the call on the fed really is the derivative of the call on the u.s. economy. >> it's unsurprising economists are all over the map. >> the labor market is incredibly tight and workers have leverage. >> inflation will be down to 3% next year. >> we had a big repricing of the fed and the markets are moving. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: all-time highs coming in on this friday. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. together with matt miller, tk will be back on monday. we are down one quarter of 1% and shaking off fears from europe. lisa: we are looking at a playbook of what happens if the pandemic stays around longer, perhaps long -- lower rates and

longer waits for liftoff of the fed. perhaps a dialing back of the inflation trade. jonathan: the small caps negative on the russell a little more than 1%. euro-dollar, 1.1290. matt: i pay very close attention to this as i'm just about to move back to the u.s. and will convert my salary from euros, but it is weak and looks like it could get weaker because as the ecb meets, christine lagarde and her group will have to evaluate what this explosion in covid infections means for their taper and their policy. you can expect them to get a little bit more dovish than they have been. jonathan: let's set up the month of december. the 15th the fed, 16th the ecb with the boe. lisa: all of these are important rate decisions. the bank of england, if they

don't raise rates, what does that do to their credibility? the ecb i think will remain on hold. it will be interesting what they indicate with their pep program. the fed meeting may be the most interesting. how do they deal with the fact that inflation is more persistent and there still is a covid fear? jonathan: lame-duck chairman potentially. lisa: that would be problematic. do you buy more christmas gifts when the pound drops to a certain level? jonathan: i am doing services this year, not goods. services that are already locked in. i edged the foreign exchange long time ago. maybe i shouldn't have done that with this explosive move on the u.s. dollar. do you want to make this more personal? matt miller is already doing that this morning. the move back. for you, good. lisa: you are like, good luck. jonathan: equity futures down 11

on the s&p, negative two tens of 1%. on the nasdaq 100, positive 50. euro-dollar at 1.1290. the pandemic emergency purchase program at the ecb. is that emergency over when they meet next month? lisa: it's looking like it's not quite over especially when you got lockdowns that cramp services that you invested in. get the continuation of this firehose of fed speakers today. chris mullis ob speaking as well as richard clarida. we heard from raphael bostic of the atlanta fed saying he is bringing forward his rate hike expectations to the middle of next year. we also heard from president john williams who said inflation is more persistent than we previously thought and is affecting people.

how does it dovetail into a sooner rate hike for the top three members of the federal reserve for now? we will see next february as to who will become the leadership. 12:00 p.m., a panel advising the centers for disease control and prevention on boosters. we just heard from andrew pekosz that this may be the game changer to get immunity up in people who've been vaccinated. you have less than 60% of the u.s. population vaccinated. does this put the united states at risk going forward of something i can to germany or austria -- something akin to germany or austria? democrats are expected to pass the fiscal spending. it will raise revenue but would lead to a deficit because of the gap of $367 billion. this will get through the house,

that is the consensus. will it get through the senate when you have senator manchin concerned about debt and inflation? jonathan: we will have this strange battle about how much the extra funding of the irs will raise and how it contributes to the number. lisa: what did you make of that? this idea that the cbo put a low bar and how much more money the irs would bring in versus what president biden would bring in. it makes me really doubt how effective some of these estimates can be. jonathan: down to the calculations they make. lisa: i don't want to say that. jonathan: you just said it. lisa: it is very fuzzy. jonathan: nothing's changed, the moderate democrats in the senate and what they want. matt: you have to get down to the 26th biggest company in the s&p until you get to the size of the deficit lisa was talking about. i don't think it's a huge deficit and it could be the kind of thing that the spending creates growth and then taxes

rise. i'm not saying it is the laffer curve. jonathan: the matt miller curve. are we comparing the deficit to the average stock and evaluation on the s&p? matt: it's not a huge number in today's terms. it seems gigantic for someone -- gigantic. for someone your age, probably not as big. jonathan: a fiscal hawk has changed. lisa: i like how you just move on. there are people into fiscal spending. jonathan: i never consider the burden of youth to be a dig. the burden of youth is not a heavy one. lisa: i love it, good. jonathan: even though matt and i still look like brothers. michael, good to catch up. let's talk about the correction that never was.

what's been going on, the resilience behind it? what do you make of it? michael: it is hard for the market to go down. you have a really good year in 2021 and a hard time of year for the markets to go down. you are at that time of year that people are looking at what has been working and adding more to it. i think the concerns about inflation are going to be a 2022 story. the difficult decisions which will be made, will not be made in november and december of 2021, so the market -- lisa: what's the playbook should the covid wave in europe come to the united states, and even if we don't get lockdowns or mandates, oil prices continue to come down and restricted types of behaviors are self implemented. what are the implementations? michael: the equity market is

skeptical that you will have another medical emergency. we survived the summer locked down fears and -- lockdown fears and medically we are in a different place. you have booster shots being rolled out and the idea that there is some kind of pill that can be taken to reduce hospitalizations. unless there's a dramatic imposition of some kind of restrictions on the population, the equity market will have a hard time believing the economy will be back. matt: i saw your quote in the " bloomberg businessweek" cover story about the importance of an inflation call. what's your call? where are we a year out, five years out, and what does the fed do? michael: i feel terrible because i chucked it into the garbage without looking at it. i never knew it was there. this is a huge change of the

macro environment and very reminiscent of the late 1960's when inflation came from nowhere. when things change at a very high level, it takes an awfully long time for the market and policymakers in the political environment to come to grips. i think we will look back on this 2020/2021 period. is this incredible period of social and medical disruption but when the long inflationary pressure has grown out in the u.s. jonathan: i like to think you read the online version. michael: i will. jonathan: michael shaoul.l some are staying boo -- bullish. not year end, in the middle of the year, in june. lisa: how much is this becoming the consensus that it will be a strong six months at the front of the year and the back will be

rockier as you get tightening with the federal reserve? that's been the beginning of some sort of consensus. jonathan: there's no consensus when it comes to rate calls. equities at -- let's look at the spread. goldman in july, td all the way out to december 2023, that is quite a spread considering this event could take place in the next six months. lisa: we don't understand what the threshold is they are looking at. is it employment, inflationary? who is going to be making this decision? we don't have a sense of the reaction function in terms of changing their process -- approach they have stuck to despite naysayers. jonathan: coming into next year it is hard to work out and we still need to figure out with the chairperson of the federal reserve will be. matt: if you are looking at s&p

forecast, it hasn't been this wide for over a decade. you are mentioning the high, the low, a 20 per 6 -- 26% spread. i'm not sure if it makes a difference to your s&p forecast for next year though the chick -- who the chairman of the fed will be. as lisa has been saying and all of our guests, in terms of monetary policy, they are not that far apart. the effect regulation will have on the final price of the s&p will probably not show its head in 12 months. jonathan: your equity market down 12 on the s&p, one quarter of 1%. negative on the s&p. yields come in five basis points. 1.5309. up next, we will catch up with annmarie hordern on her latest story on senator manchin as he starts to do the interviews for the next fed chair. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

leigh-ann: with the first word -- laura: what the first word news, i am laura wright. democrats are expected to pass president binds $1.6 trillion economic agenda. they hoped for a vote yesterday but kevin mccarthy put that off with a lengthy speech that lasted into the early hours of the morning. the nonpartisan congressional office -- budget office released its report that the bill cannot pay for itself. those opposed to jerome powell getting a second term as chair, some say powell lacks a strong commitment to address the growing risk of climate change. president biden will announce his decision before thanksgiving . former secretary of state hillary clinton for dix the biden administration will remove some of the punitive tariffs on china but told the new economy forum and singapore that not all

the duties imposed by former president trump would be. she criticized russia's president vladimir putin. austria will impose a nationwide lockdown and germany may take a similar move. it is all part of europe's effort to cope with a deadly search of the coronavirus. austria will require all residents to get vaccination. that is one of the most stringent vaccination requirements in the region. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> its rough. groceries, the cost of groceries have gone up, the cost of gas has gone up as this is all

happening in the context of two years of a pandemic, that's one of the highest priorities for the president and me. we are dealing with this issue and a number of ways. short-term is the supply chain. we need to relieve the bottleneck. long-term, we need to bring down the cost of living and that is a logjam he -- long stemming issue. jonathan: vice president kamala harris speaking to abc. your equity market down 12 on the s&p, negative one quarter of 1%. lockdowns in europe and austria, a compulsory vaccine mandate comes into effect early next year. germany could be moving in the same direction with lockdowns which means a weaker euro. we are down 7/10 of 1%. a bid into the german bond market and treasuries in five basis points. that's some depressing stuff.

here's some happy stuff. the audience knows the christmas tree is up in casa ferro and the christmas music will be playing. this from nbc -- "all i want from christmas" by mariah carey, do you know how much she makes by streaming? 1.9 million dollars and $1.7 million. streaming alone from that one song. matt: i'm not exaggerating. i guarantee mariah carey spends that much money and a month. jonathan: maybe that's true. lisa: thank you. jonathan: we once went on a road trip to upstate new york. -- mariah carey live in japan on repeat for two hours. we both sang along. lisa: you surprised me. jonathan: ford f1 50 pickup with

blacked out windows pumping mariah carey. lisa: i can't even. jonathan: maybe some shotguns in the back. annmarie hordern, let's talk about your reporting in d.c. on the next fed chair. it seems like senator manchin is doing the interviews. annmarie: it does, and he is lining up the next one. his team is seeking a meeting to sit down with governor brainard. he already had a call with chair powell and is seeking another meeting with chair powell. this is as it is getting very close to a deadline that's been quite shifting for the white house. now they say we will find out before thanksgiving. it does seem like there is still some indecisiveness and this morning, we have a release and a statement from two senate democrats saying they do not want a reappointment of fed chair powell. this has to do with climate change. they think another candidate

would better embrace climate change when thinking about monetary policy. lisa: i was reading a note this morning that said it seems like perhaps governor brain art is getting a bit more -- brainard is getting a bit more support in the chatter, although the opposition to chair powell is somewhat disjointed. is that your view also? lael brainard looks like a better chance of getting past than a week ago? annmarie: yes, more than a week ago because you are seeing these statements come out. there's different ways of gaming out how to get either of these candidates over the line if they are individuals and the democratic party is against chairman powell, he will pick up those votes on the republican side. when it comes to elevating potentially brainard, she was going to have that push from the progressives. i still maintain and go back to

the reporting from the summer that it would be risky essentially for the president to go against his key advisor which is former fed chair, current treasury secretary janet yellen. lisa: she has backed away from the statements she made off the record in reporting by bloomberg, and on the record has been pretty noncommittal. i wonder if climate change and issues like that will be what dictates who becomes the fed chair rather than inflation, which is front and center for politicians. annmarie: front and center, and one of the biggest problems the white house is dealing with. you can see in terms of what they are trying to do with moving money to help individuals this winter in terms of their heating bills. on climate, i would say although you are hearing from progressives they don't like what chair powell has done, chair powell has brought the fed into a global central bank climate network, about 80 central banks part of it.

he also talked about the fact that climate change could potentially impact the economy. if it was to do so, that is something we would have to consider but as of today, climate change is not something we encounter with monetary policy. he hasn't completely missed climate change, it is just not impacting monetary policy. matt: it seems like jerome powell is mad woke. do we not consider him -- and i'm not using that term pejoratively. he considers issues that other fed chair's haven't, including diversity and inclusion. annmarie: diversity and inclusion, he spoke about during the pandemic, hardships of individuals and even personally, how he found more homeless people on his drive into washington, d.c. to get to his job. he has alongside governor brain

art pushed the dual meant -- brainard pushed the dual mandate of the fed. i'm not going to say he is woke. matt: that was an eye roll worthy of a millennial. annmarie: he is certainly taking on issues that you would potentially see from a chair that's led by someone who associates himself with democrats, and similar to inflation. everyone says brainard will be dovish on inflation but the person who clamped down on inflation was fed chair volker who was a democrat. jonathan: do you know when we get this decision? this is like a mystery to me. why are we dragging our feet? annmarie: there is a great piece in politico that talks about how president biden thinks about decisions, that he is "stubborn." afghanistan, he was set for years on what he wanted to do.

other decisions, we saw this with the heart infrastructure agreement, he went to capitol hill twice and did not tell his party they needed to vote on it. he had 36 years as a senator. this is about coming into consensus, getting into the my new shut and that's potentially why -- minutia and that's potentially why he wasn't able to pull the trigger in instances like today what is happening in this world is sausage making becomes the story and that takes away potentially on what they might do in terms of their and final decision. i would like to note, i've also taken a road trip with matt on the back of his motorcycle. jonathan: lisa is the odd one out. lisa: did you listen to mariah carey? jonathan: wondering how she escaped that. annmarie: there was no mariah carey. i was holding on for dear life. matt is looking for houses and

bring in the motorcycle over, just make sure -- jonathan: i thought you couldn't bring the bikes over? matt: i can't bring the ones i bought in europe over but the ones from the u.s. i can bring back lisa: the one. jonathan: there are many.

♪ jonathan: just a little bit of risk aversion this morning to end the week. good morning to you all. features down to tents on the s&p 5 -- two tense of 1% on the s&p 500. just as people were starting to reach for the q1 21 playbooks for early next year, we take a bit of a punch by what's happening in europe. the bond market, a bid into german bunds and treasuries. 1.50 377, yields in about five basis points. log downs back on the table -- lockdowns back on the table in austria. 10 year treasury, 1.5377. the two-year making a move, .47

on two's. we will catch up with td on their call for december 23. never mind the second-half stuff next year. he thinks they are going to wait. jim o'sullivan thinks they will wait until december 2023. lisa: a lot of people think fed officials want to wait. will they get the ammunition they are looking for? we are seeing oil prices come down a little today on the heels of what we see in europe. jonathan: the ecb can't go anywhere. the federal reserve will do something. fed--- euro-dollar weaker. the middle of december, one month away, the lineup of central-bank decisions, the 15th and 16th will be phenomenal. matt: it's going to be amazing to watch -- at least it will be fascinating to watch, i don't know if "amazing" is the right

word for watching an ecb meeting. you pointed this out, as we see coronavirus infection start to explode in the core of europe, in the biggest economy in europe, the engine of europe's economy in germany, is christine lagarde going to have to rethink tapering of that bond buying program? jonathan: you don't enjoy those ecb presses? does that not do it for you? matt: no. i've gone to way too many. ever since the woman poured pink powder all over mario draghi -- jonathan: i remember. matt: they've increased security to the point where it is not fun. jonathan: i think it was confetti. 1.1280 nine on euro-dollar. euro weakness. good morning. romaine: whatever the ecb and

other central banks decide, investors have decided l to airlines setting up for a fourth straight day of declines. we've seen weakness all week long in travel stocks in the united states while the lockdown chatter is still over in europe. there is concerned it could feed into the u.s. markets. zoom, pellets on, netflix -- peloton, netflix all higher as people bet as we head deeper into the winter season we could be hunkering down. zoom shares up 2% on the day. got to applied material earnings. the ceo talking about supply chain issues and quantified the impact and said it held back sales by about $300 million. that is about a 5% hit to revenue. he says that will persist deeper into 2022. we heard from the ceo of micron

at the new economy forum who said he's seen as the supply chain issues start to ease and the light is at the end of the tunnel in the market for some of the memory chips micron specializes in. higher about 2%. foot locker shares down. comp sales were disappointing although we did see margin. far-fetched, we had the ceo who said there is a lot more foot traffic in the brick and mortar stores coming at the expense of some of the e-commerce companies, far-fetched one of them. earnings seemed to suggest that trend might be the guidance. those shares down about 22% in the premarket. jonathan: looking forward to "the close" later. matt miller, ryanair is down for

10 straight sessions. the european airlines have been sniffing this one out. matt: unbelievable. the biggest costs for them are fuel which had been on a tear, and labor which is hard to come by, especially at a low price. this covid increase that we've seen in germany and austria and the core of europe really not good for travel on ryanair. ryanair and easyjet, for those who aren't in europe, two of the most popular ways to travel around the e.u. jonathan: ryanair down. joining us is jim o'sullivan, arguably with the biggest call we've been talking about. we caught up with your colleague about it, waiting until december 2020 32 hike interest rates. you are at the very far end of the range of people we talked to. why can we wait that long?

jim: obviously, it's hard to be specific on exact timing but our point broadly is momentum will be down over the next year. if you extrapolate where we are, growth is strong, inflation is way too strong and if you extrapolate, the fed would have to tighten the key issue is what momentum will look like over the next year. we think despite the budget building and congress, that there will be significant fiscal drag in 2022. the budget deficit go from around 12% of gdp to around 5% in fiscal 2022. there are some offsets but we think the net will be significant downward momentum. it will look different as we get toward the middle of next year in terms of momentum and growth as well as inflation. we will see where we stand. they have a seven-month tapering that won't mind down until june.

-- wind down until june. we will see the middle of next year but we think momentum will be down between now and then. lisa: people have said it doesn't really matter how much inflation comes down next year. it will edify the fed's position. do you think that's true, or does it need to drop a certain amount by a certain date to support the fed approach? jim: meaningful slowing, the year-over-year numbers will still be quite strong. you will not drop out all these high numbers right away. the strong numbers jump out -- drop out and the 12 month numbers are elevated. do you have to get to 2% year-over-year, absolutely not that brings in the other part of the mandate. if you have enough slowing on --

there is a lot of debate right now about what is maximum employment. it is pretty strong but payro dm pre-covid levels. this will be an important debate over the next year. matt: i was going to ask you about that maybe there have been such structural changes that this is just the new normal. if you can't get employees through the door even if you are raising wages, and there are so many jobs out there than anyone could get one, how are we not at maximum employment already ocean arc -- employment already? jim: if you extrapolate current numbers, job openings, what the wage numbers are doing, on the surface, sure, it looks like maximum employment. everything is so distorted by covid. we had the delta wave over the last several months which clearly contributed to preventing the participation

rate from starting to improve despite the expiration of employment -- unemployment. we are still in the midst of the pandemic. we will see where we are in a year. most fed officials would say they would not be satisfied that this is the new normal in terms of the level of employment and maximum employment. it might take time and there will be lags, but they expect most of these people to come back, not all of them. matt: i thought most of them had done so well in the market that they stepped out, adieu. jim: the nature of those data is that people retire and under tire. -- unretire. we see people not coming back into the labor force after having retired so it is fair to assume the per dissipation rate will stay where it is.

we are expecting recovery. as the chairman would say, powell would be hopeful and would expect that most of these people can come back time. jonathan: lisa has been on top of this one this morning -- how much daylight is there between chairman powell and governor brainard? you've been waiting for the same decision as we have. how much daylight is between the two? jim: registry policies being more clearly different. monetary policy, not necessarily huge but i would say most people would say that maynard -- brainard is likely to be more dovish and have a different interpretation of maximum employment. powell is pretty dovish as well. jonathan: jim o'sullivan, you are confusing yourself. brainard is dovish, chairman powell is dovish.

how much daylight is there between them? lisa: what will be the difference in monetary policy, a lot of people say kind of unclear. they are taking a lax approach of how quickly they tighten. some say governor brainard will take a more aggressive approach when it comes to employment. jonathan: confirm ability, there might be a difference between the two. lisa: although you are getting more pushback from powell -- of powell and more acceptance of brainard. who has the bigger problem? jonathan: the republicans come over and vote for chairman powell. lisa: i think he widely is thought of as more confirmable. jonathan: ubs is a big call on the s&p 500 next year. getting through this morning into the weekend, down one quarter of 1% on the s&p 500, the small caps a struggle on the back of what is happening in the europe. you got a rally in the treasury

market, 1.5274 on the tens. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. kevin mccarthy called president biden agenda the most reckless heiress -- irresponsible spending in the history of the u.s., and his speech on the floor prevented the democrats from passing the legislation last night. mexico's president told president biden to reduce imports and loosen immigration restrictions to ease labor shortages. the mexican leader and canada's prime minister met at the white house and the first north american summit since before the trump era. trudeau pushed on a number of issues. he objects to subsidies for electric vehicles. bitcoin has fallen almost 20% from its record in less than two

weeks. the cryptocurrency is hovering around $57,000. some analysts say a shock pullback is normal after prices soared 40% in october, and a crypto crackdown in china. toyota will spend aliens of dollars on a factory plant -- billions of dollars on a factory plant in north carolina as part of the plan to ramp up output of electric goals in the u.s. toyota is expected to join forces with panasonic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> we do not take higher inflation lightly.

we are committed to ensuring that inflation stabilizes at our 2% target in the medium-term. today, inflation is largely being pushed up by the exceptional circumstances created by the pandemic. jonathan: problems in europe, christine lagarde, the president of the european central bank. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro together with matt miller. the trouble in europe, euro-dollar down to 1.2084. german bond yields are lower off of new restrictions in austria, back in lockdown, germany could be following. yields are lower on treasuries by six or seven basis points. that's a firmer curve. your two year yield and six basis points to about 44, 45 basis points this morning. lisa: how much is this the fed will be able to remain on hold because of europe and oil prices and perhaps some sort of

additional wave in the united states, hard to parse through the logic. jonathan: equity futures negative one third on the russell. small caps are down 1.4%. let's get over to our stoxx editor dave wilson for the performance not just this morning but on the year. dave: i took a run through the 11 major industry groups in the s&p 500 and something that jumped out at me is the contrast between real estate and utility. these are two groups you tend to think move together because they are interest rate sensitive and a lot of times that's true, certainly the last few years. this year, a different story. the s&p 500 real estate index is up something like 35%. utilities only higher by about 6% they are the worst performers out of the 11 main groups. you are looking at the biggest dap between the two -- gap between the two since 2010, at a

time when interest rates are front and center. jonathan: have you seen these moves in these airlines not just in the states, but in europe it is brutal and has been? dave: there is so much concern about how the latest wave of the coronavirus is playing out. are you going to see the easing of travel restrictions kind of moving the other direction? you can understand why investors are so focused on what's happening when it comes to the virus, and people's willingness to travel, especially as you get to where the holiday season which is one of the biggest periods of the year for the airline industry. jonathan: dave wilson on some of those names. iag down hard in today's session, parent company of british airways. we talked about the 10 day move but iag down almost 20% of the last 10 years. it has been rough and ugly.

matt: i am just throwing iag into a comp screen. i love the comp function on the bloomberg because it gives you a five-year look and you can compare stocks with the same measuring stick. over the last five years, ryanair has given an annual return of just about 2%, total return of 10% in a five-year period. iag has given you an annual loss of 10% over a five-year period. lufthansa with a loss of 7%. iag has been a serious loser, british airways and iberia. jonathan: let's bring in maria tadeo and had to brussels. fill us in, germany, austria, what's happening? maria: two things really changed the narrative in europe and one is that we are seeing a lockdown again in austria. we were told we were not going to see any lockdowns in europe

again, that the vaccination would prevent that, and we are going into one for 20 days. austria is saying once they are finished with lockdown they will make the vaccination compulsory. this is much more drastic than anything in europe until now and much more drastic than we expected from the government. it could really set a precedent for germany. infections are jumping and hospital admissions are jumping. the german health manager said something that changes the narrative in europe, we can no longer include a lockdown and the vaccine and booster may not be enough. a real break may mean more restrictions. lisa: matt miller was describing austria as a mountainous region where people don't see their neighbor. what is the end limitation process going to be for austria to get compliance with this compulsory vaccination mandate? maria: this is very difficult to do and to measure, but what we

see right now, there is a lockdown for unvaccinated people. you put police men and women to track people and ask for their documents. you could argue they will put into place a system online in which you will have to prove you've been vaccinated and the government will probably get on the phone and call people who are not registered, telling them starting in february 2022 they will have to get vaccinated, otherwise there will be fines. matt: i'm a huge fan of austria, love vienna where there are no mountains. i built a car that was -- i bought a car that was built in grot and i like to ski in -- but the european growth picture, it is germany. they are just bringing in a new regime. what can olaf scholz and his friends in the greens and fdp do about this? maria: he's the one that's going

to have to clean up this mess. angela merkel was told she was very lenient with prevention measures because she didn't want to spoil the election. nobody wanted to kill off the good vibe in the summer. that is the ramifications and repercussions of it. one thing that is different from olaf scholz and angela merkel, he said he will have to take measures that we've not seen yet in germany. whether he's alluding to a mandate for vaccination remains be seen, but he signaling he will be tough on these measures. jonathan: maria, looking very impressed with matt miller. two hours into a show if you have to apologize to a whole country, something's not done right. you understand that, right? matt: it's going to be difficult to enforce this across the entire nation because people are very private in certain pockets of austria. jonathan: i thought you said they don't see each other. matt: you could go a long time

without seeing your neighbors if you live in a mountainous region. can i back out of this somehow? jonathan: sure, take the camera off of matt and put it on me and lisa. clearly this is playing out in this market in a big way. lisa: i love how matt miller was saying some of my best friends are from austria. it is playing out in markets as people rethink how quickly we can come out of this. the air travel sector in europe was just coming out of this slump and the idea, how does the u.s. handle this? do we re-implement some of that? jonathan: this is why i enjoy radio and not tv, the awkwardness of being left on that shot just waiting for it to go away feeling like you have something to say. lisa: i think we should do that. jonathan: a second look. matt: i'm not downplaying the importance of austria. i have almost 9 million people, almost as many as new york. jonathan: matt miller, lisa

abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your equity market down 14 on the s&p, negative one third of 1%. treasures are rallying, yields lower by one basis point. the view from ubs next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is difficult to see how, at current levels, multiples expand further. >> i think some of the high valuations may be worth it in some cases. >> i think we come close to double digits. >> corporation fundamentals couldn't be better. >> you are looking at a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a little bit of risk aversion to end the week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa