welcome to bloomberg "commodities edge." we focus on the companies, the physical assets, and the trading behind the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. let's look at the top market stories of the week. i want to start with oil inventories. they saw a surprise draw, to one million barrels. a huge part of that was in padd 3. export from the gulf coast rose, the highest since july. part of it is demand by the other part is strategic selling out of inventories before the end of the year, that way you can avoid some taxes. that is the day to day. now let's look at next year and what we are expecting in terms of a deficit or surplus. the market could be ready to swing into a healthy surplus, according to the big international energy forecasters. iea, opec show a surplus next

year. however, all of this is provided on opec-plus producers hitting their individual output targets under the supply deal which they have yet to do. one thing i want to highlight, spot prices for metals have been weaker. backwardation has not. now you have six of the base industrial metals like aluminum and zinc all in backwardation. that is the first time since 2007. that means the spot price is still above future prices. let's get back to the energy story. front and center, what will we do about the oil price? china could be releasing some of its oil from its strategic reserve, days after the u.s. invited it to participate in a joint sale. will kennedy, who leads energy coverage in europe joins me now from london. thank you for staying late or me. in theory, how much could the u.s. and china release?

what is the commercial availability? will: in china, commercially and in the strategic reserve, more than 900 million barrels of oil. a huge amount. the u.s. has several hundred million barrels in its strategic reserve. it is a lot of oil, but the commercial reserves are one thing, but the state-controlled strategic reserves are there as a strategic reserve. you are probably talking about a fraction of that, tens of millions of barrels. alix: as china and the u.s. done this before together? will: that is what is fascinating about today's story. you have the two world largest oil consumers working together. they have quite an antagonistic relationship in many ways, but here they have found a common interest. it was discussed at the summit between president biden and xi on monday, and they seem to be

acting quite fast. it is important to the oil market that they are willing to consider the sort of coordinated action to bring prices down. people in riyadh will be taking note. alix: opec-plus suppliers and now you have a cartel of consumers. but when they have to do to materially change the oil price? what kind of release, how quick? will: what is interesting about the oil price over the last three weeks, nothing has happened yet, but all of this jawboning and the phonetic pressure from the biden administration has worked. after the opec meeting in november, when they clearly said , no, you are not getting any extra oil, we think it is fine. the president changed tack and started talking about the

release, putting pressure on other consumer countries to talk about changing refining members. oil prices are seven dollars lower than where they were. in some sense, it is working. it is hard to belong in this market. if you are a traitor, you may want to be -- trader, you may want to belong on the fundamentals, but if you know the president can put 50 million barrels into the market at any time, that is a dangerous place to be. that is a long-winded way of saying, it has had an impact even before it happens. i think the real issue for both china and the u.s. is you cannot keep doing it again and again, or you will have no strategic reserve. alix: will the verbal intervention now be a tool in the toolbox? will: yes, i think so. like with any verbal intervention, as in life, you need to be showing will this to

follow through, or the market will call your bluff. what we can take away from this period is that we have a president who is not keen on opec, who is under pressure because of inflation, high gas prices in particular, and is willing to make it a top political priority. that changes the equation of political risk in the market. alix: such great analysis. will kennedy, thank you. time for commodity in chief, where we talk to one executive in the commodity world. today, it is doug campbell, ceo of solid power. i want to look at how traditional lithium-ion batteries were. -- work. that generates electricity. these batteries pack a serious punch and can produce a lot of

energy, plus you can also reuse them a lot. to prevent the battery from overheating, an ev uses a cool liquid that flows between the batteries. it then takes an inverter and changes that into power. this produces a rotating magnetic field in the motor, and you have power. here is one problem. range anxiety. how far can you really get on one charge? sometimes these batteries can catch fire. one solution is solid-state batteries. the liquid is replaced with solid matter. enter solid power. it is producing the solid batteries in a traditional lithium-ion process, helping to streamline the process. these companies back solid power. sk innovation also announced it

will unveil its own solid power cells, and is in a spac which will help fund its growth plans. the solid-state dream has been around for a while. every carmaker wants a piece of that pie. i recently caught up with solid power ceo doug campbell and asked him why this time is different. doug: one of the main pain points right now is the cost of electric vehicles. the cost needs to come down. front and center in that challenges the battery. it is far and away the biggest cost driver. where solid-state batteries deliver on cost is by enabling dramatically simplify battery packs. because of things like high temperature stability, no need for pack cooling, as well as substantially higher safety compared to lithium-ion. alix: you are basically saying these will not light on fire. doug: that is correct.

that is some data that we released. alix: where is the path to revenue generation? if that is the case and we have the production outline, when you get to revenue growth? doug: two pads. one is on the cell product, what we sell to the automakers, what they put into their electric vehicles. we do have to go through this very expensive qualification phase which will kick off next year. what we would expect is production ramp beginning in the 2024 timeframe, and then getting to gigawatt scale our by 2027. in parallel is the material side of our business. this is what makes us a bit more unique. long-term, we see ourselves as a materials business, particularly the industry leader in solid electrolyte. we anticipate generating revenues there sooner, because we would be supporting a variety of other groups developing

solid-state batteries, which in today's environment is pretty much anyone and everyone in the automotive supply chain. alix: are you cannibalizing yourself, making solid-state batteries and then providing the components for other companies to make solid-state batteries? doug: i get that question all the time, and absolutely not. if you are a customer and i say i have this great cell design and i also have this electrolyte material. there are a bunch of computing cell designs out there. i cannot prevent the toyotas, samsungs of the world of developing their own solid-state designs. they are, and if i were them, i would be doing the same thing. in those cases, where there may not be as much interest in our particular cell design because they have invented their own internally, what they do require is materials. the way i view it is, any

customer across the full spectrum, is indeed a customer. we are working with ford and bmw, we are working with cells to fit their needs, but with materials, in theory, we can get into the entire addressable market. alix: once you perfect your solid-state battery, what else could the temple be used for? doug: we are targeting the mobile power markets, anything that moves. batteries are everywhere. in aircraft. emerging air mobility, which i would argue, performance of batteries determines whether their business cases are even close. consumer electronics. our military is increasingly electrified. those are areas right now where we have active development efforts. i would venture to say that we potentially would see commercial products sooner. alix: that was my interview with

doug campbell of solid power. time for our commodity kicker. crowded chicken coops are reprehensible and a new report indicates companies are falling behind. the nonprofit group says among 116 companies with u.s. commitments, only 12% met their goals. most hens live in a cage with only 67 square inches of room. and talk is cheap. file cage free egg laying has increased over 200% in five years, it only makes up about a third of flocks in the u.s. for all commitment to be met by 2025, companies need to speed up that pace over the next three years. that does it for bloomberg "commodities edge." catches every thursday at 1:00 new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. coming up this hour, we are focused on inflation and how it is or isn't it affecting retail depending on what you sell. the ceo of cosmetics maker coty joins me, as well as dana telsey of the telsey advisory group. and they make or break moment for wall street professionals. the s&p 500 rising just about one third 1%, just over 4700. the u.s. 10-year yield coming down as investors feel comfortable enough to let go of

the perceived safety of government bonds. the bloomberg dollar index coming down. if you looked at a year of the bloomberg dollar index, we are at a pretty high level, so it is giving up a little bit of the gains we have seen. nymex crew coming back. $78.94. you look across the oil industry, and you'll see prices have come down substantially since president biden and president xi talked about releasing strategic petroleum reserves. other countries will do that as well, and that has taken pressure out of the oil complex. take a look at the lira. after the turkish central bank cut again, we see the currency slumping in an upward motion. this is the amount of lira you can buy for a dollar. dropping in value. you can now get 10.98 lira.

for a while, you could get more than 11 for a dollar. historical record low for the power of the turkish lira. for a generation of investing prose, stable prices were a fact of life, but now with inflation on the rise, those working in finance are feeling the pressure to call the past of higher prices. either it will stay or go. it is the focus of this week's bloomberg businessweek magazine. you can get the actual paper product or online. we welcome the author of this cover story, katie greifeld. it is interesting because a lot of people -- even i do not really remember the inflation of the 1970's and 1980's at my great age, which means normal people younger than me didn't experience anything like it. katie: i was not close to alive in the 1970's.

even in the 1990's was the last time we saw cpe this high. a lot of money managers on the street today were not managing money. we are talking three decades ago, not months or years. it has been a long time since we have seen a moment like this. if you are looking out over the next year, this is the question you have to answer. if you think about asset allocation, this reverberates around stocks, bonds, everything. matt: headline cpi going back to before nirvana and pearl jam. this goes way back to 1990. we have a fed that seems more reluctant to fight inflation than, say, paul volcker was. when you were on bloomberg radio today, voelker raised rates to 20% four times in less than two years in the 1980's. of course, the market came crashing down when he did that,

and the economy came to a halt. jay powell, even lael brainard is unlikely to do that sort of thing. katie: the current term all right christ and is 1.75%. far cry from 20%. to your point, jay powell, i don't think he will raise rates that much, the market doesn't either. you would expect to bring her even more dovish. that is the wall street consensus. either candidate would be responding to the inflation on the ground. the fed is an interesting position because before the pandemic, they introduced this flexible average inflation targeting, trying to stick to their guns that they will let inflation overshoot. i don't think they could have looked into the future and seeing a 6% handle on cpi. i don't think that was in the offing when they made that decision. matt: i love the story because

you get a sense of how ominous a situation we are in for wall street strategists. if they make the call, and it is wrong, they are just gone. if they make the call and they are right, they could be superheroes, like john paulson or michael burry. these are the names that we remember and talk about for decades. katie: absolutely, there is some optimism. this could kill your portfolio, but you could also be a hero. in terms of that uncertainty, if you look at the 21 forecasters that bloomberg tracks, there year and targets for the s&p 500, the highest is at 4800, the lowest at 3800. that just really speaks to there is not really consensus here. 26% spread. matt: great story, katie. congratulations on the cover story.

katie greifeld. check out this week's edition of bloomberg businessweek, online or on your newsstands. you can also see katie on bloomberg quick take. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. beyers ceo joined the new economy forum, warning of higher labor costs into next year. >> we have seen there is quite a bit of cost pressure that has come into us. by the fact that supply chains are not as stable as they used to be. we have seen significant increases in freight rates. everyone is talking about the charges we have to take for transatlantic transportation. we are pivoting to airfreight,

which is more expensive. when you have products that need to come to patients and customers, that is what we do. we also see a surge in prices that is of limited impact for us but we feel it in our production. last but not least, input materials are increasing. also labor cost increases that we will see in 2022. >> do you think these pressures will rise into 2022? >> i think we will certainly see that, when we come to the discussions with the unions, merit increases and the like, because people feel the pinch of inflation and cost increases when they go to the store. that will drive debt amount in terms of the annual increase would be. always in negotiation but we cannot get away from the relatively though increases we have seen over the last years. >> what kind of percentage

increases do you think you'll be faced with in 2022? >> very low single-digit increases over the last few years. i think it will be a little bit higher. >> i know that you have committed to the one bayer, but i look at what ge has done, glaxo, why are you still so convinced of the model that you have at the moment? >> over the last 20 years, we have pursued a strategy of becoming a multi-business business. we have a lot of businesses that are not driven by science. the areas that we've been focusing on is life-sciences. if you look at our portfolio today, we are active in three businesses, pharmaceutical, crop science, and consumer health business. all of them are informed by the life-sciences platform. we see significant advantages of running those three businesses together under one roof.

matt: that was the ceo of bayer. let's get to something that caught my eye. the shares of john deere. they are climbing after the company and its workers ended a month-long strike at u.s. plants. the deal will increase pay and boost retirement benefits over a six-year period. the work stoppage took some 10,000 workers off the line and threw several of their businesses into turmoil. the contract increases were worker wages by 10% in the first year with further increases. it will also give each worker a signing bonus of $8,500 apiece. coming up, the cosmetics rebound, as people need to go back out into the real world. getting of zoom and before you get into the metaverse. we will speak to sue nabi about

the company's long-term growth plans. this is bloomberg. the dow jones industrial average coming down 64 points. that is very interesting because we see the s&p still rising at a quarter percent. the nasdaq gaining a quarter percent as well. u.s. 10 year down under 1.60. ♪

mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. german chancellor angela merkel is holding talks with regional

leaders to agree on tougher restrictions as the nations cases rose by more than 65,000 for the first time. meanwhile, wearing a face mask reduces the risk of giving to by more than half, according to a review of studies reported in the british medical journal. the new delta variant is spreading fast in the u.k. but seems less likely. former u.k. prime mr. tony blair is warning of the risks that a u.s.-china conflict over taiwan poses. he spoke today at the new economy forum in singapore. earlier this week, chinese president xi jinping raised a red lines when he talked about separatist forces in taiwan in a meeting with president biden. the president plans to skip the world economic forum in switzerland. the president will instead send

administrations to the swiss the resort. in past years, when a u.s. president has not attended, the delegation has included senior officials that work on economic issues and trade. microsoft says iranian groups are increasing attacks against i.t. service companies to invade customer networks. microsoft put out more than 1600 notifications to i.t. companies in response to iranian cyberattacks in 2021 compared with just 48 last year. most of the targeted companies are based in india, several in israel, and the united arab emirates. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

amanda: i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. we welcome both our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. one of the world's leading beauty companies, coty, outlined its long-term growth plans at its investor day. we will speak to the ceo from the floor of the new york stock exchange. retailers vow the holidays are safe from supply chain fears. company earnings are coming in better than expected and some even exceeding pre-pandemic levels. a blowout quarter for nvidia. we will dig deeper into the number as the chipmaker reaches a record high. all that and more, coming up. amanda: we are seeing some of those stories play out in the stock market today. bradley positive in the u.s.,

some negativity in toronto, but nvidia is one of the big gainers on the day, up 8%. going another direction, cisco. missing on their quarter. we are seeing big moves, and a big decline for cisco on the day. yesterday, we saw consumer discretionary in the driver's seat, amazon to thank for that. it is still leading the gains, but tech is going along for the ride. some of the biggest growth names are gaining again today. all the debate is still around inflationary pressures and what that is doing to retailers. we will dig into that. u.s. retail foot traffic is certainly showing signs of life, up 40% year-over-year. this is bloomberg analysis of mobile phone data. the beauty sector is leading the way, a 52% increase. malls, department stores were

strong, 40% increase. what i find interesting, a year ago, precious little was happening. i would expect beauty to be up even more than 50%, given the comparisons. the question we have to put into context, how healthy are these numbers, even though they look like jumps? matt: you would expect a huge jump, is your point. last year, a lot of us were completely locked down. those of us who were working were doing it via zoom for the most part. i was always in studio but that is because everyone else had gone home. i was the only person in the office. i still had to wear makeup, you had to, but not everyone did. it will be an interesting conversation because you have gone from the zoom work from home culture back to the office, where people are putting on their best faces again.

as we move forward, i wonder what it will look like when you get to the metaverse. will you need to buy your makeup online from coty and apply it in your second life? amanda: am i allowed to just refuse to visit the metaverse for 15 years? i will not be drawn in. matt: anyone over 25,000 have to go. amanda: i stayed out of the cloud for a long time, too. we have someone who knows the beauty business well. we have sue nabi, ceo of coty. the company is holding its investor day. with the help that you are seeing in your business, we saw some strong numbers year-over-year. what are you expecting to see for you? >> thank you. we have been presenting to everyone our growth trajectory.

this company has huge growth potential. we have been presenting that the company will grow faster than the beauty market with the upcoming years. we have been explaining how we will build the growth behind the consumer business with cover girl, one of the most iconic american brands, back to growth today, and accelerating with the repositioning of our beauty brands in europe. with the growth of the company for the coming decade, it is a prestige business with our fragrances which are all leading today. you were talking about the consequences of the lockdown. in fact, we discovered many people liked the prestige category, and that is beginning this year. it is the category growing the

fastest and will benefit from a huge surge in consumption from areas like china. imagine only 2.5% of chinese people use fragrances today. there is a big hunger for high-end fragrances. coty, with brands such as gucci, calvin klein, hugo boss, has exactly the portfolio of brands to benefit from these tailwinds coming from either america or china. the presentation behind this strategy, including prestige makeup and skin care, and i can say a few words on that later, has given strong confidence about how we can build this growth trajectory. matt: what is it about skincare that you want to say? i imagine people are using it more now that they have to go back into the real world. i wonder, in some places, the climate is so bad, pollution is so bad, that you really need to.

even those who were not using skincare products before are trying to get the soot out of their pores. sue: skincare was a key part of the presentation today. we were able to present today how we are going to build coty's footprint in skincare whatever the region, whatever the price. to your question, i have told everyone the story about this sun protection and anti-pollution brand, which is a big leader in europe, but we are starting to operate in china. there, the brand is gaining quick traction because it has some of the best formulations to fight against pollution. we presented the first cover girl skincare line which is all about moisturizing and detoxifying the skin.

last but not least, we have the latest announcement we made yesterday which is that coty will now operate one of the most coveted, aborted -- awarded skincare brands that was born a few years ago in europe. that is ready to go to china. we have been presenting all of our capabilities. amanda: i am seeing some positive feedback, your plans including the debt reduction, and you are targeting pretty aggressive growth. topline growth 3% above the p ran average, while increasing profitability. how achievable is that, what are you doing to achieve those numbers? sue: this strategy was really built block on block. we are stabilizing our consumer beauty business and the high single digit growth of our prestige business is going to help us go to the next level.

again, it is really built with prestige fragrances, growing our footprint in prestige makeup, and going from less than 4% of skincare today to about 10% in the coming three years. that has really built block on block. this was, in a way, understood easily by people attending our esters day. matt: i want to ask you to look into the future five, maybe 10 years, to the metaverse. we have all been talking about it, amanda refuses to go there, but i assume that people will be wanting to wear makeup in the metaverse and will even pay up for high quality brands. have your team thought about selling your products in a virtual reality? sue: in fact, we started to do collaborations with the gaming

industry, which for me is one of the industries that already has its foot into the metaverse. having our brands as a part of this new world. the strategy is always to be where consumers are shopping. if people are going to be in this area, we have the right brands to give them opportunities to look their best, including in the metaverse. i guess these people will continue to live in real life and will therefore use our skincare, our makeup, or using the latest fragrances that we are creating, and will be a part of their lives. matt: sue, great to get some time with you. i know it is very loud on the floor of the new york stock exchange but an exciting place to be. thank you for spending some time with us. sue nabi, the ceo of coty. they run a lot of high end makeup and skincare brands, hugo boss, davidoff, but also cover

girl and others. a big week for retail earnings with macy's and kohl's. both reporting today ahead of the holiday season. we will get insight from dana telsey, ceo of the telsey advisory group if you want to know anything about retail, telsey is probably your first stop. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i matt miller with amanda lang. some of the big movers in today's session are tied to retail. kohl's and macy's are rallying to spy the top we hear about inflation or because of it, they

are able to pass those costs on. macy's with stronger-than-expected resorts for the third quarter, raising its full-year earnings guidance. kohl's posting sales that beat all street expectations. those that are not passing on the costs are getting hit hard, especially those companies who sell consumer staples, the things you have to buy. they have been punished by the market. amanda: this is going to be the question of the quarter. to what extent is margin compression the story, and to what extent is that transitory? can a company pass on the higher cost of this quarter but drop it next quarter? i think their gamble is they will take it in their margins, as walmart is, but hopefully this is transitory in a way that it is only another quarter and not a year or two. matt: i am looking down at my terminal because sweet green --

the salad making chain -- has opened 86 percent above its ipo price in its debut. started trading just now. i love it on so many levels because it sounds like a black sabbath song. the ticker is "sg" which is the kind of guitar that tony played in black sabbath. apparently a healthy food chain. i guess they probably source organic. in any case, the kids love it. i think they are hoping this can be the next chipotle. new restaurant stocks have almost all failed. boston chicken was one that paul sweeney reminded me of. but chipotle has been on fire, gaining in an unbelievable manner.

if they achieve that, it will be great for sg owners. let's get back to the retail story here. we want to bring in dana telsey of the telsey advisory group. if you want to know anything about retail trends, she is your one-stop. we are seeing sellers of consumer disposables, people that sell stuff that you don't necessarily need to have doing well, meanwhile, sellers of consumer staples, the things you need to have, are getting pummeled. why is that? dana: if you think about the past two years with the pandemic, discretionary really got pummeled as we went into and in the pandemic. there was no need to buy those discretionary goods. at the same time, essentials performed better than expected. the results we have seen over the past few days -- and more to come -- have been exceptional.

they have been exceptional for the essentials and discretionary players. everyone has cost headwinds, whether inflation or supply chain, getting goods, the labor costs, but in essence, the strength of the consumer and the high savings rate, the benefit from stimulus, child tax credit, are there. this is the first holiday season we have had in almost two years where we see families able to gather again. whether it is social occasions, fragrances, cosmetics like you heard, or footwear, we are seeing an uptick. overall, you'll have retail with the strength of the consumer be stronger. what you mentioned earlier, the s word, what is sustainable in margins going forward compared to what we have now is the drumbeat of 2022, especially when the first half of 2022 we

will be saddled with supply chain headwinds. amanda: let's drill into that. it feels as if there is exuberance -- and i use that word intentionally -- and various asset markets. stocks, real estate, and maybe in cosmetic purchases. those nondiscretionary items. i will acknowledge it, and these virtual spaces, people are buying things that don't even exist. matt: like me. amanda: i hope matt's wife is in charge of the finances. how much does that say if there is a turn for the worst, if we get a real contraction in the market because of rate increases, maybe even an economic slowdown. what happens to those companies that are counting on it now? dana: you are seeing stocks go up to levels they have not been at it quite a long time.

what is interesting is even though the stock prices go up, the valuations remain compelling because the rate of growth and expense reductions that companies have taken, there is a level of sustainability that will hold. one of the things about consumer stocks, the minute you see the increase in sales, you cannot expect it to go on forever. two things could help to sustain sales. international tourism coming back, and people going back to work in the office. that will help on the discretionary side. even on the grocery side, you are seeing paired foods matter. once we see these acceleration in growth rates, growth rates matter. more so in topline drives an uptick in momentum which is what we are seeing right now. . amanda: really appreciated. dana telsey, ceo of telsey advisory group. checking on shares of sweet green. 86% pop from the issue price.

more ahead. stay with us.

amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang with matt miller. we are turning to stock of the hour. the world's biggest chipmaker by market cap, nvidia is seeing big growth in data centers and games. kriti gupta is here. just don't say metaverse. >> it will be hard not to because they are offsetting supply chain concerns, doing it in a way that means they are reserving data centers. that could mean serving the metaverse at one point, but also crypto mining, or simply corporate networks. that is the essence of why they beat earnings so much. 55% year-over-year change. it is not all sunshine and

random was at nvidia. they also had a drop in automotive sales because of those supply chain concerns. that is where you saw those concerns show up. it is leading the s&p 500 higher, all because of those record third-quarter sales. it is the number 30 gaynor in the year -- three gainer of the year. compared to intel, nvidia is three times the size of the market value, but does that mean it is getting expensive? it is pretty expensive when you look at the price to sales ratio when you look at some of its peers. investors still like it, are still buying it. matt: we were just talking about chipotle, because i'm so hungry, but it has done so well. over the last five years, annually, 34% gains. nvidia, annually 67%.

it is on fire. the stock is worth $800 billion, the biggest chipmaker in the world, and now it is doing great because of the metaverse, but not all computer related companies are doing well because of metaverse. kriti: cisco had the demand but didn't have the supply to deliver on that. it ended up eating into their margins. the ceo said they could have got more than 8% revenue if they could have gotten to that demand. matt: kriti groups are looking at our stock of the hour. for amanda lang, i am matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. president put in says russia has succeeded in raising the threat

over ukraine that must keep the u.s. and its allies on edge. on recent weeks, the u.s. warned its european allies that russia may be planning an invasion of ukraine, citing a buildup of troops and tanks on the border. russia denies any aggressive intentions. bloomberg has learned the u.s. will pay billions of dollars for an order of 10 million doses of the experiment took over 19 pill beginning later this we're -- covid-19 pill beginning later this year. pfizer has already applied for emergency use authorization. americans will be able to tax -- text 988 to