>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. i'm dani burger and this is daybreak europe. here is what you need to know. >> we think we can be patient. if a response is called for, we will not hesitate. dani: stocks hit records once again as the fed announces tapering will start this month. jay powell signals he is in no rush to raise rates. the same cannot be said for the

boe. it could become the world's first major central bank to hike through covid in a knife edge decision today. plus, it is banking bonanza. easy day for europe's banks results in credit suisse, socgen, and putting more. do not miss that conversation with the ceo's of these various banks. speaking of those banking results, they are coming in fast and thick this morning. the headlines crossing the terminal. beating estimates for the third quarter. those results specifically, net income of 1.3 7 billion euros. the estimates have been for $1.9 billion. the fees and focus for ing. it is beating estimates despite the fact that we have seen rates very low. this is a hurdle a lot of banks have had to surpass. also getting lines coming in from commerce bank as well. this is a beach on the third

quarter revenue coming in at 2 billion euros, just over 2 billion euros. the estimate had been for 1.9 9 billion euros. also seeing a hefty beat when it comes to operating profit as well as their net income. that was a pretty substantial beat. net income coming at 403 billion euros. it had been 276. also saying their ratio just slightly ahead of estimates as well. that is their ability to turn around profit. jobs are hugely important for these banking results. banking looking strong in europe, reflecting what we saw in the u.s. results as well. also, we will be speaking with plenty of executives. we will be speaking to the cfo of commerce bank and that will be at 7:30 a.m. london time, 3:30 p.m. in hong kong. there is your banking results. could see a positive reaction from banking stocks and european

trading given the outstanding results. pretty tight on the u.s. equity markets. after a fed decision, we saw the fed as expected start the tapering program. jay powell at pains to separate the taper from rate increases. we saw the s&p, nasdaq, russell 2000, and the dow all hit simultaneous new highs for the second day in a row. futures down less than .1 percent. curve steepening. powell confirming that bias that kicked off in australia. that risk-on attitude also means we are seeing some havens to climb. a little bit of dollar strength today and then brent crude down for a second day, trading around a one-month low ahead of opec-plus meeting today. the fed has finally unveiled its much-anticipated tapering stimulus. as for the timing of a hike, the message from jay powell is to be patient. >> it is time to taper with him because the economy has obtained

forward progress towards our goals. our decision today to begin tapering our asset purchases does not imply any direct signal regarding our interest-rate policy. i don't think we are behind the curve. i think policy is well positioned to address the range of plausible outcomes. and that is what we need to do. i think it would be premature to raise rates today. i don't think that is controversial. you want to see the labor market heal further and we have good reason to think that that will happen as the delta variant declines. inflation has come in higher-than-expected and bottlenecks have been more persistent and more prevalent. we see that just like everybody else does and we see they are now on track to persist well into next year. we think we can be patient. if a response is called for, we will not hesitate. dani: the reaction to that,

powell's plan, has certainly been mixed. >> we clearly are setting ourselves up for a policy error. >> the fed reserve is making a choice to thrive to find a maximum level of employment, consistent with their inflation objective. there is a risk they will be late. >> i would support the policy positioning as it exists today and i doubt that you are going to see something actually get out of control and get out of hand. dani: joining us now is the multi-asset strategist at ubs global wealth management. good morning to you. thank you for joining us. what is your initial reaction to powell yesterday? how would you characterize his statements in the press conference? >> thank you for having me on. i think if we compare what powell was talking about yesterday to where he has been at previously, we have to interpret this as a slight

hawkish surprise. of course announcing the tapering, change in language about the inflation, whether or not this is transitory or to what extent it is transitory, and of course, opening the door to rate hikes if necessary see her. if you compare it to where powell was, this is relatively hawkish but this has been so well telegraphed that the market was already there. if you look at the reaction in bond markets and equity markets, not a lot happening. and then they move higher, particularly with small caps in value. they have taken note of the timing being concerned in tapering and they will be looking ahead to the magnitude of rate hikes, how the labor market is recovering, how is the economy doing. dani: to the point of a market that is anticipating this, we are still looking at deeply negative real yields which did not react much yesterday as

well. what do you make of that? kiran: i think it is a conundrum coming back from the early to thousands where you have the fed starting to get more hawkish, starting to talk more with interest rate hikes but there's been very little movement in bond yields this year when we consider how far we have come in terms of what the market is expecting and the way that that's language is involved and the way inflation has evolved and fed markets have not moved very much. we have to put that down to some extent, the big pool of savings, hunting for yields while trying to lock in whatever returns are available and that is keeping yields suppressed. it comes to my point from earlier that the market now has got the timing concerned, starting to think about the magnitude of these hikes. if you look at the fed's terminal, around 2.2 5%, 2.5%, the market might soon start to think even if they hike next year, there is not a huge amount to go. dani: we are looking at markets

betting on a terminal rate of 2% at the peak. he had bill dudley, a bloomberg columnist, of the fed, writing that the markets just are not up to speed with where we could possibly see those rates go. 5.25%. do you think the market might be underestimating the peak in this cycle? kiran: we in the markets got it about right. if you look back to the 1980's, consistently, every time you have seen a rate hiking cycle, the peak interest rate has been lower than it was from the previous occasion and there's a lot of reasons for that related to debt, demographics, savings, globalization, so we think that the market is estimating we are going to end up somewhere around half of where they were in 2007. it's worth remembering that before the pandemic that the fed was cutting interest rates even

when employment was pretty much full because it had such difficulty generating inflation. once these transitory factors or pandemic factors have worked through, we have to think about are we going to end up back in a similar situation? dani: what is the greatest risk here? is it that the fed does not act and potentially derails -- derails what stockmarkets are doing as we see inflation continue to peak cairo where is the bigger risk asking too soon and potentially derailing the economic expansion? where is the biggest threat of potential policy error? kiran: it is on both sides. if we look at what the fed is saying, they are tilted towards making sure the economic recovery is still facilitated and the big that they are making on inflation as well as on the recovery is really on the participation rate. we are still almost two percentage points lower than we

were before the pandemic. a lot of people dropping out of the labor force and they know they need to stimulate the recovery such that they get back into the labor force because if they don't, there is a problem with economic potential and inflation. they need to keep policy relatively easy to try and stimulate the recovery in the labor market, increase in participation. they need it even more now in order to keep the economy growing up potential. dani: really appreciate your time. that is kiran ganesh of ubs global wealth management. let's get over two the first word news with annabelle droulers in hong kong. annabelle: bloomberg understands that credit suisse is to cut its prime brokerage business further rather than make drastic changes to the wider division. the unit was at the center of the archegos scandal. credit suisse presents its long-awaited strategy review today and sources tell us that job cuts will number less than

500. the u.k. government has backed a move to overturn parliament's rules. this after a member of boris johnson's party was found guilty of paid lobbying. lawmakers voted narrowly in favor of setting up a new committee to examine the ruling against the former minister and determine whether those accused should be given new rights. the probe was flawed and denies wrongdoing. the u.k. has persuaded about 20 nations including the u.s. and canada to pledge to stop funding for fossil fuel. bloomberg understands the one-page statement which china and japan have not signed will be unveiled at the talks in glasgow today. the deal will tighten money flows from public developments thanks to oil, gas, and coal. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am annabelle droulers.

this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much. that is annabelle droulers in hong kong. we get back to the conversation. the u.k. chancellor of the exchequer, rishi sunak, says the world needs to turn paper pledges into climate action. we are going to bring you that conversation, next. later, we will be speaking with rich a post about their third quarter earnings on the company it's green transport ambitions. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think it is really important we take a moment to step back and see what has been achieved today. it is not the name of a korean pop band but it has been assembled for 450 different firms, representing 100 $30

trillion of o that can be achieved. that is an enormous achievement because we know public funding is not a position on its own. that wall of capital can be deployed towards zero and helping developing countries but it will be a developing process. we have to make sure the work is high-quality and what fits on a piece of paper will turn into tangible, actionable projects on the ground that will make a difference in people's lives. dani: chancellor, you are cutting the aid budget overall so what will miss out? chancellor snack -- chancellor sunak: we are scheduled and forecast to return back to .7% of our gdp being spent on overseas. it is also worth bearing in mind that even at the level we are at now, we are the third highest in the g7, more than many other countries and ahead of the oecd average and there's been a lot of focus on a slight change. they spent less supporting

overseas development than the u.k. does. we can leave in other ways as well. one of the things we have been determined to do is green the overall financial system. we have been talking a lot about that today and we make sure that closure requirements, climate risk reporting is all being embedded in stream in the financial system to unlock that capital. francine: chancellor, a lot of countries -- instead of finance help. is there something richer companies would entertain? chancellor sunak: something we set up through the g20 is the common framework we work hard to agree on the principles of that last year and we are keen to see that everyone participates in it

and it is benefiting companies. that turns into a common framework. francine: it would redirect some of the finance spending for them or money to some of these countries into debt relief so they have a bit more the way -- the way? -- leeway? chancellor sunak: there is the finance we are talking about. the allocation from the imf, countries like the u.k., we don't have as much need for that liquidity, they have pledged to recirculate back into the pot some of our fdr allocations and hopefully we can collect additional capital to support developing countries and the imf and world bank are working on mechanisms to get that funding to places that need help. francine: are you getting pressure from your kids to be more green? chancellor sunak: collective family endeavor that started

with my wife when we lived in california. a whole recycling as a result of that. collective family endeavor, i would say. dani: rishi sunak talking about kate pop, apparently, to francine lacqua. -- k-pop, apparently, to francine lacqua. we will be speaking to the ceo of abn amro and unit -- munich re. booming demand for goods and a deepening supply chain crisis have driven prices higher. we will be speaking with deutsche post about their third quarter earnings, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

dani:dani: welcome back, everyone, to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london. deutsche post raised its annual profit forecast by 10% after restoring air rates boosted earnings despite a squeeze from global supply chains. let's dig into it more. joining us now is frank appel. good one to you. thank you for joining us pick let's start with your rise in full-year forecast driven by these rates which have been climbing. how long do you see those rates being sustained at the level they are at? frank: this is the most often asked question. this is very difficult to predict. the good news is that our b2b business has pulled back and commerce is on a very good level and that means a lot of our customers have a lot to do and that has led to limitations for the supply chains. capacity constraints. and if that -- that depends on two things. when is intercontinental travel

normal again? longer than people expected six months ago. of course, we have a shortage on vessels because they are not getting offloaded on the west coast in the u.s. and that constraints. these things will normalize it we will see constraints. in the new year, these things will normalize. when the rates will really come down takes probably a little bit longer. it always follows what happens to the capacity but in the second half of next year, probably, we will see the start of normalization. >> speaking of international travel, we have the u.s. using some of those travel burdens when it comes to international travel into the country. how much will that help the business and alleviate some of the bottlenecks? frank: i think that will help. the challenge is you cannot mandate people to travel again. with rising covid cases around the world, people are probably more reluctant.

i traveled recently for the first time to the u.s. as well. it is working well but it is of course odd to have a mask on the whole time and now with rising cases, -- the next year. in the new year, people say let's see if a pandemic is really over and all this kind of stuff so the best answer is that everybody gets vaccinated. and then things would normalize rapidly but unfortunately, a lot of people try not to get vaccinated because they think it's dangerous. they hurt themselves first and also the economy around them. dani: normalization is what we are all looking for. of course, the flip side of that is just a red-hot e-commerce business which has benefited you as well. how much of that do you see lingering as a permanent trend or do you see that reversing once some of these issues like the delta variant start to ease? frank: i think what we can already say now is that we have

reached a new level and at the moment, growth has slowed down significantly but we have not seen a drop. e-commerce has been fueled by the pandemic but has not changed the world. e-commerce will continue to grow. you are now on a normalized level again but it will not go down. as protected by many, that is happening. it has not been strong in q3 but still, we saw some growth and that will normalize. the lockdowns are over around the world at least in the northern hemisphere so e-commerce is a fundamental trend which will continue and it will be furthered by b2b commerce which is getting more and more traction. dani: to that point when you had raised your full-year forecast last month, you mentioned that you were preparing for record volumes. is that something that you saw or is that something you see to come? frank: record volumes means we

will have more than last year and i think this is probably somehow not much more than we had in europe for the fourth quarter in 2020. we definitely will see growth as well in the fourth quarter. that is our prediction. as always, you never know. even if people say sometimes people will not buy for christmas because a shortage of supply, people will buy something. they have family members and friends and they want to have christmas presents so they will buy something and that will drive our volumes. dani: maybe it is kind of an overplayed cliche. christmas comes earlier every single year. it's especially true this year because there have been concerns of will get presents in time for my kids? will i be able to buy what i want to buy? how wanted you think those fears are? frank: i think it is smart anyway to start early and not hope you get everything delivered at the last minute.

that helps a logistics company because same level utilization is better for all operations in any case. we have said that. retailers can do a lot about that. as they say, you can send things back three weeks or four weeks and that will make -- the consumers that they buy earlier. that of course gives best constraints to the supply chain and that makes it more convenient for consumers and customers. so i think that trend is healthy for everybody. for the sellers as much as for logistics companies and for the consumers to hopefully, that will continue. we have said that already well before the pandemic. do not wait for the last day. you might be frustrated despite that we are working our stocks off to deliver everything for christmas eve. dani: right, because you mentioned we might see those constraints going into christmas. do you have enough labor for the holiday season? frank: we have already capped more labor through the summer because we still believe that

due to the constraints of the labor market, i have to say it's good that we have lower employment. that would be a bigger problem for rising unemployment. we are now talking about tight labor market. that is the reason we kept more people and that prepares us for christmas. dani: quickly here, we have less than one minute and we also are speaking during cop tony six -- speaking during the conference. we saw more action when it comes to shipping in terms of climate reductions. do you agree that more needs to be done within the industry? frank: we are committed to go ahead. we want to have 30% sustainable aviation fuel. we will buy these tools over the next couple of years. what we need is the right infrastructure. if we don't have enough for renewables, we cannot produce alternative fuel or hydrogen and they think that is demand.

politicians are focused to provide the right infrastructure. dani: frank, unfortunately, we are out of time. thank you for your time. coming up, we will talk about moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving.

dani: good morning. we are just gone 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. i am dani burger. this is "daybreak: europe." here is what you need to know. >> we think we can be patient. if a response is called for, we will not hesitate. dani: the fed announces tapering will start this month, but jay

powell signals he is in no rush to raise rates. the same can be said for the boe. plus, banking bonanza. it is a busy day for europe's banks with results from quite it suites -- from credit suisse, socgen, and more. we are off the back of another record high when it comes to the s&p 500, the russell 2000, the dow and the nasdaq. the second consecutive day we have seen that since january of 2018. we are looking at an s&p 500 futures session that is hanging tight. this comes off the back of a fed that talked about patients when it comes to rising rates. our last guest said this was largely expected by the markets, allowing them to rally. meanwhile, we are looking at the yen moving lower against the dollar and brent crude selling

off for a third consecutive day ahead of an opec-plus decision. socgen has reported net income for the third quarter ahead of the average analyst estimates as the lender extended a rebound in equities trading to beat wall street banks. let's go to caroline connan, at the socgen hq with an exclusive guest. morning. >> i am very happy to be joined by frederic oudea. good morning. thank you for being live on uber tv -- on bloomberg tv this morning. this quarter, equities up 3%, net income 1.6 billion euros. what drove the equities performers this quarter? frederic: good morning. as you said, it is a strong

beat. it is exceptional. we have a very strong performance on the capital market, driven by a very strong confluence of the equity business. as in the previous quarters, that reflects the strength of the -- we have products functioning very well. i am very happy again [indiscernible] >> what kind of outlook for this market division can you give us, given the performance in the cac 40, which hit another record yesterday? matthias: more than -- frederic: more than 800 euros in the fourth quarter is exceptional. the market counts, but there is

this hard work we have been doing. we restructured efficiently and are proud of what we have achieved. >> so you expect the risk appetites will continue over the next two quarters. frederic: our risk appetite has gone down. we are ready if, for any reason, the market conditions were to deteriorate. it is about commercial activity, and i am happy with that. >> one right spot has been the fixed income business, which has been a miss, down 33%. what are the challenges for the fixed income, and what can we expect going forward? >> we have a fixed income business. we have seen less variable market conditions. there is a lot of uncertainty, so it is more difficult market conditions. overall, the capital markets went very well. >> we expect a new strategy plan

to be unveiled in the first half of 2022. bnp paribas gave a precise date. can you give us a more precise schedule, and what can we expect from the strategic plan? frederic: can i just say first of all, i see a strategic plan with two major drivers which would be present in all the strategies of all the businesses -- digital technology and innovation on one hand, the second, esg. beyond, i do not think i have seen many opportunities for -- capacity to further grow organic businesses, but also side opportunities to build further on our differentiating assets. we have not talked about the fleet management, the car fleet, which has had exceptional performances. we want to push the differentiating assets.

there is a lot of execution, but i think it is very positive for our clients, staff, and shareholders. >> lots of things we have heard in terms of the economic rebound. one of them is inflation. do you believe christine lagarde that these inflationary pressures are temporary, and how are you dealing with them? >> let's be realistic. structural challenges of the european banking sector remains. we have lower rates. it is very clear. it is tough to say that we can also expect the growth to slow down next year. we remain positive, constricted, but we know that yes [indiscernible] after what we experienced in 2020. inflation is a big debate, let's face it.

i think when we know a little bit more midyear whether it is a one-off or if it is a cycle with an increase of wages, which could fuel future price increases. it is too early to say, but i think it could be there for some time. >> you expect inflation to tuck in the middle of next year? frederic: i think we will know a little bit better if it is a structural increase, or if it is just a one-off following the exit of the lockdowns. let's wait. i think inflation could be there for some time. >> is this what your clients are concerned about, inflation pressure? frederic: certainly. there is the issue of the supply chain, for example, the semi conductors. but in the transformation of our

economy, we need some commodities. also, the prices of gas and oil, there is this paradox, because yes, we want to change and limit the increase in temperature, but at the same time, we need gas and oil. we are going to be in a pretty complex environment next year. >> do you think this hurdle, what you just mentioned, do you think there is a low cost of risk? frederic: no. we have kept all of our buffers put in place in 2020. despite it, very low cost of risk. we are going to enter 2022 with all these buffers. personally, i do not see any big impacts. it is not just three for france, it is also true for

international retail in russia and africa. >> you are dividends have a 50% payout ratio. do you think if the situation continues the way it is, you could actually tweak your dividend policy next year? frederic: for us, we have a business model where bc growth opportunities, both organically and potentially external growth opportunity. i think 50% is the right level. let me remind you that we are launching today are share buyback program, 470 million, which should be completed by year-end. we have already provisioned 2. -- 2.03 euros per share for both potential dividend and share buyback. we have in mind at least 20%

share buyback in our dividend policy. >> we are in the middle of cop 26 taking place in glasgow. yesterday was climate finals day. -- climate finance day. today we have new commitments from the private sector. are you ready to stop completely financing both of conventional and unconventional oil and gas business? frederic: what we did, we were one of the first banks, and we were a leader in the transition to say that in the short term we will reduce, in absolute terms, the financing of the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, by 10% into 2025. it is billions of dollars. but let's be realistic, do we want to have millions of job cuts? it would be a hurdle. we need to the company our

clients and companies. we are ranked among the best banks in the world. we are active and making a progressive shift of our credit portfolio towards renewable, where we are also one of the world leaders. >> iq so much for this live interview from your headquarters -- thank you so much for this live interview from your headquarters. dani. dani: a fascinating conversation. thank you. a lot of interesting talk about not just their earnings, but inflation as well, with frederic saying it might be too soon to say whether it is structural. you have new lines coming from credit suisse. the cfo on a call with journalists at the moment, saying they have made provisions for grain. the cfo also seeing litigation

provisions increased as well. an interesting tidbit, in their investor day presentation, 108 pages, the word "risk" appears 55 times. that gives you an idea of changes they are making. in terms of their results, they were pretty mixed, but the takeaway is that they are exiting prime services when it comes to their investment banking. they are also unifying their wealth management under one global unit, trying to emphasize that part of the business, stepping back from investment banking to some degree. risk the operative word when it comes to credit suisse. we have plenty more banking conversations on the way. we are also going to be talking to commerce banks cfo around 7:30 a.m. london time. after 8:30 a.m. london, we are going to bring you an exclusive double interview. we have the ceo and chairman of credit suisse. a lot a conversation about risk management. coming up, we are going to talk about opec-plus heading for a

showdown with president biden. the cartel decides whether to heat american demands for more oil. ♪

dani: welcome back. opec-plus is headed for a potential clash with the white house. the alliance will have to decide whether to open the tabs and heed -- heed american demands when it meets today. >> if you take a look at gas prices and oil prices, that is the consequence of, thus far, the refusal of russia or the opec nations to pump more oil.

we will see what happens on that score sooner than later. dani: but there has been pushback. some embers of opec feel the cartel should stick with his plan to increase output gradually. joining us is the senior research scholar at the center on global energy policy at columbia university. thanks for joining us. how much at stake politically is there in today's opec-plus meeting? christof: good morning. i don't think that much yet, but it is certainly ratcheting up. biden has maneuvered himself in a very difficult position. at the same time, requesting from his own domestic oil industry to take it easy. talking about access restrictions and then having to turn around in the face of high gas prices to ask for more

production is not boosting credibility. the last time opec produced in april 2020, it was the u.s. and in the trump administration prodding them into this agreement of restraining production and dealing with the covid collapse in demand. after that, there is a long history where every time gas prices have risen, the u.s. appeals to opec to produce more. it has become a thing that is not taken too seriously at the moment, but if it continues, that may change. dani: to that point, what exactly could that point be where opec needs to heed these warnings from the u.s. question mark -- the u.s.? at what point does saudi arabia and the rest of opec-plus need

to confront a potential political issue? christof: this is a familiar script. we are at the level where opec is called a cartel. the other pressure will be political and will be the political support and military support of the u.s. don't forget this time is a bit different also, because on the others of the table is not just opec or saudi arabia, it is also russia. i do not think this russian administration has too much appetite to jump in when the u.s. asks for higher oil production. dani: given all that, how steep could we see oil prices climb? we heard from francisco from bank of america, who has been in oil bull but his prediction for oil is $120 a barrel come june. are these bets reasonable in

this environment? christof: we do not know what will happen in the short term with price spikes, but it is well advised to keep in mind the following. the world has no shortage of oil at all. in fact, we are oversupplied. the reason we have high oil prices is because the producer group [indiscernible] opec still has plenty of spare capacity, 2.5 million barrels production below what it was in 2019, so they could change the situation with the stroke of a pen. and there is shale gradually coming back. i think during the winter, we could see price spikes, perhaps. but generally, this is probably is worse as it gets, and it should get better from a consumer point of view as we enter the spring because there is more opec supply coming on, shale coming back to the table, and the best cure for high prices are high prices. dani: the other factor that

might add to that and help alleviate some of the prices is iranian crude oil coming back online. where do you pen the likelihood of that? christof: that is correct, and i think the likelihood that it comes back online officially is pretty high, but there was emphasis on officially because iran is already selling oil. the sanctions are not effective anymore. we should see an increase if there is an agreement between iran and european the u.s., and i would not rule that out only in a few months' time. but we are also talking about private sector supply, particularly u.s. shale, and we are talking about the normal course that prevents new discoveries, in particular guiana coming online. there is plenty of oil in the world. iran is one important building block of it, but not the only one, just the most visible. dani: christof, great to have

you on ahead of the opec-plus decision. that is christof rule of columbia university. the bank of england could become the world's first central bank to hike since covid in a nice edge decision today. we have that story next. ♪

dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. we are just gone 6:53 a.m.. i'm dani burger. could the bank be learned become the first major world central bank to hike interest rates since the pandemic struck? with crucial job market figures not yet available, these rate decisions are on the knife's edge.

lizzie borden joins us to walk us through. we had the new boe chief economist saying that today's decision will be finely balanced, so what are we expecting from the central bank today? lizzie: this is the most exciting day in monetary policy in the u.k. for a long time. markets are convinced that the bank of england is going to raise rates to 1.25% today, the first rate hike since the pandemic crisis. economists are increasingly coming around to that view. the backdrop is this rise of inflation about the banks to percent target, a slew of hawkish hints, including from the governor, and a more generous than expected budget from chancellor rishi sunak last week. the bank of england is going to want to assert its credibility, show that it is in control of inflation and the market, but at the same time, you've got the committee morning that maybe they should wait for clearer data on the labor market.

maybe they should wait to see how covid plans out over the -- pans out over the winter, see if restrictions are reintroduced. whichever way it goes, today's decision is likely to be a close call. dani: do we have details or expectations on how the mpc is likely to vote? lizzie: if you look at our spectrometer of the monetary policy committee, on the blue side, you've got three doves, and on the orange side you've got two hawks, both of whom have urged tightening, albeit in the form of ending quantitative easing early. and you have two that may vote with them today, which leaves the decision in the hands of two deputy governors. we will get that decision at noon today. dani: i feel like it is the super bowl for central-bank decisions. it is exciting coming from the boe, certainly. lizzie, you have a big day ahead of you. great reporting.

it is a busy day all around. on top of the boe, we have the opec-plus meeting at also a ton of earnings to come. we are going to be getting numbers from sansbury's. we also had numbers from wizz air, where earnings missed estimates, and the budget airline expected a loss in the third quarter. we are also going to speak with the wizz air ceo after 7:30 a.m. london time. we are also going to bring you more banking conversations. we have the ceo of commerzbank at 7:30, and an interview with the credit suisse ceo and chairman after 8:30 a.m. london time. if that is not enough for you, there is plenty more to come from cop today. don't miss the conversations happening throughout the morning. the conversation is really going to be about credit suisse, especially once shares open, planning to exit parts of their investment bank, specifically

prime services, really focusing on their wealth management unit. it is all about risk, mention 55 times on their 108 page report. that is it for us on daybreak: europe. we have the european open next. ♪

anna: good morning. the cash is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. the fed stops tapering. jay powell says the central bank will start trimming asset purchases this month, but he is in no rush to raise rates. bank of england's rate decision could go either way. the boe could become the world's first major central bank to hike since covid. credit suisse plans to