are all over the map. >> the labor market is tight. workers realize they have the leverage. >> headline inflation will be down to 3%. >> markets are yawning. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro together with matt miller. the focus is on europe. lisa: very much so. austria announcing a lockdown and restriction in movement. you are seeing german cases sore and this is bleeding into euro weakness and frankly oil weakness as well as people recalibrate the global economy. jonathan: euro-dollar 1.13 and bravely with a 1.12 handle.

restrictions and austria and may be more out of germany. matt miller commodore thoughts? matt: my thoughts are you see a real safe haven bid. the strength of the dollar caught my eye, but then i saw the yen is strengthening even more. investors are looking for safety. they are buying bonds and selling stocks. it is not a huge move in risk assets outside of the fx world but it is a concern. 400 cases for every 100,000 people in germany. 1000 new cases for every 100,000 people in austria. jonathan: italian bonds are curious. yields lower in italy into the ecb. that decision a month away. lisa: this ties the hands of the ecb to talk about any purchasing or and dave thereupon purchasing early. the worst you get from a pandemic level the more the ecb has free laid -- free reign to wait longer.

jonathan: the e in pepp is not over is the feeling. your equity market a little bit softer, bouncing off session lows on the s&p. lower one third of 1%. we talked about the bid in the bund market. lisa, your 10 year one g550 one. -- your 10 year 1.55. lisa: we heard fed officials are concerned about the broadening reach of inflation. we heard from raphael bostic who is bringing forward his expectation for the first rate hike to the middle of the year. today we get a host of additional fed speakers. chris waller as well as fit vice chair richard clarida. how much does he edify even what we heard from john williams yesterday, who said we are seeing broad-based inflationary

pressures. it does hurt individuals, basically indicating his view adjusting attached. 12:00 we get the center for disease control and prevention with a panel to discuss booster shot eligibility. can they recommended more broadly to people 18 and older? this comes as the percentage of individuals in the united states getting vaccinated has plateaued. this is a concern, especially if you see what is going on in austria and germany. how much could we see this in the u.s. if more people do not get vaccinated? today house democrats are expected to pass president biden's $1.64 trillion economic agenda. the congressional budget office did come out with their assessment of this plan and found it includes $1.64 trillion in pending, would raise $1.3 billion in revenue and would add $367 billion to the deficit. deficit spending at a time of

inflation will be a hard thing to sell, yet it does seem they're getting momentum. jonathan: q senator manchin. did you notice the report he will be beating with governor brainard as well as chairman powell. what did you make of that? lisa: what is he looking for. he has indicated concern about ongoing bond purchases. is he worried about a more dovish approach? is he looking for a more hawkish approach? is there any daylight between the potential fed chairs. amh with reporting out of d.c.. we will catch up with her later. apple yesterday closing at a record high. this morning unchanged. a lifting yesterday's sessions. off the back of conversations, the car might be a few years away. matt: a few years away, and that is not a long time in the car world when you want to build a new vehicle.

it takes five years from start to finish. if they got something out by 2025, i would be pretty surprised. nonetheless our reporting indicates that is what they want to do. they want to make it fully self-driving. not like the tesla where you can take your hands off the wheel. more like there would be no steering wheel, there would be no pedals. the person in the front seat not even be facing forward. it would be the kind of thing where you get in and let it take you where you tell it to go. i think we are a long way away from that. jonathan: that sounds perfect for tom and i considering neither of us drive. i wonder how much that would be worth given the valuation of some of these ev's. liquidity on twitter. uber has no powers, airbnb has no real estate, rivian has no powers. -- rivian has no cars.

what do you make of that? matt: it is not entirely true. rivian has a few trucks on the street. it is true. the fact you see lucid with the valuation bigger than general motors and they have not sold a single vehicle to consumers is pretty shocking. jonathan: just $109 billion the market cap of rivian at the close yesterday. lisa: at what point do we call this frothy? the question is can they grow into it. it seems like a high bar. jonathan: hugo rogers joins us now. this equity market, you cannot hold it down. nasdaq at all-time highs. restrictions back in europe. the shrub of the soldiers -- a shrub of the shoulders statewide. what you make of this? hugo: you have tailwinds in place. you still have monetary support.

you have economic tailwinds as well. you have the u.s. q4 gdp picked up. you have excellent q3 results from large swaths of u.s. corporate. the final piece is the central banks, you have the cycle, and then you have this wall of liquidity. the bond market, even though inflation hit 6.2% last week, 10-year gilts -- 10-year gilts -- 10-year yields tells you all you need to go. lisa: that is right wanted to go. you have some people coming out yesterday on bloomberg television saying people are not prepared for how fast the federal reserve will have to hike rates, will have to

normalize once inflation shows its persistency. what you make of that? hugo: there is a lot of work being done by what we have to do. if we have not budged when 6.2% is the inflation print and core inflation is north of three and still looking for lower estimates. we will see those numbers continue rising. you can see what wages are doing. they had core components of core inflation. we know the core numbers will be higher. they are still holding pat, still being incremental. the communications we saw from the fed, we see from the ecb tells they will do appellee everything to not try to ignore it, but to avoid some sort of taper tantrum.

why would they perform such an aggressive -- we do not think they do. matt: the market has already priced in two or three rate hikes for the u.s., four or five for the u.k.. why does the market think these super doves -- when you compare them to somebody like paul volcker, these are incredibly dovish fed governors. why does the market think they would raise rates that much? hugo: i think they cannot raise rates that much. the market is always ahead of the fit. -- always ahead of the fed. you can see that whenever you see the forward rates implied. you can see the fed expecting mean reversion and now on the way up they expect what they are communicating to be behind the curve. the market can swallow rate hikes. the equity market has not moved that much. three rate hikes -- always

remember where we are coming from. we are coming from zero. the three rate hikes taking us back to 1%. the question is can the economy handle that? what people are forgetting is this economy is not being held back by demand. rates have affected demand. it is financial conditions, credit conditions. right now liquidity is held back by supply. if you raise rates, that is not what will affect jobs. you have freedom to see rates rise without an effect on the underlying economy. jonathan: hugo, good to catch up. always just like this at the end of the interview, hugo rogers from the bahamas. it winds me up. hugo: i hate to wind you up. have a lovely day.

jonathan: your equity market at the close, yesterday all-time highs. check out this quote from ubs. "as pandemic drivers of economic distress begin to subside, we look into whether we are entering a new longer-term economic regime. " in that journey of discovery they have a 5000 base case on the s&p by june. lisa: the journey of discovery looks good for a lot of equity analysts. it is based on what hugo was just saying. you have super doves and they do not want to move quickly. jonathan: you think it looks better from the bahamas? would you be less bearish in the bahamas? lisa: you want to send me? he told us it was raining so we cannot get too mad at him. jonathan: jonathan ferro with matt miller. tom keene is back next week. on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg.

leigh-ann: house democrats are expected to pass president biden's $1.6 trillion economic agenda. they had hoped for a vote late yesterday but republican leader kevin mccarthy put that off with a lengthy speech from the or that lasted into the early hours of this morning. meanwhile the congressional budget office released its estimate that the biden bill does not contain enough tax increases to pay for itself. now austria will impose a nationwide lockdown next week in germany may take a similar move. it is all part of europe's effort to cope with the deadly surge of rotavirus. austria will also require all residents to get vaccinations. that is one of the most rigid vaccination requirements in the region. time is running out for congress to raise the u.s. debt ceiling. chuck schumer and mitch

mcconnell discussed the need to resolve the issue in a meeting yesterday. janet yellen warned congress it would risk a government default if it fails to raise the debt limit by december 15. former secretary of state hillary clinton predicts the biden administration world move some of the punitive tariffs on china. clinton told the bloomberg new economy forum in singapore that not all of the duties imposed by former president donald trump would disappear. she also calls on the world to prevent tillage and regression by china and criticized vladimir putin. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ♪

>> with a high level of stimulus spending in this second bill,

the so-called build back better legislation, there will not be a single republican supporting it. it will be a partisan bill. it will add to the inflationary pressure we already have. it is scary. jonathan: that is the view from senator rob portman from ohio. lisa abramowicz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. tom keene back on monday. down six on the s&p. euro-dollar back with a 1.12 handle, down .7%. germany wrestling with covid. lockdowns back in austria. can you imagine if the united states of america imposed a compulsory covid vaccination push? i cannot imagine it in america. lisa: there would be a complete riot. it is not in the dna of the united states to accept that. i wonder if it is in the dna of germany and austria? a lot of people pushing back.

jonathan: austria first out of the gate implementing that. you imagine others follow? matt: no way this could happen in germany. having lived there the last five years, germany may have a stronger anti-vaccine movement than the u.s.. they have a really vocal bloc that opposes pretty much everything the government does. they protest in berlin almost every week and there is no way they would submit to a vaccine. jonathan: given how it has played out, the unthinkable has already happened 1000 times over. i'm not suggesting it would happen in germany. i am suggesting others might follow. lisa: the idea is there is a desperation that is emerging, even though you get the private sector taking the lead. there are so many people deeper -- deeply reluctant. what do public authorities do with this? jonathan: that is where the focus is in europe.

in united states it is on the president's next big effort. emily wilkins joins us from d.c. do we get a vote on this next bill? emily: that is the plan. the reason it did not happen last night is because there is a clause in the house that allows a couple key leaders to top as long as they would like, and republican leader kevin mccarthy use that to talk forever more than eight hours. that bumped the vote back to today. that means democrats have nothing in their way. we were talking to democratic moderates, the ones who wanted the cbo score from the congressional budget office. they told us we have these core, it does say it will add more than $300 billion to the deficit over the next 10 years, but we know this is not the final bill. we are happy to move this along to the next step. it does seem like that bill is poised to pass in the house, after which point it will go to the senate. lisa: what is its chance of

passing in the senate? emily: that is a great question because we still have a long way to go. joe manchin is not a fan of the paid leave provision. you also have the soft cap. the how -- the salt cap. the house is planning to pass one version but you have senators very concerned about what the house is going to do. there is some debate about whether the cap should be in there because it is being pretrade as a tax break for the wealthy. this could take weeks or months to get through the senate, at which point it does have to go back to the house so the house can approve those changes, and only then could it potentially get to president biden's desk. lisa: i will let matt take on the salt discussion because that is near and dear to his heart. we keep talking about inflation and how this is the backdrop. can you dovetail the passage of more fiscal spending when we are

talking about incredibly inflationary surge that has a very political overtone? emily: when you talk to fiscally conservative democrats about this, one thing they say is the bill is paid for. everything we are spending will be raising that same amount of money. that is something they have latched on to. the white house has been able to find a number of economist and provide cover for that, saying we have experts who are saying this will not be raising inflation commies are ratings agencies say the bill would not be raising inflation. for the democrats, if this inflation is transitory and goes down by the time we get to next summer or next fall, democrats want to have things that can run on, things that can go to their constituents and say look at what we were able to deliver on you let democrats have the house and the senate and the white house. matt: i will bring it back to salt. it is not just personal.

i am looking at homes in when chester -- in westchester and taxes are incredibly high, but a lot of our viewers are in new jersey and new york and paying incredibly high taxes and they may not necessarily be billionaires. is there a likelihood that this salt deduction cap put in place by trump, almost seemingly as a punishment to the states for voting against him, can be lifted? emily: there definitely is, and i will tell you why. the lawmakers who cover new jersey and new york and even california are holding very firm on this. mickey cheryl from upper new jersey got elected on promising to repeal the salt cap. she has been very consistent in pushing forward on this. they say if something is not done about this we will not support the bill.

there are more than three of them which means they can do that in the house. the other flipside is for the progressives who are concerned this is going to come across as a tax break for the rich, they can also withhold their support. we are hearing a proposal from bernie sanders, this is not been finalized, but the idea would be to allow people to take that deduction up to a certain income level and at that point limit the event of deduction people can take for that. that proposal is still being figured out. best of luck with the house search. jonathan: thank you. we have to work out the fed chair search as well. emily wilkins in washington, d.c. the confirm ability of both candidates. senator manchin is still interviewing to make his decision. lisa: it does seem like jay powell would get confirmed relatively easily. i do not understand the difference between the two when it comes to monetary policy. that is a key question when the

focus does turn to inflation. matt: it is not just -- jonathan: is not just about monetary policy. two senate democrats joining the likes of senator warren saying we will not vote to confirm chair powell to another term. we could end up in the situation where the president has a package with chair powell or governor brainard and you need votes from the other side to make something happen. matt: we have heard from senator warren that she thinks jay powell is a dangerous man, although she was referring to his regulatory job and not his monetary policy job. it does seem like lael brainard and jerome powell are equally dovish in terms of monetary policy, which is why the market is not showing its concern, although wall street may be a little bit concerned if lael brainard comes into market -- comes into office. jonathan: there market participants might consider him to be a dangerous man, maybe

those were down on the year. lisa, don't you get the feeling something is gone wrong with this search? lisa: the message has gone away from them. they want to seem confident, not like they are playing games. jonathan: the mystery of the next fed chair continues. down seven on the s&p. a beautiful morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: all-time highs coming into friday. good morning. on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." futures down 1/10 of 1% on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 up 4/10 of 1%, positive 69. held up no doubt by the bond market. twos, tens, and 30's, tends for basis points. a rally in the treasury market. back to about 1.55 on tens. on two's, four basis points to about 46. i don't want to make too big of a deal of it but can you imagine where europe gets dicey and the fed has to evolve away from that

language? lisa: this is contrary to what people are saying that what we see in the rates market, it is still a pandemic story and people have moved on perhaps they shouldn't have. jonathan: europe starts to lock down again, lockdown is austria, imposing a vaccine mandate by next year. the fx market, euro-dollar, back to 1.1296 down 6/10 of 1% -- let's call it 7/10 of 1% weaker for the euro. over the last couple of months we've talked about the ecb in one direction and the fed in the other. we get the virgin monetary policy in the next couple of months? -- divergent monetary policy and the next couple months? lisa: i wonder if that edifies the feeling of diversions because you will not get diversions in tandem with -- divergence in tandem with lockdown. jonathan: we got the ecb, the

federal reserve, bank of england within 24 hours of each other. lisa: how much will they be looking at each other to get a sense of what the global mood is? let's get more on what is going on in austria and germany, austria entering lockdown, germany potentially considering this. large swaths of the population unlikely to comply. maria tadeo is joining us from brussels. what was the rationale but hind austria's lockdown -- behind austria's lockdown? maria: we are seeing infection rates in's eastern -- eastern and central europe go up. the vaccination rate is flat. once you get to a certain point, you are not able to vaccinate more people. these are people who don't leave in vaccination, who don't believe in the science behind it or who do it for political reasons and feel the government

should not tell me whether or not to get a vaccine. we are not able to get past that point. austria is facing a political and health crisis. which one do i care about? the health. they are going to go on with the mandate and force everyone to get the vaccine and going back into lockdown. i can deal with the ramifications and political pushback but i'm not going to deal with another political crisis. matt: austria has its own issues and they are almost in a constant state of scandal, but germany is a huge country, the biggest economy in europe, the heart of the continent. how does it happen in a country like germany when you've got countries on the periphery like italy and spain doing so well? maria: i guess what it shows you is that first of all, europe is very big. there is a lot of divergence and

some of the places around europe are not up to reality. the vaccination rate has been good in southern europe. in germany, there is an element of politics. the government did not want to push their measures because the election was coming. nobody wanted to kill the feel-good factor of the summer. public health bodies have said it clearly many times, prevention would have helped or avoided this wave. angela merkel did not want to take action because it was unpopular and it is up to the upcoming chancellor. jonathan: maria tadeo on the latest out of europe. this is how it spills into the bond market. you've got to look to europe, germany, italy to figure out treasuries. lisa: not only will you get less international travel as a result, but could this same thing happen in the united states?

are vaccines less effective at preventing a wave of additional infections if we don't get above a 60% vaccination rate? jonathan: the team at johns hopkins joining us in about 10 minutes. nick bennenbroek joins us now. how difficult is it to build a case for a better european economy given what we are seeing now? nick: it is not easy and the best opportunity is -- but it is a challenging outlook over the next several months. you've got restrictions and if you look at the pmi's, they've dropped close to 50 about germany and italy so probably over the next three to six months, looking at much slower growth or no growth at all. jonathan: i'm thinking about december 16, the next ecb meeting. what do you expect they do now? nick: we think they will

announce the pandemic emergency program and the regular asset purchases which are running at 20 billion euros a month, will be lifted to maybe 50 billion or 60 billion a month by april of next year once the pandemic emergency program ends. we are looking at a very slow tapering from the ecb. probably not at all next year. there -- lisa: is this a wonderful, beautiful thing for the ecb that it will give them a natural boost, especially if the divergence continues? nick: the beautiful thing, it's a nice break. i'm sure they will welcome it. if they look out growth, it usually it will help the exporters and from an inflation

standpoint, it is out of control so they won't be too concerned so i think they will welcome it and it's probably a good thing. lisa: if germany, austria, is some sort of harbinger to come in the developed world, how much could that curtail the optimism in economic projections we are seeing? nick: certainly in terms of global growth, you could see have to a quarter percent lower in 2022 than current forecasts. maybe this is an issue in terms of the dollar and foreign currencies, in terms of optimism or rate hike expectations, canada and australia at this point -- probably will not have a rate hike as quickly as currently is priced in. we think people are quite optimistic going forward.

matt: we start -- we see already a bid for the dollar, the bloomberg dollar index of highest since 2020. can we expect to see that strength continue? can we expect yen strength? we were almost at 1.50 -- 115. nick: for all the expectations for some of these foreign banks are fairly aggressive. even where i'm from, they are looking at 2.5% over the next 12 months with seems were -- which seems rather aggressive. in the u.s., we are relatively close as to what is priced in. wells fargo is looking at two rate hikes in the second half of next year. primarily dollar strength. matt: is the idea that two rate hikes doesn't amount to much? we are still between 50 and 75

basis points and a terminal rate will be less than two so it is not enough to really sap demand? nick: in the united states, we've certainly had some solid numbers recently. employment, some of the ism surveys have looked pretty good. you are 100% right. even with rate increases, it's not going to significantly impact activity and unfortunately in the united states, these will be with us for a while and inflation will be high. we are looking at probably rate increases for quite some time from the u.s.. jonathan: good to catch up. talk a little bit about this fx market, euro-dollar back to a 1.12 kindle. equity futures -- handle. equity futures on the nasdaq -- futures only down one quarter of 1%. lisa: bad news is good news and good news is good news which

means if we get a negative read for the virus, -- i wonder at one point the momentum has gone in such a way that we are moving away from any fundamentals lori. -- story. jonathan: small caps taking ahead, down by one percentage point. if sad some people talking about -- we've had some people talking about reaching for the q1 and q2 playbook. in europe the way that builds my make people reluctant. matt: the playbook is go long and no home because if you just bought the s&p 500, you would be a happy camper over the last three years. we are up something like 25% this year, 17% last year, dirty percent the year before that, and they want to do that again in 2022 and they can't do that if they have these kinds of concerns. jonathan: we had these concerns last year.

european equities getting aggressively lower on the back of them and data on the vaccine seemed to be the game changer. is it still? lisa: we are seeing the yield curve come down, contraction. long-term is not changing the view and near term, we are seeing a lower expectation for some sort of resurgence. what is the next september? is it december or january? we don't have an exit month. jonathan: january 23. the record high on the stoxx 600 in europe two days ago will give you an idea of where this equity market has been. futures down one third of 1% on the s&p. -13. tom keene back on monday. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ leanne: on capitol hill, house

republican leader kevin mccarthy called president biden's economic agenda the most reckless and irresponsible spending in the history of the u.s.. mccarthy's lengthy speech on the floor prevented democrats from passing the one point $6 trillion legislation last night so set to approve the legislation today. mexico's president told president biden to loosen immigration restrictions in order to ease labor shortages. the mexican leader and justin trudeau met at the white house and the first north american summit since before the trump era. trudeau objected to proposed subsidies for electric vehicles. bloomberg has learned that toyota will spend billion's of dollars on a battery plant to be built mayor greensboro, carolina -- near greensboro, north carolina, as part of the plan to ramp up electric vehicles.

toyota has not made a final decision but is expected to join forces with panasonic at the factory. an emphasis -- infamous market in wuhan, china has emerged as the likely origin of the coronavirus according to a study. the study suggests the market was the source of the initial outbreak and not just where it was amplified in a super spreading event. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. in leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what we've seen in the u.s. and what we are seeing right now unfortunately his cases creep up with the colder weather and

heading towards thanksgiving, is that the total immunization coverage in the u.s. still under 60% of everyone in the country, and that's why we are still seeing over 100,000 new cases a day. jonathan: professor and epidemiologist at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. good morning. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, matt miller. in your equity market, down 11 on the s&p, negative two tens of 1%. euro-dollar down 7/10 of 1%. lisa, help me sum this up. instructions in austria and potentially more to come in germany. lisa: you are seeing the incidents of hospitalizations and deaths start to climb dramatically and how do you account for that at a time when there is a huge resistance to getting vaccinated for a large port -- large part of the

population. jonathan: making it compulsory in austria -- lisa: good luck. will they be able to implement that in any real way? jonathan: it is for them to follow through. you've said how difficult this would be to replicate elsewhere. matt: it would be incredibly difficult in germany because you have such a huge anti-vaccination, anti-science contingent there. it really looks american, which brings us home. it would be impossible to implement something like that here. austria is a special case in terms of a country. it's a very mountainous region. you may not see your neighbor for years. they can make that kind of policy and nobody needs to show up and it doesn't really matter that much, but in germany and the u.s. it would be so hard. jonathan: i'm not sure that's a great description of austria. matt: i love austria. that's how it is.

jonathan: andrew pekosz joining us. good to catch up. your read on what is taking place in europe. access to vaccines very high across the continent but there is a struggle and restrictions are coming back. what do you understand is happening? andrew: it's very difficult to understand all of this because we've got cases in germany, austria that are higher than at any time and this pandemic, higher than before we had vaccines, before we had antivirals, before we knew much about this virus. the second thing is, anything that you implement now to reduce case numbers won't be seen for another seven to 10 days at least in terms of its effectiveness. you've got a window of time where these record number of cases will continue to climb for at least seven days, perhaps two weeks. it can't be emphasized enough,

primarily driven by unvaccinated, but we now have to put new stores on the table to try to see -- boosters on the table to see if we can get protection for the vaccinated to the 90% plus levels that we were seeing. lisa: what's the threshold to impose these stricter measures? the idea of hospitalizations or deaths but not infection rates. andrew: the hospitalization number is the critical number because there will be some breakthrough cases in vaccinated individuals, but those should really skew towards symptomatic diseases that aren't going to cause you to go to the hospital. watching the hospitalization rate and how that tracks with the case numbers will be important. in the u.s., the hospitalization and death rates have been lower than the case rates now that we have vaccination, but we have to follow the hospitalization rate

because that will really tell us about stresses on the medical system. lisa: about a year ago we got news that the vaccines were incredibly effective and would prevent both infection as well as the actual development of more severe complications. are we rethinking that? are they not as effective as we thought they were? andrew: in the context of effectiveness is what's changed and the emergence of delta has really sort of caused us to reassess a lot of those initial vaccination efficacy numbers. with booster, there is good evidence -- boosters coming on board, there is good evidence that we will return to the 90% plus efficacy. boosters seem to be resulting in much higher antibody levels that we assume will last longer. now the game is changing a little bit.

we are moving to the long-term immunity and now boosters may be important for both getting greater short-term immunity and establishing that longer six-month, one-year immunity to protect you from covid. matt: bill gates told john micklethwait at the new economy forum yesterday that the evidence shows it is unlikely to mutate again to something worse. of course it could happen, but we don't see that happening right now, and also that this could evolve into something that's much less fatal than a flu by next year. what do you think about those statements? andrew: i would agree with both of those. i hesitate to ever predict what a virus is going to do because it really is almost unpredictable, but the vaccines for covid-19 are honestly better than the vaccines we have for influenza. the antivirals against covid-19

are better than antivirals against influenza. so everything on the table suggests we should be able to control covid-19 and get it to a place where it will always be a threat but not a significant threat. the critical thing is implementation. we have the tools and have to use them effectively because if we don't, we are in the same situation that we were six months ago. jonathan: doctor, good to catch up. enjoy the football this weekend. dr. antique peak -- dr. andrew pekosz. matt: real football? jonathan: where you kick it. you see in -- a bid in the bond market. i want to point out another central bank rate hike from pakistan, 150 basis points. they are struggling with some of the same issues elsewhere, inflation one of them. this tweet from dan ives at

wedbush -- take a look at tesla in the premarket, up one quarter of 1%. a tweet from dan ives -- we believe there is $5 trillion of ev auto market dollars up for grabs. tencent likely to own 2.7 trillion of this pie. they raised their price target from 1100, basically where we are, to 1400. i believe that's in line with the most bullets on the street -- bullish on the street which is jeffries. the bull case of wedbush, 1800 on tesla. lisa: this speaks to the reason why tesla has such an elevated valuation despite the naysayers, because if they have the lead come if they have the most feet in this particular area, how can volkswagen compete? lisa: matt miller, what is -- jonathan: not more -- matt

miller, what is -- what a story. matt: there is a lot of firepower and they are willing to emulate elon musk as much as they have to. jonathan: i have a lot of respect for kathy, not an analyst we track a lot on the amr function. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the call on the fed really is the derivative of the call on the u.s. economy. >> it's unsurprising economists are all over the map. >> the labor market is incredibly tight and workers have leverage. >> inflation will be down to 3% next year. >> we had a big repricing of the fed and the markets are moving. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: all-time highs coming in on this friday. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. together with matt miller, tk will be back on monday. we are down one quarter of 1% and shaking off fears from europe. lisa: we are looking at a playbook of what happens if the pandemic stays around longer, perhaps