tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 25, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST
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>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, i'm tom mackenzie. these are the top stories to set your agenda. traders weighing the risks after the latest feta minutes flat and the treasury yield curve and boost the dollar. germany's covid death toll passes 100,000 people as the incoming chancellor vows to tackle the latest surge.
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jp morgan in damage control. jamie dimon regrets his comments about china's communist party. happy thanksgiving to all of our american friends. let's check in on a terminal chart showing where the markets are pricing in rate hikes. a slightly more hawkish set of commentary out of the fomc minutes. the flattening of the yield curve, stronger u.s. dollar. the markets are now pricing in four rate hikes within the next 24 months. bear in mind we have heard from former fred president william dudley and lacquer, both seeing it between 3% to 4%. that is the cycle within an fomc considering the pace of inflation. data out yesterday pointing to ever higher inflation. a presuming consumer in the u.s.. let's check in on the markets across the asian space.
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relative optimism, gains of .2%. the future in europe. gains of .5% after ending in the green. looking past the lockdowns and additional measures to curb covid-19 across the euro. the u.s. is closed for trading today. brent, keeping an eye on this. the tussle between biden and the administration and opec-plus. .2%. the u.s. dollar at the highest level since around june of 2020. currently down, but the resilience around the dollar is certainly a consequence globally. sticking to the em space. flexibility was the buzz word at the last fed meeting. officials stressing they should be able to shift tapering, as well as timing of rate hikes if needed.
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many expecting elevated inflation to be more persistent. that as officials remain split on the key question, to hike in 2022 or not to hike? let's bring in andrea pop up, who joins us from our sydney studio. fed signaling fast to taper. quicker than markets expected. markets pricing in the first hike in june of 2022. what was the key take away from these minutes? >> that is right. it was flexibility. it was about being more nimble. the fed has come under some sort of criticism from the market that perhaps they are behind the curve. the markets have been pricing this in. what is going to happen over the next 24 months for interest rate increases. at the moment, what they are focused on is getting used two
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the idea that we have heard this in the market for quite a while. it is why you see this resilience in futures and in the markets here in asia. and why you have these tailwinds of liquidity. they are cooling down. at the same time, there is still ample liquidity out there. the commentators we have spoken to that have been on bloomberg television said rings will slow down. but at the same time, it is a fairly accommodative environment for risk assets. at the same time, they have run up very high. commodities, equities, cryptocurrencies have had a stellar year. perhaps they are due for a pause. just to see where things are going once this liquidity will be withdrawn. tom: meanwhile, another hike from the bank of korea. they are not waiting around.
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they are hiking for a second time. the commentary from the government seems to be less hawkish than some market participants expected. >> that is right. it was a little less hawkish. that is what you saw a jump in bond futures, a decline in yields in korea. but the government made the point that there is room for more interest rate increases as they get their target for inflation. but he refused to be drawn on the timing, which is what journalists were trying to pin him down on. so a more dovish message from the bank of korea. they did mention concerns about a resurgence in covid, the economic situation in korea. not as hawkish as the markets had expected, but in line with
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what we have seen from the new zealand central bank this week with their rate increase. tom: cross asset editor andrea public, thank you for the minutes and bank of korea. germany's latest covid search has taken the death toll past 100,000 since the start of the pandemic as the new prime minister prepares to -- the new chancellor prepares to succeed angela merkel. let's bring in maria. what is the latest situation? the numbers are grim. >> when you look at the numbers in germany, now passing another threshold when it comes to deaths. this wave is as bad as it has been for germany. it could potentially get uglier. the german government is using language never heard in this country before. by the end of the winter, you face a choice, either get your vaccine or you could be dead.
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it is that clear. whether or not it translates into first-time vaccinations remains to be seen. the data at this point, this is so important to highlight, it shows booster shots are getting traction. the problem is you need to narrow the gap between the first time vaccination and no vaccination. in terms of the politics, there is a government deal for the next chancellor. he gave a clear indication he now needs to deal with the pandemic heads on. there potentially will be a vaccine mandate for certain professions and jobs that would require that. and you could be heading into a period of more restrictions if the vaccination rate doesn't improve in the country? -- in the country. tom: maria will be back later to unpack the coalition and give more details. let's get the first word news. opec says the coordinated
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release of oil reserves by top consuming nations could massively swell the surplus in global markets. objections from the advisory body come one week before the group and its allies meet to decide whether to increase production. some opec-plus delegates indicated they could cancel an output hike scheduled for january if the market is overwhelmed. the u.k. will continue negotiating with the european union over northern ireland. it considers progress is being made. both sides have been trying to find a solution to the post-brexit problems facing northern ireland. david frost is pushing for a significant overhaul of the existing treaty while the eu is offering concessions within the framework of the existing deal. french telecoms company orange is hunting for a new leader after the ceo was found guilty of aiding and abetting the misuse of public funds. he resigned late wednesday,
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ending his 11 year run at the helm. they want more leadership by january 31 at the latest. he will keep running the company in the meantime. singapore and malaysia have agreed to reopen a causeway linking the countries, allowing for cross-border land travel for the first time since march of last year. vaccinated passengers will be allowed to transit on designated buses. some 300,000 people stream across each day, making it one of the busiest land borders. that is your bloomberg first word news. coming up on "daybreak: europe," we speak to the ceo of -- as they get ready for their first half results. catch our interview in about 20 minutes. and discussing the fed's tapering timeline and inflation with wealth management of asset allocation, to tell us where he
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tom: welcome back, this is "daybreak: europe." let's return to the central banks. the fed going for a faster taper. are central banks reassuring investors nervous about inflation? joining us is the head of asset allocation and macro research at -- what stood out for you from these fomc minutes? were you surprised the conversation has already started within the fed about the pace of paper in what it means bringing forward the rate hike cycle? >> yes, it is very quick for markets. as we are -- for the u.s.
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economy in 2022, we expect, as a result of it, inflationary pressure we are experiencing. we expect both a tapering by the fed. and on the other hand, interest rate hikes. to be precise, we expect three interest rate hikes in 2022. it is already priced in by markets. if you look at the futures, they are pricing close to three interest rate hikes. we are now probably aligned with market expectations. it is a little bit less aggressive at this stage compared to us. but we are convinced -- continuing to converge views regarding the attitude and base
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of interest rate by the fed in the months to come. especially in 2022. tom: three hikes in 2022 is your forecast. what does it mean for your positioning? >> regarding the positioning, if we are talking about equities to start, we are constructive. due to the support given by -- to the economic cycle. we are considering that despite these forecasts, in terms of tapering and interest rate hikes, the name of the game for banks is to preserve the economic cycle. especially real gdp growth, real economy growth. we consider growth should be
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positive, around 9% for the europe and u.s. equities. and as a result, we still have leeway to go further in equity markets. this is why we are rather constructive on equity markets for the months to come, and potentially to start 2022. tom: where are the corporate earnings vulnerabilities when you think about the lockdowns and rapid rate of covid-19 infections across europe? >> you mean in terms of -- covid due to the lockdown? tom: yes, exactly. >> of course, if we have new lockdown measures in a lot of countries, in europe, or the
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u.s., it could affect the earnings cycle. especially the earnings growth for 2022. the basic assumption we have, we are discussing covid in terms of impacts being behind us. a lot of governments in europe and the u.s. have not much leeway to develop measures, creating lockdowns, then affecting dramatically the economic activity. also because of the population now vaccinated much broadly than any time before. they lockdown will probably not be needed. tom: how does a view on rate
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hikes for 2022 inform your sector bias? is it in the mix when you look at higher rates? what do you do with technology? >> i would say two points. as you know, diversification is key. this is why you like to adopt a balanced approach within markets. i liquidity or -- to create a balanced approach. due to the risks and uncertainties, we have around us, including covid. diversification. second, due to the inflationary pressure, increasing the production costs. one of the key themes we save
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for this year, and probably in the next future, is pricing power. companies aiding pricing power are able to reflect on sets, rising into the setting prices. in that case, they will protect at a high level as we are in the corporate margins in the u.s., and on the upside trend in europe, the protection, preservation of these corporate margins are key for companies. and companies with the pricing power have an advantage compared to others. tom: the importance of considering pricing power when picking these stocks. what do you think is behind the underperformance some would point to when it comes to the yellow metal, gold?
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down 5% or 6% year to date at a time of almost unprecedented inflation. highest inflation in 30 years across most of these regions. why hasn't there been more of an uptick? >> probably due to two things. a certain usd. gold is pricing in the u.s.. strengthening u.s., the gold usually is weakening or remaining not as strong as it could be, considering inflationary pressures. so it is probably one explanation. the second explict a -- explanation is expectations remain low. the markets consider it, investors consider this reflationary pressure will stay
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with us for long. but only for temporary reasons due to bottleneck effects due to the supply chain production. and at a point of time later, in 2022, later in 22, these bottleneck effects should vanish. then inflationary pressure could go down from this perspective. this is another reason explaining why gold is so surprisingly weak. tom: i know you want to be adding gold, which is why i bought in that question. thank you for these points and getting us up to speed on how you are positioning as the fed and other central banks are just to the inflationary pressures.
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tom: happy thursday. i'm tom mackenzie in london. jamie dimon regrets saying his bank is likely to outlast china's communist party. in a statement, he was trying to emphasize the strength and longevity of the company. it is the latest in a string of provocative remarks he has been forced to walk back. david scanlon is our asia senior finance editor. it did not take very long for
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jamie dimon and the team to walk back these comments. what was your take and response? >> about 18 hours, to be exact. sometimes, humor just doesn't travel, or gets lost in translation. he was trying to show the resilience and strength of his great u.s. bank, around for 100 years. it was also clearly seen as a shot at the communist party. and you know you don't joke about the communist party within china. so advisors, as we have reported -- maybe not quite an apology, but regretting that those were not appropriate comments to be making about a government or party. tom: so far, it seems the reaction in china has either been nonexistent or very muted. what is the potential fallout
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for jp morgan and its business that it has been trying to aggressively expand in mainland china? >> this is big time -- this is a big time for jp morgan. the market has really only just started to open up. it just got the approval to buy securities business. many are trying to do the same. these are very early days for a potentially massive expansion to china. you could be on the wrong side of the communist party. you need approval for everything in china. expand a new business, launch a new product, very closely tied to the communist party. not the kind of signal jp morgan wants to send right now. tom: david scanlon, thank you for giving us the potential implications for jp morgan, jamie dimon, and team walking back those comments weighing out
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their business. some breaking lines in terms of earnings. we speak to the ceo of remy cointreau in the next five or six minutes. there earnings have come at operating income. 212 million euros first half operating income. beating estimates of 150 5 million. a clear beat in terms of operating income. 200 12 million versus 155 million euros. margins looking healthy. first half operating margins of 33% versus 24.7%. a growth in margins. it is a beat on the estimates for remy cointreau. we will be speaking to the ceo in the next five minutes or so. they've also raised therefore your guidance. the for your guidance has been raised. erik ballard in the next four
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minutes. let's check in on the markets. looks like you will get a healthy bump for european futures. european markets up .5%. futures are pointing higher in the u.k., going to .3%. in germany, despite what we see in terms of the death rate and officials weighing out additional restrictive measures to curve the spread of the virus. looking through that for the moment. wall street ending in the green. it is thanksgiving. no equities trading stateside. futures in the u.s. putting up .3%. mainland china, down about .3%. across the broader asian space, gains of .2%. brent is also above $82 a barrel. that is the dollar flat. 20 more ahead. this is -- plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: good morning from bloomberg 's european headquarters in london. i'm tom mackenzie. these are the stories that set your agenda. traders weighing the risk of faster tapering after the latest fled minutes flat and the treasury yield curve and boost the dollar. germany's death toll passes 100,000 people as incoming chancellor vows to tackle the latest surge.
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jp morgan in damage control. jamie dimon regrets his comments about china's communist party. the markets looking through what was widely seen as slightly more hawkish minutes from the fomc and a discussion about the pace of taper. the markets in the u.s. closed to the up marginally. closed for the thanksgiving holiday. futures in europe are pointing up by about .5%. looking through the implications of the spread of covid-19 across the euro zone. brent gaining almost .2%. 24 hours or so after the news the u.s. would release reserves in coordination with india, south korea, the u.k., and china. the dollar index at highs last seen in june and july of 2020. steam coming off of the top of the dollar, despite the fact you
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have slightly more hawkish minutes. you also have the inflationary picture underscored. also the resilience of the consumer. all of that coming out in a day lose of data stateside. we do have earnings from one of the big drinks makers in europe. remy cointreau posting stellar results in its last quarter, beating analyst estimates by a pretty wide margin. let's bring in the ceo for an exclusive interview. thank you for joining us. congratulations on the results. margins have expanded and you have beaten revenues versus estimates. what were the key takeaways as to how this positions the business going forward? >> it is very exciting. it shows there are two very strong trends emerging that will
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last that covid accelerated, particularly to the eye and -- high-end spirits. the upgrade, people drinking less and better. and consumption at home. including cocktails, which is booming of trade a business. as opposed to un-trade, which has been open. but we see the off. trade business retail and commerce. . tom: does it mean the lockdowns and the concern we see around the spread of covid-19 around the euro zone is a concern you don't have to factor in at this point? it is something that will have to be a catalyst for further sales for the business? >> it is not that -- 30% of our business was made with trade. the potential closer is it something we are monitoring. it is showing very strong resilience. particularly on the high-end. on top of that, things to our
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reserves, it gives us the opportunity to invest even more in the future of our brand, and increase more of this resilience as we improve the awareness and durability of our brands. tom: were the expansion plans of the business derailed by the pandemic? >> i would not say derailed. somehow, we have been claiming that we believe in this trend of drinking less and better. i would say it has accelerated the trend. as far as the challenge of how to capture this opportunity, you can see categories, like cognac, which are growing fast. it is a great opportunity for us. here, i would not say covid has derailed, i think it has reinforced our strong belief in the future of high-end spirits. the matter is to be exceptional brands that call for high prices because of all of the content we put into it.
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it is not something you can invent overnight. we are privileged to inherit from brands that are centuries old. and we should thank previous generations for the work that was done and allows us to pick up this trend. tom: you talked about the excellent momentum in the u.s. and china. key markets for the business. what new markets are you looking to push into? what are the priority markets? >> it is interesting to see beyond china and the u.s., which are the two key markets, to see europe coming back very strongly. we enjoyed a 53% growth in europe or the -- over the first semester. not only the u.k. and the rise of e-commerce. we are looking at the u.k. as a very interesting and attractive market. if you look more long-term, russia, already a substantial market. more long-term, africa is also a region of interest. it has been severely impacted
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because of on trade. but in the long run, there is great potential. tom: interesting. back to the importance of the chinese market. competitors are building out whiskey brands in the market. is it a route you can go down? >> we have whiskey, as well. we have a brand that owns a whiskey elected best whiskey of the year. as well as what launched last week. the first of scotch whiskey. so we do have weapons to address the chinese market. we have seen our whiskey effective in the u.s. and china. you are right to point out it is an opportunity for us. really going to drive the business in china. tom: what are the inflationary
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impacts you are seeing? what is your view as to how long and how sustained inflationary impacts will be? >> inflation is a fact. even mutual alcohol today, but it has increased a lot. it is not new for us. we are in a business where demand is stronger than the offer. we see the price increases earlier than this. i think it will last for the coming year. difficult to project my self further. it is not so impactful this year as we have secured a lot of contracts for the whole year. it will impact us next year. at the same time, we believe it
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is manageable. when you are on the high-end, people are sensitive to prices. there are things we can do on prices. it is a rarity. tom: we saw that the margins increased to 33%. does it tell us you are passing that cost on? the input cost to the consumer? can you conserve your margins? >> we do not necessarily work our pricing directly into the inflation. it does have an impact. but it is more for the effectiveness of our brand. so we have a price positioning plan for the years to come that is not purely related to inflation. of course, the price increases we have planned this year, which are driven by these, have compensate inflation.
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but again, it is driven by many more factors than pure inflation. and the growth of the margin, mostly from the growth of our sales and overheads. while we have been spending more on communication. it is not a gross margin inflation related issue. in the context of very strong increases. tom: the importance of cost control. what about supply chains? any evidence they are easing? how long will constraints be with you? >> i would say it is easing in the sense it is easier than last summer where we had to catch up our channels. anticipated very difficult. now it is not particularly easing from a macro perspective. we see it probably until 2023. it has a huge impact on the cost
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of logistics. at the scale of our gross margin, it is not so impactful. it is a sharp increase. it will remain high. as far as the impact, probably more. so we will see our sales related to the shipments. i would say it is probably more critical. we don't like to have the shelves empty. tom: when you look across the sector, do you see further consolidation? if so, will remy cointreau be looking at acquisitions in the next 12 to 24 months? >> if you asked me a year ago, i would have said consolidation. but we can tell you there might be. it will not be cheap. are we looking at growth and consolidation on all sides? the answer is yes, but let's say
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not before one or two years. we are undergoing a very strong transformation of the group to adapt to the world changing around us, as well as meeting strategy objectives. to be ready for further acquisitions. we are looking at opportunities. should a great opportunity arise, we will be there. tom: looking for opportunities. it is holiday season. thanksgiving in the u.s. we are looking ahead to christmas. what is demand over the holiday season looking like? >> if you look at the u.s., it is very steady. i would say in europe, it depends on the countries, related to whether they are consigned. in china, we are enjoying it, despite the challenging covid environment. confidence in our ability, but
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to keep growing in the coming months. this holiday season is -- for us, particularly in that part of the world. chinese new year, the moment of truth. tom: the moment of truth. thank you so much. ceo of remy cointreau. let's get the first word news. the u.k. will continue negotiating with the european union over northern ireland. it considers progress is being made. both sides trying to find a solution to the post-brexit problem. david frost is pushing for an overhaul of the existing treaty. the eu is offering concessions within the framework of the existing the. orange is hunting for a new leader after the ceo was found guilty of aiding and abetting the misuse of public funds.
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he resigned late wednesday, ending his 11 year run at the helm. orange's board wants new leadership by january 31. he will keep running the company in the meantime. european governments debating new measures to curb covid resurgence while avoiding curfews and lockdowns. germany may consider vaccine mandates for people who work with vulnerable groups. denmark is seeing making masks mandatory on public transport. the eu delayed covid travel guidelines as it waits for data on the efficacy of different vaccines. that is your bloomberg first word news. coming up, a coalition deal to become the next german chancellor. as europe's largest economy faces a surging covid outbreak. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. after nearly two months of negotiations, the next german chancellor has sealed the coalition deal as the economy faces a surging covid outbreak. at a press conference to another deal between his centerleft social democrats and the progress this -- the pro business free democrats, he positioned germany as the claimant leader to steer it through the pandemic. >> day after day, new records are being set in terms of the number of infections. even though many cases have become much milder as a result of vaccinations, more and more infected people are being admitted to hospital in some regions. intensive care units are reaching the limits of capacity in some places. the situation is serious. tom: let's bring in maria tadeo.
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what were the highlights of the bill? what stood out to you? >> what stood out for me, 177 pages of this government deal includes -- yesterday afternoon, we were busy looking at the different sections. overall, or really stuck out to me was it is a real balancing act between the three parties joining in this coalition. this is an unprecedented exercise for german politics. you have social measures of the spd for all of them. it was important to really establish the party as a party of the left. it is your traditional social democracy. time ambitions. especially decarbonizing the planet. that featured heavily. the promise from the liberals to not increase taxes. that also features prominently. the other thing i would say is important is the commitment to
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investing more in the country. we know the criticism of germany. a very sophisticated advanced economy. in many ways stuck in the past. it has not been able to make the leap forward when it comes to technology and the digital space in the country. when this plan was presented, a lot of attention focused on the pandemic. it seems he wants to make it his number one priority. you have to deal with the pandemic. tom: what are the implications for the german economy? >> in terms of what this means for the german economy, that is the question. look at it in two different ways. there will be an increase in the minimum wage to 12 euros. that was something he said in the campaign that needs to feature prominently. there is also the need for housing. it is a delicate issue in germany. it makes a real debate among people. you have to look at the european
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aspect of it. the features in this agreement. but there's a big pledge to go for public investment. it also says they have to feature more prominently in a bigger industrial european policy. two different ways. some analysts said it is a lot less hawkish. especially with kristin leonard at the finance ministry. tom: interesting. maria tadeo on the ground in frankfurt. coming up a look at supply chains ahead of the busy holiday season in the u.s.. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the global supply chain crunch and the world's largest, in terms of this story, largest farm equipment maker surging after it gave an outlook global supply chain delays and labor woes will not significantly dent profits. amazon is prepared to sacrifice profits this quarter for logistical workarounds to get products to consumers on time. the 4 billion-dollar effort involves dispatching half-empty drugs and bumping pay for seasonal workers. it is a chance to expand advantage over rivals. in china, the government's extreme covid zero policy is standing in the way of a full recovery for the shipping industry and could prolong the crisis. measures involve a seven-week quarantine for returning chinese seafarers. and a two week wait for incoming
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vessels that refreshed their crews. today is thanksgiving in the u.s. households will face a much more expensive dinner. this is the link from supply chains to your plate. all helping to drive prices up. consumers probably bracing more of the same for the holiday season. ed ludlow is in studio tracking the numbers and joins us for the latest. it is thanksgiving, we will be celebrating thanksgiving in some way today or the weekend, talk about the price inflation around turkey and what it means about the broader inflationary picture? >> there is nothing that typifies the global inflation or story like turkey. frankly, it will be 20% to 24% more expensive. the reason it is a good example is it has been subject to the constraints we have talked about for weeks. a big labor shortage for the
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processing of these meats, they have to tap into frozen inventories. in october, retailers panicked saying we have frozen turkeys, let's get them into the stores because we cannot get our hands on the fresh product. agriculture had a year where the weather has been poor in a number of markets. fertilizer prices rising heavily. that leads to turkey because of the grain pricing. look at the rest of the thanksgiving table, those prices are rising. consumer demand is robust. it into double-digit inflation, it is a worry. >> 20% clearly eclipsing wage gains in the u.s. a confluence of events. do we have a sense of how sustained it will be? will it be a factor when it comes to dining out and eating products when we look at 2022? will it be a one-off year when it comes to turkey? >> the fed ditched the word transitory.
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we were wondering for some time whether inflation is transitory. central banks in different jurisdictions. in europe, there is a belief inflation fades into the first half of next year. it comes back to supply chain constraints. the fantastic constraint indicator. in the u.s., there were signs things were improving. bottlenecks were ongoing because corporates and state and federal authorities would not throw money at it and apply pressure to fix things. in europe, it is a slightly different story. not necessarily the case they are anything. tom: in the u.k. come of brexit challenges have added to all of this. but also workers across a number of sectors and energy markets. labor shortages, everything else. the ports, all of that congestion. what is the readthrough? >> for corporate america and corporate europe, you have a choice. higher input costs passed on to the consumers, or you don't.
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in food pricing, in america, we have seen consecutive waves of price gains. retailers, food retailers have not been afraid to do that. wall street and european investors have limited patient for that. so the question going into the next couple of quarters of earnings is if consumer demand is so robust and there is a question in europe, why don't we pass those costs onto the consumers? that is the psychology of wall street right now. it is looking at fading or improving supply chain picture, but once a profit. tom: balance sheets are resilient stateside. at least for now. ed ludlow, thank you. tapping into supply chains and what it means for your thanksgiving dinner. we are looking outlines from the french, saying the u.k. must do more to help prevent human
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>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." i'm francine lacqua. mark cudmore joins us with the action. the cash trade is less than an hour away. taper talk. the latest fed minutes show officials are open to removing policies up or at a faster pace to rein in inflation, even as price pleasure -- price pressure is shown to ex
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