one point trillion dollar economic agenda after negotiations to shrink the bill. the proposal includes paid family and medical leave, based on the need. it is an apparent attempt to get the support of west virginia democratic senator senator joe manchin to his concern about the price tag. china is expanding a nuclear weapon capability more rapidly than we believe. that is a warning from the pentagon in a report. at least 1000 nuclear warheads are likely, by 2030. this increases previous assessments that china seeks doing creases military footprint overseas. the world health organization is granted emergency authorization to a net -- vaccine made in india. it is the eighth covid-19 vaccine to receive the who screen light. the vaccine has been criticized from the onset.

it one approved real -- approval before clearing final critical stage test. if you'll hesitancy around the shot in the early stages of india's immunization. the green bay quarterback aaron rodgers has tested positive for covid-19. espn says that rogers will miss the team's next game against the kansas city chiefs on sunday. rogers is unvaccinated, meaning he will miss a minimum of 10 days, even if he tested negative for covid. that is according to the nfl network. global news, toy for hours a day, on air and on bloombergquint take powered by more than twice in hundred journalists and analysts and over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

>> it is one pmm new york, 1:00 a.m. and hong kong. i met miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here the top stories. less than one hour to go before the fomc rate decision. we will bring you full coverage ahead. and, preview the event with staples chief economist with her thoughts on fed tapering and when she expects the rates to it. we will also have an excuse of letter view -- interview with the ceo steeple. lot to go through there. lot of great shows to talk about. first off, a quick check on what is going on in the market. the s&p is down to 1/10 of 1%. 4644. down six points. not a lot of direction. traders will sit on their hands before fed decision because they're not exactly sure what is going to come out in the algorithm. the decision doesn't shine.

we have to look at it with human eyes. up just a little bit to 15664. the yield is across the curve. the bloomberg dollar index is unchanged at one 162. down $2.67 a barrel for 81. 23. there are seven caught my eye, and that is the shares of lift. it looks like ridesharing is back in the third quarter revenue. 73% higher than last year. as with the stock on pace for its best day since may. this also projects that it will turn a profit for the full year. this could be a sign of what is to come for uber, which reports after the bell tomorrow. drivers and writers are gradually shaking off fears of the pandemic. first off, let's focus on the fed today. international economic policy correspondent michael mckeon is watching. what are we focused on? >> let's take a look at it with

as you said that human eyes. the fed is announcing a taper. we know that. that is the first thing. the real question is how soon, how long, and how much is it going to be? the 50 million a month that has been talked about, that would take us to july. then we could see a possibility of rate increases. how do they sound? elvis, or hawkish? they will try to split the difference, but they will be looking for hawkish commentary given the fact that inflation commentary has proven not to be transitory. that is the third item. whether transitory. why is inflation so high, and it was supposed to be transitory? that is what people will be looking for today, the results of the news conference, following the statement, will tell us something about where the markets go from here. the expectation is that they have to raise rates.

this is july, and the odds of a rate move in july is just below 1%, one move right now. we are already seeing the move for the weeks right after the fed ends tapering. we will see if echoes higher if the fed disappoints today. >> thank you. michael mckee talking about the fed. we will continue to cover that throughout the day. special edition later on when the fed decides, with jon ferro and tom keene. will focus on discovery. those shares are higher after the company reported added 3 million streaming subscribers in the third quarter. the reliefs -- release comes as they plan to merger with water media which is expected to close by the middle of next year. joining us to discuss the results is the cfo of discovery. thank you for joining us. this merger is going to make your company massive. give you really john malone-sized presence.

is this enough to make you streaming winner? >> yes. as i said earlier, we have been dealt the best hand in the entire industry and we have to play. we are excited that we are in a position to make some progress on getting the merger closed. the regulatory process is going well, and it continues to go well. it is the most exciting news, from my perspective, that we're making progress on the financial framework. we have seen some preliminary drafts of the carbo financial, and we are expecting to be able to close that merger next year. close to five times levers that we expected when we first signed and we are now looking at four and a half times, so a great program, and we couldn't be more excited about the financial side of things, but needless to say, more portly, from a common perspective, we are bringing together two of the most iconic and france, and again, by far, the breast in the world.

>> evolved all discovered programs that have been popular, and now you are adding hbo. that is obviously one of the biggest in the industry. one of the breakouts. what are you going to be able to do financially, once you have this big behemoth together. before we mentioned those amazing things, we're talking about a hundred years of warner bros.. massive content library. our ability to bring these brand portly is together and combine the complementary strengths of both portfolios is enormous. we put together some guidance out there, north of $50 billion in revenue in 2023. we have modeled very significant increases in investments to make sure that we continue to build out the content ip asset. but we are also looking at very significant synergy potential,

given my target of $3 billion. we will be able to build a wonderful technology platform, a leading deed to see business, and we will invest in content. >> what will not look i? after this merger is finished how i access your content mark will there be a bundle of discovery, hbo, older brother -- warner bros. platform? >> we have that question a lot, and we are a little careful because we are still working through the regulatory process here, so as you would imagine, we are not able to do planning, but we have a clear view of different strategies of how to go to the market and they all have their pros and cons. we believe the depth and breadth of the content is the differentiator. we will then bring technology together, and there will be two

phases, initially monthly. something out of the gate as we close the deal. regardless of what the end state of the product vision is going to be, we will make this available, this wonderful content, to people around the world with a combination of global production, u.s. production, and we will continue to offer different price points with at free offerings for people who are willing to pay a little more to get the full and free experience, and an ad light version of the product that has been very successful for discovery. also for, from what i can see, for water media. >> what do you think about consumer habits has become out of this endemic? i thought i watched a lot of tv before 2020, but i have seen literally everything over the last year and a half. will people continue to consume as much a smirk >> we are seeing

people consume more. there is more audiovisual content being produced on the world than ever before. it is a fascinating vision from a consumer perspective. to connect a premium, high quality content across all genres, and across whatever platforms. that is been something that has always been strategically important for discovery. we own a lot of our content, and that is true of water media as well. to a large extent. we have full control of -- there is no licensing, no windowing, and we can make those decisions. the exciting vision for the consumer is that you want access to this content, wherever, wherever you want. >> is it costing you more more to use this content? we have seen inflation and a lot of other places, especially manufacturing, but also in the services industry, labor shortages radar those prices rising?

>> in general, this is an area with inflation. as you might imagine, all production companies are implement covid safety protocols and stuffs, so that has an impact. it is important to look at the mix and one great thing of such a product content portfolio is that there are other areas that are not as inflation or. when we ran into covid, we shot a lot of content from home, and delivered kits to our on-air talent, and they were shooting at home. obviously, very marginal costs, and what we learned is that our viewers really valued that authenticity. that has been a bit of an offsetting effect. we had great relationships with talent, with production companies, the combined warner bros. discovery has been owning the narrowing tv studio in the world, and one of the top

feature film studios. >> it gives you tremendous pricing power. do you expect to be able to really control that? compared to other industry names, hbo must. >> the way we look at it is the consumer. we are super proud that we will be able to offer this amazing content, and david has said this many times. we are not in this just for the purpose of storytelling. the entire team wants to tell great stories. there is no shipping packages, no phone, no cloud service. we are doing media and entertainment, and we are doing telling stories. that is the entire team on both water media and discovered. >> thank you. we really appreciate your time today. the cfo of discovery. don't miss the premier of she future officer at 9:00 tonight.

as we focus it on finance. this is bloomberg.

>> this is bloomberg. i am matt miller. we are less than an hour away from the fomc to them.

policymakers are taking into account the supply chain pain. i'll next have affected everything in the economy. most recent example is the win system which is one of the biggest makers of turbines. transport issues have led the employees to cut their profit outlook. we've also seen shares of genera. the central bank of america has downgraded the stock to neutral. analyst at the firm have cited supply chains. a fresh data point coming in's showing that trucking trips are originating around massive increases in idle time from the start of 2018 through 2021. idle time for vehicles has increased by 50%. that is not good for the environment. we will continue talking about the economy, the fed, and the tapering timeline the chief economy.

this is uber. -- this is bloomberg.

this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. the decision for the fomc rate is due out at the top of the hours with all eyes on the tapering plan. joining us now is the chief economist. thank you for your time.

what are you expecting. what can the fed really do. are we in a situation where there is not much jerome powell company can really affect? >> up until the september meeting, the petted been very clear that, while the recovery had made significant progress, thresholds of substantial for further progress had not been met. the policy was not yet warranted. that all changed in september when that chairman himself came out and said that both components of the fed's dual mandate, stable and full employment had met. that left the door wide open for eight november taper announcement. the following september employment report, the displaying rise of under 200,000, there was concern that the fed would begin to backpedal on that path forward towards externally measures. but we have to remember that the fed has been erring on the side of caution for quite some time.

one data point should not deter the momentum to begin the process of rolling back the extraordinary measures with first stage of that taper announcement. we do, very much, expect the taper, with the reduction of asset purchases this month. >> to what extent? what does it look like to you. it is a silly guessing game to play, before we get the actual details, but what you would be looking for? >> well if we look to the minutes that were released as a couple of weeks after that september rate announcement, and saw that it was discussed with $15 billion on a monthly basis. 15 billion in terms of treasury, 5 billion in terms of mem. that is out on nominal basis the head and less than anticipated, but it was a rapid clip on a monthly basis as opposed every the month or every other fomc meeting. there is really no reason to suggest that the fed would deter

from that path that they outlined in the minutes. we are expecting a $50 billion reduction in a monthly basis, and if it is initiated later this month, that would conclude the asset purchase program in 2022, opening the next question of when does the fed move to the second stage of policy removal or liftoff? >> so, the differentiation has been made fairly clear by jerome powell between reducing the asset purchases and raising the rates. nonetheless, the market has priced in more than one rate hike before the end of 22 82, and bloomberg intelligence is looking for two. what is your view on rate hikes? how soon, and how much? >> the committee is very divided. we have seen 50% of fed members talking about expectations for 2022, and 50% say 2023. i'm in the camp with the general sense of market advancers that

remain very skeptical. the fed would be able to maintain these low levels of rates for more than a year. given the backdrop of extremely elevated inflation. we have to really look at the information from the fed. on the one hand, yes. we want to keep inflation in check, keep expectations of a control. we also want to return some tools to the monetary toolbox. on the other hand, the fed has been very clear that we want to remain accommodative, well after the taper process has initiated. we've also recognize that the economy is still on uneven footing. they do not want to pull the rug out. that being said, they would be reeling to raise rates on consumer timetables. starting from zero levels, even as we saw in a series of rate increases, that was still talking about historically low and historically accommodative. >> yes. still very low rates, even if they raise it a few times. nonetheless, what good would it

do to raise rates if the problem , the cause of inflation is supply constraints? >> well, part of the rights of inflation is supply concerns. but the one component that the fed is more concerned about is rising wage pressures. that is largely stemmed from artificial policy measures. really, influencing the structural composition of the labor market. wage pressures, even after you start to see supply chain disruptions move, tend to be more sticky. we could see that component of inflation be more persistent than the fed participate -- anticipated. the fed was to get out ahead of that because of controlling inflation and expectations. they are saying to inch hires, but not enough that they slow down the recovery or undermines the pace of the recovery this point. >> thank you so much for joining us. a pleasure having on the program. linseed, chief economist at

steeple, helping to preview the fed decision for us. we will have full coverage of the fed decision coming up, special coverage of the fomc decision, and i saw jonathan ferro in the office earlier. i to he was hanging out in the green room with tom keene. they will be on to preview this discussion a tell you what we will learn from jerome powell. we have not really done much ahead of this decision. that is not unusual. the back-and-forth in gains and losses remain relatively unchanged. the dow is moving. you can see it's down a hundred 46 points at 35,906. but the s&p 500 is only off by 1/10 of 1%. at 4620 five, still at a relatively high level. still hovering around those all-time highs. the nasdaq is actually gaining a little bit, about .1%. 15,663. tech stocks have been a huge

driver in any direction because of their mega cap status. how heavy they are on all of the indexes. you see the 10 year yield at 15647, and we have really come up across the curve today. we have two-year yield coming up to 2.8 basis points, three years or up for basis points. and five years. it is asserted drop until you get the 20's and 30's. they are coming down a bit. we are crudest down two dollars 50 success. gold is down 1%. the fomc decision, the fed decides next.