos. there is outperformance potential. >> you are actually investing for clean energy, but you are doing so by investing in min ers. tell us the logic. >> we invest in wind and hydro in new zealand, but we look at companies that are driving the transition to cars. we need critical materials, the key ingredients in terms of being able to drive forward renewable energy, battery storage. lithium, cobalt, copper, really important in terms of actually getting to a clean energy future. we look at the current supply,
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the global growth that is required to meet a clean energy future, estimates adjust we need it .5 times more global supply of lithium than we have. copper we need almost five times more. there are significant structural tailwinds that need to drive this transition. >> there has been criticism over the government plan going into cop 26 for climate change policy. do you think regardless of what agreements are reached in glasgow there is a renewed impetus within the private sector to be doing more with taking a stance of putting personal investments into a fund like meli or with the leadership you are starting to see in the investment community? >> what is interesting for us is we track companies that have zero targets.
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it is 23% of companies. we are seeing that shift in terms of leadership at the company level. we need a carbon budget to get to that target. australia's asx 300 represents over a third of -- a significant role. >> thank you so much for your time today. breaking news on the bloomberg right now. we are getting japan's industrial production numbers. these are preliminary numbers for the month of september. a contraction of 5.4% month on month, much larger than was expected. the expectation was a contraction of 2.7%.
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this will be the third consecutive month of contractions when it comes to the industrial production numbers. you're on your we are in contraction territory. the estimate was for a slight gain. that is perhaps given we have seen the extent of virus containment measures. not to mention the shortages of chips and other devices affecting production. south korea as well will miss expectations. perhaps a broader trend we are starting to see across asia again. industrial production in japan, a month on month contraction much bigger than expected of 5.4%. but let's go back a little bit to that climate crisis, and of course the preview to cop 26. that is making headlines right now, just days away for that. really interesting, finally we are getting the updated pledge from china. they had missed their deadline from july, and we are finally
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getting the updated pledge, and they are sticking to their existing clement change targets to zero out -- climate change targets to zero out emissions. perhaps we will not see the ambitious plans many hoped for the cop 26 talks that are coming out -- coming up. >> you have to wonder about the more conservative approach from beijing. we know xi jinping is not leaving the country. we know he is in the grips of what is an energy crisis domestically. maybe a bit of a re-think as to how quickly china can reach these ambitious goals, but it does also on the whole, be it you are talking about the u.s., china, or australia, there is a rethinking of managing expectations going into cop 26 this weekend, of how much is going to be pledged in addition to what we already had from paris much more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. nomura is setting up a risk management office following the collapse of archegos capital. the new division they say will strengthen international cooperation among departments and keep tabs on how the brokerages managing risks globally. numerous suffered losses of
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almost $3 billion from the rk goes fiasco -- archegos fiasco. the lender reported net income of $10 billion as is nonperforming loan ratio fell from the start of the year. chinese banks are recovering after being directed to aid struggling businesses earning during the pandemic. china's largest cross-border brokers plummeted in u.s. trade after a senior pboc official questioned the legitimacy of online brokers amid beijing's continuing crackdown on private enterprise. online brokers have no licenses to operate in china. the brokers were not named. facebook has changed its name to meta as it pivots toward virtual reality. mark zuckerberg says the company wants to be meta-verse first not facebook first calling the virtual environment the next frontier. the rebrand also diverts
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attention away from the social network which has been tarnished by whistleblower allegations. it will begin trading under a new ticker from december 1. >> we are tracking japanese stocks after we had caterpillar earnings. the equipment maker while seeing strong third-quarter response, also saw supply chain snags. we did see machinery stocks climbing in the u.s. session thursday on the back of that print. also watching apple suppliers in asia. tim cook saying supply chains are expected to worsen this quarter. coming up in the next hour of "daybreak asia, the outlook for chinese banks. we hear from the head of china research, plus mizuho bank seeing a bond selloff coming to
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china with no new climate targets ahead of cop 26. japan and south korea coming online. take a look at what is happening with the markets, the nikkei unchanged. real estate weighing on the index, but also energy and health care gaining ground. we have wti above $82 a barrel. the topics unchanged, but we have the japanese yen holding at the 100 13 level. a narrow range trading this week when it comes to the japanese yen. we have seen jgb's rallying along with overseas debt markets. overnight we had the boj holding steady on policy, but lowering growth and inflation forecast. we did get japan's september industrial output really underperforming estimates. a contraction of 5% month on month. similar story in south korea. industrial output fell 1.8% year on year, missing expectations.
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the kospi is gaining 0.5% after two sessions of losses already. the korean won gaining ground against the u.s. dollar. a bit of a difficult week for the won. it will be difficult to rise as stagflation fears are there. we did see bond yields surging. we continue to watch the gyrations in the bond market. >> that is in particular when it comes to australian bonds. we are seeing a bit of a surge when it comes to aussie bonds. today perhaps will be the day we see an unscheduled event. the curve has steepened. the 10 year yield is following overnight treasuries moved higher. laggards including the likes of financials despite a robust to
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be on the back of deal making and expectations of another capital raise. we are seeing leaders in health care across the border markets trading lower. kiwi stocks trading higher by about 0.25%. we did hear from the rbnz governor. the kiwi dollar is trading just sigh of -- just shy of 72 u.s. cents. one of the world's most dovish central banks has been backed into a corner. a bond rout threatening to shred the credibility of policymakers. let's bring in ahead of economics and strategy. you are seeing when it comes to the behavior is and bond prices
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the theory people believe that perhaps you will see that unscheduled operations from the rba today to rain and -- two rein in targets. where does this leave the central banks? are these expectations getting ahead of themselves. >> the market expectations are pretty impressive. our better judgment is even if markets are right that the rba will move forward with rate adjustments to late 2022, markets are too aggressive right now. ahead of the rba meeting, it makes sense they adjust the position, but our senses that this testing of the rba may continue. that is going to deepen the dilemma that the rba is in right now between defending bond credibility -- or rather yield curve control credibility.
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>> which are the next central banks to have to face this dilemma? >> by and large, a lot of the central banks are, as you pointed out, the rest are aligning themselves. they may need to adjust policies. the boe is leading in the west. down under, the rbnz. there are a lot of central banks signaling they are more fluid. the rba could also do that. we are not ruling that out into next year after we see more inflation trends alongside the growth trajectory. however, at this point, the dilemma for the rba, they want to say they are fluid. markets may read that as the rba backing down. they may get more aggressive, which will not be good for the policy accommodations. >> we have seen global short
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rates really make dramatic moves. we have seen the treasury yield curve parts also invert for the first time in a year or so. what would a new regime -- what implications would that have for the market? >> in all honesty we are trying to figure it out. our sense is that the short rates are reacting in a pretty typical taper to rate hike transition. even before we got the taper, the short end rate is really catching up very quickly. this is not the kind of financing applications for global equity markets, but many global central banks are just dipping their feet into taper.
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liquidity could remain very supportive. we get very much more discriminatory moves and much more selective moves the next few months. >> before we let you go, of course we had earnings coming from big tech. we have seen really the pressure in after hours session. let me raise the question of the day for you. do apple and amazon mark the end of the tech heyday? they were the tech darlings during the pandemic, weren't they? >> i would not be -- i really don't want to be calling this. tech has a long way to go, but the short answer is in the interim period, there are adjustments that need to take place. one is around the regulation and the containment of the reach of tech and data control that will have a large implication and the other is the harder side of tech rather than the social platforms, which will -- we will
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see is a structural issue, the u.s. and china face-off. beyond that regulatory account, we will see tech remaining very prominent. >> vishnu varathan, always great having you on and sharing your insights. mizuho bank head of economics and strategy there. take a look at stocks trading in japan. we are seeing sony and panasonic moving. sony really gaining ground as much as 4.5% at one point. they boosted their full year operating profit view to a record ¥1.04 trillion. they raised their full year operating income forecast. they blew past some of their issues with ps5 sales and they actually raise the profit outlook, so we are seeing that reflected in the stock today. panasonic down more than 4%. this as they actually disappointed when it came to their second quarter operating
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profits missing estimates. although it is worth noting they did boost their operating income forecast for the full year. let's now get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. >> european central bank has renewed its pledge to keep emergency bond buying at a moderately slower pace even as inflation surges. president christine lagarde did drive home a commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy with investors maintaining bets for interest rate hikes as soon as next year. lagarde told a virtual conference that it is not for her to say if markets are ahead of themselves. >> our analysis certainly does not support that the conditions of our forward guidance are satisfied at the time of lift off as expect it by markets, nor anytime soon thereafter. >> president biden has told house democrats his presidency and a political fortunes depend on the passage of his economic
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agenda. $1.75 trillion framework released thursday has won widespread praise from democrats including progressives who have wanted higher spending. they continue to hold up other parts of biden's agenda. >> i have long said compromising consensus are the only way to get things done in the democracy. important things done in the country. i know it is hard. i know how deeply people feel about the things they fight for, but this framework includes historic investments in our nation and our people. >> india has deployed u.s.-made weapons along the border with china where the countries remained deadlocked over disputed territory in the himalayas. the buildup includes american-made helicopters, ultralight artillery, and rifles , as well as domestically made supersonic cruise missiles and surveillance systems. india and the u.s. have been strengthening defense ties.
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global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> still ahead, facebook morphs into meta. a shift to vr and away from the social network mired in -- content. plus, jeffries says the worst has actually passed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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they are really cutting it close, but they are not defaulting at this point. >> absolutely. coupon paid for this bond. we are also hearing quaid is pledging his house to pay for the $260 million bond that is said to be guaranteed by evergrande. ultimately this is about staving off a near term official default. that would potentially make it much more complicated as it tries to sell access. so in a profit default scenario, holders could petition for bankruptcy and have more control over the kind of procedure of asset sales. theoretically evergrande can continue to stave off the imminent official default, while it may be working on a potential restructuring plan. >> what is going on with the rest of china's property firms and fears of contagion? >> we have really seen the
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selloff deepening again this week. there is more diversions between weaker and stronger players. the first dollar bond default back in 2015 came from a lot of offshore debt. half the amount of dollar bonds as evergrande. around the $.50 on the dollar rate, the lowest we have seen ever since their return. it would be quite an extraordinary fall from grace. there is a technical factor as well because it has so much debt that the whole of its yield cart is very vulnerable when investors start to develop concerns. elsewhere we have seen agile, sooner, also under pressure. >> let's turn to outperforming sovereign debt. analysts see the inclusion
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generating $130 billion over three years. that bolsters the case for the world's best performing government debt. our fx and rate reporter has more. clearly this inclusion matters when it comes to sentiment. >> so for fixed income investors, this is a great opportunity to get more exposure to china. at this point china is one of the best-performing bonds this year compared to most of its major peers at a time when all of the global yields are under pressure, china has acted as a haven asset. it did not have to stimulate as much during the pandemic. now it is -- with signs of a growing economy, there is no sign it is going to tighten. >> how much of a boost will this be? >> $130 billion across three years.the monthly averages abou3 billion area -- the monthly average is about $3 billion. most analysts are saying the
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three year kind of inclusion period will actually make it a more stable asset to incorporate into your portfolio. >> we do have breaking news out of the rba. it is what the rba has refrained from doing for another day. the reserve bank of australia does not announce purchases to defendants bond yield target. the three year yield erasing the drop as the rba avoided buying up debt. we had seen on the three year end, bond futures and bond trading shooting higher in the early trading session. really ahead of that window where the rba was expected to come into the cash market and buy up debt as a form of intervention to rein that back in. they did do that a week ago, so expectations have been running high given we have had the absence from the april 2024 maturity so far this week. we saw the three year contract
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dropping 76 basis points this month. even if the rba stepped in today, it was unlikely to raise that last percent. the market on the short end is getting back expectations after shooting earlier ahead of that rba window. we will watch that as the so-called bond revolt continues. traders with higher expectations as to a more hawkish action from the rba. plenty more to come on "daybreak asia." ♪
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busy holiday quarter could be unprofitable as it shells out money to hire sufficient workers while trying to navigate a global shipping crunch. meanwhile supply chain related questions dominated apple's earnings call. tim cook at defending the company's's strategy -- the company's strategy. and the fight for cleaner energy sources is being threatened by the bottlenecks. disruptions are driving lender -- labor and material costs for renewables that might reverse a decade-long trend that made wind and solar mainstream. the impact of supply constraints on apple brings the focus to suppliers in asia. we are watching samsung, sk hynix, south korea, and japan display among other firms that stance to take a hit. bloomberg terminal users can read more about the story in our newsletter supply line.
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>> those bottlenecks in the global supply chain are also threatening to drive up costs for renewable power. that will reverse a decade trend that put wind and solar into the mainstream. tell us how it could be a setback for the energy transition. >> like other sectors, the supply chain disruption has had sporadic impacts on specific projects causing delays, delivery of goods. but the most important impact has been on input costs. energy prices, particularly electricity prices, have gone up. prices for solar modules have shot up. last year's low was around $6.3.
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a significant jump. the crisis we have now is around a similar level to what we had in 2011. there has been this input rise in costs, but we are still confident that over the long run, prices will decline. we expect renewables, they will continue the trend we are seeing over the last decade. >> any indication this had a role in china's decision not to change its reduction targets? >> there is that perception, but in reality i think that is not the case. in the case of china, historically they have always been very consistent in setting targets they can exceed. it is very likely that when cop 26 -- when cop 31 comes around, by that point, china will have achieved its 2030 target, so i don't think the crunch has had
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any impact. certainly it creates that perception. >> what is the likelihood that cop 26, when it comes to coal -- we are hearing a less ambitious framework coming out of china now, certainly the lack of ambition has been criticized for australia's climate policy going into glasgow. a lot of us question what president biden will be able to achieve. >> it depends on definition. it is likely that we are going to see an agreement around phasing out finances of new coal projects. there are caveats in terms of funding existing projects that are already under development. already the g20 suggests they will follow on. in terms of core power generation, countries by 2030, if not by 2040 -- that is
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unlikely to be an agreement that is reached at glasgow. >> always great having you on. a quick check now of the latest business flash headlines, indigo , one of india's biggest budget airlines, is closer to swinging back to profit. the low-cost carrier posted a narrower than expected quarterly loss of 192 million dollars, revenue more than doubled for the period, but total costs climbed 72% with rising fuel prices being seen as a headwind. the ceo says he sees a glimmer of profitability as india emerges out of the covid crisis. nomura is setting up a risk management office following the collapse of archegos capital. a spokesman says the new division will strengthen international cooperation among departments and keep tabs on how the brokerage is managing risks globally. nomura suffered losses of almost
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$3 billion from the fiasco. facebook has changed its name to meta as it pivots toward virtual reality. mark zuckerberg says the company wants to be metaverse first and not facebook first, calling the virtual environment the next frontier. the rebrand diverts attention from the social network which has been tarnished by content and whistleblower allegations. it will begin trading under a new ticker from december 1. the facebook rebrand meta previews a virtual reality headset titled project cambria it plans to release next year. it says the devices use sensors and better displays that will allow consumers to create avatars. coca-cola maybe close to buying a controlling stake in the sports drink maker body armor in a deal that values the company at about $8 billion.
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a bloomberg source says the deal could be finalized in the coming weeks. the move would help coca-cola compete with pepsi's market-leading gatorade which currently controls about 68% of the sports drink market. >> let's take a look at how we are trading when it comes to asian markets. australian bond markets really try to reprice themselves with a lack of rba intervention again for another day. we saw that big surge in yields. this is where we are at when it comes to trading across the equity session. the nikkei 225 is down 0.7 percent. tokyo cpi numbers really reiterating the point that governor kuroda made yesterday after the bank of japan decision to hold policy study, that inflation does not seem to be coming to japan even if it is elsewhere in the world. the kospi is flat the moment. sidney stocks a 10th of 1%. leadership in that market out of
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the likes of health care, but broadly trading lower. kiwi stocks are up. week dive into -- coming up, we dive into china's bank earnings, especially with evergrande moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving.
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number to come through, but we are expecting a contraction of 5%. >> carlyle group capitalizing on the market to bring in $14 billion in the third quarter, beating estimates. the ceo earlier spoke with bloomberg to discuss earnings. >> valuations are high. markets are robust. we have taken advantage of that, but realization and distributions are a result of the hard work over the years making great investments. a big credit to our investment teams that have found great companies to partner with. it is about the value-added we are bringing to these companies in terms of digital capabilities , driving real operational changes in improving supply
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chain, esg and making these companies better. when you have that mindset, that leads to the activity we are seeing, and favorable markets help, but i am comfortable that we have worker-approved carrier balances for years to come. >> are you seeing better market opportunities with rising rates locally -- and globally -- globally? >> i believe that after a time, you will be in the low yield environment for longer than people think, but the trend is there is tremendous change happening around the world, especially in digital. i think covid has taught all of us that you have to adapt, evolve, and embrace digital to create opportunities, and that
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opportunity that is expanded because of changes around the world and fueling the investment pace at carlyle group. it has doubled in the past year. it is not only us, but growth investing and using our platform to pave it different regions, strategies because of the changes in the environment. >> few people realize that you actually at your portfolio companies employ about one million people across the world, correct? what does this mean in terms of wages? starbucks raised their minimum wage to $17 per hour. do you see that same acceleration at your portfolio companies? >> yes, we have 300 portfolio companies around the world. wages is one aspect of the pricing pressures and inflation we are seeing that is more
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persistent than people thought, but not just wages, energy prices, shipping costs, all because supply chains have been discombobulated and it is trying to react to an increase in demand. no doubt this is more persistent than all of us thought, but we are in the long-term business, and we look at things over a long time, and with that perspective, some of the price pressures we are seeing are more temporary than not. i do see these types of issues as creating more opportunity for investments across our broader platform if you have a long-term orientation. >> that was our exclusive interview with the ceo of carlyle group group. let's get to the first word headlines. >> g20 leaders are preparing to stop funding coal-fired power plants, according to a statement.
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they are still wrangling over climate objectives crucial to keeping temperatures in check. the draft document refers to the existential challenges of climate change, but it's countries room. all u.s. employees will be in vaccinated -- vaccinated against covid-19, federal contractors, submitting vaccination proved by december 8, and those who comply will receive $200 as a thank you. a memo sets january 14 as the final cut off. beijing city will join a trial program aimed at eliminating hidden government debt. sources join other provinces. authorities elevated off-balance-sheet borrowing to a security issue this year, indicating determination to curb
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unregulated lending. sources say some holders of a china ever grande bond have received no reduced payment, the second time this month the troubled developer has stopped a default. seller notes remain at the stress levels, as investors brace for eventual restructuring. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> it has been a big week for china, major banks reporting today. our next guest says the sector is on track for rebound and prefers hong kong banks to mainland counterparts. the head of china research at jefferies joins us now. it is great to have you with us. give us your rationale and why you prefer hong kong banks instead of mainland banks, and
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what that is telling you about asset quality, loan and growth as well. >> thank you. regarding china banks, we see they are on track to rebound in the growth of social financing. next year, we expect lower net interest margins, together with rising asset quality issue. comparing to hong kong banks, hong kong banks will benefit from the tapering globally. the margin trends for the hong kong banks are probably better than china banks next year. that is the main reason we prefer hong kong banks to china banks. >> we have seen chinese banks being targeted to take on the burden when it came to helping out struggling businesses during the pandemic, but now we have another issue in the chinese
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markets, the property sector, and authorities trying to curb lending on that space. is that having an impact? >> regarding the property sector with the impact to net margin is not significant. you can see it only accounts to 6% to 7% of the loans, while mortgage accounted to 25% of total growth loan book for major banks, we did not see much decline. however, regarding the property sector, we see rising ratio. this year in the third quarter, we see banks reported a lower ratio all sectors have seen lower ratios. despite increasing profits, net
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year, we expect the ratio will increase across the sector, due to the slow down in growth, and curbing lending to the property sector. >> is it unlikely we will see big, major shift in terms of policy towards the property sector and curbs from the government, given they are trying to clamp down on the sector? >> what we see is marginal loosening or fine-tuning in the property curbing policy. banks have issued more in september, which helped them for the mortgage in october and the fourth quarter. we don't see a significant listening for the property sector overall. in the past, china banks have taken effort to curb the sector
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in order to lower the reliance on the property sector for china's economy. regarding next year, we expect that china continues its current policy for the property sector, while banks are encouraged to issue property developer loans and the mortgage at a similar pace as this year. >> tell us about the reasoning why you prefer hong kong banks that are mainland lenders. >> hong kong banks, we like it due to the net interest margin trend. the loan yields declined your and your and third quarter, and we expect they will see something next year. china banks are usually pushing to lower financing costs for the economy to support economic growth. therefore, the net interest margin will decline, given the
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low loan yield and costs. for hong kong banks, their loan yield may probably benefit from the tapering, and the net interest margin trend is likely to keep stable or increase. therefore, we see that we prefer hong kong banks to china banks. >> coming up, japan's opposition parties are coalescing to chip away at the ruling coalition's majority. we get a preview of the election this weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> japan's elections on october 31. we look at it. >> the prime minister has only been in the job a month, but heads into the election with the lowest approval rating since 2008 for an incoming premier. while the ruling ldp will unlikely lose its majority, a loss of parliamentary seats could weaken the leadership and send him through the revolving door of japanese leaders.
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nine of japan's opposition parties have more than single figure support, but several have formed alliances to win seats. he set a target to maintain the ruling coalition's majority. his government controls more than 300 of 465 seats, but missing out on a simple majority would prevent him from taking bold action, such as constitutional change. with the pandemic raging, widening income equality, and unassertive china on the doorstep and an ambition net zero emissions goal, his success will depend on whether it is a winning ticket. >> let's cross to tokyo for more on what to expect. what are the latest polls saying? >> we have two new polls today. they are from two newspapers. they are saying the same thing, the ruling party will struggle
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to hold onto the majority in parliament. it was still hold onto the majority with its junior coalition party, but involve a substantial loss of seats. we are seeing the cdp, the main opposition party is likely to gain seats, and we could see substantial gains for another party, regional party based on something, but if it gains seats, it could be the third-largest party in parliament. >> what does losing the outright majority mean for the prime minister? >> as i said, that would be a huge loss of seats for the ruling ldp that has been in power since 1955.
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he was not the top choice to be the leader of the odp among the rank-and-file members across the country, and has not had broad support as a whole. if this election shows he has not been able to galvanize the election, that could shorten his leadership. we have seen one leader disappear in the space of a year, and he could follow suit. it will make it more difficult for him to push through his own policies and parliament, to have less control over the committees and parliament in the legislative agenda. if we have a rapid turnover of leaders that the country has seen so many times in the past, that distracts from the problems japan faces, such as the huge debt, population and demographic issues, and tackling climate change. he is planning to head off to the meeting after the election.
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>> automation is always used in the factories. what we are seeing is the technology is pivoted to outside of factories, so used in retail, supermarkets, some in other markets. the markets are completely undiscovered, so this is exciting for us. >> the ceo, and you can catch more from the interview on monday. we now turn to meta, the company formerly known as facebook. let's hear from our west coast reporter. >> from this point, facebook
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will be known as meta, but the corporate structure will remain the same. each facebook property will retain their names and operate in the same way. when change is the ticker will change. it is taking its future on the meta-verse, where consumers interact through the oculus headset, an updated version was announced at the event thursday. mark zuckerberg said the meta-verse will be a boost to the global economy. take a listen. >> if we work at it, and the next decade, the meta-verse will host one billion people, and
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support jobs for creators and developers. >> this is a company on track to hit $120 billion of revenue in fiscal 2021, so at the end of the decade, it will account for a few $100 million gives a sense of how far facebook has to go. we did get different use cases for the platform where users will be able to experience it. it's not just limited to gaming, although we got new titles and partnerships on the gaming side, but they demonstrated applications to help with fitness and taking a class using your headset and see others in the room with you virtually. there were also used cases -- use cases for e-commerce, virtual transactions and virtual spaces. mark zuckerberg said this will be a boost to the environment, because if you conduct business in the meta-verse, you can take your flights and reduce your carbon footprint.
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as of the third quarter, the other top line that accounts for 2% to 3% of revenue, a long way to go, but they are doubling down on investment. capex will increase, and operating income will be down $10 billion because of the investment facebook has made in the business unit responsible for the meta-verse. going forward, that will be its own line item was a we will have a sense of how the business is growing and how long it will be before the meta-verse yields genuine revenue and contribute's to the bottom line. >> let's check the latest business flash headlines. apple fell on a revenue miss, as supply constraints took a bite out of sales. sales were bolstered, but fourth-quarter revenue totaled $83.4 billion, $1 billion less
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than estimated. apple results renewed supply crunch fears heading into the holiday season. amazon shares sank after hours, warning it might make no profit during the holiday on sales of $140 billion. it missed on earnings in the fourth quarter forecasts. investors come second customers, and the new ceo said he will continue the long-term strategy. a group is looking to raise $1 billion for new investment opportunities, the biggest ever capital raise, after first-half net income doubled to $1.5 billion, driven by dealmaking activity. the commodities in global markets also saw strong growth in sectors, amid a time of market volatility. china's largest cross-border brokers plummeted after an official questioned the legitimacy of online brokers,
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amid the crackdown five beijing. -- by beijing. the article said brokers have no licenses to operate in china. he did not name those brokerages. global foundries made a volatile debut on the nasdaq, ending down more than 1%, raising $2.6 billion, making it the third biggest u.s. listing this year. it plans to use the funds to expand capacity as it struggles to meet increased demand for chips. the ceo says he sees a difficult 2022 for customers. >> take a look at futures at the moment. u.s. futures under pressure, after the s&p 500 finished at a record high. we had a bullish close, but at the same time, after hours, disappointing earnings from apple, amazon. that pressured u.s. futures, which are down.
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futures unchanged on the taiex. china futures closing higher. this, as the offshore yuan hold steady at that level. we have seen a tight range of trading for the offshore yuan recently. it has been a top ranked currency in asia so far this year, really defying the risks that have come with the chinese economy starting to slow down. take a look at some of those stocks we are watching now. we will be watching the oil giants, after patrick china, sinopec and cnooc report earnings, all boosting gas output. shipping stocks on the radar. morgan stanley seeing some names gaining 45% by the end of 2022. also, apple suppliers could be
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falling with the warning on tight supplies. we have apple falling in late trading after reporting revenue that miss estimates. -- missed estimates. iphone sales falling short of projections as well. suspending trading for one stock in hong kong, and evergrande has dodged default by paying overdue interest. coming up, we will discuss the challenges for evergrade are impacting the sector. plus, bank of america has bears on the outlook for the yuan. that view and more is explained, head. that is it from "daybreak: asia." we are looking ahead to the start of trade. stay tuned for bloomberg markets, china open. this is bloomberg. ♪
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