>> the recovery has been kind of delayed with delta, but not derailed. >> we are looking at harder -- we are looking harder at what is maximum employment. >> the labor market is on fire. >> the growth>> over the next couple of quarters is good. >> you have to be humble about the changes it might have inflicted. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: starting other we got all-time highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, and

jonathan ferro, together today with matt miller. tom keene back tomorrow. a seventh straight day of gains into monday. it could become eight. this equity market is hot. lisa: definitely fueled by earnings, as well as rates that remain low. i would just say i am not bearish, but the air is getting thinner. at what point, how much fuel does this have left at a time when we are facing slowing growth heading into next year? jonathan: i thought the back end of last year, that was the question. did we just put out a 25% gain for 2021, at least so far, so good. lisa: that was with a huge fiscal and monetary stimulus both firing in tandem. you have a changed environment heading into next year. you will have withdrawal of stimulus not only for the federal reserve, but globally on some level that you should think will affect the market in some meaningful way. jonathan: are you excited for fed speak later?

lisa: i thinklisa: it will be a really interesting. they want to clarify. they will say uncertainty, that is what we are responding to. jonathan: is the post payroll fed speak dump. what does that payrolls report mean to them, and how do we balance out wages, which is starting to pick up alongside a participation rate that is going nowhere? matt: for me, the interesting thing about wages is a chart on the bloomberg terminal. i keep mentioning it. nobody in the controller wants to bring it up -- the control room wants to bring it up. but it is really interesting here that real wages continue to fall. we don't have wages keeping up with inflation, which is not great even though it looks like they are growing by so much. 4.9%. there is the chart. we had a huge jump in the pandemic because of a deflationary impulse, and now

wages are 4.9 percent, but we are looking at cpi coming out on and stay, and i think the estimate is for 5.9%. so real wages are still down, and to me, this is really the interesting thing. jonathan: i spoke to the admin astray should about it on friday, and i think people in america feel it. wages are coming up, but at the same time, things are getting more expensive. matt: you hear these individual stories like the deere story is amazing. they go on strike. they get an offer. they say it is not enough. and they get offered $8,500 plus a 10% raise plus 5% and 5% down the road, and they say no, still not good enough. they need more. the question is, are they going to get it? jonathan: when you start to see those kinds of things, when you start to see your neighbor, other countries, people working other places in those things start to happen, that is a snowball effect right there. lisa: i time when the quit rate is massive, the job openings

continued to climb, the issue i have is also we don't understand what the new normal is of a jobs market. there have been some discussions about the idea that people are moving more to leisure. that could be adding to this whole environment. jonathan: is this something the fed should be worried about? should we be scared of people getting paid more? that is good news, isn't it? lisa: this is why i say the oxygen is getting thinner because you want wages to accelerate at least in tandem at pace with consumer prices increasing. if they don't, you are talking stagflation. if they exceed it, it is runaway inflation. jonathan: are we throwing out the stag word? lisa: i am not saying we are heading into stagflation, but you hear people start to talk about it when you have this mismatch. jonathan: looking at eps growth over at ubs, you mentioned the year end price target.

that is just 6% upside from where we were on friday's close. they see eps growth annually slowing to 13.1% from a again this year of an estimated 51.6 percent in 2021. so it is a slow down, but as you indicate, this is not peek profits. it is offered growth. there's a difference between the two. matt: i find that really depressing, that forecasted we are only going to grow 6% to the end of 2023, which feels like it is a long way away for me. it also just shows you how much you need earnings to grow to move the needle out this point. if 13% isn't enough, that is also a problem. i know you heard people saying we are priced to perfection. jonathan: that price target has got to change. you can imagine it is going to change a few times, and for me, but i use the outlook for is to try to gauge where consensus is right now, and it seems to be

the consensus is starting to coalesce around this idea that prices around the index level will be pretty muted next year and the year after. lisa: it depends on whether you think rates can go materially lower from here. how much more fuel can you get from the fed given that that has to do with a lot of valuations here? jonathan: your s&p 500, seven days of gains into monday. can become eight? your s&p 500 advancing 0.06%. into bond market with yields higher by 8.3 basis points. the jobs report was decent. solid on the top line. yields were lower off the back of that. 1.4827 percent on tens. up 0.1%. in the commodity market, keep an eye on crude. will this administration do an spr release? will they start to release some of those crude reserves in america? wti up by 0.75%. joining us to discuss this is tony rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at nuveen.

what is going on with the bond market? how should the fed interpret a labor market report that shows solid wage growth and no growth whatsoever in the participation rate? tony: good morning. good to be with you. i think that friday's actual price action was a bit confusing. you can obviously get that the day of an important report. would do think that the more medium-term response by the bond market is going to be to higher rates, and we have seen little bit of give back today. when you look at the fed's point of view right now, all they are trying to do is thread the needle between letting the economy run long enough, strong enough, whether that is looking at the unemployment rate or the employment population ratio or the breadth of the employment across various income groups, while at the same time not

risking that inflation gets out of control, whether it is inflation expectations, as cetera i think ash --inflation expeditions, etc.. i think it was supportive of the not having to be forced to be too aggressive to quickly, given the fact that we saw solid employment gains, but the market still has some confidence that inflation is going to moderate as we move towards the middle of next year, and that is our view at nuveen. we will remain elevated above the fed target, but we are going to be moderated as those supply bottlenecks ease into the middle of next year. lisa: does that correspond to rate hike next year? tony: we think we will see one rate hike, and we think the paper the -- the taper will be done.

we think they will take their time. obviously the economy is in much better shape this time around, so wheezing the fed will move more quickly, but we think it is a one time in the fourth quarter of next year, and then two or three tightening's in 2023, so we think a little bit is going to have to come up the market's current expectation for two or more tightening's next year. matt: and eternal rate? tony: we don't see it getting as high as 2% because we think that once we get to 2023, we share some of lisa's concerns about growth risks. we still think there's going to be all of the headwinds to growth in terms of demographic shifts. you add on top of that all of this buildup, that is going to be a drag on growth as well when

we move into 2023. that has us thinking that the terminal rate gets us to do percent or 2.5 percent like many of the fed forecasts. lisa: to fast-forward a little bit to the end of the cycle, does the fed have enough ammunition to cushion the blow into credit pricing and frankly into equities? tony: within 2022 will be a solid year. you get to a funds rate that is above 1% or so. when it is around 1.5%, it is certainly probably less than they would ideally become with while they had their terminal rate a bit higher even though we think it will fail to reach that level. jonathan: tony, good to catch up, as always. tony rodriguez on this bond market.

i always like revisiting where the economist forecasts are at the moment. it is 5.7% for 2021 for the whole year. going into next year, it still has a 4% handle. any other year in america over the last 15 years, a 4% handle is absolutely phenomenal growth. we have gotten used to the 5%, 6% story for maybe a little too long. lisa: how much of this is just a lost productivity, the lost growth we saw during 2020? i wonder how much you can shrug off some of the growth. jonathan: we are still waiting for that recovery that increasingly keeps getting delayed. lisa: i want to see it back up and running. i want to go back on vacation. matt: -- jonathan: tom keene is going to be back with us tomorrow.

there's many of you, including matt miller, inventing 0.1 present on the s&p 500. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden launched a big economic victory with the bipartisan public works bill. now he wants to sell americans on the merits of the new spending as they face rising prices for food, fuel, and housing. virgin atlantic's ceo says he expects capacity to reach 2019 levels by early next year. the reopening of the u.s. border

could generate billions for airlines. london to new york is the most lucrative air travel route on the planet. china export growth has now exceeded estimates for three straight months, reaching more than $81 billion in october. imports rose less than expected. china's economy slowed with revit covid outbreaks dragging on growth. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

>> on average, gas prices will be about $3.05 at the beginning

of december. clearly the biden administration is concerned about the price at the pump and the price in peoples wallets for natural gas as well for this winter, including propane and heating oil, particularly in the northeast. jonathan: this is a difficult moment for this administration at this moment. that was jennifer granholm, the u.s. energy secretary. we will talk about that more in a moment. in your equity market this morning, we are positive on the s&p 500, up 0.1%. the small caps with a nice list this morning, too -- nice lift this morning, too. euro stronger, $1.1577. crude up to $81.78. on the energy front in america, they have been leading on opec -- they have been leaning on opec+. not the response we would like to see from this adminstration. will they left those strategic

reserves in america? lisa: they expect an announcement this week that they want to increase supply to match demand a little more. how much will an energy and oil release really do? honestly, ferro. jon. jonathan: that was my name on the football pitch. [laughter] it sums a little bit more aggressive, doesn't it? lisa: come on , ferro. get with the program. jonathan: you can tell what lisa does in the rake now. if you're wondering where tom keene is, mrs. keene's birthday today. at miller joining us. so happy birthday, mrs. keene. joining us now, wendy schiller of grant university. something that has come up again and again, the republicans are

very diverse as a party, just like the democratic party. senator holly is nothing like senator romney -- senator hawley is nothing like senator romney. but when they all need to be on the same message, they are. why do the democrats struggle with that? why can't they take the win over the weekend and run with it? wendy: one is the democratic party is more diverse. they represent a more diverse set of constituents, from suburban women, for example, who voted for the democratic party recently, to working-class people, some world. so it is truly hard when you're representing a lot of different kinds of people. that is one problem. the second problem is they want the federal government to do a lot of things.

they believe in small, limited federal government and the republican party. they can obstruct and it is a much simpler message. i think there's no question the independents are feeling much more comfortable with republicans now because they don't see trump as a looming factor for getting back into power, they are assessing republican candidates on their own merits. that is something the democrats are counting on. i think they have to revamp their strategy. that was a narrow victory for the governor of new jersey, and that really shook up the democrats. virginia did not shake up quite as much, but an incumbent who is a democrat, that tells liberals, moderates, all of the democrats that they have got to get their act together and revamp because there's a lot of trouble with

that group for independent and suburban voters. lisa: we're seeing inflation is a major voting issue for the first time in decades. how much can we really change that if gas prices stay where they are? wendy: even the local bakery i go to, they raised their bread prices. but they had to raise their prices, so it is getting really down to the ground, grassroots. it is everywhere at every level, and that's what they have not quite figured out how to fix. people think they go up automatically. the easiest person to blame is the incumbent. matt: one of the other concerns is taxes. when you look at, for example,

the build but better bill, it is only 1.75 trillion dollars, but actually, if the democrats get what they want, it is going to balloon to more like a $4 trillion number, and that has to be paid for. how do they sell these tax increases to the american public? wendy: that is a great question. first, it is a five or 10 year bill, so it is not for trillion dollars tomorrow. ballooning this number would be spending it all in one year. it may raise taxes on people who make $400,000 or more, so the state and local tax deduction. the democrats are going to put it back, and that actually hits suburban voters right where they need a break.

so they are going to offset that with some of these greater deductions, do not lose those voters who went with them. jonathan: one more thing from this conversation. what do you think the next obstacle to getting the bill done is? what is a come down to? wendy: the perceived need for all of the programs that they want. do people really want this? we saw this with obamacare. when it was passed in 2009, 2010, voters didn't know it was and they didn't know who needed it, and they rejected it in the elections in 2010 and gave republicans the house back. that is the big liability for the democrats going in with his really big bill. do they understand it? do they think they needed? if not -- they need it? if not, the democrats will have a big problem. jonathan: thank you. as always, they've got to try to

get to the detail, to the substance. the medi are guilty was running away fro -- the media are guilty with running away with the price tag, but that is the job. lisa: that is partly by design, not just necessarily a feature of how the media talk about this. how do they talk about details and advertise them when they can't agree on the? -- on them? jonathan: focus on the substance seems to be the issue. if you can't agree on what the substance should be, having a difficult but to that having a sigel message can be difficult to get -- having a single message can be difficult to do. matt: i think wendy made a great point that it is a much more diverse party. when you saw president trump into power, everyone noticed that the entire house of congress and the senate kind of got behind him, with the exception of one sender that you mentioned.

the democrat -- one senator you mentioned. the democrats aren't like that. jonathan: from new york city, 'bramo, miller ferro. is that better? lisa:ually think that is better. jonathan: this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: alongside lisa abramowicz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us tomorrow. the seventh straight day of gains on the s&p 500. futures building up. up six on the s&p. 2% gain on the week last week. the longest weekly winning streak back to august of last year. yields lower friday, higher this morning. on euro-dollar, firmer euro. euro 1.1580. crude 8152, up a third of 1%. will we have an announcement from this administration later this week on the oil front? that is a question for later this week.

there is a question from now. this is a real text from tom keene. can you help me get a table for three at 12:30, we need to order soon? if you're a chef on the upper eastside and your name starts with a d, i think tom keene needs little bit of help getting a reservation. he has really left this one late. lisa: are we trying to save his marriage? jonathan: or spoil it, given that mrs. keene might be watching. tom, if you are watching, i will do my best to help you. robert, always good to catch up with you. if there is a man we need to discuss about china-u.s. relations, you are the guy. i want to understand how much power president xi has domestically within this party.

a lot of people outside looking in are struggling to gauge that. what do you see? robert: there have been three powerful leaders of that level since the founding of the people's republic. one was mao zedong. the other was deng xiaoping and the third is xi jinping. he has an enormous amount of power and he structures the government in such a way he has created a lot of small committees and he chairs most of them. he is the center of every major decision. the party's role has become much stronger. in virtually every major company there is now a strong party committee working with the ceo and working with leaders of the company and almost every major decision of a big company has to go through that communist party

committee within the company. and if it is a bigger decision it has to go through the party structure. lisa: xi jinping has talked about common prosperity. how bad is common prosperity for the chinese economy or could it be something that works with ongoing growth? robert: that is the point. there are two reasons for the notion of common prosperity. one is they are going to be running short on workers as we are in some sectors. as a result they have to bring in people from the countryside so they can get jobs. they have to resettle them. those people tend to earn more in the cities than they did in the farm areas. the second is they are quite aware of the fact the communist party will be strengthened and the next several months will

demonstrate this, by upping the prosperity of low income people. most of them limited to small and medium-sized villages. accessed wireless communications and a number of other things, bring more immunization and various types of medical care to regional china, that will help. they do not want a big divide between the wealth of eastern cities of china and the lower levels of income in central and western china. they think that will be divisive to the party and the country so they are trying to narrow that gap. lisa: what does this mean for china's role as the factory to the world if wages go up, if people are moving to cities and looking to be paid more than they have been in the past? robert: it certainly will raise the price of goods that the

chinese produce. that will add to inflationary pressures, both in china and on the countries china supplies. the other thing it will do is raise the price of housing in china. in china now they have these little groups within each village or each community, and they have limited the number of people coming in. when you get more people coming in, they will be buying more. you will see prices go up in the real estate sector. that affects chinese -- in general the price levels of chinese supplies to the united states will go up. matt: i just finished reading the novel 2034, i thought it was incredibly exciting.

clearly it is fictional, but every time i hear news about tensions between china and taiwan or taiwan relying on the u.s., i start to worry more than i have in the past. where are we right now in terms of those relationships? robert: the author is a very old friend. we have been friends for decades. this is a guy who is writing fiction but has a firm basis in reality because of his knowledge. particularly being a naval admiral, a lot of experience in the pacific basin. there are clearly tensions rising between china and taiwan. xi jinping has been talking more about -- i do not think he will take any action right away, but i think if you are looking for potential flashpoints in the global system over the next five

to 10 years, that is something one has to watch. the united states has to figure out how it is going to play that as well. the united states has said it will provide taiwan with equipment it needs to defend itself if there were more tensions. it puts the united states in a difficult position. matt: and creates globally, a new paradigm. how much do we have to pay attention to china's military capabilities? robert: we do. you have seen these new hypersonic missiles they have just unveiled. these are formidable weapons. the chinese have put a lot of money to strengthening their military capability and their cyber capability. we have to look at china, not so

much china is going to threaten the united states today, and we should not categorize china as an enemy as some people are doing. that is just going to push it to take tougher positions that we will find objectionable. the problem is we've been used to having a lot of influence in the west pacific. the chinese with these small islands they developed threatening the role of the pla navy and the south china sea, making more claims, we will have to pay more attention to building out their influence in the pacific region. the quad, which involves japan, australia, and of course united states and india, designed to help counter some of that influence. we will have to do a lot to provide a counterweight to the chinese, not to contain them,

because we will not be able to do that. they will become more powerful militarily and technologically, but we could give other countries alternatives so they work with united states, both on trade and on military and security issues. lisa: you have worked three decades through many administrations in various capacities. do you think this administration is doing a good job when it comes to u.s.-china relations? robert: this administration has a good strategy. first it is building up relations with its allies. the trump administration allowed friction with allies it needed in order to strengthen the american position in the pacific. building those alliances, strengthening confidence is important. our new trade representative is going to have to find ways of getting us back into the game on trade. we mistakenly dropped out of the

tpp, now we have to demonstrate we have staying power, not just from a military point of view but from a trade point of view. we will be a more active partner to these countries so we will have to move on that. we will also realize china will be a big power that is going to be with us for a long time, and figure out some framework for working with china on climate issues, on potentially future pandemics, making sure the international financial system works well, particularly when all of the debt that has been accumulated over the last several years has to get paid off by emerging economies. we will have to figure out how to work with the chinese. building alliances and friendships that support us is the first step in the process. second finding areas where we do have common interest, and third

beginning to move towards china. i do not think there is any rush to it but it has to be on the agenda for the next couple of years. you cannot have a conversation with the second most powerful country in the world without some ramifications. if it does not work and there is a confrontation, that it is a weakening for both sides. it is harmful to the united states. it is mutually assured destruction for us and for china. jonathan: supersmart as always. you know i enjoy catching up with you. robert hormats. robert: i'll be happy to come in anytime. jonathan: look forward to it. comments coming from the st. louis fed president. "we may see the jobless rate with a three handle in q1 of 2022." this is a voting member of the

fomc next year and he is talking about two hikes next year. lisa speaking to foxbusiness early this morning. 2.5% was below going into the pandemic. 3% already. that is his call. lisa: let's hear from richard clarida next. jonathan: through the week. coming up on the open, oksana aronoff from jp morgan. matthew, thank you, good to see you. matt miller. it is been about seven or eight years. matt: will do it again soon. jonathan: join us the next time tom is out. with bramo and ferro, this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden is facing pressure to decide how to address a surge in gasoline prices. officials be looking at new energy pricing as a guidepost while weighing the strategic

petroleum reserve. opec has ignored requests from some of the biggest oil producers to increase applied to meet elevated demand. elon musk social media followers have voted that the tesla chief should shell -- should sell 10% of his tesla sailors -- of his tesla shares. musk asked the question after recent discussions of billionaires porting unrealized gains to avoid taxes. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you continue to see growth in earnings and revenues. if that starts to slow you have

a bigger problem. the inflation picture looks robust, but if that starts to back off that also gives you some room to move. some of this will start to get better. lisa: sarah hot speaking with us earlier in the program. the key issue will be margin pressures. certainly we are seeing oil peak, a major issue, particularly for the airlines when you look at some of the input prices given how big of a run we have seen in the price of crude. joining us, lisa abramowicz, matt miller, jonathan ferro has left the set. joining us to talk about the oil price and what the biden approach will be to trying to cap some of the increases we have seen at the pump, bloomberg news energy correspondent joining us now. i want to start with this idea the united states could release oil reserves from the strategic

petroleum reserve. how much of an effect with that have on prices and for how long? >> it depends on the size of the relief and also whether the united states goes unilateral or six the support of allies like germany and japan, which have very large reserves. if it is a unilateral release and is visited -- and is limited to 30 million barrels i do not think it will be a big impact. we are talking about a couple of days at best. lisa: what does opec-plus think of the u.s. approach? javier: i think they are confused. they said united states trying to push their climate agenda and president biden using the cop 26 climate change summit to ask opec to increase production. at this point opec is more or less in the know that a response

is coming from the united states and they are waiting to see what response will be, in the hope any impact on prices will be short-lived. matt: let's go through the numbers so those were not in the business have an idea. how much oil do we use per day and how much oil is in the asked pr -- is in the spr? what supply and demand are we talking about? javier: the key number to look at is how much oil the united states is importing from out black -- from opec. we are talking about 1.2 million barrels at the most. the spr has more than 600 million barrels a day. the use of the spr can make a difference and offset the imports. at the end of the day it is a global market of 100 million barrels a day.

the spr has 600 million. if the spr was used to compensate the market, it would last only a few days. that is what opec knows. it is a short-term solution. it is not going to send prices down. matt: in terms of the price at the pump, how elastic is it? i am normally in berlin and paying seven dollars a gallon. almost all of that is taxes. the fluctuation in the price for oil does not make a huge difference. is it very different in the u.s.? javier: it is different united states where there is less taxation and therefore the retail price has a larger impact on the demand. at the end of the day we are now in a different environment prior to what we were seeing in the past.

the reason is we are still living with covid-19, and a lot of people are opting to use their powers more because they perceive them as a safety area, a bubble where they are safe against the virus, and therefore where the price of gasoline in the u.s. is three dollars or perhaps even four dollars a gallon. lisa: people in the oil patch in the united states, what would they want to see from abided administration? what seems like a feasible longer-term policy if we are shifting to a less carbon intensive future? javier: i think the people in the oil patch would like to see a recalibration of u.s. policy towards oil and gas. any knowledge meant from the administration. in a knowledge meant from the administered -- an acknowledgment from the

administration -- over the short term you will need significant investment in oil and gas because that is what the economy of the united states needs today. matt: ever since "jagged little pill" i am not sure i have a handle on the word ironic, but is it ironic to you that we have all of these world leaders talk about fighting climate change, and now all of these world leaders are begging opec to hit the earth harder and pull more resources out? javier: i think it sounds ironic. for some people it could sound hypocrisy. at the end of the date the global economy still runs on fossil fuels. you will not be able to do a transition to cleaner energy if the global economy is not healthy and for that you need higher oil and gas and coal production. lisa: javier blas from bloomberg

news. matt miller, you will put it is like rain on your wedding day in my head? matt: a free ride when you've already paid? lisa: you want to sing and i will not let you. we let tom and that is enough. this is a significant issue into the 2022 elections. if prices rise for gas that becomes an election issue. although prices are rising across the board's has special residence in the united states. matt: the big issues are the ones that hit voters wallets. income taxes, are they going to rise? a salt deduction, are we going to get it? prices at the pump, will they continue to be relatively high for american standards? i repeat they are still half of what i pay in berlin. lisa: and other countries prices have really gone up higher. consumers have gotten accustomed

to using less. in the united states trucks sell more quickly than cars do. the idea is how you change a society without allowing some of the pain to be passed along? this seems to be a conundrum for this administration that is not yet acknowledging we have not reached a point where we can transition in a smooth way. lisa: we started off -- matt: we started off the show talking about inflation. we see food inflation as well. these are the things people need to live, even if they are not in the core cpi or pce as the fed prefers. as long as this inflation continues at a higher rate than wage growth, it will be a problem for the administration. lisa: and we will get ppi tomorrow as well as consumer price index. consumer inflation on wednesday. i'm curious to see what the bond market reaction is. you are seeing a little bit of a

giveback from the gains we saw last week. yields up, not very much. the 10 year up to 1.47%. the s&p grinding out perhaps another all-time high. tonight we will talk to technology with lisa sue. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for audience worldwide, good morning. the equity market advancing .3%.

a seven-day winning streak into monday. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. equity bulls feeling validated. >> very bullish on equities. >> good reasons to be optimistic. >> 531,000 jobs added in october. >> the economic backdrop look solid. >> the fed is your friend. >> jay powell & co. threaded the needle. >> last week was a celebration of all of the above. >>