prevail. supply demand prevails. >> it is hard for the economy -- fx the fed is going to have to make some hard decisions based on data. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> it is revenge of a pandemic that will not go away. from new york city and london, this is bloomberg surveillance. tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom and john are both off, off together. we have kailey leinz and anna edwards joining us this hour, the hour after on a morning that is dramatic. this is supposed to be a sleepy day. it is not a sleepy day. a lot of it is centered in europe. anna: absolutely. welcome back from thanksgiving. we interrupt your thanksgiving to bring you another variant from south africa.

that is what the market is dealing with. european equity markets moving to the downside. we are seeing real weakness, weakness in the places you would expect. travel and leisure stocks responding because of these bands on flights we are seeing from southern africa. it does go further than that. we are seeing response in the banking sector. we will get to some of those market moves. lisa: coming in, some of the responses seem logical. some not as much. why is it that everyone is bring together the idea of reserve being on hold longer than expected? kailey: i think it raises the question of what the pulling forward of expectations for a fed left off undone, it is a lot of uncertainty. it is quite a week. we are coming off of a truckload of economic data on wednesday that showed the pricing pressure evident in this economy, the fed tightening more quickly. does a variant like this give

the fed cover to move more slowly? that is what the market has to reevaluate. lisa: who spokesman says the variant was first identified on november 11, saying it is outstanding how fast the variant was identified. this speaks to the speed with which people are trying to get on top of this, identify it, get booster shots. looking forward, when you look at the travel restrictions in europe, how much to the moves in the travel sector seem logical versus a knee-jerk reaction to a very different circumstance from march 2020? anna: yes, this is one of the sectors that cannot adapt quite so much. if you are a retailer, you might not sell bricks and mortar, but you can ramp up online and cope that way. that is how some economies are more cushioned from these kinds of experiences. if you are travel and leisure, if you do cruises around the world, fewer people are going to want to get into those. that is where you have problems.

from the u.k. as well, this is where we are going to go, how far has this already spread? we are waiting to find out a lot of crucial details. a lot of uncertainty, how transmittable is it. a lot of things we don't know about how it interacts with the vaccine. we are going to start to get into a conversation about where is this virus already. we have seen these barriers for travel. the u.k. saying they have not detected any cases of the new covid variant in the u.k.. if it is in hong kong, israel, and another -- a number of countries, it must be in other places as well. lisa: let's run you through the data. everyone is waiting for the open. everyone is on tenterhooks, rushing to get back into the office post-thanksgiving, people hoping for a sleepy moment. not so much. you can see s&p tumbling nearly 2%. at one point 8%. the u.s. strengthened purses

dollar -- versus dollar. this speaks to the uncertainty of inflation, tumbling 11 basis points, 1.52%, a move in the two-year. this idea that perhaps oil prices coming off, and you are seeing them plunge the most since july. anna, you are going to go through the european numbers. it does raise a question of how much it will take for central bankers to move away from expectations that have gotten for a more tightening cycle. anna: absolutely. the european question was already more complicated. the delta variant was back with a vengeance. we were already dealing with new lockdown's coming through in austria, the possibility in germany, and the possibility in belgium. that is the background story, already looking complicated for european monetary authorities. you add in these sector complexities.

getting out of stocks into the haven of the bond markets, the 10-year german bund and other peripheral bond products. getting more exposure to gold, up 1.2% on the gold price. it was interesting to see we saw gold respond this way. there are some things that are little complex. you pointed out the fact we are seeing dollars selling and euro buying. it is seen as a haven. in the early days of the pandemic, there was time when there was gold selling because people were selling what they could and not necessarily what they wanted to. kailey: it does not feel like the same liquidity crunch. let's get right to it. for decades, mark chandler has been in the market. he has been watching the swings in the currency and beyond. our lack of understanding right now in markets in terms of the

macro indications. mark chandler joining us now. what is your first take on what is going on in markets this morning? mark: thanks a lot. this is a very troubling situation. the pandemic really was not over yet. we have seen cases in europe and germany reporting record cases before this new variant. it was a tricky situation. to your point, i think part of the reaction of the foreign exchange market is not so much a flight to safety, which is the euro and swiss franc gaining against the u.s. dollar. these currencies are used to purchase equities. as the equities go south, people have to buy back those funding currencies. earlier, dollar-yen had been

trading at a multiyear high. as this news broke, you could see what happened with dollar yen, complete reversal. i think the market's right to assume that may affect fed policy. remember where we were going. the market had been anticipating the fed to taper quicker, to allow the possibility to raise rates in the first part, q2 of next year. this potentially has to boost chances that the market has to reconsider this. i think this is a huge reality. basis point decline in the june fed funds futures 14 basis points in next december. >> it is interesting timing because just yesterday goldman sachs put out a note saying the fed is going to taper at twice the rate, and it is going to

lift off in june. do you think that move would be too early? marc: i have been in that camp since i saw that first bpi print on november 10 when we were above 10%. i thought the fed would have to double the pace of tapering. i think we need to have better clarification. we will get that in the next couple of weeks with this new variant. i think the market is right to pull back a little bit. it should be a 100% chance of something taking place. i think the market is pulling back, waiting for these development. this is a big shock to the market. the amount of people looking beyond the volume risk a bit too early, talking record earnings, reopening of the economy. this is a shock the market has to deal with. anna: is there a danger that these responded -- given the

lack of certainty. you have got to come together to the point where you discover a new variant of the virus in southern africa and the fed does not tighten policy as quickly as expected. are we a little premature in this thinking? marc: it is an interesting angle. we do not live in a world of definites, of absolutes. it is a probabilistic world. i would look at how to interpret the fed funds futures market, what are the odds priced in? the direction goldman sachs and myself was looking at earlier, markets are saying the odds are not quite as great. i think there is a lot of conditionality in this. we have known for a long time that we cannot be safe until there is herd immunity through

the vaccine. even in the u.s., we are looking at less than 60% vaccination rate. some countries in europe have a higher vaccination rate. huge pockets like lower saxony in germany have a lower vaccination rate than we do in the u.s., so these pockets become more vulnerable. as we do not address it, i am no scientist, but the virus mutates. till we can protect everybody, nobody is protected. >> marc chandler, thank you for being with us on this post thanksgiving data dump. thank you. i want to go to what you are saying, goldman sachs, this terrible timing, it was very likely the fed would accelerate their taper, end at some point in march and have two or three rate hikes next year. kailey: thanksgiving day can

make quite a difference. oldman published that note after the data we got wednesday. the fed's preferred inflation gauge showed the pricing pressure in the economy. you can have the virus rear its head again. it underscores the fed's dilemma. you have to deal with this higher inflation. you have to consider that the labor market is not back to where the fed wanted to be. there is concern about growth. lisa: you have officials out of the u.k. saying there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the new covid variant. this is the key. we do not understand how much it can evade the natural immunity from prior infection and immunity from the vaccines. we are looking at a very risk off field. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ g surveillance. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i am ritika gupta. the new covid-19 strain raises concerns about outlook for demand. production policy for january. the group has been under pressure from the u.s. and other consuming nations to tax strategic stockpiles to tame rising energy prices. the list of countries banning flights from south africa is growing over worries about a new covid-19 variant. the u.k. requiring travelers to quarantine in hotels upon arrival. scientists trying to discover whether the new variant is more transmissible. hong kong has confirmed two new cases of the variant in travelers. over security fears. tech related ride-hailer taken off the new york stock exchange because it is concerned about leaking sensitive data. precise details of the delisting

over -- both under consideration. in russia, president vladimir putin does not want to start another war in the ukraine but would fight if necessary to stop the increasing expansion of nato. people close to leadership say any attempt to occupy large amounts of ukrainian territory will face opposition and potentially crippling sanctions from the west. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> nobody has an answer as to whether there will be newer

variants, particularly in a contest where vaccines are not universally available, particularly on the african continent, but elsewhere as well. the vaccine divide has a major impact on these issues as we go on. >> that was robin gordon, south africa minister for public enterprises talking about the new covid variant. it is roiling markets now as people question how severe it is and how much it can evade natural immunity as well as from the pharmaceuticals. what we are looking at is read across the board, typical risk off trade. s&p futures down, off earlier close. the euro gaining touch versus the dollar after it hit the lowest in more than a year over the pre-thanksgiving holiday. i was going to say last week because that is what it feels like.

10-year yield coming in dramatically, 11 basis points, particularly on the front and as people rerate for rate hike. the tumble in crude values down 6.7%. the idea of potentially less travel as new travel bans get implement it. we are getting over in europe is the secretary for state for health and social care for the united kingdom coming out and saying the u.k. will change covid rules if required, but right now they are sticking with the pandemic plan, still talking about how much uncertainty there is around this new variant, also emphasizing vaccinations. when it comes to vaccines, there is no one who understands them better than sam. we are so lucky to have him with us at bloomberg, focused on the pharmaceutical company. we are seeing a huge surge in

the shares of pfizer and moderna as people question what this means in terms of additional pharmaceutical remedies. pfizer up more than 5%. moderna surging 8% premarket. what is your view on how serious this new variant is? sam: thanks for having me on. i think if we look at the various you tatian's -- various mutations this variant has, it is worrying people. it is in all the areas you wish you did not see mutations in, the way it binds to human cells, the way it interacts with antibodies, be it vaccine or preventive antibodies. also it has got mutations in other areas which have been associated with better infectivity and fitness and ability to evade the immune

system. all of that is what is worrying the scientific community. lisa: how quickly can the scientific community respond to this with potentially boosters? sam: i think tweet antivirals are much -- to work on. i think there is not any idea to think the antivirals at the moment will not work. time will tell. there's only one mutation in the area for which the pfizer drug interacts. that hopefully means it will continue to work. as far as the vaccines, the number out there with regards to the mrna vaccines is about 100 days to go from a new sequence to a vaccine ready to be tested. they need to figure out how much testing they want to do on those new variant vaccines.

what do we know about how transmissible this virus is? we have some early information around transmission. what can you tell us? i am looking at data coming out of this, the johannesburg area suggesting 90% of the cases on wednesday out of a particular province were of this variant. does that tell you anything? was that going up directly against delta, and we do not know. sam: we have to wait and see. the data is so fresh. relative to the per capita discounts would have in europe, it is possible a lot of this is driven by super-spreader events or a founder event, which is what it is called in the world of virology. it is possible. it is also possible that it is

more transmissible than delta. we have to wait. we cannot rush this analysis. >> sam, anna and i were speaking to a molecular epidemiologist who said this large extent was inevitable given the vaccination rate in places like africa remained lower than that in the west, and he gives the virus more room to mutate. is this going to continue to happen repeatedly until the vaccination rate is higher? sam: that is a hypothesis that is absolutely solid. i would not argue with that. it appears that it is possible that this kind of level of mutation rate has happened in immunocompromised subjects, which would not respond to vaccines that well anyway. if you have an hiv patient, and south africa does have a heavy burden that it suffers from hiv, those subjects can have a very

long duration infection, which allows the virus to experiment a lot. it finds all these mutations. that is more likely to be the expectation -- explain nation. we cannot ignore the fact that we need more vaccines in africa. >> we are running out of time. when can we be done with the coronavirus? is there going to be a time we can move out of the pandemic era? sam: people have tried to call this an end, to just move on. this virus is new. it is trying out all kinds of mutational space. there is no intelligence in it. we still have some more time to go. >> that is not what i want to hear. we appreciate your insights. i hope you are wrong. i hope we get rid of it by next year. i have got to say, kaylee, the idea of trying to be more patient and waiting for people to gather is not what people want to hear, which is why they

are ignoring it and going together in big stadiums. i think about michigan and detroit, how there are big events being held even though the case numbers are surging. kailey: that is the case in the u.s. it is a different story in europe, where you are seeing restrictions, places going back into lockdown measures. i'm not sure there is the political appetite for that in the u.s., even though surges may be coming. it is about the policy response. on the policy side, i feel things may stay loose. lisa: that speaks to what we were hearing from the health minister in the united kingdom, perhaps not having a knee-jerk reaction. we have in the u.k. block travel from those southern african countries. there has been that kind of knee-jerk response. no stepping up of the covid alert levels. the delta variant basically

canceled christmas in the u.k. last year. lisa: such a cheery friday morning. everyone should be out there shopping. we are talking how never this pandemic is going to go away. at least the next couple of years. s&p. 1.6%. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan ferro and tom keene both off. lucky to have kailey leinz and anna edwards in the seat with me today. we would like it to be boring. it is not boring. it is risk off. it is the recurrence of concerns about the potential resurgence of a new variation on the coronavirus. we do not know that much about it. this is the issue. we do not know how quickly it spreads. we do not know how much it can evade the immunity conferred by vaccines and prior infection. when we take a look at the biology of the virus, you can see it has the markers of potentially being different enough from prior iterations of this virus that it may have some of those characteristics.

s&p futures down 1.7%. you are seeing the euro strengthened, which is the audit move out. the yen surging the most going back to 2020. 10-year yields, you are seeing yields going lower, price higher. the flight to safety very much on. 12 basis points lower on the 10-year. two-year yields also tumbling. 15 basis point move downward, two-year yield 0.49. people rethink expectations. goldman sachs bringing forward their expectation for rate hike and accelerated taper by the federal reserve, suddenly shattered today. anna: you would think as we were talking about with marc chandler that we would have to join a lot of dots to get from a new virus variant to so quickly changing our thinking on whether the fed is going to move on interest rates. we live in a probabilistic

world. that means we are risk off in europe, down by 2.5%. a move in the bond market. that is all that green. we are going to that perceived safe haven of the bond space. gold also acting as a haven. that euro move stands out as being a little strange. we are seeing 0.75% higher on the euro. maybe it is buying back some of those funding currencies, adding to the readjustment markets having to go through today. lisa: it makes you wonder how much this ends up being a thin market story as traders rushed back to the office to deal with the news. we should have been talking about shopping because that is what happens on black friday. today is black friday. we are going to talk about shopping. it is relevant to the entire picture. joe, so glad to have you. assistant research director.

when we look at the shopping scenario, tying it into the news of the morning, how much have we seen a return to stores, and how much are people accustomed to shopping online? it is safer, easier. joe: the few stores that were open this morning at 5:00 i am -- 5:00 a.m., it was not a mad rush to get in the stores. people are shopping more online these days. that is going to be the case. if you really want to get something, you can get it in advance. people probably did some shopping yesterday online. we are hearing this weekend should be a good weekend from a footfall perspective as people want to get into the stores. i know the new variant of covid is a little scary. we have not heard of it here in the u.s. i don't think it will impact this weekend. it could have an impact as you get deeper into the holiday season. >> there has been a shift not

just in where people shop but when they shot. black friday used to be the time when everybody would go to the stores. we are seeing less shopping than previously expected online heading into the black friday holiday. this is not because people are not buying a lot of stuff, they are. they are spreading it out over a larger time. how much is that the new normal? joe: we think this is the new normal, which makes it difficult for analysts like myself to go into a store today and try to make some assessment, it was a good black friday, bad black friday. so much is online. a lot is going to happen after. i think the one big difference is because inventory is so tight, and the supply chain constraints, people are buying earlier. >> inventory is really tight. there is not necessarily all the goods people want to buy available. does that mean you are not going

to get your traditional big bargain black friday discounts? joe: that is a terrific observation. you are not getting what you have seen in years past. last year was ok. people a little more focused on full price. this year, we are seeing a lot more pricing closer to the full price. the discounts are not as steep. we are seeing 20% to 30% for most stores. some will be deeper. i think i saw some signs at the gap for 40% off. generally speaking, there were not many deals to be had that were screaming at you this morning. >> you mentioned the gap, which reported results earlier this week, and it flagged inventory as a problem because of supply chain issues. do you expect some retailers will not have the inventory this holiday season? joe: i think there are some that will be tight. for the most part, we got through this third quarter

earnings season, and the inventory position for most retailers was pretty good. it was better than a lot of us expected. still not great heading into the holiday season, but there is this fear there may not be that second wave of inventory coming in. it could be tight as you get deeper into the season. i think we are going to see some pressure on inventory. it will mean prices will be closer to full price as opposed to steep discounts. anna: i am already running behind. i/o somebody my family a gift from last holiday. i am already in trouble. in terms of availability, the big discounts that are going to get people to the door, or is it about the availability? if i knew a certain store had plenty of a thing that is popular, would that be the thing that this year gets me to show up on the doorstep rather than the prices? consumers have showed they are

willing to pay for the stuff they want. it is getting their hands on it that is difficult. joe: that is a great observation. people will want to get the item that they want. we are seeing that they will go to a store if need be to get that item. i don't think it is the discount. i think it is much more item driven. you see people wanting that special toy or electronics item. whatever is popular, it has been tough to get. people will go wherever they need to to get it to satisfy that demand. anna: are retailers falling into two camps, the ones that have the pricing power and the ones that operate in the field that they do not? joe: we believe that. those with the inventory and pricing power are likely to be the winners, walmart, target, costco, amazon. we think those will be some of the big winners this holiday season, given that they have

inventory. they have the best pricing. they have the broad base of items across categories people want to shop for. we are optimistic about those guys. >> if we see a resurgence in new cases of covid, i hate that i am saying this, but if we see this new variant take hold and create a prolonged feeling of the pandemic, again, i hate i am saying this, to expect an additional -- do we expect an additional consolidation of the big players because of their power to negotiate independently with particular nations? joe: we think we are already starting to see it. the market share gains for some of those big box guys, walmart and target, costco, where they were able to get the products they need, able to negotiate with shipping partners and do it

on their own. you are right. they are getting with they need. they are consolidating that inventory. they have the best prices out there so they can be competitive in this environment. it has been much more challenging for the smaller retailers to deal with this environment. if there is another flareup in the pandemic in the u.s., fourth wave or something, i think we will see similar behaviors. that is part of why we have seen walmart and target, the grocers are holding up better than people thought they would. we thought there would be a much bigger reversion to the mean, and it has not been. we have elevated the level of sales. >> joe feldman, thank you for being with us. we are seeing amazon down less, down just 0.3% in premarket trading even though you are seeing the nasdaq down more than 1%. in terms of smaller companies

and how much they are getting crushed, futures down almost 4%, crushing as people take a look at the prospect for smaller companies. this has been what i have noticed, a complete retracement in a lot of expectations in the bond market. kailey: a lot of expectations when it comes to fed policy. those bets have been pulled forward to mid next year and now reversing, going in another direction. now lift off has been pushed to june. the second 25 basis point that the market thought would come in mid-2022 has been pushed to 2023. a reversal from earlier this week. lisa: there is a question of the unreliable boyfriend, the idea of the bank of england coming in and disappointing markets, saying conditions are basically the same for a rate hike in december. could they potentially follow what the market is expecting in the u.s. and say this is another

slew of uncertainty, we will hold off? anna: life just got more complicated. we heard this week from andrew bailey, he emphasizes the inflation threat, but he was emphasizing the downside risk that another virus variant complicated the u.s. -- the u.k. fight against covid-19. you mentioned the move in amazon. we see that reflected in europe. all of the stay at home place, food delivery businesses are doing comparatively well. >> if you take a look at zoom video communications, it is up more than 9%. i guess everyone recommitted to zooming for the rest of their life. let's hope that is not the case. it is nice to see people in person. coming up, we will get more detail when it comes to the virus. we will have andrew from john hopkins university bloomberg school of public health. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: global health officials say it could take several weeks to determine how dangerous a new coronavirus variant is. scientists are holding a special meeting today to discuss a new variant they say was first identified november 11. the variant has caused stockmarkets to swoon and caused the european union to recommend a pause in flights to south africa. in person shopping for black friday, but the new coronavirus variant adding to a long list of concerns facing the retail industry. analyst say details are shaping up to be disappointing. tightening inventories and rising inflation. germany's new government plans to channel 60 billion euros into a fund to finance its climate goals. the money will be earmarked in a supplementary budget. the new initiation has made a

pledge to zero carbon emissions by 2045 and end coal use by 2030. helping its head to rebuild a team as he increases focus on serving the very rich, plans to service clients who do not have at least $10 million to invest. he has created several dust has recruited several senior executives from competition. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." you are looking live at the principal room. coming up later, former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers at 11:30 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. >> this variant b.1.1.529 was

reported at a remarkable speed. the first sequence was detected the 11th of november. detection is in place and working. >> that was the spokesman and communication officer for the who speaking about this latest b.1.1.529 virus. it does not yet have a delta or gamma or greek letter, but it may as against prevalence. dr. andrew pekosz has been joining us for yields -- years it feels like as we deal with this pandemic for a second year. professor of meteorologist at johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. so glad to have you on the morning where everyone is concerned about the virus again. what is your view into how serious this particular variant is? andrew: let me start by saying all the credit goes to south african scientists and scientists across europe for not

only detecting this but using social media to spread all the information they have about this. we criticize social media a lot, and this is an example of how good it can be spreading the right information. just before thanksgiving, it became obvious in south africa there was a new variant that had an abnormally high number of mutations in the spike protein, which is the target for the vaccines being distributed globally. what happened is south african public health officials realized one of their pcr tests could serve as a surrogate for this variant. if you use that data, it seems this variant is increasing at an incredibly fast pace across areas of south africa and multiple provinces. that was the significant piece that caused this to get on everybody's radar screen. >> do we have a sense of how much it evades the natural

immunity conferred by prior infection or the vaccine? dr. andrew: just theoretically. looking at the sequence, it has a number of mutations which have been predicted to evade antibody responses. it has a few that are conserved. this will not be completely able to evade vaccine induced immunity, it but it has more than other variance we have seen so far, which is what is concerning to us. anna: good morning to you. we are just getting some live coming through from beyond tech -- biontech giving us some timescales on what they are going to do next. they expect data from lab tests in the next two weeks. that may require vaccine adjustments. that gives us the sense that we will know in the next couple weeks just how well in a lab

environment the pfizer vaccine will stand up to this. then the real world will be another thing. dr. andrew: absolutely. that sounds like the right timeline. the sequence on my desk right now, trying to get my laboratory group together to do some of these tests. i am in the office today doing some of these antibody tests against other variants we have in the laboratory. in terms of the general public, this serves as an example of now is the time to go out and do something proactive. if you have not gotten your booster, get your booster. if you have not gotten your vaccine, get your vaccine. by the time this variant becomes a global threat, if it does, now is the time to act to do something to curve -- curb the impact of this variant. we have tools. if you have not been vaccinated, now is the time. if you have not gotten your booster, now is the time to give

you the best tools to fight off this variant. anna: what do you take away in terms of big learning that this variant has emerged and may be out there in various parts of the world? we know it is in hong kong, israel, and it could be elsewhere as well. the u.k. has said it is not here in the u.k. what do you take away? is this all about making sure we get better distribution of vaccines globally? that is an appealing argument to make. in south africa, our reporting suggests they do not have full vaccination, but it is not to do with a lack of vaccines. it is the lack of the right information getting to the right people to persuade them. dr. andrew: absolutely. i think it starts with testing. good testing coupled with sequencing allows for the detection of these variants early. that helps us prepare for these variants. it informs the current public

health interventions. getting yourself vaccinated is the first thing you can do. it may be we need to reformulate a vaccine if this virus becomes dominant in the world. that can be done. we have antivirals on the way that can be utilized effectively. we have to think about these things as layered approaches to protect us from covid-19. none of them is 100% effective. combined approaches allow us to minimize the severity of this disease. this variant is going to be another test of how well we can do the things we have already learned can turn the tide on covid-19 cases. >> dr. ben carson, less than -- dr. pekosz, do you worry about a holiday surge akin to last year? dr. andrew: across the u.s., we are seeing signals of a surge before people traveled for thanksgiving. that was before we had to worry

about this variant. the data from the u.s. alone is telling us case numbers are going up. they are going up regionally. in some places, they are causing significant strain on our public health hospital infrastructure already. even without this variant being a concern for us, the u.s. cases were not doing enough to limit these cases. i am concerned we are going to see another surge of delta and the u.s. after the thanksgiving holidays. >> andrew pekosz of johns hopkins, thank you for being with us, especially with the idea you have rushed to the office to start doing lab tests yourself to get ahead of this emergent virus. what has been remarkable in markets right now, the complete retracement of rate hike expectations. we see this in the fed funds futures. the basic two-year yield, nearly

14 basis point decline to 0.5%. we have completely retraced almost an entire rate hike in one day. the idea being how much can fed officials respond on the dime to something that is still the unknown? kailey: does this give them cover to take it slow with policy when the market has been pushing them to tighten given the inflation dynamics? we are talking a 14 basis point moving the two-year yield lower today. we have taken a round-trip. i am getting dizzy. lisa: you can see that in the volatility move index, which is risk to the highest since march 2020. oil prices come crashing downward, perhaps that rejigger's inflation expectations. anna: this doing a lot to reset things in the direction the white house wants to see, more than the action we saw earlier this week. oil prices down more than 5% on

brent and wti, whether that impacts covid thinking. lisa: it is amazing to think we were talking about releasing oil from the petroleum reserve earlier this week, and now this is perhaps giving more of a lift to the biden administration's plan. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the economy, many accounts, has fully round-tripped back to full capacity. >> the supply-demand balance has prevailed. >> i don't think the forces that lead to inflation or disappearing. >> the fed is going to have to make some hard decisions aced on data that is not perfect. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: how big a difference one day makes. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i'm lisa abramowicz, alongside kailey leinz and anna edwards in london. tom ferro, john keene -- john -- jon ferro, tom keene both off. what we are looking at this morning is a market in turmoil, reassessing all of the rate hike expectations, reassessing the reopening trade