towards inflation is the risk for markets. >> transitory for economic policy purposes. it doesn't affect the underlying trend. >> the second derivative telling you the peak in inflation is over. >> i am an optimist on the inflation outlook. i do not think it will be the 1970's all over again. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: is payrolls friday. good morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. the record run continues in this equity market. futures advancing .2%. all-time highs on payrolls friday. tom: what does the stock market say about the american economy? alan greenspan would say the equity market boats every minute every day.

look at the division on the 8:30 report. stephen stanley of amherst pierpont, they are far apart. jonathan: what does that tell you that we have a range of 700,000 at the top end and 250,000 at the bottom? that spread is still incredibly wide. tom: we will go to the former governor of the fed. this is not in the textbook he to teach in chicago. jonathan: 450,000 is the number we are looking for. equity futures up 10 on the s&p 500, advancing .2%. into the bond market yields are unchanged at 1.5211. can we talk about the front end of the curve in the u.k.? what communication mess for the bank of england. i thought francine lacqua's interview with the governor was fantastic, really pushing him on whether it was down to them talking too much through october.

tom: they are managing the message and where i see it is in the real yield. the real yield this afternoon will be fascinating with jon ferro. you see off of bailey, off of jay powell, where nominal yields are and higher inflation -- we should name a tv show after that. jonathan: lisa has the perfect set up. she can hear me but she cannot hear you. can it get any better than that? it means lisa and i get to talk to each other and she gets to ignore you this morning. lisa: i did not hear anything. today is a massive date and i wonder what the threshold is for jay powell to come in and say it is running hotter than we expected. jonathan: the chairman reportedly visited the white house yesterday. a report over at ask eos they have been encouraged -- at axios that senators have been encouraged to meet with the fed chair before thanksgiving. lisa: has four months left

before the end of the four year term of jay powell. the past 4, 8, and 12 years, fed chairs were already nominated. we have a limited amount of time and this matters more than ever in terms of the trajectory for the federal reserve. jonathan: it looks like that decision could be close and maybe we will find out who is leading the central bank. that is important. if you have a reaction function, change of leadership inflection points in inflection points in monetary policy, i think it is complex to do. tom: part of it is a calendar. there is something ought about the december 15 meeting and the decision tree of the fed each and every year about this time gets a little strange. jonathan: can you hear tom now? lisa: i can. my life is back to normal. it is friday and i am so happy.

tom, i am always happy to hear you. randy crossed her joins us. where should the emphasis be today in this labor market report when we think about what the fed will do next? randy: one of the reasons you are seeing this wide dispersion of estimates is because everyone knows the labor market is on fire. we do not know whether the jobs are being created. it is just like last month when we talk about the number was low but it was not because the job market was weak, it was because the job market was strong. we do not know if people will be willing to take those jobs or come back into the job market. there a lot of jobs out there and people feel confident about the market. no matter what people will say the jobs market is still on fire. tom: does the financial makeup of this nation come in honor of alan meltzer at carnegie mellon,

that is a school in pittsburgh southeast of chicago. you may have heard it. should we aggregate our national feel for the economy. are we so in equal there are essentially two americas in our economics? randall: it is very important to disaggregate, to understand what is going on you have to get to the micro fundamentals. you do not want to ignore the macro, but to understand what has been the big picture macro, you have to pull those pieces apart and look at the micro fundamentals. lisa: when will we know whether the labor market is tight or loose. this seems to be the key debate not only among economists but the federal reserve. randall: it is not about the number. we focus too much on the particular number. last month i said the number might be low but that is because the market is so tight and

people are so optimistic about future wage gains they will wait. no matter what, i will interpret it as a strong labor market. there are some a job openings and people are quitting. people do not quit a lot if they do not have a lot of confidence in the market. we just saw the employment cost index by cap yesterday. lisa: what i was -- spike up yesterday. lisa: what i was getting at was a new normal where people are not worried about staying out of labor market because they are getting sick or children having the school schedule that is unpredictable. when does the labor market signal this is the new normal? randall: it will be a while. people are getting a feel for how comfortable i am to go out, do i need to get a booster shot, how effective are these shots,

and also now their development of all of these medications. you can take a pill. even if you get covid having almost no chance of it being anything other than a cold. if we get there things will change. it will take a while to get there. jonathan: have you given much thought to what will happen with the labor market of the back of the vaccine mandate coming out of this and ministration? randall: that will have two effects. some people will hop out of labor market and say i will not deal with this so i will retire or not be in the formal labor market, and other people will say i am now comfortable to go back into the office because they know everybody else's vaccinated. it is unclear what the net effect of that will be and that is why i think it will be hard to interpret some of those numbers. tom: heather at booth is the diane swonk faculty fellow.

she is teaching your labor economics this term. is she working out of the textbook? randall: i do not know what she is doing in her class. we give a lot of autonomy to our faculty to teach as they wish and choose their textbooks as they wish. i do not know what she is doing. as i said, this is different than usual. low payroll numbers is a week report. now it is because people are being picky and they are waiting for more wage increases. firms are reluctant to raise wages rapidly. if you raise entry-level wages that means you have to raise wages throughout the entire hierarchy in your firm. tom: we had diane swonk on the other day and you have a faculty fellow who has a channel david card at alan krueger into the great republican fear that if

amazon pays $18 an hour, up it goes the food chain. does that theory work? randall: we are starting to see that play out. there a lot of people who are not going into other parts of the service sector, the restaurant sector come into our doing things like going to amazon. ultimately it is a competitive labor market. in the short run is not clearing because firms are thinking about if i raise this wage, it is affected by entire wage structure and cost structure. are they comfortable with having their cost structure go up? more firms are going that way but not all firms are there yet. in interesting time oreo frictions but you're not getting the clearing right up front. jonathan: thank you for being with us. randall kroszner, thank you very much. your payrolls report a couple of hours wait on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. 450,000 is the estimate. can we reflect on this new

vaccine mandate and what it can meet in the near term? goldman put up research in september of and ministration cited. this is the conclusion. we are not adjusting our employment forecast but we see downside risk to employment by end 2021 and upside risk by end 2022 as a result of the mandate. lisa: there was a survey of businesses and what would happen to their workers when the mandate goes into effect. osha said all companies with more than 100 employees would have to mandate vaccines or do testing requirements. business leaders expect 6.4% of all of their employees to quit because of the vaccine mandate. how do they fill those roles in short order, exactly to your point given how tight some of the indications are about the labor market. jonathan: jonathan: we know access to labor has been a key issue. does this make it worse in the near term or better in the long term? tom: randall kroszner was

brilliant at what i would go to in the economics of the jobs report, this is a hugely important jobs report. full disclosure, i have this belief, amazon and the amazon-li ke are changing the marginal unit labor economy in america. they are hiring thousands of people at a high wage and benefit. jonathan: and they are doing it with higher wages as you said. the president said wages were going up faster than inflation. let's look out for the labor market report later this morning to see if that is true. your equity market up 10 on the s&p, advancing .2%. in the bond market, 1.52. from new york city, beautiful morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: the house plans to vote today on president biden's $1.75

trillion economic package and a separate infrastructure bill. intense 11th hour negotiations, lingering differences were settled. nancy pelosi garnered support in -- promising she would make support for immigrants a top priority. japan is using many of the mortar patrol measures put in place -- the country will distract restrictions -- the country is hoping to -- and a vaccination campaign that has inoculated more than 70% of the population. the changes take effect monday. china's latest covid-19 outbreak continues to spread, the latest wave driven by the highly infectious delta variant that reaches 20 mainland provinces. it is the broadest outbreak since the virus first appeared in 2019. nearly 800 people have been diagnosed. the u.s. justice department is

looking into whether credit suisse is complying with the 2014 guilty plea in which it paid $2.6 billion and admitted -- in a court filing the doj is asking the judge to dismiss a whistleblower complaint filed by a former banker who claims the bank lied to u.s. authorities. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

rep. pelosi: unhappy about not

passing this last week. we had an october 31 deadline. now we will pass the bills but in order to do so we have to have votes for both bills, that is where we are. jonathan: nancy pelosi saying it like it is. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro on this payrolls friday. all-time highs on the equity market. six-day winning streak on the s&p. of 86 on the nasdaq 100. yields are unchanged. your payrolls report is two hours and 12 minutes away. here is a single name to take a look at. peloton getting crushed. are you doing your bike with the ipad on the front, tom? down 33.5%. tom: this is important. what happened? jonathan: annual revenue

forecast cut by $1 billion. guided slower. profit margins. everything all at once. kitchen sink in the last 24 hours. lisa: everybody thought they would work out from home during the pandemic and then they said i do not use it. jonathan: down 34%. brutal. this is not a conversation about the stock come it is about the trend behind the company. people are getting out again. tom: we have to do serious business before we get to washington. emily wilkins joins us. it has to be the ultimate let down risk in the history of college sports all stop michigan state going down to the perdue boilermakers and trying to win a game. massive letdown? emily: we are 8-0, a strong

season so far. we had a great game. i am nothing but confident. i am going into this weekend with the same confidence nancy pelosi is going into this friday. tom: try not to end up under a table at harry's chocolate shop. nancy pelosi feels like she is under a table at harry's chocolate shop. she has to count the votes. what is hard about this? she can count the votes? emily: she can but there is a lot of last-minute wrangling. i saw speaker pelosi talking to a new jersey democrat about the provisions in the bill. later that evening you saw several new jersey democrats saying we have a deal. similar things with the three democratic holdouts on immigration, who came out of nancy pelosi's office and said even if it is not in this bill we will work on it. deals are being struck.

progress is being made. while we do not know what time votes will be held on these bills, there is a sense of momentum. tom: abigail spanberger of the seventh congressional district in virginia had a wake-up call along with the rest of the democratic party in virginia. how does she gain abigail spanberger's vote? emily: for abigail spanberger and other lawmakers facing tougher elections, part of this is they want the bill to pass, they want to make sure they can go back to their constituents and save you like the checks you are getting in the mail with the child tax credit? that is the democrat priority. health care expansion, democrat priority. these are the type of things they want to go back and talk to their constituents about. if you look at what happened on tuesday when democrats were so badly damaged in the elections, it has solidified the one thing they need to do to make sure they're able to hold the house next year's midterms are to pass

these major spending bills. you see that momentum, you see them wanting to capitalize. we still do have a long way to go on the social welfare and tax plan. even if the house votes to pass it today, that does not mean it becomes law. it goes to the senate and the senate is expected to make numerous changes before it goes back to the house. we have several weeks, if not longer of a process ahead of them. that is part of the momentum driving the house forward to this vote. lisa: talking about the senate, joe manchin saying on msnbc the democrats should "slow down" on social spending and wait to see if inflation is transitory. how much is this a common view among the other centrists in the senate that will slow down the timeframe for anything getting done beyond the end of this year? emily: there are other centrists who share joe manchin's views, there are also similar centrist

lawmakers with those views in the house. if something happens with the vote today, if it does not occur or it goes down, it will be because of those members who say we do not have a cbo score out cap, the congressional budget office has not looked at this and said what the spending will be, that was the concern of moderate lawmakers who i spoke with last night. even the lives he has found ways to alleviate these other areas of concern, this is the one outstanding one where you can only rush to the cbo so much. lisa: as we head into payrolls friday and get the report, what has the response been on capitol hill and beyond to this vaccine mandate president biden put out that could lead to a number of employees quitting? emily: the democrats have largely been supportive of president biden throughout his course on vaccines, what the mandates need to be, there is a

sense for democrats, particular with abided administration that their fate is tied with al americans feel about the current pandemic. to get to the point where you have a higher percentage of americans vaccinated, where people can start taking off their masks, those will all be good things for democrats going into 2022 at the midterms. there is a chance this push from president biden could wind up benefiting democrats in the long run. there's is a lot of opposition from republicans who were never a fan of mandates to begin with and are reminding everyone that presidential candidate joe biden said there would not be any mandates and has now gone back on that pledge. jonathan: emily wilkins in washington, thank you very much. tom, you mentioned the virginia democrat abigail spanberger. here is the quote. "nobody elected him to be fdr. they elected him to stop the chaos."

that is the feeling that the center of the party. tom: this is a democrat from richmond. she is in the crosshairs of the independent fury. jonathan: fascinating how much doubling down we have seen this week. lisa: especially in light of what was supposed to be humbling. do not feel a lot of humility on certain parts of the team. you wonder if behind the scenes there are more negotiations. jonathan: whose team are you talking about? lisa: the progressive. jonathan: we've been talking about humility all week on this program. sarah house will join us in about five minutes on this labor market. we are up 11 on the s&p 500, advancing about .25%. there is a lift in the equity market. a six-day winning streak into payrolls friday. if you look at the chart you would not know the taper has started. is that mission accomplished? tom: yes and no.

i think you look at the real yield. it has come in. jonathan: we can talk about the view from the man at standard chartered in just a moment. on radio and tv, thank you for choosing bloomberg. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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jonathan: what a run on this equity mark. equity features up .2% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq up .5%. all-time highs until friday looking more -- for payrolls. here's the thought up into the bond market and the payroll. a big on the wind -- unwind triggered by what happened in the u.k.. the bank of england. two year yields back to 2000 basis points. let's call it 153 on 10 and whipped through the long end and call it 196 on 13 and get straight to the bank of england so you and i can have a bit of a conversation about what on earth is take place there in the last month.

tom: how are they going this -- to china on 6% gdp? jonathan: when the chart looks like this on the far right side, something is going terribly wrong in terms of communication at the bank of england. we had to see a huge unwind at the front end of the u.k.. i want to talk to about the timeline of things. the governor is going on making excuses for this. the start of the month of october with a nice little chitchat with the yorkshire post. it sounds like the government was concerned about inflation. he followed up those comments with a conversation with a group of 13 weaning even harder to the conversation. then, the chief economist saw where rates were and called november a live meeting. now course, anytime one of the central banks speaks and makes a statement, it is conditional. we understand that. no one here is a child. they are smarter than that and i know that when it comes to central banking communication,

it is about emphasis in the know where the emphasis was. my thing with on yesterday is not a high interest rates yesterday. it is a fact they completely backed away from doing it soon when they were looking to make a moves at some point before the end of the year. when the leader of a central bank says it is not our job to guide short-term interest rate. that is literally their job. that makes no sense. tom: today have a different monetary calculus because of brexit? jonathan: what has changed in the last week? never mind brexit. what has changed in the last couple of weeks? they called a november live meeting and backed away from doing anything together anytime soon. blame market participants. we should know what his condition and what is not. tom: what is your data dependency? the labor economy? jonathan: i assume it is the

labor market. i assume it is inflation, but apparently, it is not their job to guide interest rates. tom: as i said yesterday, it was a live meeting in the united kingdom. i thought it would be just another meeting of the bank of england. it was decidedly not that. sarah is with us with wells fargo as we turn to the labor economy. throughout that james and alan will be with us as well. jeff rosenberg on the financial markets after that report. what have you changed on your labor economic view after adp and after a good trend in claims? >> we have not changed anything after the adp or data. we think the main thing we are seeing in the labor market remains that supplies a big hurdle for the overall case of hiring. we expect to see some improvement with the october data, but we are still seeing a limit to how fast employers can bring back workers because of

what is happening on the supply side. we're looking for a below consensus print where we get the headline numbers at 8:30. tom: i believe john will speak with the secretary of labor. when we look at this american labor economy, i the amazons of the world changing your labor calculus because of the sheer number of people they are competing to hire? >> it is certainly having an impact on the wage data. i think one of the clearest of signals that the labor market is in its own way very much tight right now is what we are seeing with wage pressure. overall early earnings are at 4.6% and out think you can completely waive this away by compositional ships in the labor market. transportation warehousing is very much tied to amazon and the fact that there is such a rush for transportation workers and it is affecting will lower

skilled workers can gain in other industries making it tough for certain injuries -- industries like leisure and hospitality in certain aspects of things like childcare to fully step up to the extent they are looking to right now. lisa: we keep hearing about the organization of labor. union pushback in terms of contracts. we are seeing that across the board with a greater number of employees on strike. how much has the dynamic for labor changed as we talk more about the power shifting to the employees? >> it has changed dramatically since the last cycle. we are starting to see that to some extent. i think after this covid recession, we have seen that workers are tired and we see that just all of the difficulty staff with -- staffing they have had. they are pushing back and they

are doing that to not only increase their pay but also some of their benefits and working conditions. lisa: at what point do you think we can say that the fed chair needs to reassess some of the assertions that this is happening and that the fed will have to raise rates as the market is currently pricing in by midyear next year? >> i think what we have seen with now the announcement out of the way is that we are going to be looking harder out what exactly is maximum employment. as i mentioned, some indications the labor market is already tight. we instantly see it increasing faster than any time in the last cycle and and other measures. on the flipside, we still have overall employment of nearly 5 million jobs shy of where it was prior to the pandemic. also, this labor force participation in front of population ratio still points to a lot of weight and supply on

the side. it is tight in its own way right now, but do we see some easing perhaps next spring time when we get past this cold season when childcare conditions are little more subtle, when household financial needs have grown because of the inflation environment and the increased difference between all the fiscal support we have seen over the past 18, 19 months or so. tom: 4.7%. is there an america with an unemployment rate of 3% and one with 7%? is that how you look at it? or is a truly homogenous? >> in many ways, it is more homogenous in the current environment than in the past cycle. you still see wide variations between workers and different education levels. different ethnic communities. i think what we have seen is there has been more improvement

towards the lower skilled workers that are also disproportionately in minority groups. you have a more homogenous picture where it is not just your highly skilled college-educated workers that have opportunities right now. it is broader than that. tom: it is broader than that, but we are looking here. i want to go again -- we are going to hear from james glassman of jp morgan here in a bit. we have never seen the demand for labor. how do we fill that? >> i think it is going to take time. we will seeing criminal improvement here in october. just as we saw with september, the issues keep getting labor out of the workforce right now. i think they are not going to go away overnight. it is going to take time. a lot of this is in many ways out of the hands of monetary

policy. monetary policy has done its bit where it has increased the demand for workers but there are other factors holding back, many from joining the labor market or returning. they are more related to the pandemic and not at the salamone of monetary policy. it is going to take time. lisa: we were talking earlier in the show about some of the vaccine mandates have come out of this administration and whether this is a net benefit or detraction from the labor market considering a number of people will likely quit as opposed to having to get vaccinated. what is your view? >> it is hard to say because there are going to be crosscurrents. we still have millions of people saying they are not looking for work because they are afraid of catching covid. to the extent that those folks' fears ease.

i think it has been slow getting these systems up to speed. really, by the time those systems are in place, you can see more comfort with these mandates. i think we still have to see the extent of these hardliners revealed. easy to say i'm not going to do it when i don't have to but when push comes to shove in your job is on the line, may be reconsidered. it is really hard to see what the overall impact is going to be because there are so many crosscurrents and is a lot of unknowns right now. it is certainly another headwind and peace in terms of the labor market recovery and what we are having to access -- assess. jonathan: equities up .25%. brent 80 and 87.

tom: you have a $1.30 delta. it is an oil market, but there is a lot of mystery out there. what we are going to do right now is speak to the gentlelady from the state of michigan, the energy secretary of the united states and has been enjoying the fair climbs of gas go, -- glasgow. let me cut to it. it is $2.89 a gallon. what is the plan to increase oil production in america? >> boy that i have a magic wand on this?

oil is a global market and controlled by a cartel called opec and they made the decision yesterday that they are not going to increase beyond what they are already planning. as of right now, their forecast for the beginning of december is that on average, gasoline prices will be about $3.05. they will do an adjustment to the forecast in the next week or so, so we will see about holds. clearly, the biden administration is very concerned about the price at the pump and certainly, the price in people's wallets for natural gas for this winter including propane and heating oil. tom: what is the american solution? if they are the bad guys.

we all understand the economics. what is the biden plan to jumpstart energy project -- production across america? >> here's the biden plan. that is to diversify and to make sure that we move in a direction of clean energy where we are not reliant upon cartels and not reliant upon the applicable adversaries who may be creating chokepoints for our ability and our people to be able to access energy. that is obviously a longer-term strategy. if 80 plus dollars a barrel does not incentivize oil companies to get off the sidelines, i'm not sure what will. tom: the former governor of michigan is wearing east lansing green today. jonathan: how reliant are we on opec-plus? i do wander and i don't think it's funny. let's take a listen.

>> i say we can basically do more for ourselves. we can be energy independent for the first time in 67 years. why can't we produce more? we have plenty of natural gas. my beautiful state has an ocean of natural gas under it. why don't we do more drilling and more basically production in the united states? i'm not depending on opec and other countries for my energy anymore. we know how to do it. we should be relying on ourselves. jonathan: your words to the senator? these are the words of the pioneer ceo. let's pick up with the words of the pioneer ceo. the president's efforts have been starting to fire some. do you think it is true that we are reliant on opec-plus in the united states of america?

>> we are reliant on a global gas market. the global gas market -- we cannot just produce oil for the united states. let me just say, the president has not banned oil and gas leases. there are 23 million acres of public lands that includes offshore and onshore where there are leases that are not being used right now by oil and gas companies. over 7000 leases have been issued in the oil and gas companies are not using them. they are sitting on them, stockpiling these leases. the production issue is not at the foot of the president. there is not a ban on oil and gas leases. jonathan: you know i'm careful with my words. i did not say ban, i said restrict. you're talking about why they won't invest. we know why. they won't invest because this administration is speaking so

highly of his big energy transition that you are actively deporting. i think it is misleading to say that we are increasingly depend on opec-plus when we have seen oil production in this country increase over the last several decades. there are some options out there for you. the united states of america is in control of its own destiny. i do wonder if the sbi is an option for you to address what is happening in the commodity market. >> it is certainly on the table as an option and the president will have more to say about that. let us be clear. the oil and gas companies have leases that there is no slow down, there is no, whatever the words were that you used. there is no restriction ever on their ability to use those leases. over 7000 of them on public lands right now.

it is not the president's doing that is causing the oil and gas companies right now to decide to slow down. they were slowed down because of covid and we are seeing some movement of oil rigs getting back online, but it is curious as to why they are not incentivize more at $80 a barrel. you are right about us moving to clean energy. that is the future and that is the long-term strategy and we must do that so that we are not reliant upon fuel that pollutes the air that we see that are accelerating climate change. lisa: to that point, some people say the best cure to get to a greener future faster is to allow gas prices to go higher. they are much higher in places like the united kingdom. wise are not a school of thought saying this is just fine. perhaps people will reduce their reliance and diversify more quickly? >> because real people use fossil fuels and real people's

livelihoods are at stake. the president does not want to see the price of fuel hurt and pinch real people. poor communities have 30% of their monthly income is based upon fuel. it is not right to raise the price of fuel that would hurt real people. jonathan: when can we expect a decision with the spr? is that something you are thinking about eminently echo >> another president is looking at it and will have more to say. jonathan: thank you for joining us. a contented issue in this country and around the world at the moment. tom: the real shock to this nation was not the first opec surge, it was the second opec surge that affected everybody back in the dismal 70's and in the 86 collapse. we are getting back to where it is getting a little expensive,

but as lisa says, it is a free lunch in america compared to so many different parts of the world. jonathan: we have talked about this so much. a lot of this has not been lost on anybody. what is clear in america and around the world at the moment, it is very hard to have a collective long-term goal when you're constantly overwhelmed by short-term political cycle and that is what the president and this party is going through at the moment. lisa: i think that is the core issue. people do not want to give up their trucks. truck sales are booming, car sales are not. that tells you everything you need to know in a country that says they want a cleaner future. tom: i really want to emphasize about the former governor of michigan has been in the trenches of politics as well.

our guy makes clear that these are the type of topics to have to be talked about, not the touchy-feely stuff. this is real for so many in america that are looking at however their use of hydrocarbons or whatever and jonathan: jonathan: it is getting real. these are the inconsistencies at the moment from is a ministration and others. it is not unique to this government in the united states of america. if you asked on oil company why they're not drilling anymore it is because the world is moving up. they want to disincentivize a further investment in the auto industry. that is a policy goal. you cannot sit here and say that this is a natural consequence of things going forward from here. to lisa's point, this used to be seen as a solution and now, it is a problem because we are in a broader inflationary moment in the united states of america. tom: it is well understood that we cannot stand each other but it is an advantage to have you here now because you lived seven dollars a gallon gasoline. does your world and when you

have to pay that much for a gallon of gas? jonathan: for a lot of people, it makes a huge difference. i get frustrated every week when we sit here, let's take the bank of england. the governor will say things like it is not my job to guide interest rates. just about the market -- it is not just about the market, it is about the volatility of causes and people's lives when they start to worry about the cost of things going higher. the rate of money, the interest rate on their mortgage going higher, it is communication that causes volatility. these policymakers need to sit down and have a long hard to think about what they are saying. it is easy to blame opec-plus. the policy toys not to pull them, i'm not here whether to say that is a good policy twice or not, i think we have to look at what is actually happening. tom: let's go to the dakotas. you are in fargo, you want to go canoeing. you have your smart car with

your 14 foot gruma and on top of it and you load up the gas and you go wow, all of a sudden, this is expensive because you are actually driving in the dakotas. lisa: and in the dakotas, there is a lot of land and open expanses and the reality of climate change seems further away and the reality of driving a truck on the road 80 miles an hour is much more present. tom: can you just see her? she had a dodge ram. she's out there in the winter with chains on it not going 80, but going 40 miles an hour. jonathan: my friends used to have one of them. lisa: it became 30 degrees below zero for a month. tom: did you do the thing in the movie fargo where you went out the driveway like we used to do and started the car and then go back inside and have a full breakfast? lisa: pretty much, and then i put on my sleeping bag and went outside. jonathan: and you wonder why she is bearish on the market all the

time. that is how she started this career in journalism, freezing. lisa: let's move on. tom: we are getting a huge response on this interview. i thought the secretary was a great sport. i take real issue from the 70's of going after the bad guys over the horizon. yes, it is a global price and i understand that if they got 9 million production, they can move the marginal price, but i'm sorry, it is america. jonathan: climate issues are a global program -- problem. does it make sense to disincentivize things a home and push people abroad to pump more oil? i cannot reconcile those two things. tom: we will have to see. let's get back to the markets and look forward towards the jobs report. we have to sell this in the next two hours. we have a great set of voices here and i would suggest there's a bit of nervousness among the gloom crew after a good trending

claims report. jonathan: equities are up nicely. there's a big focus in the bond market. always is. we came in a little bit yesterday. i wonder how sensitive this bond market will be to upcoming employment data and what part of the report will be focused on. let's talk about a single name, pfizer. pfizer to seek the u.s. not for a covid pill after strong data. that is a big move. 12.4%. pfizer, 4930 off the back of it. the pfizer drug cut covid-19 hospitalizations by 89%. in a trial. clearly, the stock market right now for this individual names agrees with you. thanks it is a big deal. lisa: it is a massive deal because we were talking about when we get the new normal and it has to do with remedies to

the coronavirus, not just inoculations. i think that is something without talk enough about. if we have effective remedies and cut the mortality rate, we can go back to normal and treated like any other cold. jonathan: pfizer is a big pharma company. this is not just an individual piece of technology. this is a market cap of $245 billion. tom: there's no question they have provided the leadership here and others have maybe stumbled along the way. i would look at where the markets are and i wonder how it is linked across this october to the declining death rate. we are down in the 1100 to 1200 vicinity across this nation. can you imagine the tone of the american economy if we go to 950 and breach 1000 deaths a day? jonathan: what it means for the bond market. global head of rates strategy at

td securities. looking ahead to that conversation. six days of gains into friday. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the markets are pricing in inflation, which is going to be with us for sometime. >> i think right now, we are moving towards inflation is the risk. >> second derivative telling you that perhaps the key -- the pekin inflation is over. >> i don't think this is when to be the 1970's all over again. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." at a very payrolls report, six-day winning streak on the s&p. your equity market up 13. we advance .25%.